What If?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/index.html

It’s coming and safer and more effective than before believed. Can it be rolled out by March or April and save the season? The Army and National Guard will determine that.

I know that in in Indiana, The National Guard are already deployed and working in Nursing Homes and Hospitals, training to move the vaccine.

This is the best news of the year.

MLBTR has a list of non tender candidates. The only Dodger they have on the list is Scott Alexander. But there are a lot of interesting names on the list.

Not breaking news but just broke to me today that Jerry Jeff Walker passed. He was a giant in my life. Well, his music was that is.

I really hope to see Lindor wearing DODGER BLUE. He has DODGERS DNA, and we might see a dynasty in the making.

I remembered the name of the pitcher the Yanks signed who flopped so bad in NY. It was Carl Pavano. Being a lefty, my right is also my non throwing shoulder. Hope Belli feels at full strength soon. It is of note that when Belli hit his homer the next night their celebration was tapping toes.

Sign Seager.

Then Buehler.

That same right shoulder of Belli’s was one of the stated reasons the braintrust moved him to right field a year ago. They didn’t want him diving at first base when that shoulder popped out. I didn’t quite get that one as you dive in the outfield as well. Maybe more. But it was a good story and paved the way for the ill fated experiment of Joc at first. I love Belli in Center now and he’s great. But he is so slick at first and makes plays at 1st that others can’t, especially Muncy. He does the best he can but he ain’t Belli over there.

Belli has had problems with that shoulder even before Kike destroyed it so hopefully it wasn’t all his fault.

DBM, it was his right shoulder (throwing shoulder) but hopefully he’ll come back 100%.

Wow. Hope he recovers completely. Shoulders can be tricky. Was it his throwing shoulder or catching shoulder? Poor Cody, a painful way to celebrate, but I understood it in the excitement of the accomplishment.

Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery after he dislocated his shoulder in celebration with a HR. He will be out approximately 10 weeks but should be ready by ST.

Dodger site listed the 5 best Dodgers not in the hall. Well, 3 of them played most of their careers elsewhere. Beltre, who is a lock to go in as a Ranger, Sheffield, who has yet to garner more than 30% of the votes, and Ramirez, who as it was noted earlier shot himself in the foot with PED use. If he was ever elected, he would have gone in as a Red Sox. Sheffield was also linked to PED’s so not sure if it was his abrasive personality or that PED link that has kept him out of the hall. The other two? Hodges and Garvey. Well, I have made my position on Hodges known many times. Gil was simply the best of his era at his position. He also lost 2 years to WWII where he was a Marine and he was also on Okinawa. He hit only 9 less homers than Perez in 2700 less at bats! His total of 370 HR’s from 43-63 trailed only Mantle, Williams, Mathews, Musial and Snider. And all are in the Hall. As for Garvey, I think Garv was a very good player. His consecutive game streak in the NL will most likely never be broken. Players today get days off regularly whether they want them or not. But, his numbers are just not Hall worthy. Someone mentioned Baine’s And I would agree. There are at least a handful of guys in the hall who just do not have what one would consider HOF chops. I have seen people stump for Fernando. And I would disagree. He also was merely good. What he was more than anything was a cultural phenomenon. And when he eventually retires from the booth, I think that is when his number will be retired. The Yankees have retired more numbers than any other team, 22. They also have retired more numbers for players not in the hall than any other team 1 Martin, 9 Maris, 15 Munson, 20 Posada, 23 Mattingly, 32 Howard, 46 Pettite, 49 Guidry, 51 Williams. None of those guys close to getting in although Martin could make it as a manager some day. Highest vote pct Munson ever got was 9.5.

OK, so none of you were willing to let me trade May for the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. I understand that and in retrospect it may not have been my most clever idea, although I haven’t discarded it completely.

That said, will any of you let me nominate Theo Epstein for Baseball Commissioner? I think he’d be great if we could convince him to take the job.

Like DBM, I’ve not commented much lately, but do read this blog daily (ok, more than daily).

I’m not interested in playing fantasy GM; hence I have not tossed out random trade ideas. I’ll let the Exec of the Year do his thing (much like I do with Rob Pelinka of the Lakers). They seem to know how to build a title contender (especially AF, year after year).

But I do wish I’d take a few hits, or pop an edible, before I read some of these trade ideas and/or comments. I’d be giggling that much more! I beg that you all continue with the proposed trades!!

P.s. DBM, did you request to have your cutout shipped to you? I just did today. (and use this code for free shipping:

CUTOUT20)

Bellinger was a Yankee fan simply because his dad was a Yankee. I doubt that is where his heart is now. No one his dad played with is even left in the organization. It would make more sense that he would want to go play for Jeter who probably was his favorite Yankee next to his dad. But the deal does make some sense since they are both young hitters. I do not think Torres has the defensive chops to be a very good 3rd baseman, but that is just my opinion. Both Seager and Belli being Boras clients is more troublesome than who they might have been a fan of. By that logic it would make sense for the Dodgers to go after Arenado whole hog because he was a Dodger fan as a kid…3rd base problem solved. And you get a power bat. If you are going to suggest trades you need to quit thinking like a fan, and look at things from AF’s point of view. And he is just not an impulsive person. As for what William said, yes, the Dodgers have holes. And yes, Muncy and Belli were not the players they were in 2019. But, basing anything on what happened in a season as screwed up as this one was, well, you just cannot do it. With 102 more games played, you can never tell what kind of a season they could have finished with. Pollock was on pace to hit 48 homers. He has never approached that number in his career. But had they played 162, he would have easily eclipsed his career high of 21. Mookie and Seager would have topped 30, Belli and Max over 20 Only Joc looked like he would have a serious drop off from his 36. And even the 1927 Yankees had holes. And they are considered one of the greatest teams ever assembled. You talk about the Yankees of the late 90’s, They were very good, but the Yankees of the late 40’s and early 50’s won 5 World Series in a row. After Ruth left they won 4 in a row with Gehrig leading the way. They never won 4 in a row with Babe. The 27 Yanks lost 44 times. How did they manage that? They played .714 baseball. And how about the Mariners team that won 116 games and didn’t get to the series? Every player has a bad year somewhere along the line, sometimes more than that and it happens to star players all the time, Bellinger has been great every other year, and not so good the following year. So saying he won’t rebound is way premature Especially when you have a player that young who knows he was not his best. Even Bum;s favorite, Torres was mediocre this season. Muncy over a 162 game season averages .236 with 33 homers and 83 RBI’s. Bellinger .273 39 102 Torres .274 34 96. The one thing all 3 of them have in common? High K rates. All 3 average over 140 strikeouts a season. Seager averages 130. I think and believe that Bellinger and Muncy both know they had bad years. I also think that both have a work ethic that is going to allow them to work hard at getting back to who they really are. Bellinger may not be a .300 hitter. But if he hits .275 with 40 dingers no one is going to bitch about it much. Muncy hits .250 with 30 plus dingers and the Dodgers will be pretty happy about it. They never expected when they signed him that Turner would hit 27 twice. So, I doubt seriously that AF makes a move for any major position player talent in trade. He will peruse the free agent market and fill the holes that way with the pen the obvious target for a serious upgrade. If something falls into his lap that he sees as reasonable, he might walk through that door. The Dodgers and the Braves were the only teams to hit 100 homers or more this season. Yes, they had some trouble manufacturing runs. And I expect they will be addressing that little fault this spring. First thing is they have to decide who to protect from the rule 5 draft.

Just read where a pundit opined that Seager, Buehler, and Bellinger should be extended in that order of priority. I agree.

Bellinger grew up a Yankee fan and is a Boras client. He grew up in Arizona so he is a western guy but who knows where his heart is.

Yankee Stadium favors lefty hitters and they need a center fielder and more lefty bats.

Sorry Bear, I would trade Bellinger for Gleyber Torres and ask Betts to play a year in CF. Torres is 23 and is a power righty bat who excels in the post season. He has played second and short and could play second for the Dodgers or either of the infield corners. Yankees would then have to sign DJ LeMahieu and Didi Gregorius.

Seager is another Boras client and I worry about him being a Dodger after 2021. Therefore I would hope the Dodgers do everything they can to extend him now so they know what they have after 2021.

May has already been beaned with a comebacker and at 6′ 8″ he is a vulnerable to getting beaned again.

When the Yankees say they would trade Voit for a pitcher I think they are talking about someone like Snell and not May.

I would trade May and Ruiz for Snell or Zac Gallen.

CF Betts

SS Seager

3B Torres

1B Muncy

C Smith/Barnes

RF Pederson

LF Pollock

2B Lux

DH Turner

Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Snell, Gonsolin

I don’t believe Lindor is happening but I’ll play along.

1B-Turner

2B-Muncy

SS-Lindor

3B-Seager

I’m not dealing May.

Former Cardinals reliever Lindy McDaniel passed away today. Nats signed Yasmany Tomas. Easily the worst free agent signing in D=Backs history. 6 former Dodgers on the Hall of Fame ballot, Sheffield, Ramirez, Kent, Andruw Jones, Dan Haren and Shane Victorino. Of that bunch, Sheffield probably has the strongest case. Ramirez ruined his shot with his PED use. Kent although the all time leader in HR’s by a second baseman and a former MVP, just checks in as merely very good, not hall worthy. Jones was terrible his single year in blue and had to be close to the worst free agent signing by the Dodgers ever. Haren and Victorino have no shot.

If August and July are the dog days of summer, then the period after the World Series until the winter meetings start has to be the Winter Doldrums. Very little going on in baseball as everyone gets ready for Thanksgiving and the meetings in December. I do not think after watching him all these years that AF is going to change his spots all of a sudden and jump in before he knows who all the players are. I also think that anyone who puts up a trade scenario that involves Dustin May going anywhere has not been watching AF work for the last 5 years. He is not trading May in any package. 22 year old controllable arm at the league minimum with the upside and stuff he has? Get serious. Maybe some hot prospect down on the farm would go. But they are not unloading any of their starters at this point. Forget getting Bauer or any other free agent pitcher. AF is also not going to break the bank for another free agent at this point in time. Oh he could surprise us maybe. But I have to believe the plan is put Lux at second in spring and the job is his to lose. They would much rather have CT3 in the utility role Kike had especially since the chances of Kike coming back seem pretty slim. I also think Joc moves on. When they get some idea about the DH is when they will move on Turner. He is not a full time 3rd baseman. Even thought I prefer him at first, Belli is the CF. He and Mookie are elite defenders out there and some of the plays they made in the playoffs were pretty spectacular. I do not see Lux moving to the outfield. The kids confidence is probably at it’s lowest point, so why put him in the position of having to learn another position on the field and ruin it entirely. If Pham is non tendered i could see them giving him a call. He does add some RH pop to the lineup. I really suck at predicting, but I do not see any major moves this off season. There just is not a need. The bullpen is and will be the main focus.

I wonder if people are being too optimistic regarding Muncy. He had a terrible year at the plate, redeemed a bit by a good World Series. But he was a diamond in the rough signing, never hit above .260 or so at his best, and last year was below .200. It is possible that he will bounce back with a big year, but more likely that he will not. if not, we have a big hole in the lineup, in the crucial fourth spot. The Dodgers lineup does have holes, unless Bellinger comes back with a season resembling 2019, at least the first part of it. We’ve got Betts and Seager, and then we hope that Bellinger is not a .250 hitter with power, and that Muncy is not a .220 hitter now, and that Turner will not miss half the season. Taylor is a .260 hitter, and Smith probably is, too, though that would be fine for a catcher. We had trouble manufacturing runs against the Braves and Tampa Bay, and we did against the Nationals and Red Sox. I think that we need another big bat. It is not like we waltzed through the playoffs.

This ownership and front office has mostly preferred to stand pat, make a few small changes to the bullpen. The trade for and signing of Betts was remarkable in that it was unusual. The inclination would now be to do almost nothing, maybe for years. But I don’t think that we have a juggernaut. We really do need a leftfielder, and Taylor at 2B is at best adequate. The bullpen is iffy, as it proved during the playoffs last year. We need a closer, we have not had a legitimate one for two years now. The only thing that saved us in the playoffs was the ability to use Urias out of the bullpen. There wasn’t one of our standard relievers whom we could count on in the late innings, though Treinen did pretty well. We should probably have signed him for two seasons, but we do not like to do that with reliever pickups; and then if they do well, we lose them, as of course Trenein wants to go somewhere where he can get a multi-year deal and be the closer. Do we want to go into next season with Jansen nominally our closer again? I hope not. And to get a legitimate closer, we are going to have to give up something worthwhile.

So there are things we need to improve, if we intend to win another title. We might get by with doing very little, but only if best case scenarios for Bellinger, Muncy, Turner, Jansen, Kershaw , come through. I guess it is true of all fans, but certainly many Dodgers fans and broadcast people extrapolate that anyone who had a really good year like Seager, will have just as good a following season, and that Kershaw will have as good a year as this last one; while those who disappointed, like Bellinger and Muncy, will bounce back to have their high-end seasons. It’s all possible, but awfully optimistic. We should be strong even if we do nothing, but the Braves may well be better, as they almost were this year. The Dodgers rarely slip in to win a title when they are the second-best team in the league.

I would listen to any trade conversations involving young prospects especially Lux and would toss Beaty and Muncy into that category as well. I see Muncy nowhere but 1st base which Belli is more than capable of playing better. But NO young pitchers are included in trade talks, especially May. I think he has a huge upside and nasty stuff. I think the swing and miss issues can be solved with better location and something soft. He’s going to be a dude someday and hopefully not with somebody else.

1. Highly highly highly unlikely that SD trades Wil Myers to LAD. But then the dominos begin to fall. Muncy has to go to 2B. CT3 goes to platoon with Rios at 3B. And then the most illogical, Lux becomes a platoon in LF with AJP. This is a WS champion and these wholesale changes are what is necessary to make the team better? Haven’t we learned yet that platoons do not win championships? For the postseason, the lineups were pretty much fixed, with the exception of LF/DH. If you want a LF platoon with AJP, re-sign Joc, or put Matt Beaty out there. If the best you think of Gavin Lux is as a platoon LF, then move him before you completely destroy his value.

2. I think there will be a universal DH. You cannot put toothpaste back in the tube. That means there will be extended playoffs. Players will sign off as this is where they can best market themselves, and owners want the revenue. It really is a no-brainer that two sides should be able to figure out without too much animus.

3. I would not trade Gavin Lux straight up for Josh Hader. How do you reconcile that a 26 year old pitcher is losing velo. Hader is now down to two pitches, fastball and slider. He has more than doubled the use of his slider, from 15.5% to 32.2%. His swing and miss rate for strikes decreased from 22.7% to 16.1%. His percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown in the strike zone went from 65.3% to 78.8%. The total percentage of pitches a batter swings at went from 58.7% to 45.2% (not fooling as many batters). Why did all of these happen? Before you give up on a MiLB Player of the Year, you might want to learn why about all of the above.

4. Yes the Lindor rumors will not die. But the likelihood of Seager agreeing to move to 3B and both Seager and Lindor agreeing to long term extensions is remote at best. But I guess it could happen.

5. I would not trade Dustin May straight up for one year of Lindor. Championships are built from within and generally with homegrown pitching. The Dodgers were able to trade for Mookie Betts because they did not have to give up a Dustin May. Betts negates the need for Verdugo. The Dodgers had Lux and Downs was blocked by him. Connor Wong was blocked by Smith/Ruiz/Cartaya. And they got a former Ace at half the cost thrown in. No potential top of the rotation pitcher dealt away. What does Cleveland want with Matt Beaty and Cody Thomas? Why not Keibert Ruiz, DJ Peters, and Jo Jo Gray? Cleveland would say no, but as long as people just want to throw names out. JUST SAY NO to trading Dustin May. I am not saying he will, but he has a chance at being special. You do not trade that.

6. Perhaps a better solution: Sign JT to play 3B/DH with Rios, leave Muncy at 1B, put Gavin Lux at 2B and leave him there, if you need to platoon AJP, do it with Beaty or McKinstry. Leave Smith where he belongs, at catcher, and let Austin catch CK. ST and the first 162 are not must wins, so Buehler should be okay to work with Smith to develop a good rapport. Yes, that means that Ruiz stays at AAA. There are RH bats out there. I suspect that it is far more likely that AF will wait for SD to non-tender Tommy Pham and then give him a call, than to take Preller’s call for a Wil Myers trade.

Theo Epstein just stepped down reported by the Athletic. Muncy isn’t going to play 2B full time. Why not trade Muncy for Voit?

There is talk in NY that Voit may be available for pitching. That would be a big rh bat and move Muncy to second. And he’s controllable for 3 more years. But who would you give up? Got to believe May would have to be involved

Not trading May.

Lux in a deal for Hader. Makes some sense.

Dodgers are re-signing Turner. Otherwise the Myers thing might work, but would the Padres send him to the Beast of the West? Probably not.

Seager has repeatedly said he wants to play short. So no Lindor. Guessing the cost In prospects would be high.

The Dodgers could sign Bauer, trade Price to the Angels. Or probably not, but it’s a thought.

Smyly’s deal is just a shocker! So much for bargain shopping! Got to believe that puts a pause in the signings. What everyone thought would be a Cub’s dynasty back in 16 didn’t pan out. Epstein made some bad and expensive signings, Hayward and Kimbrel and no player development. Epstein? Gives me a new and better appreciation for AF. He’s had some misses but nothing crippling like Epstein! Congrats to AF and his entire team! Well deserved! Maybe AF has finally passed the Bear test!

That is the second time AF has won it. He won it in TB in 2008!

Baseball America called the Dodgers the model franchise in the sport under Friedman’s tenure as President.

AF was just named Exec of the year. This is an award that is voted on by all 30 teams. Absolutely well deserved.

It looks as though Theo is thinking of tearing down the Cubs and then leaving. If he’s really interested in doing that, the one Cub I want above all the others is Hendricks. He still has three years of control so it’s not likely they would move him, but you never know. If they really want to stock pile good young players, I’d give them May and Ruiz.

2021 Rotation: Kershaw, Buehler, Hendricks, Price, Urias/Gonsolin

2021 Lineup

1 Mookie Betts

2 Corey Seager

3 Max Muncy

4 Will Smith

5 Cody Bellinger

6 A.J. Pollock

7 Edwin Rios/Turner

8 Chris Taylor/Lux

Ruiz

McKinstry

Whoever

Projected 2021 Starters

1 Clayton Kershaw

2 Walker Buehler

3 Julio Urias

4 David Price

5 Dustin May

6 Tony Gonsolin

Pen

Jansen

Graterol

Floro

Kelly

Kolarek

Whoever

As much as I want the best defensive shortstop in baseball I’ll settle for the 16th best and hope he puts some time in on working his defense. Hader? I doubt it but sure, give him, his 3.79 ERA and lost velocity a go. He still strikes guys out.

This team doesn’t need much. But it does need to send pitchers to Driveline and get players prepared for another shortened season. Yeah, I said it. We’ll get the truth eventually, but not until early next year. In the mean time the house is on fire.

Those are interesting scenarios. I wouldn’t trade May at list point unless a Bauer signing is imminent. I also think Kris Bryant makes a whole lot more sense than Will Myers or Francisco Lindor. Will Myers is a pass for me. He had a nice season last year, but seldom has nice seasons. He’s the Drew Smyly of position players.

I wouldn’t have Muncy at 2B with Taylor at 3B and Myers at 1B. That changes the configuration of the entire infield sans Corey Seager. I don’t think that’s what a World Series Champion team wants to do in order to defend their title. It would make more sense to let Rios play 3B, CT3 at 2B and trade Muncy in that scenario.

Hader would be a great pickup, but the loss of velocity gives me pause.

Clevenger and the Padres, what a bummer for them, but sweet for us. This is a big blow and they don’t have the money to throw at the problem. They might as well see what they have with all those young arms, or perhaps they can make a trade to bolster next season, hampering their future in the process.

https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-prospect-luis-rodriguez-eyeing-big-leagues