BRAVES AND THE PEN:
Braves have now signed 3 pitchers who will serve as late inning high leverage relievers. On Monday they signed Chris Martin to a two year $14MM contract after signing Will Smith to a three year $40MM deal. Earlier this month, they signed Darren O’Day to a one year $2.25MM contract. They also have Mark Melancon in the final year of his four year $62MM contract. Thus far, the Braves are committed to the following AAV to relief pitchers:
Mark Melancon ($15.5MM)
Will Smith ($13.3MM)
Chris Martin ($7.0MM)
Shane Greene ($6.5MM projected)
Darren O’Day ($2.25MM)
That is $44.55MM committed for 2020 for five relievers. Even if the remaining three earn minimum MLB salary, the relievers will top $46MM in salary for 2020. If the Dodgers sign Drew Pomeranz and trade for Ken Giles, their top 5 relievers’ 2020 salaries will approach the Braves top 5. But that is a BIG IF.
I can hear Mark, just because they were good last year does not mean that they will continue to excel (Smith, Melancon, Martin, Greene). It seems curious to me though, how one can say that they do not think that relievers who have previously pitched well will all of a sudden fail to get outs, and yet pitchers who have never been good will all of a sudden be lights out (Alexander and Garcia). It is possible, but I do not believe that it is an objectively based position. I realize fans are not supposed to be objective. That is AF’s job. But really, who would you rather have in a playoff game in a high leverage situation…Will Smith or Yimi Garcia?
With Martin signing for two years and $14MM, I have no idea what that will mean for Drew Pomeranz. MLBTR has him projected at two years and $16MM. However, as many as 20+ teams are checking on Pomeranz, so he is going to get considerable cash this winter. It is entirely possible that the Dodgers would have to agree to a three year deal as hot as Pomeranz appears to be. Maybe a Joe Kelly contract will do it. Also with $14MM committed to Chris Martin, that would seem that Ken Giles, even as a gamble, will be well worth his projected $8.4MM arbitration contract. But who will Toronto ask for in return?
MORE WITH GAVIN LUX:
At 21, Gavin Lux had a fantastic 2019 season. To be named Minor League Player of the Year, you have to have had a very special year. Gavin got called up in September (before expected), and now we will need to see how the off season player personnel decisions are completed to determine if he will be a permanent member on the 26 man roster. He has all of the skills and intangibles to be something special, and the Dodgers have every right to be wary of including Lux in a trade. Lux and May are about as close to untouchable prospects as the Dodgers have.
But the Dodgers are not a team on the rise where they have the LUXury of playing up and comers during a rebuild. You do not win 106 games and need to rebuild. Gavin Lux has the ability to win the 2B job, but he should not be given the job. While their ceiling is nowhere near where Gavin Lux’s is, both CT3 and Kike’ are more than adequate 2B and/or backup SS. If the Dodgers bring in a star 3B moving the infield around a bit, then Gavin can be a utility player or go back to AAA for one more year.
Regardless as to whether Gavin Lux is ready for prime time and an everyday position, I did read earlier this week where someone wrote they would rather trade Corey Seager and keep Lux up all year at SS. Never mind that most scouting personnel do not consider Lux a sure thing at SS, but more of a 2B. Also never mind that at 21 years 4 months, Corey Seager was called up to take over the everyday SS position and went on to hit .337/.425/.561/.986 in 133 PA. Comparatively, at 21 years 9 months, Lux was called up as a platoon 2B and hit .240/.305/.400/.705 in 82 PA. Seager’s OBP was better than Lux’s slugging at the same juncture in their career, and we are ready to write off Corey Seager? Then I read that a reason to jettison Corey is because his agent is Scott Boras. I have not heard that Corey will be a mercenary like Greinke or Gerrit Cole. As a fan would I rather Corey have a different agent? Absolutely. But if we are going to trade players because their agent is Scott Boras, then why stop at Corey. Don’t even try to sign Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg or re-sign Ryu. And you better trade Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias because their agent is Scott Boras. AF can negotiate with Boras. Boras has been on record complimenting how the Dodgers organization fairly treated both Ryu and Urias in their recovery. He had no questions about how they were used.
FORMER DODGER PROSPECTS BEING PROTECTED:
Scott Pfeifer was a 2015 Dodger 3rd round draft pick and former Vanderbilt teammate with Walker Buehler. Along with fellow pitcher Caleb Dirks, Pfeifer was traded to Atlanta for Bud Norris after Clayton Kershaw went on the DL with his herniated disk in June 2016. It has been a long struggle, but Monday Pfeifer was officially added to Atlanta’s 40 man roster.
Also protected and added to the 40 man roster was former Dodger 14th round draft (2016) pick out of UNLV, Dean Kremer for the Orioles. Kremer was really starting to take off when he was traded to Baltimore along with Yusniel Diaz, Zach Pop, Rylan Bannon, and Breyvic Valera in the Manny Machado trade in July 2018.
Earlier in 2019, former Dodgers 5th round draft pick (2016) Devin Smeltzer out of San Jacinto JC, was included on the Twins 25 man roster. Next year I would suspect that former Dodger prospects, Yusniel Diaz, Luke Raley, and Rylan Bannon, will all get considerable consideration for Rule 5 Draft protection in 2020. This bodes well for Dodger prospects in future trade talks for prospect packages.
Discussion (36)
Disagree, not disagreeable
To use an old cliche, I am tickled pink, about DJ Peters. Hope he does well and cuts back on strikeouts. I read that he was a very good defensive player. True?
There’s an interesting article in MLB Trade Rumors about the relief market this year.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/taking-stock-of-the-relief-market-2.html
A mostly uninspiring group of arms there. A couple of bounce back options to take fliers on, a couple of interesting names but mostly yuck.
If the Dodgers are going to improve the pen with outsiders, it will probably be guys we haven’t thought of.
I would be interested in Colin McHugh, Pedro Strop as bounce back candidates. I don’t see a closer to replace or augment Jansen that I’m interested in.
Good for Yas. Turns out betting on himself last year and signing that one year deal worked out just fine. I don’t think I saw anyone who predicted he’d get this big a deal.
Also nice to see another big signing so early in the winter. Maybe we’ll actually have a Winter Meetings worth watching this year except, of course, for Cole who will sign as he’s packing his car to head off for Spring Training.
Mark Feinsand suggested a deal for Mookie this morning: May, Ruiz and Joc. Said he realized that was a lot to give up but maybe they could get a few days to try to extend him (not gonna happen) and if not, L.A. is easy to sell to a free agent so they could always re-sign him next year. Am I crazy? No way I do that deal for one guaranteed year of Mookie. Would any of you out there do that deal? Convince me.
Grandal signs a 4/73 deal with the White Sox
I don’t have the stats/detail knowledge of a lot of writers on this site, but I do read a lot and have finally come to a conclusion about what the Dodger’s should go.
-AF is truly a visionary to have the Dodger’s farm system the only one ranked in the top 10 for each of the years the ranking has been in effect and still win 106 games and 5 straight division titles. I don’t know if that has ever happened before.
-You have to win the regular season first (we keep only talking about the World Series) and then I really believe a LOT of luck comes into play. The Nationals were the oldest team in MLB, with the dead last bullpen, and a lot of senior citizens that had career post seasons all at the same time. You can’t use logic to beat that. Boston had the same fluke luck with Pierce and Kelly. I know having two/three aces would be nice and that just seems to be the popular strategy recently. There have been a lot of World Series winners with only one ace (see Dodgers in 1988). If it’s your turn, it’s your turn!! Luckily we just keep trying.
-The one statement that always makes sense to me is “why would you make major changes to a team that won 106 games?”. As Dodger fans we are spoiled and should be more appreciative of the results AF achieves. If the Dodgers track record in not good enough the Pirates and Orioles could always use more fans.
-I am not saying we are so good we need to stand pat but please don’t talk about trading Seager before he has a full healthy off season, please don’t spend a fortune/prospects on Betts or Lindor or Donaldson (the only thing he has over Turner at third base is a lot more cost at about the same age and a lot less leadership).
-Enough preaching, I do believe everyone has the right to their own wish list and their opinions- that is actually fun. I am just pleased to know I will have a team ranked as one of the favorites to make it to the World Series. Many say we shouldn’t count on our young players coming up (we need to add established vets) but so far the ones that have come up have formed the core of the team and been successful. Why would this stop now? Why pay a fortune to GAMBLE on a free agent at the end of his career versus give lots of young inexpensive players a chance. Many won’t make it but we have such a large number to choose from the odds are in our favor.
Gavin Lux will be the starting second baseman coming into spring training. Those are the expectations of the Dodgers, Roberts and Friedman included. But he may also be given some time in the outfield because the Dodgers value versatility and being able to move players around.
How high is the organization on Lux? Off the charts.
Now, he could stumble in spring training, many have and get another month or two at Oklahoma City. But I don’t think the Dodgers expect that to happen.
How all this plays out probably depends somewhat on whether the Dodgers sign Rendon or Donaldson … or acquire a 3B in a trade. Although the debate rages on as to who the Dodgers pursue in free agency, the Dodgers won 106 games last year, have won seven straight NL West titles. What they haven’t done is win the World Series. Does signing Rendon, for example, change that?
Why didn’t they win the World Series? Bullpen? Yah, that was a problem, no question. But relievers have a sketchy past, good one year, not so much the next. Will that strategy work for the Braves? Didn’t work for the Rockies. Might make sense for the Dodgers to pursue Pomeranz and then look on the trade market for a couple of up and coming young relievers. Low cost, big upside.
When you look at the current Dodger rotation (Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Maeda and … May, Gonsolin, Stripling), the Dodgers have an obvious need. Some of the younger pitchers will be on innings limits and who steps up in the playoffs? I think Maeda gets traded if he’s not willing to move to the bullpen for the playoffs. Best trade asset the Dodgers have. Maybe they bring back Ryu, perhaps Hill. But that doesn’t improve their playoff chances and both have injury histories. Hill had been great in the playoffs, but he’ll be another year older and 2019 didn’t end well. I think I’d still bring him back on a one year deal.
So it would seem to be somewhat logical to pursue a big time starter like Gerrit Cole or another high level pitcher. Will they? Whether they admit it or not, lot more pressure on Friedman and ownership this time around. Best guess, they do something. Perhaps they go big. Those who cover the Dodgers daily have doubts. They point to history. If Friedman has never done this, he never will. Not sure I’d put money on that, but one thing is certain, the Dodgers won’ t be rolling out the 2019 team. Change is definitely in the air. Someone on the Dodger network suggested a creative contract for Cole, heavily front loaded. Interesting winter ahead.
What gives the Dodgers the best opportunity to win it all in 2020? That should be the only real question for Friedman and ownership. Everything else is simply background noise.
Now, here’s where I disagree:
The Braves Bullpen reminds me of what the Rockies did two years ago.
Let’s look at the pieces one-by-one:
Will Smith: If he has a good year, I would not be surprised. He will be 31 next season and he flourished last year in his first season as a full-time closer. I would not have paid him $40 million, but I do think he will be good at least for a year or two. I would not have minded seeing Will Smith in Blue, but I think the QO stopped Friedman.
Chris Martin: He will be 34 next year and has a career ERA of 4.51. He put up a 3.08 ERA for Texas in 38 innings but was over 4.00 for the Braves after he was traded. One thing he does have is great control. The jury is out on him.
Mark Melancon: He will be 35 next season and his best years are barely visible in the rear-view mirror. Can he re-invent himself as a $15 million setup man? I would bet against it, but you never know.
Darren O’Day: He is 37 and is capable of having a good year… if you don’t pitch him a lot. He pitched 20 innings in 2018 and 5 in 2019. As I said: don’t use him much!
Shane Greene: He is 31 and has a career ERA of 4.50. He is on track to make $6 to $7 million next season. He had a 1.18 ERA for the Tigers last year but put up a 4.01 for the Braves. I think he’s the later… not the former.
Summary: This bullpen is a potential trainwreck. Remember I said this. Memo to AJ, “AF taught you better than this.”
$44.5 million for 5 good relievers actually makes more sense than $30 million for one ace. I agree it’s unlikely that all 5 relievers will regress. Having that kind of bullpen with Atlanta’s offense sounds like a winning strategy.
And yes, Lux should be given the opportunity to start, can Muncy play left?
Let’s start out where we agree: GAVIN LUX. He absolutely will have to win the 2B job and he is not an everyday MLB shortstop.