Jumping to Conclusions

Also like AF to take a flyer on Kirby Yates

Chris Archer would be a typical Freidman hire, to add depth, high risk, high reward, he always does, most recently J. Nelson and Treinen ..

A one year deal makes sense, Archer doing a job as Stripling, he’s still young and still pulls hard, it wouldn’t be strange if Freidman goes for him.

Lasorda is improving according to reports. Arozarena arrested in Mexico. Country loses another artist this week, Hal Ketchum passed away at 67 from complications of dementia. He appeared in the movie Maverick as one of the bank robbers with Danny Glover. Signature song was ” Small Town Saturday Night”

According to MLB Rumors, Puig is looking to get back to the majors. He would fit the RH hitter we are looking for BUT I WOULD’NT TOUCH HIM AT ALL!!

How bout those LA RAMS!!!!

So, May, Gonsolin, and Ruiz for Snell?

Would you do it?

1. Kershaw

2. Buehler

3. Snell

4. Price

5. Gray

I am warming to the idea of making Julio Urias the Josh Hader of the Dodgers. 1-3 innings, setup, closer, whatever!

Happy Birthday to Boomer! Steve Yeager who is now my age, 72 today! Randy Arozarena was arrested in Yucatan Mexico on domestic violence charges for an incident involving his exe wife and daughter. On this day in 1953 Walter Emmons Alston was hired to be the manager of the Brooklyn Dodgers. Brooklyn headlines said ” Walter Who?”

I was worried the Braves would deal for Snell. Morton we can deal with. AF will make the moves we need as he said he would. As one wise water guru likes to say. Patience grasshopper!

We may as well get down to specifics, even now. Atlanta is our biggest hurdle in terms of getting into the World Series again. San Diego will be good, and one can never be sure of how a season will go, but it is very likely that the Braves will be the biggest threat. They came very close to beating us in the NLCS last season. Alex Anthopolous is smart, and he likes to go big, and apparently Braves ownership backs him up . We remember when he was GM at Toronto, and he galvanized the baseball world by picking up major talent at the trade deadline; and suddenly they moved from the worst team in the AL East, to one of the top two teams in the AL. But they didn’t make it to the World Series, and probably those additions set the Blue Jays back for the near future. Maybe he has learned from that, but it does not matter to us, because if he were to make the Braves really good for two years, and they beat us out, the fact that Atlanta might fall back after that, does not help us. You’ve got to be the best team in the league for any given year, and not gloat that this or that team spent too much, because someone else will do it the year after that.

So now the Braves have added Morton and Smyley, and Soroka is coming back. Fried is very good. They had to rely on their bullpen too much in the playoffs, but next year their rotation should be a good deal better. They lost Ozuna, but Anthopolous might pick up a major bat, as well. So the reality is that we have to improve, too if we do indeed want to win more titles. If we essentially stand pat, the Braves may well be better than we are. I think we all agree that without Betts, we would have failed in our attempt to finally win a title. Now we have him, but we do have things to improve, if we are to stay on top.

What we will do, is a guess, of course. We have been very careful in terms of signing free agents, or making big trades, until we finally consummated the deal for Betts. I think it is likely that we will not go big again any time soon. We do have Price coming in to help shore up the rotation, though I remain unconvinced that he can be close to his best years. We need bullpen help, we cannot go into next season with no legitimate closer. And we need a right-handed bat with power, and who can start at least 120 games. Can Turner do that? As to Rios, it is fun to watch him, because any swing can be a homerun, but he also makes a lot of outs, and it is anyone’s guess as to whether he becomes a star, or just someone like Pederson or Herandez, power without consistency. I certainly would not count on him to be our third baseman. As to second base, Taylor is serviceable, nothing more. I do not want to sign Hernandez; he may be a likeable guy, but his flaws are obvious, and dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder was unintentional, but an immature act. I was pleased by Pollock’s regular season, but not the playoffs, and I would really like to see us have a strong leftfielder. Pederson’s hitting in the playoffs could mean that he has turned the corner, maybe worth the risk?

What we need to do is to put out a better team than the Braves, most importantly for a playoff series, probably the NLCS, best of seven. All the rest of the season may just be a prelude to that. The Braves have stepped up, and we need to , as well. I think that we need another reliable starter, but there may be none available now, and I don’t really favor Sonny Gray. Can we get a top closer? Hader is the only one I see, and as others have mentioned, he may have lost velocity. If we could add a strong starter, we could move Gonsolin to the bullpen, though he is not at all proven there. Finally, there is a chance that Turner gets hurt again, and misses half the season., though it might be worth the risk to sign him. But we still need another bat in the lineup, unless we think that Bellinger is going to hit at least .280, and that Muncy will go back to his form of the two years before this last one. If we do nothing much, the Braves may well be the better team. I know that I said that during parts of last season; but they almost were, and they are obviously going all-out to try to win a title.

Good article Mark. Very difficult to evaluate what is going to happen when you just don’t have any inside info. I remember watching and thinking Toles looks like an mlb player he is excelling at every level. It’s a shame he couldn’t hang on. I was one of those who wanted Kenley re-signed very badly. He was so good but well… I could go further back Hanley Ramirez had a great run for the Dodgers but was not worth an extension.

I would like to c jt back but he was unable to catch up to the high fastball which probably means he is fading. I still think he can be a part-time player. If the organization likes Rios and we have a dh we could be set. A lot of ifs. I do find it interesting that lindor continues to be in the rumor mil. There has to be a reason for that. Covid has killed the financial industry but it may also have made players within reach. The Braves mean business. Thanks AF for training their gm.

I’ve always said to win a World Series somebody has to play over their head. If that is true who was it? Well obviously seager, urias, Betts, and muncy were stars. I think the most unsung was Barnes. He did the job on both sides of the ball and I would say played over his head. But, it was a great team effort in which almost every player that played contributed. Pollock was my lone disappointment, not as bad as last year but really was just there.

Seager definitely got the monkey off his back with his performance. If he stays healthy he could be our ss for the future if he wants. The way we shift it minimizes the athleticism a bit. I believe he is a fine ss and I would be happy for him to stay there. He makes all the routine plays and with our scouting and shifting he is all we need. To be honest he is my most frustrating Dodger hitter. His first pitch swinging drives me crazy. I like guys that work the count like muncy,turner. I am still baffled that the opposition continues to give him a hit table pitch. As great as he was I think with more patience he could have had an even better series. I still think he could improve his situational hitting. But, what a great hitter indeed. Who knows what AF will do but with our talent it won’t require much.

Per Bellinger Factcheck: False. Do you have a link or source that states for a fact that the reason Cody has tinkered with his swing was because of his shoulder injury? I hadn’t heard that the two were related.

In my recent critique of Cody’s hitting issues I stated that he was not smart. I wasn’t implying that he has a low IQ or has mental issues. It’s not my place to make judgements like that. I know several people who are very smart, but have done things that weren’t very smart. People do dumb stuff no matter what their IQ might be. And, that’s what I meant to address with Cody with regard to how he approaches hitting. I love Cody’s athleticism and just want him to maximize his talents. He should be consistently a top 5 player and he has the talent to do so. That’s why I get so frustrated with him. I want him to be great. If he’s great then the Dodgers are better. And, that’s we all would like.

In regard to Andrew Toles. I think back to when he slid into the left field wall trying to make a catch and damaged his knee. Little did we know that there was more to be damaged. He had advanced through several levels and reached the majors the year before. He was so much fun to watch. He was a can’t miss AB for me. Just a hitting machine. He wins the starting LF job the next year and shortly after the season begins he has that devastating injury. I don’t remember reading people calling for him to be cut, but maybe so. I think most were wondering what had happened to him and when was he going to return. Then we learned of his mental issues and that answered the questions about what happened to Andrew. To think that injury, that moment in time, possibly changed his life forever. It’s a sad situation that his family and many families have to deal with everyday. I remember his postgame interviews with Alana. She got the biggest kick out of his answers and how raw and unassuming he was. Some of the best post gamers ever. All the best to Andrew and his family.

MLB Trade Rumors reports that the Jays are interested in Turner.

Not a big Sonny Gray fan.

A flyer on Kluber would be interesting.

Snell has ace quality stuff. He was hurt and missed part of 2019. He wasn’t fully back until part way through 2020. The Rays handled him with kid gloves due to injury so he was not allowed to pitch deep into games. He averaged 6 innings/start in 2018 when he won the Cy. I would love to have him but the Rays will want too much for him and the Dodgers aren’t that desperate for starting pitching.

The Dodgers are not going to pay the salary for the likes of Arenado. They will try to retain Seager. They won’t trade their best prospects for Lindor or Arenado. Hasn’t anyone been watching the past few years? They went and got Betts because he was young, filled a position of need and was the piece needed to put them over the top.

Arenado isn’t young. Lindor doesn’t fill a position of need.

Per Ken Rosenthal, who in my opinion is far more worthy to pay attention to than Jim Bowden.

The Yankees remain the favorites to re-sign LeMahieu, but his offensive profile and defensive versatility make him a fit for virtually every contender. Consider two clubs that have not been publicly linked to LeMahieu, but might want him under the right circumstances — the Dodgers and Astros.

The Dodgers almost certainly would have no spot for LeMahieu if they re-sign Turner, which still appears to be their first choice. Their projected luxury-tax payroll already is within $20 million of the first threshold, according to FanGraphs’ RosterResource. The returns of Turner and another free agent, reliever Blake Treinen, would put them over the threshold unless they lopped off other salaries.

One might argue that the Dodgers should not be worried about exceeding the threshold, particularly when they might regain flexibility after ’21 with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, closer Kenley Jansen, shortstop Corey Seager and utility man Chris Taylor eligible for free agency. Then again, they are likely to re-sign Kershaw, spend big money on Seager (or his replacement) and absorb Cody Bellinger’s sharp salary increases in arbitration. Which is why Plan A for now seems to be Turner at third and Gavin Lux at second, with the potential for the DH in the NL only increasing Turner’s appeal.

The loss of Turner, on the other hand, would change the equation for the Dodgers, exacerbating their need for right-handed power. LeMahieu then would become a viable, though more costly, option at third. Even Marcell Ozuna might make sense as a right-handed replacement, if the DH was in play.

Per Rosenthal, signing JT and playing Lux at 2B is AF’s preferred choice. That makes far more sense to me than trading valuable prospects for potentially one year of Arenado or one year of Bryant, when they can sign JT for two years for less than one year of either. If Arenado wants to be a Dodger, there is a very simple solution…opt out next year and sign with the Dodgers. He probably would not get $164MM for five years ($32.8MM AAV), but he would get a lot of cash and get to play with LAD. Does he want to play for a championship for less money or does he want the Rockies cash?

Ha-Seong Kim gets posted tomorrow. Let the bidding begin.

https://theathletic.com/2206634/2020/11/19/bowden-free-agent-shortstops-rankings/

Seager put at #2 behind Lindor among 2021 FA shortstop. All are rated in this article.

Mark, your list of righty bats mixes apples and an orange in that Gleyber isn’t yet in the same payroll ballpark.

Snell has been both awesome and pedestrian. That won’t get the Rays Lux, May, and Bushe, etc. More like Gonsolin, Ruiz, and ?

The Lakers didn’t stand pat. Their team is much better today than the one that just won a championship. Well done Pelinka. Balls in your court AF!

Reds have stated they are open to offers for Sonny Gray. Some name pitchers out there for bids now.

Over all my years watching the game and the Dodgers, I have seen star after star leave in so many ways. Released, non tendered, traded, sold, free agency. And all of them were replaced. Not always by some one better, but someone always got the job. First favorite to go was Carl Furillo. Carl was released during the season in 1960 while he was on the injured list. That was a no no back then. So he ended up suing the team and never played or worked in the game again. Hodges left via the expansion draft. Snider was sold. Wills got traded to Pittsburgh, and Sandy retired. Big D retired in 69 and all of the Brooklyn connection except Alston was gone. So, if JT signs elsewhere, I will be a little sad but not surprised. Few players stay with teams as long as JT has been a Dodger anymore. 10 years in one uniform is not the norm, it is an anomaly. Guys come and go all the time. Turner blossomed late. Some do. Many do not. And there was a point made about Snell that he has had only 1 good season and it was a few years ago. This is very true. And even in this post season he had a 1-2 record. But a lot of that goes to the way he was used. And someone also said he only can go 5 2/3 innings. How many Dodger pitchers exceeded that number in the playoffs? He struck out 18 Dodgers in 10 innings. While I do not think he is the ace, he sure makes the team better. Especially since he would be changing leagues and the NL hitters do not have a book on him. Will AF trade for the guy? Who knows, but he will do his due diligence and see what it would take. Just like he will do on every free agent and players available in trade through out the league. They want sustained success, and that means multiple wins. I am pretty sure although they are relieved they finally won the last game of the season, they are not going to just stand pat while their opposition loads up. They did that before.

Good write-up, Mark. Yes, some ride an emotional roller coaster when it comes to players. Thumbs up or thumbs down, based in what is happening at the moment or the previous season.

Many leading health experts are now now saying that herd immunity may be possible by May, if everything goes right and people get the vaccine. That might bode well for fans back in the stands this summer.

Yes, Walker Buehler did seem a bit out of sorts early, but finished with a flair. But the Dodgers also had him in a bit of bubble, preferring to take it slower because of the earlier injury in college. Since I’m not out there not sure what his work ethic is or isn’t. But being around Clayton Kershaw is bound to rub off. This spring was strange, no question. Lot of uncertainty. Many thought there wouldn’t be a season.

Maybe with some kind of normal we will get to see Buehler at his best for an entire season. Definitely a future Cy Young winner.

If Tampa Bay is willing to trade pitcher Blake Snell I would think Dodgers would take a serious look. Andrew Friedman’s connection to the Rays, the team has the prospects to make a deal and it would make LA a difficult match-up in any series. It’s the kind of put your foot on the gas move that would make some sense. Much more than acquiring a Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado.

I think Mark or AC (or both), mentioned that, most likely, not a whole lot happens before Dec 2, when a ton of guys will become non tendered.

Then, I think, it’ll be like NBA free agency, where the money for vets will be scarce, so many vets will go ring chasing and sign with contenders on smaller, 1-2 year deals. Which will work out quite well for us!

Andrew Freidman at TJ Maxx? Oh, you can bet he’s licking his chops for Dec 2

Well taking on Mookie’s superstar contract seemed to work out pretty well! No way we win that title without him! We have no idea what the real financial situation is with the Dodgers and what the situation is with a Seager and Boras. But AF does. And he will act accordingly! So sit back and watch what happens!

Well the stove is not totally cold. Charlie Morton signed a one year $15MM contract with Atlanta.

The Braves signed Charlie Morton to a one year 15 million dollar deal. So the first two free agents off of the board are pitchers and both go to the Braves. Nice write up Mark. I made basically the same statement the other day when Belli was being pilled on because some feel he is uncoachable. But like you stated, none of us know for sure where their heads are. I have not read anything on Toles for months. I do remember that his family was trying to get him help after his arrest for trespassing. One cannot help but wonder how different his life would be had he not crashed into the wall in LA and gotten injured. Up until that point, he was very much in the Dodgers plans.

If we’re listing examples of “jumping to conclusions”, let’s also be sure to mention how many negative comments Walker Buehler received on this board for “not being ready when the season resumed”.

Nobody asked him what happened. Nobody knew what happened. Yet every expert know it all said it must be because he didn’t work hard enough.

That may have been more ridiculous than all of the above mentioned examples.

That’s a cool graphic Mark, is that your new “Water Filtration System”?

A couple years ago, some smart guys were acting like the salary cap was like Gandalf on the bridge…YOU SHALL NOT CROSS! Now, the team is valuated well over $3B, the debt service ratio is in the rear view mirror, the CBA is about to expire, and AF wants to be a pig. You can bet your sweet donkey that they’re gonna bring in a quality player or two…

Bryant and Arenado are reasonable guesses. Both are up for grabs for the right deal. Blake Snell could happen, but with Kershaw under contract and a good candidate to extend, Price under contract for a couple more years, Bueller and Urias have a few years of control and May just starting out and all over them can be as good or better in any given years, it doesn’t make as much sense as actually filling a hole like RH Power bat that plays 3B.

I totally understand that it makes a lot of sense to save a few bucks and bring JT back. I get he’s a fan favorite, the heart and soul of the team and all that. But, he’s also aging and has always had physical problems. Some can try to twist stats and pretend a 36 YO with physical problems is going to out perform much younger all-stars like Bryant and Nolan. Some can think that JT’s intangibles in the clubhouse somehow add wins over those just mentioned. But, that doesn’t back up the statement that AF wants to be a pig.

I’m going to hold out hope that AF improves this team this offseason and make it better to defend it’s title. Let’s be pigs and be the first team to win back to back since the 98, 99 Yankees. It took them 32 years to get another ring. Let’s turn that around and get another one next year and leave a legacy and a dynasty behind.

AF has stated that they want to be pigs. Does this mean we’re going to see some dope fiend moves? Are Snell and Arenado in our future? Will the Dodgers sign Trevor May? If so, and he relieves Dustin May during a game is it a May Day celebration?

Vaccine news is very good but 70% by June is doubtful. Around 30% of the population says they won’t take it. So that would mean everyone else had been inoculated. I suspect something more along the lines of late summer/ fall this could be reaching normalcy. However, we could see fans in the stands before then.

So, what are we supposed to do here if not talk about possibilities? All of us are just guessing about this stuff. Sometimes we guess right, sometimes we guess wrong.

And why do I only get to pick one? I want Arenado, Hendriks, Ozuna AND Lindor.

P.S. – I don’t think anybody believes Busch will start for the Dodgers in 2020.