Rant Rave Saturday

Is it possible that we need both the human eye and the stat WAR to truly evaluate a player?

Both seem benificial.

There are probably only a few posters here (I’m not one of them) who understand how WAR is computed, the differences between WAR computation, and exactly how valid the calculation really is.

I am troubled by certain aspects of WAR – for example, pitchers strikeouts are a big deal, so a low K out getter (like Tommy John, Claude Osteen,and just about every soft-tossing left-handed sinker pitcher you’ve ever watched) gets lower WAR than a K machine who is less successful at actually preventing runs. There is a certain modern bias that is reflected in WAR that troubles me.

WAR is just OK as a starting point as far as i a concerned. I agree with JC – it’s data, but it’s not an end all or be all. Part of the modern preference for computer analysis over the eyeball test also troubles me. There are lots of ways to analyse players – I wouldn’t rely too heavily on WAR.

re: “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.”

Hopefully the same isn’t true with lies although it is trending.

Dallas Keuchel signs with White Sox for 3years, $55mil. I’d guess that’s a starting point for Ryu’s next deal

When my check engine light went on I always thought it was a bad bulb. I guess that’s why they had to tow my car away when I donated it last month!

”Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe.

No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is

the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried“ – Winston Churchill

I’m perpetually amazed at fans opinions regarding WAR. That if it does not perfectly quantify everything it is therefore useless. As if MLB executives blindly make decisions on a single stat spit out by some magic black box with an algorithm designed entirely to ruin baseball.

Statistics are information. Nothing more. WAR is designed to aggregate a large number of statistics into a uniform standard number. Kind of like when you got a report card as a kid. It did not contain 15 pages of every quiz, test, homework assignment and project completed in every single class. Those grades were weighted, averaged and compiled into a single letter grade. And all those letter grades were used to calculate GPA. Is GPA a perfect reflection of a students abilities? It’s not. Nor was is ever meant to be. But the college admission department at a university isn’t going to read your crappy book report from your freshman year about The Grapes of Wrath. They’re going to start with your GPA, SAT scores and work from there.

A statistic like WAR, BABIP and the like provide additional information. Nothing more. They are a means to BEGIN the process of digging deeper, not the end.

AD (or any other executive) would be an absolute fool to not embrace any and all statistical data that can provide additional insight into any aspect of the game. Not to do so would be insane.

But no, I hear fans complain about WAR and advanced stats as though AD just let’s some algorithm make decisions for him. “Uh oh, computer says Puig sucks now. Better make a trade”

Because that’s how it works. Just like when your check engine light goes on. You must head directly to the junk yard and dispose of that car. Immediately buy a new one. But wait, you say check engine lights don’t mean your car is in danger of an imminent, massive explosion? Well then, they must be completely ignored because they are useless.

That’s kinda the same logic.

More information is never a bad thing.

Perhaps the hitting coaches can work with Seager , Bellinger, and Pollock to train them to hit the pitching that they may face in the playoffs. In other words guys that can throw secondary pitches for strikes early in the count. And to somehow figure out that once you are behind in the count you will be getting the slider in the dirt, not the fastball.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.12up.com/amp/posts/irving-piken-oldest-living-man-united-states-brooklyn-dodgers-fan-01dwj3f6zyef

Bums, teams pay for future projected performance not past performance. If that was the case then the Albert Pujos’ contract would have been justified.

I would like to see in the next MLBPA players agreement use of a version of WAR as the basis of players salaries including rookies.

Maybe a team could offer a free agent $20M if his WAR falls between 4 and 5 while another team would only offer $18M. Non free agents would earn a salary based on their end of year WAR.

That pay plan shares the risk of performance and nonperformance equally between players and owners.

Okay, I’m not a fan of patience.

Hit it, let it fly and don’t look back. But I do understand that sometimes you need to pace the market. The trade market has been slow to wake up, maybe that’s why we need a deadline at the winter meetings. Hey, trades are fun and it gives the MLB writers and analysts more to talk about than some team just gave some player a $200 or $300 million contract.

While everybody can sit on the porch and chew, spit and argue until the cows come home, now the discussion comes down to the validity of WAR. Of course this is just a comfort zone to place value on a baseball player. Did we really need defensive analytics to tell us that Cody Bellinger was an incredibly good defensive right fielder? Or Mike Trout really hits a baseball hard? Or Gerrit Cole had a great 2019 season?

Did Bill James actually make Baseball a better game to watch with all the data? Did the Boston Red Sox actually win the World Series because of the analytics and data that James generated? Did they use that same data to sign Carl Crawford? Did the Cubs use data to sign Jason Heyward? Actually they did. How did that work out? Does WAR explain Howie Kendrick?

Did the Dodgers sign AJ Pollock because of WAR or other data? No, they didn’t. They had watched him come up with big hits and good defensive plays for years. The same reason I wanted them to sign him. He terrorized the Dodgers. As for the injuries, AF said they were freakish in nature, not a reoccurring type of injury, like a back or balky shoulder.

I like the signing, some don’t. I consider the second half, but also remember how good AJ played against the Dodgers. Then I look at the big hits, homeruns, key hits with runners on base in the second half.

I’m not sure what to make of the Donaldson rumors. Are the Dodgers still in, were they ever really in on the third baseman. Makes no sense. A 34 year old on a three or four year deal to replace a 35 year old, who has clutch hitting skills.

Then there is this: David Vassegh, the Dodger Talk host and a regular on Sportsnet, the Dodgers TV show, said that Mookie Betts isn’t going to be traded, according to his sources in Boston. Lindor? He said Ryu really likes LA and wants to return to the Dodgers, but the potential length of the deal may prevent that from happening. There is concern about Ryu’s injury history and the team would prefer a higher annual dollar amount and less years. He could end up in Anaheim, he suggested.

He also mentioned Nick Castellanos as a potential target, which should make Mark happy, but said the Dodgers would need to clean up an overcrowded outfield to make that feasible. He suggested the way the Dodgers position outfielders would help with defensive deficiencies.

Now Vassegh has some insight into the Dodgers so take it for what it’s worth.

AF is not trading Lux for anybody for 1-2 years of control nor should he. Boston is gonna have a tough time dumping Price and if they determine they can’t win next year and they can’t then they have to deal Betts to reduce payroll. We have the depth of minor league talent to get a deal done without giving up our top prospects and the financial room to take Betts on. I can’t believe there are too many teams that can match that..Same for Lindor. I’d do a depth offer outside our top 4 guys and if it doesn’t fly move on.

So, I’m not burdened with the knowledge many of you have. I do love the game and the Dodgers (I do have an opinion, however). What this lay person sees when I read MLB about trades ….Lux, May and Ruiz for Lindor?? Cra cra! Anyone who would give up that haul for 2 years shouldn’t be a Dodger executive! Let’s hope not anyway. Let the kids play, release our hounds!!

WAR – A stat that is not precise, rather an estimation of value based on imperfect data and assumptions. lol

A 6 WAR player is worth 5-7? That’s like a 18% rate of error. So a guy with a 3 WAR could be worth 2 WAR and a guy with 1 WAR can be worth 2 WAR. Yeah, that’s useful and it is exactly what I was saying.

I really like the rotation with Bueller, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda with Gonso and Strip backing them up. But, is it enough? Hill just completed a 3 year deal in which he pitched in his age 37-39 year seasons. I don’t have a problem giving Ryu a contract to pitch in his age 33-36 seasons as he will complete his contract younger that Hill began his. On the other hand, I think Urias, May and Gonso all have very high ceilings and velocity seems to play up in the post season. I’m really on the fence here.

I think either Lindor or Betts will be a Dodger next year and that they’re staying “in” on Donaldson as a fall back. This off-season isn’t done yet. I like Clevenger a lot, but I think our three kids all have the stuff that Clevenger has. But, will they be able to be similarly good next year?

I agree that RVS will continue to improve our hitters. We had a great approach for most of season last year, but seemed to tail off towards the end. I also like Bard coming back as the bullpen coach. The big unknown is how Prior will do the with the pitching staff. I’m glad Honey will be around to continue to work with him.

It’s hard to deny that AF is doing a good job. But, you can’t give him an “A” without a Championship especially when his hire keeps messing it up for him. But, there’s more than one right way to build a baseball team and to run a baseball team.

An analogy – many cars come with chips these days that can be tuned for economy or performance. If your goal is to get good gas mileage during a cross country trip, economy would be the proper tune. But, if your goal is to get from point A to point B as fast as possible, you want to performance tune. Let’s see if AF can figure out how to keep his cross-country tune during the regular season, but get the performance tune for the post-season.