I know that many are afraid of a Betts/Price trade because of the financial concerns for David Price, and I can understand that. So I went back and looked at the Nick Punto trade (I know Mark’s favorite subject); a previous time when the Dodgers assumed a huge financial obligation for a perceived benefit. I pulled the below article:
One of the lines that caught my eye was when the writer was talking about Ben Cherington, he penned the following:
“For all of his predecessor Theo Epstein’s successes, he was always much better at trades than big free agent signings.”
That sounds very much like our very own AF. Theo continues to make some bad FA signings. While his signing of Jon Lester was spot on, Theo had an advantage because Lester was a long time member of his Red Sox teams. Ben Zobrist was also a good FA signing. But Heyward, Morrow, Kimbrel, Darvish, Chatwood???
In 2012, the Dodgers wanted Adrian Gonzalez and were willing to take on his mammoth contract as well as the gargantuan contracts for Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett to get AGon. Financially (contract wise), it was not a stellar transaction. But regardless of what the article purports, one of the clear reasons the Dodgers wanted Adrian Gonzalez was because of the burgeoning Latino population the owners wanted to tap into with a huuuuuge Hispanic star. AGon helped bring them back. In 2011, the attendance was below 3MM for the first time since 2000. In 2013, Gonzalez (and Hanley Ramirez) first full year with LAD, the Dodgers attendance topped 3.74MM. I would say from a business standpoint, the Dodgers became relevant again. The fans have not left, with the 2019 attendance a slight tick below 4MM (3.974MM).
Fast forward to 2020. The Dodgers have a chance to get Mookie Betts, but one of the provisions is reportedly that they need to also acquire David Price, and his three years of a bloated contract. The ownership is again facing a dilemma where their choice is to perhaps stay status quo (a strategy that has not yet worked), or go bold and pick up one year of Betts and bring along Price as part of the acquisition. This time the financial obligation is a lot less (almost half). The Dodgers ownership were not shy of walking away from still large remaining contract amounts by DFA Carl Crawford with 1.5 years remaining, and in essence paying for most of Agon’s final year salary with the cash considerations going to Atlanta where he was released per his request for agreeing to the trade.
AF knows Price, and I believe he would thrive in an environment he felt more comfortable, and maybe LA (with AF) is that place. We know he does not like Boston.
The prospect return to Boston for Betts/Price will be reduced depending on the total cash difference. Include AJ Pollock and that should be enough of a cash differential, and the prospects will still not need to be elite, but could be either Strip/Maeda and one 7-10 prospect, a top 20, and a lottery ticket. Dodgers get one year of Mookie to patrol RF and to wear a Dodger uni in the 2020 All Star Game at Dodger Stadium (along side AS Cody Bellinger). Maybe Mookie will take to the Hollywood lifestyle and he will re-sign. Price can at least work as a #5 and then move to the bullpen where he was very effective in 2018 WS.
Trading for Betts/Price will cost $$$ (which the Dodgers can afford), but not elite prospects, which the Dodgers do not want to spend. Many of the same people who are criticizing the ownership for not signing $250MM to $350MM FA, are complaining that Price’s 3 years at $31MM is too onerous. Never mind that the $31MM becomes $19MM with the loss of AJ Pollock.
Now do I expect AF to do this. NOOOOOO! I fully expect AF to wait until the trade deadline and then try to get a top line starter and/or RH bat with a comparable cost to the Machado and Darvish trades. Who that top of the rotation starter or RH bat will be and what team would be willing to trade with AF and his down graded prospects is anyone’s guess.
Rudybyrd linked a very good LA Times interview by Bill Plaschke with Stan Kasten. I am not a big Plaschke fan, mostly because of his hate of USC, but I thought he did a good job with some good questions and good follow up questions. After reading the column…Stan Kasten doth protest too much, methinks.
Of course Scott Boras used LAD to drive up the price for Gerrit Cole. Why is that any kind of surprise, and AF did make a great offer. I totally discount the Bryce Harper offer, as that was never realistic. IMO, that was all show. I only hope that AF reads Boras better when it comes to Seager, Belli, and Urias.
When asked about the reported MLB payroll mandate for the Dodgers, I do believe he was closer to becoming more forthright when it came to the “mandate” to get the payroll below the CBT in 2018. His response…“Two years ago, it was important, even though it was never a mandate. Last year was less important. This year, there’s no real need for that.” I think MLB chose not to use the word mandate, but the meaning was very apparent, and their actions gave credence to the “mandate”.
I will believe his assertion that he thinks that AF will be beyond the CBT threshold by the time the post-season starts, when it actually happens. I like Blake Treinen, but he is an unknown. If dollars weren’t as critical as Kasten leads us to believe, and realizing that one of the biggest weaknesses the Dodgers have (and perhaps THE biggest weakness), why didn’t they go 3 years $42MM or $45MM for Will Smith? I know Mark does not trust the consistency of relievers, but Will Smith is far more projectable than Blake Treinen. And do not bring up the dollars disparity, because Kasten told us that contract amounts are not a deterrent to signing talent. I think the ownership group would be happier being a current $37MM below the CBT than $10MM above it. I think they will approach the threshold, but not exceed it. I would not be surprised at all if they ended up somewhere between $190MM and $200MM. Acquiring Mookie Betts will mitigate all of those beliefs. Clevinger will take prospects not $$$. Same with Rodriguez. And AF is not going to bend here when it comes to Lux and May. Others are more available, but Cleveland and Boston may not be interested. Cleveland has made it clear they want Lux in any deal, so until they come off that demand, there is no chance for a Clevinger.
At least have a backup plan. Sign a low level back of the rotation starter for a one year pillow contract. Think Taijuan Walker or Alex Wood. I would not expect much out of either of them, but they both could eat up some innings for Urias/May/Strip/Gonsolin (or whoever becomes the primary #4/#5) and they may be useful relievers in the post-season. Or they may be busts for the one year.
I think fans will tolerate the Treinen or Wood or Walker type deals (even Kazmir, McCarthy, & Anderson), if AF (Kasten) also went out of his comfort zone to trade for a Mookie Betts, or another elite difference maker. Mookie is not going to take a Gavin Lux or Dustin May, regardless of what Red Sox fans think. If they do, walk away just as he is doing with Cleveland.
I do agree with Kasten that talent alone will guarantee a championship, especially expensive talent. The Dodgers were the most talented team in 2017 and should have won even with the cheating by the Astros, if their stars came through. Blame Doc, blame the players, but the players were there in 2017 and 2019 to win it all. They just did not perform. Maybe 2020 will be the year with Mookie making the final WS catch to win it all. And maybe Mookie will embrace the Hollywood lifestyle and want to end his career with LAD.
Discussion (72)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I think it’s setting up for a scenario similar to Manny Machado with Mookie Betts. I guess we could make it happen now if we agree to take on Price, but I suspect AF would rather part with prospects than take on Price’s remaining money.
I think the Red Sox wait until the deadline to finally deal Betts, partly to see how if they’re still in contention and partly because they’re insistent on pairing Betts with Price. By the deadline – provided they’re not a serious contender – they lose some nerve and become a little more agreeable. I think the Machado deal gives a rough template of what it will ultimately cost, so probably one of our blue chippers or maybe two top 10 guys. I’d probably be okay with that if we feel he’ll give us a shot at re-signing him. I love the player and he’d look great in blue.
Molly Knight has a new article in The Athletic. An excerpt:
“The Yankees cannot simply pencil themselves into the playoffs with the roster they have right now, as the Dodgers believe they can. Consider this quote from Kasten: “The team we have now is not going to be the team we have to start the postseason.” It’s bold to just assume the Dodgers can walk into October with the dudes they have currently, considering four other division teams exist and the Dodgers are one Walker Buehler elbow death away from having a serious problem in their rotation, but the NL West is so bad that the Dodgers don’t even stress about fielding their best team until the trade deadline. Which is wild. It’s also a big part of why fans are so frustrated.
“There is one huge caveat, however. Kasten said the Dodgers remain focused on adding superstars and offered his prediction that the team’s salary will pass the Competitive Balance Tax at some point this year. The CBT threshold is $208 million. According to longtime Dodgers payroll guru Eric Stephen of SB Nation, the current roster projects to cost around $165 million. That leaves $43 million for who exactly?”
I seriously doubt that the Red Sox, who want to win this year, will trade their best player for salary relief. It doesn’t make sense. I don’t expect to see Mookie Betts in Blue, if at all, until 2021 at the earliest.
I am no David Price fan, especially at a cost of $31 MM/year, although if the Sox took salary back it wouldn’t be so bad maybe, but Price’s best days are behind him and he isn’t the additional rotation piece that they need.
The question isn’t – is it worth one year of Mookie for 3 years of Price? The actual question is what makes you think that the Bosox are willing to let Mookie go if they in fact want to try to win this year?
Thanks for the link to that minor league chat, guys! Great to know the machine will keep on churning!
Lots of great info on our youngsters. Thx Horse Dodger!
Kyle Glaser Dodger prospect chat:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1578328625
Lots of great info
Thanks SoCalBum. At one time I thought he might make it up to the big league club. Wish him luck.
I am probably behind the times, but, can anyone tell me what happened to Stetson Allie?
https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1578328625
Pretty much.
I’d prefer Lindor/Clevinger and I would be willing to include Lux in that deal. I prefer not to include May but if Cleveland were willing (and we don’t know what they’re asking for other than Lux) I would be willing to give up Lux, May and Ruiz like So CalBum suggested. I would first however counter with a package of Maeda, Ruiz, Lux, Rios and one of Kike/Taylor. I’d throw in Garlic or Pederson if that would get the deal done. Personally, I think the Dodgers should go all out and get Clevinger/Lindor then go get Betts/Price as well.
Angels supposedly inquiring about Clevinger. Hard to see them getting that done without including Adell. Love to know what Indians would want for Clevinger from us. Not Lux but everyone else would be on the table for me
Excellent article, AC!
Agree that Dodgers should pursue either Walker or Wood as a 1 year pillow contract. Both have shown ability to be quality MLB starters and offer low risk bounceback potential. This signing will provide some starting pitching depth, and allow AF some flexibility to wait until the trade deadline if necessary before making Betts, Lindor or Bryant trade.
If they make Betts/Price trade, the Dodgers will be taking on $125 million in contract commitments, primarily for one year of Betts. While Boston would likely have to pay part of Price’s contract for the next three years, the Dodgers should not give one of their top 6 prospects in a Betts/Price trade. And I would prefer to retain Maeda and Stripling as both have been solid starting pitchers at reasonable cost.
I would propose the following package for Betts/Price:
Pollock or Joc
Rios
Wong
Either White, Santana, or Grove
Of course, the return to Boston will vary based on their player preferences, and based on how much of Price’s contract they subsidize. But the primary purpose of the trade is Dodgers using cash and CBT space for one year of Betts.
Gotta love this stuff. Interesting comparison with the 2012 trade with one “slight” difference, the Dodgers were desperate to make something big happen in 2012, to officially proclaim We’re Not Frank McCourt. Oh, yah, we’re also getting ready to make a massive TV deal that will shake the industry. We need to refocus LA on the Dodgers. The best way to do that? Nothing says it better than a foundation rocking trade of epic proportions. The money alone is staggering. First Guggenheim pays $2.1 billion for the team and now they absorb close to $300 million in contracts.
Who the hell is Guggenheim? What are they doing? This wasn’t just analyzed within the MLB, but by economists and business analysts. They officially had LA’s attention and the rest of the country as well. It was all part of the plan because the new owners weren’t looking at the Dodgers as just a baseball franchise. They had a different vision.
That brings us to this moment in time. This is not a desperate situation. Whether you like it or not, this is not 2012. This is a team that won 106 games. They’ve won seven straight NL West titles . They’ve been to two World Series in the past three years. They were a couple outs away from beating the eventual champion. They should have won in 2017. They had young stars, a great farm system with more impact players coming. So, yah, desperate they’re not. They have money to spend, but it takes two to make a deal.
Look, I get the World Series angst, a series of What Were You Thinking Moments? Peter O’Malley not wanting to increase payroll in the 90s, believing that only big corporations could be successful in the new era. The bad trades: Martinez, Wetteland, Piazza, Konerko and not re-signing Beltre. Changes in ownership from O’Malley to Fox to McCourt.
I believe we’ve reached critical stage, more a sense than anything else. But the Dodgers aren’t desperate. They will make calculated decisions, which focus on the present, but with an eye on the future. Stan Kasten said as much. If you want to understand the Dodgers and the thinking, listen carefully because they are telling you what’s coming. There was a reason he tossed in names like Hudson and Pearce, the 2018 WS MVP. Sometimes, it’s the little moves that are actually difference makers.
Now, this is the LA Dodgers and not the Atlanta Braves, ownership understands that. Stars are cool. But that doesn’t mean they will jump off the cliff in a desperate attempt to win a World Series or make something happen. Remember Kasten said they want to be successful over the long term.
So, how do they spend the money they have? That is the question. Trade? Betts and Price? Price is certainly available, but is Betts? Only if the Red Sox are desperate. David Vassegh says his sources in Boston say Betts isn’t being traded.
How about Lindor? Or Clevinger? The Angels were talking to the Indians about the pitcher. The discussion immediately center on Jo Adell, the team’s top prospect. End of discussion, even though the Angels are indeed desperate when it comes to pitching.
Why not let the market play out? Perhaps the Dodgers are doing just that, not wanting to overpay. Probably not what you want to hear, but no doubt reality.
There are few things you count on in life, other than Mark wanting to trade AJ Pollock or sign Castellanos, but the Dodgers will again win the NL West and enter the playoffs with a good chance to win a World Series. They will no doubt make a move or two, perhaps this week or next, but definitely at the July trade deadline.
Remember one of the best trades the Dodgers never made included a young pitcher with an unusual first name, Orel.
The two problems are, managing to sign Betts long-term, and then Price. I have never been a Price fan, though obviously he had the one Cy Young year, and then was great in the World Series against us. Last year, he once again was erratic. You watch him pitch, he looks like he has it all, but he is inconsistent. I don’t think he’s worth paying all that money to for three years. Of course, the Dodgers are preternaturally afraid of paying out for any long-term deal, but I think that they need to add a pitcher, and not Alex Wood, who people seem to forget was not effective at all in his last season here, and was no loss when traded.
Betts is really good, a game-changer. But why would we pick up Price for three years just to have Betts for one? I suppose that Betts, like almost all players, wants to test the free agent market. Maybe the Yankees will sign him for $400 million, and then we can gloat that they overpaid. If we could possibly sign Betts long-term, I would absolutely give up major prospects. If it is unlikely, and we’d only have him for the year, I would not do it.
As to the top relievers whom we kept passing on, it is either cheapness or arrogance. Kasten insists that we are not hamstrung by payroll concerns, but it certainly has looked like it. All sorts of other teams have paid for free agents, but we have not. It is like we are competing on different terrain, maybe baseball is too expensive for the Dodgers owners, though they scoff at that. Maybe some of it is Friedman being afraid to take a risk, he does not take many. We signed Treinen for one year, no risk there. We will rent players at the trade deadline. We are depending on young talent and untested prospects to fill the roles that FAs or veterans with long-term contracts fill on other teams.
In sum, I wanted the Dodgers to outbid the Yankees for Cole. I wanted us to get Clevenger if we could not land Cole. I wanted us to substantially upgrade what was an insipid bullpen last year, one which does not have a current quality closer. I want us to have a stronger pitching staff than Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda. But we have done none of those things. Now we may finally make a splash move which may not be idea. On the other hand, it does me and other Dodgers fans no good at all to see the owners save $40 million on payroll, so I guess they might as well use it at some point. I don’t think that this proposed trade will make us better than the Yankees, though it will make it more likely that we will win the NL pennant. And if Betts leaves then, we have wasted a lot of money on Price, and that will make the ownership less likely to do anything to substantially upgrade the roster in the next offseason, though apparently there is not going to be much in the FA market to help us. So our current options are limited, probably to this deal, or stick with the young players indefinitely.
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MLB.Radio was saying this if the Dodgers wanted Clevinger AND Lindor, it will take Lux, May, and Ruiz and Steve Phillips said he would do that deal if he were the Dodgers, but said that Cleveland would not do it. It’s tempting…
They could still trade Pederson and get another reliever… like to St. Louis for Martinez!
Playing devil’s advocate, if I am Boston I do not want Pollock who is limited defensively to LF, and is injury prone. I will accept Kenta Maeda, but I want someone who can play all three OF spots, and preferably some infield – either Kiké Hernandez, or Chris Taylor. I know I am not getting Lux, or May, and not likely Keibert Ruiz in the trade, so I want several ready now prospects: I need a LH hitting first baseman, preferably someone who can also play some OF, so Edwin Rios, or Matt Beaty is acceptable. I also need a close to ready prospect for second base and can play SS to rest Bogaerts on occasion; Omar Estevez. And, I want a young catcher not named Ruiz, or Cartaya – so will take Connor Wong. Maeda, Hernandez, Rios, Estevez, and Wong — and you get Price and Betts.
I think a fair trade with Boston would be Price, Betts, and both contracts for A J Pollock and Maeda. If Boston agrees,good, if not say thank you and walk away.
I would be willing to trade Pollock, Maeda or Chicken Strip (RedSox choice), Busch, and Rios for Betts and Price.
Would Betts or Bellinger play CF?
If that happens and Verdugo is healthy, Joc would be traded.