It was fun to dream: Ohtani, Stanton, Ozuna, Rivero, et al. – I did it to mask the pain from the loss of the World Series, but now I am sobered up and back to reality. Now I am going to tell you the truth:
- The Dodgers will be below $237 Million in salary… if only by $1.00. BET ON IT;
- The Dodgers will not sign anyone to a long-term contract;
- Yu Darvish will not be a Dodger;
- Chase Utley will not be a Dodger;
- Yasmani Grandal will not get traded…. at least not now;
- Brandon McCarthy will not get traded;
- The Dodgers will try and make a few trades, but may not be successful as teams are really wary of trading with FAZ for fear sending them the next Chris Taylor (or getting the next Zach Lee); and
- Don’t be surprised if nothing happens.
What Worries Me:
- Walker Buehler’s High-Effort Delivery
- Alex Verdugo’s Psyche
- A-Gon on the roster
- That the Dodgers will keep trying Stewart as a starter
Questions:
- Can El Gasolino learn to pitch?
- Can Cingrani build on his time with the Dodgers? I see a chance for him to be really good.
- Does the team really need anything more?
With Grandal and Barnes, catching is TOP 5 in MLB. I see them both on the team until at least July.
Here’s what I see FOR SURE in 2018:
- Grandal
- Barnes
- Bellinger
- Forsythe
- Seager
- Turner
- Toles
- Hernandez
- Taylor
- Puig
- Culberson
- A-Gon (until he shows he can’t)
- Kershaw
- Hill
- Wood
- Ryu
- Maeda
- McCarthy
- Baez
- Stewart
- Stripling
- Avilan
- Garcia
- Cingrani
- Jansen
Frankly, I am OK with that. Pederson is not on the roster and neither is Verdugo. The fact is, this could be a very good lineup. Do they really need to do much? There are lots of options in the minors.
Rants and Raves
So, two years ago the D-Bags were the Darlings of Baseball when they signed Zack Greinke. Of course, his first season was a disaster. Last year was better and now they are in talks to trade him. Of course, they will have to “eat” some of that money. Would the Giants like a “do over” with Cueto? Boston might like a mulligan with Price.
We need to realize… GM’s need to realize that these long-term dope-fiend deals will kill you in the long run. Cashman should have learned, but he just repeated it again with Stanton. Fans think FAZ is dumb for not doing the big signings. To determine who really is dumb, they should look in the mirror. No further explanation should be necessary.
Discussion (52)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I like the new ownership and they are outstanding compared to what was there prior to their coming, that includes their management team but what are we comparing them to? The guy who took the Dodgers to bankruptcy. So perspective.
This was reported above:
“The team, according to major-league sources, also wants to ensure it does not block opportunities for its top pitching prospects, most notably right-handers Walker Buehler and Trevor Oaks and lefty Julio Urias, who is unlikely to be ready until later in the season after undergoing major shoulder surgery last June.”
To me that sounds somewhat disingenuous based on how they handled Puig his first year after ST, and keeping Urias in extended ST last year. There are other cases but those stand out. Even talk of moving Bellinger back to LF is ludicrous given his talent with the glove at 1B.
In the WS;
The big bats fell silent (Seager – elbow, Turner – out of gas, Bellinger – low & inside pitches), the BP imploded when needed most including KJ. The SP’ers; Darvish after pitching well, telegraphed what was coming next and was devoured and CK was lights out and horrible.
What are K&Z doing to address those issues, or do the Dodgers go into next season with the Stan Kasten model – making the playoffs is good enough?
I like the new ownership but standing pat insures similar results.
If the Dodgers were below $197 Million, there would be no Luxury Tax and they could make that if not for A-Gon’s deal. They would have to trade Forsythe, McCarthy and Grandal, but they could do it. This is why long-term deals like this are the Devil.
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I’ll stand by what I said yesterday:
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The Yankees effectively paid $22 million a year for Stanton AND they will be under the Salary Cap in 2018.
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The Dodgers could no way be under the salary cap and with the Luxury Tax, Stanton would have cost them nearly $50 million a year.
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Effectively, A-Gon’s salary in 2018 will be about $67 million counting the luxury tax which could have been avoided had it not been for THE TRADE (sorry Brooklyn).
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The Yankees just got out of a bunch of bad contracts and now they take another one back. I would have loved to had Stanton, but there was no way the numbers would work. .. and I can’t see $400 million for Harper or Machado.
The Dodgers just signed a new janitor for min wage. Still might get hit with luxury tax.
One other comment made by Dave Roberts in his yesterday’s press conference was the inclusion of Caleb Ferguson in his mention of pitchers on the rise (with Buehler/White/Alvarez/Santana). Most of you know that I have been touting Ferguson for the better part of the last two years. He was the Dodgers 38th round draft choice (1,149 overall) coming off TJ surgery. He is now the Dodgers #21 prospect (MLB Pipeline), their only true LHSP prospect, and the 2017 Cal League ERA leader (2.87 in an extreme hitter friendly league). I cannot wait to watch him in Tulsa.
Teams like the Phils and Rockies are going crazy beefing up their bullpen and overpaying in the process. They are taking the exact opposite approach that the Dodgers do. With so many internal options available for Faz to choose from I don’t blame them for sitting out at this point. Ozuna makes sense for the Cards and again Faz has many internal options for the OF. The biggest story here is the Marlins doing a complete tear down of their current roster. I think the Dodgers are inquiring but not willing to pay the asking price in trades to this point.
Your 25 is just about the same as I thought, with the exception that I included Joc and you included Culberson. With Kike’, CT3, and Barnes, there is enough players who can fill in at 2B, SS, 3B. I included Joc because he will have a $2M salary, and I do not see a player making $2M in the minors. Perhaps you envision Joc being traded. It would not surprise me either way, but Joc is a LH hitting platoon LF with the Dodgers, and until he is moved, that is where I would project him, competing with Toles.
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The Dodgers want to get below the $197M competitive balance tax threshold. If they give Brandon McCarthy away, they can accomplish that. I do not see them even approaching the $237M threshold, or signing free agents would not be seen as an issue. Zaidi has said that it is far more likely to add a player through a trade vs free agent signing. The Dodgers have Forsythe ($9M), Grandal ($7.7), and Ryu ($6M), who could be available if they consummate trades and not take back any more salary than those given away. Joc ($2.0M), Avilan ($2.3M), and Fields ($2.2M) are also possibilities for a trade to shed some payroll.
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FAZ indicated that they wanted to tweak the bullpen with value players. When they say that, they are saying they want to unearth another Brandon Morrow. That undoubtedly means relievers like Boone Logan, Fernando Abad, Matt Albers, John Axford, Jeanmar Gomez, Jared Hughes, Ian Krol, Oliver Perez, Glen Perkins, Drew Storen… Again this year, relievers are getting good contracts, so FAZ is waiting for all of the “good” ones to be gobbled up, and then sign 3-4 to minor league deals with ML camp invites and see if any of them are better than Joe Broussard, Yaisel Sierra, or Shea Spitzbarth.
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Neshek – Phillies – 2 years – $16.25M
Hunter – Phillies – 2 years – $18M
Morrow – Cubs – 2 years – $21M
Swarzak – Mets – 2 years – $14M
Minor – Rangers – 3 years – $28M
McGee – Rockies – 3 years – ?
Shaw – Rockies – 3 years – ?
That is a lot of money for middle relievers, except Morrow will be asked to close for the Cubs, and Minor is being asked to start for Texas.
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Of the top relievers still available (with only Watson as even a consideration):
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Greg Holland (Probably going back to the Rox)
Wade Davis
Addison Reed
Juan Nicasio
Steve Cishek
Brandon Knitzler
Tony Watson
Dodgers clearing the deck for future deals. What those deals may be will depend on how well in organization players do, and what’s out there for how much. Can’t predict when FAZ will see something that speaks to them in some way I could never see, or hear, whatever. They’ll be making deals. Might be minor league deals, might be risk vs reward deals, but they’ll be made. And fans will be angry. Kinda a given in today’s Dodgers.
Cardinals just picked up Ozuna as I predicted they would. Good for the Cardinals. Now FAZ should approach the Cards for Tommy Pham.
Twins signed Pineda. Saves the Dodgers from themselves – what they needed. Another injury prone pitcher currently healing from arm surgery. (again)
He’s missed the best part of 4 different seasons – labral tear surgery and now Tommy John – both his shoulder and elbow.
Here is a question: Would the Dodgers won their division in 2017 with the Adrian Gonzales performance of 2016? What would have been their record in 2017 been if Bellinger wasn’t ready or not in the farm system?
The dust is settling on the “sexy” signing and trade, and I too have reflected and think that it won’t affect the Dodgers as those who believe that the sky is falling for not doing these deals. FAZ do not make knee jerk reactions and their M.O. is trading from a position of strength. They have plan A-Z lined up in case they can’t come to an agreement with another team or player. My heart wanted Ohtani and Stanton and that could have really helped, but I’ve been reflecting on both of their careers. Stanton when healthy is tremendous; what are the chances he repeats the past season both from a health and productivity standpoint?
Ohtani might be 22 or 23, but I remember that when the dodgers wanted to sign him out of high school there was news that he was overworked, having thrown close to 200 pitches in one game, which is the norm for HS pitchers in Japan. So, Ohtani is in his early twenties but how old is his elbow? When Duncan and Kobe were on their last legs, it was said that their knees were way older than the rest of their bodies just because of the overuse.
Short term success for NYY and California Angels, yep. Dodgers will be right there with them getting better too. Lets trust the process. So Mark, Question, Is FAZ still FAZ after Anthapolouss’ departure?
I was reading another blog this morning and there quite a few there talking about firing Friedman. It’s hard to believe how delusional some people are.
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From The Atheletic’s Ken Rosenthal:
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The team, according to major-league sources, also wants to ensure it does not block opportunities for its top pitching prospects, most notably right-handers Walker Buehler and Trevor Oaks and lefty Julio Urias, who is unlikely to be ready until later in the season after undergoing major shoulder surgery last June.
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The Dodgers’ theory is that they will stall the development of their younger pitchers if they fail to give those pitchers a chance. The team is well-positioned to integrate Buehler, Oaks, and others. It supports its starters by limiting the lengths of their outings — the Dodgers’ rotation ranked 10th in the NL last season in innings — and often protects arms by making liberal use of the disabled list.
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I respect our front office. This is exactly what I wanted us to do if we won the World Series: go completely internal and set up for the long-term. Just because we came up short hasn’t changed the process. Might be frustrating for fans but it’s smart business.
The Dodgers will try and make a few trades, but may not be successful as teams are really wary of trading with FAZ for fear sending them the next Chris Taylor (or getting the next Zach Lee) I don’t see that as the problem, but I do think the Dodgers strategery of not trading for or signing players in their 30’s to long contracts, or trading top prospects for what the Dodgers feel is lesser talent is more the issue.
The Dodgers said from day one
1 Build a strong farm system that will keep the team competitive every year.
2 Stay away from signing FA in their 30’s to big long-term contracts.
3 Trade where weakness at a position can’t be strengthened by the farm.
I think many teams just keep trying and that’s their fault, not the Dodgers.
If you sign any hitter beyond the age of 35, you are probably in a bad contract. Just look at Either, Crawford, and Agon. Injuries and age catch up with them. I feel a little differently about pitchers. .Some pitchers can pitch from 35-40 and be affective.
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I hope the Dodgers resign Kershaw. I want him to be a life time Dodger. Yes, there is a stubborn streak in him. He has given everything he has to the Dodgers. We need to show him some loyalty. I firmly believe he will adjust as he gets older.
If you want to read the Full Transcript of Dave Roberts’ interview yesterday, here it is:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/winter-meetings-interview-with-dave-roberts/c-263346742
Maybe I just need to see more of him, but the thing that worries me most about Buehler, is what I perceive to be a straight as an arrow fastball. Maybe I just wasn’t watching close enough, but I never saw much movement on his fastball. Nice offspeed breaking stuff, but the fastball just looks hitable to me.
Judging by the Winter Meetings so far no one is doing much of anything, maybe tomorrow there will be more action. I agree with your takes that for the most part they will stand pat and have an open audition in ST. However I don’t think it’s that dire that the team won’t be able to move some players and contracts in the next few weeks. After many teams spend their money there will be some value signings out there especially bullpen. In order to add players there will have to be a few subtractions from the 40 man which is full. AGon is a sunk cost and may have something left. Kazmir is in the same boat and will get a chance to show if he has anything to offer. Some players out of options may be included in deals to free up some space. One of the LF candidates may be shopped. They have an excess of starters which many teams covet. I trust in Faz and believe the Dodgers will be better next year and I think a deal we all approve will be coming. You make another good point that some teams may be wary of dealing with Faz.
The yankees or cardinals, phillies will get manny. the dodgers won’t get anything but bullpen or probably won’t cause no one will talk the bad contracts. I read somewhere that the dodges will play cody in the outfield if Agon is healthy. The dodgers will win their division but won’t go to the world series. They probably won’t have verdugo in mlb roster unless puig or tayler get hurt. They will look for hitting/outfielder, starting pitching, bullpen next july. Kershaw shouldn’t get s extension after next season. He going to have back problems and struggle in the playoffs. urias won’t be much of a starter next season. Their not going to making in big trades ir free agent signs for several years. They need to either play some of mlb ready prospects or trade them instead of just having them wait in AAA and do nothing.
On the BBWC I read that Otoni needed TJ sugery. Anyone know if this is true?
Peter Angelos has given given the Baltimore GM the green light to listen to offers for Manny.
THIS will be interesting!!