We all know that the one thing that the Dodgers must do is to find another catcher. The Dodgers gambled that Yasmani Grandal would not accept the QO, and won this time. They will get a supplemental pick between the 2nd and 3rd round, somewhere in the 80’s. That will be 4 picks before the third round. At the very least, they should get enough pool funds to be able to pay a first round pick this year. It is way too early to look into any possibilities.
I know most want the Dodgers to make a trade to get JT Realmuto, but if Atlanta or Houston want him, they will outbid the Dodgers. So, we should look into other catcher possibilities. I have chosen to create four groups: Current year FA, 2019-2020 FA, Boston Red Sox Threesome, and Other Potential Trades.
There are five FA catchers that I do believe that the Dodgers will consider. Kurt Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Matt Wieters, and Wilson Ramos.
Kurt Suzuki is heavily rumored to be heading back to Oakland for the third time. He was originally drafted by Oakland in the 2nd round of 2004. He is highly thought of by Billy Beane and is considered a potential coach/manager after his playing career is over. While I like Kurt, I do not think he will be a Dodger in 2019.
Wilson Ramos will require at least a 2-year deal and probably in the $10-$12MM range. MLBTradeRumors has him to the Astros at 3 years $36MM. Knowing that they paid Brian McCann $34MM for two years, 3 years of Ramos at $36MM will seem a bargain. I think the Astros like Ramos at his projection more than Grandal at his projected contract, and without having to surrender a 2nd round draft pick.
With Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz on the cusp of becoming ML catchers, the Dodgers are looking for a one year stop gap at catcher. Will Scott Boras allow Matt Wieters to accept a one-year deal? Jonathan Lucroy at one time was the most sought-after catcher in MLB. Lucroy is considered an offense first catcher, but had respectable catcher defensive metrics. He allowed 10 passed balls and a 30.1 caught steal percentage. He also led MLB with 83 assists for catchers. Finally in this grouping, there is Martin Maldonado, a defense first catcher. This past year, Maldonado was an enigma. He allowed 13 passed balls, but threw out 48.6% of would be base stealers in 111 games started at catcher.
The Dodgers might also consider trading for one of the catchers who can become a FA in 2020. The catchers I can see the Dodgers considering in this group will be Alex Avila, Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, and Yan Gomes. The prediction for Austin Romine is all over the map. Some have him being non-tendered while others see him as a “just in case” catcher because of the questions surrounding Gary Sanchez. With a $2.0MM projected arbitration figure, I cannot see Romine being a non-tender. That just seems totally illogical.
Alex Avila has one year remaining on his contract with the DBacks. He will earn $4.25MM in 2019, with an AAV of $4.125MM. Avila is adequate defensively but is less than anemic offensively. I do not see him as an option. The DBacks would love to dump that contract.
Francisco Cervelli is in the final year of a 3 year $31MM contract which will pay him $11.5MM in 2019, with a $10.33MM AAV. Cervelli is one of the more complete catchers who earned a 2.1 WAR and a .3 dWAR. The reason that Cervelli is even considered available is because of the emergence of Elias Diaz. Pittsburgh would love to move Cervelli’s contract, but unless the Dodgers can dump $11MM in other contracts, Cervelli will not be a Dodger.
Yan Gomes is in the final year of a 6 year $23MM contract that still has 2 team options. Gomes will earn $7MM in 2019, but with an extremely favorable $3.833MM AAV. Gomes has 2 option years that he can earn $9.0MM in 2020 and $11MM in 2021 each with a $1MM buyout. Gomes had a 2.6 WAR for 2018, with a 1.0 dWAR. He is a very capable catcher with a favorable contract. If Smith or Ruiz are ready for 2020, a $1MM buyout is not onerous, and with the amount of salary loss the Dodgers are anticipating in 2020, the $9MM option is acceptable if they neither are considered ready. Gomes should be considered an outstanding alternative as the Dodgers backstop in 2019.
I included the three Boston catchers only because I cannot see them keeping all three for next year. None of Blake Swihart, Sandy Leon, or Christian Vazquez are ideal or even covetable. All three had a negative WAR, and only Leon had a respectable dWAR (.9) but had a horrible offensive year. Blake Swihart is the most likely to be moved. One of the three should be considered only as a last resort. This would be a weekend before the season starts decision.
There are six other catchers that do merit some consideration. Three are still under team control and pre-arbitration; Omar Narvaez (ChiSox), Jorge Alfaro (Phillies), and Mitch Garver (Twins). All three are maturing defensively and all three seem comfortable offensively. All three teams believe they are in contention and are willing to spend this winter. These three are extremely doubtful but should be considered depending on the cost in prospects. They should at least be on the radar.
Tucker Barnhart is in the 2nd year of a 4 year $16MM contract with a team option of $7.5MM for 2022 with a $.5MM buyout. The Reds signed Barnhart after Devin Mesoraco got injured and proved to be a better fit than Devin. Mesoraco was traded to NY Mets in 2018 for Matt Harvey that worked out well for Cincy. Cincy believes they will be contenders by 2020, and Barnhart will be a major player for them. The Reds have capable backup in Curt Casali, but only have one marginal catching prospect in their top 30 prospects (Chris Oakey #27). Very doubtful that Tucker will be available.
Tyler Flowers just signed a one-year contract extension for $4MM with Atlanta. Kurt Suzuki was Flowers backup in 2018, but he is a FA this year, and as stated above is heavily considering a return to Oakland. Their top catching prospect is at least 2 years out (William Contreras #13, brother of Cubs’ Wilson Contreras), and their closest top 30 prospect is marginal at best (Alex Jackson #27). I know they are looking for a significant upgrade to make Flowers their backup. Therefore, it seems highly unlikely that Flowers will be made available, but he will be considered.
My personal favorite remains Salvy Perez. I only bring him up in this discussion because it has been mentioned that Perez is available, even if unlikely. I know some consider Mike Zunino to be superior, but IMO, Salvy Perez is the best defensive catcher in the game. Yadi Molina held that title for many years, but Father Time is catching up to him quickly. I have stated ad nauseum that I consider defense highly when looking at players who may be available. That is especially true with up the middle defense.
While some consider Will Smith closer to MLB ready, Keibert Ruiz is considered the superior prospect. Ruiz is from Valencia, Venezuela as is Salvy Perez, Wilson Ramos and Francisco Cervelli. Sandy Leon (Maracaibo) and Omar Narvaez (Maracay) are also from Venezuela. I only bring that up because I find it interesting the number of catchers from Venezuela. 17 year old Diego Cartaya is from Maracay, Venezuela.
| Player | Age | PA | Slash Line | PB | CS % | dWar | WAR | ||
| Jonathan Lucroy | 33 | 454 | .241/.291/.325/.616 | 10 | 30.1% | -0.3 | -0.7 | ||
| Martin Maldonado | 32 | 404 | .225/.276/.351/.627 | 13 | 48.6% | 0.8 | 0.5 | ||
| Wilson Ramos | 31 | 416 | .306/.358/487/.845 | 8 | 29.2% | 0.4 | 2.7 | ||
| Kurt Suzuki | 35 | 388 | .271/.332/.444/.776 | 3 | 19.4% | 0.6 | 2.1 | ||
| Matt Wieters | 33 | 271 | .238/.330/.374/.704 | 2 | 37.0% | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | Age | PA | Slash Line | PB | CS % | dWar | WAR | Contract | AAV | ||||
| Alex Avila | 32 | 234 | .165/.299/.304/.603 | 3 | 30.0% | 0.5 | -0.1 | $4.25MM | $4.125MM | ||||
| Francisco Cervelli | 33 | 404 | .259/.378/.431/.809 | 8 | 39.0% | 0.3 | 2.6 | $11.5MM | $10.33MM | ||||
| Austin Romine | 30 | 265 | .244/.295/.417/.7152 | 5 | 26.2% | 1 | 1.4 | $2.MM | $2.MM | Arbitration | |||
| Yan Gomes | 31 | 435 | .266/.313/.449/.762 | 6 | 29.0% | 1 | 2.6 | $7.0MM | $3.833MM | ||||
| 2020 Option – $9MM ($1MM Buyout) | |||||||||||||
| 2021 Option – $11MM ($1MM Buyout) | |||||||||||||
| Player | Age | PA | Slash Line | PB | CS % | dWar | WAR | ||
| Christian Vazquez | 28 | 269 | .207/.257/.283/.540 | 11 | 37.1% | 0.2 | -0.8 | ||
| Blake Swihart | 27 | 207 | .229/.285/.328/.613 | 0 | 26.3% | -0.4 | -0.3 | ||
| Sandy Leon | 30 | 288 | .177/.232/.279/.511 | 13 | 25.7% | 0.9 | -0.5 |
| Player | Age | PA | Slash Line | PB | CS % | dWar | WAR | Contract | AAV | FA | ||
| Omar Narvaez | 26 | 322 | .275/.366/.429/.795 | 12 | 24.1% | 0.1 | 1.9 | Team Control | 2023 | |||
| Jorge Alfaro | 25 | 377 | .262/.324/.407/.731 | 10 | 26.3% | 0.2 | 1.2 | Team Control | 2024 | |||
| Mitch Garver | 27 | 335 | .268/.335/.414/.749 | 9 | 18.3% | -0.2 | 0.9 | Team Control | 2024 | |||
| Tyler Flowers | 33 | 296 | .227/.341/.359/.700 | 8 | 22.8% | 0.1 | 0.6 | $4MM | $4MM | 2020 | ||
| Salvy Perez | 29 | 544 | .235/.274/.439/.713 | 4 | 48.1% | 1.5 | 2.4 | $11.2MM | $10.5MM | 2022 | ||
| Tucker Barnhart | 28 | 522 | .248/.328/.372/.700 | 4 | 23.9% | 0.9 | 0.9 | $2.937MM | $4MM | 2022 Option | ||
| 2022 Option – $7.5MM ($.5MM Buyout) | ||||||||||||
With all of the moaning and groaning about Yasmani Grandal, based on the above, the Dodgers are going to find it very difficult to replace him. Grandal hit .241/.349/.466/.815, 9 PB and a 27.8 CS%, a 3.3 WAR and a dWAR of .6. If the Dodgers can sign Wilson Ramos for 2 years at a reasonable rate, he would be my first choice. But I see him as a more logical Houston candidate.
Kurt Suzuki should be targeted, but he will be fiercely sought after by Oakland. Lucroy made $6.5MM last year with Oakland, and Suzuki made $3.5MM with Atlanta. Oakland has highly respected prospect, Sean Murphy, who could stand one year being mentored by the veteran, and Suzuki’s contract should not be an impediment.
If Salvy Perez cannot be acquired, I would concentrate on Yan Gomes. He is more than adequate as a catcher teamed with Austin Barnes. His AAV is more than reasonable and has two reasonable options with a very affordable buyout. Gomes has done a very good job with the high-quality Cleveland pitching staff.
Francisco Cervelli is too expensive. If (BIG IF) Austin Romine is non-tendered, I would look at picking him up with a $2MM expected arbitration figure. If Matt Wieters is reasonable he should be considered. But with Scott Boras as his agent, that does not seem logical. Martin Maldonado should be considered as a last resort. He has a tremendous arm, but he is aging and he does not move very well anymore behind the plate.
If the Dodgers cannot get Perez, Gomes, Suzuki, Wieters, or Maldonado, then they might have to start the season with Rocky Gale as Barnes’ backup with Will Smith at the ready. I would be willing to live with Smith at the ML level if his confidence will not be shaken with failure as he is bound to experience. While I like his bat and his clutch persona, I still do not believe that Kyle Farmer is a ML catcher. More importantly, the Dodgers FO does not consider him a ML catcher.
Good luck to Andrew to find this very important prospective member of the LAD roster.
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
There was no bigger champion of Yasmani Grandal than me. He never quite lived up to my expectations, but make no mistake about it:
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#1 – He is one of the the Top 10, most likely Top 5 Catchers (Overall) in baseball.
#2 – He threw out 35% of baserunners who tried to steal for his career.
#3 – He is the #1 pitch framer in baseball.
#4 – Starting in 2014, here’s how his pitching staffs finished in the league in ERA: 2014 (SD)- #4, 2015 – #5, 2016 – #5, 2017 – #2, 2018 – #2.
#5 – He was #1 among catchers in OB% in 2018, #2 in HR, #6 in RBI, #2 in OPS, barely behind JT REal.
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He will be missed more than you can imagine. That said, it was time to move on…
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Fine synopsis of what is out there. I don’t care who they get I am just glad it is not grandal. I would take Cervelli but too costly. I guess part of the decision will be whether they intend to go with Barnes as a primary catcher or the backup. I don’t believe they will make a big splash with money in free agency or prospects in trades. It will be another Friedman blue light special. A final word on grandal. I was for the trade which brought him, I had high hopes for him. I think he did a good job for the Dodgers he just never reached the elite status I had hoped for. He has one fantastic month during the year when he is red hot. He should never have been batting 3-5 in the lineup but I blame Roberts for that. My biggest frustration with him was his continuous striking out or hitting into double plays at the most inopportune times. However, he was better in the regular season this year and would walk at times. I just could not get past his total playoff meltdowns. I just never saw us winning a World Series with him on the roster. So I am open to anyone that Friedman picks up.
Do we need a catcher or a back-up catcher?
I think we need a catcher for one season only, with the two great prospect Catchers nearly ready.
Always liked Nick Hundley, I’d give him a one year deal.
Batted .241 with 10 HRs for SF last season. Still has some fuel in the tank.
Let Barnes back him up.
Spend the money elsewhere.
AC thank you for all that you do. I have been waiting to see a write up on possible catchers for a long time and God blessed me for being patient. Yours was excellent and more than worth waking for.
Watford – Twas a fine day for the Irish.. I was kept updated from a friend on the East coast… Rugby is an incredible sport.. Literally kick the crap out of each other for 80 minutes and then meet up at a pub and toss down a few pints…
AC
I am running out of superlatives when it comes to your pieces, but once again a very thorough, and excellent job.
Great write-up, AC. The only disagreement I would have is I believe Will Smith is the better defensive catcher and has a better chance of staying an every day catcher. I can see Ruiz being moved to another position.
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I still think Ruiz and Urias should be packaged with Joc and Alex Wood for Mike Trout. Can you imagine Trout in the same lineup as Seager, Bellinger, Turner, Verdugo, and Kemp?
The Braintrust prizes pitch framing from their catchers and won’t sign or trade for a catcher who doesn’t rate highly in that metric. Of the catchers discussed, here’s how they rate as framers per Baseball Reference.com
Grandal – T – 1
Barnes – T – 6 (out of 117 rated catchers)
Maldonado – T – 14
Gomes, Romine – T – 19
Lucroy – T – 28
Ramos, Realmuto – T – 89
Wieter – T – 97
Cervelli – T – 106
Ellis – T – 109
Sal Perez, Suzuki – T – 112
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If you consider framing important, don’t expect to see Suzuki, Perez, Cervelli, Wieter, Ramos wearing the Blue next season
During the off-season after 2016 play I said I was comfortable with Taylor as the second baseman if a reasonable trade could not be made. If the Dodgers can’t get Realmuto then I would be willing to live with Barnes as the primary catcher backed by Farmer until Smith was called up near mid-season 2019,
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Very impressive write up AC. You have produced gems this off-season. Thanks for the reads.
Very nice breakdown on the catching situation facing the Dodgers, Friedman has many decisions to make before ST, should be a very interesting winter.
Great piece AC, you spent a lot of time on that. If the team goes big on JT or anyone with a larger contract they block their prospects which is not how you save money. I think they go a safer route with a Lucroy or Weiters type although my personal preference would be JT, Ramos, Perez, Gomes. Gomes probably hits that middle sweet spot of production, contract price and term the best. They could use a trade chip here or just sign a FA, depends on how big they want to go and how close they deem their prospects.
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USC could not stop UCLA when it mattered and went down without much fight. They are a running team that struggles when behind. That win made UCLA’s season and put a smile on Chip Kelly’s face.
For awhile now I’ve been advocating (among others) a trade with KC for Merrifield AND Salvador Perez. It would take care of two of our biggest problems. In addition we would get a true leadoff hitter we haven’t had in quite awhile. For Merrifield and Perez I would give up Muncy, Joc. Kiki/Taylor, Farmer, Smith, Locastro, Stewart and Stripling.
Nice work, AC. Cervelli is the guy I’d most like to see as a Dodger on your list above. I think he would provide a discernible difference defensively and at least as good at the plate as Grandal was. Anyone with a CS% below 30 will be a target for teams to steal on. This was never one of Grandal’s strong points. With a guy like Cervelli, you could easily platoon rookies like Ruiz or Smith with him as a mentor and slowly ease them in as the starter after 2-3 years with little pressure on them.
Freidman seems definitely not a welcome back type for players he traded off. Kemp was one of those anomalies where they prayed someone would take him before the start of the 2018 season.
Excellent piece AC. One question. Why doesn’t the FO consider Farmer a viable option for the catcher position?
Darn AC… not even a bone thrown my way for the possible return of A.J…
MT, usually every time this year, my Pop would say “You can throw out all the stats for the year on our game with USC…It’s gonna be a barn burner”…
Sorry Pop… Good night Clay Helton…
Wow!
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What a overview if the State of Catching.
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I would love JD Real but he’s probably a Catcher in the Wry!