Have you ever played the game “Would You Rather?” That is where you are given two choices, neither of which are particularly pleasant. Here’s a sampling:
- Would you rather lose the ability to read or lose the ability to speak?
- Would you rather have a golden voice or a silver tongue?
- Would you rather be covered in fur or covered in scales?
- Would you rather be in jail for a year or lose a year off your life?
- Would you rather have one real get out of jail free card or a key that opens any door?
- Would you rather know the history of every object you touched or be able to talk to animals?
- Would you rather be married to a 10 with a bad personality or a 6 with an amazing personality?
- Would you rather have all traffic lights you approach be green or never have to stand in line again?
- Would you rather give up all drinks except for water or give up eating anything that was cooked in an oven?
- Would you rather go back to age 5 with everything you know now or know now everything your future self will learn?
- Would you rather be able to dodge anything no matter how fast it’s moving or be able to ask any three questions and have them answered accurately?
There “Would you rather” questions are endless and are meant to spark your thinking as well as be confounding. So, I have one for you:
Would you Rather the Dodgers have 6 Top 100 MLB Prospects or 40 Top Prospects in an Insanely Deep System?
I do not believe this is a hypothetical question. I think it is an accurate summary of where the Dodgers Farms System ranks right about now. The Dodgers only have two or three TOP 100 Prospects. In the past, they have had as many as six. Last year they were rated a Top 5 Farm System. In my opinion, once you are Top 5, it’s highly subjective what your final ranking is… whether it be #2, #4 or #5. You are still a Top 5 Farm System.
So, that begs the question: Are the Dodgers a Top Five Farms System? Yesterday Jeff gave us a report from Baseball America, wherein Kyle Glazer of BA wrote this:
“The top of the Dodgers system isn’t as strong but it’s for the right reasons – they graduated their top four prospects last year to the majors, which is the point of all this. The strength of the system this year is its depth. You go all the way down to the late 20s and you’re looking at players who might be top 10 in some other systems. It’s a really good system still with a lot of good players. As for the Top 100, I think we’ll see the top three in there, but that’s my opinion and my colleagues may or may not agree. We’ll see how the final list shakes out once everyone’s input is gathered and front office officials provide their feedback.
Alex De Jesus, Kendall Williams, Jimmy Lewis, Leonel Valera, Landon Knack, Jerming Rosario, Yeiner Fernandez, Nick Robertson…all are breakout candidates who could shoot up in the next year. (Some of those guys are in the top 30, some aren’t.) Those are just the main candidates. This system is insanely deep in quality players who could break out in a big way.”
First of all, we need to remember that all of the above prospects are just that: PROSPECTS… maybe even SUSPECTS! That’s because you never know how they will develop. Luis Rodriguez was highly regarded as an 18-year-old in 2020, but has now fallen out of favor for several reasons. One of three things will happen: (1) He will stay there; (2) He will improve; or (3) He will continue his decline. We don’t know what we don’t know!
In 2018, here were the Dodgers Top 30 Prospects (According to Baseball America): By the way, I have every BA Prospect Handbook back to the beginning – 2000 to 2020.
- Walker Buehler
- Alex Verdugo
- Keibert Ruiz
- Mitch White
- Yadier Alvarez
- Yusniel Diaz
- Jeren Kendall
- DJ Peters
- Will Smith
- Dennis Santana
- Dustin May
- Edwin Rios
- Gavin Lux
- Jordon Sheffield
- Trevor Oaks
- Christian Santana
- Starline Heredia
- Conner Wong
- Morgan Cooper
- Caleb Ferguson
- Matt Beaty
- Imani Abdullah
- Kyle Farmer
- James Marinan
- Josh Sborz
- Luke Raley
- Tim LoCastro
- Errol Robinson
- Drew Jackson
- Yasiel Sierra
Some are gone, some are out of baseball or traded, but over half (16) have made it to the show. Not all are with the Dodgers, but if the Dodgers can have a 50% success rate on prospects making it to the show, everything will be just fine.
So far, four of these players look to be All-Stars (at least occasionally), and several others look to be solid players. Harold wrote about Nick Robertson yesterday, who was drafted as a reliever and likely will remain a reliever. He will be “fast-tracked” to the Show and I think you will see a lot more of this. Rather than go out and sign expensive relievers, paying for their history, draft and develop your own and save a lot of money. It makes a lot of sense.
Here’s the thing: If the Dodgers have the depth we think they do… and they really do… then the odds are about a third to half will make it to the show and at least two or three will be All-Stars… well if you have the depth the Dodgers do, maybe three to five will be All-Stars, so Would you Rather…?
A Sticky Subject – Watch This!
Yadiar Molina is so good defensively that he doesn’t need a glove. This is a big deal right about now and I think there will be some closure on this soon. Too much conjecture to talk about it now.
Put May and Gonsolin in the Pen
Did you realize that in 2010 and 2011, Chris Sale was a bullpen piece? He pitched nearly 100 innings in the bullpen those two years (71 in 2011) and to this day, has a better ERA as a reliever than a starter. Of course, he was a very, very good starter, but the point is: He started out his MLB career in the bullpen and even notched 12 saves, which is 9 more than the number of his complete games.
I see no reason why Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and/or Julio Urias could not flourish in the bullpen for the Dodgers in 2021. In addition, Edwin Uceta, Mitch White, and Josiah Gray may be better than any free agent reliever out there. I am not saying that they all will be in the bullpen, but some of them will be, and all of them could be. Oh, so could Gerardo Carrillo… and there might be some others that I don’t foresee. I can’t see all that insane depth.
For the record, due to the insane depth, I think the Dodgers are a Top 5 Farm System.
You Should Have Saved That Micky Mantle Card:
This is from TMZ:
MICKEY MANTLE BASEBALL CARD SELLS FOR $5.2 MILLION… Sets All-Time Record
Discussion (89)
Disagree, not disagreeable
First Baez, and now Wood. I did not believe either was coming back to LA, so I am not surprised. Of our free agents we have retained Trienen and Nelson. Joc, Kike, JT and McGee still on the market. I am not sure who AF has in his sights. But I would bet when the shoe drops, it will surprise us all.
Dodgers and Floro avoid arbitration. 1 year – $975K.
Apparently the latest rumors have LAD out of the DJLM sweepstakes. Who knows why, but it was always a major LONGSHOT that he would sign with the Dodgers. DJLM will re-sign with NYY. I know teams will bid the price up on certain free agents, but no team likes to be used to build up the contract knowing they have no chance to sign the player. That is how Toronto and probably the Dodgers feel.
If Washington, NYM, Toronto, or Texas guarantee JT three years, I am not confident that AF will match it.
The Dodgers are checking in on Ozuna, but are not serious contenders to sign Marcell.
The Dodgers are interested in Brad Hand, but only on a one year deal. The Mets are also interested, but also only on a one year deal. Hand reportedly has more than one multi-year offer. Are the Phillies one?
Kirby Yates? The Padres are very much interested. If it comes down to the best one year deal, I am betting that SD will win that deal.
Cincinnati reportedly insisted on Washington Nationals pitcher prospects Jackson Rutledge (#1) and Cade Cavalli (#2) as the return package for Eugenio Suarez. We know the initial request, and we know what Washington was not willing to give up. Suarez will be with Cincinnati once they hit ST.
If the Dodgers want a difference maker from Cincinnati, they are going to need to not only give up prospects, but they are going to need to take on Nick Castellanos or Mike Moustakas. They might as well sign a free agent.
I am guessing that AF is not done playing with the roster, but what he has up his sleeve is probably going to be a surprise. A good surprise? A not so good surprise?
Meanwhile, the Padres are the favorite to sign Masahiro Tanaka. Yes, he has a slight tear in his UCL, but he has had that since he was in Japan. He is not an Ace, but he will be a great addition to the back end of the rotation and they would not have to include Morejon as a starter. It also gives them insurance if Lamet is unexpectedly not ready to go. They are also the favorite to sign Kirby Yates. The Padres have nearly $50MM space before they hit CBT. The Dodgers have a little more than $12MM.
Alex Wood is now officially an ex-Dodger and since you folks refuse to let anyone sign with the Astros he signed with the Giants.
One year/3 mil with another 3 possible in incentives.
I think it’s a good move for Alex. He’ll have plenty of opportunity to show he can still start up there. He would never have gotten that chance with us in 2021.
Hated ones signed Alex Wood 1 yr $3mil w incentives
Give DJLM his 5 year deal. He’s the same age Turner was when you gave him 4 years and you’re ready to give him 2 more. DJLM can be moved to DH the final year if need be.
Sign Turner 2 Years club option for a third. If he balks, you put DJLM at third. If you sign both, DJLM at 2B, Turner/Rios at 3B, Pollack & Lux duke it out in ST for left field.
Seeing names like Yadier Alvarez and Jeren Kendall in the top 7 tells us all what a crapshoot Top Prospect lists are. I love them, research them, play with them, but if the experts are not experts, how can I expect to be. And BTW, I am not talking about the journalists. I am talking about the scouts, coaches, instructors, and player development personnel that the journalists talk to. While I recognize that Kyle Glaser is a journalist, methinks he can scout prospects and write up scouting reports better than we mere fans can. How many here have sat with Marty Lamb to learn what it is that scouts look for. How many here can call Marty Lamb and have him pick up the phone. I am fortunate that I have former ML players and agents I have talked with. I am also fortunate that my son can get me in contact with a lot more of these guys, but I choose not to ask him to do that.
It is hard to miss on Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo, but when Morgan Cooper is #19 and has yet to throw a pitch as a professional, you know a lot of guesswork goes into the lists. Imani Abdullah who took his bonus money ($650,000), and after 72.1 IP in 2016, proceeds to pitch a combined 20.1 IP over the next two years. And then retires. Yaisel Sierra? The only think I like about Sierra is that 2021 is the last year LAD has to pay him ($8.5MM).
I do not believe the Dodgers are 40 deep in prospects who will have an impact at the ML level, but if they were, I appreciate the depth that the team has. But the depth is not sufficient if the stars are not there. So yes, the starting rotation can pull from…Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias, May, Gonsolin, White, and Gray. But what would they be without Kershaw and Buehler? Would the Dodgers have been able to get Mookie without top prospects like Verdugo, Downs, and Wong? It is great to have CT3 and Zach McKinstry, but where would they be without Corey Seager. We have already discussed how weak the team is in OF depth? Where would they be without Bellinger. Kershaw, Seager, Urias, Joc, Bellinger, Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Verdugo, May, and Downs were top 50 prospects. And I am undoubtedly missing some. In 2014, Seager, Urias, and Joc were 13-15 respectively. They also had Grant Holmes at 99. Yusniel Diaz got as high as 52, Willie Calhoun got as high as 60, and Jeren Kendall as high as 74. In the 2020 version, JoJo Gray was 62, and Keibert Ruiz was 68. Ruiz dropped 35 spots in top 100 and 3 spots in top 10 catchers (from #3 to #6).
Now that the stars are becoming FA, who replaces them if they go elsewhere? There is nobody in the system who can replace Seager. There is nobody in the system who can replace Bellinger. Even though by trade, there is nobody in the system to replace Betts. Who replaces Kershaw? I am not saying who can the Dodgers get into the rotation, but rather who can get to the top of the rotation. Remember, Urias was as high as #14 in 2014, and his name is being bandied about as a reliever on this site. May is a #5 and Gonsolin a #6. Gray’s ceiling is a #3, but most think he is a #4 or #5. He needs to improve a 3rd pitch (either curve or change) to have one above average pitch (fastball at 60) and two slightly above average pitches (slider and ???). Where Gray excels is with his control. Mitch White is a Ross Stripling clone. He has three 55 pitches but needs to improve his control. He showed signs of improvement last year, but still not a top of the rotation pitcher. White is 26 and Gonsolin is 27. Not the age you want starters to break into the rotation for a WS contender. The team is finding it hard to replace a 36 year old 3B. They do not have a RH bat ready to join the ML roster.
The one prospect that is considered a potential star by the evaluators is the player so many on this site have given up on, Gavin Lux. He is 23 and has accumulated all of 151 PA at the ML level, but he is not Fernando Tatis Jr. so he is not good enough.
Scooter Gennett – 23 when became regular
Whit Merrifield – 27
David Fletcher – 24
Ian Kinsler – 24
Cavan Biggio – 24
Eduardo Escobar – 25
At 21, in 229 PA, Javy Baez hit .169/.227/.324/.551. He spent most of his 22 year old season in MiLB (81 MLB PA). He stuck with the Cubs at 23, but did not have an OPS in excess of .800 until 25.
So, the Dodgers are loaded with good baseball players, but will need to be able to re-sign their stars. Or they will need to sign free agents. Their projected stars need to perennially play at the top 10 for their position (preferably top 5). The players the team has in their system will keep them competitive, but they need the stars to contend.
Phillies sign Archie Bradley.
Hey it’s something.
I just saw video of Don Mattingly playing 3b.
He is left-handed.
Pedro Baez contract calls for:
$500,000 – Signing Bonus
$4,500,000 – Year 1
$5,500,000 – Year 2
$2,000,000 – Buyout
Total $12.5MM.
The Dodgers signed Corey Knebel for 2021 and Tommy Kahnle for 2022, for less money. Both come at high risks, but both have higher ceilings. AF prefers higher ceilings when it comes to relievers, since there really is no such animal as a sure thing when it comes to relievers. And neither one figures to be less clutch (or anywhere close) than Baez in the playoffs, when it matters most.
Dodgers still interested in Hand, but only on a one year deal. He is seeking a multi year deal.
Dodgers sign Enny Romero to a minor league deal. Parts of 5 seasons in the majors. Last pitched for the Royals in 2018. Plus 5 ERA. Looks like a AAA signing to me. Also pitched for the Rays and the Nats and Pirates. Best season 2017 with the Nats. More K’s than innings pitched. Left handed reliever.
Not only is tomorrow arbitration day, but the International signing period begins. Dodgers have a pool of a little over 5.5 million.
Strong opinion: I think people who advocate for signing BOTH JT & DJLM [or Ozuna] are delusional. I’ve seen it elsewhere and it’s an unnecessarily greedy view. We need one more impact RH bat, preferably one eho plays 3b. After that, it’s smaller pieces only (like a bench OF).
Also, I think we are going to miss Hernandez a lot. Yes, McKinstry is a good replacement and we still have Taylor, but are there other utilitymen out there we could snag for cheap? I think one could replace the one-dimensional Beaty.
We miss your insight 2dem. Would love to have you back even in a limited role
I just read an article in the Athletic by Jason Stark kicking around yet another rule change; this time regarding the universal DH. I guess since MLB can’t get off it’s ass and get a decision done on the matter, a gimmicky alternative is the next best thing. The rule has been dubbed the”double-hook” or DH 2.0. The idea is discussed with a manager, Bud Black, and ex DH Adam Dunn, a pitcher Adam Wainwright and an AL exec. The idea is that a lineup starts with a DH. Once the starting pitcher is removed from the game, the teams loses the DH. The team than must use a pinch hitter, the DH plays defense or the pitcher hits. The ideas supposed to promote longer outings by the starting pitchers and add strategy to the game.
I am almost universally in favor of last year’s rule changes, even 3 batter rule. But this proposal (which will never be seriously considered) is the worst idea I’ve ever heard. You can read the arguments, pro and con, so I won’t get into that here.
But instead of tricked up options maybe baseball should address what I consider the most important topic on the table right now. A decision that totally effects signings, trades and rosters. Let’s get a decision on DH 1.0.
I’ll play along Mark,
Would you rather lose the ability to read or lose the ability to speak? The ability to read
Would you rather have a golden voice or a silver tongue? golden voice
Would you rather be covered in fur or covered in scales? fur
Would you rather be in jail for a year or lose a year off your life? lose a year off my life
Would you rather have one real get out of jail free card or a key that opens any door? Get out of jail free card
Would you rather know the history of every object you touched or be able to talk to animals? Talk to animals
Would you rather be married to a 10 with a bad personality or a 6 with an amazing personality? 6 with personality. Looks and bodies fade, but personality will turn a 6 into a 10 overtime
Would you rather have all traffic lights you approach be green or never have to stand in line again? Not stand in line
Would you rather give up all drinks except for water or give up eating anything that was cooked in an oven? give up all drinks
Would you rather go back to age 5 with everything you know now or know now everything your future self will learn? undecided on this one.
Would you rather be able to dodge anything no matter how fast it’s moving or be able to ask any three questions and have them answered accurately? Ask three questions
Would you Rather the Dodgers have 6 Top 100 MLB Prospects or 40 Top Prospects in an Insanely Deep System? Insanely deep system, year after year with one or 2 years of 6 top 100 MLB prospects.
I concur with DodgerLover, the writing on this blog has been exceptional over the past 2 months(it has most always been very good, but it has gotten even better than before). Thank you Mark and Jeff and please keep up the good work! It is much appreciated.
Muncy has made a plea to the FO to bring back Turner. Makes sense. But the way things are unfolding right now, I have no clue which way AF is leaning. My idea would be to sign a starter, someone with some chops, and move Urias to the pen since he has pitched better from the pen than as a starter. Leave Tony G. and May in the rotation. If no Turner signing, then they need to trade for a RH bat.
You gotta look at how many starting pitchers we have. Correct me if I am wrong, but we have 3 definite starters in Buehler, Kershaw, Price. Somebody has to fill the other 2 spots. I’m guessing it is May and Urias. That leaves Gonsolin as a reliever, which is a good thing for the bullpen.
This is my standards only, others will have a different opinion. Looking at stats only I see only 2 guys in the bullpen that have dominant stats (Gonsolin, Gonzalez) and both have not racked up many innings in the big league. So they are not sure things but I like what I see so far. Yes Jansen has dominate career stats but we all know he is declining.
Friedman has added guys to the bullpen already but just my opinion I’m not impressed with who he has added. The bullpen right now is crowded so I don’t know how much if any room is left for addition.
Theo Epstein joining MLB Commissioners Office as consultant for on field matters. It would appear that he will assume many of Chris Young’s previous responsibilities plus a lot more.
Dodgers first choice is to retain Turner. Turner wants 4 years, Dodgers prefer two. Meet in the middle. 2 with a mutual option. DJLM is not coming here on a 5 year deal, nor will he get such a deal from the Yanks who are standing firm so far. Little to no movement on free agents right now. With all the financial uncertainty it is understandable. Molina now also contemplating retirement since he really want’s to go back to the Cardinals, and they are balking at giving him 2 years. Kluber, Cishek, and Swarzak all threw for teams the other day. Cishek is interesting and someone I think AF should look at. Theo Epstein will become a consultant for the commissioners office.
Mark, you never responded to my inquiry from yesterday about whether you could do polls here. Seems like there was some interest although it may be impossible from your end or just too much work. Would appreciate a response. Thanks.
Attaching a link from a column which talks about the question of whether or not to resign JT for 3 or 4 years at his age.
If you aren’t into numbers, this probably won’t appeal to you but if you are it’s an interesting read:
http://enews.newsletters.ocregister.com/q/2E6uC4tae7EIoyZKoFFDy11PxE0EI2ekgvOjRB3xnhGXhP6Q9IZcBodv8
I’m grumpy today, so apologies up front.
But Baseball America is, like every other specialty media org, struggling to turn a profit and keep paying quality writers like Kyle G. Their top prospects lists are their own IP.
The least we can do as a blog when we copy vast amounts of content is to provide a link to where people can support BaseballAmerica through subscription. Or drive/encourage people to subscribe to their podcasts, which can also be monetized.
the most we could do is overtly encourage the great readers here to subscribe and support BA, Fangraphs et al. And not copy the majority of their premium content.
YES, I realize the chat was on the open web. But on Baseball America there’s an article cap, which we subvert, and there’s less friction to readers buying a subscription.
Again, apologies, but I’m grumpy and precious about this stuff.
Less than 24 hrs before tomorrow’s arb deadline.
Will we see any deals between now and then?
Have to think we’re working hard right now.
Maybe AF will have a better financial picture once some 2021 salaries are settled.
He could be telling JT, “We’ll pay you as much as we can afford . . .”
Nice write up Mark. 16 of 30 is pretty good. Like to see how the 19 and 20 classes fare. I think they would only consider Ozuna if they knew the DH was coming back. Otherwise, he is a liability defensively, and judging from what i have seen, his base-running skills are meh.
BTW Mark, your blog has been excellent recently and I see you are challenging other sites for daily comments. Keep it up!
Also, I rarely employ absolutist language but I agree with you that we are not getting Ozuna. Must be idle chatter or a ploy to pressure Turner into signing.
I have no problem using the three young guns in the pen if we continue to pickup quality starters. However, as we’ve seen in the past, sometimes project pieces take a spot on the active roster that’s more deserving for younger, better players. In fact, with all of these veteran signings, some of the three could also be blocked in the bullpen. Again, no a horrible thing for some. In particular, Gonso might be better served spending some time in AAA to start the season to work on whatever it was that caused him to regress in the post-season. May could certainly use some time there as well working on a secondary pitch to yield better strikeout numbers. The same can be said for Brusdar.
On the music side, that album, Beatles for Sale was a Christmas gift from my son this last Christmas. I’ve been wearing it out. I started collecting vinyl again as we have several record shops in my area. I’m up over the 230 albums in my collection.
I love the fact that Gonsolin was not even in the top 30. So depth does matter
That’s an interesting question Mark.
Are we talking every year?
I believe I would rather have 6 in the Top 100. I would think a team with that would be ranked in the top 3 in minor league systems year after year. It would sure be a sign our drafting and development teams are working. It could also depend on how many of those are in the Top 20. If they are consistently 90-100, then maybe not. If they are evenly spread out, then yes.
I think it’s important to note that there are a lot of teams that are working hard and working smart on development. What the Dodgers have that some teams don’t is organizational depth in bank accounts. That of course doesn’t guarantee a championship, but if you’re smart, and our management is, it guarantees you will compete. Many organizations that lack our resources are starting over every few years. We just pick up where we left off.
I think we win the West again but I believe it won’t be the cakewalk it’s been the last few years.
I’m starting to get bullish on Mitch White for this year. He’s a post-hype guy but he’s always had the frame and the stuff. Controlling it and staying healthy is his challenge. Could be a nice swingman/long reliever this year.
If they use May,Gondolin or Urias in the pen they would just have to replace them in the rotation. I guess that’s fine if you have someone better to replace them with.
I have been tracking the starters for the last 3-4 yrs, and they rarely start every five days more than 2-3 times in a row. A sixth and seventh starter are routinely used, sometimes out of the pen or AAA. Plus I expect pitchers will not be asked to start 30 times so utilizing the extra starters makes sense.
Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin and Price, while a really good rotation, are all mostly in a situation where limiting their innings makes sense.