Somebody made a point as to what the Padres transactions did for the psyche for the other teams. The Padres have now joined the Dodgers, Braves, probably Mets, and maybe the Nationals (with their pitching and Soto/Robles/Turner) to separate from the rest of the NL. Some team from the NL Central will get to the playoffs, because, well one of the teams has to. It is a rule.
Because of the 2020 COVID non-revenue season and the questionable revenues in 2021, too many teams are looking to pare salary. Not take it on. The exceptions, a billionaire with a new toy (Steve Cohen and NYM), and Toronto. When Toronto is good, they get butts in the seats. They have the kids. They need the veteran stars to help them across the finish line. They are in on every FA out there. They will get at least one big name. They have north of $70MM to spend to get to their salary point. They have intimated that their budget is equal to their 2018 CBT or $167MM. They currently sit at $93MM.
We have seen a team that got to the WS, trade their Ace (Snell) and now looking to trade the face of their team (Kiermaier), all because of cash. We saw the Reds trade their closer and are looking to move one of their top two starting pitchers. Because they cannot move Joey Votto. They also cannot move Nick Castellanos or Mike Moustakas who were signed pre-COVID. Without revenues, that is going to be hard for Cincinnati to swallow. Seeing what San Diego did is going drop their expectations even lower. If they thought they could compete for a Wild Card, there would be no discussions of trading Gray, or Castillo, or Suarez.
Cincinnati Reds – Do the Reds see a path to a championship after what the Padres did and what the Dodgers and Braves (and Nats) already have, and what the Mets are undoubtedly going to do? That is five teams that the Reds are no way close to. In the past, they could have (and did) pay for help. Not this year. It is time to look at 2023 and beyond.
Chicago Cubs – How about the Cubs? They may be happy with the return they got for Darvish. I think it will prove to be a good trade for the Cubs, but not for 2021. Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies are the top starting pitching candidates for the Cubs. They are high on Adbert Alzolay, but is he a difference maker in 2021? The same for Alec Mills. And that is about it for SP. They are looking at another year of reduced revenues, and four significant free agents after 2021: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Zach Davies, and another one year later in Willson Contreras. They will not be able to sign all five, and they cannot sign three or four and still pick up a current FA. Theo did not do a very good job of managing the roster for this situation. AF has done a masterful job in that area. So what do the Cubs do? They are all one year rentals (except Contreras). All will get QO next year. The Cubs know they are not in contention, and will not pursue big names. That means they may unload. Do the Dodgers make an insulting offer for KB? For Javy Baez (for 2B, not SS)? If Hoyer says no, AF walks. Would the Dodgers be better with KB or Baez? For me that is an unequivocal, Yes. Of course that would ultimately be dependent on what they had to give up. I am guessing not that much for a $20MM rental. Baez is exciting. BTW, after Darvish, the Cubs are still at $150MM in AAV, and with little chance of contending with their pitching. They have already told everyone that they want to curtail even more payroll. Look for the fire sale to continue.
New York Mets – I think they react in the opposite direction. I think they will want to add to their team to contend with the Braves and then Dodgers/Padres. They have approximately $60MM to reach the CBT. They are probably doing their best to get Springer down off his $30MM AAV demand. Or do they go all out and buy Trevor Bauer and make a trade for Kevin Kiermaier. The problem is they need RH bats. Is there a way to sign Bauer and DJLM? The Mets are players.
Washington Nationals – I doubt that what SD did has any impact on them. They know they have a contender because of their pitching staff and Soto/Trea Turner/Robles. JT has been rumored to be on the Nats wish list, but I think they want him in the same fashion as they got Howie Kendrick…a series of one year deals. They will look at relievers. They could use a catcher, but I am not sure they are in the JTR market. Although they have not shut the door. They have stayed away from those long term deals except for when it comes to pitching. Very odd!! They do have room to spend. If they do counterpunch, it will be to what NYM or ATL does, not SD. If they get to the playoffs, they believe their pitching will match up with anyone.
Atlanta Braves – I think they will respond. I am not sure if they were looking to re-sign or replace Ozuna, or fill the spot internally. They have plenty of space below the CBT, but I do not know what their actual budget is. Atlanta is another possible spot mentioned for JT, but I think they want him on a one year deal like they had with Donaldson and Ozuna. One year deals, and he is back in LA regardless if they get another RH bat. I think Atlanta responds with Ozuna (or Brantley) and a potential lock down reliever. Without the SD moves, I do not think Atlanta considered them as a threat as they do the Dodgers. Now, they may be concerned, and they may need to spend a bit more (overall $$$ commitment) than they planned.
Colorado Rockies – They have absolutely no chance to contend, and what the Padres did was to show them they have fallen way behind another NL West competitor. They have little money, and one of the worst farm systems (if not the worst) in MLB. Their free agent contracts and extensions have absolutely devastated and hamstrung them for years.
- Ian Desmond – 5 years $70MM
- Jake McGee – 3 years $27MM
- Bryan Shaw – 3 years $27MM
- Wade Davis – 3 years $52MM
- Nolan Arenado – 8 years $260MM (thru 2026)
- Charlie Blackmon – 6 years $108MM (thru 2023)
- Daniel Murphy – 2 years $24MM
The three reliever contracts are finally gone, as is Murphy’s. The Desmond contract will be gone after this year. They currently have an AAV salary base of $143MM. Potential salaries lost for next year include:
- Ian Desmond – $14MM
- Trevor Story – $13.75MM (estimated – final year arbitration)
- Jon Gray – $6.25MM (estimated – final year arbitration)
- That will be $110MM plus arbitration increases.
Are they so far under water with their roster makeup and inability for any real improvement through free agency or MiLB, that they have to move Arenado or Story. Realistically, they have no chance at contending for several years. They might be able to parlay Arenado into multiple prospects who might be ready by 2024/2025? With the number of free agent with MLB experience that will be available for little $$$, they could put together a team, that may not contend, but will compete. The Rockies have to drop their ego and not worry about what Arenado could do for the Dodgers, if what the Dodgers give in return is the best for the Rockies. If you are too invested in what other teams do instead of concentrating on your team, you make the mistakes the Rockies have done since 2016. Even with Marquez, Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Freeland, et al they have gone backwards. Why? Think about the Rockies not about the Dodgers or Padres, but be realistic.
Arizona DBacks – What are they doing? The Padres and Dodgers are so far ahead of them, and will be as they are currently configured for several years. The DBacks, for years, have been trying to contend but do not have enough pieces to really match up completely. They overpay for pieces and get rid of them (Greinke). They did get three of the top five prospects from the Astros in return, but who knows how good they will be…yet. Maybe only LAD prospects are allowed to be good. They make horrible trades (Dansby Swanson and others for Shelby Miller). They move the face of their organization (Paul Goldschmidt) and get back prospects. Then they repeat the process. They make a good trade to get Starling Marte, and then they move him. They should stay concentrated on acquiring and keeping players like Eduardo Escobar. They need to extend Ketel Marte. They have one of the best young farm systems in MLB. With what the Padres did, the DBacks need to reconnoiter and develop a plan to contend by 2023. Maybe that means that Madison Bumgarner needs to move on. Get a couple of prospects for a pitching hungry team (say NYY). Their young prospects are starting to blossom. Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho, Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen. Their OF prospect are top notch (Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll). SS Geraldo Perdomo is not that far away. All top 100 prospects, with the three OF the age of 20, and Perdomo an old man at 21. Their next 6 prospects are pitchers (#5 thru #10), including their #1 RHP prospect they got back in the Greinke trade (Corbin Martin #6). Do the DBacks take a detour for a couple of years to build a contender. They have the building blocks. They could replicate what the Padres have done for 2023.
Giants – What the Padres did will have no impact on what Farhan Zaidi is planning. Everything points to them jumping in with both feet after next year. Their big contracts will be gone:
- Buster Posey – $22.2MM
- Johnny Cueto – $21MM
- Kevin Gausman – $19MM
- Brandon Belt – $17.2MM
- Brandon Crawford – $15.2MM
- Anthony DeSclafani – $6MM
- Donovan Solano – $3MM
That is nearly $104MM. If they could magically persuade some team in to taking half of Longoria’s contract for a very low level lottery pick, they would really have available dollars for next year’s free agent class, especially for the SS group. I predict right now that one of the five ends up in SF. They have moved into the top third of the farm organizations, and should be in a position to draft in a decent spot next June/July. Farhan is a lot like AF in that he is not going to let another team dictate what he needs to do. Their plans are set and have been set. If a top free agent goes unsigned close to ST, the Giants may jump in as they have plenty of space this year, and next year they will easily be able to absorb the contract. But they will do it on their terms. For this year, they are happy to re-sign Kevin Gausman with the QO, and Anthony DeSclafani. Farhan likes his special finds like Yastrzemski, Dickerson, Flores, Peralta, Solano…He has enough to compete, but not to contend this year. There will probably be too many roster changes to contend next year, but 2023-2025? Only Colorado figures to be out of contention for the foreseeable future. By 2023, the NL West will be a veritable juggernaut.
Another legit question…what does it do for the rush to sign any of the individual FA? We will leave that for another blog post in the near future. Just as an aside, these topics are just so much fun to speculate on. I don’t figure the Dodgers are going make any significant moves, so the speculative posts are what we have. If anyone has any suggestions, I know we would be more than happy to consider. Bear is working on a Dino Ebel post (per DBM request), and I am working on LAD contract maneuverability as they consider their young soon to be FA (per Cassidy request – I think).
Discussion (107)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Well, it has been a long day. Got some errands done, and finished a story and sent if off to Jeff. Made some CD’s for some friends, and downloaded some music onto my computer. I bought a double disc CD yesterday of Jimmy Buffett called Meet Me in Margaritaville. Occasionally I forget songs and who did them. This particular album had one of my favorite all time tunes on it, and I did not realize it was performed by Buffett. The song is Come Monday. Great tune. Album also includes the classic, Why Don’t We Get Drunk. you can add the last line.
Ok this might further tighten norcal’s panties but I got a question for Bear or anyone else who might know – I read that the vaccines have to be stored at -60 or colder. I also read that shipped ice cream and frozen steaks are moved at -80. Is this true? How are those items shipped? By truck? By plane? And how cold can cross country trucks get? I’m curious how they intend to move these vaccines to not more than an hour’s drive from 300 million people.
Yeah, I’m totally clueless why people are so passionate about the 2nd Amendment’s current interpretation in this day and age, but they are.
There was a post on twitter asking you to name your walk up song. One catch, it had to come from the year you were born. My two best choices were I’m Looking Over a Four Leaf Clover, and Nature Boy by Nat King Cole. pretty tame stuff compared to the walk up songs these guys use.
In his short career, Edwin Rios has the following:
.260 BA
.338 OB%
.972 OPS
29% strikeout percentage
9.3% BB%
He also hits a HR one out of ten AB’s.
Gavin Lux has one less AB than Rios, but most of you guys want Lux.
In his short MLB Career, here are his stats:
.210 BA
.278 OB%
.655 OPS
Same Walk Percentage
31% strikeout percentage
He hits a HR every 28 AB’s
And Rios is horrible and Lux is the second coming?
You make excuses for Lux and you make up stuff on Rios.
Get back to reality: Lux may yet be good. Rios already is!
Yes, they are small samplings, but if you had to pick one on his performance. it has to be Rios!
Well the Rams made it, barely, the Cowboys lost, and so did the Steelers. And one more day without any Dodger news. Harrumph. and bah humbug. Lakers getting spirited resistance from the Grizz. I am seriously thinking about binge watching all of the Jaws movies since yesterday I picked up 2,3 and 4. I already had the original. Then again, maybe it is time for some more Jeff Dunham. I could actually break out some old Martin and Lewis films too. I have a disc with 5 of thier movies on it.
Cardinals 7, Rams 5 I wonder what inning they are in. Just watched a video of Vin doing a game on Jackie Robinson day in Sf and explaining a story about the death threats in Cincy and all the tension on the field and in the club house. And while they were discussing how to handle it all, a reserve outfielder by the name of Gene Hermanski shouted, I’ve got it..they all looked at him, and he said we can all wear number 42, that way they can’t tell us apart. Well like Vin tells it, that relived all the pressure in the room and they went out and played, and nothing happened. He finished the story by saying isn’t it fitting that on his day, all the players follow Hermanski’s idea and wear #42. Rams intercept a pass and run it back for a TD, 12-7 now. Downloading some of my music, and just heard a little Buffalo Springfield, For What It’s Worth. Great tune..
Just posted on MLBTR. There is expected to be no delay of spring training or the start of the season. Kike still a player of interest to the Red Sox. Front man of Gerry and the Pacemakers, Gerry Marsden passes away at the age of 78. Pretty decent band, RIP
It is very spirited in here today. My bad crossing the gun line, I apologize. Never been to jail, never been arrested so I have no clue how the system works. I do know that the DOT in most states are butt heads. At least from a truckers point of view. Worst, California, Missouri, and Tennessee. Close, Arizona, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Easiest, Texas, Nebraska and Utah. Lots of long stretches of empty highway, so crank er on up.
I have said that they might go slightly over it, but it won’t be by much. I am sure of it.
Well it will be interesting when all is said and done what AF’s true definition of being a pig is! Hard to be a pig and not spend some money. Rios could also hit .200 with 25 homers and strikeout 180 times. He’s a huge unknown at this point. This is a winning window for Dodgers. Go for it AF!
In response to Cassady “A closer and a big right handed bat. Being a pig for me would be Turner, DJLM and Hendricks. That makes us a big favorite!
The Dodgers are already big favorites and if Muncy and Bellinger rebound, which I believe they will, the Dodgers may run away with it again. Yu Darvish has shown he is mentally fragile – will he hold up in the spotlight? He shined on a poor team last year. When the spotlight has been on him in the past, he has wilted. Snell is a good pickup, but beyond that, no one is proven.
SD looked good in a short-season. Let’s see what they have over 162 games.
The Dodgers are simply not going to go over the LuxTax and I don’t mean Gavin. DJLM is not coming. If Hendriks takes 4 years and $32 million, then he’s a Dodger. JT is welcome back but only at AF’s price. If Lux is all that, then he needs to play. CT3 was statistically in 2020, one of the Top 45 players in baseball. You can’t have All-Stars at every position.
If Rios plays 3B every day, he might hit .240 with 40 HR. The Padres have some very good players but they can’t match the Dodgers’ depth. That said, AF is working on stuff… maybe some very big stuff, but it will have to fit in the LuxTax Box or it’s a no go.
Norcaldodgerfan,
I almost deleted your response to Badger. In most cases, not all, it is hard to get into prison. In other cases, it is sometimes too easy. What is hard is to get out. Once you are in the system, it seems impossible at times to get out. Most cops are good. Most people are good. Some people are ill-informed and overzealous and so are some cops. Where you are out of line is assuming that Badger’s son is his real son. It is his stepson and while I am sure he loves him like his own son… who happens to be very accomplished, he did not raise him. Maybe I said too much, but it was not right to accuse him like that.
The owners have got to be thinking about how much season will we have. Until they know that answer it might be pretty difficult to jump into deep water. If u r going to committ and perhaps add millions to payroll I’m sure they need some assurances. Mb causing slow market.
I will be so glad when actual baseball is actually happening. All the rumors get tiresome. I know AF is figuring out which direction to go in. I just wish he was quicker about it. I love reading Twitter. Some of that stuff is absolutely comedic. You would think from some of the posts on there that the Padres are now equal to the 27 Yankees. Someone pointed out that the Padres have won 14 post season games in 52 years. The Dodgers won 13 in less than a month last year.
A few observations:
I am so thankful that the Dodgers won the World Series. I think we missed a window where we could have had multiple championships. Of course 2017 we should have won and that momentum could have carried over. But, I think the window is closing as the pads,Braves,nationals, and Mets are close.
For those who are not muncy fans. Where in the world would we be without him? He burst onto the scene very unexpectedly and gave us a huge lift. He has played multiple positions(some better than others) but the manager made that decision. He has been a team player focused on winning first. He has performed really well until the shortened season but was huge in the playoffs. I hope AF can find another Muncy!
If the Dodgers wanted to sign turner back and another free agent I believe AF could do that and stay below the cbt He could look at shedding some salary on the current roster. Or, maybe this year won’t matter as much as u don’t know what the line will be in the future.
The Mets, bluejays,, nationals are probably going to sign a free agent and mb multiple. I think the Mets sign Springer, bluejays-Bauer,turner, nationals- Realmuto, Yankees-DJLM for openers
Maybe when AF said Dodgers would be pigs this off season he would just be picking up scraps. So far he has lived up to his promise!
Are the Dodgers better with Turner coming back or DJLM? The latter is 3 -4 years younger and can play multiple infield positions. As Mark showed the other day, he hit .306 on the road. We might get Turner back for 10M a year, DJLM would around 20M. I’d hate to lose Turner but if DJLM can be had for 4 years/80 I’d sign him.
Jeff’s Baez suggestion is quite intriguing.
Jeff brings up an ideal target for 2nd base: Javier Baez! After trading Darvish, I’d bet Cubs would consider trading Baez now too. All they would get after 2021 is a draft pick. He’d be on par with Kike defensively at 2nd and have way more upside with the bat. Very unlikely, but a fan can dream.
Fangraphs/MLB.com has Padres and Dodgers basically in a dead heat for collective team WAR. This isn’t the be all, end all of course since they have to play the games. But I think Friedman will make a move or two that will bump LA up a bit.
Bauer will be expensive, especially considering he’s been inconsistent. Maybe Sugano from Japan could slot in the rotation. This would put 2/3 of Urias, May, Gonsolin in bullpen which could help that outfit. I’d lean towards Urias in rotation. Sign Hand for another pen southpaw. Unlikely, again, but these moves would reinforce pitching staff.
Turner coming would be nice. 3 years may be a bit long, but if it drops the AAV enough, it shouldn’t hamstring the team. DJLM would be a good fit. He could swap between 2nd and 3rd depending on matchups.
I’d think owners should be chomping at the bit the get people vaccinated. Herd immunity will be the only way to get butts in seats in 2021. Who doesn’t want that to happen?
I did not mean that kind of Bear.
😉
He might shoot back!
Good morning all. Hope you slept well. LeMahieu rumors not stopping, but I will believe it when I see it. I look for the FA market to open up some starting in the next 10 days or so. And I expect AF will keep his mouth shut and then do something out of the blue. Right now, no one knows when spring training is going to start, but all have been told to prepare as though it will open up on time. I really feel for those who are in area’s where the virus has reared it’s ugly head yet again. We are not as hard hit here as in other area’s. This town itself has had maybe 10 cases. No deaths. I wear the mask when I go to a public place and in the common area’s of my building, but when I am in my truck, or up at the lake or mountains, I enjoy the clean fresh air and the wide open spaces that abound where I live. As for putting my gun away, with all the nut jobs running around this country, I do what I have to do to protect myself. I would not use it unless I felt a need. But I would rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it. Just my own personal choice, and since this is America, and we are supposed to have freedom of choice, that is mine.
What is thee total amount(ballpark figure) we would save by NOT resigning our FA, $30-40M? JT is the only one I would sign.
Blue, you were correct. Price is signed through 2022. My bad, Eileen, Muncy is not a team captain. There are no team captains on the Dodgers. The closest thing they had was Turner. As for him disappointing, he had two decent years, and then in this abomination of a season he struggled. but he rebounded and was one of their better hitters in the World Series. His behavior is not a question. He gets mad at himself when he does not do something good and shows his frustration, he is no different from any other player in the game. I have not seen Max do anything that would be considered bad behavior. I have seen him toss his helmet or his bat after striking out, but many players do that. Both he and Bellinger had bad regular seasons. So did Pederson, but Pederson was solid in the playoffs. I have no doubt Muncy, who only has a little over 3 full years of service in the majors, will learn from his bad year and bounce back.
Not sure that I would included the Mets or Nats in that first tier in the NL.
Dodgers, Padres, and Braves rule the division for the next few years I think and not necessarily in that order.
I said it in another post but the Pads gave LA all they could handle in the playoffs last year without two of their best pitchers. This year they add Snell and a rejuvenated, possibly, Darvish. They are a loaded team. Clevenger back in 2022 and the other guys are not simply one year rentals.
I don’t know that LA needs to “respond” but a starter, a RH power bat, a competent closer, and a clear winner at 3b would be nice.
On paper today, Id give SD the edge in a series.