Before we start this discussion, let’s remember that the time between the Holidays is a real dog when it comes to the Hot Stove League, thus, these really are the Dog Days.
OK, let’s look at what the Kemp-Puig-Wood-Farmer trade produced. The Dodgers sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and $7 million Dollars to the Reds for Homer Bailey and two nice prospects. Very simply, the Dodger save about $7 to $8 million dollars next year and the Reds got two starting outfielders, a starting pitchers and a utilityman. The most important part is that this saves the Dodgers about $14 million luxury tax payroll NEXT season. That’s really all you need to know.
Many Cincinnati Reds blogs, like The Blog Red Machine are proclaiming victory in the trade… but of course they are, because they have had nothing but losers since… The Big Red Machine. So… if you are of the opinion that getting the most MLB experienced talent back is how you rate a trade, then the Dodgers were losers. Sadly, there are some Dodger bloggers who also think the same thing. The thing they are missing… is that EVEN IF the Dodgers don’t make another move (there will be more moves), the team may be better than 2018 because they have so much depth… and you never know who will step up next.
We all have an idea, who that COULD be:
- Alex Verdugo may become an extraordinary hitter. We don’t know, but he has the tools. I read somewhere that no one will play RF as good as Yasiel Puig. That’s really silly! Verdugo has a cannon like Puig, but he is not known for missing cut-off men and throwing to the wrong base, like The Wild Horse. Alex Verdugo’s Peak is Tony Gwynn and his basement is Von Joshua. Unless the Dodgers trade him (and I doubt that they will), he has a shot at stardom.
- When the Dodgers offered Hyun-Jin Ryu the Qualifying Offer they knew that he might accept, and that Alex Wood, who was not happy to be in the bullpen would have to be traded. If you look at pure stats, Ryu was the Dodgers best pitcher last year. He is still learning how to REALLY pitch and his 1.97 ERA and 1.008 WHIP could put him into Cy Young contention next year. 2019 could be Ryu’s “lightening in a bottle.” 2019 is Ryu’s last season with the Dodgers and it could be “one for the ages.”
- Matt Kemp had a nice season (first half anyway), but he shoved too much cake down his piehole and his 1.1 WAR paled in comparison to Joc Pederson‘s 2.3 WAR. Now, if they could just teach Pederson how to hit lefties… well that’s exactly what they are planning to do!
- Who replaces Kyle Farmer? Good kid. Not a loss. Edwin Rios? Maybe.
Three years frown now, we can fully evaluate the trade… and what if Jeter Downs or Josiah Gray becaome stars or what if they are traded for a stud starting pitcher (I’m not even metioning Cory Kluber).
The 800 Pound Gorilla
OK, let’s get to it. Bryce Harper is the 800 pound gorilla… and it seems that he has his eye on the Dodgers. Well duuuuhhhhhh! But he’s LH and the Dodgers need a Lefty Killer… or two. He’s not a left killer, but Nicholas Castellanos is! Yeah, he’s a horrible rightfielder, but he only has to play LF for the Dodgers. Casty could be the next JD Martinez. I am not against Bryce Harper, and if he wants tp be a Dodger, I can see that happening, but I can’t see Borass allowing that to happen. I don’t hate him or anything, but I’d rather have Casty and another player than Harper. Put Nick in LF and work with him on defense… he can get better. He’s only 26 and still has ability to grow. He would be a great RH bat in the middle of a lineup that is predomoniately LH.
The Luxury Tax
I think the Dodgers could be over the Luxury Tax in 2019 (slightly… not a big deal). I expect a deal for Castellanos and a catcher like Nick Hundley. Friedman will figure out who he has to trade as long as their names are not Verdugo, Ruiz or Lux. I look for positive improvement from Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger. Max Muncy could be a casuality in the trade for Casty.
On Corey Kluber: I could not see it when it was first mentioned and I cannot see it now. The Padres are involved now and they have more MLB ready talent than the Dodgers which is what the Indians want. The Indians didn’t want Puig or Kemp and Wood did not interesr them. I have heard that Friedman was working with all kinds of teams to trade Puig, Kemp and Wood and that the market for them was very light. We may like those players, but other GM’s evidently did not value them like we might think. I read somewhere that Friedman gave them away too cheap. Do you really think he did not burn up the phone lines and talk to every team trying to move them? Of course he did, but people who say such things really have no idea how other teams value your players.
For the record, I expect Fat Kemp to show up at Spring Training and I would not be the least bit surprised if Alex Wood’s arm fell off. I am not wishing for that. It’s just that I have felt he was conceling an injury for quite some time now. Puig could have a monster year in Great American Ballpark or he could press to impress in order to get a great new contract and fall flat on his face. Matt Kemp was a nice story for half the season, but that wasn’t happening again. It used to be his love affair with Rhianna was his undoing. Now, it’s his love affair with food! I can’t condemn him… I need to drop 25 pounds too!
The 2019 Lineup:
- Verdugo RF
- Turner 3B
- Seager SS
- Castellanos LF
- Bellinger 1B
- Taylor CF
- Hernandez 2B
- ________/Barnes C
Conclusion
To me, Casty is a must. If they sign Harper they will still be very LH. Not saying it can’t happen, but if they sign Harper, Muncy will almost certainly get traded and he could be part of the deal for Casty. Casty will make the Dodgers Nasty. Oh, and I will continue to predict a “Breakout Season” for Kike Hernandez… like I always do!
Just remember, the team Friedman starts the season with, may not be the team he ends with. A lot can happen between now and then…
Seven Weeks Until Pitchers and Catchers Report!
- Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com has a nice Q & A about trades and such.
Discussion (41)
Disagree, not disagreeable
OK, I’ll bite.
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1. Dodgers sign Harper
2. Dodgers trade Maeda, Pederson and Taylor for Kluber
3. Dodgers trade Downs, Gray, May, Barnes and Alvarez for Realmuto
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Lineup:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Turner 3B
3. Seager SS
4. Harper LF
5. Bellinger CF
6. Realmuto C
7. Muncy 1B
8. Hernandez 2B
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Rotation:
Ace: Kersahaw, Buehler, Kluber
4. Ryu
5. Hill
6. Stripling
7. Urias
https://www.dodgersnation.com/rumor-dodgers-on-the-10-or-20-yard-line-with-bryce-harper-ce1110/2018/12/27/
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Dodgers in Red Zone with Harper.
from MLB Trade Rumors
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“7:03pm: The San Diego organization has held some talks regarding Kluber as well as Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). But while “the Padres could still add a starting pitcher for 2019,” he says, “it won’t be one of those two.”
Needless to say, that’s a rather forthright rebuke of the earlier reporting this evening, which had characterized the Padres as active and strong pursuers of Kluber.”
Barnes in 2017 = .289/.408/.486 in 218 at-bats.
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Realmuto in 2018 = .277/.340/.484 this year (albeit in twice as many at-bats and with three times as many home runs).
1. Will Smith is MLB ready defensively.
2. He could be a backup to a catcher like Realmuto but not Barnes.
3. Trade Barnes and Verdugo for Realmuto. Others like Alvarez as needed.
4. Trade Hill for Stanton if Harper will agree to a contract from the Yanks to replace Stanton. Collect the $30M from Miami in 2021 of Stanton doesn’t opt out per the agreement Yanks have with Miami.
5. Make due with a rotation of Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Stripling, Maeda, Urias
Nice topic to get some responses, if Puig got no interest with a similar arb projection and same team control why would Castellanos command anything more than a couple lower prospects and certainly not Muncy? I prefer a Joc/CT3 platoon to Castellanos.
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It has already been stated by Doc/Faz that Muncy and Cody would not be platooned much, pencil them in at 1B and CF. Freese and CT3 can take some starts there too. Max and Cody are not being traded.
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Moving Puig opens up a spot for Verdugo and they will give him every opportunity to stick in RF, he is not being traded unless there is a move for Stanton/Harper.
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Freidman may be slow playing the market waiting for the price to drop on Kluber/JTR or Harper/Stanton. Or it could be a vet catcher and bullpen guy. 2B has so many internal options, just don’t see a big need there.
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Pollock? Pass. Castellanos? Pass. DJLM or Dozier? Not needed, Pass. JTR or Harper? At the right price. Kluber? Make it so. Stanton? Growing on me.
Good discussion, I think this time Friedman will do what is more unexpected, and that will be to sign Harper (I don’t like it), but Harper will sell a lot a tickets and will be more marketable than Kersh. MLB ever since Jeter retire has been wanted to make Harper the face of MLB, and I think ownership wants that face,, and what a better place than Hollywood. It will make MLB better, everybody will win.
Yes Lefty heavy, but Yanks are righty heavy., so what learn to hit lefties.
I like Kluber but not for Verdugo, and his on the wrong side of 30. I really think Ruy will be lights out.
I could like the Castellanos trade to balance the lineup, but for one year control no thanks, they will get Realmuto (more control years) with the assets they got from cincy.
Interesting your assessment of the range of potential for Verdugo, (from Joshua to Gwynn). I’ll take Gwynn and his slashes to the 5.5 hole any day of the week. I’m not as high on Verdugo, but would be thrilled to be wrong. I love his defense though and actually see improvement there over Puig due to Yasiel’s frequent mental lapses out there.
Almost everyone knows the Dodgers too heavy hitting from the left side of the plate. I love Harper, but he’s too expensive and we need that right handed stick. Castellanos is an amazing bat, but he’s like Muncy in the sense that his greatest value is as a DH. I’d prefer AJ Pollock who can play a solid center field. Yes, I know his fragility and injury history, but there are enough outfielders in the system to make up for someone going down with injury.
That would be a solid defensive outfield with Verdugo in RF, Pollock in CF and Taylor in LF. There are still too many outfielders with Pederson, Kike, Toles, DJ Peters waiting in the wings, (and probably others that aren’t coming to mind at the moment). Certainly some more outfield talent will be peddled off in a trade or two.
Yesterday Alex Wood was interviewed on the MLB Network. He didn’t say anything earth shattering. Simply that he appreciated his time in L.A. and that he will miss his teammates. He said he’s eager to see what he can do in Cincinnati and that he isn’t concerned about being moved to a team that plays in a hitter friendly park.
The rumors of Kluber to San Diego may be a page Cleveland took out of the Scott Boras playbook as they posture to see if they can get the Dodgers to beef up their offer. The Tribe want Verdugo and I don’t think Freidman is willing to go that far. San Diego is a tough organization to figure out. Are they all in this year, or are they waiting for their top prospects to season a bit more before gunning for the Division Title? They will be a force to reckon with in 2 years, unless they trade off their high end prospects (Tatis Jr., Gore) in an attempt to win it this year.
I’m loving the fact that Freidman appears to be staying a way from those long term deals that could hamstring the team for years. One thing he will have to calculate is Seager’s walk year and Bellinger too. Both are repped by Boras and will without a doubt taste the free agent market, as that is Boras’ M.O.
I think the Dodgers interest in Nick Castellanos is genuine. They do need someone to mash lefties, and Kike’ mashing MadBum only goes so far. I have no problem with a poor defensive player in LF. Greg Luzinski did just fine for Philadelphia in LF. Castellanos did just hit lefties, he crushed them; .381/.432/.571/1.004. He hit into only 8 DP’s all year in 678 PA, so he does have that launch angle down. He did strike out 151 times. If RVS is going to get players to cut back on their strikeouts, why not include Nick. In addition, there is some concern that his BAbip of .450 is not sustainable, and I would agree. Although, his career mark against lefties is .295/.348/.503/.851 with a much more sustainable BAbip of .343.
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Max Muncy for Castellanos is probably not that far off (if at all). I know some here do not want to lose Muncy. Let us not forget that the Dodgers did not win the WS last year and to do nothing other than hope that players like Max repeats 2018, or CT3 repeats 2017, or Joc learns how to hit lefties, is not sound strategy IMO. It is not that I do not like Muncy. In fact, it was almost a year now (Jan 2, 2018) that I wrote an article on Max before most everyone even knew his name. It started out as follows:
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“There has been a lot of discussion about the Dodgers needing a LH hitting 2B this offseason. Okay maybe I have been the one talking about it. I have recommended the Dodgers look at Jace Peterson as the potential LH hitting 2B even without ever hearing one report that FAZ was interested. Yangervis Solarte and Erick Aybar are others that have at least drawn some attention. But my attention has now been directed to a player the Dodgers picked up off of waivers from the A’s last Spring…Max Muncy.”
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The entire article is below:
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https://ladodgertalk.com/2018/01/02/lh-hitting-2b-how-about-max-muncy/
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Alex Verdugo plays CF because he reads the ball very well and gets a great 1st step. He is not fast, but he gets to the gaps very efficiently. He is more suited for RF with his ability to read the ball off the bat, plus he has a tremendous arm. Of all the top OF prospects in MiLB, only super prospect Victor Robles matches Verdugo’s arm, and only one other comes close (Jo Adell – Angels). Other super OF prospects Kyle Tucker and Eloy Jimenez do not come close to Verdugo’s arm. Verdugo is kind of a tweener. He is not fast enough for CF, and he does not have enough power for RF. You live with his tools, and maybe he gets comfortable in the lineup and generates a lot of runs without hitting HR’s. I do not think many baserunners will be testing Alex after a while.
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I am not anti Hyun-Jin Ryu. But to even imply that he was the best pitcher based on stats for 82 innings is questionable. I do not have the desire to match Stripling’s best 82 innings, but I bet he comes close. How about Buehler’s best 82 or Kershaw’s or Hill’s? As I said before, make sure Ryu does not start in Arizona or Colorado. That is 6 series that there is a better chance for a loss than a win. Maybe LAD should just work the rotation, so he only starts at Dodger Stadium, because he does pitch well there. Maybe that was Boras’ requirement so that Ryu could get some big numbers going into next year’s FA market.
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I am not predicting what the Dodgers will do with Harper. He is not the RH bat they do need. However, he apparently does want to play for LA (or at least that is what is reported). Maybe it is posturing to get NYY and Philly back in the bidding. I do not see Harper signing anywhere before Machado, and he is not going to sign before New Year’s (or so he says). If they do sign Harper, there will not be much if anything more, and I believe there are a lot of fans who are okay with that. I am not one of them.
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With respect to Corey Kluber, I can certainly see why he may be going downhill. After all he was only #3 in CY voting last year after winning it for the 2nd time the year before. He had 215 IP (2 ½ times more than Ryu). He was 20-7 with 222 K and 34 BB, 2.89 ERA and 0.991 WHIP. He is all of one year older than Ryu (almost to the day). He has three years control. He will cost less than Ryu in 2019, and if Boras has his way, also 2020 and 2021. Who knows, if Ryu only pitches in Dodger Stadium he just may get there.
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Kershaw will undoubtedly get opening day starter honors for the 8th time, but he is no longer the Dodgers #1. Kershaw is probably a #3 with a bad back that cannot be counted on for a full season. I hope I am wrong, but he has not been able to stay off the DL for that last 3 years, with significant loss. If the Dodgers had a rotation of Kluber/Kershaw/Buehler/Hill/Ryu with Maeda and Stripling in the pen for spot starts as will undoubtedly be needed, that would be a hard rotation to match.
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These are indeed Dog Days. It is very hard to be creative and try to find something new to write about.
https://www.oregonlive.com/expo/news/erry-2018/11/9f131f89806005/portland-diamond-project-has-d.html
The jury is still out on this trade and it won’t take 3 years for the verdict to come in.
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This team better in 2019 if no other moves are made – how do you lose two of three of the best RH hitters on the team that is LH hitter heavy and not make a difference? Especially when the guy who replaces Puig is a lefty. And knowing this is a team who has struggled to hit lefties for years!
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Verdugo may be a star in the making, with a canon arm but what was great about Puig’s arm was the accuracy.
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In addition I fail to see this team better with Barnes as the primary catcher. He is a super utility player (who forgot how to hit) and the Dodgers team is full of utility players. We need another star or two who can carry the team.
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That said, agree that Harper is not the answer.
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With all the talk and rumors on Kluber the Dodgers must see value in a trade there, especially in light of the mixed results come WS time with the present pitching staff.
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Looking forward for the 2nd and 3rd part of Freidman’s moves.
Fans don’t realize how high Friedman, the Dodgers organization and scouts around the league are on Verdugo. They believe he will be the next Corey Seager, and they aren’t worried about the power because they know it will develop, mainly because he’s been working with Famed trainer Gil Reyes, the one who got Andre Agassi to that top tier step. They know a players hit tool is the hardest to teach, they realize Verdugo is leaps and bounds ahead oh anyone in the organization in that category and that includes Ruiz, Lux and others. Dodgers wont trade Verdugo. There has been speculation since 2015 about him being traded, when you hear these reports about Dodgers wanting to trade him don’t believe the hype, I have actual sources, the ones who call the shots saying they plan on starting him in 2019 and they are expecting a very good year by him. Possibly a ROY contention, fans are upset now because he hasn’t made a name for himself yet, but when he started this year he was hitting over .300 until September and he stopped starting, that really gave the FO the confidence in Verdugo that they have to this day. I think the Dodgers need for a RH bat is a little over blown.. if Verdugo, Seager, Belly, Muncy can all hit lefties well and I believe the first two will this year I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised.
…”Who replaces Kyle Farmer? Good kid. Not a loss. Edwin Rios? Maybe.”
Give Kike’ lots of time at catcher in spring training. He is the emergency catcher now. Farmer was basically the emergency catcher last year when he was on the team. That would make Kike’ the super duper utility player.
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If Harper wants a $300M contract then structure it with about $200M in the first 5 years and then $100M in the last 5 years with an opt out after 5 years. That would overpay him in his prime and he would either be gone after his prime or earning a salary commensurate with his output if he fades in the second half of his contract. If he opts out and gets a $200M contract at age 31/32, he would wind up with a $400M 10 year equivalent salary. Hopefully, if the Dodgers gave him that front ended contract, it would include him having to hit some incentive marks.
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The Dodgers should go with pitching and defense first and then sneak a hitter into the lineup. Therefor no to Castellanos. Might note that Harper’s numbers averaged for the last 3 years are not all that special and combined with his below average defense, is at least concerning.
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The Yankees are no longer being mentioned as a pursuer of Harper and instead are after Machado. That means they might only be interested in Harper if they can trade Stanton. I still see a path for the Dodgers to get Stanton. Maybe that path would have to include a trade of Verdugo for Baur or Kluber.
I think Friedman wanted to rid the Dodgers of some dollars and some headaches when he did the Cincy trade. I am just surprised that there was nothing to follow. He was satisfied with the trade if nothing else develops. Allowing verdugo to start, getting some money back, more room under the cap, and 2 young prospects was a trade he could live with if there are no other developments. The players we lost had very little value. As far as Castellanos he is a right handed hitter the Dodgers need. But he is weak defensively and only has one year until free agency. For some it takes a while to fit into a new league. Why don’t the tigers just keep him? He won’t sign an extension for one thing. I just don’t think I would give up much for a guy who is a half player, 1 year until free agency, a new league, and at what cost. Harper is probably just a fantasy. The Dodgers don’t appear to be able to stay under the cap with the signing so its probably 80% unlikely. Kluber will not be worth verdugo so very little chance there although it could be 50-50. A catcher yes, Maldonado probably. I wonder what the players think of the trade? Kershaw, turner, Jansen were all outspoken about how much they wanted kemp. They are probably glad to be rid of puig.