The New Yourk Yankees have all but guaranteed that they will not be over the Luxury Threshold Tax in 2021 and I would fully expect that the Dodgers will follow suit… unless something too good to be true turns up. The Dodgers have deep pockets and even after losing $100 Million + last year, they can probably afford to pay a few million in Luxury Tax… but why?
The Dodgers are the class of MLB and favorites to win the World Series again in 2021… but San Diego has pulled closer. However, to think that the Dodgers will just blow by the Luxury Tas Threshold is both naive and delusional. There is not much room… They can sign Turner for $18 Million and two years, but Hendriks? Ha! Trading for Arenado? No way! Suarez? I doubt it!
Not many teams can afford to spend big this winter but some are trying. Just to be clear, while I have no knowledge of Guggenheim & Company’s finances, I do know that they have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. They have just won a World Series, but after losing more than $100 Million Dollars, many would think it would be reckless to overspend right in the middle of a pandemic.
It’s fun to concoct up all kinds of trade scenarios and while I do believe that Andrew Friedman is “in” an most free agents, I do not believe he will sign a free agent that is going to thrust the Dodger over the Luxury Tax Threshold. Yes, they can afford it, but No that is not their M.O. Remember that the Tampa Bay Rays payroll in 2020 was more than $100 Million less than the Dodgers,
Stacking a team with all the best free agents is not the way Andrew Friedman has done it in the past and it is not the way he is going to do it now! Also, lets’ face it: The fattest payroll does not always win! In fact, having the biggest payroll usually means you won’t win… regardless of 2020.
Justin Turner is doing his due diligence, but when it’s all said and done, I think he will be back in LA, sharing time with Edwin Rios at 3B and trying to win another Championship. The Dodgers could also bring back Alex Wood and/or Pedro Baez, on team-friendly deals. Blake Treinen is also a possibility, but I think someone will dangle more money and more years.
The truth is that the Dodgers are stuck… and that is good. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are motivated to return to their 2019 form after a down 2020. Marty Lamb has a saying “If a player did it once, he can do it again!” Max and Cody have done it before… TWICE! They can do it again. Edwin Rios is working hard in Florida to prove he is no fluke. Mookie Betts would love to win an MVP in the NL and Corey Seager is playing for new contract.
To those of you who say that Friedman should go ahead and extend Seager, remember who his agent is and that it takes two to reach a deal. I would think that Seager’s best deal could be made this winter, rather than waiting until their is a glut of shortstops on the market, which there will be after the 2021 season. Baez, Story, Correa, Lindor, and Seager all will be in that 2021 Free Agent class.
Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Taylor, Joe Kelly, and Corey Knebel all come off the books after 2021. That is $65 Million that they could use to sign one or two of those shortstops and other Free Agents in 2021. Next year, we can dream of whoever we want, but what you see right about now is what you will get.
Andrew Friedman has shown that he will go after a player (or players) at the trade deadline, if necessary. Witness Machado, Darvish, Reddick, Hill, et al. Speaking of Hill, I would love to see him come back on a team-friendly deal, but I hear that he is talking to Boston and that is close to home. Dick Mountain is Mountain Mover and can play for me any day.
If I had to guess the Dodgers Opening Day position players in 2020, it would be :
- C – Will Smith
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Gavin Lux
- SS – Corey Seager
- 3B – Justin Turner
- LF – AJ Pollock
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Edwin Rios (if implemented)
No lineup is perfect, but that is a pretty dang good defensive and offensive unit. There are not many better lineups in baseball… if any. That leaves Barnes, McKinstry, Taylor and probably one of Beaty, Reks, or Raley on the bench.
David Price will be back (write that down) and I would expect a very good year from him. 2021 is the likely the year Walker Buehler fulfills all his promise and I think Clayton might like to retire as a Top Five Starter with a second World Championship Trophy. Julio Urias will likely be the #4, behind Kershaw, Buehler and Price. That leaves May and Gonsolin (and maybe even Josiah Gray) to duke it out for the 5th spot. I think it would interesting to see Gray get that spot with both May and Gonsolin going to the bullpen for a year, before going back to starting. That may or may not happen, but it is possibility.
I think the bullpen will be fine with the multitude of arms they already have and I have been told to “watch our for Garrett Cleavinger” – he is on the verge of just finally figuring it out.” Kenley Jansen wants to prove he is still a top reliever, but this time, all the weight will not be on his shoulders as he will share the closing duties with others.
I said it before and I will say it again: Joe Kelly might be cut if he can’t find the form the Dodgers expected when they signed him. To me, the bullpen options are exciting and I look forward to the competition.
A Lot to be Thankful for…
2020 was a devil of a year. Some of it was magic and some of it was tragic, but I had a good life all the way (this line is at the end video below):
Part of the good life I have had in 2020 is because of the great people at LA DODGER TALK and I am especially thankful for the following writers:
- Jeff Dominique (AC) – He is a CFO, CPA-type and we love to agree and disagree. We know how to push each others’ buttons, but at the end of the day, it is all good! We agree more than we disagree, but when we disagree, we are not disagreeable!
- Harold Uhlman (DC) – Harold has been on this earth longer than everyone here combined! 😉 Yet, he still is standing tall. He says he is retired, but when the minor leagues start back up, he will start salivating like Pavlov’s Dog and be back. You wanna’ bet?
- Michael Norris (Bear) – I love Michael, even when I hate him… which is NEVER! We have some common bonds: (1) We both love Yasmani Grandal; and (2) We won’t back down. OK… maybe it’s just one. You pick!
- Rob Schelling (2demeter2) – Rob towers over me and is a gentle giant of a man. He says he is retired from blogging, but we both know better. He has been a huge part of LADT success. As an attorney, I hope he doesn’t sue me for that!
- Evan Bladh (Sons of Kingman) – Evan is extremely busy in Homeland Security at SF. His wife retired recently and when he does, maybe he will come back and keep writing.
The above writers are amazing. Jeff is the point man and hopefully enjoying his retirement, except when I raise his blood pressure! 😉
Discussion (76)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Above
Go Dodgers! One thing, Max Muncy continues to disapppoint. He may be a strong player but his temperament needs to be contained. Every player makes mistakes, misses a pitch and/or doesn’t get to base, but they don’t throw bats or swear openly. Is he team captain? Hard to believe. Not a good example of a Dodger.
Regarding Price’s remaining contract years Bear, Baseball Reference shows 2021 and 2022 at $32MM per year with the Dodgers responsible for half of that or $16MM per year.
2021 starts out with the loss of another prominent sports figure. Paul Westphal who both played for and coached the Suns passed away. He had brain cancer. RIP Paul.
Bryant is still a possibility, but if they sign him, he has to play 3B, so there is no Justin Turner.
I like the idea of tying Joe Kelly to a Bryant deal and paying more in prospects.
How about Kelly, Uceta, Thomas, and Amaya?
Is there anything in particular that makes New York and Colorado a better place to hit for DJLM ?
I did not believe that DJLM would be the hitter he was/is outside of Coors, but I did not factor in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. Last year, check this out:
At Yankee Stadium, DJLM hit .423 with a .481 OB% and a 1.265 OPS!
Everywhere else, he was a good player, but not “otherworldly!” He hit .306 with a .361 OB% and a .759 OPS.
In 2019, he hit .338 with a .392 OB% and a .977 OPS at Yankee Stadium.
Elsewhere, he hit .318 with a .359 OB% and a .818 OPS.
DJLM is only worth $100 million… or maybe $80 million if he played for the Yankees, although he does hit very well in Toronto, Seattle, and Minnesota. If he were to come to LA, he would not hit as he did in NY… which greatly influenced his averages. He would be a very good player, but not the player you have seen in NY and he knows that.
He will sign with the Yankees!
I’m starting to think DJLM is possible. If he really wants to come to la I think the Dodgers sign him. I don’t think the money will hold it up. AF could figure how to stay under the cap. If he signs probably no turner but he would be a guy who would give u the same type player as turner. Rh hitter patient high performing can handle the big stage. It would not surprise me at all.
We might already have a closer and we just don’t know it YET. Friedman can always wait until the trade deadline if it turns out we don’t have a bone fide closer. I’m not high on the big name free agent relievers like Hendriks, Hand, Yates, Rosenthal, Colome. They all have flaws and they would I assume cost the most among the free agent relievers.
That’s why I’ve suggested some not so big name relievers that actually have equal or better long term stats than those big name guys above. And the ones I’ve suggested besides Doolittle would cost less than the big name guys above.
I may be wrong but I think it would be better to upgrade cheaper even though you might not get a closer and see what happens. Then at the trade deadline if we need a closer then go get one.
Sign Joakim Soria and Pedro Baez, both I assume would cost less than those big name guys in my first paragraph.
You can’t tell me that both Soria and Baez are not upgrades over Floro, Kolarek, Alexander, Cleavinger, Jansen, Kelly, Santana, Sborz, and all the scraps Friedman likes to have around in case one works out.
After signing Soria and Baez, if we still need a closer then trade for one at the trade deadline.
I would say sign free agent Roberto Osuna but he has authority problems.
There are several things worth responding to here.
First, I have read nothing that says that the Dodgers are owned by Guggenheim Partners. Guggenheim Partners is an LLC owned by numerous people. Mark Walter is one of them and is CEO of Guggenheim Partners. They control over $275 BB in assets, but do not own the Dodgers.
The Dodgers’ majority owners are Guggenheim Baseball Management. They are owned by Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Peter Gruber, Stan Kasten, Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly. They owe no duty to Guggenheim Partners.
Second, what the Dodgers spend on payroll is the tip of the iceberg. The Dodgers spend more than any team in baseball on analytics. Unlike teams like the Houston Cheaters, the Dodgers maintain a huge scouting department – according to Baseball America, they spend 4th most in MLB on scouting. Per the same article, they invest heavily in staff development and recruitment, getting the best scouts, coaches, executives and analysts. .
They spend more on minor league nutrition – they have travelling chefs for all but 2 teams and for those teams they cater meals. ““They have unbelievable resources, they’ve done a very good job of player acquisition and then they’ve given their players everything they can think of to help them succeed,” the rival NL executive said. “That’s a tremendous recipe.””
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/theyre-the-model-how-the-dodgers-player-development-machine-rolls-on/
So the Dodgers have money – it’s not Guggenheim money. They spend on payroll but far more to grow their own and to help all of their players, major leaguers and minor leaguers alike, to be successful.
But that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t spend to obtain quality major league players. They have not done that during this offseason. I will devote a separate post to compare what they have gained and lost so far this offseason.
There are some pundits who are floating the idea that the Dodgers are kicking the tires, or at least considering trading for Castillo of the Reds rather than entertain Bauer. Bauer has been talking to the Blue Jays, and the Jays are ready to spend again. This is a really intriguing off season because it is really taking some time for the market to set itself. And there are a lot of players who are heading for foreign leagues.
Great post Mark!!! Thanks to all the other writers who work so hard to make this blog a fantastic read. Happy New Year to all!!
Mark I believe u have stated a realistic view of our current status. In a way it is disappointing when reality hits but here we are. We have a great returning team who I think will be better than the world champs (assuming we have Turner). I think our bullpen will be better and I expect lux and bellinger to have banner years.
I believe AF is waiting on Turner to committ. If it is to LA then he could get 3 years at 12 mil. That would leave some wiggle room for deadline deals. Or not, if turner signs elsewhere then AF goes to plan B. He could try to get DJLM or Suarez or somebody not on the radar. I just don’t think he will stand pat if we don’t get turner. I don’t think that turner can be a regular for 3 years but to keep the aav down and with the dh coming it works.
I think the moves the pads made makes us a tossup on paper. Bullpens might be the difference. Atlanta is very good and could be better than us or the pads. Our winning may give us a slight mental edge. But, if we have a full season depth will probably decide the western division. I believe LA has to get better than last year to repeat.
I think it is really far-fetched that DJLM comes to LA. I don’t think he will leave the East Coast. Yankee Stadium is made for him and he knows that. I could see the Mets signing him but if he is smart, he will go back to the Yankees. His wife and he love NYC and AF is just making sure the Yankees pay through the teeth! It worked with Cole.
Wrong.
In times of crisis, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
It’s the opportunity for the Dodgers to get parts at a lower cost than in “normal times” they wouldn’t, that includes Turner.
The Dodgers with their financial power must take advantage of the situation.
Some of the trade scenarios’ fans come up with are just totally nuts. That is one reason I refrain from making those kinds of predictions. If a scenario seems plausible, well than I try to figure out if AF would even consider making that kind of move. He more than any of us knows who he is in contact with and who is most likely to help the team win again. Guys who will not be back, Treinen, Pederson, Baez, Kike, McGee. Already back, Nelson. Possible, Turner, Wood. I think with only one spot on the roster open, if he want’s to sign more than that, someone is going to have to go. Most likely candidates, Sborz and Santana. I do not see either of those guys cracking the roster. I am not that sold on Raley or Reks either. Those two and Beaty are 3 versions of the same guy. I would have liked to have seen more of McKinstry last season. I think they missed a real opportunity to see what he could do. They could also package Ruiz in a deal. Catching at this point is not a black hole. Spring is coming. All questions shall be answered grasshopper. Be patient.
That line-up seems pretty realistic, absent of wishful thinking and highly unlikely trade fantasies.
Did the Dodgers actually lose over a hundred million dollars or is that more of a reflection of lost revenue due to no fans, not factoring in reduced costs? Some teams were no doubt hard hit, but then they don’t have the Dodgers TV deal.
Many of the trade or signing scenarios right now seem to center around the Dodgers not re-signing Turner or the second base situation, maybe a versatile role player and bullpen help.
Still think Turner re-signs on a two year deal, Mark’s numbers look good. Yes, David Price will probably play. Dave Roberts seemed less certain. But I can’t imagine any player leaving that kind of money on the table.
I agree with NorCal that Gonzalez will be a huge bullpen piece. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Brandon Morrow bounce back or any other one year BP signing. Nature of the beast.
Happy New Year everyone. I hope this one is a lot better than the last. That being said, I think Mark nailed this. I also do not see Friedman doing anything spectacular. Especially with the financial state of the game at this point. No one knows when the fans will be allowed back in the parks. There were 3000 people at the game yesterday that substituted for the real Rose Bowl. There still are no fans at NBA games. So everything is in flux. I fully expect Bellinger and Muncy to rebound. Bellinger so far in his career has been good, meh, good, meh. So this is the time for a good year. I think AF will do his due diligence with the free agents available and when all is said and done, he will have signed players he feels will help the team. And remember, right now the roster stands at 39. Two of those players can be moved to the IL when they report to spring training, Kahnle and Ferguson. All of the reports indicate they are talking to DJLM’s agent. Now at this point I do not see them acceding to his desire for a 5 year deal. For that reason and the fact that it seems like they are waiting on Turner, I doubt he signs with LA> If he did, it would be a huge surprise. He could also surprise us all with a trade. We are all in the dark here. Wondering when and where will anything happen. I look for the free agent market to start moving at a brisker pace the next couple of weeks. Oh yeah Mark, I just love Grandal.
It’s 2021 and the Dodgers are defending World Series Champions. MLB’s Preseason Power Rankings are out and the Dodgers are No. 1. No surprises here. but low and behold our red headed step child down south is in the number two spot. This is going to be a fun year.
Amazingly the Padres, who don’t have our TV deal, or own their own stadium like we do, that haven’t received additional revenue by playing in post season games for almost a decade straight, are spending like drunken sailors on leave and have their payroll sitting at just $30 Million below ours for the upcoming season.
How the hell can they spend like that, but somehow we’re restricted to an imaginary line? Our “MO” is going to prevent us from filling the one big hole we have? What the hell is this MO anyways? Can I see it? Can I touch it?
Let’s examine this MO thing a little further. Is MO referring to the great state of Missouri? The hateful day of Monday? That doesn’t make much sense, why would Missouri, or Monday keep us from going over the CBT? Let’s just assume that MO is modus operandi…
“a particular way or method of doing something, especially one that is characteristic or well-established.”
So, some are saying that our beloved Dodgers, who have been owned by Guggenheim Baseball Management since 2012, have a “well-established” procedure or rule of not surpassing the CBT. Let’s test that…
When they bought the Dodgers in 2012, opening day payroll was $95 M, 12th in the league. Ouch, we were spending right between the White Sox and the Twins. What dark days those were. Since then, they were…
2013 – $216M, 2nd
2014 – $235M, 1st
2015 – $272M, 1st
2016 – $223M, 1st
2017 – $242M, 1st
2018 – $186M, 3rd
2019 – $170M, 7th
2020 – $227M, 2nd
By looking at the payroll for each year that the Dodgers were owned by GBM it actually looks like you can conclude that their MO is to not give a crap about the CBT threshold. This supports my statement that they don’t give a crap about the CBT and just for clarity, I use the $272M million number to make my case. I did not say they would spend to that degree, just that they’ve done it before and will do it gain whenever they feel like it makes sense.
Just like the “No Boat Anchor” MO of the past, the signing Mookie for $30M a year until he’s 39 blew that one out of the water and we don’t hear much talk about that one anymore.
I suggested signing DJLM and Henricks or Rosenthal. Then pick up some leftovers to fill out the bench during ST. Let’s say we’re going to be under the CBT by $20M today. I think I’ve heard that number from our resident CFO AC.
DJLM for 22M puts us over by $2M
Let’s say Henricks or Rosenthal is about $8M. I’m just thinking that’s fair because no one would touch Hand for $10M on a one year deal. Now, we’re over by $10M. A couple of bench pieces? Worst case scenario another $10M total brings us to $20M over the CBT. That’s chump change compared to the payroll history of this ownership group and fits right into their “MO”, or well established way of doing things.
Hold on to what we have.
We just graduated Lux, May, Gonsolin, Graterol & Gonzalez.
Our new top ten is:
1. Gray
2. Ruiz
3. Hoese
4. Busch
5. Miller
6. Beeter
7. Vargas
8. Cartaya
9. Pages
10. Rodriguez
Honorable mention is McKinstry, who is a near lock to make the opening roster.
Add a little, prune a little, trust the process.
Happy 2021
I missed the Rose Bowl game yesterday but when I saw some highlights on the news, it looked like fans were in the stands.
Agree with MT’s post almost completely. Just don’t see AF going past the Luxury Tax and I don’t think he has to. I think AF will work hard from now and through the next off season to get the youngsters signed longterm (Cody, Corey, Walker etc.).
I think JT comes back on a two-year deal with a team controlled third year option, Nelson or Morrow will find their previous from and join the BP, Victor Gonzalez will become a huge piece in the BP, we will be very pleased with Kenebel and Lux will show why he was a minor league player of the year. No real reason for a big splash but we’ll probably continue to see some “below the radar” with some low risk veteran bench pieces to take the place of Hernandez but for the most part we will be the same team that won it all.
Here’s to hoping for a safe 2021 where we can attend games in-person. I would love to attend ST but that’s unrealistic, but hoping for some fans in attendance in June/July.
Good article, makes perfect sense. Just two things though, were you fell into mainstream reasoning. First AF would much rather develop a shortstop ( or any other position) and if he doesn’t have an internal option then trade for one , and second, the Dodgers typically have utilized a hybrid 6 man pitching rotation and will no doubt especially do that this coming season.
In my dream scenario the Dodgers sign Bauer and Hendriks and trade for Suarez. But I can live with your lineup and rotation too. Still very, very talented though the Padres certainly have made up ground and the division would be a dogfight for sure while a playoff series could go either way .
Difference could very well be the pen and if nothing else I think the Dodgers for sure should bring in a proven closer if kJ can not do this job (which sadly is a realistic view given his struggles the last couple years).
Rosenthal , Hendriks or Hand should be in a Dodgers uni IMHO.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy New Year to all!
Yes indeed, many thanks to all the writers that contribute to this website. Dodger Talk and coffee is a good way to start the day.
I’m sure you meant Bellinger in CF.