It s Time to Get Back to Reality!

Mark, You have made this site the best blog ever (for us Dodger fans) and I just want to thank you for adding such a blessing to my life.

Tommy Hunter is off the boards. Headed to Philly. I really would have liked to see what he could have done with the Dodgers.

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Rangers in talks with DBacks about Greinke.

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Zaidi said:

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1. Trades are more likely than free agent signings for the Dodgers in the next week. He expects the next two weeks to be busy in the industry after a slow winter.\

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2. The club’s search for relief help is focused on the value end, not the top end. Sorry those who were delusional about Britton.

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3. The club still is having active dialogue with Darvish, a free agent. About the story dealing with him tipping pitches, said the possibility was already on club radar before Game 7. Thus, in response to the unasked question, “Did they have something on him? It’s certainly possible.”

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4. The team doesn’t feel it needs a lefty hitting 2B, Chase Utley’s role the last two seasons.

I think this would be a big mistake, giving so much money to a player only affects and damages the baseball …….

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2748572-imagining-sky-high-contracts-if-mlbs-biggest-stars-were-free-agents-right-now

McCarthy, Ryu, Fields for Britton. Or switch Avilon for Fields. Or Baez for Fields.

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Grandal and Forsythe and Fields/Baez/Libortore for Cron and Parker Bridwell

Truth be told, I would rather have Machado than Stanton. He’s 25 and would be 35 at the end of the deal. He’s a first ballet HOF just like Adrian Beltre who left the Dodgers at age 25.

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This might help me to get over that and move on with my life…

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Pretty please?

Would the Dodgers consider this?

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Verdugo, Alvarez, Buehler, Grandal, Forsythe, McCarthy, Pederson, Baez, Stripling and Ryu to the Orioles for Manny, Britton and Brach…

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PROVIDING Manny signs a 10 year/$340 Million deal and PROVIDING Corey Seager moves to 3B because Manny wants to play SS.

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The Dodgers would take on a little salary (not much) and this would be the lineup:

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1. Taylor CF

2. Machado SS

3. Seager 3B

4. Bellinger 1B

5. Turner 2B

6. Puig RF

7. Toles/Kike LF

8. Barnes C

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Would you?

Dave Roberts said Walker Buehler will be a starter in 2018 after relieving for Dodgers in September.

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Roberts said Andrew Toles is expected to be healthy and will compete for LF job.

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Roberts won’t give timeline on Julio Urias’ return from shoulder surgery beyond sometime in 2018.

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Roberts said he wasn’t surprised to hear Yu Darvish was tipping pitches to Astros in World Series, but said there also was poor pitch execution.

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Roberts reiterated that Kenta Maeda is expected to be a starter after relieving in the postseason.

For some reason the Padres just re-acquired Chase Headley.

With all these young arms the Dodgers will figure out where they need to pitch. Sometimes you just have to throw them in the fire. Even Kershaw has trouble adjusting sometimes. Doc sometimes needs to be more patient. He needs to let pitchers fight through the line up for the third time. Pitching is the most important ingredient in putting a team together.

From what I can tell the following teams need SP: Yankees, Twinkies, Orioles, Cubs, Midgets, Madres, and probably others. Free agents will fill some holes, but why not get Ryu in exchange for a second tier prospect rather than overpay for Darvish or Cobb? Also, some teams will need SP during spring training when injuries start happening.

I see the Yankees dealt the Padres a mid-level prospect to take Headley’s contract off their hands. MCCarthy anyone?

While I believe what I wrote yesterday that the Dodgers will not do anything at the Winter Meetings, that does not mean that they will not try. They cannot do anything of significance without unloading contracts. I do not believe that the Dodgers will be able to move McCarthy and his $12M AAV, but maybe Hawkeye is right and someone will look at the $5M option as a possibility. In addition to McCarthy, the Dodgers have three other payroll luxuries that can be moved; Forsythe, Grandal, and Ryu. But in order to move them, there has to be an interested team to deal with.

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With McCarthy, Grandal, Forsythe, and Ryu, FAZ would have to look at teams looking to make a go for it in 2018, and if it does not work out, possible trade deadline possibilities because none of the four are qualifying offer possibilities. In my mind, two teams stand out with needs who in all likelihood will go for it in 2018; Angels and Orioles. O’s more of an unknown right now. Neither team has luxury tax concerns and can take on the salaries if they want to. The Angels need a 2B, catching, and relief pitching. Forsythe, Grandal, Fields, Avilan are all potential here. They could also use a SP who is less of a question than what the Angels have, and that could be Ryu. The Angels have a lot of young pitchers that may be available. My two favorite are Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano, both RHSP. I would include Heaney, but LAD does not need another LHSP.

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The O’s need starting pitching and starting pitching and starting pitching. They have two starters right now; Bundy and Gausman. Maybe they would be willing to take McCarthy for that proverbial player to be named later. While his AAV is $12M, his actual salary is $10M, making him more of a possibility. He is less of a risk than Chris Tillman who they are considering. Since they do not have any real LHSP potential, Ryu is also a possible fit. The O’s do not need to commit to multi-year contracts for Lance Lynn, Jason Vargas, or Alex Cobb this year. With Caleb Joseph as the only potential backup for Chance Sisco, Grandal should be a consideration. Also, the only four infielders on the 40 man are Tim Beckham, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop. They are four solid starters, but Logan Forsythe could give them some utility usage.

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The Dodgers are not going to resign any of Grandal, Forsythe, Ryu, or McCarthy, so the moving of any of them would help this year if for nothing else, getting closer to the luxury tax threshold. That is more than $30M in salary relief which they could use.

With all the arms the Dodgers have in the minors, the more I think it is possible we will see some youngsters in the pen, like:

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Buehler

White

Santana

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I am not convinced that any of them is a starter. I’m not saying they aren’t either, but with Kershaw and Urias, you “KNEW” they were starters. I thought that about De Leon too… in 2015, I got to thinking he might be better suited for the pen.

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Santana, White and Buehler could be “lock-down relievers.” It’s the mental aspect, you have to worry about.

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Right now, I am convinced that Dustin May is a starter. This could be his year to bloom. Alvarez could be a high-leverage reliever. The jury is still out on whether he can start.

The End is Near! It has to be when Bill Plaschke commends (not condemns) the Dodgers:

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http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-plaschke-20171211-story.html

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On the Dodgers not getting Giancarlo Stanton:

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They weren’t 59 home runs from a championship last year. They were nine innings.

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It took a while, but now even Plaschke is a fan of this front office.

How we know that Darvish was indeed tipping pitches in the WS:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/11/dodgers-yu-darvish-tipped-pitches-world-series-astros

What did we get out of Either in the last two years? What did we get out of Agon last year and what this year? Add Kasmir and McCarthy to this list and you have a lot of wasted money. Home grown farm kids look pretty appealing.

I hear that McCarthy and Kazmir are both working with specialists so as to be ready next year. I am not holding my breath…

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But, you never know.

It is indisputable that Kazmir has been an utterly bad deal for the Dodgers.

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Here’s what is also indisputable:

2013 – 158 IP – 4.04 ERA

2014 – 190 IP – 3.55 ERA

2015 – 183 IP – 3.10 ERA

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Those are very good stats for a 31 year-old LH pitcher who would sign a 3 Year/$48 million deal. I can see that it did not work, but I can also see why they did it. How many other pitchers with those stats were available for such a short-term deal? They were wanting him to be a #4 or #5. Who knew his hip would fall off?

Love the FO but you have to wonder what the heck they were thinking when they signed Kazmir. He was a very average, well-traveled MLB pitcher when they signed him to a three year $16 million AAV contract. That signing at the time was a “head scratcher,” and still is.

I agree with AC’s post 100%. The Dodgers won’t spend the money that it would take to get a guy like Stanton for 3 reasons:

1 – They have a team that just won 104 games and will improve where needed but not much is needed;

2 – They have luxury tax problem.

3 – They are philosophically opposed to big money contracts where they are buying too many years of questionable performance.

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The days of even contracts like Kershaw’s are probably over.

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None of the 3 guys that they extended last year are signed for more than 5 years (Jansen).

Neshek is back with the Phils at 2 years $16-$17M. Under their current salary constraints, they cannot compete with that kind of offer for a 2nd tier reliever (albeit a good one).

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Friedman has indicated that he is going to concentrate on the bullpen at the Winter Meetings. Minor League and waiver wire contracts? More for the OKC shuttle?

I don’t believe the Dodgers will get Ozuna. Teams like the Cardinals and Giants need him much more than the Dodgers and those two specifically have been through the trade process in swapping names with Marlins during the Stanton ordeal. It will be bullpen pieces and then head into the season with what they’ve got.

Mark, you’re probably correct in your assumptions about the un-retired debt. But I also wonder, as I noted a while back in another post, whether or not Guggs has any plans to develop the land around Dodger Stadium. I don’t remember the details, but I recall reading a couple of years ago, or thereabouts, that the Giants had a plan to develop land around AT&T. If that’s so, I can’t imagine that the Dodgers aren’t planning the same, even though it would be a cooperative deal with Frank McCourt. Ugh!!!

Vegas, this is splitting hairs, but if memory serves the Dodgers TV deal was for 25 years, NOT 20 years. If you use the average over those years, the annual return to the Dodgers is $334,000,000, which is still a whole bunch of change. But, of course, we really don’t know how the Dodgers are paid. My best guess is that it isn’t the same every year, and is probably a number that increases over time. However, I believe it’s by far the largest TV contract anywhere, and that given the current problems Time Warner is having selling it to other providers, it may well be the last contract of its kind, at least in present day dollars. But whatever the case, it’s still got a lot of years to run, and by the time it ends I will probably not be around to care.

Listened to Cashman on Sirius XM. Yankees weren’t on the outsided looking in because they were hoping for Ohtani. They had checked in on Stanton at GM meetings, but Ohtani was the priority. When Marlins had made deals with St. Louis and SF, Cashman wished them luck and they were out. Like the Dodgers, they were trying to move contracts and it wasn’t working. I believe Ellsbury was who they were trying to move. After the veto, the Marlins engaged the Yankees.

I would assume that with the money owed on the original purchase of the team, all the upgrades to the Sadium, Lockeroooms, Pressbox, Camelback Ranch, Buying OKC and with the hundreds of millions paid in the Luxury Tax , that Guggs and Company have not retired a lot of debt.

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I can see that what Heyman says has some validity, but I will defer to our head bean-counter….

Verdugo is a potential replacement for Puig when Puig becomes a free agent. He’s 21. Few play in the MLB at that age.

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Toles odds of playing increases even more in 2019 if Taylor moves to second after Forsythe leaves for free agency. I would get a kick out of Toles platooning with Forsythe this year say as soon as June?

LF–Toles seems like a safe bet to begin the year in AAA getting reaccustomed to the daily grind of everyday play. I see Keekay as a platoon half. That leaves Joc and Verdugo battling it out for the starting LF job (Trayce doesn’t really factor in for me). I guess Joc could be trade bait but I don’t see him returning more than he’s worth to us as a potential highside play. We’re pretty balanced in terms of rh/lh bats so I’m not sure if adding a RH OF thumper is that much of a priority. Right now I’d have Joc as the starting LF with Verdugo having to prove he deserves the job. We could begin the year with both Toles and Verdugo in OKC. In any event, I sense a trade of an OF at some point this offseason. Seems a bit crowded to me.

Excellent analysis AC. I agree with most of it, and just not knowledgeable enough to be certain one way or another on some of it.

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I also took note of the debt service issue when I heard it last night.

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I would think that with added time in CF, that CT3 might be able to get a better jump on balls hit over his head, especially if it’s something he consciously and conscientiously works on.

Eric Stephen’s latest projection as to where the Dodgers stand with the competitive balance tax is at $214M. The luxury tax threshold is $197M for 2018, so they are $17M over the threshold, subject to the 50% penalty. The next tier is $217M which kicks in another 12% surcharge. The third tier is $237M which includes a 45% surcharge plus draft slot penalties.

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The current $214M projection does not take into account the incentives that may be due Kenta Maeda, which will be somewhere between $3M and $6M. So if the Dodgers do nothing, and keep Maeda as a starter, they are in the 62% tax bracket.

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Regardless as to what fans want, the front office has made it abundantly clear that the luxury tax is a significant issue, and that it is more important to drop below the $197M threshold than to add payroll. Because the Marlins viewed the Stanton transaction as purely a salary dump, the Dodgers had virtually no chance to acquire him.

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So this idea that Ozuna is relatively cheap is inaccurate if you take into consideration that there is another 62% penalty added on to that cost. Ozuna is projected to make $10.9M is arbitration; therefore his true cost will be north of $17.5M. That is not happening. The Marlins know they can trade Ozuna without including any cash (or bad contracts), so the Dodgers are not real players in this deal.

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The luxury tax is why Brandon Morrow was not a consideration. His $10M AAV will have the same tax consequence as Ozuna.

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Lock down relievers? Only if you believe, as I think the Dodgers do, that Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Luis Avilan, Tony Cingrani, Ross Stripling, Brock Stewart, Yimi Garcia, Wilmer Font, Edward Paredes, and Adam Liberatore are the “lockdown relievers” Roberts will have as a bridge to Jansen. That is 11 relievers for 8 spots with Fields, Avilan, Cingrani, and Font out of options. FAZ is not going to give multiple top prospects for Iglesias or Rivero, for a position they believe they can address elsewhere. I do not see another ML reliever being added. FAZ will continue to look for relievers to add to OKC, but not LAD.

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The Dodgers efforts, if any, will be to alleviate payroll, not add. There is NO CHANCE the Dodgers can move Scott Kazmir or Adrian Gonzalez. Kazmir will go to Spring Training, because there is no harm in that. IMO he will either be released or placed on the 60 Day DL out of Spring opening a 40 man spot. I disagree that A-Gon will be left off the roster. He will not waive his no-trade. If he is healthy at all, he will make the 25 man and be a LH bat off the bench, and an occasional start for Bellinger. He will be an expensive PH.

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The Dodgers will have to hope they can move Grandal and McCarthy, which could save nearly $20M in salary. But they will not bring back any significant help for 2018. Nobody is going to want McCarthy at $12M. Matt Harvey at $6.5M is a better risk than McCarthy at $12M, and the Mets are looking for a high leverage reliever (not a closer), in return. While Grandal does have value, he is probably more valuable to the Dodgers than to anyone else at $7.7M.

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I do not see Ryu as a 170 inning pitcher. At best he will replicate 2017. He is at most a 25 start pitcher. He will be on the 10 Day DL at least 3 times in 2018. Because of his contract, Maeda will get every opportunity to start. If the Dodgers cannot move McCarthy, that will be 6 starting pitchers not including Buehler, Oaks, or Urias later in the year. The Dodgers are more likely to go to a 6 man rotation to give more rest to Kershaw/Wood/Hill. They have certainly been hinting at that with the usage of the 10 Day DL in 2017. There will be no additional starting pitching. FAZ will see that Maeda/Ryu/McCarthy and then Buehler/Urias/Oaks are better options than any other starter on the market.

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I have no problem with CT3 in CF. He has a problem going back on balls hit over his head (he hesitates), meaning he will have to start deeper than most CF. This means there will be more hits that will drop in front of him. He will track down the gap hits as well as anyone not named Kiermaier or Pillar. While I like Inciarte at CF and Taylor at 2B, I recognize the Dodgers are not going to take on more salary. So CT3 in CF it is.

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The Dodgers cannot keep Toles, Pederson, and Verdugo. Verdugo is an obvious choice to go back to start the season at OKC. Joc may have value, but at $2M as a LH hitting platoon LF, most contending teams will look at that as a luxury and not a need. It is possible that a non-contender will view him as a potential, but they are not going to give up high tiered prospects for him. So Joc will be a Dodger in 2018 (until he again shows he cannot hit) leaving Toles as a candidate to go back to OKC with Verdugo. It will come down to Toles or Trayce Thompson. Toles is more likely to go to OKC to play every day than sit on a bench. TT can sit on the bench just like SVS in prior years.

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Rotation (5)

Kershaw

Wood

Hill

Maeda (musical 10 day DL)

Ryu (musical 10 day DL)

McCarthy (musical 10 day DL)

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Pen (8)

Jansen

Baez

Fields

Cingrani

Avilan

Stripling

Font (or DFA)

Stewart (OKC shuttle)

Garcia (OKC shuttle)

Paredes (OKC shuttle)

Liberatore (OKC shuttle)

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Position (8)

1B – Bellinger

2B – Forsythe

3B – JT

SS – Seager

LF – Kike/Joc

CF – Taylor

RF – Puig

C – Barnes

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Bench (4)

Grandal – catcher

Kike/Joc – LF

Toles/Thompson – #5 OF

A-Gon – LH PH/1B

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That is a $214M to $220M team the Dodgers will start with. They will continue to stack prospects, but there is no place for them until 2019 when A-Gon, McCarthy, Kazmir, Forsythe, Ryu, and Grandal all leave via FA. With the exit of those players, and with Arruebarrena, Ethier, and Toscano off the books, the Dodgers will save $72.70M for 2019. The more I listen to Jon Heyman the more I am convinced that the Dodgers may in fact have a debt service issue coming up for 2019. Therefore I predict they will not spend any savings for Harper/Machado/Donaldson/Keuchel or any other $100M+ player, other than Kershaw.

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I am prepared to be wrong (and I hope I am), but I do not think I will be far off.

The Dodgers seem to be able to have a good enough bullpen for the regular season by rotating the hot pitcher into the setup role. The playoffs have been a different story except for last year. Maybe Maeda can be that setup guy for the playoffs if no one else steps up or is added to the team.

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Regular season rotation: Kershaw, Wood, Maeda, Hill, Ryu

Playoff rotation: Kershaw, Wood, HIll,

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I said this a couple of Posts back and I still like it:

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Because I want the Dodgers to take advantage of their youth and because I want them under the salary penalty now, I would be happy if the Dodgers were to start the season with this lineup:

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Taylor, Seager, Turner, Bellinger, Puig, Pederson, Barnes, Forsythe.

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Kershaw, Wood, Hill, Maeda, Ryu, Buehler/Stewart or hopefully Ohtoni.

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I like having Toles and Verdugo as young inexpensive talent available as needed which could be as soon as opening day.

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I would give Grandal playing time as he seems to be a much better player in the first half than he is in the second half. His value would increase for a mid-season trade if he hits early in the season. That would give Barnes more rest that would help him be strong in the second half and give Smith more time to develop and be Grandal’s replacement after the trade.

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It would be great if Morrow were re-signed and I would like to trade for Britton later in the season after his health is better known. Grandal and Verdugo for Britton and Austin Hayes would be good pieces of a trade package.

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I have always gone back and forth with Puig. My main concern with him is his threat to the center fielder. He will be a free agent soon enough anyway. Now might be a good time to use him to help get a team to take on one of Gonzales’ , McCarthy’s, or Kazmir’s contract.

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I would love if the Dodgers could dump the contracts of McCarthy, Kazmir, and Gonzales. 100% is doubtful.

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I am curious if Toles could be converted to a middle infielder like Russel and Lopes were. He could be the lefty hitting compliment to Forsythe although I prefer that Taylor be the full time second baseman and Forsythe traded–(Angels?)

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In summary, I think the Dodgers could improve by subtraction more than addition other than relief pitching and adding Ohtoni.

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I would rather trade for Thousand Oaks native Christian Yelich than for Inciarte. But I have been looking for a righty version of Verdugo and Austin Hays may be that player. This link takes you to Baltimore’s top 30 prospects. Hayes is their #2.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=balThis link takes you to Baltimore’s top 30 prospects.

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If Kershaw wants to opt out of his contract I would let him go unless he dominates in the WS in 2018. He would be the one leaving the Dodgers and not the other way around. His salary is big enough already.

Matt Harvey is available…just saying. Grandal and a couple prospects.

I was just listening to Steve Phillips on MLB Radio who explained why the Yankees were able to trade for Stanton while the Dodgers weren’t:

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The Yankees effectively paid $22 million a year for Stanton AND they will be under the Salary Cap in 2018.

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The Dodgers could no way be under the salary cap and with the Luxury Tax, Stanton would have cost them nearly $50 million a year.

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Some people think that FAZ can’t or won’t make trades like that because they have a small market mentality!

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That’s moronic!

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FAZ didn’t make that trade because they are not dumbasses!

I agree with your assessment Mark. They need to figure out LF. I would trade Joc. I just do not like the all or nothing attitude. Let Kike, Toles and Verdugo fight it out. I think Ryu is going to be much better than anybody thinks. It usually takes two years to come back from shoulder surgery. Chacin would just cost us money. Maeda looks like a very good relief pitcher. He looks at best an average starting pitcher. Last year I just waned Baez off the team. However, I have not given up on him yet. He has to add another pitch. If he did he could be very good. I have changed my mind about Grandal. I would keep him. I have been high on Beuhler. He needs to be in the mix somewhere. The pitching needs to be looked at by FAZ. Here is what I believe about putting a team together. 1. Pitching 2. Defense 3. Hitting. Last point-Stanton’s contract is a bad contract.

I’m not one of the disappointed fans for not getting Stanton, I never believed the Dodgers would make a series offer for him, and his commitment of 10 years. The Dodgers will not sign any FA outfielders in their early 30’s because that’s not the type of moves they make.

The Dodgers are not going after Ender Inciarte because center field is not the issue, left field, and a batter to protect Bellinger is, and the Dodgers can accomplish both by trading for Ozuna who is young, cheap, plays a good outfield, and is signed through 2019. Ozuna could be the bridge before some of the prospects are ready in 2020 or the Dodgers could re-sign him. He is not Stanton but he will be what they need and the cost is 2 years, not 10,

I don’t think this FO believes in big money or trading top prospects in building a bullpen. Other than the closer, that is.

And other than at the deadline for a playoff push.

Blanton, Morrow. Those guys are cheaper and provide great ROI.