Barnes Loses It!

Good catch, my bad, Ryu needs 750 IP in first 5 years, he would need 400 this year so can’t opt out. 2018 is the final year of his deal and he is due $7M this year and $7M next year.

http://www.truebluela.com/2012/12/10/3748440/hyun-jin-ryu-contract-details

In Ryu’s rookie year he made 30 starts, pitched 192 innings, won 14 games with a 3.3 WAR. My biggest hope is he replicates that performance and what it would do to solidify the rotation. He can opt out after this season and with Boras as his agent they will be motivated to do just that. Even with Maeda dialed back to 30 starts and Kershaw being his normal self would lesson the pressure on Hill and Urias to go much past 20 starts. McCarthy can do another 10-15 and leave the remaining starts to only a few candidates. I admit my glass is way more than half full and it is only a prediction based on the healthy arms I see in late March.

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Cubs rotation last year: Lester 32, Arrieta 31, Hendricks 31, Hammel 30, Lackey 29, Montgomery 5, and 5 others 1 each. 11 starters but the top 5 made 152 starts. That was an unusually high number but they rode it to a championship along with their bats.

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Going with 15 starters last year had a lot to do with the health of the rotation, it was not what was preferred. If everyone is healthy and producing I can see 3 guys with 30 and 2 more with 25 unlikely as it seems now. I probably can’t do a 100 push ups at once but I’ll bet you 50 they use 12 or less starters this year.

I don’t expect Maeda to make 33 starts again this year. The odds that any MLB starting pitcher making all of his starts 2 years in a row are not good and his scans before the Dodgers signed him were not good. I figure that Ryu is probably not good for more than 10 – 15 starts – same with McCarthy. Kazmir will get starts and if Hill makes more than last year’s 20 (the second most starts in a career going back to 2005) I will be surprised. Urias will get starts – so will Stewart and Wood. Probably Stripling too.

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And of course Kershaw. And that’s already 10 starters.

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The Dodgers will have a couple of minor leaguers make starts – probably Oaks. And they will probably grab a starter at the deadline. 12 seems conservative – that’s already 13.

Apparently the Dodgers just signed 31 year old Jair Jurggens. I remember him most from his Braves days. He pitched 11.1 innings in the WBC for Netherlands and was respectable. Just like Masterson, this is strictly depth. The Dodgers needed starting pitching at OKC, and now have enough to keep the prospects down below.

Segedin, Davis, Bellinger, Holt, Dickson, and Morrow re-assigned to the minors according to Dodger Insider.

I think it is totally unfair for FAZ to torment us diehard fans with another couple of months of Hatcher, Please, PLEASE, package this guy in a trade so I can get some sleep and not have my saturday or sunday afternoon ruined by watching him take a match to one of our leads late in the game. Not trying to pile on, but this guy just killed me last year. (Baez for that matter too.) Follow the script, they both strike out the first two guys, next guy up walks, next guy up drills a double, next guy up goes yard. Like watching a slow moving train wreck. I like FAZ, just don’t understand the process sometimes.

Mitchell White showin he can pitch to major league hitters. Struck out Nelson Cruz on a 96mph fastball and gets Kyle Seager to ground out on a curve.

Hawkeye, thanks for the 15 starters last year, maybe I was trying to forget a few of them. I’ll still take the under 12. Last year Maeda had 32 starts, he should do that again. Hill had only 20 but hopefully he can do 25 or so. Urias had only 15 but he came up later and was babied, maybe 25 for him as well. Kershaw should be good for 32-35 if all goes well. Ryu is really the wild card and if he can get 30 they won’t have to lean on McCarthy too much. My glass is over half full projection would be 147 without McCarthy or Kazmir. Wood and Stripling should also get a few, maybe Oaks in Sept. Even if Buehler gets a look that’s 11.

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I agree with your take on the Toles vs Thompson, with Toles opening the season in LF but looking over his shoulder at Ethier. SVS makes a lot of sense and won’t hurt the team and he can play center. Thompson could eventually force their hand with Gutierrez. Kike making it just because he bats right and plays a serviceable CF just doesn’t help as much as Taylor but I trust Roberts knows best. Barnes is my call and not really close but who knows?

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Great takes everyone! Have fun Mark!

Seems like we are down to:

Barnes vs Wilson

Taylor vs Hernandez

SVS vs Segedin

Let’s not get too enamored with batting avg in ST when most of these guys don’t even have 50 AB’s. Last year JT tore it up in spring training and was awful the first month of the season. Half the people on here were screaming for him to be dropped in the batting order the first part of May.

These will be tough cuts. I do think Taylor has won a job though at least initially. Barnes has a higher .OBP can play multiple positions, and has experience working with the Dodgers pitchers. He’s entering his prime, but has options left. Wilson has shown more power in ST than his career norm. Hill raved about working with him. Can play only one position. Has lots of experience. I was not impressed with his throwing arm, but he’s not trying to impress me. When they traded Chooch, the Dodgers announced it was Barnes’ time. They also promised Wilson a fair shake at making the roster. Is this really a battle or they making it appear to be a battle because of the promise they made Wilson? Deep down I have to believe this is still Barnes’ job. He may just need to be told that to take some pressure off. The Dodgers have a young catcher at AAA in Farmer as well as a veteran minor leaguer in Murphy who knows how to work with young pitchers. I believe going with Wilson stunts the growth of Barnes and Farmer unless Mark is correct and Barnes gets traded. Wilson has been around a long time and no matter what he does in ST, the book is out on him. I’ve been wrong before so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Wilson on the roster, but Barnes knows what Honey is looking for and has more upside.

I wouldn’t want to make the choice between SVS and Segedin right now. At the beginning of ST I thought there was no way hell that Segedin could make the team. He has revamped his swing though and has been impressive. However, 5 errors and playing an inferior 1B to SVS may be his undoing. For those who put a lot of weight in the spring AB’s, let’s not forget that SVS has a .434 OBP. Segedin can play 3rd, but there is little use for him there considering Forsythe can also play there. SVS is better defensively at first and all 3 OF spots. So, I’m still giving him the edge.

I’m going Taylor, Barnes, and SVS but wouldn’t be shocked if I was wrong about all of them.

Love the exchange between Chase and Buehler.

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My vote for the last two bench spots : Chris Taylor and SVS.

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Toles vs Thompson for LF? I like both but Toles needs to learn better routes. I also like Trayce’s right handed power bat.

Buehler comments yesterday: After the HR, Utley came up to him and said something like “it was a long fly. I’m Chase. Get some outs.” Love it.

Avilan and Hatcher????? The suits must be looking at micro numbers on these guys. Neither one would be on my AAA team. This bullpen isn’t great. Maybe not even good. If Romo can’t go, it is BAD. I can’t believe it will stay this way very long. I’m thinking this might have to be a HITTING team. 5 runs a game should do it.

Geez! Yesterday I was typing a post when a friend called informing me another friend was in the hospital with pneumonia. I went to visit him and he thought I was with who he called to pick him up even though doctors weren’t releasing him. I managed to help talking him to stay in their care a couple days longer. Just after I left the hospital I got a call asking me to go back and let my friend know his mother was on her way there but by an ambulance. She was admitted also and now across the hall from him. He’s 62, I can’t say her age. It appears I may have a few errands I want to take on the next couple days. I just hope things don’t worsen for either of them. I’ll get with you all when I can talk baseball and opening day is 5 away. At least for that, Cheers!

Hatcher in the bull pen is a horrible decision.

Smith was promoted rapidly twice last year in 55 games, finishing up at Rancho. Each time he was promoted his average dropped but his fielding is elite. Wilson would be a Vinny like story if he makes it. Maybe Mark is onto something with Barnes.

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Hatcher has 9 lives! That’s funny until he blows a lead. He will be in low leverage situations until Baez is ready.

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2 long men is the bullpen seems prudent first time or two through the rotation. I could see all but Kershaw with a shortened outing on any given day.

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Taylor and Segedin get my vote but it may not matter. SVS and Kike have had past success and Roberts is nothing but loyal. However the success they had was before he arrived, interesting call. Toles over Thompson for now and let one play every day at OKC.

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Rick commented yesterday which starter will go down first? Tough call, don’t want to jinx anyone but Hill, and I’ll take the under on using 12 starters this year, last year was 10 I believe.

With the options given to Liberatore and Fields, pitching now appears to be set:

Starters:

Kershaw (L)

Maeda (R)

Hill (L)

McCarthy (R)

Ryu (L)

Relievers:

Jansen (Closer) (R)

Romo (R)

Dayton (L)

Avilan (L)

Stripling (R)

Wood (L)

Hatcher (R) – Yes Bums he has at least 9 lives

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When Baez is ready to come off DL does he stay down in AAA? He has options. I assume that a decision will be made by how Hatcher is pitching.

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Now I get some fun to try and figure out the OKC bullpen.

Well, today did not go as well as I was hoping for. I was looking forward to both Wood and Buehler pitching, but neither pitched well. I was glad to see Wood go six, but not so much the results. Buehler’s been hit before, and will be hit again. He just needs to get back on the bump and let it go. They will probably both get an inning this weekend.

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I know Wilson has had a good Spring, and Barnes has not. Barnes hit well at AAA, but that was as an everyday catcher. Every time he comes to the ML team as a reserve, he has not hit well. Wilson is probably not as good as he has played, and Barnes not as bad. Some guys can perform as reserves, some may not. Maybe what Barnes needs is to know he made the team.

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I still believe that Taylor has earned a spot, with or without Seager on the DL. He has clearly outplayed Kike’, and has earned the roster spot on the field.

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Segedin has had a good spring, but SVS has not been bad, and he is a far better defender in the OF, but more importantly at 1B. Segedin is a good #26. Unfortunately for him, the roster is limited to 25.

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Will Smith will start at Rancho but will probably get a quick promotion to Tulsa and be more fast-tracked. Ruiz will start at Great Lakes. He has a higher offensive ceiling, but also looks to be a good defender. Smith could be special (very special) defensively, but needs to improve offensively. Dodger catching looks to be in very good hands.

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Urias should get 150 IP, which should put him in LA late May, with a 10 day DL in August.

Florida beaches, spring break. I just saw a news clip on all the college kids partying there. Yeah, you’ll for sure be able to get a few in from what I saw. And with the six bedroom condo you could also have a couple hundred guests if you want. Have fun!

I thought I read that Seager would return for the final game ilofcthe freeway series.