It has been suggested by some that Craig Kimbrel is the solution to the Dodger’s bullpen woes. Just to be sure that I understand it, this is the Craig Kimbrel that Boston (who needed a closer) parted ways with and 28 other teams have passed on? No one wants him for a reason, but the Dodgers should sign him anyway with some silly “knee-jerk” reaction because he just happens to be available? Because the Dodgers “know better” than any of them? I think not! Signing Kimbrel smacks of desperation. There’s a reason every team in baseball has passed on him.
It is a fact that he Dodgers bullpen needs to get better – even Ray Charles can see that! But, please: No Dope-Fiend Moves. Currently, the Dodgers pitching staff is 3rd in team ERA, on their way to 2nd. However, they are 21st in bullpen ERA, and of course, we know you can’t win a World Series unless you have the best bullpen in baseball. Right? Well, that would be WRONG. Last year, Boston was 9th in bullpen ERA and in 2017, Houston was 17th, BUT the Bullpen was good when it counted. That happens to be the key.
In the Post-Season of 2018, the Dodgers pen had a 2.78 ERA while the Red Sox had a 2.71 ERA… in an identical number of innings. Was it the bullpen that won the Series? In 2017, the Dodgers bullpen had a 3.39 ERA while the Astros Bullpen ERA was 5.40 in an almost identical number of innings as well. The Cubs won the World Series in 2016 with the 7th best bullpen ERA. So saying we have to have the best bullpen is nonsense!
Your bullpen has to be the most opportunistic! You need to win 3-2 games and 10-9 games. You have to get hot when it counts. Joe Kelly has been very bad this year, but he was great in the World Series. Relief pitchers who were “lights out” in 2017 often got “lit up” in 2018. There is no “exact science” in picking bullpen arms. Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow were simply the product of “luck” and luck is where preparation meets opportunity.
The last two World Series Champs had something the Dodgers did not have (other than an Ace who was one): They had consistent offensive production and they had clutch hitting. The Dodgers have attempted to address that. This year, their OPS with RISP is better than 50 points higher than last year and they are striking out less. They are also averaging a run a game more than in 2018. That’s progress!
As much as I liked Yasmani Grandal, he was all-or-nothing and Friedman saw no need to keep him for such spotty production. Last March, Yasmani hit .333 and followed that up with.313 in April. Then he proceeded to hit .181 in May, .162 in June, .364 in July and .162 in August. Yet, his highs were higher than Joc’s and Joc’s lows were lower. That is what is maddening to me about Joc.
Joc beats Yasmani in OPS, but this is where I split from analytics. Averages are misleading. Put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water and “on average” the analytics say you are comfortable when you absolutely are in great pain! I am picking on Joc because he’s easy to pick on, but there are others on the Dodgers whom I can point to as a problem as well. I will list them by their “strikeout percentage:”
- Max Muncy – 31%
- Kike Hernandez – 29%
- Chris Taylor 29%
- David Freese – 28%
Joc strikes out 23% of the time, which is not that bad. The problem I have is that he can’t hit lefties. Oh, occasionally he will get a hit, but there is absolutely no evidence that he will ever master that art. Of all our position players, Joc is the most marketable and I think the Dodgers could parlay him into a couple of arms (maybe a 3 or 4-way deal) for the pen. It has been pointed out that Joc has bad luck with BAIP, but if you look at his hit charts you can see that he either can’t… or won’t hit balls the other way with any frequency.
Of more concern to me than the bullpen is the number of “true outcome players” the Dodgers have in the lineup. I think that has to be addressed. Kike’s strikeouts are WAY UP. Muncy was actually at 33% last year, so he is down a little. It’s still early, and CT3 and Kike are working with RVS and Company daily, trying to “breakthrough” but sometime in June, if this keeps up, you have to look elsewhere.
Even if no trades are made, I believe there are enough “in house” resources to fix the pen, and this is especially true if Joe Kelly can find his magic again. Can he? Will he? That’s a BIG question. Friedman is working the phones as we speak and while I would like to see help for the bullpen, I believe that fewer “true outcome” hitters will help the Dodgers immensely.
Cody Bellinger will play wherever Doc asks him to play, but in his career, he is hitting 100 points higher as a right fielder. What moron would ask him to switch? Having played both positions, I know that you have a “mental break” when you play RF because you are not involved in nearly as many plays. I can only guess, but Cody says he prefers RF over 1B… and maybe he does because of that mental aspect. At any rate, I would not ask him to move unless there is no other choice.
At this juncture, I would rather see Muncy at 2B than Kike. Platoon Freese and Beaty at 1B. I think Beaty is a hitter. Kike and/or CT3 have to sort this out because the Dodgers can’t afford to keep both. It’s not time to panic. There’s lots of time left and the Dodgers are the class of the NL, but Andrew Friedman is plotting… I guarantee it.
Minor League Report by DC
Player of the Day – Gavin Lux
The story of the day again is shortstop Gavin Lux with his second straight four-hit game. His batting average of .329 now trails only teammate Omar Estevez who is hitting .333. He leads the league in runs, home runs, slugging, total bases and OPS.
Great Lakes Loons 4 – Lancaster Lugnuts 9 (Toronto)
Nineteen-year-old Robinson Ortiz made his Loons Debut on Thursday. It was the first time the young left-hander had pitched above the Arizona League. The jump is significant for a just turned 19-year-old
but I expect the Dodgers wanted to get his season started to determine if he stays at that level or gets reassigned to the Ogden Raptors for their June 14th season opener. His first taste of A-ball did not go so well. In two innings and 55 pitches he gave up six hits, two walks and seven earned runs while striking out two. He did pick a runner off first base in Jon Rooney fashion.
Stephen Kolek, who was to piggyback with the 6’0”/180-pound Ortiz, pitched a nice six innings giving up two runs, one earned, on three hits, no walks and three strikeouts.
The Loons did score four runs, a first inning one on a Niko Hulsizer double off the top of the wall scoring Hunter Fuduccia who had walked. Three more runs came across in the top of the ninth on a Niko Hulsizer solo home run and two-run single by Jacob Amaya.
Offensively the Loons have been scorching of late but in the field they are freezing cold having made 15 errors in the four game set with the Lugnuts. The bats carried them to three wins in the series.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes – Visalia Rawhide (Arizona)
The Quakes double-header With Visalia was rained out making two straight rain out days in Rancho Cucamonga.
Tulsa Drillers 8 – Northwest Arkansas Naturals 3 (Kansas City)
J.D. Martin started for the Drillers and matched his previous high of seven innings giving up a lone run on four hits, one walk while striking out five. Yordy Cabrera finished up the final two innings allowing two additional runs by the Naturals.
Offensively the Drillers scored early and often.
- Jared Walker solo home run in the second inning.
- Angelo Mora triple in the third inning
- Chris Parmalee SF in the third inning
- Zach mcKinstry two-run double in the fourth inning
- Angelo Mora two-run single in the fourth inning
- GavinLux solo home run in the sixth inning
Lux (4), McKinstry (2) and Mora (3) all had multiple hit games.
OKC Dodgers 4 – New Orleans Cakes 12 (Miami)
The Dodgers pitching woes continue. Starter Dennis Santana gave up seven runs, five earned, in five innings. Louis Head matched Santana with five earned runs in two innings Joe Broussard did strand the two runners he inherited while Josh Sborz had a clean inning.
The Dodgers had seven hits, three by Will Smith and two by Daniel Castro.
Discussion (78)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Andre Jackson – – another pitching prospect to keep our eyes on. Today 6 shutout innings; 2 hits; 6ks. He’s been lights out lately. Sub 2 era – soon to be promoted to Rancho I suspect.
New from the who cares category: Mets sign Kemp.
Why was beaty removed from the game
The umpire is being tough on Buehler. Nice to see Barnes have a good game so far. I’m not worried about the catcher position being productive offensively.
Surprised Roberts would take Beaty out of the game so quickly.
And here I was yelling at Doc for starting Beaty and Freese over Joc and Verdugo against a righty! I’d love to know the anylitical behind that decision!
Excellent start. I expect this to be a game to be a W
I wonder when Pollock comes back if Joc can play some first base. I know last year he was taking some practice reps there.
You’ve got to be kidding trading Hill! He is a big game pitcher who might be our best playoff pitcher! He’s not going anywhere!
The Dodgers now use an Opener. It’s Beaty.
Fanning the flames on the Bellinger playing RF vs 1B debate.
From Baseball-Reference.com:
2019 Cody Bellinger Defensive Runs Saved in RF: 10
2019 Cody Bellinger Defensive Runs Saved at 1B: 1
Let Belli play right field. If stats aren’t your thing, use the eye test – e.g., that web gem where Belli stole a HR from Yellich. There was also that time Belli hosed Brandon Crawford attempting to go 1st to 3rd, changed the whole complexion of that inning. There are a bunch of other plays. Of course Belli plays a good 1B, but his impact is greater in RF.
Check it out: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01-field.shtml
I’ve read a couple articles that say the Dodgers outfield defense has been a huge improvement this year over last year – mostly because of Bellinger and also in good part due to Verdugo.
As far as the research I have done there are 3 pitchers on the Dodgers staff that are free agents after this season. Correct me if I am wrong. Ryu, Hill, Cingrani.
I think the Dodgers should try to re-sign Ryu before the trade deadline and if they are sucessful maybe the Dodgers should explore trading Hill and Cingrani along with Floro at the trade deadline for prospects. Depending on the pitching situation at that time.
Why Hill, Cingrani, Floro? Hill is 39 years old and prone to giving up home runs, I just don’t think Hill is worth re-signing. Cingrani has a career OPS of 729, that is average. Floro is only effective against right handed hitting, look at his splits this year and his career splits.
Who takes the place of Hill in the starting rotation? Stripling or Urias.
Again depending on the pitching situation at the trade deadline.
I would trade Kelly but nobody will take Kelly with that contract.
The thing that I find amusing is that the bullpen is an issue annually. We hope that somehow, it all gets sorted out by mid-season or certainly by the post-season. Last year the ‘pen’s weakness was revealed. This year, it is the one weakness in an otherwise very strong team.
This isn’t just guys on this Board – the baseball press has made the same observations.
The Dodgers need to figure out what they need to do to win in the post-season. I cringe when a reliever comes in – any reliever at this point. What do the Dodgers have to do to avoid that?
1 – Eliminate guys who can’t get it done. Right now, that’s Alexander, Kelly, Ferguson and many others. Alexander and Ferguson have options. I have no idea what they can do with Kelly. No one else wants his 3/$25 contract.
2 – Replace the guys not getting it done with guys who can. Do they call up the likes of Santana? If you look at possible relievers on the 40 man, you see Dennis Santana, Yadier Alvarez, Adam McCreery, Josh Sborz, Brock Stewart and Jaime Schultz – none of whom are pitching well. Do they cut ties with Stewart, McCreery of one of the others who can’t get it done, put a few new arms on the 40 man and call them up?
3 – The Dodgers rarely make moves during the season until the Trade Deadline is coming up. I for one doubt seriously that they sign Kimbrel – bad for team chemistry (Jansen wants to close) and I doubt he will take a partial year deal – he still wants multi-years for big money.
4 – Please – no more bargain basement bullpen fixes this year – no Ryan Madsen, John Axford or Jac Rosscup.
5 – Do they rely more heavily on Urias and Stripling as primary relief options this year?
In related news, Kelly to the bereavement list, Garlick recalled. At least until Maeda comes off the DL on Sunday.
As someone else pointed out, the reason why nobody has signed Kimbrel yet is because first nobody wants to sign him before the draft and give up a pick and second because of his price tag. Kimbrel’s career OPS is better than Jansen. I do understand that different people value different stats. I value OPS the most.
Kimbrel career OPS 485, Jansen career OPS 527.
I believe Kimbrel would be an upgrade over Jansen. If the Dodgers are worried about adding payroll then maybe sign Kimbrel for about the same price annually as Jansen but maybe 1 or 2 years longer and then turn around and trade Jansen for prospects and then trade those prospects for a proven track record relief pitcher that will make an impact. I’m eyeing Sean Doolittle.
Question: How does an average relief pitcher such as Joe Kelly with an above 700 career OPS get a 25 million dollar contract over 3 years? Baffling to me.
My opinion about Joc Peterson is that he is being misused. With all that power he has he should be an everyday player. Give him a chance against left handed pitching, he does only have 346 career plate appearances against left handed pitching.
The Dodgers middle infield and catchers position is the least productive part of the offense. According to OPS stats Hernandez and Taylor are struggling against right handed pitching while Seager is struggling against left handed pitching. While Freese’s OPS is good against both left and right handed pitching. Doesn’t it make sense to have Freese in the starting lineup everyday at 1B moving Muncy to 2B and platooning SS with Seager against right handed pitching and either Hernandez or Taylor against left handed pitching. As far as catcher goes the Dodgers don’t have any options unless Will Smith is ready, but I wouldn’t rush Smith.
Other observations:
Dylan Floro should never pitch against left handed hitting, so far this season he has a 1095 OPS against left handed hitting and a career OPS of 830 against them.
Yimi Garcia is God awful.
Caleb Ferguson needs to go to the minors to work things out. He’s only 22 years old so I wouldn’t give up on him. Does he have options?
How does an average relief pitcher such as Joe Kelly with an above 700 career OPS get a 25 million dollar contract over 3 years? Oh yeah I already asked that question.
Kike’s thing I have time saying, you do not need to read an article to know, as Mr Marcos says, “Even Ray Charles can see that” I do not need to read to know what is the solution, which is simple, but difficult to execute.
Kike’s thing I have time saying, you do not need to read an article parasaberlo, as Mr Marcos says, “Even Ray Charles can see that” I do not need to read to know what is the solution, which is simple, but difficult to execute.
If Nationals continue to falter would you ever make a play for Scherzer and what would you give up. He could be our Verlander this year!
The dodgers have pitchers who can be good relievers in the system. They just have to pay them decent money. Make it worth their while to abandon starting and become relievers. Trades they’d have to give up too much. And FAs not worth the cash. So get creative. And get it going.
Mark, you’re wrong about Kiki. He still rakes against lefties. A platoon with Joc in left will give elite production in left. As good as any team in baseball as well as very good defense. Put Muncy at second and platoon Beaty and Freese at first. At the beginning of year this was an opening I thought would be there for Rios because of his bat but Beaty gets the first chance. At the trade deadline looking for Abreau from White Sox or Castellanos and Greene from Detroit. AF has always produced at trade deadline!
There is no way Kimbrel is coming to the Dodgers. Get over it! He’s chasing lifetime save stats and the HOF and he will only come to close. Like it or not Jansen wouldn’t accept an 8th inning role which would greatly upset a team leader and th e clubhouse. And Kimbrel wasn’t lights out last year anyway especially in the playoffs. He could be just a more expensive version of Kelly
I could be wrong, but this FO is not going to bring outside help in for the BP. They have also not had a lot of luck with hired hands in mid or end of season hires. Two big mistakes, Darvish and Kelly, plus a slew of SP’s gotten through trades in recent years that did not work out so well. I don’t have to list all the names, you guys know already. But, something could always happen to change this, just not likely.
Personally, I would like them to promote from within. They are very aware of their need right now because of Kelly’s inability to perform and no one else stepping up. For me, Urias will be that guy, if he gets the chance.
I agree with 59 about Kimbrell. The reason he’s not signed is his crazy contract demands, not his talent/performance. Plus after a certain point teams just said “screw it, we’re not giving up a draft pick for this dude now, so let’s all wait until June.” We’ll see his (and Kuechel) market open up in another couple weeks. I think it’s well worth overpaying him big for the rest of this season. If we were going to offer Bryce Harper 4-5 years at $40mil or whatever, we can easily sign Kimbrell and shed salary other ways if need be.
I”m looking forward to Cingrani coming back. He was so good in 2017 for us. He could be a huge piece.
Pretty timely article in the context of today’s discussion
https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-the-long-list-of-concerns-with-kike-hernandez/2019/05/24/
Kike has big problems with RH pitchers who can paint the outside corner and/or have wipeout sliders. He is pull happy and needs to take what the defense and pitchers give him and take the ball the other way more. He is good against lefties, no doubt and has so much versatility but has bad habits against RHP.
To me the disappointment is the trades for Pollock and Kelly who are showing that they are just what they were before (injury prone and not good) except Pollock was worse than before as a hitter. Relievers are all spotty and its hard to say who will come thru and when. Minor injuries are worked with and sometimes bite you. Wasn’t that Madsens issue last year at the end? Otherwise its the race to the bottom for the right handed hitters -Kike-Freese-Taylor. Which will be batting under .200 first.?
The Mets need outfielders and probably would like to add a starter to their rotation. Maybe there is a third team that the Mets and Dodgers could get with that would give the Dodgers Diaz and the Mets an outfielder and starter.
Stripling, and Floro to the Mets.
Muncy to a third team that would in turn send an outfielder to the Mets.
Or, for those that say Muncy can play LF, a third team is not needed.
Watch Felipe Rivero this weekend.
He would look good in Dodger Blue for the next few years.
Kimbrel isn’t on the shelf because he sucks. He’s on the shelf because he’s asking for too much money and too long of a contract. I agree that we should not cave to his demands. But, if you can get him to come on a shorter deal to setup for Kenley, it’s a no brainer. But, that isn’t going to happen, IMO. He might take a shorter deal, but he isn’t going to be happy pitching the 8th.
Regarding Bellinger hitting better as a RF…Last year the argument was that he hit better as a first baseman than as a CF. This year, he’s on an absolute tear playing most of his games in RF. But, he’s actually better as a first baseman this year. This argument is poppycock. You put him where the TEAM is best.
At the end of the year, you’re probably right about Joc. It seems like he’s slow to adjust. I remember a few years back he seemed to change his batting stance every other game. On the other hand, he just turned 27, so there’s still hope he can improve. He’s got a good eye at the plate and great power. His on base skills are very good, even better considering his low BA. There is something untapped in there. Maybe you know something we don’t. You talk to insiders and I don’t. But, from where I’m sitting, and from the stats I’m reading, the Kike/Pederson platoon is hard to beat. Statistically, the Freese/Beaty platoon at first base is much less productive than a Kike/Pederson platoon in left.
It’s easy to see that the pen in the weak link. The rotation has been top notch and we’re leading the league in runs scored which is the main goal for any offense. The bullpen has been pretty bad, if you check your own site there was a good write-up about this and inherited runs scored recently. I still maintain that the inherited runs scored is inflated by Doc’s propensity to make pitching changes with runners on. Bring in a cold pitcher and take him out after he warms up then brings in another cold pitcher. Maybe he wouldn’t do this so much if he had better options. Either way, the pen is the most glaring need. Unfortunately, pen arms are inconsistent, volatile and hard to predict future success. But, that doesn’t excuse AF from improving their biggest area of need.
“Friedman is plotting”
What about adding a RH slugging 1B and moving Muncy to 2B?
Update above: Minor league Report.
Will Smith and Gavin Lux are knocking on the door and using their bats to make it a loud knock.
If I were to trade for a reliever it would include Muncy who is still cheap and controllable. But if the Dodgers trade for a reliever it should be for an Ace reliever like Diaz, now with the Mets.
I would rather exchange money for Kimbrel than prospects for a trade candidate. It’s that simple for me.