Andrew Toles was optioned to the minor leagues today, while Joc Pederson made the big club. For the record, I am an Andrew Toles fan – I predicted he would be a good player long before he was called up in the first place, but now some fans think he was mistreated when they sent him back to the minors. Was he? You decide:
Andrew Toles his .283 this spring, but his OB% was only .286 because he has just 1 BB in 53 spring at-bats. That is troubling and unsustainable. He also needs to work on his outfield routes. I will say this: Andrew Toles has a higher upside than Joc Pederson… way higher, but he needs to improve on pitch recognition and defense. The only way to do that is to play everyday. He can only play “everyday” at OKC.
Andrew beat Joc in spring stats, but this is not about the Spring Battle – it is about the War to win the World Series. It’s based upon a lot of things, not just a spring training batting average!
Chris Taylor hit .354 with a .483 OB% last Spring and did not make the team. Cody Bellinger hit .393 with a .541 OB% in 2016 and did not make the team in 2016. In 2013, Yasiel Puig hit .517 with a .500 OB% (no walks) and he did not make the team, so Andrew Toles .283 is chicken feed, and it’s chicken _________ if you think this was somehow bad for Toles.
Look, I think Joc needs a fresh start, but he’s not going to get it in OKC. Hopefully, he will do well and improve his trade value so that the Dodgers can move him… or not. Joc has remarkable power and that is something everyone, including the Dodgers, covet.
There is a lot of ground to cover and a lot of things to be decided, but I guarantee that Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and Dave Roberts have had in depth conversations with Toles. He has not been wronged and I doubt that he thinks so. His time will come… and soon!
The bottom line is that Joc will likely do one of three things:
- He will do poorly;
- He will do very well; or
- He will get traded.
His trade value will only be enhanced if he does well on the Dodgers. This is a low risk, high reward situation. There is no right or wrong, just what it really is – reality!
Toles will be back… or he could be part of a blockbuster trade (I hope not).
Matt Kemp for MVP!
This roster will change a lot. Don’t Panic!
Discussion (90)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Anyone concerned that Jansen is only throwing his cutter 89? He only got into 2 or 3 spring games. He probably hasn’t built up arm strength yet. Brilliant.
Well ^&*(+_)(**&^%$#!!!!!
7 hits 4 errors 0 runs in two games
When does Turner come back?!?
This team needs to wake up.
The Dodgers can’t hit themselves in the butt with both hands.
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Forsythe can’t play 3B (Tonight)
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Joe Panik is the new Giancarlo Stanton
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Sometimes i HATE baseball
Don’t Panik!
Finally, Christ has risen
Who needs a Number Two?
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The Dodgers have one: Alex “Freaking” Wood!
DODGERS HITERS ARE LOST
Cueto looks to be pretty fat!
Lineup:
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1. Taylor CF
2. Seager SS
3. Puig RF
4. Bellinger 1B
5. Grandal C
6. Kemp LF
7. Utley 1B
8. Forsythe 3B
9. Wood P
Mark, how many years do we give Joc a chance? He has tried for three years and failed. Do we give him 5 years or maybe 10 years. Just asking. I am basing my decision on what I have seen in the last three years, not what happened last night.
Stat Cast has rankings for speed and I was able to find Barnes and Kemp’s speed ratings. Barnes is 27.3 ft per second and Kemp is 25.6 ft per second. From 1st to home that could have been a pretty wide margin. I don’t want to beat a dead horse on this subject but I did think Barnes was a lot faster than Kemp and Stat Cast seems to back it up. Who knows how accurate this is. I will let Doc off the hook since it wouldn’t have made a difference last night anyway. Also, Joc’s ball that was hit last night, was hit pretty hard up the middle, however Crawford was shifted up the middle and it was hit right at him. We need a bounce back victory tonight. I can’t take another loss to the Giants right now.
AC, maybe the reason we are slow starters is because we do not keep the best 25 players to start the season. They kept Hatcher when he should of been gone a long time ago. They kept the relief pitcher from Seattle, cannot remember his name, for three years because he had a 3 year contract. Those are stupid decisions and I do not see other teams doing this. I follow Seattle and I have never seen them keep a player because they have a contract. Usually at the end of May, FAZ has figured out what they have and does jettison some players. Right now I think Joc is totally useless as a player on the Dodger team. Sometimes you just have to cut your losses and move on. Even if one player makes it later on. I guess I am just mad at Joc. He had three years at the major league level. He has not succeeded doing it his way. He has not changed and that makes me mad. JT and Taylor made changes to what they were doing and succeeded. I am a very stubborn person, but Joc leaves me in his dust.
interesting article by Mike Schmidt (yeah, that Mike Schmidt) about hitting
https://sports.yahoo.com/column-mike-schmidt-says-freelancing-hitters-upswing-175313026–mlb.html
Jon Weisman’s back at Dodger Thoughts
https://www.dodgerthoughts.com/2018/02/14/so-what-am-i-doing/
I also wondered why a pinch runner wasn’t put in for Kemp immediately. But since I haven’t watched individual players that closely this spring, I figured maybe that the 40 pound lighter Kemp was faster than I imagined. And Mark is probably right in stating that there isn’t much of a difference in the speed of Kemp and Barnes. And the short bench could have also played a role.
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I can’t even imagine how being sent down would mess with Toles’ mind. If anything, I think he would accept it as necessary to sharpen his game both offensively and defensively after having been out almost all of last season. And I would not describe Joc as having failed last night. First off, EVERY hitter “fails” most of the time, and secondly, if memory serves, Joc hit the ball pretty hard, but it just lacked “eyes”.
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No doubt, the time of yesterday’s game, given the shadows, no doubt contributed to the lack of scoring, from both sides. Also, HR off of Kershaw would likely have been a routine fly ball if the game had started at 7:10 PT instead of 4:10 PT. The cooler night air would have likely kept it in the park, given that it barely cleared the wall at the earlier hour.
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Bobby, no need to be pissed. 161-1 isn’t a bad year. 🙂
The Dodgers are not likely to win 100+ games again this year. They have only done so twice in the 60 years that they have been in LA. Too many things have to go right to win that many games. I expect mid-90s and another Division title.
I guess I’ll have to pay closer attention to Kemps speed. I wonder why Doc even made the move with two outs if there wasn’t much of a difference? Curious thinking and I hate losing.
Ty Blach has actually been a very good pitcher against the Dodgers, including games he started against Clayton Kershaw. He now has a 2-1 record in starts against Kershaw.
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10/01/16 – 8 IP – 3-0 Giants over Dodgers
04/25/17 – 5 IP – 2-1 Dodgers win over Giants
04/29/18 – 5 IP – 1-0 Giants win over Dodgers
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Overall, he is 2-2 against the Dodgers, and in 41.1 IP over 8 games, has a 1.96 ERA against the Dodgers. In those 8 games, he was bad in only 1…September 11, 2017, a game he was not scheduled to pitch, but came in relief of Chris Stratton who faced 1 batter before being removed (Curtis Granderson strikeout). After a very good 2.2 IP, he got tagged for 4 runs on 5 hits in the 4th inning when he pitched 2/3 of an inning. Take out that inning and his ERA drops to 1.11 against the Dodgers.
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I think we have all been spoiled by Kershaw on opening day which is why yesterday was not a fun day. For the last two years they have started out no better than average. In 2016, the Dodgers were 12-13 after April, and were 21-23 as late as May 21. On June 26, they were 8 games behind the Giants. The Dodgers did not get back to 1st place until August 21, where they stayed for the remainder of the season.
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In 2017, they were 11-12 on April 27, and went on to finish April with a 14-12 record. They did not go into 1st alone until May 30 (for 2 days), and needed until June 21 before they were in 1st for good.
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For the first three years of their latest 5 year run:
2015 – 13-8 after April; 29-20 after May
2014 – 15-12 after April; 30-27 after May
2013 – 13-13 after April; 23-30 after May
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The Dodgers have not been an April/May team.
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The Dodgers offense will not take off until Seager and Bellinger do, especially with JT out.
MJ, What if Grandal hit a ball to the gap? Or if the ball got slightly away from the catcher during Grandal’s at bat? I was just surprised the move didn’t come sooner.
When Kemp reached in the 9th yesterday, I was waiting for a pinch runner for Kemp. I’m not sure why Doc waited until there were two outs before putting in Barnes to run. Anyone else wonder about this?
Dodger Stadium is a tough place to hit late in the afternoon like yesterday. So, they got the first loss out of their system.
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I am in Denver and had a few minutes to write about Toles yesterday. I will be back on April 1st.
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Something else that occured to me is that maybe FAZ is trying not to destroy Joc’s confidence. In fact, Doc showed confidence in him by using him at the end of the game game. Yes. he failed, but at least he knows they believe in him. Really, this is the only way they can create any value if they want to trade him.
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Toles is the future. Joc is ___________.
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You fill it in!
I”m pissed. I really expected us to go 162-0. There goes the bet I made in Vegas!!
Yeah guys, I know we could have hit better, but that will come around. How ’bout the bullpen though? Cingrani and Charquois were excellent. They kept the Dodgers in the game until the end. Feeling real good about that. The offense will hit, and we all know that. It’s the bullpen that worries me, and they pitched like a play-off game today.
Spoke too soon on grandal
What a pathetic offense! Kershaw should have stayed in for his bat. Totally agree with Hawkeye on homerun pitch. Blach would win cy young if he could pitch against la every game. I know just game one but Taylor with the go ahead run at second after seeing 7 straight sliders looks at it right down the middle….maybe could have used Stanton today. Well got to say Grandal has looked good today. Seager picks up right where he left off swinging at every pitch and Bellinger embarrassing. Oh well just overreacting because I rarely get to see them play and when I do this is extremely frustrating.
I’ve been bitching about that stupid 3/4 delivery for two years. It gets hammered consistently. Especially by lefties. Honeycutt needs to have the balls to tell him to lose it.
A-rod is terrible. Worse than Mendoza. Every time he’s predicted a pitch type he’s been wrong. He said that 31 is the new 41 like he and the rest of the juicers didn’t have anything to do with that.
Can anyone remember when a lone voice in the wilderness was predicting Kemp would be starting in LF on opening day?
Same guy that awards the chicken dinners. Good call.
Yimi Garcia to start the season on the DL.
Eric Stephen had an interesting article over at True Blue LA on the first time opening day Dodgers.
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https://www.truebluela.com/2018/3/29/17150704/chris-taylor-cody-bellinger-opening-day-roster-first-time-dodgers
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Taylor
Bellinger
Font
Alexander
Chargois
Farmer
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All but Bellinger (22) are 27 y/o except for Alexander who is 28 y/o. Grit, determination and persistence does pay off. Looking forward to Toles experiencing opening day next year.
Interesting order. not surprised by who is starting-these were my expected starters but I wouldn’t have predicted this batting order.
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Today’s Dodger lineup vs. Giants:
Taylor CF
Seager SS
Puig RF
Hernández 2B
Bellinger 1B
Kemp LF
Grandal C
Forsythe 3B
Kershaw P
Stuff from Heyman:
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1. Some are suggesting the Dodgers may not spend next winter after resetting their tax this year by getting below the $197 million threshold. But that would defeat the purpose of getting themselves below the threshold. At the very least, they will attempt to extend Clayton Kershaw, as Dodgers owner Mark Walter suggested in this space a few weeks ago.
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2. Yasmani Grandal is back to being the No. 1 catcher after Austin Barnes had wrested the job for the World Series.
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3. Klay’s brother Trayce Thompson was DFA’ed. They don’t expect him to clear, according to McCullough.
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4. Bravo, Dodgers owner Mark Walter. The team donated $2 million to help Puerto Rico.
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Stuff from the recent Longenhagen chat:
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Does spring training matter: Was there any prospect that really impressed you this spring? Maybe you were low on someone and then was like why they might actually turn out better then I though?
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Eric A Longenhagen: Dodgers OF who played both ways at BC. Donovan Casey.
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Guest: Do you think that Trevor Oaks can be a big league starter?
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Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a 5th/6th starter but I know scouts who like him a little better than that.
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MK: What team has drafted the best in the past 3 years?
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Eric A Longenhagen: LAD or NYY….. Yeah, it’s probably one of those two
ESPN ranks the Dodgers #2 in MLB. I think that’s a bit rich, but it’s definitely great to read.
Can’t be upset at positive news.
Since it’s free, I’m pasting the forecast below:
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 projected record: 95-67 (first in NL West)
World Series odds: 9-2
Best case: It’s championship or bust for a Dodgers team that came one stinking win from taking it all in 2017. While no one in L.A. would admit it, what might aid that cause is if a couple of starters beyond Clayton Kershaw prove so adept at navigating beyond 18 batters that it convinces Dave Roberts to give them a little longer leash in the postseason. Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Walker Buehler — whoever. Just two arms that can ease the burden of Roberts’ postseason bullpen.
Worst case: There is so much redundancy built into the Dodgers’ roster that it almost feels immune to worst-case scenarios. But they exist for everyone. All teams, even the Dodgers, rely on a certain bit of star power. If Justin Turner’s wrist injury lingers and ruins his season, and if Corey Seager’s elbow becomes a bigger problem, and if Cody Bellinger’s strikeout-heavy cold stretches become a strikeout-heavy cold season, and if Kershaw’s back problems resurface, and if Kenley Jansen’s hamstring pops … you get the picture. Still, a lot of things have to go wrong to keep the Dodgers from the ranks of the elite.
Make-or-break player: Seager is probably the closest thing to a make-or-break player that the Dodgers have. If his elbow keeps him out of the lineup or unable to make the requisite throws from shortstop — and there has been no indication this spring that will be the case — then it creates an unfortunate domino effect. L.A. is deep all over but less deep at shortstop than any other position. Chris Taylor can play there, as can Enrique Hernandez. But if Taylor is taken out of center field, it creates a defensive hole at that spot, and Hernandez is valuable as a utility guy but might not be able to start against righties, anyway. It would simplify matters if Seager’s elbow stays sound.
6) Kemp and Granada hit 35 HR
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7) Kershaw wins Cy Young
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8) Bellinger and Seager are in Top 5 for MVP
Happy Opening Day all!!! Since it’s now official, I”ll make my official baseball predictions for 2018 (last year on opening day, I predicted 100 wins and a title. I was close…)
1) We win at least 97 games and win the division by 10 games or so
2) We beat NY in the World Series
3) Puig hits 35 hr
4) Kike winds up being our 2b starter most of the year and hits 25 hr (Bum will agree with me on this)
5) Chris Archer or Marcus Stroman will be Dodgers come July
Around the Division:
Giants: Adding Austin Jackson, Longoria and Cutch will help the lineup a ton but injuries to the rotation have Blach, Cueto, Derek Holland and Chris Stratton and ? Bullpen added Watson and has Melancon but is iffy otherwise.
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Snakes: Great lineup and good rotation but bullpen has no clear closer and Greinke has battled a groin injury and Ray has struggled all spring. Corbin, Walker and Godwin will need to step up.
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Rocks: Another great lineup and team invested over $100 M in the bullpen. The rotation of Gray, Anderson, Freeland, Bettis and Marquez with Senzatella as swingman does not strike fear. #2 prospect Ryan McMahon forced his way onto the roster with a big spring. He is a LH bat who can play 1B, 2B and 3B.
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Madres: Adding Hosmer and Headly give Myers some protection but OF defense is suspect. Rotation is a mess with Richard, Erlin, Perdomo and Mitchell and Tyson Ross called up when a 5th starter is needed with Lamet on the shelf. Bullpen is not much past Brad Hand. 2B and 3B are glove guys with no stick.
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With Division foes facing off early it will not be long before the picture starts to clear up. The Dodgers look more ready than last year to get off to a good start. Kershaw, Wood and Maeda look ready to go but Hill and Ryu need to refine their command. The bullpen will be a work in progress but Chargois and Cingrani look like the best set up men right now. Alexander is a more 6th and 7th inning guy and Baez and Fields are like the same pitcher, maybe don’t use both in the same game. Stripling and Font should be in low leverage spots for now. Kike gets a big chance to step up with JT out and Puig and Kemp will be tested in the 3 and 5 spots in the lineup. Logan and Grandal have hit well this spring and Taylor has been coming on late.
It is finally here, Dodger baseball starts today.
Things I Do In The Baseball Season
I try to watch as many Dodger games as I can, but my work keeps me busy. When watching games I turn the sound off as I am not interested in what is being said as I am filling out a scorecard, writing notes, and the thing I enjoy the most, playing manager.
I try to see 3 or 4 Dodger games each year, this year I have plans for the Dodger vs the Brewers in Milwaukee on July 21 and 22, and the Cardinals in St Louis on September 15 and 16.
I try to keep up with the minor leagues as I will pick a player or two on each team and follow them throughout the season.
My thoughts on the Dodgers season-opening roster.
Everything Mark said above except for his next to the last sentence I agree with 100%. This is it for Pederson, just too much talent coming up with more upside than he has shown. Farmer will be an interesting player to watch, he could be a major surprise, or he could be back in OKC, by the end of May.
The bullpen I feel will be a revolving door until FAZ feels they have the right arms.
The starting pitching looks good on paper but I have a few worries
My Wishes For The Season
I have two and they are the same for every season.
1 The Dodgers win the division.
2 The Dodgers take the season series from the team and the fans I just can’t stand, the giants.
Play Ball
I don’t agree. Fill your team with winners if you want that elusive World Series. Toles is a winner. Pederson is not. Joc always looks like he’s thinking too much at the plate and lacks confidence. Toles is like Chris Taylor and can be a catalyst near the top of the order. Toles would also make the team on most ball clubs. Joc would not. So for me the wrong decision.
I agree with it all!
Does anyone know when the seasons for OKC, Tulsa, etc begin?
When Kemp starts booting the ball all over left field Toles’ll be back.
I like stories like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and now, I hope, Toles. They are guys who were not wanted. They worked hard and finally make it. You have to credit FAZ for sticking with them. I think they will do the same with Toles. I hope they have had good honest discussions with Toles. Since I do not know what was said, I have to believe they made the right decision. I know I was upset last year when Taylor did not make the team, and that worked out ok.
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I believe in what you say Mark except on one point. Early in the Spring he was playing a lot, and was playing well. The last three weeks he was not playing much and his numbers went down. Maybe that was also an indication that he needs to play every day, and he may not be that good of a part time player. It will begin tomorrow and I will root like hell for the Dodgers.
Well said! I predicted before ST started that guys coming back from injuries with options would open the season in AAA, like Toles, Yimi and Liberatore and likely so would Verdugo. The ones to watch were Font and Thompson with no options left (and Banuelos but he was a real long shot anyway) Thompson got a long look but there was nowhere to put him. Remember Hatcher staying up because he had no options? Eventually the clock ran out for him and it may with Font too but there are a lack of starter options if one of the front line go down so he gets a chance. I agree with your assessment of Joc and why they kept him-for now. Last year it was Gutierrez (who is no Kemp) and Van Slyke who made the cut sending Taylor down, and Hatcher and Avilan made the team over Morrow mainly because they were out of options, plus the Romo experiment was still in progress. Turner’s injury opened a spot for Farmer but he earned it with his play this spring. Is it fair? Not always but performance and injuries will dictate who plays and there is plenty of time for Toles to work on his game and be ready when he gets the call. I like Joc and hope the light goes on but I see him having no chance to unseat any of the OF starters barring injury and also being ill suited to a part time role.