When you get to the World Series, you have a good team and no matter what, you are in position to win it. Ask the 1988 Dodgers. It seems absurd to me to blame the guy who assembled the team that got to the World Series for the loss. In 2017, they were the best team. In 2018, the Red Sox were, but does the best team always win? I think Clayton Kershaw summed it up: “We just have to play better.” Friedman got them there – it ‘s easy to say they need better players… 2% better, 8% better? What they need is for the players to play better! If you are good enough to get there, you are good enough to win. If you build a team capable of getting there, they are capable of winning.
Maybe it’s time to look at gameplanning and strategy. Rick Honeycutt has always had great pitching staffs, but it seems like those staffs get exposed in the playoffs, like the Ace of the staff has been exposed at times in the past six post-seasons. The Dodgers had a 3.38 ERA during the 2018 season while the Red Sox had a 3.75 ERA. However, during the World Series, the Red Sox improved by allowing 1.20 runs a game less (2.55) ERA, while the Dodgers went the other direction: their team ERA rose 1.47 runs a game (4.85). You might say the Dodger hitters failed to hit, but it’s pretty clear to me that a team that averages 4.85 runs a game is going to beat a team that averages 2.55 runs a game, and in the playoffs we have repeatedly seen that good pitching stops good hitting.
In 2017, the Astros and Dodgers had virtually the same ERA in the World Series (4.64 and 4.45), but the Dodgers Regular Season ERA was 3.38 (same as 2018) while the Astros team ERA for 2017 was 4.12. Again, the Dodgers ERA in the Series increased by more than a run per game. The fact that the Series went 7 games is a testament to the fact that the pitching was pretty much a “push.” This is a troubling pattern. In 2016, the Dodgers regular season ERA was 3.70 but increased to 4.59 in the playoffs. In 2015, team ERA was 3.44 and increased to 4.50 in the post-season. It was true in 2014 as well. The Dodgers 3.40 ERA in the regular season balloned to 4.76 in the post-season. 2013 was the anomaly. In the regular season, the team ERA was 3.25 while it dropped to 3.19 in the playoffs.
Of course, you can also point to the offense. The Dodgers hit .250 as a team in the regular season, only to drop to .180 in the World Series. The same thing happened in 2017, when they hit .249 in the regular season only to drop to .205 in the World Series. Is it the hitting, or the pitching? I think it’s both, but with Turner Ward gone, it appears that the Dodgers may deviate from their previous hitting approach. How much remains to be seen. Why Turner left may never be known, but I guarantee it was not “to be closer to his family.” The Dodgers have been very quiet about possible replacements and wouldn’t hazzard a guess.
Remember, the Dodgers’ front office includes Joshn Byrnes and a ton of analysts, but it also includes the following baseball people:
- David Finley
- Ismael Cruz
- Galen Carr
- Billy Gasparino
- Brandom Gomes
- Gerry Hunsicker
- Pat Corrales
- Raul Ibanez
- Jose Vizcaino
- Ralph Avila
Those guys (many are former players) all have a “voice” as to the Direction the Dodgers take, but if Friedman ignored their input, they wouldn’t be there. I am sure that a lot of options are being discussed. I can argue both sides of the Giancarlo Stanton acquisition. There are lots of reasosn “For” and lots of reasons “Against” (about $270 million of them). Personally, I think most of the improvement can come internally, but I am not against acquiring another RH POWER BAT!
Some of you wonder why I am so quick to move Puig? It’s because even though he hit’s RH, he is really a LH Hitter. He hits RH pitching but whiffs on LH pitching. Reverse Splits. I also believe Alex Verdugo will shine as the Dodgers’ Right Fielder and leadoff hitter. I have no idea if the Dodgers think that, but I suspect they do because they have been loathe to include him in any deal up until now.
Everyone (myself included) wants to dump Kemp’s salary, but it ain’t happening… unless he Dodgers take back something significant, like Stanton and his deal. But, that’s assuming the Yankees want Harper AND are willling to pay the piper for him. I’d say the odds of Stanton being a Dodgers are slim and none, but I think AC’s trade proposal is just about right. It’s just that there are too many moving parts for it to probably happen.
The Dodgers will say they are in on certain Free Agents, but they aren’t. Not really… they just want to drive up the price. Remember that three years ago, many Dodger fans were holding up the Giants (well, they did win 3 World Series) and the Diamondbacks as successful organizational models because of their free agent signings, but look at them now. Aging players, bad deals, big contracts to aging pitchers and they are in rebuild mode, The Dodgers rebuilt while winning and yes, I would love to see a big bopper coming to LA, but in reality, what I hope for is incremental improvement from the core.
Maybe there will be a trade or two… Friedman is plotting… and who knows what will happen? A free agent signing? Maybe! We never know, but we try and guess anyway. One thing is certain: Gameplanning and strategy need to be paramount. Hitting strategy needs to change and so does the pitching strategy. How many first-pitch home runs should you be willing to give up? “Effectively wild” can sometimes be better than “pounding the strike zone.” Words to ponder, Rick Honeycutt!
However, the goal is still the same: Get Back to the World Series… but win this one!
Discussion (83)
Disagree, not disagreeable
What about Hernandez and segura for kemp wood hill and maybe Pederson? Contracts are close. Hernandez for 1 year 5th starter.
AC–you know more than I do. Is there any difference in the status of jackson/santana/sopko vs. Joe? Thanks
40 man roster makeup:
22 pitchers
4 catchers
8 infielders
6 outfielders
Sorry cant link it but interesting site baseballsavant has foot speed via statcast. Out if 549 players verdugo ranked 292. #1 was Buxton and #549 was pujols!
The 45 HR at 2B for Kike’ and Muncy can only happen if some of those HRs come while they’re playing another position. In other words, 45HRs are NOT coming exclusively from 2nd base.
Crazy stat:
Team leaders in SLG%
1. Muncy .582
2. Joc .522
3. JT .518
4. Puig .494
5. Kemp .481
There’s a big part of me that wants to see this lineup complete unfinished business, but there’s no room for Puig:
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1. Verdugo RF
2. Turner 3B
3. Seager SS
4. Bellinger 1B
5. Muncy/Hernandez 2B (I believe 45 HR is possible)
6. Pederson/Kemp LF
7. Taylor CF
8. Barnes/Gomes
So the Dodgers cleared out over $4 million dollars today with those moves and added 5 minimum salary guys. More expensive guys like Yimi, Fields, and Cingrani stay on the roster for now. Those three equal about $6 million among them.
OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE
DODGERS SELECT CONTRACTS OF ALVAREZ, BEATY, RIOS, RUIZ AND SBORZ
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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today selected the contracts of right-handed pitcher Yadier Alvarez, infielder Matt Beaty, infielder Edwin Ríos, catcher Keibert Ruiz and right-handed pitcher Josh Sborz.
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Alvarez, 22, spent the majority of the 2018 campaign with Double-A Tulsa, going 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA (25 ER/48.1 IP) in 17 games (eight starts) and was also selected to the Texas League Mid-Season All-Star team. The hard-throwing right-hander also struck out 52 batters in 48.1 innings with the Drillers and limited the opposition to a .211 average. The native of Cuba, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent on July 2, 2015 by the Dodgers, has posted a 9-11 record with a 3.83 ERA in 54 career games (42 starts) over three professional seasons.
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Beaty, 25, posted a .277/.378/.406 slashline with 10 doubles, one home run and 12 RBI in 31 games with Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2018. The corner infielder saw majority of his time at first base (16 games) with the OKC Dodgers, but also played in four games at third base and four games at second base along with appearing in five games in left field. Beaty, who was a 12th round draft pick by the Dodgers in the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of Belmont University, has posted a career .309 batting average with 79 doubles, three triples, 31 home runs and 199 RBI in 342 games over four professional seasons.
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Ríos, 24, appeared in 88 games with Triple-A Oklahoma City last year and posted a .304/.355/.482 slashline with 25 doubles, 10 homers and 55 RBI. Defensively, he spent majority of the season at third base (38 games), but also saw time at first base (28 games) and in left field (17 games). In 346 career games over four professional seasons, Ríos has batted .302 with 92 doubles, 64 home runs and 235 RBI along with a .879 OPS. He was selected in the sixth round of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of Florida International University.
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Ruiz, 20, spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa and hit .268 with 14 doubles, 12 home runs and 47 RBI in 101 games. The switch-hitting backstop appeared in 86 games (85 starts) behind the plate, posting a .995 fielding percentage (4 ER/740.1 INN) and throwing out 26% of would-be base stealers (25/90). The Venezuelan native, who is ranked as the Dodgers No. 2 prospect by MLB.com, has posted a career .309/.357/.401 slashline with 67 doubles, six triples, 23 homers and 165 RBI in 302 games over four professional seasons. He was signed as a non-drafted free agent on July 20, 2014.
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Sborz, 24, split last season with Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City, combining to go 4-2 with six saves and posting a 3.88 ERA (23 ER/53.1 IP) in 46 relief appearances as he made his transition into the bullpen. The right-hander, who was selected in the Competitive Balance Round B (74th overall) of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Virginia, has appeared in 113 career games (46 starts) over four professionals seasons, going 20-17 with a 3.35 ERA and has collected nine saves.
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To create room on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers designated right-handed pitcher Erik Goeddel, left-handed pitcher Zac Rosscup and infielder/outfielder Tim Locastro for assignment, while also giving right-handed pitcher Tom Koehler his unconditional release.
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The Dodgers have a complete 40-man roster.
Padres and M’s talking Will Myers for Segura and Leake. I wouldn’t be too happy if that went down. I would rather have Segura than Realmuto. I know there isn’t as big a need but Segura could be the true table setter the Dodgers need.
Former Dodger 1st round pick Grant Holmes was added to the A’s 40 man today. He has a chance to make an appearance with the big league team this year. It is possible that Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas, and Grant Holmes will all be on the ML roster together at some point in 2019. I think the A’s believe they made a big haul on the trade of a pair of rentals, Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. I also do not think the Dodgers are complaining too much. That is a trade that seems to have helped both teams.
A couple of designated players I am sure are going to catch the eye of some. LAA Pitcher Parker Bridwell who had a good 2017 and a miserable 2018 (injured a lot). I would be surprised if he isn’t claimed. He is 27 and a good bounceback candidate.
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The second is Padres utility player, former 1st round pick (10th overall), Cory Spangenberg. He is a LH bat and has hit occasionally. His career slash line wRISP – .257/.337/.365/.702. He strikes out a lot, and has limited power. Not a bad defensive player. Last year he played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and pitched (about as well as Kike’). He is a poor team’s Kike’, and I can see SF checking into him.
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Braden Shipley was designated by the DBacks earlier, cleared waivers, and has been assigned to Reno (AAA Affiliate). I thought he had some promise when he first came up. He just has not put it together.
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Former Dodger “prospect” utility infielder Jose Miguel Fernandez was designated by the Angels. CJ Cron was designated by Tampa Bay. And in a total shock (sarcasm), the Pads designated Colin Rea. On August 1, 2016, Rea was traded by the Pads to the Marlins in a 7-8 player trade including Andrew Cashner to Marlins and Jarred Cosart, Carter Capps, and Josh Naylor to Pads. A month later he was returned to the Pads by order of MLB because he was believed to be injured at the time of the trade. He had TJ surgery later that year, and has not pitched since. Not Preller’s finest hour. He also did the same with Pomerantz to Boston, but Boston kept Pomerantz.
No big surprises. Stewart lives another day. Maybe he and Kershaw are both in “Add MPH Camp” together. Now, let’s hope we aren’t raided too hard.
I did not see Tim Locastro being designated. I hope he gets picked up. I guess Andrew and Co. believes Chargois and Garcia are still worthy, and provide more value than does Locastro. Well they are part of that deep and talented bullpen Andrew keeps telling us about. I think there is about a week before the players need to be tendered contracts. That leaves a little time for Brock Stewart. There is no way he is going to make the 25 man out of ST. They should try to get something for him.
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I also missed on Matt Beaty. I thought that that Connor Joe might have been protected before Beaty. I wrote that Beaty was a possibility but not a given. I am happy for. I think he has a good bat, and if he can land somewhere defensively, he is a keeper. I know DC likes him as well. The other 4 were no-brainers, and I picked them early on.
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I still think Koehler might get a minor league contract and a Spring invite.
Per MLB traderumors: “The Dodgers announced today that they have designated three players: righty Erik Goeddel, lefty Zac Rosscup, and infielder/outfielder Tim Locastro. Meanwhile, the club released right-hander Tom Koehler, who signed with the club as a free agent last winter but was arbitration-eligible.
Those moves helped create space for new additions to the 40-man roster. Notable prospects Keibert Ruiz and Yadier Alvarez were selected, along with infielders Matt Beaty and Edwin Ríos as well as right-hander Josh Sborz
Yan4joc?
I would consider that deal Mark proposed, even if it is between the Dodgers and the Dodgers (go back and re-read it). Does that mean that the Dodgers end up with all the players involved?
Does that deal lower the cost for Segura alone? Even though I consider Segura the superior and more versatile player, I wonder why the Dodgers would prefer a trade when there is a solid second baseman available for cash only, namely DJ LeMahieu.
I would be very wary of trading Puig. I got the feeling at the end of the season that he’s becoming more reliable in the clutch, and that he is on the verge of producing consistently superior power numbers. And although I haven’t checked his splits prior to the last two years, I am confident that the reverse splits are not going to be a long term problem.
for the shocking news of the day … per agent, Dodgers selected the contract of venezuelan catcher Keibert Ruiz from Tulsa.
Per JP Morosi, the Dodgers have strong interest in JT Realmuto. It appears that the two most likely teams are the Dodgers and Astros. The Marlins do not want to trade Realmuto within the division, so Atlanta appears to be out.
Both LAD and Houston have 4 top 100 prospects. But I cannot see the Astros losing either of Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. That would leave Yordan Alvarez and Josh James as the two most likely to headline a deal. I think the Dodgers top 100 untouchable would be Lux, with May close. But I think Ruiz and Verdugo would be something the Fish would consider. But I would try to change Verdugo to Joc, and two of Edwin Rios, Yadier Alvarez or Omar Estevez. If it took all three so be it. The Fish want a LH bat to drop in the lineup now, and Joc fits that role. So does Yordan Alvarez (and Verdugo). The Fish may prefer Alvarez (or Verdugo) because he would be a rookie, The one advantage that LAD has over Houston is that the Dodgers would be including a top rated catcher.
OK, Dodgers trade Wood, Verdugo, Wong, White, Alvarez, Floro, Rios and Uceta to the M’s for Diaz and Segura.
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Would you do that?
There is no reason to DFA Gale. He has three options remaining, The DFA candidates are those without options:
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Players on the 40-man roster without any remaining options include: Brock Stewart, Tom Koehler, Erik Goeddel, Yimi Garcia, Zac Rosscup, and JT Chargois. Stewart will probably be retained but will no doubt be traded as he is not going to be on the 25 man come Game 1, and would have to be DFA at that time. To get anything for him, even if it is a 19 year old from the Dominican Summer League, he will need to be traded. The others probably have limited if any trade value.
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The 40 man currently sits at 39. With 6 players having zero options and needing to be on the 25 man or be DFA, that is 7 spots that are available. I think Stewart will be the last considered for non tender, but depending as to how many Friedman, Brynes, and Gomes want to protect, the other five will be prioritized and non tendered accordingly. There is a good chance that all will be picked up by other teams, so there will probably not be any minor league contracts for any of the five. The one exception could be Tom Koehler. It is possible they will work something out with him similar to what they did with Charlie Culberson a couple of years back.
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As a FYI, Pat Venditte has one option remaining so he should be safe for now. Because Keibert Ruiz is going to be protected today, that does leave Gale vulnerable, but Ruiz is not ready for the Show so Andrew needs another catcher in the wings just in case. Gale has options left so why push it today. If/when the Dodgers get another catcher, Gale would then be the obvious choice for DFA at that time.
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As I stated in my 11/11/18 article, I believe that Keibert Ruiz, Yadier Alvarez, and Edwin Rios will all be protected. Most probably protected will be Josh Sborz, and outside chance of protection will be Connor Joe. IMO that leaves Drew Jackson and Matt Beaty as the most vulnerable to be drafted, but I doubt that they will be projected to remain on a 25 man all season, and will be bypassed. Of the two, Drew Jackson is the most vulnerable.
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I see no way for Kyle Garlick to be protected. He turns 27 in January. He is not a young prospect. He is the definition of organizational depth. The Dodgers just lost two of him in Jacob Scavuzzo and Henry Ramos to Minor League free agency. There are many like him coming up. Friedman will sign more like him for the upcoming season for both OKC and Tulsa. If you are a fan of Kyle (and I include myself), then you should hope that he is unprotected and somebody picks him up. He is not going to make the 25 man roster for LAD. Back stories are wonderful, but they are not a consideration for Rule 5 protection. One of DC’s favorites is Shea Spitzbarth and he has a great back story as well. He too will be left unprotected today.
ESPN suggests this trade:
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Los Angeles Dodgers acquire Edwin Diaz from the Seattle Mariners for OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Dylan Floro and RHP Mitchell White.
Adrian Beltre announced his retirement today. He’s another one who never should have gotten away. Paul DePodesta – what a GM.
Barring any trades, I see the following happening:
DFA Gale, Goeddel, Koehler, Rosscup
Add Alvarez, Jackson, Joe, Ruiz, Rios
Regarding all all of the stats comparing the Dodgers to the Red Sox and Houston, or in fact to any AL team. Pitching ERA’s in the NL will generally be lower due to the absence of the DH, and team hitting stats will be higher in the AL which has the DH. And vice versa. Bottom line is that the comparisons are to a large degree apples to oranges. Just something to think about.
Let’s just see what happens, now more interested in the 40 man roster.
I love it! Baseball’s version of “Let’s Make a Deal” the wonders of the off season!
Interesting comments Mark about pitching/hitting and Turner Ward. That’s part one of a subtle shakeup, maybe we’re ready for the second shoe to drop and bid a fond farewell to Rick Honeycutt, so he can retire to his ranch and Pryor to take over.
Hey Mark, I just wanted to say Thank You for being reliable and posting something intriguing each and everyday. The Dodgers could stand to be more consistent like you and post something capable every day.
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I hardly blame Honeycutt for Clayton choking every year in the post-season. He seems to lose it out of nowhere each and every year. Maybe this year will be different. This team has the deepest pitching staff we’ve had in recent memory with a few ifs. That is if Hill has one more good year left in the tank, if Kersh can regain a few MPH on his fastball, if Ryu takes another step forward after his rehab and if Urias returns to form. We need to stack that pen with another closer type and maybe one of Friedman’s classic projects. Seager is gonna help a ton with the offense. Maybe Verdugo will too. I still think a healthy Dozier will do wonders for this team. Friedman will pull off a trade for someone no one saw coming.
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I’m excited to see some action today. What time do the 40 man rosters have to be set?