The Tuneup is Over It s Time to Play Ball!

I can’t believe no one is taking Duke Snider @ #3. 42 homers, 136 RBI’s, 126 Runs, 104 BB, .309 BA, …..418 OBP, with 87 SO. What more can you wat from a #3?

So happy! Baseball has started the perfect way; the trash lose

Well done Bums for today’s piece.

Anyone want to take a chance with Upton Jnr? Cheap and plays LF

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/blue-jays-release-melvin-upton-jr-designate-mike-bolsinger.html?fv-home=true&post-id=89184

I have the same concerns about the offense that many others have stated. The Dodgers do prefer OBP and SLG over BA. That in of by itself is a good standard, but with RISP, a BB is not as good as a batted ball with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs, the infield playing back, and a ground ball gets the run home. If the hitter looks to lift the ball, then a fly ball gets the job done. But a walk just leaves it up to the next man up, and puts them in a DP situation.

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Even with OBP as the standard there really is no comparison to this Dodgers team to the Big Red Machine. That 75 Reds team had 2 hitters with greater than .400 OBP, and 6 greater than .350. Steamer projections gives the Dodgers 1, and I think the player identified is unlikely. Where is Reggie Smith’s 1.003 OPS going to come from? Last year the big RBI guys were JT and AGon with 90. JT looks like a solid candidate to get 100 RBI this year, but I cannot predict what AGon might do, because I am not sure how healthy he is. Joc is capable of 30+ HR, but will they be a majority of solo shots? I would like to see Joc bat 7th with Puig 8th, giving Joc more fastball potential. I also would not mind him batting 9th with Forsythe in the leadoff role for the same reason.

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This team is built for a 162 game season. There is no other team that can withstand the injuries that they sustained last year and win 91 games. The pitching (starting and relief) is solid. The defense can be very good. The Dodgers should be in a position to win almost every night. Of course, they will not, but they will be in a position to. Of course that is where these blogs go crazy with fans saying “if so and so only did this”, or “if so and so didn’t try to take that extra base”, or “Woody should never have sent him.” That is where I get myself into trouble, because I am not very patient with second guessers. Players have a split second to make a decision, and muscle memory generally takes over. As long as the effort is there, I can handle the unfavorable results, because the next game, in the same situation, it may turn to be positive.

Well the 2017 season is underway, and the Rays are in 1st, and Yankees in last. That brings a smile to my face.

Bums, great job today. I love analysis. Maybe that is why I like FAZ so much.

Excellent post by Mark and Bums today! I enjoy everything that AC writes and would really enjoy Rick posting also. The LA Dodger Talk site is firing on all cylinders right now! Some others have excellent content in the posts but either no or few comments or a frat house chat room vibe in the comments. Think Blue has great coverage of the minor league affiliates. Not to leave anyone out but Boxout, MJ and Hawkeye really add a lot of insight and spice to this site consistently.

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Rose was a true catalyst on those Big Red teams, Forsythe can dream to be like him someday. Those teams had just average starters though and Sparky was called ‘Captain Hook’. This Dodgers team may have a special rotation in the making. This current team is built for OPS and I agree fall short in the RISP department. Certain players need to grind out more at bats to keep innings going, especially with 2 outs. Looking at the projections I think it is unlikely Puig leads the team in OPS, I would project him lower. I would also move Grandal up from 20 HR’s and .783 OPS projection. Gonzales decline will not be much this year but Seager and Turner are the heart and soul of this lineup. Turner will have a lot more than 19 HR’s . Don’t bat Puig behind AGon and Grandal as you will bottle him up on the bases.

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McCarthy and Ryu showing up healthy and making the rotation is Huge for the team this year. If continues it creates a surplus of live arms and forces some to the bullpen which forces some down to AAA and so on. When Urias returns it gets that much better. Only McCarthy should be left out of a playoff rotation, no need for Kershaw on 3 days rest this year. No Bud Norris type trades either, they have depth that was not present last year. There are arms galore for the bullpen as well, don’t see a major move there until the trade deadline.

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I am still really high on DJ Peters and waiting to see what he does in the OF at Rancho this year. He reminds me of a young Jayson Werth, complete with plus arm and decent speed and extra base type power.

Time to watch the first game of the year: Yanks at Tampa. Good to see it matter.

Can’t wait until we all make our predictions tomorrow. My early prediction? ALL OF US pick us to make the playoffs, and vast majority of us will pick us to do so as the division winner.

I would be willing to try my hand at posting here. I actually have an idea for something germinating right now. Let me know if you really want me to draft something and when you want it and I will put something together.

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I have looked at this Dodger lineup for the past several seasons and have expected more from it than we have gotten and I’m not sure why. Looking 1 – 8 and comparing it to most other teams, i have expected way more run production than we have gotten. Certainly, comparing this years’ Dodgers to the 3 teams suggested by Bumsrap it doesn’t really come close but it shouldn’t. The ’75 Red have 3 Hall of Famers (Bench, Morgan & Perez) and 1 who should be (Rose). The ’55 Dodgers have 4 (Snider, Robinson, Reece and Campanella) and 1 who should be (Hodges). The ’77 Dodgers have 1 who should be (Garvey) or maybe 2 (Smith) and had 4 with 30 HR.

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But that’s not the real issue here – it’s not how this years’ team compares with the Boys of Summer or the Big Red Machine, but why they don’t score more runs than they do. I have a few hypotheses:

1 – Hitting with RISP – since 2011, the Dodgers have been in the bottom 1/2 of all MLB teams with RISP except 2014. Usually they finish in the bottom 1/3. Last year they were 23rd out of 30 teams with RISP.

2 – The Moneyball approach has been to eschew batting average and the ability to put the bat on the ball in favor of OBP (walks) and HRs – you know, the 3 true outcome type of player, like Grandal and Pederson. The Dodgers haven’t had enough guys who could make good contact regularly enough. Funny, teams like KC have won the Series by putting the ball in play. You can’t move runners around, extend innings, etc. without some guys who can hit for average. Look at the teams that Bum mentioned – they had guys who could hit for high average to go with the thumpers. Last years’ Dodgers had 1 regular player who hit over.300 (Seager). The team BA was .249. (They hit .250 with RISP – no big surprise I guess if you only hit .249 overall.) The ’55 Dodgers hit .271; so did the ’75 Reds. The ’77 Dodgers hit .266.

3 – Lack of ability to hit lefties. ‘Nuf said.

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So – what have the Dodgers done this year to remedy the lack of ability to hit for average, to hit with RISP, to hit lefties? Not very much.

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Do you expect a different outcome with the same players? I don’t. Like Bumsrap said, that’s why pitching will be so important this year.

Pederson is still doing his batter’s box Pederson Shuffle. How long will it last? Homers and strikeouts. Avila and Hatcher are out of options, so I read, and this is the reason they are on the team now. The Dodgers don’t want other teams to pick them up. What’s the chance?

Bum,

I will tell you this, I was proud of Joc in this series, because he was shortening his swing, with two strikes.

And that HR he hit on that 3, 0 count last night, was my favorite HR, that Joc has hit, because he was so patient, and he didn’t swing out of his shoes, on that 3,0 count.

He really didn’t swing that hard at all, so I hope he remembers that.

And I was glad to see Puig get two hits too.

I hope this gives both Joc and Puig, more confidence, for the season ahead.

Personally I don’t think Toles should lead off.

I think he is still learning how to hit major league pitching, so I think he would be better, toward the bottom of the line up.

Because if Toles was to lead off, he would have to change his game, and try to see more pitches, and to be more patient to get on base, anyway, he can.

And right now, he isn’t that type of player.

I think Logan’s experience with major league pitching, and his experience, being a lead off hitter, will serve the team better right now.

Not only can he get the best out of the lead off position, he can come back to the bench, and share with his team mates, what pitches are working, for the other team’s pitcher that day.

Because Logan does see, a lot of different pitches.

I think having Puig hit toward the back of the line up, is a good decision, by Roberts too.

This way, Puig won’t have as much pressure on himself, while he is trying to change his approach, to hit up the middle, and to the right side, where most of his power, is at.

I am excited for the season ahead, and I hope Ryu can hold up this year.

Because Ryu really knows how to pitch, and he can be a difference maker.

I also think Maeda looks stronger this year, and I am talking about the way, he has pitched, in spring training, and especially in his last start.

The Dodgers have a tough schedule in this first month, not only because of the teams they will be facing, but because they won’t be having that many days off.

I hope they can stay at least at 500, in this first month.

I think Reggie Smith hit 3rd for the most part. This year’s offense doesn’t compare to any of them.

People have been arguing about who are the “greatest” baseball players since the game was invented. After reading Bumsrap’s thoughts above, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

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Forsythe over Rose? Wish it would, but never going to happen. I remember hating Rose in 1975, looking at that stat line, I remember why. The all-time hit champion had a .406 OBP with 50 strikeouts in 764 PA that year, OUTSTANDING!! Oh, and he was a switch-hitter! I take Rose ANY day of the week over Forsythe who I like very much.

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Morgan, Didn’t like him much in 1975 either, but Mays and Mantle can bat third in MY lineup ANY day of the week over Morgan. Mays especially remains the “prototypical” #3 hitter.

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Looking forward to reading everyone’s Predictions. A little advance from me is that, Steamer’s projections quoted above sounds about right. “The 2017 Dodger lineup is “solid”, but “The 2017 Dodgers will need to pair great pitching and defense to this lineup to win a World Series.” Happily, I think the Dodgers have the goods to do just that!!

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Interesting comparisons Bumsrap! Good job.

Our farm system looks great. There are players going to AAA, that would be on most major league teams. All farm teams should be loaded. The Dodgers are very high on White and Beuhler. Sierra has the tools to be great, but does he have the command. Bellinger looks like he belongs right now. Verdugo is right behind.

Bumsrap, all those stats are great I am sure. I just use the eye test. It has served me well over the years. McCarthy certainly has great movement on his pitches. Sometimes he just grooves a fastball and it gets whacked. If he can stay away from the middle of the plate, he would be great.

Let the season begin. Go Dodgers.

Very unique and interesting comparison Bums. Thanks for the time and effort to distil and format this information in this manner. It offers an opportunity for an interesting and hopeful expectation of the future based on the past. I can relate to that.