We all look at the stats and sometimes believe that the stats tell you “you are what your stats say you are,” and while that is sometimes true, players can grow in their skill set or regress. However, the progression (or regression) is not always linear. Witness one Enrique “Kike” Hernandez. About this time last year (March 15, 2018, to be exact) I wrote this, while referring back to a few months earlier:
On November 2, 2017, still reeling from a World Series loss, I wrote this:
Kike Hernandez is looked at as a “super utilityman” because he can play anywhere… especially SS, but a lot of people are dismissive of his offense. Me? I think there is a possibility that he could be a huge offensive force in the future. Quit laughing and listen to this:
Through age 25, JD Martinez was a utility player who hit a grand total of 24 HR in 899 at-bats. At age 25, Kike Hernandez has accumulated 28 HR in 836 AB’s. At age 26 Martinez worked on transforming his swing much like Justin Turner, Jose Bautisa and Chris Taylor have and grew into the player he is today. The Dodgers could go out and sign JD Martinez or they could let Kike Hernandez grow into a player like JD. I am not saying that he will… but he could! You have to at least consider it.
Kike Hernandez is the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” as he can play just about anywhere. He plays 7 of the 9 positions adeptly and he is the emergency catcher. He can likely throw 95+ MPH so I think there will be a game where he plays all 9 positions at some juncture. But, can he hit RH pitching? It’s no secret that he owns left-handers, hitting .270 against Lefties last year with a .367 OB% and a .946 OPS. He hit 10 HR against LH pitching in 152 at-bats.
He also hit an anemic .159 against RH Pitching. That is a big problem… if it continues. So far, this Spring, it hasn’t! It’s a small sampling, but in Spring Training THIS year, Kike has hit all three of his HR against RH Pitchers and is OPS’ing over 1.300. If he keeps that up, Kike has to be an “Everyday Utilityman,” meaning he will play just about everyday at a different position. Kike got 297 AB’s last year. 400 to 500 would not be out of the question this year. If he gets 500 AB’s he will hit 25-30 HR. It all depends upon how he hits RH pitching.
Kike has immense power and power to the opposite field. As I said, he is capable of hitting 30 HR if he can hit RHP. Last night, he hit a homerun and a double off of the Rockies fireballing-ace, Jon Gray. That is certainly reason for optimism. Kike Hernandez could be one of the most important cogs in the Dodger Machine.
Kike did have a good season in 2018 – he hit more HR and cut down on his strikeouts, but his progress has not always been linear. This Spring, Kike is is hitting .341 with a .404 OB% and a 1.038 OPS, Kike has worked hard to get into better shape, studied film and worked with Robert Van Socyoc and Company to keep his bat “in the zone” longer.
Kike will do whatever the Dodgers ask of him, but he doesn’t want to be the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” anymore. He wants a position and a chance to start. His play reflects his resolve. Yes, I know it is Spring Training, but Kike is blossoming (evolving) into the type of hitter I envisioned a few years ago. Whether he can be as good as JD Martinez remains to be seen, but I can see Kike improving. Here are his OPS the past three years:
- 2016 – .607 (Poor)
- 2017 – .729 (Average)
- 2018 – .806 (Above Average)
According to Bill James classifications of hitters, over .8334 is “Very Good” and over .900 is considered “Great.” Kike Hernandez crept up on us and now he is on verge of being Very Good or maybe even Great! If possible, I’d like to see Kike get a shot at being a full time position player at 2B. That’s what he wants to do, but he will do whatever the team asks. This guy is as serious about his game as he is goofy about his outlook on life.
Kike “Middle-of-the-Order Hitter?” I can see it. Maybe the Dodgers don’t need a Swiss Army Knife with Brad Miller (who looks like he belongs) and Chris Taylor. It’s going to be hard to keep all the players on the squad, unless the Dodgers go with 12 pitchers. All of these players deserve to be on the team:
- Barnes
- Martin
- Muncy
- Freese
- Hernandez
- Seager
- Turner
- Pederson
- Taylor
- Pollock
- Bellinger
- Verdugo
- Miller
I think the Dodgers will be looking at keeping 12, not 13 pitchers. It’s always in flux, but here is my Opening Day lineup:
- Pollock CF
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Bellinger RF
- Muncy 1B
- Pederson LF
- Hernandez 2B
- Barnes C
- Buehler P
Discussion (82)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Thank you Vegas for that clarification on the savings the Angels get of $68 million dollars. But you do see how really laughable it is that ONLY gets $362 million dollars for the 10 year extension.
I am a capitalist, so I am not saying I oppose him going for it, since a whole lot of fools are willing to pay it. Get it while you can, but it is killing the game. It is why us “Old-Timers” are berated all the time for our comments. Sure, I know. Aaron, Mays, Koufax, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, they all got ripped by the owners. I get tired of hearing the complaints.
Perhaps, the behind the scenes contract dealings should be held secret so players stop trying outbid the next guy
Hamchuck’s Take on the Trout Deal hhhhummm
$430m dollars. My word have we all lost our collective minds in sports? I know great of a ballplayer he is, superstar great. But $100m over the last guy, who is also considered by many superstar great . What is next is ask? $1 Billion Dollars? $1 Billion dollars say, plus perhaps the player demands a “Mini-Me” dressed exactly in his likeness? The salaries are becoming so astronomically high, that our beloved Front Office will have to start paying more and more for the “very good player” then more for the crappy players. The next step is ticket prices with will rise beyond the means for the every day consumer to attend One Game, let alone the Season. It costs an arm, plus several toes to go to a game now. In the future who knows. The game is getting ridiculous.
Roger- Noticed Utley also. I hope he hangs with the team in some capacity..
Hey, did someone snake the drain and a Ham chuck was released!??
Carlos Miscavige Alert!!! Have the savages at LA Dodger talk hidden away this chronic menace from the public?? Carlos Miscavige who is he and what did he know, and when did he know it??? We Dodger fans demand to know. 🙂
I think he left to attend Spring Training.
What has happened to Carlos??
Holy smokes, a Chase Utley sighting, in uniform in the Dodger dugout tonight. Wonder what they have planned for him, looks like his retirement was short lived. DO NOT let this guy get away, he should be Doc’s bench coach in a year or so. Damn I miss him.
Thank you to everyone for being civil and treating each other with respect.
We are brothers (and sisters) in arms.
Feel free to disagree without being disagreeable.
Wow, first Trout, now Bregman with the Astros. We may be seeing a new shift in baseball, where guys will take an extension instead of dangling out there like Machado and Harper for so many months. Freese mentioned a few months ago that he was glad to pick up his option instead of going through the new free agent process. totally agree
They say Corey will be in tomorrow’ big league game.
I would start ryu in the opener. I would be ok with hill as well but I hope they go with ryu. There was never a chance in hades that kershaw or buehler would start. The only one who didn’t know that was roberts. I keep reading how the Dodgers have the best most talented 40 man so why wouldn’t roberts winning pct be top notch. He has had the best pitcher in the game so he should win his share.
I’m glad the Angels signed trout for 12 years. Maybe they can extend pujois a couple more. As great as trout is that’s a long time to stay healthy and produce at the level that is expected. Has trout been on any World Series champions? The Angels were scared la might get involved at free agency. That’s funny but it got them splurging.
We are probably going to need another bat at some point. As soon as pollock goes down we will need a rh bat. The backup right now would be Taylor. The opening day lineup: joc, seager, turner, bellinger, pollock, Muncy, kike,Barnes, Ryu
1. I do not think the Dodgers will start Verdugo over Joc in LF… unless Joc really sucks the rest of Spring Training. They want Alex to REALLY earn the position… and I think he will.
2. To those of you who want to make fun of Dave Roberts and/or Friedman for not being forthcoming about injuries, all I can say, is it’s something you have to do… every team does it. Many times they can’t give you a straight answer because the player doesn’t want it out or the team doesn’t want it out. Teams who divulge this kind of stuff are called one thing: LOSERS! Get a clue!
3. I happen to agree with ramping up starters slowly. It helps them be fresher later. Quit comparing this year with Jansen in 2018. Yes, they started him slow and he had a leg injury that sidelined him much longer and then the heart issue. Not even close to the same thing.
4. Don’t draw any conclusions on Joc, Muncy and CT3 in Spring Training. Wait for the bell to ring and CT3 is not going to AAA. Never, Nada!
5. Signing Trout was a good business decision but a horrible baseball decision. The Angels will never win!
6. I am not convinced Corey Seager will start the season on the Active Roster.
7. This is Spring Training, where players you never heard of become options.
8. Realize that the Farmer Trade was made for several reasons, but one of them was to eliminate so many platoons.
9. AJ Pollock and Justin Turner will have stats very similar to each other.
Jorge Castillo reports that “ Kershaw will begin the season on the injured list “
Vegas, I’d love to see a freeway series so we could kick the halo’s arse..
Watford my man! Great to hear from you across the pond. I was sure you were going toss back a pint or two. Be good Be safe my brother.
Getting ready to head out and get a bite to eat before game time. The food at Camelback leaves alot to be desired and you have to put up your first grandchild as collateral .
Great to see Walker B. get his first start and of course one of my favorite ex Dodgers Trace Thompson.
Kike actually hit .260 last year against lefties and was hardly the lefty killer that we had hoped, but solid. His numbers are just fine for a second baseman. I hope he keeps developing but I also prefer to see him near the bottom of the order. Batting 3rd in the World Series was laughed at across the nation. I find him to be one of the worst culprits of swinging for the fences every pitch. If he could ever consistently stay on the ball and drive pitches to RCF he would take the next step as a player.
What, no one here roots for the Angels except when they play the Dodgers? I still remember them beating Bonds and the Giants in the WS. I have waited my whole life for a Fwy Series, and it still could happen with retaining the best player in baseball.
12 hours to baseball that counts!
The Trout extension is a great signing for the Angels. I never bought in that he would go to Philly to form a ‘super team’. The Angels are not horrible and still have Ohtani and a solid IF. They have a pretty brutal rotation however and need to get past Pujols’s contract. There would have been a fan mutiny if he was allowed to get away. He may be that rare player who plays his entire career with one team right to the HOF. I also think he wanted to avoid the total cluster bomb that Harper went through doing the FA dance or being dealt for 6 guys.
I think the biggest problem Doc has when talking to reporters is that he has to be careful what he says because the FO is so tight lipped about everything. He can’t divulge any “state secrets” so he generally just talks positive spin – which is what a lot of people want to hear anyway. If he turns out to be wrong then he just smiles and covers it with more positive spin. It’s not quite like he is Baghdad Bob but there are some similarities. Top heavy management with tight information control.
I expect to see Miller on the opening day roster. Friedman is a big fan and wants him on the team. That would mean one of the following: Seager not activated for the first 7-10 days of the season (in spite of what Roberts has said), Muncy on the IL to begin the season (wrist issues can be tricky), CT3 optioned to get his head on straight and work on his hitting or Joc traded (my choice – I would give Verdugo the job and let him have 1/2 a season to loose it). I don’t see any way they don’t carry 13 pitchers for the entire season. Our starters (with the exception of Buehler) simply don’t go more than 5-6 innings on a regular basis, even after the first month of the season.
Our hitting looks lousy right now, but it doesn’t need to look good until March 28th. Guys who are hitting .100 now could be batting .400 at the end of April and guys who are hitting .300 now could start the season 0-25.
Bobby – no mention of Luis Cruz?
Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if we added a top starter at the deadline. We’ve tried almost everything and an elite SP can uniquely impact a postseason.
This might be the best, most complete team we have fielded during our 7-year run. For anybody who is losing heart or turning against the organization, realize that true believers never waver in their fandom and winning is that much sweeter when you stay loyal through thick and thin.
(And I say this as an Oregon Duck fan who stopped watching them when Bol Bol went down!)
I know it’s still early but will the Yankees call the Dodgers looking for a starting pitcher and Stanton may be involved in a trade with the Dodgers is there a possibility
Correction: Friday, is World Water Day.
Mark, agree with most, if not all of what you said. But that’s not why I’m commenting. Just want you to know (and you may well be aware of this), that according to my Defenders of Wildlife calendar, today is World Water Day.
1 – The Dodgers have gone too slow in ramping up their starting pitchers in my opinion. The only 2 guys who have pitched more than 4 so far have been Hill and Stripling and neither could make it out of the 5th. It reminds me of the way that they slow-played Jansen last Spring. The point to Spring Training is to get players ready for the season and they don’t do a good job of that with SP in my opinion.
2 – The offense is lagging but that’s typical as hitters usually start behind the pitchers. I am concerned that the essentially the same group is out there as last year when they could only score by hitting HRs and this Spring they aren’t even doing that.
3 – Seager is supposed to start the season with the Dodgers but I suspect that Roberts et al are giving us the rope-a-dope on Seager they way they did with Kershaw and Buehler. The Dodgers don’t want to give any information to the opposition so they play games with stuff like this, even though most of us fans can figure it out anyway. Seager hasn’t played a single Spring game against big league competition yet.
4 – Taylor has picked up where he left off last season. Last night another 0 for 3 with 2 Ks.
5 – Dodger catchers have played well so far this Spring – but it’s probably an illusion.
6 – Several Dodger hitters aren’t hitting like they’re ready.
Muncy: .156/ .289/ .219/ .508
Taylor: 205/ .239 /.364/ .603
Pollock: .237/ .356/ .368/ .724
Martin: .238/ .273/ .429/ .701
Verdugo: .270/ .300/ .378/ .678
Bellinger and Pederson are hitting for power but not for average: (at least it’s something)
Bellinger: .216 .268 .541 .809
Pederson: .189 .279 .541 .820
Only Turner, Hernandez and Barnes look like they’re ready to start the season.
How about giving actual MLB players more AB and stop wasting AB on the likes of minor leaguers who aren’t going to be on the roster when the season starts? How about giving SP their innings and stop wasting them on guys I’ve never heard of?
7 – As to the Farmer trade, let’s wait ’till the end of the season. I expect a career year from Puig.
My hunch is Joc is gone by TD.
Lets compare Joc and Verdugo statistics at the end of the year.
The players in your lineup appears right on as long as Zack Greinke is the DBacks starting pitcher. It appears that he probably will be. He is having a good spring, and he has always pitched well at Dodger Stadium. But based on trends, I would suspect that Joc will lead off and not Pollock. I would suspect that AJ will bat 5th.
I think it would be absolutely unfair for the team and for Buehler if he were to be the opening day starter. He is scheduled to throw in a ST game for the first time today. If continues on normal rest, he would pitch again on Sunday meaning he would pitch opening day on 3 days rest. The rotation is setup for Rich Hill to be opening day starter.
12 pitchers is pipe dream. Neither Hill or Stripling could get out of the 5th inning in their last starts, and they have one more potential spring start. The team plays 33 games in the first 35 days, and with starting pitchers not expected to go 6 innings, how can you go with only 7 relief pitchers. As long as Kershaw is out, Strip needs to stay in the rotation eliminating one reliable reliever. Right or wrong, this team does not setup for pitchers to go deep into games, especially at the start of the season. If your starters are not expected to go deep, then you better have a bullpen.
I commented that I believe that Kike’ has earned the 2B starting job. I absolutely agree with you. CT3 will undoubtedly spell Corey at times during the first month of the season. I like Brad Miller, and I would hate to lose him, but right now there is no position for him, unless Verdugo goes down, which I cannot see happening. Hopefully he can be convinced to accept an assignment to OKC. If not Daniel Castro becomes that guy. Not a bad fallback.
My opinion
The Dodgers will carry 13 pitchers.
I think Muncy´s wrist is still giving him problems.
Still some games to play so things can change but my choice for LF is Verdugo.
Robert´s and his percentage, him or the players, I think I´ll ask Hill.
Trout – the madness and Monopoly money keeps raining . You think we could have a moratorium on Doc?? No Verdugo? Really M.T.?
Breaking: Trout signs huge extension
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826558-report-mike-trout-angels-finalizing-historic-12-year-430m-contract
Gio Gonzales signs for $3M minor league deal with the Yankees. Makes Ryu at $17.9M look like a real bargain, no?
Jeff Passan @ ESPN is reporting Mike Trout and Angels w 12 yr/$430M extension. $35M+ AAV
I would love it if we carried 12 pitchers but that idea always gets shot down.
I’m surprised that Verdugo isn’t in your opening day lineup. You’re stacking 3 lefties in the middle, that isn’t going to happen. What’s the point of trying to predict lineups anyways? It will be different every day.
So, Roberts’ says Bueller is still being considered for the Opening Day starter yesterday, then today he isn’t. Typical Roberts. It seems to me that Roberts is always wrong in these situations. Could it be that he’s doesn’t know anymore than you and I because he doesn’t fill out the lineup card?
As far as Roberts’ winning percentage goes…Mattingly had a pretty good winning percentage too, now he doesn’t. Could it be because of the players?
The offense went to sleep again last night, so did I. The starting pitchers are getting gassed early. I fully expect another slow start like last year. Since none of them are built up, you can bet your house that there will be 13 pitchers on the Opening Day roster.
Corey will now play in a Spring game on Wednesday. I guess Friedman realized that playing on the minor league side until the Freeway Series wasn’t going to be a good idea.
I’m starting to realize that this team doesn’t have enough offense and no one on the farm will be ready to help out this year. Don’t expect Seager to start fast after being held back all Spring. Maybe he could have DH’d on the Major League side?