While I love to read Dodgerrick’s comments, I think that he and I look at the state of the Dodgers in different prisms, but he asked some questions earlier that got me to thinking. While I may have initially taken exception to the tone (my perception, not his intent) of the questions, they are nonetheless legitimate and fair.
Anyone betting on which starting pitcher goes on the DL 1st? Now I acknowledge that the Dodger pitching staff is brittle, and while I am assuming the question is rhetorical, I still have no guess as to which starting pitcher will actually be the first to go on the DL. These are not the 2016 Chicago Cubs starting rotation with 5 pitchers with 29 or more starts. There will undoubtedly be multiple trips to the DL. I would also acknowledge that some of these will be designed for scheduled rest. The difference is that the Dodgers are built to absorb multiple DL trips, while the Cubs were built to rely on 5 (and still are). The first question logically leads into the second one:
Anyone betting on how many starting pitchers the Dodgers go through this year? I can see them getting to 12, but with only ten currently on the 40 man roster (Kershaw/Maeda/Hill/McCarthy/Ryu/Urias/Stripling/Wood /Stewart/Kazmir) there will need to be two additions/changes to the 40 man during the year; certainly more than feasible with FAZ. Trevor Oaks will get added during the year making it eleven, and I believe at least 10 of the 11 will start multiple games (Kazmir the unknown). While not considering the addition via trade, there will need to be one – two additional 40 man additions from Buehler/White/Sborz/Sopko. I can also see the possibility of one start from Justin Masterson and/or Jair Jurrgens on an emergency call-up. They couldn’t do worse than Nick Tepesch, could they? I think I will take the over, and not be disappointed if they do. While some may look at 12-15 SP as an obstacle, I look at it as a strength..
The Puig question is intriguing to me, because I have changed my mind on this one multiple times. I keep reading about how talented he is, but the production since mid-2014 does not support that claim. I think he has matured, come to camp in better shape, but I still do not see the 2013/2014 version of Yasiel Puig. I do not know if he is a better teammate, and unless anyone here has been in the clubhouse (or has talked to Andy Van Slyke lately), I doubt that anyone knows. IMO FAZ may have held on to him too long, and his trade value is continuing to decrease. I still do not see an imminent trade, so if Puig is traded I would project it to be at the deadline. If the Dodgers can get a good OF bat, I can see him packaged and traded. So my answer is that I do not think that Puig will be in a Dodger uni at the end of the year.
Now, how about a few questions about potential positive Dodger outcomes.
- Which Dodger pitchers will win 10 or more games?
- Will this Dodger team be able to duplicate the 1977 four 30+ HR players (Garvey/Cey/Baker/Smith), and then duplicated 20 years later (Piazza/Karros/Zeile/Mondesi)? It happens every 20 years, and this is 20/40 year anniversary. Who would make that foursome?
- Will Logan Forsythe outperform his career averages of .255/.326/.395/.721, and become the field leader he was brought to LA for?
- Does Corey Seager pull a Kris Bryant – ROY followed up with a MVP?
- Does Clayton Kershaw get his 4th CYA? Will he lead the league in ERA for the 5th time? Will he have another 300K season?
Discussion (56)
Disagree, not disagreeable
In what was Puig’s rookie season, he hit .517 and did not make the team. Yet, he came back and made an impact. Taylor, Segedin, Thompson, Urias, Liberatore and Wilson would have made most teams, but not on the deepest team in baseball. Wood and Stripling would start on many MLB teams, but not on the Dodgers.
–
Chris Taylor is not a .370 hitter – we all know that. We all know he really isn’t a starter, but we do know he did have a great Spring. He is likely a better SS than Kike, although Kike played well last night, even looking spectacular at times. The difference is his experience in the outfield – like Taylor all you want, he is not MLB-ready for CF. Kike is a very uniqued player… but he had better hit – that’s all I can say.
–
I declared Barnes off the team, but he did have an OPS of .806, which is good, even though his BA was not good, and his versatility and speed won it for him. If someone needs a SS, Chris Taylor’s value is much higher now. Estevez is coming…
Yeah, I’m really disappointed that Kike made the final roster over Taylor. He can’t hit his way out of a paper sack!I just don’t get it. I thought Roberts and FAZ wanted the best players on the 25 man … I just don’t get it. Disappointed. I think Segedin made too many errors to displace SVS. As you may recall I am not a SVS fan either. Oh, well. They will have to perform because I would assume they are on a pretty short leash.
Probably the plan all along…but Taylor, Segedin and Morrow turned some heads this spring. I’m ok with SVS and understand Gutierrez. Hatcher and Kike should be looking over their shoulders and checking AAA stats.
Taylor, Thompson, Urias optioned. Wilson re-assigned. I should have stuck with my statement at the beginning of ST when I said no way Segedin and Taylor make the team. Culberson too at one time. With Seager’s injury I thought Taylor had earned a spot. My pre-ST roster didn’t have any of the so-called back up shortstops making the team, but it appears that Kike may have done it.
Utley, SVS, Barnes, FG, Kike appears to be the bench.
Anyone know who this is?
–
Hint: He looks a lot like his brother!
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/3/30/15125316/sf-giants-sports-science-potty-people-in-the-house
Let me ask, what is acceptable for Puig? He isn’t going to every duplicate the Puig we saw when he was called up nor do I expect him to be the Puig that pulls a hammy every time he busts it up the first base line. Is .280 with 15 hrs 15 SB’s and top notch RF good enough? If he’s held to what we saw when he first came up, he’s only going to disappoint. The numbers I put up is what the Cubs paid a lot of money for and what they thought they were getting out of Heyward.
The Dodgers were 23rd last year with RISP at .250. In 2015 they were 21st at .249. They were 1st at .286 in 2014, 16th at .252 in 2013, 18th at .252 in 2012, and 20th at .246 in 2011.
–
This has been a weakness in the current bunch for years (2014 appears to be an outlier) and since they have largely the same group as last year (Forsyth excepted) I have no real expectation that they will be any better.
–
The Earl Weaver theory about playing for the 3 run HR seems to be in play, but it rarely results in good BA with RISP. I suspect that it is part of the Moneyball way of doing things.
Exactly AC! They have a contingency for the contingency this time around. And as you pointed out a few days ago have stocked OKC with experienced arms so they do not have to rush the pitchers at the lower levels. The Bud Norris trade cost them young players they would like to have back. Faz seems to be taking a more cautious and nuanced approach to trades at this point.
–
MJ, I agree that Grandal and Joc both should shorten their swings and put the ball in play more, especially with 2 strikes instead of trying for home runs. They both are so strong they don’t have to try for HR’s. I would rather have 6 guys with 20 than 4 with 30 HR’s but even better how about the team hitting .300 with RISP? The Giants are usually very good at the clutch 2 out hit to drive in key runs.
I like this team. Rookies players will get their opportunities without the pressure that would exist if veterans were not available. The Dodgers are moving toward being a younger team. Since Pederson, Seager, and Bellinger will soon be playing together, it would be nice if Thompson and Puig could excel in the outfield to balance out the lime up. Thompson could be another 30 home run player.
.
The rotation has players with innings limits but have plenty of pitchers to compete throughout the season. In a few years the Dodgers will have a rotation where they will have 5 pitchers that can do 200+ innings and we already know who those pitchers will most likely be.
Rick, your comments are always interesting and appreciated. I am also more troubled by the bullpen than the rotation. Minor league shuttle will be used more there than anywhere, and last chance for Hatcher. I agree the current starters have an injury history but this spring they all appear healthy-knock on wood!
–
The Cubs partially leaned on their top 5 so much because there was such a steep drop off after that. I doubt it’s sustainable for another season. The Dodgers have 8 healthy arms right now for 5 spots, only question being command and effectiveness. 7 are on the 25 man roster now with Urias in the wings. Stripling and Wood have both had success as starters and relievers and don’t have to be long men. The starters only need to provide 6 innings consistently to keep undo pressure off of the bullpen arms. Oaks, and later Kazmir and Stewart are already on the 40 man if needed so no need to roster shuffle, fly a guy in for one game then send him back down. The roster is now constructed to withstand a rotation injury, and maybe 2 without severe drop off. No Bud Norris trades this year! Until Sept when rosters expand and if they have a big lead in the division there is no reason barring more injuries or a trade to go much outside those 11 guys.
AC – another enjoyable article! Thanks. In response to your questions:
#1 – Kershaw, Hill, Maeda and Wood (maybe Urias)
#2 – If they held to form it would be Seager/Turner/Grandal and Pederson (though I think they fall a little short)
#3 – Yes (He looks to me the be the type of player the Dodgers have been missing to push them over the top)
#4 – No, though I think he will be in the top 5)
#5 – Yes, maybe and I don’t think so.
I think Ryu goes t the DL first, followed by McCarthy.
They’ll use at least 12 starting pitchers. Before the year’s over, I believe both Urias and Oaks will be factors in the starting rotation . I thing Puig will be gone before the end of the year and will not factor in the Dodger’s playoff run.
That’s my 2 cents.
Keeping 2 long men in the bullpen tells me that this rotation will be used like this: Kershaw, as long as he wants; Maeda and Ryu, as long as they get guys out; McCarthy and Hill, no more than 5 innings, with the other 3 going to the long men. I suspect that the long men have a spot in the bullpen as quasi starters and will be the designated pitchers for McCarthy and Hill. We are entering a phase in baseball where the backend of the rotation will only be expected to go 5, or 2 times through the lineup. 5+3+1 will be the new order of the day for these guys, and frankly, they probably belong in the bullpen anyway. I think it stinks, though. Where is Claude Osteen? Stan Williams? On the days that McCarthy and Hill pitch, Roberts should write in the lineup at #9, 2 pitchers for that day. That is what it will amount to. Sounds like Little League.
Several interesting views this morning. Here are a few of mine (interesting or not):
1 – I have given the point of the number of Dodger pitchers to start games this year some thought – I have 13. It was 15 last year. We will have the current 5 plus Urias, Kazmir, Wood, Stewart, Stripling, 2 guys from the minors and one trade deadline replacement.
2 – The only starting pitcher from the first 5 will be Kershaw. Kazmir is already on the DL to start the season so he’s the first. The first from the current 5 will be Ryu.
3 – I have Kershaw with close to 20 wins. I doubt anyone else gets to 15. They won’t make enough starts with trips to the DL.
4 – Puig – this is the year that the Dodgers run out of patience with him and trade him, probably at the deadline.
5 – Last year the Dodgers had 4 guys with 25+ HRs – Pederson, Grandal, Turner and Seager. I can see that happening again but doubt they will all hit 30. Forsyth hit 20 last year and Gonzalez hit 18. 6 guys with 20 HRs would be pretty special, but I don’t see Forsyth getting there again this year.
6 – I actually have concerns about the bullpen. Last year they were able to absorb a punishing number of innings and learned to lean on Blanton (!) as their primary 8th inning guy. Blanton is gone. Romo has not looked good late this Spring. His fastball velocity is down to about 85. He was on the DL for a couple of months last year, gave up a bunch of HRs and wasn’t any good against lefties. At this point I view him as a ROOGY. Dayton may be a good 8th inning option. Behind Jansen, Romo and Dayton are Hatcher (!!), Avilan, and 2 long guys (Wood and Stripling). I don’t like the way that this is set up.
–
Remember, with the oft-injured 5 inning starting staff the Braintrust has assembled, the ‘pen has to take up the slack. It was a big part of the Dodgers’ formula for success last year. Will it be this year?
7 – As to the other questions – Seager won’t be MVP, Kershaw will win the CY, Forsyth has a solid season – .280, 15 HR, .340 OPB, the Dodgers win the Division with 93 wins but flame out in the playoffs against teams with better starting rotations (Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Giants).
Since the question was who can win 10+ games I’ll go with Kershaw, Hill, Maeda and Ryu. I think the Dodgers will be cautious with Ryu early letting him only go 5 maybe innings early in the season depending on his pitch count and how hard he has to work. In my opinion the key is will he gain or lose velocity as the season goes on. He’s never been a flame thrower but he needs to have a separation in pitch velocity to be successful. Trevor Hoffman is a good example of that. During the majority of his career he had a 10ish mph separation between his fastball and change so it didn’t mater if he was only throwing his fastball 92. As he lost velocity late in his career he lost that separation and therefore some effectiveness.
I wonder if there will be a drop in effectiveness for the Cubs rotation due to pitching as many innings as they did last year. It’s been brought as a concern for the Indians this season so I don’t see how it wouldn’t be a concern for the Cubs.
GOOD JOB MARK!!! LETS GO DODGERS. TAKE US TO THE PROMISED LAND.
Another nice post today AC. Bums had the potential 30 homer guys, all were close last year. AGon could go another 20-25 himself and Forsythe had 20 last year but looks like he has shortened his swing this spring.
–
I see Kershaw and Maeda with 15 or more wins, and possibly Hill. Hill had 12 wins last year in only 20 starts, he should exceed that number this year. Ryu had 14 in each of his first 2 seasons and is looking more and more like that pitcher. With this lineup and bullpen he could get 15 if his starts are not limited. Urias only needs a chance to pitch and he will have 12 to 15. McCarthy could get to 10 but probably won’t unless someone else is hurt. Can he pitch out of the pen when Urias returns? Wood and Stripling will get some starts and vulture a few out of the bullpen but probably won’t get to 10. Kazmir and Stewart are set back physically, no reason to push them. I predict that 5 get to 10 wins barring injury or trade.
–
Forsythe breaks out this year and becomes a solid .280 hitter with some pop and speed atop the lineup. He does everything well and nothing great but is a gamer who brings a great attitude every day.
–
Seager has a solid season but no MVP, that’s a lot to ask! Kershaw gets the ERA title again but no 300 K’s, in fact he may be dialed back a bit past 7 innings unless throwing a shutout. Maybe 120 pitches max later in the season.
I’m glad you’re writing for this blog, AC. I think you’re a great baseball mind and an equally effective communicator. Your talents were wasted in your self-imposed exile as an obscure commenter on Think Blue.
I appreciate Dodger Rick. I understand his points. I get his ambivalence to signing pitchers with checkered injury histories. I too. like he, had a feeling of regret when Greinke wasn’t signed, that there was a missed opportunity to assemble a championship team the way the Dodgers had done it in the past, with a Koufax/Drysdale duo. But Dodgerrick was wrong about that. Greinke’s fastball is now topping out at about 89 as opposed to the 92-93 just a couple of years ago. He’s now 33. I don’t think he’ll be quite as bad as he was last year, but I also don’t think he’ll ever be as good as he was, and he certainly won’t be 34 million good this year, not to mention for the years remaining on his contract.
The Dodgers dodged a bullet.
I had a brief spat over at the other place with Mark’s old nemesis. He was lamenting how good the Giant’s rotation is, how they have four pitchers who can pitch 200 innings and the Dodgers don’t have veterans who are reliable, the travesty being that the team now has to rely on Urias, who isn’t ready. I don’t buy that argument, because I think the ability of a starting pitcher to make a lot of starts, to pitch a lot of innings and to pitch deep into games, while nice to have, is over-valued. Is it better to pay 90 million for Samardjija to be mediocre to somewhat better than average for 6-7 innings, or pay a fraction of that for a guy to pitch pretty decent to good for 5 innings and then let a solid bullpen take over?
Sure, McCarthy hasn’t lived up to his contract (and his tweets annoy me), and it looks like Kazmir won’t, at least this year, but a well constructed team can absorb those. That’s the whole point. If Greinke doesn’t pitch well enough to give him some trade value at the deadline this year, the Dbacks are stuck with him and that horrible contract. That team can’t really absorb that, so even if they want to blow it up and rebuild, they’re stuck. Since Friedman is s Wall Street guy, think of the Dodgers as more like a hedge fund. They construct the team as a way to spread risk out and be less susceptible to the downturns in individual expensive stocks. I will take four McCarthy signings if two of them match or exceed their value as opposed to one Greinke signing that doesn’t pan out. I’d rather assemble a stockpile of solid minor league pitchers who could possibly emerge as effective front line pitchers rather than squander them in an expensive trade.
(Piazza/Karros/Zeile/Mondesi)? It happens every 20 years, and this is 20/40 year anniversary.
geez, 20 years ago?!?!?!?! Does not feel like yesterday but does not feel like two decades either
Mark, we might need to double up on those drinks, trying to figure out which day I can get down there, keep you posted
Bumsrap is stealing my material…
–
Here’s a good Q & A from Ken Gurnick:
http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article/221297122/will-yasiel-puig-break-out-this-season/?topicId=27118384
Since he travels with the team, he has to be careful what he writes, so when you read it, you have to understand what he says and DOES NOT say.
–
It was Tony Jackson who wrote about the Dodgers Pool Party in AZ (pissing in the pool, etc.) and that essentially cost him his job as the team froze him out. Ken is a fantastic guy, but he can’t tell you EVERYTHING! Use discernment!
The 30 home run guys will be Grandal, Pederson, Turner, Seager.
.
The 15+ win pitchers will be Kershaw, Maeda, Hill.
.
Forsythe will have his career year.
.
Kershaw will win another ERA title and Cy Young Award.
.
Seager will finish in the top 5 for MVP.
I really enjoyed your post Always. I also agreed with all of it.
.
The Dodgers have their opening day rotation with Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, McCarthy, Ryu. I like that rotation to get the year started. We have all said the Dodgers need at least one long reliever and now they do with Stripling and Wood in the bullpen.
.
The Dodgers could wind up with a platoon in both LF and RF with Toles and Thompson in LF and Ethier and Puig in RF. There will be some lefty pitchers that will get Pederson out of CF and there is a chance that Pederson will take himself out of the lineup against all lefties if he doesn’t hit them. Small sample size this spring but I think Pederson has had good swings against lefties.