There is always the debate as to whether prospects are meant to be held onto so as to build from within, or should they be used as prospect capital to acquire existing MLB stars. Of course, these trades need to be made at the peak of the prospect trade value in order to maximize the return. The Dodgers have had a perennial top 10 farm club since AF signed on as President of Baseball Operations. But they have had multiple prospects come to the big club the last few years. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Will Smith, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Austin Barnes (acquired via trade), Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty. Other than Alex Verdugo, thus far there have been but a couple of prospects traded that have made any kind of impact with their new teams: Yordan Alvarez, Willie Calhoun, Devin Smelzer. So they lost a DH who they had control of for no more than 2 months, a poor defensive 2B now playing LF for Texas (maybe), and a #5/#6 pitcher for the Twins. There are still several traded prospects that could become mainstays, but not yet.
However, after the phenomenal 2016 draft, the prospect capital is getting thinner and thinner. For 2017, out of the first 10 picks, only Zach Reks has made the 40 man roster. Jeren Kendall has been a bust thus far, Morgan Cooper has yet to pitch, Connor Wong is with Boston, James Marinan is with the Reds, Riley Otteson was released, Wills Montgomery is organizational depth, Zach Pop is on the Marlins 40 man, Rylan Bannon is converting to catcher, Connor Strain was released. Andre Jackson (12th round) was added to the 40. I am still high on SS Jacob Amaya (11th round), while others like RHRP Marshall Kasowski (13th round). Only Amaya (#10) and Jackson (#27) are on the MLB Pipeline Top 30.
2018 Draft – 1st round pick, J.T. Ginn did not sign. 2nd round pick Michael Grove had TJ surgery and the team is being very careful bringing him back. Grove is the LAD #17 prospect, and 5th round pick Devin Mann #19 prospect, are the only two prospects in the top 30. John Rooney, Braydon Fisher (has not pitched since 2018), Bryan Warzak, James Outman, Luke Heyer, Josh McLain, and Deacon Liput make up the remaining first ten draft picks. Not a sure fire prospect in the bunch.
2019 Draft – Kody Hoese and Michael Busch were draft picks #1 and #1A for LAD, and are the top two prospects from this draft class. One of my favorites from this draft class is RHP Ryan Pepiot who could conceivably make his MLB debut sometime this year. Hoese (#3), Busch (#4), Pepiot (#24), Jimmy Lewis (#26), and Brandon Lewis (#30) are currently named to the Top 30 by MLB Pipeline. While Hoese and Busch are high on the Dodgers top 30, they are not in the MLB top 100.
While the 2020 draft was short, the prospects the Dodgers did draft could rival the 2016 draft. Bobby Miller (#7 prospect), Clayton Beeter (#8 prospect), and Landon Knack (#15 prospect) are all considered potential ML pitchers once they are able to play professionally. Jake Vogel is the #14 LAD prospect. Catcher Carson Taylor will certainly get pushed due to the limited number of top catching prospects in the organization outside of Keibert Ruiz and teenager Diego Cartaya.
With two overall very poor drafts (2017 and 2018), the farm system has taken a hit. And while 2020 could become a very draft in terms of quality, the overall benefits will be minimized because it was only six players.
This is the first year under AF that the Dodgers have fallen outside the top ten farm systems per MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs rates their prospects based on Future Value.
“Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service.”
Hitter FV:
- 20 – Organization Guy
- 30 – Up & Down
- 40 – Bench Player
- 45 – Low End Reg/Platoon
- 50 – Average Everyday Player
- 55 – Above Average Regular
- 60 – All Star
- 70 – Top 10 Overall
- 80 – Top 5 Overall
Pitcher FV:
- 20 – Organization Guy
- 30 – Up & Down
- 40 – Backend Starters, FIP typically close to 5.00
- 45 – #45/#5 Starters, FIP approximately 4.20
- 50 – #4 Starters. Approximately 4.00 FIP, at times worse but then with lots of innings
- 55 – #3/#4 Starters. Approximately 3.70 FIP along with about 160 innings
- 60 – #3 Starters. 3.30 FIP, volume approaching 200 innings
- 70 – #2 Starters. FIP under 3, about 200 innings
- 80 – #1 Starters. 1-3 arms in baseball. ‘Ace’ if they do it several years in a row
MLB Pipeline has only two Dodgers in the Top 100: Josiah Gray #62, and Keibert Ruiz #68.
FanGraphs –
- Josiah Gray at 55 FV (the only automatic top 100)
- FV 50 – Keibert Ruiz, Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Jacob Amaya (Ruiz may be top 100)
- FV 45+ – Ryan Pepiot, Clayton Beeter, Bobby Miller
- FV 45 – Kody Hoese, Diego Cartaya, Alex De Jesus, Miguel Vargas, Andre Jackson, Zach McKinstry
For comparison, graduates Gavin Lux was a FV of 70, and Dustin May had a FV of 60 in the last top 100. Tony Gonsolin and Brusdar Graterol are other graduates with a FV of 50.
Baseball America has not completed their top 2021 team lists. However in the last Top 100 prospect list, Josiah Gray (#62) and Keibert Ruiz (#68) are the only Dodgers included.
Are there any can’t miss prospects that are untouchable? IMO, no. Josiah Gray is the Dodgers #1 prospect. His ceiling is a #3/#4 rotation, but some have him as a late inning high leverage reliever. While mid-rotation starters are quality, they are not elite. They should only be moved if they are packaged for an elite difference making ML player. Would I include Gray in a deal for Luis Castillo? Yes. For Sonny Gray? No. For Joe Musgrove, absolutely not.
The other consensus top prospect is Keibert Ruiz. Ruiz is a favorite of MT’s because of his bat to ball skills. He may develop some pop. His defense, pitch calling, receiving are questionable. Per MLB Pipeline:
“Ruiz has the tools to be at least a solid defender but has some lapses behind the plate. He’s agile, possesses soft hands and frames the ball well, but his receiving can get lackadaisical. He can flash solid arm strength but his accuracy wavers at times, and he threw out just 23 percent of basestealers in his first three years of full-season ball.”
Of course he can improve, but his scouting grades have been diminishing and not getting better. Two years ago, Ruiz was rated a better prospect compared to Will Smith. Smith has raced past Ruiz considerably in those two years. MT has stated that he believes that a switch from catcher to 2B or 3B for Smith to open a spot for Ruiz might be considered. IMO, I would use Ruiz in a package deal for an established top RHH 2B or 3B. Another lost year in a shortened MiLB season will certainly reduce his trade value even more.
Top OF prospect is an 18 year old who has never played professionally, Luis Rodriguez (LAD prospect #6). After Rodriguez, the question marks are considerable. DJ Peters (#11), Andy Pages (#12), Jake Vogel (#14), and Cody Thomas (#29).
DJ has prodigious power, but is a strikeout machine. Pages is a total lottery ticket. He could be an All-Star or a bust. If Vogel can hit, the Dodgers have their CF of the future. But he has not played a game above high school. He did make the secondary squad for part of 2020, but that is not the same. Thomas is a tremendous athlete, but I am not sure how good of a baseball player he is. He does not currently project to be more than a reserve OF with some defensive skills to go with a power bat. He has gone through the Rule 5 draft twice without being taken. Luke Raley and Zach Reks are #4 and #5 OF types. Neither will be regulars in the LAD lineup.
Next level OF are Donovan Casey, Jeren Kendall, Carlos Rincon, and newly acquired Roimer Bolivar. Kendall is a huge disappointment, and will be 25 next year having only reached High A. He will undoubtedly start at AA and will need to impress quickly or forever be forgotten. He has zero trade value. He is looking to join Chris Anderson, Zach Lee, and Chris Reed as 1st round pick busts. Donovan Casey is a good organizational OF, but is not going to make the Dodgers roster anytime soon, if ever.
Where would the Dodgers be if they lost both Belli and Mookie for any extended period of time, as the Yankees did with Judge and Stanton? The Dodgers are very weak in the OF prospect.
The Dodgers have three top 30 prospects listed as 3B: Kody Hoese (#3), Miguel Vargas (#13), and Brandon Lewis (#30). None of the three are considered even average defensive 3B and are probably more suited for 1B or DH. All three are hitters first, that the organization is trying to find a defensive position. Hoese is the closest to the ML, and some think he can make the roster by 2022. Vargas and Lewis are longshots and might best be used in a trade to maximize their value.
Outside of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers have one listed 2B prospect and he is a good one, Michael Busch. Busch is another hit first player who is being pushed at 2B. He could also find himself at 1B or in the LF. His MLB Pipeline scouting report on his bat:
“Busch masterfully controls the strike zone, waiting for pitches he can attack and taking walks when pitchers refuse to challenge him. His sweet left-handed swing features plenty of bat speed and his balanced approach allows him to drive the ball to all fields. He should hit for average and power while drawing more than his share of walks, giving him one of the highest offensive ceilings and floors among 2019 draftees.”
IMO, if there is only one sure keeper between Busch and Hoese, Busch is the keeper.
The Dodgers have four top 30 prospects listed as 2B or SS: Jacob Amaya (#10), Devin Mann (#19), Alex De Jesus (#20), Omar Estevez (#21). We already know what MLB thinks of a relatively young middle infielder, Omar Estevez, who was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and was not drafted. If Jacob Amaya hits, he is a legit ML SS. He has a 55 hit tool but only a 40 power. He is considered to be the best defensive infielder in the Dodgers MiLB system. If moved to 2B, he would be considered plus defensively. He is not currently on the fast track, but if he does get comfortable at the plate, he will get pushed. Alex De Jesus is the wild card in this group. He will need to improve his plate discipline, but has good hit and power potential. He has a 60 rated arm, but is not yet an average defensive SS. He is still 18, and was the second youngest qualifier in the AZL (Rookie) in 2019. I have been talking about De Jesus since he was signed during the same signing period as Diego Cartaya and pitcher Jerming Rosario. I think he will be fun to watch grow.
The Dodgers have a glut of RHP prospects. Of the 30 top prospects, 13 are RHP:
- Josiah Gray #1
- Bobby Miller #7
- Clayton Beeter #8
- Mitch White #9
- Landon Knack #15
- Gerardo Carrillo #16
- Michael Grove #17
- Edwin Uceta #22
- Kendall Williams #23
- Ryan Pepiot #24
- Hyun-il Choi #25
- Jimmy Lewis #26
- Andre Jackson #27
They have one LHP prospect, #28 Robinson Ortiz.
Josiah Gray is the top rated Dodger prospect, with a ceiling as a #3/#4 in the rotation. Both Gray and Mitch White figure to get starting assignments during the season. Gray is probably the most untouchable Dodger prospect, but even he is not considered a can’t miss candidate, and under the right circumstances, could be moved. Knowing how AF operates, that is extremely unlikely. Bobby Miller and Clayton Beeter are the next pitchers up, and both could find themselves in the rotation or the bullpen, maybe as early as 2021 (bullpen) or 2022 (rotation).
There are no elite LAD prospects, but a lot of depth. Another AF trademark. Of the top 6 prospects, two are Dodger 2019 draftees, 3 are international free agents, and their #1 prospect was acquired via trade. As an aside, it is interesting to read all of the negative comments about AF’s international draft, and yet 3 of the top 6 prospects are international free agents. Albeit, Ruiz predates AF. It is hard to sustain an elite farm system when you are continually drafting in the 28-30 position of each round. They have had a tremendous run, and maybe now some movement of excess pieces for positions of need both at the ML and MiLB level might be in order. So while I love MiLB, and specifically the Dodgers MiLB, we need to be honest as to how this farm system can improve the ML team in 2021.
The Padres moved 14 blocked players, where maybe three could eventually make the Padres 26 man roster, and end up with three top of the rotation SP, and a significantly improved offensive starting catcher. The three: Taylor Trammell (OF), Luis Patino (RHSP), Cole Wilcox (RHSP). Do the Dodgers sit on 13 RHSP, most rated just about the same, until their trade value disappears? Zach Lee, Chris Reed, Chris Anderson, Yadier Alvarez, and Jeren Kendall. All were highly rated at one time, but only Zach Lee got any return, and that was a because Seattle had given up on CT3.
Scouting grades are a great tool, but they cannot be used in a vacuum. Scouting grades do not measure heart or desire or confidence or work ethic. Both Yadier Alvarez and Jeren Kendall are still with the Dodgers, and the best the Dodgers can probably do, would be to just add them at the bottom of a package, or release them. They are the proverbial PTBNL. The grades for Yadi Alvarez’ arm were off the charts. But there was a missing ingredient. Was it lack of heart? Lack of desire? Complacency? Not willing to put the necessary work in? Then Jeren Kendall. He went from going into his junior year in college as the best college bat in the country, to a potential overall #1, to a late first round pick by the Dodgers. He has the tools, so his scouting grades put him in the top tier. But something is missing. Those missing components do not get grades. They just get noticed as the player continue to flounder even with the tools. That is why a player with can’t miss tools can become a bust. Unfortunately, it does not work in reverse. A player can have all the desire and heart, and put in tons of extra work, but if the skill set is not there to begin with, there is not much to build on. That is also why someone who does not have the tools will find it hard to move up the scouting grades. Maybe they can work themselves into becoming a MLB player and even a good MLB player, but not to an elite top 100 guy. Of course there are exceptions. One can never say never.
Gavin Lux is a bit of both scenarios. After being drafted, Lux had the skill set to get the top grades. After the first two years when he did not produce, he fell out of the top 100. Something clicked and he found another gear and worked his way back to the top. All the way to #2 overall, and a 70 grade. But he had the foundation to build on. Now Gavin Lux’s trade value has decreased from where he was at after the 2019 season. IMO, it is better to keep someone with his skill set and give him the platform to build that confidence backup, rather than to trade him with his value level down.
Keibert Ruiz is blocked by Will Smith. How far behind Ruiz is Diego Cartaya? Do you keep Ruiz as an emergency just in case? Or do you headline him in a trade? The Dodgers cannot possibly need or use 13 RHSP. Some will become relievers, but the 2019 draft provided multiple relief options which do not show up on prospect lists, but somehow find their way onto a roster. As an aside, the Brewers who have one of the worst farm systems, had the top NL reliever in 2020, Devin Williams, who was a #13 prospect. There is not one LAD SS/2B prospect who is untouchable.
After the Padres transactions, they still have 4 top 100 prospects (3 top 50). The Dodgers have not made any trades, and have 2 top 100 prospects (no top 60). Comparatively, the Dodgers are probably the #4 farm system in the NL West per MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis/Jonathan Mayo).
- Padres have 4 top 100 (3 top 50)
- Giants have 5 top 100 (2 top 50)
- Arizona has 4 top 100 (2 top 50)
- LAD has 2 top 100 (0 top 50)
So the Dodgers can improve their team through FA and only money, or by packaging players they will never use as did the Padres. Or they can stand pat and try to fill their needs internally. They just do not have a DJLM or Bauer or Arenado or Bryant or Castillo or Realmuto or Lindor in the organization, not already on the ML roster.
Discussion (69)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Thanks for the great posts, Mark and Jeff, the past couple of days, and all of the interesting and often entertaining comments! I haven’t had time to comment much lately, but I wanted to wish all of you at LADT a happy and above all healthy new year!
Lots of food for thought today that is for sure. Anyway, I went to the Springs for my eye appointment and I thought it was going to be a pre op for my laser surgery. But I was totally surprised that he did the surgery today. I go back next week for a follow up, and then I get my new specs. I am down with what ever AF decides. He has done pretty well so far. And Bum, Torres is a mediocre fielder.
I realize it’s human nature to want the Dodgers to make some big impactful deal. So much uncertainty. Everyone wants the big trade, the major signing, but the Dodgers did that last year. Doesn’t get much bigger than Mookie Betts.
Maybe for those of us who want to re-sign Justin Turner we’re just being sentimental, remembering days gone by — but he was pretty good in the playoffs. Has proven to be a clutch player for many years. In many ways he’s the face of the franchise along with Clayton Kershaw.
We can always talk about Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado although it’s highly unlikely fhe Rockies would make a deal with LA. Would Bryant be a significant upgrade? Maybe, maybe not.
Running a variety of scenarios, many that have been posted here, Turner seems to be the best option. It would be nice to have the DH. Something could always pop up that makes sense. We’ll see.
It’s also human nature to think the grass is greener on the other side of the hill, which is exactly where the Lindor argument falls. Sometimes we forget just how good Corey Seager was before he got hurt. How exceptional he was in 2020 and in the playoffs.
What about second base some will say? Well, Gavin Lux could be pretty good. There is always DJ LeMahieu, very good hitter, versatile. Thought the Dodgers should have signed him after he left the Rockies. Orel Hershiser said the Dodgers should have signed him back then. But the Dodgers chose a different path. One way or the other Friedman seems to be right more often than not.
What about a bat? AJ Pollock had a pretty good year. They could use another right handed hitter. But the Dodgers can always use back end bullpen improvement. But I’ve noticed over the years that many of the suggestions made here never actually happen. Fun to speculate though.
I never saw a more arm talented guy than Yadi Alvarez.
I watched him at Spring training a couple years ago and it was amazing what velocity he created with ease.
Too bad his brain was not up to his arm.
Go Dodgers””””””””””””””
I was hoping the Dodgers would pursue Blake Snell, and they probably did. If AF was in charge of SD, that trade does not get made. AF would never have included Patino in a deal, nor Wilcox. Wilcox had 1st round talent and slipped to the 3rd round, so who knows. Patino is the prize for Tampa Bay. Different philosophies for AF and Preller.
My number one wish would be Luis Castillo. If they could somehow work out a deal for Castillo and Suarez, that would be a coup. But Castillo alone would make my offseason. Castillo (28) has three years of control. Pitched 70 innings last year, and allowed 5 HRs playing half his games in that bandbox, AKA Great American Ballpark. 89 strikeouts to 24 walks.
You cannot move players up to a 55 grade after missing a year, just because your scouts and coaches think they had a good year at the secondary site or in the instructional league. Grades are relative. Since nobody played last year, the grades and rankings should stay the same. That does not mean they are meaningless. It just measures no change.
Will Rhymes, LAD Farm Director, had some very positive things to say about specific ball players. He did single out Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, Kendall Williams, James Outman, and Miguel Vargas. Others singled out Ryan Pepiot. Kyle Glazer, Baseball America, listed Busch as one of his 19 that stood out in the instructional league. Other than Lux, I cannot remember anyone saying anything positive or negative about Hoese. Meaning he is probably developing just fine. I like Michael Busch and prefer him to Kody Hoese as a prospect because of his hit skill. But I do not think he is on a path to being a perennial All Star candidate. He is not a DJLM. He is not Chase Utley. He is not a Robinson Cano. He is not Gleyber Torres. He has a ways to go to show he is better than Gavin Lux. The closest upside comp I can think of is Daniel Murphy. Some have already compared him to Max Muncy. If he turns out to be that level, that is just fine. But let’s at least see what he can do against real competition before we say he could mash like Mike Piazza.
Here is what scouts said about Busch from the Instructional League:
Busch earned universal reviews as the top hitter in Arizona. He took high quality at-bats, turned around upper-90s velocity and showed home run power to center field and both gaps. His balance, bat speed, hand-eye coordination and strike-zone discipline all drew high praise. Evaluators were split on Busch’s defense at second base, but he earned consistent grades as a plus hitter with plus power.
Chances are the MiLB season will be short again. If Busch can somehow find his way to AA before the end of the MiLB season, then we can relook at whether he is a top 100 guy. So much more goes into the scouting grade than hitting, and I think that is what most are keying on. Michael needs to improve his range, his arm, and his speed to get to at least a 50 in those skillsets. He has a 40 arm, 40 field, and 45 run grade. It takes an overall 55 to get into the top 100, and not all 55’s are considered to be top 100. No matter how much Will Rhymes talks them up, Busch/Hoese/Miller/Beeter/Pages/Pepiot have to show it in competition to move up.
How did the other players at the same grade level play last summer in their secondary site or instructional league? I am sure those fans are just as high that their team’s players have improved to get into the top 100. How do Busch and Hoese compare to Brice Turang, Mark Vientos, Brayan Rocchio, Lewin Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jose Garcia, Ezequial Duran, Kevin Alcantara, Orelvis Martinez, Alexander Vargas, William Contreras, Ryan Rolison. These are all guys outside of the top 100 but rated higher than Hoese and Busch.
I think too many people are getting caught up in top 100. How many are in top 100 distinguishes how the organizations farm system compares to others. Right now the Dodgers have two in the top 100, and that puts them closer to the middle than to the top. But they do not need 5 top 100 guys at this time. It is not an end all be all, and does not mean that individuals outside of the top 100 will not be productive ML players? Randy Arozarena was not included in the top 100 last year.
Below is a link from Baseball America on who the scouts thought stood out at the Instructional League. Of the 19, only two, Josh Jung, Texas 3B, and Adley Rutschman, Orioles Catcher, are top 100 prospects. For those who think Busch should be moved to top 100 because of Instructional League, why can’t the same argument be made for the other 16 players. Some will get added soon, while others will still not be included.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/19-mlb-prospects-who-impressed-scouts-at-instructional-league-in-2020/
RF Betts
SS Seager
1B Bryant
RF Bellinger
C Smith
3B Ríos
LF Pollock / Joc
2B Lux
RIP Dawn Wells
MaryAnn made me try coconut cream pie for the first time !
Dee Strange Gordon sounds like a superhero. If Dr. Strange and Flash Gordon had a kid? I think that’s possible these days.
Good information Jeff.
Bobby’s post is very telling to me. You don’t need Top 10 picks to find gems. Get the scouting developed, which I thought we had done, get the best teachers into the system, which I’m told we’ve done, and work it. It feels like there’s a sharp bend in our road as not having anyone in the Top 50 hasn’t happened to us in a while. My opinion on Hoese hasn’t changed, 45 on the Scouting Scale sounds right to me. He’s got some growing to do and he’s already 23, 24 in July, so I’m not waiting around for him. Rios is still my pick for third base, and I’m bringing back Turner to share time with him. Wobbly knees? I don’t see it that way. Turner projects well over .800 OPS , with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, a triple, and 3 stolen bases …and that’s with only 426 AB’s. You don’t do that on wobbly knees.
Prospects – Gray, yes, of course. But he doesn’t look, or grade, like Buehler and Urias did. He also wasn’t drafted by the Dodgers. Beeter and Miller? 55 grades, but each have some holes in their game. Beeter, control, Miller, enough ML pitches to start.
One of our infield prospects to left sounds fine to me but we don’t need a left fielder yet. Pages looks to be the real thing, Rodriguez could be.
We don’t need much really. In my bubble Friedman hasn’t done anything yet. But it’s coming.
I read today….. well here you read it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/once-you-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-can-you-still-infect-others/
Still so much we don’t know. But professional sports is powering forward so, hold on to your lap bars, it’s going to be a wild ride.
Why can’t Justin become the next David Freeze?
Great Post Jeff.
The Dodgers could use a couple of regulars under the age of 26 or they are going to get old together as a team down the road. Adding Turner, Arenado, Lindor add to the number of players 29 and older. That said, it is the players that are around the age of 29 that are the most intriguing. Age considerations is one of the reasons I like Gleyber so much.
I really like the Smith/Barnes catching tandem. Time to trade Ruiz even though he is younger than Barnes.
I would only sign Turner to a one year contract if he is signed at all.
Mark has talked a lot about moving Smith to the infield to make room for Ruiz. No one has mentioned about signing Realmuto who can also play first base and pairing hi with Smith who can also play third base. That adds a righty bat to the regular lineup. It would also allow the Dodgers to trade Muncy with Realmuto, Busch, Hoese, Rios, and Bellinger filling innings at first.
I would trade Muncy, Taylor, and Gray for Gleyber Torres.
Nice analysis, AC. But here’s my simple opinion: Yes, it is more likely that a top 10 pick pans out to a become a top quality prospect and eventually MLB player. Yes, we never have top 10 picks (rarely even top 20). But there are 30 other rounds and international guys to choose from. We’ve been a top 5 farm this last 7-8 year run, but who among our graduated guys that AC listed are top 10 picks?
Joc Pederson: 4th round pick I believe
Corey Seager, the#16 pick in the draft (or there)
Cody Bellinger, 4th round pick
Walker Buehler, late 1st (granted he was injured, but we took a chance)
Will Smith, 30th pick or so
Alex Verdugo, 2nd round pick
Gavin Lux, late 1st round pick
Dustin May, 3rd round pick
Tony Gonsolin, 9 th round pick
Julio Urias, int’l free agent
Caleb Ferguson: 38th round pick
Austin Barnes (acquired via trade),
Edwin Rios, I believe 4th
Matt Beaty. I believe 9th
Many of these guys became top 100 prospects and weren’t top 5 picks. Sure, that means we have to hit on our lower picks, but we’ve done it before. It’s a bit concerning that the 2017and 2018 drafts were so poor. No wonder we’ve dropped a bit to middle of the pack. I guess we’ll really know where we stand at the end of 2021, assuming that there is a MILB season and guys can be evaluated again.
Jeff, this post was absolutely great. So much information here and great points on scouting and evaluation of prospects. This is what I was looking for this winter and your provided it in one package. This is cut and paste for future reference. Thanks for all this research.
Here are some random thoughts related to your article:
* For a few years the Padres were either at the top or near the top as an organization for prospects. Now we see how that has translated into obtaining MLB talent. And they still have top prospects. I can’t stand the bastards but I’ll give the GM credit for making them better.
* Half the scouts I know have been cut loose. Without them and MiLB there’s no way to access talent levels for less experienced players. It’s a guess.
* Jeff, you were spot on with “Scouting grades do not measure heart or desire or confidence or work ethic”. A kid’s “make up” has nothing to do with Revlon products and everything to do with a scout’s ability to dig up the intangibles.
* A few great players come to mind that didn’t fit the mold that scouts today would look for. They wouldn’t be sighed today, especially with the reduced number of rounds coming up. How about Jaime Moyer, Hunter Pence who was athletic with extremely unorthodox actions, small guys like Freddie Patak, David Ekstein and even Pete Rose. It’s an inexact science and finding those “missing tools” is what scouts dig for.
* An organization just can’t miss on first round picks.
* It’s a problem when young prospects don’t have a position. It’s not a good thing when a kid grades out early as a DH or forced to hide at first base.
* From Jeff’s article and my eyes, I conclude that the Dodgers value bats, especially left handed bats, over defense for the most part. I think they think the Player Development folks can make a hitter an adequate defended, somewhere.
* So what’s the future of Luke Raley, Zach Reks, DJ Peters, Andy Pages, Jake Vogel, and Cody Thomas? If there is any value here it’s time to move it, especially the 25 plus guys. There’s no room at the inn.
* Trade Lux or give him the shot as the everyday 2nd baseman. I keep hearing and reading about his great tools, but so far I don’t see them. As I’ve said before, I don’t love his actions defensively and I don’t love his body language. I’ve been wrong before.
Again, great post Jeff!
Let me add my kudos to the others here for a great and thought provoking article AC.
You spent some time talking about Busch. How about this for a thought. We are lacking in upper level outfield prospects. Busch is universally considered an excellent hitter but only a fair defender at second. Why not move him to left field? I’m thinking that is an easier position to play adequately than second base is.
First off, great realistic analysis of the state of the Dodgers farm system right now Jeff. As always, you’re very good at looking into things thoroughly and fairly. While I agree with most of it, I would like to point out that some prospects that were never highly touted have become great players. Brian Giles and Magglio Ordonez come to mind just off the top of my head, so I’m sure there have been many others. I don’t think either of those players were ever ranked in the top 50, but both have multiple all star and MVP top 10 finishes. So, there is hope for the Cody Hoese’s and Michael Busch’s of the world.
I freaked out a couple of days ago realizing that the Dodger’s 40 man currently sits at 39, with no RH every day player and no high leverage reliever signed to date unless you count a recovering Knebel.
I down played the Padres recent acquisitions. There’s as good a chance that Price is better than Darvish as there is the other way around. There’s as good a chance that Snell turns into Drew Smyly as there is that he has another Cy Young year. There’s as good a change that Kim becomes Kike than he becomes an every day second baseman. But, there’s no denying that they are improved and that they are trying.
I think the school of thought that the Dodgers should just sign JT and a couple of relievers and move on is overly simplistic and comes from the heart wanting JT to be the same JT that he’s been over the last several years. But, I don’t think that makes the team better. I think a trade or trades needs to occur to improve the team and not let the Padres catch us or upset us like the Nats did in ’19.
I’m questioning the recent moves that adding two relievers to the 40 man that may not pitch or be useful in 2020. While there are a lot of quality relievers available, the left handed variety is not up to par, but was a clear need for depth so, I guess this makes sense for the Cleavinger signing. But, he hardly screams key piece. But does Kahnle make any sense when you also have Morrow and Nelson? Maybe Morrow and Nelson are both expected to be on the 40 man as soon as the Dodgers can put Ferguson and Kahnle on the 60 day.
With all those additions, it seems like we can’t possibly add more relievers and a RH every day bat and a RH bench piece. Something has to give. Too many pitchers and too many LH position players and very little has happened overall across the league this offseason except for the Padres of course.
I’m looking forward to see what the new year will bring. It certainly won’t be JT and a couple of relievers. Look for bigger changes.
They posted Bauer’s contract desires on Yahoo news today. He wants a 200 mil deal with an average AAV of 36 mil, the same as Cole gets. I think he is dreaming. Or delusional. As for the farm, there are a couple of ways to build it up, one is tank and finish dead last in baseball, but the fans would never stand for that, another is trade established stars, like the Rays and Cubbies for prospects. AF has done that a couple of times, and the other is to draft wisely grasshopper. Since Friedman arrived as Jeff stated, they have veered away from drafting HS players. But AF has also drafted a few that were damaged goods IE, Buehler. Maybe it is time to thin out the crop and get some serious fire power in the lineup. I at this point do not care if Turner returns. This has dragged out long enough. He is 36, on wobbly knees, with diminishing fielding skills. Time to move on. Younger and faster, maybe someone with more power. Suarez and Arenado both fill that bill. I would love LeMahieu on the team, but he is also in his 30’s and I do not see a long term, 5 year deal like he desires as something AF would go for. The only way they do that is if Ownership says do it. Get a solid back of the pen reliever, one of the better ones, not some slug, and get Jansen some serious help. He cannot carry the load by himself. Commit to Urias as a starter. I know he was lights out in relief, but this year was a total anomaly. With a 162 game schedule, you need guys you can trust, and he showed me enough to be considered part of the rotation. Decide before next year if you are going to extend Kershaw for a season or two. None of this waiting around to see what happens. He deserves to end his career as a Dodger if that is what he wants, but not at 30 mil plus a year. Weed out some of the left handed bats. They are pretty much interchangeable parts. And none makes me shake in my boots. Reks, Raley, Beaty, all the same guy. Put Taylor in the infield as a super sub where he belongs. Set the rotation as Kersh, Buehler, Price, May and Urias. Gonsolin would be the swing man, with White, Nelson, and Gray all lined up behind them. If you need a starter, sign one who is a free agent, or make a trade at the deadline. Hell, unload Kersh if you are not going to extend him. Just do something. The waiting is driving me NUTS! LOL.
Not to overstate the obvious, but I do not believe you evaluate Gavin Lux on 2020, nor do I think you can place value on prospects no one has seen on the field in a year.
The discussion came up on Russo’s show on MLB radio the other day and he pretty much shut down the whole prospect part of the discussion as to what went back to Tampa Bay as part of the Blake Snell deal. Pretty much no one has seen any of the prospects play in a year so how do you evaluate how valuable they are, he was quick to point out.
Players rise and fall, often based on what they do in the summer or winter ball. We simply do not know. Sometimes players on the rise, highly rated, take a massive step back and eventually fall off the radar. I always had a chance to see Dodger prospects when Rancho played in Lancaster several times each year. You could get a pretty good idea of who was an up and coming player, who could become a future star (Seager, Bellinger, Urias etc.). Who was borderline, good, but maybe not quite at the same level. Who was just taking a roster spot. I will miss being able to see those players, always looked forward to it.
Didn’t have that opportunity last summer, so I’m honestly not sure how I would evaluate the prospects who are mentioned here. I’m not sure how good Hoese or Busch are — but I have seen Gray, Lux and Ruiz. Liked all three.
I’ve read the same scouting reports most of you have, of course, but that’s kind of dated information at this point.
Moving along.
Trevor Bauer is an interesting potential Dodger, although at this point I’m not taking the pursuit seriously. He’s somewhat different. Would he actually fit into the Dodger approach and team? Maybe a top flight back end reliever would make more sense. Still think the Dodgers should have pursued Snell. If Friedman had made that deal, would anybody be talking about the Padres now? Then like Clevinger, he could get injured and all the joy would fade away. Still, he sure looked like a difference maker.
Oh well, water beneath the bridge.
The Dodgers have given off so many mixed messages, hard to know where they stand. We need to save money where we can or the pigs comment. Or Roberts change is a good thing.
As to making the big trade? Maybe. The Dodgers certainly have the prospects to do it. Maybe it’s a deal with the Reds. Probably not the Rockies. That just wouldn’t sit well in Colorado. Maybe there is another more under the radar deal to be had. Then again, the Dodgers are pretty loaded. Just re-sign Turner, add a couple of relievers more and move forward.
What did we get in cleavenger? The Phillies trade one lefty to get another. Apparently they rated Alvarado ahead of clevenger (spelling) did we get someone for organizational depth? What is your take on the trade Jeff?
Firstly, thanks to AC and Michael for answering my question yesterday about Lux WS Ring, and the Rox willingness to trade Arenado.
Secondly, Jeff – this really is yet another excellent piece – at a very opportune time, just as we are all contemplating Trades following the Padre’s shopping spree.
It’s puts into perspective exactly where we stand with what we can offer in the way of trades.
Possibly we are not as Prospect Rich as we imagined? Maybe we might need to trade one of our stars to get another, much as we did with Verdugo to get Betts. That hurt at the time, but look at the result!
Maybe the bigger question that this Prospect assessment asks, is whether this moment (now) is when we need to push the chips in as possibly we havnt got the Seagars, Belingers, Smiths, Beuhlers, Jocs, Julie’s or Verdugos in the system coming through, and need to supplement our existing Roster with some quality MLB players by way of Trade?
Maybe this next couple of years is our window of opportunity?
Add Bauer at purely a financial cost, and Bauer, Beuhler, Kershaw, Price, May, Urias & Gonsolin gives us plenty of Post Season options, and we need them for sure against the Padres and Braves.
Maybe we should serious consider kicking the tires on Arenado – like Michael said – he is holding all the cards and the Rox just got further away from contention with the Padres moves. The time might be right to do a deal and it would solve two problems, 3B and a RH Thumper (who provides Gold Glove Defence).
Bauer and Arenado would be “being pigs” to quote AF, and maybe it’s time to feed at the trough, or rather it’s suddenly become rather more urgent.
Like I said immediately after the WS win, good teams always strengthen from a position of strength.
I know Michael and B&P have similar thoughts.
Might be the right time to get creative, something AF is excellent at.
Interesting read. Guess we will all see how AF handles things going forward.
Read this today. Amazing the team one could put together based on players we lost this year.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseball-lost-a-team-of-legends-this-year/
Sorry to hear about your fall Bear. It seems as we age those things increase in frequency. It’s very frustrating.
Although our minor league system has been diminished we can feel good with all the prospects that have developed and become Dodgers. If we sign Seager and Bellinger long term then, along with Betts, the Dodgers will have stars or superstars at three of the eight positions. That’s a nice situation to be in. If AF can continue to hit on a FA/trade similar to Taylor or Muncy every 3-5 years that can be huge. It takes a lot of pressure off the front office to hit on the draft each year. And, then the international market can give the team access to some top prospects that wouldn’t be available to the Dodgers in the draft. With the lack of dependability or consistency in relievers I like what the Dodgers did in the 2019 draft. They emphasized college pitchers that can be developed quicker and be used in relief. This helps to minimize the cost risk that can come along FA relievers. Now if they can just get an opportunity to play in 2021.
I don’t think the different ratings are that important at the moment. With no MiLB last year it’s impossible for evaluators to realistically rate prospects. The Dodgers are strong in the area of player development. Several players may have improved dramatically and there was no one around outside the Dodger organization to observe that improvement. It appears the different ratings aren’t very positive on Hoese either as a hitter or 3B. Yet, Lux raved about Kody when he returned from the alternate sight at the end of the season. So, again, only the Dodgers staff knows what’s what with him. Lux may have been blowing smoke about him. And, the evaluators and scouts haven’t seen him play in over a year which was his first. Hopefully there is MiLB this year so we and the scouts can get a better handle on our prospects.
The unknown, how do the Dodgers grade Ruiz, Gray, Hoese, Busch, Lux, et al after watching them at the alternate training site last summer. I would love to see Ruiz share catching duties with Austin Barnes, and in a couple of years Cartaya, so that Smith could move to another position that would keep his bat in the lineup for 150 games a season. If the team can get a top notch third baseman, or second baseman by including Ruiz in a trade package that works as well. There is another catcher in the organization to consider, Hunter Feduccia (23). After being drafted in the 12th round in 2018 he had excellent hitting stats in Rookie Ball and later Great Lakes. After 50 games with the Loons in 2019 he was slashing .288/.399/.457/.856 – moved up to High A was a challenge, but only 22 games. Baseball America scouting report before the 2018 draft had him with the ability to be a well rounded catching prospect with potential to be an average ML catcher. There were reports that Busch looked great last Fall in AZ rookie ball, hitting for average and power, and he had significantly improved his quickness and fielding playing second base. Hoese was considered the best hitter at the alternate site – an interesting report that the Dodgers batting coaches told him not to change anything with his hitting, just go out and do what you do.
Great coverage of the recent drafts.
The state of the Dodger farm system is the result of winning 8 division titles in a row and playing deep into the post-season. I still believe they are TOP 10, if only for the depth, however, this is the most difficult year to rank farm systems because we did not see the progress.
Also, we never know who will just put it all together as Will Smith did. It now appears that Will is bordering on stardom, but not even Marty Lamb, the scout who signed him, predicted that. Will Smith himself said he had issues.
“I just had to break some bad habits,” Smith said. “I had to learn how to time the fastball better, not miss it when I got a chance. I’d had some highs and lows, and the lows were lasting too long. But I still felt like I was a good hitter, with a good feel for the strike zone.”
Smith said he heard he might go in the “10th to the 20th round” when the year started, then the fifth to 10th, then second to third, and finally better than that. They call it “draft helium.” Sometimes it’s not to be trusted. Sometimes it finds a new horizon.
No one thought Will Smith would be an All-Star Caliber player – most projected him as a backup. But, he just gets it. I think Mike Bush and Kody Hoese may follow a similar path as Smith. Busch is just a hitter, but he seems committed to improving his defense, so if he is willing he can do it.
The Dodgers are working Hoese at 3B nd SS – I have not seen it, but have heard that his defense is greatly improving – otherwise, why would they have him at SS? I have heard great things about Busch and Hoese by both players and others close to the game, but have not seen their progress for a year.
Ruiz was drafted for his defense, but as a teenager, he did exhibit some laziness behind the plate. That rap is hard to ditch. Will Smith figured out that launch angle and swing makeover quickly. Again, I have no idea how Ruiz did last year, but he did hit a HR in his first AB.
I wish I could be high on Lux – I wasn’t, then was, and now am not again. Hopefully, he is all that. The Dodgers also have several pitchers who are close, but what did last year do for them? It’s the same with every team. Last season had the potential to help or hurt a player…
Great stuff Jeff. An awful lot to chew on. For years the only way I got any info on prospects was the occasional Baseball America I would buy. Or the Sporting News. Smith’s Baseball which usually comes out in late February was always a great source of info on prospects and the college players. Athlon, since they started publication has improved in that area. I really want to see what Rodriguez has. The couple of video’s I have seen of the kid are impressive. Never got that feeling watching Kendall. I have been dissapointed over the years with some rookies I thought would blossom into something good. Even those who spent some years with the team. I always thought Willie Davis could have been better, Wes Parker too. But guys like Willie Crawford, who I saw hit some monster homers, just never developed into the kind of hitter they were projected to be. Mike Marshall was another one. That guy had some serious power, and yet he never hit as many as we thought he would. Billy Ashley was a monster in spring, and a mouse in the regular season. But one player who really dissapointed me after a good beginning was Greg Brock. I thought he would be the Dodger first baseman for a long time. That idea died pretty fast. I still have faith that Lux will be a lot better than he showed in 2020, and even better than his short stint in 2019. He just has some great tools. I think they should part with some of those prospects who have little if no shot at making the roster, and I would even put Reks and Raley on that list. Although I think they have little trade value due to their ages, 27 and 26. I see Beaty, who was so clutch in 19 as a trade candidate too. He deserves the same kind of shot they gave Garlick when they traded him to the Phillies last year. I would target Suarez if they think they will not resign JT< which as each week passes I see less and less likely. But make it a multiplayer trade and try to pry Castillo from them too. Even if it is a 5-2 trade, it would be worth it. Although I would love to see DJLM in a Dodger uni, I think the desire he has for a 5 year deal knocks LA out of the bidding. I had to go to the office of my friends lawyer who is handling his estate today to drop off some papers. I missed the curb, which was filled with water, snow and ice and took a dive. His my right elbow, which is arthritic anyway, and boy that sucker has hurt all evening. Nothing broke in there, but I caught it in just the right spot. Can anyone say Klutz?
Could the Dodgers trade for Suarez and sign DJLM? I think it would be possible, but is it probable? That would make a more stronger LA lineup. That covers 3B and 2B problems …
RF Betts
SS Seager
2B DJLM
1B Muncy
3B Suarez
CF Bellinger
LF Pollock
C Smith