When Andrew Friedman was named President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers it was a dream come true for me. Let me be clear: I do not claim to know what he knows, but in my business I always hire people smarter than me (that narrows it down to 98% of the population), and Andrew is most certainly smarter than me… probably you too!
When he was hired, Stan Kasten charged him with winning by improving the farm system while winning at the MLB level as well. He was not allowed to “tank” for even one season, let alone multiple seasons, like just about every other team. Now, I have never read anyone who has published Andrew Friedman’s Ten Commandments, nor have I talked to him about them, but by observation, I am pretty sure that I have them exactly as he would word them.
#1 – “You must remain competitive year-over-year“. This is the most important commandment. Fans need to be engaged every year and it is Andrew’s responsibility to deliver that to Dodger fans – EVERY YEAR! The Dodgers are in a major market and in order to maximize income, they need to the relevant every year and they have been since he arrived on the scene. Being relevant puts butts in seats and those fans buy stuff like food and drink and Dodger swag! They would like to have a sellout every day.
#2 – “You must have a strong preference for versatility.” Players who can play multiple positions are regarded higher than players who can play only one position. It is something that is catching on all across baseball. When players can play multiple positions competently, then the Manager has a lot more flexibility and opportunities to exploit matchups.
#3 – “You must draft the best available player, regardless of need.” Well, in reality, you can’t always do that, but it holds up most of the time. The Dodgers have not drafted too many Left-Handed Pitchers lately, primarily because they have had opportunities to draft other players that they deem “the best player available.” Recently, they have added a number of large, workhorse-type Right-Handed Starting Pitchers. The only deviation of this was a spate of catchers drafted in the last six years because they were very thin at that spot.
#4 – “You must remember that college players are closer to the show than high school players.” Logan White had a strong preference for High School players, but it is much harder to project them as they take many years to fully mature and refine their skills. The Dodgers do take some high schoolers now (Jake Vogel one of the latest examples), but they draft a lot more College players as they are more mature and this, more projectable.
#5 – “You should not sign free agents that require draft pick compensation.” This is the only commandment that does not have the word “must” at the beginning – Rather it has the word “should.” In other words, stay away from signing players to whom a team has extended the Qualifying Offer. This should generally preclude signing DJ LeMahieu and/or Trevor Bauer. Every time you give up a draft pick, you are risking losing out on a star player. Of course, not all draft picks pan out, but the more high draft picks you keep, the more success you will have. It’s the simple law of averages.
#6 – “You must remember that International free agents can be very beneficial.” This is the commandment that Friedman has not mastered, as Friedman’s record with this group is bad (I can’t sugar-coat it). He needs to improve it… by a lot! I think he has by surrounding himself with a better staff of International Scouts and talent Evaluators. The Dodgers have one of the largest (if not THE largest) front office staffs in all of baseball. I think this will emerge as another quality source of players for the Dodgers.
#7 – “You must as many players off the Bone Pile and Dollar General as makes sense“. Probability and statistics are the mathematics used to understand chance and to collect, organize, describe, and analyze numerical data. Talent evaluators need this area of mathematics to help them judge the correctness of forming an argument supported by seemingly persuasive data. Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events.
No one is perfect at this, but Insurance Companies make their money on the Law of Large Numbers to help estimate the value and frequency of future claims they will pay to policyholders. When it works perfectly, insurance companies run a stable business, consumers pay a fair and accurate premium, and the entire financial system avoids serious disruption. However, the theoretical benefits from the law of large numbers do not always hold up in the real world. The same is true with signing players whose value is depreciated by injury or happenstance. Some will pan out some will not.
This offseason the Dodgers have signed or traded for several reclamation projects, namely Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel, Andrew Schwaab, Brandon Morrow, Jimmy Nelson, James Pazos, and Carlos Asuaje. They have obligations of around $10 Million for all of those players… in total! Kahnle is only being paid $750,000 (only) not to play this year as he recovers from surgery, but all of the others have a shot at being good to great. Maybe all, maybe most, will not make it, but if a couple of Dollar General players do, then Friedman might have struck gold as he did with Morrow in the past.
#8 – “You must overstock the Farm System and be loathe to trade Top Prospects.” And keep it that way! The Dodgers have a “Top 5” Farm System and Andrew wants to keep it that way. He will make an occasional trade with prospects, but generally, it’s not the top-prospects. This is a fine balancing act, because to stay relevant in the future, you can’t trade away the future.
#9 – “You must keep a lot of smart people around you at all times.” There is strength in numbers and in a multitude of counselors, there is wisdom. If the Dodgers don’t have the largest Front Office, Analytics, and Scouting Personnel Departments in baseball, then I don’t know who does. Here’s a partial list:
Sr. Vice President, Baseball Operations: Josh Byrnes
Vice President & Assistant General Manager: Jeffrey Kingston
Vice President & Assistant General Manager: Brandon Gomes
Vice President, Scouting: David Finley
Vice President, International Scouting: Ismael Cruz
Vice President, Amateur Scouting: Billy Gasparino
Vice President, Player Personnel: Galen Carr
Sr. Director, Baseball Administration: Ellen Harrigan
Sr. Director, Team Travel: Scott Akasaki
Director, Baseball Operations: Alex Slater
Director, Player Development: William Rhymes
Director, Baseball Resources: Duncan Webb
Director, Baseball Systems Applications: Brian McBurney
Director, Baseball Systems Platform: John Focht
Director, Performance Science: Megan Schroeder
Director, Quantitative Analysis: Scott Powers
Director, Specialized Performance Programs: Eric Potterat
Director, Clubhouse Operations: Alex Torres
Assistant Director, Player Development: Matt McGrath
Assistant Director, Amateur Scouting: Zachary Fitzpatrick
Special Assistant to the President: Chase Utley
Special Assistant to the GM: Raul Ibanez
Special Assistant to the GM: Pat Corrales
Special Assistant, Baseball Operations: Joel Peralta
Special Instructor, Infield : Jose Vizcaino
Senior Developer II, Baseball Systems: Jonathan Funkhouser
Senior Analyst II, Performance Science: David Hill
Senior Scouting Advisor, Dominican Republic: Ralph Avila
Manager, Baseball Strategy: Michael Voltmer
Manager, Baseball Analytics: Ben Zauzmer
Manager, Baseball Operations: Ethan Levitt
Manager, Minor League Administration: Adriana Urzua
Manager, International Scouting: Javier Camps
Manager, Visiting Clubhouse: Mitch Poole
Manager, Umpires Clubhouse: Jerry Turner
Assistant Manager, Clubhouse: Jose Castillo
Coordinator, Minor League Field: Clayton McCullough
Coordinator, Strong Mind Program: AJ LaLonde
Cultural Coordinator, Strong Mind: Leo Ruiz
Coordinator, Minor League Strength & Conditioning: Brian Stoneberg
Coordinator, Minor League Medical: Kevin Orloski
Coordinator, Baseball Contracts & Finance: Albert Gilbert
Coordinator, Baseball Operations: Craig Weinhaus
Coordinator, Major League Video: Chad Chop
Coordinator, Major League Video/Replay: Jonathan Rhymes
Coordinator, Performance Operations: Will Ireton
Coordinator, Professional Scouting: Lucas Geoghegan
Coordinator, Performance Science: Tyler Duncan
Sr. Data Engineer, Baseball Systems: Drew Troxell
Sr. Developer, Baseball Systems: Ryan Casey
Sr. Quantitative Analyst: Nicholas Kapur
Sr. Quantitative Analyst: Jacob Coleman
Developer, Performance Science Applications: Timothy Reen
Sr. Analyst, Performance Science: Jason Gilberg
Quantitative Researcher: Max Weinstein
Biomechanical Quantitative Sr. Analyst: Emilee Fragapane
Quantitative Analyst: Esteban Navarro Garaiz
Quantitative Analyst: Justin Williams
Quantitative Analyst: Yuji Akimoto
Biomechanical Quantitative Analyst: Theodore Vandenberg
Analyst, Baseball Operations: Pat O’Shea
Analyst, Baseball Operations: Sam Elias
Assistant, Baseball Operations: Lizzy Pintarich
Assistant, Player Development: Mac Lozer
Assistant, Player Development: James Weilbrenner
That is an impressive list and I do not believe any other team has made that kind of financial commitment to excellence in Scouting, Analytics, and Player Development.
#10 – “You must absolutely Win World Championships.” This is the only commandment that contains the words “must absolutely.” Under Friedman, the Dodgers should have two World Championships, were it not for the cheating Asstericks. However, they do have one and are going for some more.
Watch Out for The Padres
Yesterday the Padres went on a shopping spree and ended up with three key players, or what appears to be. They signed Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim and traded for Yu Darvish, his personal catcher Victor Caratini, and Blake Snell. The four prospects the Padres gave up were going to be ranked #15, #17, #18, and #20 by Baseball America. They also gave up a solid back-of-the-rotation righthander in Zach Davies. To get Snell, the Padres gave up three more prospects, and Francisco Mejia who has 458 MLB at-bats and while he was once a Top Prospect, is still only 25.
Kim only costs money, but I am not high on him. I think he is utilityman at best, and the Padres say that Cronenworth will say at 2B while Joel Sherman says that Kim will go to 2B and Cronenworth will go to LF. Few Korean stars have come to the US and dominated. I remain unimpressed! Darvish and Snell are an improvement but I do not think they are “Cy Young” good. Still, if Kim can hit and field, adding these three players made the Padres a much better team, at the cost of eight prospects. The Rays got 4 very good players and Keith Law wrote this in The Athletic:
The Rays get a big haul in return, as they should, with Snell three years from free agency and under contract to earn $40.8 million over those seasons. They landed the Padres’ No. 2 pitching prospect, right-hander Luis Patiño; catcher Francisco Mejía, once a top-10 overall prospect who has not hit at all in the majors; catching prospect Blake Hunt, blocked in the Padres’ system by Luis Campusano; and 2020 draft pick Cole Wilcox, a first-round talent whom the Padres took in the third round and signed with first-round money.…The Rays made a damn good baseball trade here, but baseball is worse off for it.
The Padres still have several very good prospects, and while they did not “gut” the farm, they did diminish it’s depth. Make no mistake, the Padres are a team to be reckoned with. The Dodgers are in for a battle in 2021, and now we are about to see Andrew Friedman counter. In most years, he would not violate Commandments #5 or #8, but this is not most years and I think Andrew and the Dodger Brass like the taste of Champagne.
At this juncture, no one can predict what Friedman will do and he doesn’t have to do much, but I think he will. It won’t likely be Arenado or Lindor or Bauer, but with Friedman, you can never say never. I can’t see DJLM coming to LA and Friedman won’t give him 5 years, but he would be a fit. I still like a Suarez/Gray deal with the Reds. It would take some prospects, but maybe this is the time to give a few up.
The key thing that Andrew Friedman will not do is Panic! It’s time for countermoves but it’s not time to panic. Maybe “countermoves” is not the right term. Maybe the moves that Freidman will likely make would have been the same moves he makes anyway. I have no way of knowing. I am sure that David Price will be back and that makes the Dodgers better.
The glaring need they have is a RH power bat and a third-baseman. I would like to have Justin Turner back, but I don’t think he can be counted upon for more than 110 games… possibly not that many. A platoon of Rios and Turner at 3B could be very productive, but can Andrew count on that? A lot of teams are hurting and while the Dodgers lost a boatload of money in 2020 due to the Pandemic, the Dodgers could choose to go big in 2021 and exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold.
The fact, that Friedman has not signed any of the free agents frees up a great deal of money to make a Blockbuster deal and exceed the LTT if needed. Maybe he makes a few small moves until the start of the season because as some teams drop out of contention they are going to want some payroll relief and maybe that’s when Freidman pounces.
There are no guarantees in this business. The Padres may have “won” the offseason, but they still have to play the game. Even without Justin Turner, I believe the Dodgers have a better lineup than the Padres. They have better pitching and they have better depth, but the Padres may have closed the gap quite a bit.
Andrew will stick to his Ten Commandments and we will wait and see what (if anything) happens. Now is not the time to make a knee-jerk move. The farm system is loaded with players who are getting close to being ready for the show. Of the current Top 10 Dodger Prospects, the only players I would rule out making the club in 2021 are Diego Cartaya and Luis Rodriguez. All the other TOP 10 Prospects (Gray, Ruiz, Hoese, Busch, Miller, Beeter, White, and Amaya) could see action on the MLB level in 2021. I am not saying all of them will, just that they could. Zach McKinstry seems to be on track to be the utilityman but you never know. I would even rule out Cody Thomas and DJ Peters.
As you know, I am ambivalent about Gavin Lux, but I hope he becomes a beast – if he is ready, he has to play! The same is true with Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, and even Keibert Ruiz. Don’t be surprised if Edwin Uceta, Gerardo Carrillo, or Ryan Pepiot emerge as MLB-Ready pitchers. But, to get a talent like Suarez or Gray, it is going to hurt, just like it hurt to give up Alex Verdugo.
The Dodgers Plan
Of course, I really don’t know what Andrew Friedman will do. He rarely consults me… OK, HE NEVER CONSULTS ME, but I do like this idea (the same one I floated above):
The Dodgers trade a package of players built around Gavin Lux for Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray. Suarez is signed for the next 5 years at $10-15 Million per year when he will be 33. That’s what I call a “perfect trade.” He gives them a slugger who is seven years younger than Turner. I am not against re-signing JT, but only at the right price. He can DH (when the opportunity occurs), pinch-hit, spell Suarez and Muncy and be the Chase Utley of the Dodgers. If he signs with Toronto, both he and Toronto will regret it. A two-year $16 to $18 million deal is about right. He can work for the Dodgers for the next 25 years if he wants.
Sonny Gray is signed for the next three years at $10 to 12 Million Per year. I want him as a #4 or #5 starter. My Top Four starters are Kershaw, Buehler, Price, and one of Urias, May, or Gonsolin. The other two go to the bullpen for a year or two. Many MLB players believe David Price will be the Comeback Player of the Year after a mediocre season in 2019 and missing the 2020 season entirely.
Suarez fits nicely in a LH-heavy lineup:
- Betts (R) RF
- Seager (L) SS
- Smith (R) C
- Muncy (L) 1B
- Suarez (R) 3B
- Bellinger (L) CF
- Pollock/Raley (L-R) LF
- Taylor/McKinstry (L-R) 2B
Every spot in that lineup is capable of delivering 30+ Home Runs. The 8 hole is the most questionable in regards to power. CT3 is playing for a new deal. This is his first chance at big payday. I look for him to play like his hair is on fire!
That’s my dream, but what does Andrew Friedman and the Dodger Brass see? Go back and review his Ten Commandments and maybe you might have a clue, because I sure don’t!
Discussion (100)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Now SHE is worth showing off! Should we put Lux in the Will Smith column? Lux will be a future all star!
Don’t you just hate people who show off their new granddaughters?
There are lots of sellers right about now and they will be more at the trade deadline.
I know I am in the minority here, but I think Hoese and Busch will both be better than Gavin Lux (overall).
Ruiz and Gray are still elite. Cartaya is intriguing but I can’t formulate an opinion… yet!
Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas have something you can’t teach – POWER!
Edwin Uceta could break with the team in Spring Training.
I remember a guy drafted in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft who put it all together in 1993 and hit 35 HR’s, and never looked back! Mike Piazza was not highly athletic or even a great defensive catcher, but man-o-man, could he mash! Busch and Hoese are of that ilk. Piazza was 24 when he broke out. Hoese and Busch are right there with him. The conventional thinking was that Cody Bellinger was at least a year away when he suddenly became the Rookie of the Year! You never know…
I hope I am wrong about Lux and you all come back and rub my face in it. I just call it the way I see it.
All of the Dodger infielders hit left handed. Simply because they list Taylor as an outfielder. They currently have 9 LH hitting position players. One of those is a switch hitter. The RH bats are Betts, Barnes, Pollock, Peters, Smith and Taylor. Ruiz is the switch hitter and everyone else hits from the left side. SO, a RH bat or two would be nice. I am not sold on Reks, or Raley to crack the roster and it would not be surprising to me to see them swap one of their LH hitting infielders for a righty. . The bullpen needs to be addressed at the back end. The middle looks pretty good. Starting pitching is at the discretion of Friedman. Is he satisfied with the quality of his pitchers, or does he feel the need for an upgrade. If so, who does he target? It might be someone who has not even been mentioned. Or some one completely under the radar. Smoak and Thames signing with the Yomuri Giants. Santana signed to a minor league deal by the Royals. I saw a video of the kid the Dodgers got for Stripling. Williams? Kid has some serious size to him. If he puts it all together he could be a monster.
I wonder what we would have to give up for one year rental for Chris Bryant? Based on Darvish not much and if healthy he could be due for a big bounce back year. He could give us some 3b and lf if Pollock gets injured. Still would want Turner back. That’s two big righty bats for all those Padre left handers. And a closer. That would be piggish!
Mark–Great Post.
Also great comments from everybody.
Friedman might have tried to make a trade or two but teams didn’t like the Dodger prospects enough to do the trade. The Dodgers, according to Jeff, only have two prospects grading out at 55 or higher.
Rios could be a late blooming stud, or not and yet he is for now penciled in at third.
The Dodgers held on to Lee until he had little value and Friedman got lucky when he traded Lee for Taylor. Who might he be holding onto now that will lose value in 2021?
If the Dodgers don’t splurge on Bauer or Hindricks or trade for Arenado they will have the payroll flexibility to sign multiple free agents next offseason including two of Story, Lindor, Seager as Kershaw and Jansen will not be on the payroll, at least not at their current cost.
The biggest problem with standing pat and putting Rios at third is the lack of righty bats in the lineup, especially if Lux wins the second base gig. If they trade for Bryant it will not impact 2022 as Bryant would be a one year rental.
December 2019, did anybody have any idea about Victor Gonzales. AF and front office know a lot that we do not know. Patience. Patience…..
Probably in the minority here, but I would have liked to see Darvish come back to the Dodgers. I think he got too much blame when we lost to Houston along with Clayton. But have no idea who he would replace. My New Years wish is most of the players be back on the team, Lux at 2nd, Smith catching, and Caleb healing. Make it so, please, Mr Friedman.
How does anyone know who has a top minor league system? The lack of a minor league season pretty much means that such ratings are meaningless.
It’s nice to know someone agrees with me.
This was written by Dodger Horse:
“I hope Freidman builds a strong bullpen so there is no need to bring Julio all over the place in October, he has to be a starter and form a fearsome October pairing with Buehler.”
like it or not Julio Urias bailed out/saved the bullpen’s ass in the 2020 playoffs.
Haven’t written anything in a long time but I just wanted to commend everyone on this site for the excellence of this topic’s coverage. If there was ever any doubt about what is the best Dodger site on the internet, this article settles that argument once and for all, I love reading the diverse ideas expressed on LADT, even those with which I disagree. KUDOS and my appreciation to all of you. GO DODGERS 2021.
As usual Jeff a fantastic look at what we have at the minor league level and how we compare to our competition. When you read in the final paragraph of all the players the Dodgers that have graduated to the big club it’s incredible. Eventually, the reduction in talent in the minors will catch up with the team. It just has too. Constantly drafting at the end of rounds doesn’t make it easy. I think where AF has failed big time in the past is in the international market. That seems to have vastly improved in the last 3 years. Looking around at MLB current rising stars many are from the international market. And, none were signed by the Dodgers. Unfortunately, AF spent over $100M+ on mentally disturbed, socially deficient, and lacking baseball skilled players from Cuba. But, that’s in the past. The international signings are where the Dodgers can continue feeding their player development system. I feel good about the pipeline being consistently replenished with talent by AF.
Did little research on Garrett Cleavinger and Baseball Prospectus says this:
Funky lefty with a solid fastball that plays a bit above the raw material and a competent secondary. The movement in his delivery creates deception and difficult timing for hitters. It requires moderate effort, though he maintains his balance and repeats well, indicating potential for enough command and control to potentially play at higher levels. His pure stuff isn’t exceptional, but there’s enough deception that there’s potential for him to develop into a capable piece in a major league bullpen, with ability to get both LH and RH hitters out from the left side.
He tops out at 94 MPH… allegedly!
Jeff, won’t those ratings change if the kids actually get a chance to play? Seems to me rating players when they played so little in 2020 is not productive. I know about Gore and some of the others. But you have to think that some of those kids the Dodgers have drafted will be rated higher when they can actually be seen playing. And the International kids they are supposed to get should help some too. A couple of those guys are rated pretty high.
The Dodgers are not a top 5 farm system any longer. They have graduated too many and currently have only two in any top 100 prospect list: Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. And neither of them are in top 60. MiLB Pipeline has them regressed all the way to a dreaded #11, and it should decrease even more after the Preseason 2021 are published.
2019 preseason rank #7
2019 midseason rank #3
2020 preseason rank #3
2020 midseason rank #11
Included as top 100 prospects to get the #11 ranking were Gavin Lux (#2), Josiah Gray (#71), Keibert Ruiz (#77), and Brusdar Graterol (#90). Lux and Graterol have both graduated leaving only Gray and Ruiz in the top 100.
The same is true with Baseball America, except they did rank the Dodgers #5 because they also had Tony Gonsolin in the top 100. He too has graduated, leaving only Gray and Ruiz who are not top 50 candidates.
When FanGraphs completes their organizational reviews, they will also have the Dodgers down to two in their top 100.
Bottom line is that the Dodgers are now in the dreaded middle third of the farm systems. Not enough elite talent to draw from to become a star at the next level, and not low enough to get top draft picks.
The Dodgers are now considered to have the #3 farm system in the NL West. SD and Arizona both have better ranked systems, and the Giants are coming fast. The top Dodger prospect is Gray who has a ceiling as a #3, but will likely become a #4 or #5, or a late inning reliever. That is a far cry from MacKenzie Gore who has ACE as his ceiling, and probably no worse than a #2. The Padres were ranked #2 overall with 5 top 100 prospects, and are now down to 4 (losing Patino), three in the top 50. I think I would take Snell over Patino. There is CJ Abrams as the #24 overall prospect and #5 SS. Luis Campusano is a higher rated catcher than Ruiz. He is the overall #46 prospect and #3 catcher. Ruiz has gone from as high as #3, down to #6 in the catcher rankings.
The 2020 draft will help, but they have yet to take a professional AB or throw a professional pitch. By the time that Bobby Miller or Clayton Beeter or Michael Busch or Kody Hoese are ready to be considered for top 100 Gray will have graduated and Ruiz will either have graduated or been dropped as he has continually been doing. Diego Cartaya and Luis Rodriguez need to play. Rodriguez has still not taken a professional AB. At least one reputable publication (FanGraphs) does not consider Hoese to be a top 100 candidate, much less prospect. I have not seen enough of him, so I need to rely on the publications for their assessment. I think most publications think of Hoese as a DH. Most publications consider Busch to be closer to top 100 because of his hit tool and plate discipline, but still does not have a position, and has a grade 40 arm and 45 run. That is generally not top 100 candidates. Busch is going to need to play a significant number of games at 2B to be considered at the elite level.
It always intrigues when I read when some fans are ready to give up on Lux after a poor 2020, but had far superior scouting grades, and are now ready to put Hoese in the lineup this year after all of 147 professional ABs. The same with Busch and all of his 24 professional ABs. Neither Hoese nor Busch (nor Miller not Beeter nor Amaya), will make the 26 man roster at any point in the season. If they do, the Dodgers will not be amongst the elite. Gray may make a start, but he is really #8 on SP list THIS year. Gonsolin and White are ahead of him. Maybe even Jimmy Nelson if he can make a comeback. That is not giving up on Gray, that is just saying he is not ready to be a ML starting pitcher in 2021. Ruiz will get called up in September, and will make the roster when Smith or Barnes goes to the IL. White will bounce back and forth depending on the number of pitchers that will need to be placed on the IL and whether any of Morrow, Nelson, or Pazos can make a comeback. You can be a big Mitch White fan, but that will not change White’s ceiling as a #4 or #5 starting pitcher on an average team; #6 or #7 on the Dodgers. Mitch White is finally healthy, and if he can get a full season at AAA this year as a starter, maybe he gets to that next level of a #3.
I appreciate Dodger fans loving their prospects. I most certainly do!!! But you need to compare them to other organizations top prospects at the same position. I follow all of MiLB…from the DSL to AAA. I was writing about Alex Bregman before most Houston fans knew who he was. MiLB is a passion of mine, and as much as I would love to see every Dodger prospect become a Dodger regular, that just is not possible. THE FARM SYSTEM HAS DONE ITS JOB. Kershaw, Pederson, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Urias, Verdugo, Smith, Barnes (he was not a Dodger draft pick, but he was developed in the Dodger system), Rios, Beaty, May, Gonsolin, Ferguson, VGon, KJ, Baez, White, Santana, Sborz, McKinstry. How much more can you ask of a farm system…the core and depth.
DODGERS ACQUIRE LHP GARRETT CLEAVINGER
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired left-hander pitcher Garrett Cleavinger from the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-way exchange with Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Dodgers will send minor league infielder Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations to Tampa Bay, while the Rays will send left-handed pitcher José Alvarado to Philadelphia to complete the transaction.
Cleavinger, 26, made his Major League debut last season for the Phillies, tossing 0.2 innings with one strikeout on September 17 against the Mets. In five minor league seasons with the Phillies, he posted a 19-12 record with a 4.08 ERA (100 ER/220.1 IP) and 294 strikeouts in 140 games. He spent all of 2019 with Double-A Reading, appearing in 34 games, striking out 83 batters in 51.2 innings, while recording a 3-2 record. He was originally drafted in the third round of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Oregon. In three seasons with the Ducks, he went 18-4 with a 1.94 ERA (25 ER/116.0 IP) and 172 strikeouts against 59 walks, including Freshman All-America honors after going 9-0 with a 1.24 ERA in 37 relief appearances.
Paulson, 23, played in 175 minor league games for the Dodgers, batting a combined .253 (162-for-640) with 26 homers and 125 RBI. In 2019, he split the season between Low-A Great Lakes and High-A Rancho Cucamonga, batting .243 (101-for-416) with 16 homers and 64 RBI. He was originally drafted in the 13th round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Southern California.
Dodgers get Clevinger, no not that one, Garrett Clevinger a LH reliever from the Phillies in a 3 way deal with the Rays. Phils getting Jose Alvarado from the Rays, and Rays getting Dillon Paulson and a PTBNL from LA. Not earth shattering. Clevinger has pitched just .2 innings in the majors. looks to be nothing more than a depth move.
I like the discussion above on who is an Ace. I think, not including the 60 game sprint in 2020, it can be defined 2 ways:
1) regular season ace, who gives u 200 innings, is an All Star, can stop a losing streak, and gives your bullpen a break when he starts.
2) post season ace: who you give the ball to, and he’ll give you 6 dominant innings in October.
Walker Buehler may not yet be a regular season ace, but for this team, who the hell cares. Come October, there isn’t another guy that I want on the mound. And for this team, we just need to get to October, and then we have as good a Game 1 starter as anybody. AND, after seeing the big game stuff from Urias in the big game moments, we might very well have a 2nd guy who you just know will give you Ace Stuff come October.
Report on MLB radio by Vassegh says the Dodgers are talking with LeMahieu’s agents. And he is on their radar. One reporter put better than most, the Padres got two Quali8ty pitchers, How they pan out remains to be seen. The only in season action Snell has against the Dodgers came a few years ago and he pitched only 2 innings. Darvish also has only pitched in one regular season game against the Dodgers and he went 7 innings. Nobody has a clue how these two will pan out. We ALL have to wait and see.
Sonny Gray was great with the small market A’s, then blah with the major market Yanks, then very good with the small market Reds. Not worth the gamble here in this market.
Suarez would be a good acquisition but if you want to add a pitcher to that trade go hard after Luis Castillo who is 3 years younger than Gray, a much better pitcher and is making less money.
Two best teams in baseball are probably in the NL West, and they ain’t the Giants, Rockies or Diamondbacks.
Preller made some major moves without gutting the San Diego farm. Their window is wide open for at least the next three years given the quantity and quality of players under control for at least that duration. They still have arms coming up that could be upgrades too. No doubt NL West will be a dog fight.
The 3 game sweep of the Padres in the division series will probably for shadow LA/SD games for the next few years: close and hard fought. That was when Padres didn’t have their best starters and without Snell and Darvish. So if future games are going to be similar, I hope Friedman makes a few more moves to bulk up the bull pen. The low risk/high reward fliers are fine to start, as they have born fruit in the past. But I’d be really happy if they signed both Hendricks and Hand.
Turner may or may not be back. I doubt Pollack gets traded, so 3rd Base or maybe 2nd is where they could squeeze in a big bat. Chapman from Oakland or Suarez from Cincinnati should work well.
Maybe they try a monster move with Cleveland:
Lux, Ruiz, Gray, DJ Peters, Cody Thomas, Gerardo Carrillo
For: Shane Bieber and Ramirez. Or take a prospect or two off and get Lindor.
Very unlikely, but another Ace and stud left side infielder.
Something will happen. The bullpen will change and another bat will come.
I’d expect a big move at the trade deadline moreso than off-season. Maybe if Nationals are out they trade Scherzer…
The Padres went on a shopping spree like I do when I’m a little drunk on Amazon. I buy stuff I don’t necessarily need, and sometimes find that the quality is lacking. Not so much where I send the item back, but much less enthusiastic about it when it arrives than I was when I made the purchase.
All three of these “Blockbuster” moves have their warts. Darvish, just a year younger than David Price who was a throw in in the Mookie trade, is a toss-up with Price as far as the future holds. Do you think Darvish is all the sudden fixed after 12 starts in a short season? Or, will he be back to mediocrity as he was during his last several seasons? I have more faith in Price who owned us in the 18 World Series, now that he’s had the cyst removed from his wrist.
Snell looked great against the Dodgers as most left handers do. Snell is entering his prime years at age 28 next season. Are the Padres going to pull him in the 6th each game, or is he going to be a top of the rotation innings eater after never doing so? Snell is a very good piece, but he’s not an Ace, not yet.
Is Kim a utility guy or a starting first team second baseman? Jung-ho Kang was a splash with the Pirates for his first two years, then sucked, now he’s back in Korea. Kang was a better hitter in Korea than Kim. I have doubts that Kim is as good as Chris Taylor.
Sure, there’s some upside here, but two of the guys they got would probably be ranked out of a starting job on the Dodgers. I’m not sure many of us would welcome Darvish back after his post-season meltdown against the Cheetos. And I wouldn’t block May or Urias for Snell. I think May, Urias and Snell are all around the same caliber pitcher with youth on Urias and May’s side. I would have been much more concerned had they signed DJLM and Trevor Bauer, a stud that averages 7 innings with a .795 WHIP last year playing in a band box.
AF certainly has an opportunity to be pigs and relegate the Padres to yesterday’s new status if he’s motivated to do so. Hopefully, the Padres did just that. Go get Bauer and Bryant, or Nolan and make the Padres fans cry a little, like the red-headed step child on Christmas day…
With that line of thinking William I guess we would have to trade for Snell and sign Bauer, Springer, Reamulto and DJL so our competitors wont get better. AF’s eyes are on the Dodgers not the Padres. He won’t change his approach based on what other teams are doing. If Belly and Muncy return to 2019 form that will be our biggest improvement!
Just think, if the Dodgers had managed to obtain Snell, we would not need to be concerned with the Padres possibly being better than the Dodgers. That would have been a preemptive move on our part, helping us, while keeping a very good pitcher away from our chief divisional rival. You don’t want to try to win a pennant from a Wild Card spot ,though of course it has been done. You don’t want to go into a playoff series where the other team may have a better pitching staff than you do. The one thing the Dodgers almost always had in their various pennant runs, was superior pitching. But by consistently refusing to add a top pitcher from another team, they have ended up depending on their farm system to make it up. Yes, we do have Price, but I think he was simply a necessary part of the trade to get Betts, as Boston wanted to dump his salary.
I have wanted for the Dodgers to be more proactive. They may make a move or two, but what pitcher is out there that we want? Bauer, but most here insist that we are not spending that money. Snell was already locked into his salary. The Padres wanted him, they went out and got him. They also managed to pick up Darvish, not that I wanted him, but he always has the potential to have a big year. I don’t see what the risk to the Dodgers was in trying hard to acquire Snell, other than that they absolutely hate to give up any top ten prospects in their system. This is the main reason that we have not been able to consummate such trades. Sometimes it turns out to b e warranted, but we sometimes end up keeping a player who would have brought a good deal more when he was a touted prospect. Pederson is an example,and also consider what we might have gotten a year or two ago in a package which included Lux. But we will never trade our highest-end prospects, that seems to be a basic rule of this ownership. Some baseball person , maybe Theo Epstein, was quoted as saying, “prospects are just prospects.” We can disagree with the implications, but we don’t have to hoard every one of our top prospects, either. I don’t like the potential that the Padres will in two years have a decidedly better pitching staff than the Dodgers. What are the Dodgers going to do to upgrade their starting staff, if it becomes necessary? Well, maybe May and Urias will become great pitchers, and we will not have to.
Mark, you violate rule #8 by trading Lux. The key to sustained success of the franchise is to draft, develop and plug your top prospects into your lineup every year. That’s the key that keeps your payroll balanced and flexible. I will be shocked if Lux is traded. Verdugo was the exception to get the 2nd best player in the game and I don’t think he had the “Dodger attitude” to be a long term option.
Fantastic article Mark!
The Suarez/Gray trade is a good fit for the Dodgers in that it solves the 3B/RHB need and provides quality starting pitching for about $20 million per year. And each player is under team control for at least 3 years. However, I would not give up Lux as in my view he still has huge upside. In the 2020 disjointed season, it is very difficult to assess player performance. Sure Lux struggled, but so did many players including Suarez who had batting average of .202 in 2020. At the beginning of 2020 season, Fangraphs had Lux as the second best prospect in the entire MLB. He did not forget how to play baseball in the last 9 months! He was likely impacted by the four month layoff and a reported Covid delay in his return. In my view, Lux has a chance to be an all star middle infielder with athleticism and power that are rare for a player who just turned 23.
Given the recent salary dumping trades by the Reds, Rays and the Cubs, there are likely to be many teams looking to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds would likely be willing to part with Suarez contract for mid level prospects, and the Cubs would likely trade Bryant primarily for just the $19 million salary relief. Both struggled last year, but they each have tremendous power, and each had OPS over 900 in 2019.
I would prefer to keep Lux, sign JT, and trade for either Suarez or Bryant. There should be plenty of at bats at either DH, 3B, LF, or 1B to play Bryant or Suarez. At this point Sonny Gray is more of an insurance policy that will require significant prospects. If necessary due to injury, a quality starter will be available at the trade deadline from teams looking to further reduce payroll.
My rationale in taking Sonny Gray is two-fold. The Reds want to cut salary and Gray does that and allows the Dodgers to include fewer prospects. It also strengthens the bullpen with another live arm there.
Sonny Gray isn’t bad at all. He’s also not great at all. He’d be a nice #4 or a great 5 (or a 3 on an average team). But not someone you’d be happy about starting in October.
If you tell me that in 2021, Sonny Gray and Tony Gonsolin will get the same number of starts, I’d bet that Gonsolin puts up better numbers. And is way cheaper. There is absolutely zero reason or need for Sonny Gray to be on this team. He just is not needed. We have younger, more talented guys who deserve the 4 or 5 spot in May and Gonsolin. No need for them to be blocked by a Sonny Gray type.
We have two very brave pitt bulls for October, two guys that become Orel and Koufax in October, they are Buehler and Julio, two very difficult guys to beat when the lights are brightest, no MLB team has that, they will be very difficult to overcome, they will be a headache for the rest of MLB in October, they will continue to give us many joys.
I hope Freidman builds a strong bullpen so there is no need to bring Julio all over the place in October, he has to be a starter and form a fearsome October pairing with Buehler.
For the Dodgers nothing has changed, they in their own way, they should continue looking for their right bat and strengthen the bullpen and already on the date of changes add whatever is necessary, I am a fan of Luis “la piedra” Castillo and I I wish it was a Dodger.
Excellent article Mark. But like all of the commandments, some will be broken. I think the owners and FO will look at what SD did, analyze it, and then form a plan. Does Friedman even feel he needs to make a counter move. I am more of the mind that AF will address what he feels are the needs of the team. And we all know what they are. RH power, back end of the pen, and actually a good RH bat off of the bench. Also, I do not rate Raley as high as you do. It would be quite a leap for him to make the 26 man roster in a platoon role. Pollock tied for the team lead in homers in a 60 game season. I think he has enough pop out there to counter any LH hitter they use. The roster right now is sitting at 37, with one spot that will open when they can place Ferguson on the IL. There are 9 left handed hitters on the roster, well one of them, Ruiz , is a switch hitter. All of the infielders on the roster are lefty hitters since they list Taylor as an outfielder. I also think Zack Reks has as much of a chance to crack the roster as Raley. But that is just me. The period between now and spring training is going to be interesting. I would not put it past AF to analyze this, and then make a block buster of his own.
Well Mark, you put a lot of thought into this piece. Fun read.
Absolutely no one should sit on their laurels, the Dodgers included. Change, if done right, can be a positive. That said, I’m not sure what the Dodgers should do moving forward. I would have liked to see them trade for Blake Snell, just saw him as a potential difference maker. Oh well.
That’s what we’re really looking for, isn’t it? As it stands now, the Dodgers can put an incredibly good team on the field with some exceptional starting pitching and some young arms capable of rising to the next level. I can see Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and Dustin May doing just that in 2021. Urias has already made that jump.
So what about David Price. Not certain why he sat out, underlying health condition? Family concerns? Not sure what he will be if he plays. Seems likely, but … Dave Roberts indicated that wasn’t a certainty. If he does play, he could be very good or inconsistent, bordering on mediocre. I’m thinking he helps. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him opt out again. Obviously Friedman has a better idea of what will happen, but I’m sure he was surprised with the opt out last season.
I agree with the 10 commandments as listed. The Achilles Heal was international and the Dodgers learned quickly that throwing money at it didn’t solve much. They seem to be more focused and approaching it differently now.
I’m not sure the college versus high school stuff works. Better to just pursue opportunity. You can find success with both.
You could be right that Suarez and Gray is the right move, maybe I’m not being logical, but I really like Justin Turner. If he wasn’t there I would feel like something was missing. I still think the bullpen is the biggest opportunity for improvement. Lot of potential on the market.
What I really would like to see is the Dodgers ink Seager long term. Probably not the smart thing to do at the moment. Better to wait and simply outbid everybody else after next season.
Again, an excellent write-up Mark.
I really like that lineup, but would like it better with Lux at second. Let’s see if AF can substitute Hoese or Busch, we don’t need Gray and there’s no point signing JT if you have a 3B stud. Also, let’s just go ahead and stop putting a “/” next to Pollock.
I think Nr. 5 should be scratched from the list.
If you can sign a proven MLB star or superstar via free agency you should not think one second about the draft pick it will cost you. Draftees are never ever a sure thing, matter of fact most of them never pan out let alone become superstars.
I do not like a trade for Sonny Gray. If you want to strengthen the rotation think and act big (hey, we are THE DODGERS) and go for Trevor Bauer on a one year contract as he reportedly is looking for from a true contender .
If you do not like to give up a draft pick for a free agent star why give up a good prospect (and the Reds will look for one or two for Gray) for a mid rotation pitcher ? If you dont go for Trevor Bauer. I would rather see May in the rotation then someone like Gray. Suarez is a different story. He would make a ton of sense but it will cost a heavy price and if that price tag should include May I would decline.
Overall the Dodgers will have to improve their roster if they want to keep their lead on the Padres and stay ahead of the Braves. Staying pad will not be enough.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fantastic article Mark. On paper, the Padres definitely improved their team yesterday. From personal experience we know that Darvish can be wildly inconsistent and has trouble in high pressure situations. Snell had that outstanding game 6 against us in the World Series and many have based their opinion of him on that outing. I agree with Bear in that he is a solid #2/3, but is not an ace. He’s not consistently lights out (like Kershaw in his prime). Not even close. Throw out last year where he only pitched 50 innings, he has had only one season where is has won more games than lost. That was his Cy Young season where he only pitched 180 innings and averaged 5.8 innings per start. He may have won the CY that year, but that is not an “ace” worthy effort in my mind. Without the Rays having a strong BP the results wouldn’t have been what they were. And with Kim, it’s hard to get excited about most likely a utility player. And, what about their BP? That could be a major issue for SD. So, enough about the Padres’ acquisitions. Like I said looks good on paper, but they play the game on the field. Let’s see what happens.
Mark, I like the trade idea with the Reds for Gray and Suarez. It’s been mentioned before and I think it’s a solid move for the Dodgers. It gives us continued power at 3B (actually improved) and depth in our rotation. It would allow AF to have May and Gonsolin in the BP and available for the rotation when a starter gets injured (which will happen). Many say that we have plenty of starting pitching and we might…until we don’t. We have the prospects to make this happen and it’s not a budget buster. I say do it. If the DH is available in 2021 then another move could be Nelson Cruz. He seems to be ageless and can’t stop hitting 40+ HRs a year. Mark, I like your projected lineup. Your concern with the possible lack of power from Taylor/McKinstry is no big deal when you look at the rest of the lineup. They might get 15-20 HRs from that position which still very good.
So, I guess we’ll have to wait until 2021 to get any action from AF, but that’s OK. It’s going to be fun and interesting on what he does to improve the team.
I like your concept of these 10 Commandments. A good GM has to have a strategy other than ” do whatever you can afford to improve this years team”.
Besides resigning JT the Dodgers need a guy to fill a role like David Freese did. Right handed bat to play some 1st, 3rd and OF. Negotiations for trades take time and AF keeps them under the radar but I believe he’s in multiple discussions not only for that player but also for more bullpen help.