Earlier in the week, I read an article from Dodgers Nation on the perceived struggles the Dodgers seem to have with signing elite free agents. There is no real answer, but a lot of potential scenarios.
And then there was a comment during the week, “If the Dodgers do nothing much at all, is that good, are we glad that they chose not to try to improve the team, while many other clubs did?” First I would take exception that the Dodger organization chose not to improve the team. They made a very credible offer to Gerrit Cole what was turned down. As it turns out on an AAV basis, the Dodgers offer was better than NYY who offered one more year. If the Dodgers had increased their offer, there is no credible source that indicates the Dodgers would have been successful. It is just as likely that Cole told his agent once NYY gets to the highest contract in total dollars and AAV for any pitcher from NYY, accept it. He is a lifelong NYY fan.
There is nothing a team can do when the player says they do not want to play for the Dodgers due to their Hollywood Lifestyle. The only Dodger I remember living anything closely resembling a Hollywood Lifestyle would have been Yasiel Puig, and he is no longer a Dodger. So I have no idea who Rendon was referring to.
So the lack of signing either Cole or Rendon (their choice) is tantamount to “not trying to improve”. Certainly other teams did improve. NYY did improve. LAA did improve. And the Reds improved with Wade Miley. Since the Dodgers were not able to get Cole or Rendon to sign, should the Dodgers have signed Wade Miley? That is the problem when you go “big game hunting”. You may come back empty
But what does that actually mean? The last FA class that resembles the current group may have been the 2015-2016 FA group. That group certainly had stars, and commanded large contracts in both years and dollars. How did turn out?
This off season is beginning to look eerily a lot like the 2015-2016 off season. Remember that was the year that the top 15 FA were:
- David Price – 7 year $217MM
- Jason Heyward – 8 year $184MM
- Zack Greinke – 6 year $206.5MM
- Justin Upton – 6 year $132MM
- Chris Davis – 7 year $161MM
- Yoenis Cespedes – 4 year $110MM
- Jordan Zimmermann – 5 years $110MM
- Johnny Cueto – 6 years $130MM
- Alex Gordon – 4 years $72MM
- Ian Desmond – 5 years $70MM
- Jeff Samardzija – 5 years $90MM
- Mike Leake – 5 years $80MM
- Wei-Yin Chen – 5 years $80MM
- Kenta Maeda – 8 years $24MM plus bonus incentives (up to $100MM)
- Matt Wieters – Accepted QO of $15.8MM
Justin Upton opted out of his contract after 2017 and signed a 5 year $106MM with LAA. Yoenis Cespedes opted out after 2016 and re-signed with NYM a 4 year $110MM contract, which has since been restructured.
Of that group, which one has actually panned out and justified their contract? Below are two charts; one for pitchers and one for position players. These charts compare the contract cost to the player’s value over the last four years based on fWAR (Fangraphs).
Player 4 year Contract Paid 4 Year Value 4 Year Gain (Loss)
PITCHERS
David Price $124.00MM $85.00MM ($39.00MM)
Zack Greinke $137.68MM $123.50MM ($14.18MM)
Jordan Zimmermann $88.00MM $39.10MM ($48.90MM)
Johnny Cueto $86.67MM $49.90MM ($36.77MM)
Jeff Samardzija $72.00MM $58.60MM ($13.40MM)
Mike Leake $64.00MM $68.80MM $4.80MM
Wei-Yin Chen $64.00MM $17.30MM ($46.70MM)
Kenta Maeda $34.35MM $77.00MM $42.65MM
Player 4 year Contract Paid 4 Year Value 4 Year Gain (Loss)
PLAYERS
Jason Heyward $92.00MM $48.10MM ($43.90MM)
Justin Upton $88.00MM $79.30MM ($8.70MM)
Chris Davis $92.00MM ($12.90MM) ($104.90MM)
Yoenis Cespedes $110.00MM $50.30MM ($59.70MM)
Alex Gordon $72.00MM $26.30MM ($45.70MM)
Ian Desmond $56.00MM $14.00MM ($42.00MM)
Matt Wieters $15.80MM $9.10MM ($6.70MM)
There are exactly two pitchers and no position players who have “earned” their contract. Of the two pitchers only one has overwhelmingly “earned” his contract, and surprising to many out there that was an AF contract for Kenta Maeda. Mike Leake has also thus far earned his contract cost, although to a much lesser degree.
I know many of you do not like to think of MLB as a business, but it is a business nonetheless that has to justify and support their payroll costs. If you want fantasy baseball, join a fantasy league.
I also reviewed the number of All Star games each of the 15 made in the last four years. Of the 15, only 6 were All Stars, and of that 6, only one was a multiple year selection, Zack Greinke (3 times – 2017-2019). The other five were Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto, Ian Desmond, and Matt Wieters. What was telling was that each of those players were selected for the 2016 ASG, their first year in the contract. Nothing since. Not a great return on the team’s investment.
I can hear the argument now that AS appearances are only a popularity contest. If that were true (and to some degree it is), then it certainly would appear that none of those players are popular enough to drive attendance. Another strike against the contract.
Of course we also know that World Series increases a team’s revenues which can offset some of that contract/value disparity. Let’s acknowledge that to be true. Of the 15 players, exactly two have been on a WS championship team, Davis Price (2018), and Jason Heyward (2016). While Price had a good 2018 WS, Heyward was horrible in 2016 – .150/.150/.150/.300. 3 hits in 20 PA, all singles, and no RBIs.
Out of the 15 top FA, only Kenta Maeda clearly earned his contract, and to a lesser degree, Mike Leake. There were limited AS appearances, and only 2 played on a WS championship team. Clearly, the top 2015-2016 FA were not sufficient game changers, and I would submit that these players were overhyped and overpaid, and certainly not worthy of the contracts that were let.
Now why am I comparing 2019-2020 to the 2015-2016 FA the current crop? The 2015-2016 group was a very highly thought of group and the contracts signed showed that. Many signed early as have done this year. The Dodgers were looking for pitchers in 2015-2016 as they are this year. The top 6 pitchers came off the board by mid-December. The Dodgers were obviously in on Greinke before the DBacks swooped in with a crazy contract. While the others were being signed, LAD was temporarily in contract with Hisashi Iwakuma before medicals canceled the contract. But LAD had lost Greinke and needed pitching. After the top 6 were signed, the Dodgers signed Scott Kazmir on New Years Eve 2015. That did not turn out very well, but the overall contract commitment was minor compared to the top 7 (including Wei-Yin Chen who signed in January). Still Kazmir was not a necessary contract.
Like 2015-2016, current year FA are signing early, and the Dodgers seem to be on the outside looking in, waiting for that great deal. What does that mean? I hope it means that AF will not sign a Scott Kazmir type pitcher to fill a need. The Dodger starters are certainly questionable. Urias, May, and Gonsolin may be good, or they may turn out to be overmatched or tire in the second half at their young age. Kenta Maeda will be a starter, and if history is any indicator, will not be as effective the 2nd half of the season. I fully expect Buehler to be a top tier elite pitcher in 2020, and while I know many out there do not agree, I believe that Clayton Kershaw was embarrassed by Game 5, and may actually alter his approach. Kershaw is already working out, and has apparently lost weight and is more flexible. He will be 32 next season, certainly not over the hill.
The Dodgers are still too LH dominant, but that can be remedied via trade. If you give any credence to Boston baseball radio personalities, the Mookie Betts trade is gaining traction. But so far the only two names that have been mentioned are Betts and Joc. This too will probably go nowhere, but Mookie in Dodger Blue and in RF would sure be a great sight.
There is probably a need for another (or two) legit late inning relievers. The only name that has been connected to LAD in the remaining FA group is Dellin Betances. Maybe Eric can call AF and advise him to ignore 2019 WS Games 6 and 7 and sign Will Harris. There are also trades that are conceivable, but not likely. Or AF may stay with his current roster of relievers, and tell us all again that they are a championship bullpen. Who knows this year maybe they will be (or not).
One thing we do know is that AF does not advertise his transactions, so he may do nothing or something clearly out of the blue.
While I would have loved to have had Gerrit Cole pitching for LAD, not at $324MM for 9 years. Rendon does not make LAA a WS contender. I have no idea if this current group of FA is as overpriced as the 2015-2016 group. It certainly appears that not only were the excessive 2015-2016 contracts bad business decisions, but it also suggests that they were also poor baseball decisions. We can revisit the 2019-2020 FA market again in 4 years and pass judgement at that time.
Discussion (83)
Disagree, not disagreeable
James, I love you man! I completely understand your frustration, the big dogs here will say our kids will win the World Series, what has been said for consecutive years, it hasn’t happened
If the Dodgers get Clevinger Ill bet you it’s a Dodger Yankee WS!
I don’t care who the Dodgers sign or trade for, if I get a chance to bet “any team not named Dodgers”, to win the world series, I would bet against the Dodgers.
Likewise I would bet “not Yankees ” if that bet were offered.
I think AF was all in on Cole. Cole just wanted to play for the Yankees and he and Boras used the Dodgers to up the ante for the Yankees. Nothing more he could have done. We need a difference maker in the playoffs and I think a top end starter makes the biggest difference. An ace along side Buehler that could win a couple of low scoring games in a series. Cole is that kind of ace and maybe Clevinger. I’m not trading Lux for him but I think we could put some kind of package together for him. A lot of his metrics seem to indicate he could be an ace.
What does going all in mean?
1. Does it mean that the Dodgers should have spent $350MM for Cole.
2. Should they have volunteered to move out of LA for Rendon?
3. Should they have spent $130MM on Wheeler?
4. Should they offer Donaldson 4/$100MM?
5. Should they have offered 5/$100 to MadBum?
5. Should they offer Ryu 4/$80MM
6. Should they trade Lux and May for Lindor? For Clevinger?
All Dodger fans are upset that Cole signed with NYY and Rendon signed with LAA. For all those that want to go all in, please define it and advise AF why it is best to mortgage the future for a CHANCE to win it this year.
It certainly appears that Donaldson is getting closer to signing with the Nats. According some, Washington is willing to go 4 years for Donaldson. I can read it now, how AF blew it again by not signing Donaldson. Never mind that JT is the LAD 3B, and was not as willing to move to 1B as was originally reported. JT was on The Petros and Money Radio Show and had this dialogue:
First, the question is asked about the potential move to 1B, “how did that come up, and did anybody ever bring it up to you?” Did Turner’s thoughts come across accurately? He first shared his thoughts on the idea of a move being out of his hands.
JT: “I think it got blown a little out proportion. I mean, I’m a team guy — I’ll do whatever it takes to win like I said — I just want to win a championship. At the end of the day, it’s not my job to decide who’s coming in here and playing, and who’s playing where. That’s Dave’s [Roberts] job, and it’s Andrew’s [Friedman] job to sign free agents and all that…
Regardless of how I felt I was going to haven’t a choice. If they signed Rendon and Dave wants me to play first, I’m gonna to play first I don’t have a choice.”
But the money quote came after the setup. JT: “I didn’t actually say it.”
For more than two months the impression has been that JT would welcome the move to first if it meant winning. And while that may be true in spirit, he wasn’t ready to pack up his bags for the move across the diamond to first base. In fact, it was a media spin on a halfhearted statement he made while the Dodgers were still playing the Washington Nationals… and Anthony Rendon.
JT: “I actually got approached by a reporter … he came up and asked me about Rendon being a free agent and whether or not I want him to come to LA and I’m like, ‘dude, we’re about to go play against this guy — I don’t have time to talk about this’ and I kind of left at ‘look, I’ve played all over the place my whole career — whatever happens happens and I’ll adjust’ and I think the headline to the story was ‘Justin Turner agrees to move to first base.”
Doesn’t sound like JT is keen on moving from 3B but would do so if it helped the team.
We don’t NEED to if we’re satisfied watching other teams celebrate at Dodger stadium! And Jayne no one wins the World Series of Poker without going all in at some point during the tournament
For what it’s worth David Vassegh said last night that he doesn’t believe Mookie Betts will get traded and doesn’t believe the Dodgers are interested in Josh Donaldson.
After all these insane money contracts this off season why would any player not want to become a free agent? I think drafting and keeping prospects at least the right prospects is going to be more important now than ever before.
Do we actually have a NEED to add a position player(s)?
Do we actually have a NEED to add a starting pitcher(s)?
Do we actually have a NEED to add a reliever(s)?
” Once we recognize the business aspect, the game is less fun.”
This is very true. I think this is the one aspect that many fans don’t understand. Baseball is a business. And business decisions are not always fun. In fact, they rarely are. A win isn’t always that slam dunk move followed by high 5s and chest bumps. Often a win is avoiding a mistake. Nobody throws you a “way to not screw up” party. Even though avoiding a mistake can be just as important as making a killer deal.
I’ll use poker as an analogy. Years ago I played a lot of Texas holdem. I had a regular Friday night game with the same group of guys. It was fun. Like anything, getting better had a cost. Losing a lot. I really don’t play anymore. Why? Because I got pretty good at it. Playing the game correctly resulted in some really boring nights. Really boring. 5 or 6 guys playing who are actually pretty good can be an absolute bore. $500 on the table, but we’re pushing around the same $10 pot of blinds all night. We couldn’t really get any bad players to come. Well, they’d come once and realize the rest of the table saw a giant mark on their forehead. Never come back.
You can only play the hand your dealt. And sometimes that requires making difficult decisions. You can land pocket Aces pre-flop. Best hand possible. Poor players barely hold back their excitement. They start dreaming about revenge against Carl who took half their stack earlier by hitting a flush on the river. They look at the chips on the table and already count them as their own. Then the flop comes down. 2 8 2. They bet. But they barely realize they just got check raised. “There still good. I’ve got Aces”. And they call. Freaking ACES!!
A good player lays those down. Aces don’t mean crap when you know, or should know, the guy who just check raised you has a 2. Your odds just went from 85% pre-flop to 35% post flop. A good player knows that. A poor player can’t give up the dream and will likely chase that hand all the way into oblivion.
Mucking a pocket Aces is no fun. No fun at all. But when the odds aren’t in your favor, it often has to be done. No high 5s. No making Carl pay for hitting that Spade on the river earlier. Just math. Boring objective reasoning.
It’s much more fun to just go all in and let er ride! That is until you realize the better players now have all your chips. They had less fun, but ALL your chips.
AD isn’t enjoying this. He’s not suppose to. He’s trying to get a win without making a big mistake. Just like all those free agents from 2015/2016. Sometimes the best move is to not make one. It’s just not very fun.
I give major props to AF for drafting and developing young talent. It’s the only sustainable way to run a successful long term franchise. But there comes a time where your missing that one or two championship pieces to put you over the top. That’s the advantage of having cheap controllable young talent. The Cubs got Lester, Astro’s got Verlander and Red Rox got Sale. That’s the kind of ace the Dodgers need this year! I don’t think Kersh, Turner and Jansen want to wait another year or two for May, Urias, Lux and all to develop. Let’s win this year! That’s my two cents
We are not yet to Christmas, and 27 of the top 50 FA per MLBTR have signed this winter; 23 of the top 31. Still available from that MLBTR list:
Starting Pitching:
Hyun-jin Ryu (L)
Dallas Keuchel (L)
Alex Wood (L)
Rich Hill (L)
Ivan Nova (R)
Drew Smyly (L)
Relief Pitching (all RHRP):
Will Harris
Daniel Hudson
Craig Stamman
Steve Cishek
Dellin Betances
Pedro Strop
RH Bats (non-Catcher/non-DH)
Josh Donaldson (3B)
Nicholas Castellanos (OF/DH)
Marcell Ozuna (OF)
Yasiel Puig (OF)
It appears that AF is exploring trade opportunities for both starting pitching and RH bats. I think he is very reluctant to go four years for Ryu. I think he would consider 3/$60MM, and expect 1 to 2 good years. I think the same is true for Donaldson. AF is very reluctant to go for that 4th year for a 34 year old 3B. I do not believe that AF has any interest in any of the three FA outfielders.
I have no idea what his plans are for relief pitching (if any). That has never been an urgent concern for AF.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2867253-best-potential-trade-packages-for-chicago-cubs-slugger-kris-bryant#slide0
Angels sign Julio Teheran to a one year deal. And ChiSox sign Gio Gonzalez.
I’m just saying instead of Betts and Lindor I’d rather have Clevinger. Who knows who’s available. That’s AF’s job. Find someone. I don’t think we have no chance since we’re practically given a spot in the playoffs in the West. But I don’t think it’s a good chance according to past history
I think the only question is why hasn’t this team won a WS? After 7 straight failures I don’t think the answer is just unlucky. It hasn’t been good enough and as is the 2020 team will continue the tradition. This team needs another ace pitcher to team with Buehler. I love Kersh but if he’s your second ace and pitching twice in each series then 0 for 8 is the end result
I think you could make a case for Greinke making a difference in 2017. He dominated the Astros that year, totally befuddled them. You could certainly make an argument that he could have helped in 2019. He would have definitely made the Dodgers better in those years. Certainly they could have avoided the bad contracts that came with trying to replace him. Dodger baseball would have been more fun with him than without him. Excellent pitcher, very good defensively and a pretty good hitter.
I have a question. if Greinke had been with the Dodgers in the 2 WS. Would the results have changed?
The new writer…. Would that be Ross Porter?
Wow. The 2015 free agent class was pretty much of a disaster. The mistake the Dodgers made was not just signing Zack Greinke for 7 years and $175 million with no opt out. That’s what the agent was pushing. Then they failed to extend him in the spring prior to the opt out and Greinke had interest at that time in an extension. Lot less money too. Then they had a deal done at around $160 million and were waiting until Monday to finalize it, here come the Diamondbacks with a crazy offer. The rest is history. The Dodgers end up with Kazmir and some other not so good rotation options. Not LA’s finest moment. Greinke actually produced and the Dodgers wasted a lot of money on faulty rotation types. Kenta Maeda has been okay considering cost and could be a really good bullpen pitcher.
It’s funny about Jason Heyman. Almost every analyst thought he was a difference maker and deserved what the Cubs paid. I didn’t see it. He was an outfielder with defensive skills, but his bat and power played well below that contract. It was all about the analytics and they got it wrong. I remember Matt Vasgersian was lone voice saying I don’t get it. Maybe Theo should have listened.
Hey, it’s Arte Moreno. You really need pitching, Arte. No problem, I’ll go get a big hitter. Yah, that works.
Do you think Cory Seager is enjoying the Christmas season hearing his name tossed around in all these proposed trades, most of which make no sense? Just a guess, but Roberts is probably spending some time on the phone.
The Dodgers may be tight lipped, but others aren’t and that leads to all kinds of crazy speculation. Acquiring Betts would be fine, but who really wants the David Price contract? Let the Red Sox suffer this time, no bail outs.
Would the Dodgers actually go four years on Ryu with his injury history? They still need someone to pick up innings this summer. No doubt, Friedman has something brewing, probably under the radar. Are the Dodgers contributing to all the speculation with false leads. That wouldn’t be a surprise.
Good column, AC.
Rendon mentioned Hollywood Lifestyle and he also mentioned his politics in the same interview. His decision probably considered both a little bit and some other things that he didn’t mention because people don’t speak completely freely, especially when cameras are on.
Hell, look at what Bum said about winning with the DBacks. Greinke said the same thing. Did the DBacks come close to winning with Greinke? Nope. Do you think MadBum knows that being in the same division? Yes. These guys just say things and they all have different reasons why they chose the way they did. Cole said it was a dream come true to play for the Yankees. Some choose because they were fans growing up like Cole. Some choose a team because their wife wants to live in a particular region, like Wheeler. It really doesn’t matter what their reason was, the bottom line is that a GM or PBO gets paid a lot of money, coming up empty is not earning your contract.
I don’t think that “earning the contract” is necessarily something that you have to do if the player makes your team better. Especially when a team is full of players that over earn their pay. The Astros knew that Greinke hadn’t “earned his contract” when they traded for him, but did it anyway because they knew he made them a better team. I have no idea how much more a team makes by playing in post season series. If you do simple math, 35,000 seats x $400 per person in ticketing, parking, merchandise and concessions would be a cool $14M per game which doesn’t account for any broadcast $$ or any other revenue streams. So, if you play just a few extra post-season games by signing that bad contract, you can see it isn’t all that bad after all. The title itself is priceless. Goodwill is a thing on the balance sheet as you well know. How much is a title worth in goodwill?
One could argue that this is how baseball economics works. When you’re young and good, you over earn what you’re paid for. When you hit free agency, you under earn your contract. If you’re goal is to maximize the value of your players, you would never bring up a 21 YO. Everyone would stay put in the minors so that their age 25-30 seasons are still under team control with arbitration so you can maximize the value of their production against the minimum salary you can possibly pay. Since baseball economics is what it is, it would be very rare that any free agent earns his contract. The team that drafts and develops the player always gets the player’s most valuable years, the team that signs the free agent always pays for past performance.
Changing subjects, I would really like to see a Betts deal come to fruition whether attached to Price or not. Price isn’t going to “earn” his 32 M per year for the next three years, but he’s still a very good number 2 when he’s on the bump. If you get Betts’ typical 6 WAR floor next year, you offset Price’s value by about 28M. And there’s a chance that both are game changers in the post season.
Ironically the player I see as living the Hollywood lifestyle played for the Angels; Bo Belinsky.