Dodgers vs Atlanta NLDS Preview

Late Thursday night, Dodgers fans finally learned who their opponent in the NLDS would be…the Atlanta Braves. Game 1 is Saturday at 1:00 PM.  The temperature at game time is projected to be 100°. Los Angeles is currently under an active Extreme Heat Warning, and temperatures throughout the afternoon are expected to peak around 101° to 103° with a "RealFeel" heat index reaching up to 105°.  

With the exception of the three Phillies starting pitchers, Atlanta was a better team than Philadelphia.  Better offense, better defense, and better relief pitching. Offense wasn’t close.  Philadelphia was in bottom third in all slash metrics.  Philadelphia was also the worst defensive team in MLB per DRS.  Philadelphia does run more than Atlanta. 

Atlanta enters the NLDS with three healthy SP: LHSP Chris Sale, RHSP Tyler Mahle, and RHSP Grant Holmes.  AI tells me that Grant Holmes looks to be the SP for Game 1 and will go as long as he can in a probable bullpen game.  Holmes does not generally go deep anyway, and after pitching 2.0 innings on Thursday, he isn’t expected to go long.  Maybe they have an opener.  Do they go with LHP Ray Kerr to face the LH hitters at the top of the lineup, as they did Thursday? 

They do not like to push Mahle, so he is not expected to be available before Sunday, and that could be pushing it.  In his last six starts, the first two were with 6 days’ rest, and the last four on 5 days’ rest.  Pitching Sunday would be on 3 days’ rest.  Sale looks more like Yama and MadBum, so he could be called on to pitch any game, and presumably well. 

After Atlanta faced Jesús Luzardo, Cristopher Sánchez, and 4.0 relief innings of Zack Wheeler, Matt Vasgersian, John Kruk and CJ Nitkowski opined that Atlanta will not be afraid of the LAD pitchers.  I doubt they are afraid of them in any scenario.  Only Sánchez pitched more than 5.0 innings.  I do not think that will be the case with LAD.  

The 26-man roster will not be posted until the AM before Game 1.  We do know that the 4 SP for LAD will be Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow.  

It is believed the Dodgers will go with 8 relievers.  That will not be a burden as Games 1 and 2 and Games 3 and 4 will be the only back-to-back games.  Most are sure things, but there could be a couple of surprises. 

·      Late inning high leverage – Tanner Scott (L) and Edwin Díaz (R)

·      Late inning setup – Evan Phillips (R), Alex Vesia (L), Roki Sasaki (R), Edgardo Henriquez (R)

·      Middle relief – Jack Dreyer (L), Brock Stewart (R) 

I do not think AF/BG/Doc choose Kris Bubic over Dreyer.  Dreyer is high on Doc’s trust chain.  FWIW, Dreyer had a good post-season in 2025.  4 games, 4.0 scoreless IP, including 2.1 in the WS.  If a long reliever is needed, Sasaki becomes that guy. 

My biggest worry is Henriquez.  He had 25 BB in 60 IP when he was pitching regularly.  He last pitched nearly 3 weeks ago.  What level of control and command can we expect from him.  Doc is going to go to him, but will he be efficient? 

Position players are also mostly set. 

·      1B – Freddie Freeman

·      2B – Tommy Edman

·      3B – Max Muncy

·      SS – Mookie Betts (R)

·      LF – Teoscar Hernández (R)

·      CF – Andy Pages (R)

·      RF – Kyle Tucker

·      C – Will Smith (R)

·      DH – Shohei Ohtani 

Bench – C Hunter Feduccia (L), INF Miguel Rojas (R), Util Kiké Hernández (R), PH Josue De Paula (L), Util Hyeseong Kim (L).  JDP gives the Dodgers the thump off the bench, and Kim gives the team versatility and base running upgrades.  I am not sure how much Kim will be asked to run.  He did not run much at OKC.  I do not know the reason why.  He was 15 out of 18 base stealing with OKC.  He was 5 of 6 for LAD.  However, if JDP comes up to PH, Doc has Kim on the bench to play anywhere on the field.  

The Atlanta roster for the Wild Card series: 

PITCHERS (11): LHP Dylan Dodd, RHP Didier Fuentes, RHP Grant Holmes, RHP Raisel Iglesias, LHP Ray Kerr, LHP Dylan Lee, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Victor Mederos, LHP Chris Sale, RHP Robert Suarez, LHP Brent Suter 

CATCHERS (2): Drake Baldwin, Sean Murphy 

INFIELDERS (8): Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubón, Ha-Seong Kim, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dominic Smith, Rowdy Tellez, Luke Williams 

OUTFIELDERS (5): Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Brewer Hicklen, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Mike Yastrzemski 

I am assuming they will add another pitcher.  One of Luke Williams, Brewer Hicklen, or DaShawn Keirsey Jr. will be purged from the roster. 

Team offensive comps: 

·      Runs – LAD 801 (4th in MLB), Atlanta 742 (8th)

·      HR – Both LAD and Atlanta hit 204 HR (7th)

·      BA – LAD .257 (3rd), Atlanta .246 (10th)

·      OBP – LAD .338 (3rd), Atlanta .309 (28th)

·      SLG – LAD .424 (2nd), Atlanta .409 (7th)

·      OPS – LAD .762 (2nd), Atlanta .718 (16th) 

Overall team pitching comps: 

·      ERA – LAD 3.55 (4th), Atlanta 3.63 (5th)

·      WHIP – LAD 1.14 (2nd), Atlanta 1.24 (7th)

·      Runs Allowed – LAD 600 (Best in MLB), Atlanta 626 (5th)

·      HR Allowed – LAD 172 (12th), Atlanta 185 (17th)

·      BB – LAD 408 (4th), Atlanta 529 (12th)

·      K – LAD 1,521 (4th), Atlanta 1,350 (15th)

·      BAA – LAD .218 (Best in MLB), Atlanta .234 (6th) 

The Dodgers have a clear advantage with the starting pitching. LAD’s starting pitchers threw 879.2 IP (3rd most in MLB) while Atlanta’s SP threw 839.1 (11th).  The Dodgers SP had a clear difference in all of the key metrics, with the exception of HRs.  The Dodgers SP gave up 113 HR (20th most in MLB) while Atlanta gave up 111 (17th). 

Conversely, Atlanta had better metrics for relievers. Again, the big exception was HR.  LAD gave up 59 HR (3rd least in MLB) while Atlanta gave up 74 (17th). 

The Dodgers had a + 85 run differential better than Atlanta (201 vs 116).  The Dodgers were 2nd in run differential, trailing only Milwaukee (214 vs 201).  

Best guesses: 

1B – Freddie Freeman vs Matt Olson – I love Freddie, but this year going into the playoffs, Olsen has had a better year.  Freddie slashed .288/.362/.430/.792, 16 HR, 118 OPS+; Matt Olson .251/.321/.502/.823, 41 HR, 123 OPS+.  Olson has the HR and SLG advantage, and that goes a long way in the playoffs.  Olson has a better defensive metric in DRS and OAA, and it isn’t by a small margin.  Can Freddie hit more than just singles in the NLDS?  Slight Advantage – Atlanta. 

2B – Tommy Edman vs Ozzie Albies – Tommy was more of a utility player than a 2B.  Edman’s slash line - .247/.329/.383/.714, 8 HR, 97 OPS+.  Albies’ slash line - .237/.293/.392/.685, 22 HR, 87 OPS+. Defensively, Albies has a very slight advantage for DRS (+3 to +2), but Edman had a large advantage for OAA (+7 to 0) and FRV (+5 to -3).  Edman can play all over, while Albies is only 2B.  Slight Advantage – LAD. 

3B – Max Muncy vs Austin Riley – A few years ago (2021 to 2023), Riley was a Top 7 MVP candidate.  Max was last a MVP candidate in 2021 (10th).  10th was the highest he reached. Max slashed .252/.348/.490/.837, 29 HR, 128 OPS+.  Riley’s slash line was .219/.290/.364/.654, 19 HR, 80 OPS+.  Riley’s defensive metrics were ever so slightly better than Muncy’s.  But not nearly enough to make up for the large offensive differential. Advantage – LAD. 

SS – Mookie Betts vs Mauricio Dubón and Ha-Seong Kim – Due to injury, Kim was limited to 51 games.  Now that Kim is “healthy”, he has been starting at SS with Dubón starting in LF.  Will it continue? 

Mookie - .257/.326/.454/.780, 23 HR, 113 OPS+

Dubón - .276/.321/.399/.719, 12 HR, 98 OPS+

Kim - .116/.219/.140/359, 0 HR, 2 OPS+ 

Defensively Mookie is a +10 DRS, +7 OAA, +6 FRV, Dubón is a +1 DRS, +5 OAA, +3 FRV, while Kim is -1 DRS, -2 OAA, -1 FRV.  Advantage – LAD. 

LF Teoscar Hernández vs Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski – For the Wild Card, Dubón started in LF the first 2 games, moved to SS and Yastrzemski took over in LF.  There were three Teo’s this year. 

·      Pre-Injury – 51 games, .276/.348//436/.785

·      Post Injury for 1st 47 games - .221/.264/.343/.606

·      Last 27 games - .343/.425/.556/.980

·      Full season - .267/.334/.425/.759, 16 HR, 108 OPS+

·      Yaz - .224/.309/.380/.688, 12 HR, 89 OPS+ 

Defensively, there is no comparison.  Teo is one of the 5 worst defensive LF in MLB.  Yaz and Dubón right around par.  Teo has had a couple of good playoffs with the Dodgers.  I am looking past the horrendous defense for Teo, and giving him a slight advantage over Dubón, and a larger advantage over Yaz.  Slight Advantage – LAD. 

CF Andy Pages vs Michael Harris II – This is about as even as it gets: 

·      Pages - .274/.343/.468/.811, 23 HR, 122 OPS+

·      Harris II - .294/.321/.491/.812, 26 HR, 121 OPS+ 

Defensively

·      Pages - +20 DRS, +9 OAA, +13 FRV

·      Harris II - +9 DRS, +13 OAA, +12 FRV 

They were also close with SB: Pages 13, Harris II 12.  Pages was caught 7 times while Harris II was caught 3. 

There really is nothing that I can point to giving either Pages or Harris II an advantage – Advantage – Neither 

RF Kyle Tucker vs Ronald Acuña Jr. – The biggest advantage for position players is in RF.  Acuna Jr. may not have had a MVP season, but it was still superior to Tucker. 

Offensively:

·      Tucker - .233/.330/.385/.715, 17 HR, 97 OPS+

·      Acuña Jr. - .255/.345/.451/.796, 20 HR, 118 OPS+

Defensively:

·      Tucker – DRS -9, OAA -8, FRV -7

·      Acuña Jr. – DRS 0, OAA -8, FRV, -5 

This is a no-brainer…Advantage Atlanta. 

C Will Smith vs Drake Baldwin – This is a difficult one to handicap.  Smith was hurt most of the year. For the year, Baldwin’s slash line of .284/.358/.459/.817, 25 HR, 124 OPS+, which was superior to Smith’s slash line of .260/.355/.426/.781, 10 HR, 115 OPS+.  However, Smith’s injury may be a blessing.  He is not nearly as beat up as he usually is.  Since he returned from his injury, his slash line has improved to .290/.400/.548/.948.  Baldwin’s slash line over the same period was also good at .309/.358/.474/.833.  So, while the full season Baldwin might be an advantage over Smith, Smith might be stronger going into the playoffs. 

FWIW, Smith has a superior frame metric 0 to -1.2.  I do not like to compare SB/CS for Dodgers catchers because LAD pitchers do not know how to hold runners on.  I have not seen nearly enough Atlanta games to know whether their pitchers are better at holding on runners.  Smith is excellent with his pitchers.  No knowledge on Baldwin. 

I am sure Atlanta fans, and maybe more objective analysts, would rate the advantage to Atlanta.  I am going with a refreshed Smith.  Very slight Advantage – LAD.  My wife insists on this rating. 

DH Shohei Ohtani vs Dom Smith – Hopefully Ohtani is recovered enough from his injuries to be a significant DH.  Huge Advantage – LAD 

Bench – LAD - C Hunter Feduccia (L), INF Miguel Rojas (R), Util Kiké Hernández (R), PH Josue De Paula (L), Util Hyeseong Kim (L).  ATL – C Sean Murphy, INF/PH/DH Rowdy Tellez, OF Mike Yastrzemski, 2 of Util Luke Williams/OF Brewer Hicklin/OF DaShawn Keirsey Jr. – Often times this is where the difference maker comes from.  IMO, the Dodgers bench is better offensively and defensively, and versatility.  Advantage – LAD

 As indicated above: 

·      Starting Pitching – Advantage Dodgers

·      Relief Pitching – Advantage Atlanta 

I like the Dodgers in 4.