With the addition of DJ Peters (OF), Mitchell White (RHP), and Zach McKinstry (Utility), the 40 man roster is set. We can all debate as to who we think would have been a better choice to be protected, but I have no quarrel with who was ultimately protected. AF could have influenced by a number of calls for a specific prospect or lack of calls for a specific prospect to drive his selection. He also knows where the team is in discussions for other players (FA or trade) and how that may have influenced the decision.
I have heard and read that both Jordan Sheffield and Cristian Santana are in top tiers to be drafted in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. December 12th is the Rule 5 draft (three weeks), so will soon know if the Dodgers will lose either one or anyone else (very doubtful).
The next critical date will be the non-tender deadline, December 2. I do not expect any Dodger to not get tendered a contract. I have read that Yimi Garcia is on the bubble, but that does not make sense to me. Garcia is projected to make $1.1MM in arbitration. The Dodgers are not worrying about contract dollars, and they do need relief pitching. Mark guarantees us that Yimi is going to have a break out year, and who am I to disagree? He will be tendered.
Let’s take a look at the makeup of the 40 man. In general terms, there are 21 pitchers and 19 position players. There also remains two restricted players who the Dodgers control but do not count against the 40 man; Andrew Toles (OF) and Yadier Alvarez (RHP). But let’s break it down a little further.
In the lists below AF indicates that the player was acquired during the Andrew Friedman regime, while NC means acquired during Ned Colletti’s regime. I only consider originally acquired as Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, and Kenley Jansen each signed extensions or FA contracts during AF’s regime. So if the purists want to consider all three as AF players, I am not going to squabble.
LHSP (2)
Clayton Kershaw – NC
Julio Urias – NC
RHSP (4)
Walker Buehler – AF
Kenta Maeda – AF
Dustin May – AF
Mitchell White – AF
LHRP (4)
Scott Alexander – AF
Caleb Ferguson – NC
Victor Gonzalez – NC
Adam Kolarek – AF
RHRP (11)
Pedro Baez – NC
JT Chargois – AF
Dylan Floro – AF
Yimi Garcia – NC
Tony Gonsolin – AF
Kenley Jansen – NC
Joe Kelly – AF
Casey Sadler – AF
Dennis Santana – NC
Josh Sborz – AF
Ross Stripling – NC
Catchers (3)
Austin Barnes (R) – AF
Keibert Ruiz (S) – NC
Will Smith (R) – AF
Infielders (9)
Matt Beaty (L) – AF
Kike’ Hernandez – (R) – AF
Gavin Lux (L) – AF
Zach McKinstry (L) – AF
Max Muncy (L) – AF
Edwin Rios (L) – AF
Corey Seager (L) – NC
Justin Turner (R) – NC
Tyler White (R) – AF
Outfielders (7)
Cody Bellinger (L) – NC
Kyle Garlick (R) – AF
Joc Pederson(L) – NC
DJ Peters (R) – AF
AJ Pollock (R) – AF
Chris Taylor (R) – AF
Alex Verdugo (L) – NC
I took some liberties with including Ross Stripling and Mitchell White as starting pitchers and Tony Gonsolin as a relief pitcher.
Overall:
LHP – 6
RHP – 15
LH Bat – 9
RH Bat – 9
SH Bat – 1
Total AF – 25
Total NC – 15
While the position players are evenly divided between left hand hitting and right hand hitting, the starters are predominantly LH hitting:
Starters:
C – Will Smith (R)
1B – Max Muncy (L)
2B – Gavin Lux (L)
3B – Justin Turner (R)
SS – Corey Seager (L)
LF – Joc Pederson (L)
CF – Cody Bellinger (L)
RF – Alex Verdugo (L)
With a LHSP, AJ Pollock (R) will replace Joc
Bench:
Kike’ Hernandez – (R) – Utility
Chris Taylor – (R) – Utility
Matt Beaty (L) – 1B, LF
Austin Barnes (R) – C
That is how I would make the 26 man position players before any player transactions. It is clear that the Dodgers need a big RH bat, probably at 3B, which move JT to 1B, Max to 2B, and either Gavin Lux or Matt Beaty back at OKC. I would guess initially Lux so he could hit every day. Beaty is going to be the LHH utility player for the foreseeable future as long as he is a LAD.
Right now, I would identify the starting rotation as:
Walker Buehler (R)
Clayton Kershaw (L)
Kenta Maeda (R)
Julio Urias (L)
Dustin May (R)
Bullpen (subject to a lot of conjecture, knowing it has to change).
Kenley Jansen (R) – Closer
Joe Kelly (R)
Pedro Baez (R)
Ross Stripling (R) – 2 options
Tony Gonsolin (R) – 2 options
Caleb Ferguson (L) – 2 options
Scott Alexander (L) – 2 options
Casey Sadler (R) – Out of options
Other relievers out of options:
Yimi Garcia (R)
JT Chargois (R)
It will be a battle between Sadler, Garcia, and Chargois to determine which of the three gets DFA.
Other pitchers and options remaining:
Dylan Floro (R) – 1
Dennis Santana (R) – 1
Adam Kolarek (L) – 2
Josh Sborz (R) – 2
Victor Gonzalez (L) – 3
Mitchell White (R) – 3
Strategies continue to change, but for last year the two teams with two or more Aces made it to the WS. Nationals (Scherzer and Strasburg) and Astros (Cole, Verlander, and Greinke). Dodgers had on (Buehler), Braves had one (Soroka), Cardinals had one (Flaherty), Twins (Berrios closest to Ace), A’s none, NYY none. The Dodgers can hope that Urias or May will grow into an Ace, but I would feel more comfortable if the Dodgers were able to get that 2nd Ace either in FA or trade.
FA Preferences:
- Gerrit Cole with a contract budget maxing out at $230MM for 7 years ($32.875 AAV) or
- Stephen Strasburg with a contract budget maxing out at $180MM for 6 years ($30MM AAV) or
- Anthony Rendon with a contract budget maxing out at $180MM for 5 years ($36MM AAV) or $160MM for 4 years ($40MM AAV), or
- Zach Wheeler with a contract budget maxing out at $90MM for 5 years ($18MM AAV).
- Drew Pomeranz with a contract budget maxing out at $27MM for 3 years ($9MM AAV).
Other FA relievers I think LAD will consider:
- Will Harris – max 2 years
- Dellin Betances – max 1 year
I would want one of the first four and Pomeranz. I am not a big advocate for Josh Donaldson or Nicholas Castellanos, but I can see the attraction.
I would be in favor of a trade for Frankie Lindor (depending on the players), as long as Corey Seager was comfortable with the move to 3B. I would not be in favor of any of the trades being bandied about for Mookie Betts. I am sure there is a trade out there for a RH bat or #1 or #2 SP that we have not considered. I have already written about relievers I would like to see the Dodgers pursue, but again:
Aaron Bummer, Ken Giles, Shane Greene, Jose Leclerc, Taylor Rodgers (I can dream). To a lesser degree, Jose Urena.
Players IMO who are most likely to be traded:
One of Kike’ or CT3
One of Maeda or Strip (or both if a #1 or #2 is coming back).
Joc
Rios
Garcia
Baez
I do not think that Kelly or AJ will be traded as their contracts make it very difficult to move. AF is not going to trade them and include cash. I think he would rather accept both contracts hoping for a bounce back.
My preferential 26 man:
SP – Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May
RP – KJ, Ken Giles, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Shane Greene, Caleb Ferguson, Ross Stripling, Tony Gonsolin
C – Will Smith, Austin Barnes
1B – JT
2B – Max Muncy
3B – Corey Seager
SS – Frankie Lindor
LF – AJ
CF – Belli
RF – Alex Verdugo
LH Utility – Gavin Lux
RH Utility – CT3
Final Bench – Matt Beaty, Kyle Garlick
That is my outlook. I am sure everyone will have different takes. I am guessing that Mark will pass on trading for or signing FA relievers, and be fine with bringing up all of the AAA/AA relievers. Yeah, Mark and I will never agree on relievers. We are all fans whose “fandom” has been formed from our experiences. None of us are morons, we just have different favorites and expectations.
Finally, one recently DFA relief pitcher I am hoping the Dodgers will look at is 28 year old RHRP, Nick Goody who was cut loose by the Indians. He had a great 2017, was hurt in 2018, and came back and had a good year in 2019. In 2017, Goody pitched in 56 games, 54.2 IP, 2.80 ERA and 1.079 WHIP. In 2019, he pitched in 39 games, 40.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, and 1.279 WHIP. I like his chances for a bounce back year, but I would not guarantee him a ML contract, and most are predicting he will get a ML guaranteed contract.
Okay, it’s your turn. Have at it.
Discussion (52)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Dodgers Extend AF:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/los-angeles-dodgers
I keep Maeda and Joc as they have performed in the playoffs.
Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com on the chances the Dodgers sign one of the big free agents:
“Do the Dodgers land Gerrit Cole?
–@JustinArgomaniz
I can’t imagine that happening. This front office has never signed one of the three biggest free-agent contracts in any offseason. The Dodgers passed on pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish and Patrick Corbin when each landed a nine-figure deal as free agents. So, I’ll believe it when I see it.”
I could see Donaldson at 3 Years $80 Million
Does this make Donaldson a great pickup or a bad pickup for the Dodgers:
As first reported by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson is a legitimate consideration for the Dodgers.
Donaldson, who turns 34 on Dec. 8, would provide right-handed balance for a team heavy in left-handed hitters (Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux). He also would bring an edge to a team that might benefit from such a jolt.
As the Braves discovered, Donaldson can be a bit of an acquired taste — as one club source put it, “he’s loud, in your face, an alpha who will test the room.” He went through an adjustment period in Atlanta, and Freddie Freeman talked with him at one point about better fitting into the clubhouse, the source said. But Donaldson eventually found his niche, and the Braves came to relish his daily intensity and competitiveness.
The team wants him back.
From Ken Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic:
At the moment, the Braves’ bullpen is easily the best in the NL East. Check back at midseason to see if the plan in practice looks as good as it does on paper.
3 moves to improve the Dodgers while staying under the tax:
https://dodgersway.com/2019/11/20/los-angeles-dodgers-3-moves-bolster/5/
Molly Knight wrote about what could have been had the Astros not cheated:
The notion that the Astros might have walloped Clayton Kershaw in that game because they knew what pitch was coming is especially painful. If Kershaw wins that game, the Dodgers take a commanding 3-2 series lead heading back to L.A. And if they win the World Series, Kershaw, with two wins — including a dominant Game 1 performance in which he tossed seven innings of one-run ball and struck out 11 — is likely named World Series MVP. The narrative that he’s bad in October is dead forever.
Clayton should sue the Bastards. Rick, William, and 2D2 get on it!
As I was checking out your list AC (NC vs AF) I was surprised at the amount of very good players from the NC era. Those, of course, were Logan White’s doing and in the four years he’s been with the Padres he has now built their system into one of the top three in baseball. I don’t think White has been given enough credit by the baseball community in general.
With regard to signing Cole and the salary he will want, I would be astonished if he settles for anything less than the highest AAV ever for a pitcher. Right now, I believe that record is held by Greinke who isn’t even in his prime any longer so Cole/Boras will be sure to top his 34.4 mil AAV although I have no idea how many years they will insist on.
I’m not in favor of spending whatever it would take in players/prospects to get Mookie, Lindor or Bryant this winter. I’d rather wait until they are free agents and then go after one of them. In my opinion we definitely need to wind up with one of Cole, Strasburg, Ryu or Wheeler and then add a couple of good relievers via trade, using Maeda, Stripling, Kike and/or prospects to get it done (but not Ruiz, Gray, May or Lux).
AC, who did you trade for Lindor? I have heard that the deal starts with Lux.
I like Anthony Rendon, a lot. But if I had a choice of FA’s, it would be Gerrit Cole. Kershaw is still a very good pitcher, but he is no longer an Ace, and we know that he was not reliable in the post season. Although, I am guessing that Houston’s cameras had a little bit to say about Kershaw and Game 5. I have no idea whether Julio Urias or Dustin May will be anything more than a mid-rotation level pitcher. Just because Mark tells us Urias will be at the top as well as May, does not make it so. It also doesn’t make him wrong. Both could very well make it to the top. But Gerrit Cole is already there. He should have been the CY in 2019 (my opinion). But 7 years for any pitcher, especially one at 29 is a lot to ask for. Cole comes across more as a mercenary than wanting to stay near home town cooking. And there never has been a question about his team loyalty. But when it is over, it is over.
The only question about Cole is his contract length and amount. I stated above that my budget would be $230MM for 7 years. Most baseball pundits consider 7 years to be the appropriate number for an Ace. Why? I would have to speak with the GMs or Presidents of Baseball Operations. Cole may end up tearing up his arm and then what. If you are afraid, get out of the front office. But if the going rate for an Ace pitcher is 7 years, then be prepared for it. Now it’s the dollars. I just saw an article in MLB.com about Gerrit Cole’s projections for the next seven years. Now this one was prepared vaguely scientifically, but it is still conjecture with assumptions that may not come true. But it is better than to just say that Scherzer and Verlander were simply anomalies likely never to replicate, and signing any pitcher for 7 years is a dope-fiend move. Although Mark has warmed to the idea of Gerrit Cole in a Dodger uni. See article below on Gerrit Cole’s projections through 2026.
https://www.mlb.com/news/gerrit-cole-s-value-projections-through-2026
Good, thought provoking post AC! Nothing there I can find to disagree with.
I say no to Lindor over Seager. I say yes to Cole, Strasburg or Wheeler. Rendon would be nice.
I say no to the suggested Betts trade. I believe Lux will be a very good player and you don’t give up 6 years of player control with a player as talented as he is, unless you got a guarantee of more than one year in return.
I recently read that Ferguson was going to become a full-time reliever. Perhaps, knowing his role will help him excel.
I think having a veteran back up catcher is as must. It could be Barnes, but it might be time to move on from him. I would keep Barnes, if I knew that he worked hard with RVS and his team over the off-season, and some of the instruction was starting to kick in. I like Barnes versatility and defense, but his bat has been anemic.
Get well Mark! After 65, your body starts talking to you in all sorts of strange ways. Take care of yourself.
Good article AC. Only comments I have is no to Lindor and would like to see a veteran mentor for Smith at catcher, not Barnes. Glad you included Ferguson though. Surprised he was a NC choice. Mark ….get well soon.
Take care of yourself Mark…I also believe Gerrit Cole would make the biggest impact; however, there have been some rumors that Rendon may be willing to accept a higher per year salary for less years in lieu of a long term deal. Given that would be the type of deal Friedman prefers, it may end up being Anthony Rendon. Either way, any of the “big three” would make our team undeniable better.
In terms of Gavin Lux, he is untouchable as far as I’m concern. He has turn himself into one of the top prospects in the game.
Get well!!!
Jose Abreu signs with ChiSox 3 Years/$50 million.
Well, I would not do that deal either, but I do have concerns about Lux and Will Smith’s “enhanced production” due to the juiced ball. They may be alright, but we cannot be sure of their production without an enhanced ball.
I do think Lux can adjust but I have worries about Smith… to the point of where I would sign a catcher who could catch 100 games.
Interesting comment last night from Bill Plunkett, who covers the Dodgers for the LA Daily News and Orange County Register, who said he believes the Dodgers will sign one of the big three free agents this winter. Plunkett, who appears regularly on the Dodgers Spectrum TV show, also said he thinks Justin Turner will be the third baseman in 2020, which would seem to indicate the Dodgers will prioritize pitching over hitting.
Plunkett usually has pretty good insight into the Dodgers and if he’s correct that would mean the team entering next year with Turner at third, Seager at short, Lux at second and Muncy at first. Some of that could change obviously depending on the trade market.
The big three include Cole, Rendon and Strasburg. Friedman, according to reports really likes Cole and Rendon. I think most people expect Strasburg to re-sign with the Nats, but who knows?
But which player, Cole or Rendon, gives the Dodgers the best chance to win the World Series? If healthy and playing anything close to expectations, the difference maker is Cole. But Strasburg could be that player, as well, and maybe obtainable at a lower cost and less years. The Dodgers are already built to win a hundred games and notch an eighth straight NL West title.
The consensus among those covering the Dodgers is that Joc Pederson and Kiki Hernandez are the most likely trade candidates, but replacing Joc’s numbers may end up being a consideration. But outfield is a position of depth for the team with too many players and too few at bats.
Maeda could also be in the trade mix, since his agent has already brought up possible trade as a solution to Kenta’s desire to be a starter. Would the Dodgers sign Ryu and a Cole/Strasburg in that scenario? If they trade Maeda, might make sense.
That means the Dodgers outfield would have Pollock in left, Verdugo in center or right, and Bellinger in right or center. Smith will be the catcher and perhaps Barnes backing up. Taylor would be the fourth outfielder.
If the Dodgers put together a prospect led trade, it would probably center on Keibert Ruiz since the Dodgers have a lot of prospect depth at catcher.
In response to Mark’s Mookie Betts trade question. No.
Get well, Mark, lots of bad stuff making the rounds.
I might point out that the Dodgers have a bad history in trading for Boston’s Bad Contracts
OK, of course, anyone would want Mookie Betts. The Red Sox would also like to unload David Price’s Dope-Fiend Contract.
Would you trade Gavin Lux for Betts and Price, knowing full well Price’s arm might fall off and you would only have Betts for 1 year?
Well, that’s one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that AF is the GM. He’s the top dog that wants the final say in every decision and his posse are all Asst. GMs.
The thing that strikes me about the list of players on the 40 man, is that NONE of the best players were big free agent signings. In fact, the best two players brought in from outside the organization are JT and Mad Max. Both, scrap heap players that turned out to be pretty good.
I like the 26 man, but I don’t think Shane Green is going anywhere. He was pretty damn good as a setup guy, and I don’t see the Braves signing more relievers, just to send a good one they already have in a trade. I would also prefer Rendon to Lindor, keeping Seager at SS. But, I doubt they will be able to get Cole and Rendon, although they could if they were willing to break off some of that cash. If they don’t, I would rather have Wheeler and Rendon than Lindor and Cole. If I had to choose between an arm and a bat, I would choose Rendon over Cole. My thoughts are that we have a lot of SP prospects, but no RH bats anywhere near that caliber.
Here we go…
SP – Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May
RP – KJ, Ken Giles, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Garcia, Caleb Ferguson, Ross Stripling, Tony Gonsolin
C – Will Smith, Austin Barnes
1B – JT
2B – Max Muncy / Lux
3B – Rendon
SS – Seager
LF – AJ
CF – Belli
RF – Alex Verdugo
LH Utility – Gavin Lux / Muncy
RH Utility – CT3
Final Bench – Edwin Rios, Kyle Garlick
I’ve always like Rios much more than Beaty. Beaty played more than Rios last year, but wasn’t necessarily better.
Pomeranz would be a perfect fit for the pen. I sure hope that happens, but have a sinking feeling that it won’t. I also have the sinking feeling that Sheffield will be chosen in the Rule 5.
Thanks for the “meaty” post to start my day. I anticipate several teams will be interested in Sheffield considering how many teams are looking for bullpen help, and he will have 3 option years remaining. I think he will be traded before the Rule 5 draft. Some team may take a flier on Santana, the Orioles come to mind, but in the end I think he will be playing at OKC in 2020. Garcia, Chargois, and Sadler have too much talent to non-tender, but being out of minor league options makes them trade chips. Garcia and Chargois in particular have great talent, if those 2 could only consistently pitched to their capabilities. Either, or both could be used in trades – possibly for Giles, or Greene. I agree with your final active roster, that is why I believe Tyler White will be DFA, or non-tendered; most likely DFA with team hoping he clears waivers and accepts an assignment to OKC.
Is Tyler White still on the 40 man!? I’d be surprised if he was still there on opening day, or am I missing something about his potential?
No wonder you were a bit under the weather Mark. Take the time to get well.
I have been home most of the week, with what I thought was a bad cold, but it just kept getting worse. Last night as my fever went to 104, I drove to the ER where I was diagnosed with influenza and pneumonia. I was released after 6 hours and with IVs and Antibiotics, my fever dropped to 99. I am on the road to recovery but will be home all weekend, so I might post a bit more. Man, that was rough!
Anyway, speaking of AF, Peter Gammons of The Athletic had a lot to say about him and some of it may give you some insight as to why no GM has been named:
https://theathletic.com/1378476/2019/11/22/gammons-how-teams-are-changing-their-culture-thanks-to-new-voices-and-and-eye-on-development/
Here’s the telling part:
One Dodger front office member calls Friedman’s leadership a “flat management style where no one plays the boss. Look back to how Bobby Heck (who drafted George Springer, Keuchel and Carlos Correa in Houston) and Carlos Hernandez were given the freedom to do their jobs so well; check Tampa’s international prospects. Andrew knows his own people.”
Friedman developed the culture from the time he arrived in Tampa in 2004. “What Andrew has brought to the Dodgers is a compatible organization where no one is promoting himself for a general manager job,” says Dodger director of player personnel Galen Carr. “No one works for someone else, no one works above someone else, we work with one another.”
In the article, they talked about Erik Neander winning the Executive of the Year and Chiam Bloom (Boston’s New Baseball Guy) said: “Erik is Andrew.” A few days earlier, Neander described Bloom the same way: “He is Andrew.”
High praise for our Top Guy and maybe you understand why a GM is not necessary.