I was going to discus the State of the Pitching, but now I am going to wait until next week when we have a better idea what is happening with one Clayton Kershaw. That can change everything. Also, what follows is something that I think needs to be discussed.
As most of you know, the Dodgers won the World Series in 1988 as heavy underdogs, and then did not again even sniff the World Series until 29 years later. I think some fans believe that Andrew Friedman was hired as the President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers in 1989 and this World Series drought has all been his fault, However, he was actually hired in the Winter of 2014, and 2015 was his first season. Before his first season, through free agency or trades, the Dodgers parted ways with shortstop Hanley Ramírez, outfielder Matt Kemp, second baseman Dee Gordon, and pitchers Brian Wilson and Dan Haren. However, they bolstered their farm system and added key players such as catcher Yasmani Grandal, infielders Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins, as well as pitchers Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger.
Friedman helped lead the Dodgers to their third straight National League West division title in 2015, but the team fell to the New York Mets in the National League Division Series (NLDS), 3–2. After the 2015 season, MLB penalized the Dodgers with a record $43 million luxury tax after determining their payroll was nearly $300 million, also an all-time record. For the record, Friedman inherited most of that payroll.
In 2016, Friedman cut the payroll to less than $250 million and the Dodgers advanced to the NLCS. In 2017, Friedman again cut payroll to $241 million and took the team to the World Series, where they lost in 7 games to the Astros. Finally, this past season, Andrew Friedman was able to get under the Luxury Tax as was mandated by team ownership and he still saw the team get to the World Series.. and lose to a better team. The team payroll in 2018 was reduced to $187 million. That resets the luxury tax penalty. So, just to be clear, Friedman cut the payroll of the Dodgers from almost $300 million to $187 million while delivering the best record in baseball during his tenure and taking the team to two consecutative World Series! But not only is that not enough for some fans… they believe he should be fired!
While all of this was going on, Friedman rebuilt the front office with a plethora of old-school baseball guys, hired a team of statisticians, re-assembled a minor league training staff and built the struggling and emancipated Farm System into one of the top systems in baseball. He didn’t do it like the Cubs or the Astros by tanking for several years and hoarding draft picks. He built the team while winning the NL West every year and going to the playoffs and World Series. And… yes, they lost two straight World Series! So Friedman should be fired? Are you crazy?
The Dodger organization is the best it has been in 30 years! THIRY FREAKING YEARS! Now, I was on record that when FAZ was hired, I thought they should have “blown up” the team… traded away everyone they could and stockpile draft picks, but Stan Kasten told Friedman that he had to rebuild while remaining competative. What Friedman was asked to do was like boxing with one hand behind his back. But he did it. He built a damn good team and a damn good farm system… the only problem was that he built the second best team two years in a row.
Some of you want the Dodgers to fire him and hire a “baseball guy”. Ned Colletti is a “baseball guy” and he is available. Thanks, but I’ll pass. As I said yesterday, Andrew Freidman is not perfect, but he’s pretty dang good! Here’s a quote from a Dodger fan:
FAZ is very weak in FA and trades for players. We should not expect them to trade for any major talent like Realmuto because that is not how they usually work. They are cheapskates and dumpster divers. They are a very imbalanced FO when it comes to procuring talent that is not walking wounded or used goods. Sure, every dog has its day and sometimes they get a little lucky, but their MO is cheap and cheerful.
It’s not just one person who believes that… lots of people say the same thing, but when FAZ took over the team they had the highest salary in baseball… by far… and a bunch of bad contracts from THE TRADE. FAZ had no money to spend. They had to get creative… and they did. Yeah, they signed Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, but they also refused to trade Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias and Joc Pederson and they acquired Chris Taylor and Max Muncy for a bag of balls. They also acquired Andrew Toles, Austin Barnes, Yasmani Grandal, Kenta Maeda, Scott Alexader, Alex Wood and re-signed Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner.
This is not the ending they envisioned, but they were limited in what they could do. It’s easy for us to say who they should have traded for, but we really have no clue what other teams demanded. Would they rather have traded for Zach Britton than Ryan Madson? Duuuuhhhh! But, what did the O’s want for him? We don’t know. What we do know is that FAZ did trade for the TOP PLAYER at the deadline (Manny Machado) and as Watford Dodger (Our UK Connection) explained, the Dodgers would not have made it to the World Series without him, even though he may have underperformed in many fans eyes.
Let’s get one thing straight: FAZ did not lose the World Series. FAZ got them there. I wish the Dodgers had won the World Series in 2017 ands 2018… but they didn’t. The fact that they got there tells you they had a chance only 3 teams in all of baseball had. The Red Sox were a VERY, VERY good team who had several players step up in the playoffs BIG TIME. Players like Steve Pearce (platoon player), Joe Kelly (4.39 regular Season ERA – 0.00 in World Series), Nate Eovaldi and David Price were unconscious. The Dodgers pitching and hitting collapsed during the Series. Is that FAZ’s fault? Remember they were playing a better team that was favored to win.
How were the Red Sox built? A lot of home-grown players and few trades and free agents. While the Yankees got all the ink for trading for Giancarlo Stanton and his $300 million contract, the Red Sox signed JD Martinez for about a third of that. Martinez may very well be the best bargain in baseball. Signing players to stupid big contrcats is not the path to winning. Allegedly, the Red Sox were ready to walk if Martinez did not sign the $110 million deal. That deal worked out pretty good. The David Price and Rick Porcello deals looked bad at times for a year or two, but the stars aligned for the 2018 World Series. I’m betting that the Dodgers future is brighter than that of the Red Sox.
FAZ Should Have Built a Better Bullpen
Yes, I agree. However, relievers are a fickle bunch. Joe Kelly was Scott Alexander during the regular season… actually he was worse than Alexander, but in the World Series he was Superman. Who knows… Alexander may be unhittable next year. That’s the nature of relief pitchers. I know this: If you throw out a relief pitcher after a bad season, you likely will regret it later. 2018 was the year the Dodgers had to get under the Luxury Tax. If I have to explain why, then you aren’t going to get it anyway!
Assuming that the Dodgers will not sign a player to an extended long-term contract, is based upon past practices that are no longer valid:
- The Dodgers got out from under the Luxury Tax;
- The Luxury Tax Threshold goes up to $206 million this year;
- The Dodgers have gotten rid of the bad contracts, except for Kemp (and this is his last year); and
- There are players on the market who will get some big $$$$ deals, but they are 26 or 27 years old – that’s a big difference from signing a 32 or 33 year-old to a long term deal!
Instead of bitching about FAZ, you should thank your lucky stars that they are running your favorite team. Past performance was based upon a unique set of circumstances that no longer exist. The financial constraints are gone, the bad contracts are gone and this is a new paradigm. Many of you think thew Dodgers will not sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper and you probably are one of the fans who do not believe they would trade for Manny Machado either.
I have no idea how FAZ values Manny or Bryce, but I believe they will be players for them. Many fans wanted FAZ to trade for Gioncarlo Stanton but his $300 million contract is a boat anchor. Quick: If you could have JD Martinez or Stanton who would you take? The Red Sox drew a line in the sand and got Martinez for $110 million. Again, signing big name free agents to long-term deals is usually not the path to success. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Jacob deGrom are three pitchers who will likely get big dollar deals, but all will be over 30 next year and how far out do you want to go? Again, that is generally not the path to success. Buying aging pitchers generally ends badly.
I thought, as did many others that David Price and Justin Verlander were done. The Astros have one more year with Verlander and that may end up ok, but Price is a pitcher I do not think will hold up – the Red Sox caught lightening in a bottle… and, make no mistake winning a World Series does take some luck, but it is what it is. I would not touch those pitchers, but I would consider Manny and/or Bryce… at the right price.
Many of the top baseball minds consider Manny Machado as the best free agent in 2018. He was somewhat disappointing as a Dodger with a .825 OPS… not bad, but not superstar caliber. He dipped even more in the post-season to a .672 OPS – very pederstrian. Was he pressing? Was the weight of a new contract messing with him? Was being on a bigger stage a factor? Yes, Yes and Yes! I would not let that stop me from going after Manny and I think FAZ would sign him… at the right price.
Did Manny’s antics in the playoffs hurt his value? I don’t think so. In fact, like lots of things, if you look beyond thge obvious, you might have a different opinion. For example, Manny’s stepping Jesus Aguilar’ s foot looks bad… until you get into the context. Dodger players had been complaining all series that Aguilar was keeping his foot on the base too long, but he wouldn’t do anything about it. Manny did something about it, and secretly earned his teammates respect. What the media perceives as a negative, may actually be a positive. The umpires knew about it, which may be part of the reason Manny wasn’t ejected from the game. It wasn’t a bush league play – it was a guy doing something for his team.
Manny’s tenure with the Dodgers was so-so, but at age 26, he will likely get better every year for the next few years… and he has a body that does not seem prone to breakdown. Unlike Bryce Harper, he is on the field everyday. I think the Dodgers will sign him… if it makes sense. I’d sooner give him $300 million than Stanton, but I would not give that to eiher player. It has been speculated that Machado and Harper might get $300 to $400 million, but it was also speculated that JD Martinez might get $200 million and he only got $110 million. I think FAZ will be in on Manny at the right price… and that price might be around $200 to $250 million. I see no way anyone gives him $300 to $400 million. Just my opinion.
I think you will see FAZ spend more on the bullpen than they have in the past because they will have more to spend. You will also likely see signings like Morrow, Blanton and Koehler as well… because it just makes sense, but the Dodgers have a boatload of possible relievers next season (I’ll talk about that next week) from the minors that they don’t need to make any dope-fiend moves.
Finally, I have heard a lot of talk about how bad Chris Taylor was in 2018 and while I would like to see him cut his strikeouts down by 10 – 15%, he really wasn’t horrible. Compare him to another CF that many would love to have, Ender Inciarte. I think CT3 can improve and at least be as effective as he was in 2017… maybe better. We will talk about it more in the offseason, but I believe that the Dodgers will make it a priority to cut down the teams’ strikeouts. FAZ is not nearly as stupid as some may think… in fact, we all should be very happy that Andrew Friedman is running the Dodgers.
2018 Stats
|
Ender Inciarte |
Chris Taylor | |
|
597 |
AB |
536 |
|
158 |
H |
136 |
|
27 |
2B |
35 |
|
10 |
HR |
17 |
|
86 |
SO |
178 |
|
49 |
BB |
55 |
|
.265 |
BA |
.254 |
| .325 | OB% |
.331 |
|
.705 |
OPS |
.775 |
Discussion (166)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Great write up Mark. It has been frustrating to listen to so many know-it-alls act like the front office is clueless. Glad to read a pointed reality check. The six straight NL West titles and threw two straight world series appearances while rebuilding the farm and getting under luxury tax threshold is really an amazing accomplishment. Always room to improve, of course, but to not be thankful for what we have as Dodger fans would be ridiculous.
3b coach Chris Woodward hired to be new Texas manager:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25161165/texas-rangers-hire-chris-woodward-new-manager
Martin maldonado?
Rumor I heard today. Take it as you wish (because I don’t know how to take it)
Yasmani Grandal’s wife left him for another woman (yes, woman) right before the NLCS.
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yes, it was from a friend’s friend’s spouse who works for the Dodgers. Like I said, take it as u wish. If it’s true, we’ll find out in the coming weeks, as truth always comes out. If it’s not, well, it sounds pretty insane as it its!
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Also, I heard it from a friend who, heard it from a friend who, heard it from another you been messin’ around………
Assuming ryu accepts:
1. Kershaw
2. Buehler
3. Ryu
4. Hill
5. Maeda
6. Urias
7. Stripling
8. Santana
9. Ferguson
10. Stewart
Where would Utley fit in on this deal, might he be considered a coach for the Dodgers
So if we are lucky enough to pick up a guy like Kluber… I wonder how Kersh reacts to being the #3 starter in the rotation?
Woodward to manage rangers. Congrats.
Interesting. Reports are that the Indians will make their veteran players available, including their starting pitchers. I wouldn’t mind Kluber in Blue.
Alden Gonzalez, ESPN.com:
“I don’t think I’ve ever covered an athlete who feels as genuine and deep a responsibility to live up to a contract as Clayton Kershaw. He expressed that here, when talking about why his extension is 3 years: “My main priority is to sign a deal I can be productive with. I would never want to sign anything that I didn’t think I could live up to. That’s part of the reason for this deal is I really believe that for three years I can be just as good as I have been. I’m not saying I can’t be good past that, but that’s as long as I was willing to commit to right now.””
There is no way in hell the DH comes to the NL for 2019! Stop!!!
I have a feeling Ryu will be back.
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Maeda and Wood could be traded.
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What could you get for Maeda, Wood, Puig, Pederson and Muncy?
Historically, platoons occur when players at that position are not good enough to play every day. Until we sign additional players who are good enough to play every day, the platoons will continue.
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Turner and Seager (Machado this year) are every day players. Puig plays mostly every day but … We tried to trade for any every day second baseman but got burned with first Forsythe and then Dozier. If Bellinger evolves from his sophomore slump he will play every day.
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Signing Harper would give us an every day outfielder. I would like to think Verdugo can become an every day player.
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We need an every day catcher.
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Right now Pederson, CT3, Hernandez, Freese, Kemp and Barnes are not every day players. Not sure what is up with Toles. It remains to be seen if Muncy can sustain his 2018 numbers. If so, he could be an every day player. DH if it comes or 2B/1B if necessary. At most positions bat trumps glove.
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If we want to be the NL powerhouse (we do!) and compete with the AL powerhouses (we do!) we need players who are good enough to play every day. We are out from under the luxury tax this year. I expect moves from the front office that will move us away from using platoons because are starters will be good enough to play every day.
I think faz has done an outstanding job for the Dodgers. I can’t say a great job because we have not won a World Series with faz in charge. They have put our team in position to get to the World Series 2 years in a row despite being financially handicapped by the (trade). The Dodgers are definitely moving in the right direction with an exciting future ahead. The Kershaw signing was an ok move. He is fantastic in the regular season and I guess if price can do what he did it’s not too late for Kershaw. I hope he is able to exercise his playoff demons for his and the Dodgers sake. Maybe his health can be improved which would improve his stuff. He is not a number 1 in my mind so move over for Buehler. I believe his contract will exceed his performance but I would love to be wrong. I like the freese signing. No way in hell would I have given grandal a qualifying offer unless they are 90% sure he won’t take it. Please no grandal I don’t care what the stats say he is the biggest choker of all time. Ryu I like but like every pitcher his injuries concern you. As far as Roberts he has had much success. Unlike most on this board his platoons really don’t bother me I think it is mostly a strength. Why would you ever bat joc against a lefty but he can be lethal against righties. It is his dumbass in game decisions, his nonchalant attitude, his arrogance at times, his lack of urgency and I could go on to no avail. He is almost like Kershaw in that we own the regular season but he shrinks in the biggest moments. Roberts needs to grow for the Dodgers to win a World Series. Most everyone knows that except probably him who tries to explain away every dumb… decision.
I am hoping Friedman gets it, because he said the cause of the World Series loss, was because of the offense.
Well because they have a track record (albeit under tax limitations) of how they do baseball, and the post WS press conference led one to believe they will continue down the swing and miss plate approach, and not change that approach, and their view of SP addressed from within the system.
If the Dodgers make a move for Harper (I am not against it), then I would move him to LF and trade Pederson , Puig and Toles. That should net a nice return.
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Lineup:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Harper LF
5. Realmuto C
6. Bellinger 1B
7. Taylor CF
8. Hernadez/Muncy 2B
One final thing:
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WE see opportunities for improvement, but if you expect FAZ to articulate what they plan to do, you are delusional. There will be attempts at preventing the same issues that plagued the team last year, but there will be no press release.
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I just am incredulous that some believe that FAZ is OK with everything.
… which is why I say Realmuto and Verdugo!
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If you plug in those two and get some improvemnet from Bellinger and Taylor..
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The add in a healthy Corey Seager…
If anyone thinks the offensive philosophy won’t evolve… well, I’ll just say: SILLY!
First – I am totally enthused about Kershaw’s return. A very reasonable way to bring him back and to have him for a not unreasonable term. He should be a Dodger for life and it looks like he may be.
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I am also pleased to have Freese back – he will be this year’s Chase Utley. And he can hit in the clutch (unlike most Dodgers).
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It made sense to make the qualifying offer to Grandal. It sounds like the Dodgers’ other catching prospects are a year or 2 off at least. I don’t seen Grandal accepting the QO and I really wonder if they bring him back for 3 or more seasons – I have real concerns that he has been on the bench for most of the last 2 World Series. If they can’t trust him in the biggest games then no matter how good he has played at times (and he has been very good at times) you have to wonder whether he should come back.
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I am much more surprised about Ryu’s QO. He pitched 80 very good innings this year. He was 5 – 9, 3.77 with a 4.74 FIP in 2017 and pitched 4 innings in 2016. He has a spotty injury history to be sure. He accumulated 2.2 WAR last year per Baseball Reference and 8.6 WAR in 5 seasons. In 2018, he was 22nd in the NL in pitching WAR.
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About the Braintrust – according to our host, it has, by itself, put the Dodgers in the Series 2 seasons in a row. The players signed or drafted by the ‘Trust’s predecessors don’t matter, I guess.
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Obviously, analytics are here to stay and should be. The question is really how to blend the conclusions reached by the nerds with those of the baseball guys to come up with real decisions about how the team should operate. In my view, the Braintrust over-emphasizes the numbers and has designed a style of play that is almost unwatchable. It’s not solely a matter of wins and losses (although that is an issue) – it’s baseball aesthetics. A game where nothing happens – the pitcher and catcher play catch and the hitter walks, Ks or hits a HR – not that interesting. Baseball is concerned that younger fans are tuning out – is there any wonder why? Baseball has so little action and it gets worse annually.
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The Dodgers had 1394 hits, 1436 Ks, 647 walks. More Ks than hits. They had 235 HR and 6358 plate appearances. This means that the “3 true outcomes” totaled 2318 out of 6358 PA, which is 36.5%. Almost unwatchable. Almost as bad as soccer!
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Mark emphasizes how smart and accomplished the Braintrust is. You can’t say that and assume that they aren’t OK with the way the offense played. The Ks are the byproduct of the offense that it designed. You can’t say that the ‘Trust desired bat-to-ball skills if it built the offense that it built
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I can see the Dodgers hitting even more HR, striking out even more, and hitting for an even lower average next season. It’s a matter of design. You will note that the Bosox hit differently with 2 strikes and 2 outs – the Dodgers just didn’t do that – most of them hit for the fences every time up. There are lessons that have to be learned.
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Reading excerpts of the interview given by Friedman and Zaidi, it looks like more of Tampa’s strategies are to follow. They are planning on training younger players to expect to have “openers” instead of starters, view starters as “bulk” pitchers (their words), more platoons and matchups (they believe that’s how the Dodgers won the pennant) – in other words, more nerd-oriented baseball, more ugly baseball. This won’t be much fun to watch. A parade of relief pitchers, platooned hitters (and pinch-hitters), lots of Ks and HRs.
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We will continue to have a parade of AAAA starters, injured guys and rookies in and out of the bullpen every year as the Dodgers struggle to find the 8 guys who might belong there.
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To recap – the Dodgers had a miraculous season last year (except for a horrible September). This year – they were awful to watch – one of the worst “clutch” teams ever who K’d, HR’d and BB’d at high levels but couldn’t knock in a run from 3rd base with less than 2 outs. An endless torrent of situational relievers who managed to have the 2nd most blown saves in baseball even with the advantage of matchups. A team who’s Pythagorean numbers suggested that they should have won 102 games but who won only 92 due to the inability to perform in the clutch.
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They have to operate differently next year but probably won’t.
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By the way – I doubt seriously they sign someone like Harper next year, but I don’t really think that they should anyway. Friedman says that he likes the team that he has and that the Dodgers will compete next year. I agree that they will be competitive even if the team only nibbles around the margins. But it is a team that should revamp its approach and its personnel.
Some predictions:
Grandal declines the q.o. and we sign a FA catcher to a two-year deal.
Ryu accepts the q.o. and pitches in our rotation all year.
Kershaw wins a ring during his new contract.
A good day for the dodgers. They are operating from a position of strength. I hope they’re talking to all class of free agent and discussing deals teams rich and poor. I think we’ll see more turnover than usual. The rotation and outfield could use some paring.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html
Dodgers also extend qualifying offer to Ryu
Dodgers extend the Qualifying Offer to Grandal
Contracts like that still just blow my mind. That is, players get paid for what they have done. However, if one has to be signed, Clayton is a good choice. He is a fine young man, a good family man, charitable and represents the team well. He wants to be a Dodger and I expect this will be his last contact. He will retire as a Dodger. He may well have a no trade clause.
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I expect his first and foremost goal is to help bring a ring to LA. His inability to do so thus far must weigh heavily on him. He no doubt will no longer be a No.1 as we have witnessed his slow regression. Maybe he does reinvent himself as he is definitely team oriented and wants to do well. Being second behind Walker Buehler would not be so bad. It may well be beneficial to him. Go Clayton.
Good post Mark. I, for one, am extremely grateful that we have FAZ in our front offices. Do they swing and miss occasionally? Absolutely. But then, so do Epstein/Hoyer, Cashman, Chernoff and Luhnow. More often than not, however, they get it right and hit the ball on the screws. Moreover, the fact that FAZ was able to keep the Dodgers very competitive while subtracting 100 million from the payroll is no small feat. The other GMs mentioned had the luxury of tanking for several years so they could restock their system with top draft choices. Making draft selections in the top 10 picks is significantly easier than making the right selection at #25. Even then, these GMs have swung and missed badly (say hello, Mark Appel and Hayden Simpson).
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Dave Roberts also makes mistakes. As do Madden, Hinch, Francona, Cora, and Boone. Baseball is one of the more difficult and unpredictable games to play. “Failure” is more apt to happen than “success.” Average 3 hits out every 10 at-bats for and entire season and you might soon be a millionaire. Lead your team to 100 wins, it is going to be coupled with 62 losses. Friedman had the foresight to hire Madden at TB. FAZ hired Roberts, when everyone assumed the job would be handed to Kapler. They obviously saw something in Roberts they really liked. I think they are going to hitch their ponies to his wagon for the foreseeable future. He hasn’t proven them wrong. As to all the people that bitch and moan that Roberts is merely a puppet that only does what he’s told by FAZ, please lay out what actual evidence you have to support that. I look forward to him managing the team for several more years, and while I may cuss at the TV now and again when he makes a decision that I don’t agree with, I rest in the fact that he has much more information available to him than I do sitting in my recliner with the remote in my right hand.
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Val9000 – your Grandal joke was priceless! By the way, I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance that Grandal accepts the QO.
I don’t find it strange that the Dodgers saved a million on Freese. When they picked up Forsythe’s option it was for player they expected to be playing regularly at 2B. Don’t think they thought he wasn’t going to measure up. In the case of Freese, they’re probably thinking of him as just a bench piece, and occasional fill-in.
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I still would like to see Machado come back. But I am in agreement with Mark that is has to be at a reasonable price. The Dodgers could use his right handed hitting bat.
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I’d also like to have Harper as well. Again, money and years probably matter, but I’m perfectly certain that Dodgers brass can do the math, and figure out what makes sense.
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I don’t know if the Dodgers would sign both players, but if they did it would create lots of flexibility for other deals.
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Just popped up on my phone that Kershaw signed 3-year extension for $93 million, with no opt-outs.
The Dodgers have struck a new deal with star lefty Clayton Kershaw, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’s a three-year, $93MM pact, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). There are no opt-outs in the pact, Brown adds in another tweet, but Kershaw can boost his earnings through bonuses.
I think the “incentives” portion should favor the Dodgers. Like, if you suck in October, you owe us some money back
Deal done. 3 years, 93mil plus incentives (like showing up in october)
Sounds like they just added a year at the current rate.
As of last night, #Dodgers and Kershaw were talking about adding an additional year to his remaining two years, $65M, likely bringing total over three years to more than $90M but less than $100M, a source says. Final terms might be different. @JeffPassan reporting deal is close.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 2, 2018
From LA DodgerTalk Trade Rumors:
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The Dodgers soft tossed a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal but he dropped it. He then lost it under the table and still cannot find it.
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This story is still developing… stay tuned to LA DodgerTalk for more updates.
Fangraphs is reporting we have A LOT of money to spend on free agency this off-season. I don’t understand why so many here are against signing Bryce Harper. If it character that’s one thing but if it’s anything else I just don’t get it. Offense was the number #1 problem in the World Series and he’s a great offensive player. He wouldn’t be blocking anyone because Kemp & Puig come off the books after this coming season, Joc & Taylor are platoon types, and Bellinger is a first baseman by trade and plays CF which wouldn’t impact Bryce at all. Toles is nobody to change our plans around and Verdugo looks certain to get a long look regardless of who else we sign.
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Our organization is loaded. We have arms coming up. We have catchers in the pipeline. We have Lux nearly ready to make his mark. We have Seager coming back. We have three straight NLCS appearances and two straightpennants. What’s missing is the knockout punch. I think the cost of free agent pitchers is exorbitant; we’re about to recommit to Kershaw instead of wading in. In my opinion, Buehler is more likely to be our next great pitcher than anyone else. Can you even imagine how much DeGrom would cost to acquire?
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It’s time to pony up. We have the structure in place to support it. Just play around with the lineup like I did yesterday. Bat Harper leadoff or 2nd; move Turner to clean-up. Let Bellinger study Bryce’s mechanics. He really is that good.
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I personally am not only in favor of targeting him; I think it’s close to mandatory that we make an effort. Remember Stanton? Maybe we passed him up for exactly this reason. Machado proved this city is eager for a superstar. We have a great roster but we might be lacking that one guy. Give him all the personality tests you want but at the end of the day I would happy because I could dream on an MVP season, 50 HR, 10 Win WAR, a feisty dugout presence, and a guy that Roberts could bring the best out of.
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10 years $350 mil. Player opt out after 4 years. Sign on the line that is dotted.
What do you guys think of the
Indians making Kluber, Carrasco and the other OG’s available? Should the blue try and get Kluber?
Anyone find it strange that the Dodgers worked so hard to save $1 million on Freese’s deal?
Mark, is there any way to correct what happens to my post? I posted this morning and it has not surfaced. I have tried to change my ID several times and nothing.
My predictions (as useless as they may be)
1) Kersh current K is tossed, and he resigns for 5/135
2) Roberts is given a 3 year deal
3) Gradal is extended the QO, and he declines and leaves
4) Ryu is extended the QO, but we wind up resigning him for 3 years (a move I LOVE)
I think Ryu is fully healthy and back. And as a 4 of 5, he is absolutely dominant. This also gives us tons of trade bait (Wood, Strip, Ferguson, Maeda, May/White, etc)
Olney on the Indians:
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Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.
What do you think? Trade max Muncy (no dh in NL) for Whit Merrifield. Merrifield fills a position of need at 2b and leadoff, hits both LHers & RHers. Muncy would be a DH. We could be trading high (or not) with Muncy.
Rosenthal on the Grandal QO:
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The Dodgers’ rationale for giving Grandal qualifying offer is that he would help bridge the gap to their two top catching prospects, Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz. Expectation is team will give Ryu a qualifying offer as well. Grandal offer first reported by @Joelsherman1.
Independent of any other moves we are considering, offering Grandal the Q.O. is an easy Yes. If he accepts, we have our starting catcher for 2019 and transitioning into the Smith/Ruiz era. If he declines–which is likely–we pocket the draft pick.
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Ryu is a bit trickier because I think there is a much greater chance he accepts and we’re on the hook for an $17 mil one year deal for a starter in a rotation that is already near full (Kershaw?/Buehler/Wood/Maeda/Stripling/Urias/Santana/Ferguson). Assuming we don’t like him at that price, he could accept and hamstring us a bit. I still say the upside to getting the draft pick outweighs the risk.
The Indians will not be giving any QO to Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, or Michael Brantley. The Dodgers will have discussions with the agents of all three, but I do not see any of them signing.
The overall job by FAZ is good. I do not think they should be fired. However, they are smart people and they need to change. If they do not look back on the last two years and figure out what they did wrong, then we are going to repeat the same mistakes. They have to look at the bull pen differently. The bull pen needs to be a strength and not a weakness. They did nothing to help the bull pen in July. You need starters that play every day. You cannot get into a good rhythm by playing half the games. They need to value contact hitters more. They need to value steals more. They need to value doing the little things more to win games. They need to value less the HR’s.
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Now Doc. I do not get the after game press conferences. However, some of you have said Doc does not take ownership when he makes a mistake. That bothers me. You do not learn if you do not analyze your decisions after a win or a loss. If Doc thinks he did not make a bad decision in the last two WS, then we are headed for trouble. Also Doc, on my opinion, values some players more than others. In other words he has favorites. He has to look and see wth his own two eyes what is in front of him. Make a decision on what is actually happening.
With respect to Manny…I still do not believe the Dodgers will sign him unless they are convinced that Corey will never be able to play SS again. I do get the impression that some on this site and others will be just fine with moving Seager just to make room for Machado, including both of my sons. I am not in that camp. Yes this is an emotional response for me. If Seager is willing to move to 2nd, who am I to argue with him. But his future earnings will take a huge hit if he moves, and I do not think Scott Boras will be okay with that. Therefore I would predict that if the Dodgers sign Manny to play SS, Seager will leave as a FA after the 2021 season as a 28 year old. Some have already said, then so be it.
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As an aside, my son still has contacts within ML and maybe just maybe within the Dodgers. He has heard that Manny is a very well respected teammate. He loved his Dodger teammates and it was reciprocated. I too heard about the Aguilar issue, and what Mark stated was exactly what happened. Sometimes it is best not to come to any immediate conclusions, and just wait for ALL of the facts to surface.
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Manny is going to have to get a better contract than Robinson Cano, which will push the envelope well north of $250MM. Cano got a 10 year $240MM contract beginning his 31 year old season. Manny is not going to accept anything less than $250MM. I still think he ends up in Philly.
The last from Mlb Trade Rumors:
Nov. 2: With the deadline now just over three hours away, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that both sides are “optimistic” about reaching a new agreement. As Rosenthal points out, an extension prior to 4pm ET isn’t required
Kershaw to remain in L.A. into 2019 and beyond. Even after what seems to be a surefire opt-out, he could continue negotiating with the Dodgers, although other teams would then formally be allowed to pursue Kershaw as well
I PREFER MACHADO OVER HARPER. BUT OK IF IT IS NOT HAPPEN. AS FUN I DONT CARE ABOUT the Dodgers money I just want a good team that inspires me …I liked so much the 2015 DODGERS (with Crawford, Hanley, gonzalez kemp, turner etc) maybe very expensive but no with.my money y very funny…I like the 2018 team because they won but sometimes I find it boring
Well now I need to refocus my next post as this topic was exactly what I was going to write about. But you said it much more passionately than I was going to. While I applaud ALL that Andrew Friedman has accomplished, and it is exceptionally significant under less than ideal circumstances as you aptly discussed, I want to concentrate on a couple of areas that I may digress with the FAZ focus. I say FAZ because while I still believe that Friedman is the primary architect, I think Zaidi’s influences are also evident.
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I have been on record as an unapologetic FAZ supporter. But like all of us in life (and in our jobs), FAZ does make mistakes. However, for us to improve, we all need to grow from our mistakes. IMO their number one “mistake” is this apparent (at least to me) love for the all or nothing approach to offense. They seem mesmerized by the number of home runs the team has put up, and disregard the number of strikeouts, especially in critical game situations.
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I am not brain dead and do recognize that FAZ would prefer that there were less strikeouts, but at the same time they are also very accepting of them. If they were not, then there would be consequences for continuously striking out, especially with runners in scoring position.
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The Dodgers AA affiliate, Tulsa, led the Texas league in HR’s and K’s. The Drillers were led by DJ Peters who individually led the Texas League in HR’s, but also led the league in strikeouts, by a healthy margin…192 to 160. There were only two batters above 150 K’s in the Texas League. And yet no Driller came close to the number of PA’s that Peters had. But FAZ will point out that Tulsa did win their first Texas League Championship.
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Rancho Cucamonga led the California League in HR’s and K’s. Five of the top ten strikeouts in the California League were Dodger prospects at Rancho. And again, FAZ will point out that RC did win the California League Championship.
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It is difficult to question their logic when the Dodgers have won two consecutive pennants and their AA and A+ minor league affiliates won their respective championships using the HR and ignoring the strikeout. Therefore there is no apparent reason for the organizational philosophy to change. I think that is especially true for Zaidi, maybe not as much for Friedman. But I see no forthcoming change in philosophy as you may see. I hope I am wrong, but I do not think so.
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If FAZ valued bat to ball skills more than power, then Alex Verdugo would have been on the roster replacing Joc. I do not believe that Joc is better defensively than Alex, so what else could it have been.
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With respect to the CT3 and Ender Inciarte comparisons…I have been front and center for the last several years wanting FAZ to acquire Ender Inciarte. Nothing has changed. You selected Inciarte’s worst ML season to compare. Career comparison:
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Inciarte – .289/.337/.390/.727 – 162 game average K = 84
CT3 – .262/.331/.435/.766 – 162 game average K = 158
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Both just turned 28. As good defensively as CT3 is, Inciarte is a 2 time reigning GG CF, and is nominated for a third straight year. He is a finalist with Lorenzo Cain and Billy Hamilton.
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Inciarte is in the middle of a 5 year $30.525MM contract. He is due to earn $5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020, $8MM in 2021, with an option for 2022 at $9MM with a 1.025MM buyout. CT3 is entering his arbitration years in 2019, and will become a FA after the 2021 season.
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I have no reason to believe that CT3 will change his swing. He is not going back to that AAAA swing he used to have. My only hope is that he develops a better knowledge and recognition of the strike zone. And again, there is no reason for him to change. He was not held accountable for his strikeouts. He played in all five of the WS games and struck out 6 times in 18 plate appearances (33%).
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It was very fitting that the last 6 Dodger batters struck out in the WS. Joe Kelly and Chris Sale only had to be within the state of California with their pitches for the Dodger batters to swing.
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No consequences…no reason to change.
Who did say that Friedman must be fired???? Friedman has done a great job but no perfect o of courses. he failed in the strategy of preferring only hitters looking for home runs or no contacts and giving too much importance to the statistics and very little for the perceived. He must increases in this area.
From MLB Trade Rumors:
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The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.
The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.
Wow, great post Mark, good point on the Manny foot incident and our boy chrisT
Mark
I am with you about making to big of a deal over Manny not backing off when that first baseman kept his foot on the base, much longer then he should.
Because almost every first baseman you watch in the majors, gets their foot off the base as soon as they can, unless they are stretching for a bad throw.
But the announcers love to try to make the Dodgers the bad guys, anyway they can.
What Manny did against right hand pitching, is what would give me reservations on signing him, to a long multi year contract.
Warning: Drinking too much Dodger Kool-Aid can impair your rationale.
Thank you Mark for your well thought out analysis. It did help me get out of my post Series funk to realize that the near future is a lot more positive than I am giving the FO credit to fix. Given that, it makes it more fun to follow what they have planned over the next few months. Yes, they have made our team one of the best in baseball. Now let’s see what they have in store for us that will make us the best. I still think their in game management and home run or nothing approach needs some serious reevaluation. I sure hope that’s on their to-do-list as well. The FO is smart, they should be able to see what we’ve seen. Now what are they going to do about it. This is the fun part of it. Thank you Mark and all who have contributed to making this blog such an enjoyable read. Here’s to the Dodgers in 2019!
Joel Sherman saying Grandal will likely be offered Q.O.–sounds logical to me.
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If they are worried about Ryu accepting, I hope they have other plans for his money.
I was thrilled when Friedman signed with the Dodgers. I always wanted him and still think he is 100% the right man for the job. (I was also disappointed when Maddon didn’t come over with him, especially since we soon after gave up on Mattingly, who was only there because of Joe Torre . . .)
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I can’t wait for this offseason. Even though we will always be squeezing the margins [see: Freese contract], I also think we make a big splash or two. Our organization is in such good shape we can afford to. I’m serious about wanted Harper, btw. Give him an opt-out and it makes the overall commitment less permanent for the player.