Just because other teams make dope-fiend moves, doesn’t mean the Dodger have to. Look, they have been paying the luxury tax for too long and have paid about $300 million in penalties. It started with foolish, long-term deals to Kemp and Ethier and then came THE TRADE (Beckett, Gonzalez and Crawdad). The Dodgers owe Kemp $5.5 million over the next two year, but after next season, most of the obligations are done.
The thing is: the Dodgers can get under the $197 Million Luxury Tax threshold if they get rid of Gonzalez, McCarthy, Forsythe, Ryu, Kazmir and Grandal. That may seem impossible… but maybe not. Oh, it will cost the Dodgers prospects and players, but it might save them $40+ million and reset the Luxury Tax, which would allow them to sign a free agent like Harper (or not). Joc Pederson and some prospects, maybe even Verdugo would be involved, but it might (could) be done.
If the Dodgers were able to move all those contacts, they would not get much value back… just salary relief. Maybe this is THAT YEAR! Maybe the Dodgers make no trades to add to the team. They just trade to get salary relief. “But they can afford it.” No, they can’t and it’s just plain stupid to continue. The Dodgers have to retire debt or they will be in trouble with MLB soon enough.
It’s fun to dream of Ohtani, Stanton, Machado and others but maybe it is time to RESET! Trading the above-mentioned players would save over $65 million, so the Dodgers could cover some of the salaries. FAZ does not want to “block” the youngsters, so this is the opportunity to allow just that.
They might do that and still win it all. Let me remind you that conventional wisdom is often wrong. I, for one, am down with doing that. If it happens, here is what we might see:
- 1B – Bellinger
- 2B – Hernandez
- SS – Seager
- 3B – Turner
- LF – Toles
- CF – Taylor
- RF – Puig
- C – Barnes
- Sub – Will Smith
- Sub – Culberson
- Sub -Locastro
- Sub – Thompson
- Sub – Segedin
- SP – Kershaw
- SP – Hill
- SP – Wood
- SP – Maeda
- SP- Oaks
- RP – Stripling
- RP – Stewart
- RP – Avilan
- RP – Cingrani
- RP – Baez
- RP – Buehler
- RP – Jansen
Let the youngsters grow into whatever they will be. I’m OK with that. Let’s get it over with.
Just say no to Dumb-ass Long-Term Deals.
Even with that, the Dodgers will win the NL West and who knows how well the kids will do? Bring ’em on!
UPDATE
DODGER NEWS:
- Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com writes about Joc’s conditioning. I said several times last year that he looked like the Pilsbury Dough Boy. Evidently, I wasn’t the only one. The Dodgers told him to shape up!
- Gurnick also writes that the Dodgers would like to shed payroll in the form of McCarthy, Gonzo and Kazmir. Yeah and I’d like to be 30 years younger! I don’t see either of tose things happening!
- We have been busy talking about other things, that we forgot to mention that Juan Castro and Josh Bard have left the team. Eric Stephen has the scoop.
- If the Dodgers want to try a Rule 5 pitcher, Dustin Nosler has some ideas. Honestly, it’s a great idea: Low Risk, High Reward!
- Boy, are things quiet on the Dodger Front!@!@!!
Discussion (30)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The model organization? I would hope the model organization was one who was not 30 years removed from a WS championship regardless of the other metrics in their favor.
And despite being voted such, how about winning all the marbles first before saying how good a team is. Moving in the right direction – yes, but concerned they are satisfied with just making the playoffs every year.
Also, in spite of their current malaise, I’d rather have the three Giants WS wins then being voted a good organization.
MJ,
–
The Cards once were a very good organization but they have slipped a little. Oscar Tavaras death was a big blow. This was a guy who could have been one of the best players in the game. The Cards are trying to come back and will, I think. They let Pujols walk after deciding that was not a smart move. Arte Moreno got sucked in on big contracts with Pujols and Hamilton.
–
While, we are at it, can anyone tell me what percentage of big contracts turn into boat anchors? There is a correlation between big contracts and winning and the correlation is that they are not mutually exclusive. Friedman is trying to win EVERY year, not have a few good years and tank for several years.
–
Right about now, the Dodgers are THE MODEL ORGANIZATION again… after 30 some years! It shall be interesting to see how FAZ evolves after these bad deals are behind them. I would not look for many more deals like Anderson, Kazmir or McCarthy. Those were done out of necessity and while they may not have bene successful on the surface, they serve a purpose and saved the Dodgers from making Dope-Fiend Moves.
I know fans think that the Dodgers should have sufficient financing to pay for any free agent or assume $295M salary over 10 year. But those beliefs are not reality. Relevant facts without making any judgement…
.
In 2012, the Dodgers were purchased for $2B. In 2009, the Cubs sold for $700M, and in 2010-2011, the Rangers sold for $593M and the Astros sold for $610M. The Dodgers cost more than those three franchise sales combined.
.
In the purchase, the new owners assumed $420M in debt.
.
For 2013-2016, the Dodgers payroll was greater than $1B, and the resultant luxury tax was another $113M.
.
For 2013-2015, the Dodgers lost $166M. The next closest loss was the Phillies at $69M, and we have seen what they have done to their payroll. The only other team that lost as much as $6M was Toronto.
.
Depending on who you ask, the Dodgers may or may not have debt service concerns that need to be addressed. But their intentions told as to MLB were that the Dodgers would reduce their payroll, and would be closer to $200M in 2018. I do not have access to the Dodgers Balance Sheet to determine if they meet the MLB criteria. But I would not summarily dismiss the issue.
.
Current 2018 projected payrolls (before $13.5-$15M in benefits) per Baseball-Reference:
Dodgers – $214.5M
Red Sox – $208.9M
Giants – $182.2M
Nationals – $174.0M (Including Kintzler)
Yankees – $153.1M (Including Stanton in, Headley out)
Cubs – $161.1M (including Chatwood, Morrow, Smyly, and Cishek)
Cardinals – $135.1M (Including Ozuna in and Piscotty out)
.
The Cubs and Cardinals are in a much better position to sign free agents than the Dodgers. The Dodgers are in no way in a position to take on a significant free agent without eliminating salary.
.
Do not look for any significant addition to the roster before Spring Training. Regardless as to what market they are perceived to be in, they cannot take on any significant salary without jeopardizing the risk of surpassing $237M. The best they can hope for is to be in a position to pick up some talent at the trade deadline. They may have to continue to play at an elite level, and their stars need to stay healthy, but they have the players that can win. The Dodgers will lose more than $80M in salaries for 2019, and should be in excellent financial position to take advantage of potential trades and free agents.
This article seems interesting to me and at the same time sad to remember …
https://thinkbluepc.com/2017/12/07/recalling-five-of-the-worst-trades-in-dodgers-recent-history/
Would like to see how well this team can do. I think the franchise needs to show loyalty to Gonzalez since he carried team for a few years. Kazmir has no trade value and at best might fill a relief role; wish we could give him away. McCarthy could potentially also fill late inning relief role if he’d just regain his confidence and testicles. Getting below $237M is absolutely necessary this year and then next year we’ll be positioned to get below the cap and reset our clock, so to speak.
I agree with all being said here we do not need big name free agents stick with the kids and see how far they take us the kids will play hard they are trying to make a name for themselves
The Dodgers haven’t signed any free agent to more than 5 years (Jansen) since the Braintrust has taken over and haven’t signed a free agent from outside of the Dodgers’ roster to more than 4 years (McCarthy). (I don’t count Maeda, who was signed to an 8 year deal but for $3 MM/year plus incentives). I agree with others that the Dodgers will not sign a free agent to a long term deal and will likely be out of the market for any of the big free agents next year. In fact, I fear that if Kershaw opts out that the Braintrust won’t resign him either given his age and recent history of back trouble.
–
The Dodgers who were, in the past, considered players for every big money free agent available won’t be any longer. And while in the short run, this is due in part to concerns about the luxury tax, I don’t think that the Braintrust will operate any differently once they have gotten past the luxury tax. Their MO is different. They have shown that they will sign their own key free agents to extensions so Seager and Bellinger will wear the Blue for a while, but don’t expect Harper to come to Dodger Stadium except as a member of a visiting team.
–
Dodger fans’ pipe dreams of acquiring Stanton or his ilk are all past.
I do not think the Dodgers will sign Harper, but they have to be in on it to drive the price up.
If the Dodgers are adverse to signing long term contracts, why would they consider Harper? I know he’s younger but 10 years at potentially 40 million a year. Just don’t see this front office doing it.
Dodgers selected infielder Angelo Mora in the minor league rule 5 draft. No one in major league portion.
–
https://www.truebluela.com/2017/12/14/16776208/rule-5-draft-angelo-mora-dodgers-orioles-minor-league
UPDATE ABOVE
Out of the six players you mentioned, only half have any realistic chance of being moved.
Forsythe is our starting 2b and Chris Taylor is not moving there after being arguably our MVP.
Kazmir and A-gon have minimal value assuming they prove to be healthy during ST.
That leaves Grandal, McCarthy, and Ryu, all depth pieces and expendable, although I’d be sad to see Ryu go. Grandal would have to bring back equal talent and McCarthy we’d probably jusr dump, maybe even paying a portion of his salary.
More likely is we just ride out the year, shedding veterans as their deals expire, releasing some if they can’t be salvaged.
If the Dodgers want to shed more payroll maybe a trade of Grandal, Ryu, and one BP pitcher to Baltimore for Brad Brach. The Dodgers would save about $9.5M.
McCarthy and maybe 5 or 6M to a team like the Angles for a low-level minor leaguer could save another 4 or 5M.
Gonzalez and his $21.5M is going nowhere and I feel he is going to be trouble until the Dodgers DFA him.
Kazmir will most likely be an ST wait and see if he can make the team or be DFA
1B – Bellinger
2B – Forsythe
SS – Seager
3B – Turner
LF – Toles
CF –Taylor
RF – Puig
C – Barnes
Sub –Farmer
Sub – Culberson
Sub – Locastro
Sub – Pederson(if not traded)
Sub – Gonzalez
SP – Kershaw
SP – Hill
SP – Wood
SP – Maeda
SP- Oaks( depending on how ST goes maybe Kazmir?)
RP – Stripling
RP – Stewart
RP – Avilan
RP – Cingrani
RP –Brach
RP – Fields or Liberatore or?
RP – Jansen
When well traveled 30+ year old guys like Nicasio and Joe Smith are getting 2 year deals for more than double what they made last year I can see why the Dodgers might want to give some young arms a chance in the bullpen. I hoped they would resign Watson but he is going to get 2-$20 M at this rate.
It’s lineups like that that make the hot stove league so interesting. What if …..