DO REGULAR SEASON RECORDS MATTER?
The 2022 Dodgers-Padres series may be the modern equivalent of 1988. Los Angeles went 111-51, finished 22 games ahead of San Diego, and absolutely owned the Padres, going 14-5 against them and winning all six regular-season series. Then San Diego lost Game 1 of the NLDS and proceeded to win the next three.
Some fans say yes, while others say no. In both cases, they are relying on "selective memory." Regular-season records matter because they indicate the relative quality of two teams. But they are a much weaker predictor in October than fans often assume, especially when you're talking about a season series of only 6, 10, or even 19 games.
The 1988 Dodgers-Mets example is almost the perfect case study. The Mets went 10-1 against Los Angeles during the regular season and outscored the Dodgers 49-18. New York also won 100 games to L.A.'s 94. Then the Dodgers beat the Mets 4-3 in the NLCS and went on to win the World Series.
Here are some other great examples:
The 2022 Dodgers-Padres series may be the modern equivalent of 1988. Los Angeles went 111-51, finished 22 games ahead of San Diego, and absolutely owned the Padres, going 14-5 against them and winning all six regular-season series. Then San Diego lost Game 1 of the NLDS and proceeded to win the next three.
The 2023 Dodgers-Diamondbacks example is even more brutal. The Dodgers went 100-62, while Arizona went 84-78, 16 games worse. Arizona then swept Los Angeles in three games.
And perhaps the granddaddy of "162 games don't guarantee anything": the 2001 Mariners went 116-46, tying the all-time MLB record for wins. The Yankees were only 95-65. Seattle then lost the ALCS to New York four games to one.
But sometimes the regular season absolutely DOES carry over
The 1990 Oakland A's were a monster, going 103-59, fifteen games better than Boston. They then swept the Red Sox 4-0 in the ALCS, allowing Boston exactly one run in each game. That's a case where the regular-season superiority looked very real in October.
And that same Oakland team provides the punchline: after looking invincible against Boston, they were swept by the 91-win Cincinnati Reds in the World Series. Baseball promptly threw the spreadsheet out the window.
Why the disconnect?
The postseason is almost a different sport because the sample size collapses.
Over 162 games, roster depth, fifth starters, bench quality, and organizational depth matter enormously. In a five-game playoff series, you might face a team's three best starters almost exclusively, while its weak No. 5 starter disappears. One dominant starter, one bullpen meltdown, one bad defensive play, or one three-run homer can swing the entire series.
So... you can use the 1988 Dodgers vs. Mets to delude yourself into believing what you think or want to happen, but you also need to realize that what happened in 2022 and 2023 is the antithesis of that.
The Atlanta Braves just beat the Philadelphia Phillies for the opportunity to play the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves owned the Dodgers this year. Does that matter? That's who the Dodgers play starting Saturday... I have a feeling that Jeff is going to give us an amazing preview of the series...
I will give you a definite "maybe" as to whether the Dodgers can beat them. Of course, you know who I am rooting for...
Sneak Peek of my book's front & back covers
I just OK'ed this yesterday:
Discussion (56)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Skubal getting the start in game 1. Many think that is a surprise. It is not. It allows Tarik to pitch game 4 and Yoshi in game 5 if the Braves carry a 2-1 lead into game 4. If the Dodgers have a 2-1 advantage they will pitch Glasnow. And then either Skubal or Yamamoto or both in the penultimate game 5. Book em
All considered, I'm glad that the Dodgers will be facing the Braves. Very tough competition. (And I'm happy for a Braves-loving friend who has suffered disappointment in recent years.) I want the Dodgers to earn the three-peat by beating the best teams. Meanwhile, the Brewers will have their hands full with the Padres. Milwaukee has the best record, but the Pads are the hottest team.
Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but Since Sept 1, the Braves have an MLB worst .585 OPS vs leftie pitchers.
That likely is one of the reasons to throw Skubal in Game 1
Mark, will there be an audio version? My eyes are such that I have a hard time reading. I am so looking forward to this, but then again, I’m afraid it will be painful to hear what you went through. A friend of mine is a prosecutor and has said in the past that their second greatest fear is putting a guilty man out back out on the street to do more damage, but that by far, their greatest fear is putting an innocent man in prison. So sorry for what you went through Mark!
First of all a WS win for the Blue is paramount to us and the team. Second, not losing to the Padres. Three, icing on the cake would be beating the Damn Yankees in four in their stadium. If none of that happens I'll root for the Brewers, a small market team "for the love of the game."
Bring on the Braves! Snell vs Sale in game 3 will be electric! We should be favored in LA and need to show up swinging the bats! Looking forward to the book Mark
Watching the 24 WS with Yankees to warm up for tomorrow. Muncy and Smith seem to have the same juice today as in 24. But how much have the big four, Ohtani, Betts, Teo and Freddie lost since 24?
My badgering, no pun intended, here on LADT is all in jest and just good fun. After all I'm highly passionate about the Dodgers. But that's all insignificant compared to your passion back in the early 90's for life and freedom. Your life journey is an inspiration to me. And since I am an avid reader, I relish the opportunity to dive into Mountain Mover. Thanks. Book em
Ten years ago today.
Tomorrow it'll be "time for Dodger baseball."
I'd be interested in reading that book, Mark. I've had things happen to me. It takes character to start over and reinvent yourself, especially after something unfair that ruined your life. I applaud you for that.
I have Kim over Call and Bubic over Dryer. I know Call had a ribbie double but neither will pinch hit. If so it will be a bunt and Kim is the better bunter, he's more versatile defensively, runs better and he's a southpaw. Leverage is what they want from all 8 relievers. And since Dreyer lost his in the 2nd half, it will be Bubic. Just MHO. Book em
So the official 26-man NLDS rosters must be filed before that game.
MLB typically makes the postseason rosters public Saturday morning, often a few hours before first pitch.
We shall likely find out tomorrow.
Here's my guess:
1. Ohtani 2. Freeman 3. Edman 4. Betts 5. Muncy 6. Kike 7. Call 8. MiggyRo 9. Smith 10.Feduccia 11.Tucker 12.Pages 13. Teoscar 14.DePaula 15.Yamamoto 16.Skubal 17.Snell 18.Glasnow 19.Scott 20.Phillips 21.Diaz 22.Henriquez 23.Stewart 24.Vesia 25.Sasaki 26.Dreyer over Bubic
Looking at the scheduled times for the upcoming series with the Braves. 10/3/2026 - 3:00 CST 10/4/2026 - 7:00 CST 10/6/2026 - 5:00 CST 10/7/2026 - 5:00 CST (If necessary) 10/9/2026 - 7:00 CST (if necessary) Love it with living in the Midwest. So used to staying up until the early morning hours in the past.
Another question about post-season success: Does momentum matter? Right now, the Pads are cooking. They've followed a strong second half with a beatdown of the Cubs. Over the last 30 days of the regular season, the Pads led the majors with a team OPS of .812, followed by our resurgent Dodgers at .796. The Cubs had the strongest team OPS for the season at .767 (just ahead of the Dodgers' .762), but over that last 30 days they ranked 13th with .732. Their vaunted offense was held to one run in 18 innings by the Pads. (In their respective sweeps, the Pads outscored the Cubs 12-1 and the Yankees outscored the Red Sox 18-2.)
On the pitching side of the occasion, the Dodgers finished strong over the last 30 days with a WHIP of 1.03, best in the majors over the Rays' 1.12. (WHIP is my favorite pitching stat. Like OPS, it respects the adage that "a walk is as good as a hit."). FWIW, the Braves' staff finished strong with a 1.18 WHIP over those last 30 days, while their hitters ranked 16th with a .718 OPS. Note: These numbers DO NOT include three games against the Phils. My friend the Braves fan likened the triumph over the Phils to an exorcism. Braves fans, he wrote, "would have entered a dark place losing a third time 5 years to the Phillies after winning the division." This should be a great series. Glad the Dodgers have the home field advantage.
The book cover looks great, Mark. Congrats! I hope you'll keep us apprised of Hollywood's interest. Which handsome young leading man should play the hero? I'm thinking Austin Butler. He was terrific as Elvis.