Some people think you should expect nothing and that way you will never be disappointed. Others simply wish for the best, but I happen to take a more pragmatic view and consider what could be reasonably expected given circumstances, background, talent and other considerations.
Some fans pick relievers by simply going to last years statistics. It’s easy to look at Liam Hendriks and say, “That the guy the Dodgers should sign.” Right about now, Hendriks is seeking a 3 or 4 year deal in the vicinity of $35 to 45 million. Of course there is no way Andrew Friedman is going to give him that. This is a guy who will be 32 next season and has a career 4.10 ERA, however the past two seasons have been outstanding as he was put up ERA’s of 1.80 or below. Will he keep it up? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance!
Blake Treinen also had two outstanding years on 2017 and 2018, where, if anything, he was better than Hendriks. The next season, he put up a 4.91 ERA and then the Dodgers took a $10 Million dollar chance on his in 2020, His ERA was a pedestrian 3.86 – not bad, but not worth $10 million. Blake had his moments, but he last two seasons dictate a contract worth about half that. The Dodgers would like him back, but maybe on a $10 million dollar contract for Two Years!
This brings me back to Corey Knebel who has a career 3.31 ERA, but really has only had one good season. That was in 2017, when he had a 1.78 ERA in 76 IP. In those 76 innings he allowed 48 hits and walked 40, but had an obscene 126 strikeouts! In 2018, he put up a 3.86 ERA. He was likely pitching injured in 2018 and on March 29, 2019, he elected to have season-ending Tommy John Surgery. Of course, he missed the entire season. Let’s pause right here and look at his 2017 highlights:
He came back in 2020 and pitched 13 innings with a 6.08 ERA. Here’s an excerpt from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
“After the Milwaukee Brewers’ former bullpen closer missed all of 2019 while recovering from that elbow procedure, the plan was for him to begin this year in the minor leagues, get his arm game-ready and rejoin the Brewers about two months into the season.
Then COVID-19 happened.
Not only was the game shut down for 3½ months and the 2020 season eventually shortened to 60 games beginning in late July, there were no minor leagues in which to do a lengthy rehab assignment. Accordingly, Knebel got in as much action as possible during the three-week summer camp and opened the season on the Brewers’ roster.
Almost predictably, things did not go well. In nine outings, Knebel was tagged for 11 hits, including four home runs, and seven runs over 6⅔ innings, with four walks and seven strikeouts. His mechanics got so out of whack he suffered a hamstring strain that landed him on the 10-day injured list.“
2020 was difficult for Corey in the start, stop, start again routine because of COVID-19. It was his recovery year and usually a pitcher will be better his second year back from Tommy John Surgery. Here’s one thing to keep in mind: In his MLB Career, Corey Knebel is a perfect 57-0 in save opportunities. He has been a closer since high school and understands the 9th inning.
Let’s go back and read his Baseball America 2014 Scouting Report, when he was still in the Detroit Tigers Farm System:
Ranked #48 prospect in 2013 draft
Like Huston Street before him, Knebel went from an unheralded Texas high schooler to an instant star with the Longhorns. He ranked second in NCAA Division I with 19 saves as a freshman in 2011 and has been one of college baseball’s top closers for three years. Compared to Street, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound Knebel is more physical and has more power to his pitches. His fastball ranges from 91-98 mph, and when he stays on top of it, he has a hard curveball with depth that can reach the low 80s. He has deception in his delivery that makes it tough to pick up his pitches but doesn’t prevent him from throwing strikes. Knebel has the frame and enough feel for a changeup for a pro team to consider using him in the rotation, a role he filled for three starts at the end of 2012. With his two power pitches and his competitive makeup, but he has big league closer upside and could reach that ceiling quickly. Knebel has been suspended twice this spring in the midst of a disappointing season for Texas, once for a confrontation with a coach and once for reportedly substituting his urine for a teammate’s drug test. Neither incident is expected to affect his draft status.
Rumor has it that he was hitting 94-95 in a disjointed COVID-19 Season. He does have a somewhat funky delivery that is easy to get out of whack, but the Dodgers are good with that kind of thing. Corey just turned 29 a few days ago and I think it is reasonable to believe that he can come close to getting back to his All-Star status if he is really healthy.
He had a hamstring injury last season and during the rehab process he developed “bad habits” with his delivery. Specifically, Knebel realized he was throwing across his body too much, an issue that was exacerbated by the hamstring issue. With a fresh start on a new team in 2021, he could be a integral piece of that bullpen.
The Dodgers have indicated they will use bullpen pitchers differently in 2021 and it would be logical to expect that several pitchers could close out games, including Jansen, Knebel, Gonsolin, or May. The Dodgers could use Baez if he isn’t asking for the moon and would it be impossible for Joe Kelly to have “one-good season” as a Dodger? That said, Andrew Friedman is still looking for more bullpen arms… stay tuned and Patience Grasshoppers!
Discussion (43)
Disagree, not disagreeable
David Dahl would be a great addition to play LF and platoon with Pollock. Keep them both fresh. If they sign another reliever, I would want Hendricks so we had a proven closer to back up Jansen if he has another flame out year.
Well Morrow and Treinen worked out pretty well. I bet Knebel at 5 mil will be a huge win for us next year! And I don’t think AF is done yet. Relievers are the most unpredictable group of players so throwing big money their way is bad business. Doesn’t everyone one here wish Kelly’s deal was two years and not three! I wouldn’t give Hendricks three years
“Some fans pick relievers by simply going to last years statistics.”
Not me. I want a longer track record.
“Past performance is no guarantee of future performance!”
But if a guy has a long enough track record of producing then you have a good idea that he will continue to produce. Unless he is in his declining years like Kenley Jansen.
As for Knebel, In his career he’s above average against left handed batters and below average (I’d say bad) against right handed batters. The 3 batter minimum rule makes him someone I wouldn’t have signed.
This Knebel signing is another piece of evidence that Friedman values the bullpen the least when building a team. Unless Friedman knows something about Knebel that EVERYONE else doesn’t.
It will be interesting to see what the Dodgers think of Lux this off season. He was untouchable last year. He certainly isn’t this year on this site. We shall see
I was listening to MLB.Radio today and they think Chapman could be had in the right deal.
Would you trade Busch, Lux, White, and Peters for Chapman?
Lineup:
1. Betts RF
2. Smith C (Best OB%)
3. Seager SS
4. Muncy 2B
5. Chapman 3B
6. Bellinger CF
7. Dahl/Pollock LF
8. Rios 1B
Once the Dodgers are able to move Caleb Ferguson to the 60 Day Insued List,they will have four open roster spots on the 40 man roster.
I like that idea Bums.
He’s an underrated Pitcher.
San Diego took a flyer on Richards and didn’t get what they hoped. He should now be fully recovered from TJ surgery. Maybe he could be really good again in 2021. Depending on cost, the Dodgers could sign him for a spot in the rotation or as depth if they wanted to trade one of Price, Gonsolin, White, Gray, even May for the righty bat they still want/need.
Wood’s fastball plays up out of the pen not as a starter. At 93 he’s a valuable piece out of the pen. And I like Dahl. Lots of upside if healthy. He seems like a perfect AF pickup. Buy low. I don’t see May in the pen. I think a six man rotation as a real possibility for next year to try and keep everyone healthy for playoffs. Key off season improvements are for May and Graterol to improve their sliders. Too many spinners last year. With that pitch it takes both those guys to a new level. We still need another back of the bullpen piece and to resign Turner. It will be interesting to see what offers Kike, Baez and Joc get and if we would match something if only one year deals
Dahl yes Baez no. Baez could be useful but folds in the playoffs. He beat LA in arbitration last year to get more money. He is a homer waiting to happen with the game on the line just like jimi. In the regular season he could help but he wants more money than LA wants to spend. Him and Garcia can’t help but give up the homer when it hurts the most. Roberts keeps putting him in that position. The Dodgers offense just overcome Roberts decision otherwise we would be saying why. So, no on Baez.
Corey Knebel seems to be a good start to restacking the bullpen. I’m indifferent about bring Baez back and I think that Jansen is capable of having another great year as I think his issues are part mental and part mechanical. If he can straighten out the mechanics, I think the mental part will fall into place.
The interesting part for me is that there’s an overwhelming number of quality relievers on the open market with 3 open spots on the 40 man roster. Is AF gonna fill those three spots on 2 RH Bats and 1 reliever, or the other way around?
The 40 man roster is already as deep as I can remember. There’s just a couple of spots where you can realistic expect to improve, or optimize.
I like Beaty’s bat, especially off the bench and in the clutch, but I hate his glove no matter where you put him. I’m wondering if they’re going to give Rios and Beaty some time in Left Field in Spring Training. Recks or Raley sure look like they’re going to replace Joc’s spot and McKinstry taking over for Kike. These are spots where money can be reallocated to the pen or at 3B.
I would like to see this roster next year (and I think it is logical):
C – Smith, Barnes
1B – Muncy
2B – Lux, Kike
SS – Seager (Christopher Russo named him the best SS in MLB in 2020)
3B – Turner, Rios
LF – Pollock, Dahl (Dahl hits RHP very well)
CF – Bellinger
RF – Betts
Bench: McKinstry & Taylor
Pitchers:
1. Kershaw
2. Buehler
3. Price
4. Urias
5. Gonsolin
Pen:
May
Knebel
Kelly
Baez
Gonzalez
Jansen
Kolerek
Wood
I like Dahl over Pederson and at 26, he could get much better – He has been injury-prone, but so has Pollock… so split time with them.
Kike, Baez, Wood and Turner all return.
Good article, Mark. Thank you. I liked Blame Treinen’s contributions to the team last year but if we do not resign him, sounds like Corey Knebel would be an nice addition to the roster. He seems to have a good mind-set and attitude. Welcome Corey.
Great piece.
There seems to be a thought that AF is merely trying to reassemble the same roster that just won it all.
If so, Knebel definitely takes Treinen’s spot.
Who’s next?
Turner–Turner
Joc–FA OF & More Rios ABs
Keekay–McKinstry
Baez–FA RP
Wood–Price 🙂
Nelson–A stale bag of seeds
The incredibly great Sam Miller has been let go by ESPN.
Damn this pandemic.
Daniel. My son played American Legion baseball. They did exactly what you suggested 30 years ago. None of the starting pitchers would pitch 9 innings. Seven innings is the most a starter would go. The day that is now a bullpen session, you were expected to throw 2 innings in relief. My son had shoulder surgery and that was the end of his baseball career. He had a college scholarship, but never threw one inning in college.
Great article yesterday, Bear! I missed the commentary.
One thing that stands out with this list is the comparative lack of truly HOF offensive players, particularly in the outfield, with Duke Snider being the notable exception. Another commenter noted that the Dodgers have always been a pitching first team. I think that’s true.
C – Piazza, although he may not have been the best defensive catcher or game caller
1rst – If Dolph Camilli played his entire career as a Dodger he would be my choice without question. He had the statistical edge over both Gil and Garv and such a great run in his tenure with the Dodgers.
2nd – Jackie Robinson was a defensive monster as well as exceptional offensive player, but even at the end of his career with the Cubs in 1986, Davey Lopes was still stealing bases, creating runs and playing solid defense. Lopes is the somewhat underappreciated piece of that vaunted infield.
SS – Pee Wee was the better player than Maury. I give him the edge defensively, although both were very good. 104 stolen bases notwithstanding, he was barely above average in terms of run creation.
….Knebel is the quintessential AF move, the same type of move that had garnered so much criticism here over the years about plucking the “old and infirm” off the slag heap. One thing the Dodgers organization does very well is looking at the underlying fundamentals of a pitcher and seeing potential where others might not, and developing it. The Dodgers player development system not only works for prospects but also established players.
Knebel has one of the best curveballs in the game, and is sort of the left handed version of Kelly with slightly less FB velo and more command. AF said he wanted different looks out of the pen, and for a time he had constructed a pen that was dominated by guys who threw hard and up, with lots of four seam pitchers.
Baseball is a game of adaptation. If launch angle becomes the new vogue, and it’s how JT transformed himself, the game will adapt with more four seam pitch sequences high in the zone. For a while, high four seamers were a thing – they still are – but AF likes versatility and different looks.
If the team signed this guy for 5 mil, I’d almost like them to take a flyer on Alex Wood for 2 mil. I really was impressed with him in the playoffs, and if he can keep the velo up at 93 in short stints, he could be that multiple inning leftie that Urias was. I just don’t think Wood can ever be a starter.
I agree, chances are better than 50-50 he has a good yr. At least good enough to be helpful.
I have a bullpen idea I would like to get feedback on. Since starters throw in between starts anyway, why not have them throw in a game instead of the bullpen? Imagine Buehler coming in late in the game to throw an inning! I realize not every starter would be comfortable with it, and some need to work on stuff in their side sessions, but it seems when it would work it would extend the relief corps in a creative way. Comments?