What are the Dodgers needs going into the 2019 season? We know they need a catcher. I discussed that in great length yesterday. I think they need a 2B other than CT3 or Kike’, but I know I am in the minority. I think the Dodgers need a leadoff batter. That is really not what Alex Verdugo does, but he seems the most logical…if he makes the squad, and there is no guarantee that he will. While I would prefer to have a true CF in Dodger Blue next year, the way the team is currently structured, Cody Bellinger will be in CF with Muncy and Freese platooning at 1B.
But the elephant in the room is what will Andrew do to find a RH power hitter that will make teams sorry they stack the LHSP against LAD? Manny is not coming to LA, so please forget that. Josh Donaldson is not coming to LA. Neither is A. J. Pollock or Andrew McCutcheon. The Red Sox are not going to trade JDM. So, what about hometown power RH bat Giancarlo Stanton? I know what everyone is thinking. “No way. You have lost your bloody mind. That is $270MM over the next 9 years”. The final $10MM is a buyout in the 10th year, but I get your drift. He will only be 37 when the contract runs out (before option). Plus, if Stanton does not opt out after 2020 (and he will not), the Marlins kick in $30MM. Thus, the contract is really “only” $240MM for 10 years. His AAV is $25MM. Both Harper and Machado will cost more, and probably go past age 37. Also, do not forget that the current roster includes three RH hitters that are only controlled for 2019 (Kemp, Puig, Freese), so they are going to need someone, why not Stanton?
The Yankees desperately need a LH power bat, and Bryce Harper wants more than anything to be a Yankee. It seems like a perfect fit…except he has no place to play with Stanton, Hicks, Judge, and Gardner as the 4th, and Clint Frazier as the 5th. Hicks is a switch hitter and Gardner is a lefty, but his best years are way behind him. Harper balances them, but with Stanton there for another 9 years, Judge due to cash in soon, and then to commit to 10+ with Harper, it seems like too much even for the Yankees. It is impossible to move Ellsbury’s contract, but they can move Stanton’s. Ellsbury comes off the books after 2020 and a $5MM buyout in 2021. Stanton would have to waive his no-trade clause, which he will do for the Dodgers.
For his career, Stanton has slashed .268/.358/.548/.905. He absolutely crushes LHP, slashing .297/.393/.634/1.027, and did better than that in 2018. His defense is underrated. Last year he had a 7.3 UZR with 5 DRS. Compare that to Matt Kemp and his -4.6 UZR and -9 DRS. Will he strike out a lot? Yes. Waaaaaay too much. But with those K’s you will get a 162-game average of 43 HRs and 109 RBIs.
How do the Dodgers pull this off without going over the CBT threshold? Andrew has the leverage, but Brian Cashman will be a very good adversary. Andrew must insist that NYY take Kemp. NYY would save $5MM AAV in 2019 but would then be out of the Stanton contract from then on, saving a full $25MM. Once Ellsbury is done after 2020, that is another $21MM free. They will have more than enough to pay for Harper. I was originally thinking something along the lines of what they gave to Miami, Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. My original thought was Kemp, Edwin Uceta, and one of Omar Estevez/Drew Jackson/Errol Robinson. But I covet Chad Green. NYY is going to need pitching (LHSP), so one year of Alex Wood might be something for them to consider. They only need him for one year to allow Justus Sheffield to fully develop, as well as Jonathan Loaisiga and Albert Abreu. They will need another reliever (preferably LHRP), thus I would include Scott Alexander.
Therefore, my fried brain trade proposal would be Matt Kemp, Alex Wood (LHSP), Scott Alexander, (LHRP) Edwin Uceta, and one of Omar Estevez/Drew Jackson/Errol Robinson for Giancarlo Stanton and Chad Green. The Dodgers would save approximately $4MM in AAV which the Yankees can handle. The Yankees would also get the LHSP for one year. They could then sign JA Happ (2-3 years) and pass on the far more expensive Patrick Corbin. Or they could put a reasonable package together for James Paxton or even Corey Kluber. And they could trade Sonny Gray for another reliever.
This would then allow LAD to move Puig for prospects or relief. The Marlins have exactly 2 LH bats on their proposed 25-man roster; Derek Dietrich and JT Riddle. OF Magnerius Sierra is still not ready. I know Bums keeps wanting to move Puig to Miami (never happen), but Mattingly would love to have Joc. Therefore, I would propose Joc and Brock Stewart for Jose Urena and a mid tier prospect, and I would convert Urena back to a reliever. Yes, Urena is a gamble, but so was Brandon Morrow and Joe Blanton. Who says he will not be a RH version of Brad Hand (another Miami reject). His fastball is picking up velo (96.2), and if he can concentrate on his fastball and slider (off-speed – 86.7), he has two varying plus pitches. He can still show the change, but not for a strike. I like the gamble, but then again, I am a Kenny Rogers fan.
The lineup could look like the following:
Alex Verdugo – RF
JT – 3B
Corey Seager – SS
Giancarlo Stanton – LF
Cody Bellinger – CF
CT3 – 2B
Muncy/Freese – 1B
Barnes/Farmer – C (or a 1 year stop gap FA catcher).
Pitcher
OF Reserves – Andrew Toles/Kike’ Hernandez
Check out that L-R-L-R-L-R order
Starting Pitching
Walker Buehler
Clayton Kershaw
Rich Hill
Hyun-jin Ryu
Kenta Maeda/Ross Stripling/Julio Urias (start out at OKC)
Relief Pitching
Ross Stripling/Kenta Maeda
Caleb Ferguson
Tony Cingrani
Pedro Baez
Dylan Floro
Jose Urena
Chad Green
Kenley Jansen
Jesen Therrien would come up in June and replace one of the RHRP. Josh Fields has another option, so he could start the season in OKC as well or can be traded for a like kind top AA LHRP.
Urias would start in OKC and be in a position to come to LA for an injured starter (bound to happen). Ross Stripling and Caleb Ferguson would be the Andrew Miller type to come in at any time to face the best of the lineup (and emergency starter). Cingrani would be the loogy. Urena, Baez, and Floro would be 7th, with Chad Green the setup to the closer, Kenley Jansen.
I guarantee that Andrew will find some AAAA OF just in case. Connor Joe/Edwin Rios/Matt Beaty could all play OF in a pinch, as could Tim Locastro. The Dodgers have depth at every position, plus get that middle of the order RH bat they need. They eliminate most of the OF and pitching logjam, and do not block their future…Lux, Smith, Ruiz, Santana, May, Gonsolin. And plenty in reserve if they need that trade deadline pickup. And they would drop well below their CBT threshold. As I have described the scenarios above, they could drop $20.7M in payroll, and be more than $30MM below the CBT threshold. What’s not to like (except maybe from the Dodgers, Yankees, and Marlins fans). I think that the return for Stanton is comparable to what they gave up, plus he has a no-trade and he is not going to opt out. The Dodgers are NYY’s best bet to get out from the contract. I may be short changing on the Chad Green side, but being a LHRP, Scott Alexander would probably fit in better with Yankee Stadium. They are both controlled through 2022. But if it takes more, then I am sure that Andrew will not give away a top tier prospect. This whole thing is contingent on NYY taking Matt Kemp. The Dodgers will have enough next year for Arenado, Rendon, JDM, or Sale, or nobody if they so choose.
I can hear Dodgerrick now telling us that no way would the braintrust even consider Giancarlo Stanton. Rick, you would be undoubtedly correct, but I was having a brain freeze and feeling sorry for myself because my beloved Trojans just suck!!! So, I went with something that will hopefully get the conversation started before the Tuesday 40 man set date and Thanksgiving. Hopefully there will be some activity (if not LAD then any team) before the Winter Meetings that start 3 weeks from today.
Finally, congratulations to you Rudy for your Bruins victory over my hapless Trojans. My only solace is that hopefully USC will finally get a real College Football Coach, and not a Western Kentucky reject.
Now try not to be as rude to this proposal as those commenters on MLBTR.
UPDATED FOR PROJECTED PAYROLL
| PROJECTED LOS ANGELES DODGERS PAYROLL | ||||
| Projected Salaries | ||||
| As of | ||||
| 18-Nov-18 | Change | Revised | ||
| Under Contract | ||||
| Clayton Kershaw | $ 31.000 | $ 31.000 | ||
| Matt Kemp | 20.000 | (20.000) | – | |
| Hyun-jin Ryu | 17.900 | 17.900 | ||
| Rich Hill | 16.000 | 16.000 | ||
| Kenley Jansen | 16.000 | 16.000 | ||
| Justin Turner | 16.000 | 16.000 | ||
| David Freese | 4.500 | 4.500 | ||
| Kenta Maeda | 3.125 | 3.125 | ||
| Arbitration (Per MLBTR) | ||||
| Yasiel Puig | 11.300 | (11.300) | – | |
| Alex Wood | 9.000 | (9.000) | – | |
| Joc Pederson | 4.300 | (4.300) | – | |
| Chris Taylor | 3.200 | 3.200 | ||
| Enrique Hernandez | 3.200 | 3.200 | ||
| Josh Fields | 2.800 | 2.800 | ||
| Tony Cingrani | 2.700 | 2.700 | ||
| Corey Seager | 2.600 | 2.600 | ||
| Tom Koehler | 2.000 | (2.000) | – | |
| Pedro Baez | 1.800 | 1.800 | ||
| Yimi Garcia | 0.900 | (0.900) | – | |
| Erik Goeddel | 0.900 | (0.900) | – | |
| Zac Rosscup | 0.900 | (0.900) | – | |
| Player Control/40 Man | ||||
| Scott Alexander | ||||
| Austin Barnes | ||||
| Cody Bellinger | ||||
| Walker Buehler | ||||
| JT Chargois | ||||
| Kyle Farmer | ||||
| Caleb Ferguson | ||||
| Dylan Floro | ||||
| Rocky Gale | ||||
| Tim Locastro | ||||
| Max Muncy | ||||
| Dennis Santana | ||||
| Brock Stewart | ||||
| Ross Stripling | ||||
| Andrew Toles | ||||
| Julio Urias | ||||
| Pat Venditte | ||||
| Incoming Via Trade | ||||
| Giancarlo Stanton | 25.000 | 25.000 | ||
| Jose Urena | 3.600 | 3.600 | ||
| Chad Green | – | |||
| Matt Kempt to San Diego | 3.500 | 3.500 | ||
| Kenta Maeda Incentives | 3.000 | 3.000 | ||
| Club Control | 1.725 | 1.725 | ||
| 40 Man Players – Minors | 2.250 | 2.250 | ||
| Estimated Player Benefits | 14.500 | 14.500 | ||
| Current Estimated Payroll | 195.100 | (20.700) | 174.400 | |
| Change to CBT Threshold | 10.900 | 20.700 | 31.600 | |
| CBT Threshold | $ 206.000 | $ – | $ 206.000 | |
Discussion (85)
Disagree, not disagreeable
When exactly is the deadline tomorrow? Is there a time?
I think AC wrote about Gomes. The Indians starters are equally enticing….
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Indians drawing significant trade interest in catcher Yan Gomes as well as SPs, sources tell The Athletic. Gomes earning $7M in 2019 with $9M club option for ‘20, $11M opt for ‘21. Rival exec says CLE “scrambling to get young players.” Perez and Haase only other Cs on roster.
Interesting article about the Dodgers’ payroll
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/projecting-payrolls-los-angeles-dodgers.html
Regarding the Trout trade proposal above, I suppose the Angels might trade Trout and Pujols to the Dodgers for Urias and Bellinger if Harper already agreed to sign with them. I wouldn’t make that trade and i don’t think the Dodgers would either.
I love reading Yankee fans comments. Last week Sheffield was an untouchable. Today he is overrated.
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Dodger comp – Dustin May/Jordan Sheffield/Donovan Casey. Even with that, NYY was still higher ranked. Justus Sheffield was NYY #1, MLB #4 LH pitching prospect, and #31 overall prospect. Dustin May is Dodgers #3 (#1 pitcher), and not in the top ten, but is #71 overall.
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I do not blame Houston for not including Forest Whitley. He is considered a can’t miss untouchable #1 in the rotation starting pitcher. The same was said about Julio Urias. Time will tell.
It has been rumored that Gregorius could be non-tendered.
I watched Paxton a lot on the tube up here in Oregon and see him as a good #2/#3. Which piece of the Mariners is next to be dealt?
How did the Yankees do it? They surrendered their top pitching prospect, Justus Sheffield, plus two other prospects. Is that something the Dodgers would be willing to do?
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Paxton has been good, but by no means is he a star. I haven’t seen him pitch, but nothing about his career jumps out at me. I’d be wary about giving up top shelf talent to get him.
Paxton to Yankee’s. How do the Yank’s do it all the time and we are the freaking Dodger’s shopping in the discount aisle?
All I have hope is that Harper is signed for a better deal.
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But at least I have hope?
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WAIT.
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I haven’t seen the team say “over and over” they are going to exceed the CBT threshold. Have I missed something? I don’t think I even saw them say they were trying to get under it, when it was obvious they were.
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PS: Totally agree with your Dombroski take above.
If Puig can play 3B, maybe Kemp can!
IDK about a trade for Stanton, but in any event, Dodgers NEED to do something to be better against LHP. While we all remember 2016, when the Dodgers were the worst in all of MLB against LHP in almost all offensive stats, they were not quite as bad in 2018 but notice how the elite LHP of Boston and how they handled Dodgers with ease in the WS. But then again, FWI, in the past 2 WS combined (12 games total) our wonderful pitching staff gave up 23 HR’s! Besides other factors such as a lack of total offense, it didn’t help that pitching could not keep the ball in the yard and was a huge reason, among others for those WS losses.
No new outfielders please, we need to trade at least 2 (for value) as is, plus move Kemp (at a loss). If we can do that perhaps Stanton, with a major Yankee discount.
I am of the firm belief that Friedman will not sign a catcher who is not a good framer!
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PERIOD!
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I was all in for Trading Puig for Stanton BEFORE Stanton’s big deal. If the Yanks take Kemp and Wood, that covers Stanton for 2019 and there are 8 more years at $30 million per.
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If the Yankees trade Stanton they can afford Harper. I would trade Kemp, Wood and Maeda Straightup for Stanton. I could live with that!
Dodgers aren’t going to trade for Stanton and the Yanks aren’t going to trade him.
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Puig isn’t ever going to play 3B.
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Angels aren’t going to trade Trout and if they do it won’t be to the Dodgers.
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Mets aren’t going to trade Syndergaard for spare parts.
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If you wouldn’t do it if you were the other team’s GM, why would they do it?
AC, if the Dodgers need a CF and right-handed slugger why not trade for Trout? Trade Urias, Keibert Ruiz, Dennis Santana, Puig, and Alex Wood for Trout. Seems fair.
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Anaheim isn’t a contender. They’re considering a rebuild.
Stanton’s contact is so awful, I can’t imagine a front office with any value-weighting would take it on.
A lot of Yankee fans want Stanton to go, because he didn’t do much in the post season, except strike out.
Does that sound familiar?
I think the Yankees may have to add more balance to their line up like we need to do too, in order to keep up with the Red Sox, and the Astro’s.
Because decent pitching can shut the Yankee’s lineup down much like our line up, although the Yankees have far more talented players then we do in our line up, at this time.
I think Stanton would probably do a lot better in the National League.
But if we added Stanton, we would have to eliminate more then one all or nothing hitter, in our line up.
And that should be at second base.
Kike is not good when runners are in scoring position, and we can’t depend on Taylor in these situations, because he strikes out way way, to much.
I wrote way twice, because Taylor struck out almost as much as Stanton did this year, and that is obscene, even in this strike out period in baseball today.
We can’t depend on either Taylor or Kike in these situations in games, let alone, in high leverage situations.
And that has been an ongoing problem with this team, and that is why we can’t continue to have this same lineup of players on this team.
Because it isn’t bright to have an offense that depends on HRs so much to score, because even subpar pitchers have good days on the mound, at times.
And that is enough to stop our current lineup of players, let alone a top pitcher, that isn’t having a good day, but knows how to pitch, when they don’t have their good stuff.
We hit a lot of HRs, but we are terrible when runners are in scoring position.
And hitters have more instances in games, that it is easier to just put the ball in play, or get a single to score a run, then hit one out.
Because almost all pitchers pitch much tougher, when runners are on base, and especially in scoring position.
Creative thinking – thank you for stirring the pot!
Thinking about moving pieces is fun until something moves and then we can then say, “yay or boo!”
Update on Suzuki – 2 years $10MM. $4MM in 2019 and $6MM in 2020. Typical Nats contract…push as much back as possible. That is a lot for a 35 year old catcher with no real defensive or framing skills. It would appear that Ramos is asking for much much more. It looks like Spencer Kieboom now has a mentor.
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As far as Grandal, I still think that the potential teams in play will be Atlanta, Houston, LAA, NYM. Lucroy may now be heading back to Oakland. It was a good situation for both, and Lucroy will help Oakland bring Sean Murphy along slowly.
Interesting read on Joc https://dodgers.mlblogs.com/joc-pedersons-2018-improvement-might-be-even-better-than-you-remember-789c5d6273c0
AC
It is definitely the coach with USC!
That team doesn’t seem like it is organized well.
At least this loss won’t be in vain, because that coach has to go!
Interesting about Suzuki; that’s 1 less option for us and 1 less option for Grandal
As far as Stanton, I’ve also thought we could get him from NY, but on the cheap. We have the leverage, so have them pay some of his salary every year, like we had to do for Kemp and so many others. BUT, I put Stanton in LF, and keep Puig. Not sure why everyone is ready to run him out of town, but Puig learned how to come up big in the postseason, much more so than most of his choking teammates. I think Puig showed growth and maturity, and I’d predict he has a really good 2019. I’m not ready to see that happen in someone else’s uniform.
Stanton, Verdugo, Puig is my outfield in this scenario. Belly, Muncy/CT3/Kike/Steve Sax , Seager, Turner is my infield.
Okay, I just traded for Noah Syndergaard and gave up Wood among others.
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Now why not try to trade Hill for Chad Green. Yanks and Dodgers can figure out any other players needed to make this happen without having to keep some of Hill’s payroll which would make this proposal much less attractive.
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Kershaw, Buehler, Syndergaard, Ryu, Maeda with depth coming from May, Urias, Stewart, Santana.
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Jansen, Green, Fergussen, Cingrani, Baez, Fioro. Stripling, Alexander
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Dodgers reduce payroll by Puig, Wood, Hill or about $36M.
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Might augment the 2019 season with mid-season call-ups including Will Smith and Lux.
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Go with pitching and defense. It’s not like Seager, Turner, Bellinger, Pederson, Kemp, Verdugo, Toles (although I suspect that he will be included in a trade with Puig), won’t score enough runs.
PROJECTED PAYROLL UPDATE ABOVE.
Nats have agreed to a two year contract with Kurt Suzuki. Terms not yet disclosed.
Trade Wood, Pederson and Kike or Taylor for Abreu and Sign Harper. Kemp is your 4th Outfielder,. Done. One platoon at C only.
This is a Championship worthy lineup and it’s L/R cuz apparently that’s important to some…
Corey Seager – SS – L
JT – 3B – R
Harper – LF – L
Abreu – 1B – R
Bellinger – CF – L
Puig – RF – R
Muncy – 2B – L
Barnes/Farmer – C (or a 1 year stop gap FA catcher).
Bench – Other catcher, Kike or Taylor, Freese, Kemp, Toles. Verdugo rides the jet back and forth until Puig and Kemp are gone next year.
One year over the cap, then you can dump Kemp and QO Puig and get that draft pick. The following year sign Arrenado, move Justin to 1B. Belli finally plays 1B the year after that.
The only other move is to sign Hererra to setup Kenley. Now we have a complete team.
If you think the Dodgers may have a tough contract battle ahead here is an excerpt from the Off season Outlook for the Giants from MLBTR.
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Guaranteed Contracts
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• Evan Longoria, 3B: $73.166MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
• Johnny Cueto, SP: $71MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22M club option for 2022)
• Buster Posey, C: $67.2MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
• Brandon Belt, 1B: $48MM through 2021
• Brandon Crawford, SS: $45MM through 2021
• Jeff Samardzija, SP: $39MM through 2020
• Mark Melancon, RP: $28MM through 2020 (didn’t exercise opt-out clause)
• Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM in 2019 (Giants exercised club option)
• Tony Watson, RP: $6MM through 2020 (Watson can exercise player option for a $500K buyout to opt out of contract after 2019 season)
• Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $555K through 2019 (Giants exercised club option; Red Sox responsible for the rest of the remaining $22.445MM owed on Sandoval’s contract through 2019)
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Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
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• Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM
• Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM
• Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM
• Hunter Strickland (3.163) – $2.5MM
• Gorkys Hernandez (3.013) – $1.6MM
• Non-tender candidates: Panik, Hernandez
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The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR. That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season.
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Good luck Farhan Zaidi.
I was in Palm Springs over the weekend for a wedding that was overrun with Trojan fans.
Hopefully they enjoyed their dessert of humble pie. There is only one time in the year that I root for SC and that is when they play Notre Dame (sorry peterj). As far as Stanton coming to L.A,, I would be more than happy if that were the case. I think he would shine here and bring some real star power to an already star-filled L.A. sports scene.
AC
What are your thoughts on Dombrowski and his tactics?
As a big Sox fan, I wasn’t a big fan of his trading prospects. But who can argue with the results.
When I saw the headline for yourpost AC, I assumed that Mark was going to be the author. You fooled me. Good one.
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I want a power righty bat for the Dodgers and Stanton would qualify. But I think it is much more likely that Puig will be traded to Miami than Stanton to the Dodgers. Puig has reverse splits so he would serve as a needed lefty bat for Miami.
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I suppose there is a chance that the Mets would be interested in Puig but I don’t think Puig would be happy there. I like trading Dodgers to places where they would like to play. The Mets may be willing to trade Noah Syndergaard
and they need hitting and replacement pitching. Wood and Puig or Muncy, Wood , CT3, and White (since Puig is going to Miami) 😉 ) might start the conversation.
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The three players I would like to trade are CT3, Puig, and Muncy.
And before I forget, which is prevalent these days, have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving and diets be damned…
I said yesterday that Friedman has many decisions to make before ST and I have no idea what the Dodgers will do so your trade proposals make sense, but I’m hoping Taylor or Hernandez is traded, Muncy at first I don’t think will be an answer. If the Dodgers made the trade for Stanton then I would rather the Dodgers keep Puig and play him in CF were he has played 67 games, ( he is not as good as Bellinger but he moves Bellinger back to first) and move Verdugo to RF.
Let’s see what happens.
Some interesting food for thought! I wouldn’t mind having Stanton on the team, hometown boy and all. Will be interesting to see if the Dodgers acquire a right handed hitter that can mash.
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Personally, I would like them to do as you suggested, acquire a true center fielder, move Bellinger back to First base and leave him there. Obtain a true lead off hitter (if he’s a center fielder or 2b, all the better). If we keep the team primarily as it is, I would have CT3 and Joc platoon in left. Kike and Muncy can platoon at 2nd (though not the preferred solution there) and I’m not sure how to construct the rest of the team. I’ll nominate you as GM for the interim and go and pull off the trades that are needed.
I always enjoy the “out-of-the-box thinking” in this blog and I’d love to see the Stanton deal done, but I think this one is to ballsey for either Cashman or Friedman. Keep thinking folks! This is what makes the off-season bearable.
AC – Rudeness here, I think not… Especially from me… It’s all food for thought!! When I know you’re on a roll, I sneak in my PT, drop a med and dig in…
We’ll see you Saturday for sure.. Rudy, keep the faith with the Chipster… When he gets to recruit, Katie bar the door…
A well thought out trade proposal with Yankees and Marlins. I have never been a Stanton supporter, but he does have star power. What I do like about the line up is that most starters would start each day. I absolutely hate the mix and match line ups.