october has a very short memory
The Dodgers beat Atlanta 5-3 in Game 1 of the NLDS, and in the process provided another reminder of something baseball fans should know by now:
The Braves beat the Dodgers five times in six regular-season games.
Five out of six.
If you listened to some of the pre-series chatter, that was supposed to tell us everything we needed to know about this matchup.
Atlanta had the Dodgers’ number.
The Braves matched up well with them.
The regular season had already shown us what would happen.
Then somebody forgot to tell Tarik Skubal.
Or Teoscar Hernández.
Or Max Muncy.
Or Kyle Tucker.
The Dodgers beat Atlanta 5-3 in Game 1 of the NLDS, and in the process provided another reminder of something baseball fans should know by now:
October has a very short memory.
Five Out of Six? Who Cares?
Atlanta won the regular-season series 5-1.
That happened.
It is also almost completely irrelevant now.
The Dodgers lost two of three to Atlanta in Los Angeles in May and then got swept in Atlanta in August.
But postseason baseball is not a continuation of the regular season. It is a reset.
Different pitching rotations.
Different bullpen usage.
Different pressure.
Different intensity.
And sometimes, a very different team.
The only head-to-head record that matters today is this one:
Dodgers 1, Braves 0.
This Is Why You Get an Ace
Tarik Skubal was the biggest reason Game 1 belonged to Los Angeles.
Six innings.
Two hits.
One earned run.
Seven strikeouts.
Two walks.
That is not merely a good start.
That is exactly what you acquire an ace to do in October.
Skubal did not let Atlanta breathe. He struck out the side in the third inning and kept the Braves from building any kind of sustained offense.
Atlanta managed four hits in the entire game.
Four.
For most of the night, the Braves’ offense looked like it was trying to solve a calculus problem with a crayon.
Skubal controlled the game, controlled the strike zone and allowed the Dodgers offense to wait for its opportunities.
Then the bombs started falling.
Three Swings Changed Everything
Teoscar Hernández got things started with a two-run homer in the fourth.
And he did not sneak it over the fence.
Hernández hit it 431 feet at 109.9 MPH.
Max Muncy added a solo shot.
Kyle Tucker hit another two-run homer.
Three home runs.
Five runs.
Ballgame.
The Dodgers finished with eight hits, three homers and 17 total bases. Atlanta had four hits and 10 total bases.
That is the danger of this Dodger lineup.
You can navigate Ohtani.
You can survive Freeman.
You can get through part of the order.
And then Teoscar, Muncy or Tucker can erase two innings of good pitching with one swing.
Then Tanner Scott Made It Interesting
It was 5-1 going to the ninth.
This game should have ended quietly.
Instead, Tanner Scott turned the ninth inning into something resembling a fire drill.
Ronald Acuña Jr. led off with a single.
Then Ozzie Albies jumped on Scott’s first pitch and deposited it 432 feet away.
Just like that, a comfortable 5-1 lead became 5-3.
Scott did manage to get the next two hitters, but Dave Roberts had seen enough. Evan Phillips came in and got Austin Riley to ground out for the final out.
This is where I have a problem.
You cannot keep doing this in October.
Four-run ninth-inning leads should not require emergency relief.
Scott was given a cushion and immediately handed half of it back.
Maybe it was just one bad outing.
Maybe Roberts keeps going back to him.
But postseason baseball has a way of exposing bullpen weaknesses very quickly. The Dodgers cannot afford to spend October playing bullpen roulette in the ninth inning.
The margin gets thinner from here.
The Lesson From Game 1
For weeks, we heard about Atlanta going 5-1 against Los Angeles during the regular season.
And that record was real.
It just wasn't predictive.
Game 1 came down to the things postseason games usually come down to:
Starting pitching.
Power.
Execution.
And surviving the bullpen.
The Dodgers had the better starting pitcher.
They hit three home runs.
They doubled Atlanta in hits.
They won.
That is all that matters.
The Braves can keep the 5-1 regular-season record.
Frame it.
Hang it on the wall.
Put a little plaque underneath it.
The Dodgers will take the 1-0 postseason record.
Because October does not care what happened in May.
And it sure as hell does not care what happened in August.
The LA superstar hitters were nearly silent yesterday, but it made little difference as Teoscar, Max, and Kyle produced the thunder. The Dodgers evidently signed Kyle Tucker just for this moment in time!
Discussion (75)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I along with a VERY few others here wanted Skubal at the trading deadline and even predicted he would be a Dodger because Ohtani was hurt and shutdown from pitching at the time with Sheehan pitching like pure SHIT with Snell and Glasnow still on the IL with question marks at best. He may prove to be one of the main reasons we three peat. All runs came via the homerun versus Atlanta yesterday. Hopefully going forward we can score in other ways if we are to be successful the rest of the tournament. I DON'T trust Scott in any high leverage situations and rather see Vesia, Phillips, or Sasaki get the call depending what batters are coming up at the plate.
A few reactions from yesterday's game: - Love Tommy's D at 2nd base - Great to see Tucker smile (he can carry a team if he gets hot) - Still wondering if Pages can hit in the playoffs. His 3 SO's yesterday led the and he fouled off several pitches he should have hit (not to mention his bonehead ABS challenge). That was some of the easiest pitching he will see. - The BP is a weakness if we're in 1-run games. Scott has an ERA over 4 against NL Playoff teams. - I like Mookie leading off. - I like Max at bottom of the order.
If Sale doesn't pitch today on short rest, we absolutely need to go up 2-0!
Pages? I am beginning to feel like the Dodgers should consider trading him in the offseason. Just my opinion. There was absolutely no reason to challenge that strike yesterday. As it turned out, that challenge could have been terribly important in the ninth inning! Mookie knew what the situation was in the first inning. He knew that challenge could be vital later on in the game. Pages seems unfazed by any situation. Talented? Yes. Blinders? Absolutely! Another Ofer offseason and he might have a new home next year. Wouldn’t bother me if Chris Sale pitches today. Short rest and not having the home field advantage? I will take that every time. Hopefully Milwaukee wins again today. Hopefully the Rays win tomorrow. Really don’t care which team wins in the Sox and guardians series. Like them both. Tampa and the Dodgers! It will happen! If Teo has another great postseason, will the front office get rid of him? He’s a fan favorite. A platoon on Teo and Jdp? Never know.
Can we stop with one sentence paragraphs?
They aren't a good writing style, they position mundane thoughts as more than that and make reading choppy.
Yesterday's win means little if we don't come out tonight with the same energy & focus.
Pitching was fine except for a late hiccup. Defense was solid and baserunning made no mistakes. Offense delivered when needed, especially the added on runs after the first HR.
Need to he smarter with challenges. I hate it but it's part of Manfredball. Betts' non-challenge sent me through the roof. Also watching Ohtani closely. I still haven't seen the power swing although yesterday he looked better on his timing.
Snell can match Sale pitch for pitch if that's the match-up. Dodgers rise to the occasion when facing great pitchers.
Don't know if any of you watched the Padres-Brewers game. Brewers got all their runs on homers, highly unusual for them. The 9th inning drama was high. Stadium went nuts when Machado struck out. Then France absolutely crushed a ball that would have been a homer anywhere else, but it hit the girder on the ceiling of the stadium in fair territory so according to the ground rules it was in play, Churio caught it for the second out. SD complained and challenged, but the ruling stood. Rassmussen almost no-hit the Yankees again. A solo homer won the game for Tampa. White Sox shut out Cleveland. Some very interesting games. USC won by the skin of their teeth against the Huskies.
Been under the weather for about a week. But beginning to feel better. Scott made the game more nerve wracking than it should have been. Need to tweak your AI Mark. It has Tucker wearing Roberts number and hitting right handed.
There are some killers out there in other teams' rotations. Miz, Rasmussen, Schlittler, etc. The NL feels strong this year with all four teams capable of a run but maybe NYY & TB are underrated.
The announcers make a big deal about the 'bottom' of lineup coming thru for Dodgers. But Teo, Tucker, Max would be 'top' of lineup on other teams
8:00 PM ET FOX 1
Braves (94-68) (0-1) Dodgers (100-62) (1-0)
SP Blake Snell L 4-1 1.90 ERA
Confirmed Lineup SS Mookie Betts R DH S. Ohtani L C Will Smith R 1B F. Freeman L LF T. Hernandez R RF Kyle Tucker L CF Andy Pages R 3B Miguel Rojas R 2B Tommy Edman S
94° Wind 9 mph Out LINE LAD -212
NO OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT ON ATLANTA'S STARTING PITCHER
Brewers were 6-0 against the Dodgers last year in the regular season and were swept in the NLCS
Great article. They really should be the favorites to win it all.
'Raise your hand if you didn't want Skubal.' I'll raise my hand only because I didn't think AF and Gomer would trade for him. Didn't seem like their trading deadline MO. But did I want him? Yes, who wouldn't. Pages and Scott? Sorry I never bash Dodgers, I only root for them. Doc and the front office know what they're doing. So I'll let them pull the strings. Pitching and defense win rings, and we have them in spades. Out on the field there were only two mistakes and they were both pitches. This fairytale has 11 chapters, and the first one was a good read. A classic in the making. Book em
very important to win that first game in a best of 5 series though Scott made it kind of a nailbiter late with the tying run for ATL at the plate. As AVF wrote: I too do not trust Scott in high leverage situations. Too many hickups all year. Will be interesting to see if ATL starts Sale today. Tough decision for them. Sale probably will not be at 100% after working 1.1 innings on Thursday. But they hardly can afford to go down 0-2 in the series.