Friday night’s game was nice, but it’s just one game. The starter did his job, the bullpen did theirs (it’s a lot easier when it’s not close) and the hitters certainly did theirs. Kemp and Machado are coming out of their slumps and the Dodgers are still two games back of the D-Bags. These guys now need to build some consistency (which is breed with confidence) and start a winning streak. The talent is clearly there – the execution has not always been.
Today, we are going to look at one area of the team: the outfield and see how everyone is doing. The Dodgers have a glut of outfielders on both the major and minor league level. Let’s count how many Major League Caliber Players there are on the 40-man roster. Let’s look at their performance and Grades so far:
- Matt Kemp – As hot as a firecracker at the start of the season and currently colder than a well-diggers butt. Matt was a Spring “feelgood” story as he lost 40 pounds, came to work in shape, stepped up and shut up. Lately, he can’t buy a hit. Interestingly, his career first half statistics are almost identical to his second half statistics. Over his career, he has averaged .285 the first half and .285 the second half… and he’s hitting .285 right now. He has 143 HR the first half and 133 the second half. He could be tired (or injured), but if that were the case, wouldn’t they DL him? I think he is just in a horrific slump and will be just fine… in fact, he started getting his mojo back last night. Baseball has changed and hitters are having to adapt a a much quicker rate. More about that later. Grade: B- (and maybe trending up)
- Chris Taylor – Probably the best CF on the roster, but he has struggled with strikeouts all season. He is of little value when he strikes out so much. He needs to change his approach in order to up his OB%… or he will be a utilityman. Grade: C-
- Yasiel Puig – The enigma! Dodger fans want to believe that he will fulfill his great promise of talent, but something always comes up, like an injury… or a suspension. His defense has slipped this year. Still, he is one of the greatest talents I have ever seen in baseball. He can carry a team. Grade: B-
- Joc Pederson – Who really is Joc Pederson? 10 of his 18 HR came in June. Dave Roberts often hits him leadoff which is felony stupid. For the year, he is hitting .226 (.291 OB%) as a lead off hitter. At lead off, he is all-or-nothing with 11 HR. In the #5 through #8 spots in the batting order, he is hitting well over .300. Grade: C, but he might be a B+ if Doc would hit him where he belongs
- Kike Hernandez – On any given day, he looks like a Superstar at the bat and he always gives 110% in the field, but many times, he simply cannot hit. He’s an “all-or-nothing” sort of guy. He is the guy who gets traded and turns into JD Martinez. That’s what I fear. Grade: C
- Cody Bellinger – He’s a Gold Glove 1B, who can also player a solid CF. He has adjusted after going through a protracted slump. He still is the Dodgers’ biggest power threat. Grade: B-
- Andrew Toles – In May of 2016, I wrote that Toles would be in the majors before August. He made it sooner than that! He has looked very good at times, although he is not a proficient Center Fielder. He is a classic 4th outfielder on a team that is heavy from the RH side, which the Dodgers are not. He did hit a walkoff HR in the 11th inning to win the game for OKC last night. Not enough to grade
- Alex Verdugo – This kid is gifted beyond belief with bat-to-ball skills. His non-strikeout bat would play very well in this strikeout happy lineup. I do not understand why he has not been called up. He could be Tony Gwynn! I do not believe he will play CF for long in his career, but he may be forced to play there this year. His foot speed is simply “average.” Not enough to grade
The Dodgers currently don;t have any “really good outfielders” or “really bad outfielders.” They have a bunch of guys who are in the middle and in some respects are “the same guy.” In order for this team to fulfill their promise and win the NL West and proceed deep into the post-season, at least two of those players need to step up and raise their grades to a B+ or A-. Best chances: Kemp, Bellinger and Verdugo (if called up). Chris Taylor just needs to be a role player. I would like to see an outfield of Kemp in LF, Verdugo in CF and and Puig in RF. Of course, they need rest, so Kike, Joc and CT3 can spell them and “somewhat” platoon.
How Baseball Has Changed
Ten years ago, less than 25 pitchers threw 95+ MPH. Now, it’s well over 100 who can do that. That maybe also explains the plethora of Tommy John Surgeries and arm problems. It’s tougher for hitters to hit faster pitches with high spin rates and then there is the role of statistics and resultant analysis of those statistics.
Every team has access to all of this statistical information:
- pitch velocity
- pitch location
- what pitches get hitters out
- pitching patterns
- hitting patterns
- … and a whole lot more
What is not clear is how they manipulate that information. I know many teams hire interns to compile statistics and develop information as to what a hitters’ weakness might be. Scouting still has a role, but not as great as it once was. The team on the cutting edge of this is the Houston Astros, so don’t say it doesn’t work. All the teams have this information which results in protracted slumps for even the best players (i.e., Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Stanton, Inciarte and several Dodgers). Adjustments are slower, if ever… as weaknesses are exposed.
At first blush, most oldtimers don’t like it, but it ain’t going away anytime soon. Baseball is in flux due to statistical analysis and hopefully it will evolve in a positive way.
Rants & Raves
- Puig only got a two game suspension and he didn’t start Friday nights’ game. Why appeal? They aren’t going to reduce it (at least I don’t think so), so why not accept it and be able to play Sunday?
- It appears that Dave Roberts is finally (FINALLY) going to abandon the strict platoon.
- You wanted Manny Machado to get hot? Wish granted!
- It still sounds, like Kenley Jansen will be back early next week.
- Josh Fields pitched a shutout inning at OKC last night. He’s close.
- After the World Series last year, Bill Plunkett of The OC Register wrote this: “The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year avoided any sophomore slump. But his nagging late-season injuries – to his elbow and back – are reason for concern. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Seager might not be too big to play shortstop. But the position’s physical demands might be a problem.” That is still a very logical question.
- Max Muncy will be a great DH next year!
(Photo by John McCoy, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)
Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
This game another microcosm of the Dodgers’ season:
1 – No hitting with RISP
2 – Solo HRs (3)
3 – Bullpen figured a new way to lose
Murphy’s Law!!!
Floro has now walked in and balked in walk-offs the last week.
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This team just isn’t doing what it takes to do anything this year. From not turning a DP to walking the bases loaded then balking. Ferguson deserves better. I still don’t get why Muncy is in the field and not DHing.
Bad flip by Dozier.
Can anybody tell me if Morgan Cooper still exists? WTH
I hate it when they put 3 guys on that side of 2B. Just seems unnecessary to shift that much on a righty.
OK, let’s keep it up. When the Dodgers hit at least 3-HR they are 20-0!
Awesome bat flip by Muncy!
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Who was bad-mouthing Muncy?
3 HR against what is maybe the best 8th and 9th inning combo in baseball.
Swing, Jack, Out!
2 solo HR for 2 of the 3 runs. 6 LOB; 1 for 5 RISP. Wash, rinse repeat.
Bellingerized!
Here we go, Dodgers…
This team is at it again, just no consistency from one night to the next, mediocrity is brutal in every endeavor in life. I can’t put my finger on what is missing, probably some consistent and not all or nothing bats plus a better pen and we would be a playoff team. Unfortunately our FO failed this year pen construction, Roberts utterly sucks and lost is 3 or 4 important games, and we missed Seager and his clutch bat a lot. I hope there is a manager and a little player overhaul, and a little money spent in the 2019 offseason. We need to get better in all areas.
Since the trade for Dozier, in 53 AB’s, Logan Forsythe is hitting .415 with a .466 OB% and a .956 OPS.
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I guess he’s just not an LA Kind of Guy!
Mark, where is Santana? Do you know if he is coming back or not this year?
rrrr
One outfielder more?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/nationals-place-bryce-harper-daniel-murphy-on-revocable-trade-waivers.html#comments
Mark
Toles did more then just hit a game winning HR last night.
He had three hits, including a triple, a HR, and he had 4 two out, RBIs, and scored 2 runs.
Interesting takes re. next year’s team (and some laughable takes) , but at this point, I don’t care! I care about the next 6 weeks and then October. Ryu’s QO or Dozier’s future K or Machado’s preferred destination don’t mean a damn thing for the 2018 title.
We’ve gone thru some weird losing streaks in August it seems every year since 2013 (including last year’s 17 of 18 losses). Hopefully by splitting these next 2, we’ll have taken 2 of 3 on the road vs a good team, won 3 out of 4, and start playing better baseball. It looks like Manny and JT are heating up, and Cody is finally squaring up on the ball. If CT3 could find a pair of contact lenses to correct his obvious poor vision, we might have something! Looking forward to Wood continuing what he did the other day.
Play the best guys, and don’t bat all the same-handers vs an opposite handed pitcher!
Like AC, I really like Chrstian Santana. He has a chance to be a real impact player. He has to improve a lot, but he has and is. He could be a big time 3B by the time Turner’s deal is up!
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Also, I do not see the Dodgers trading for Relief Pitchers with all the arms they have in the minors. Next year, they should have Urias, Buehler, Chicken Strip and Hill as locks. Then there is Kershaw and/or Ryu as well as Maeda and/or Wood.
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Dustin May is likely 2020, as is Mitch White and Michael Grove. Then there is Dennis Santana, Brock Stewart, Caleb Ferguson, Edwin Uceta, Marshall Kasowski, Jordon Sheffield and several others, including the enigmatic Yadiar Alvarez.
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Some are already in the bullpen and others will need to be switched there. I think the Dodgers are stacked with bullpen pieces. Guys like Sheffield, Ferguson and Santana could be lock-down relievers.
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I do think some major trades could happen that could include a couple outfielders (I won’t speculate who) and pitchers like Wood and/or Maeda could be trade material.
First I agree with Mark, this was only one game, but it was good to see Kemp have a nice night, and see Cody continue to hit consistently.
Because Cody has mostly stopped, from trying to hit one out, in every at bat.
He can be one of the guys on this team, that can hit in important runs, much like he did, last year.
I expect this type of production from Manny, especially against the pitchers, we faced.
And about the outfield, some can say what they want about Toles in center, but just with his athleticism alone, he has one of the best defensive metrics in center, on this team.
And Verdugo doesn’t have good defensive metrics in center, and that is probably because, he doesn’t have the speed, and athleticism, that Toles does.
But I agree with Mark, that Taylor does the best job in center, on this team.
I just think Toles needs to play there more, and gain confidence.
And I think Cody is a good defensive centerfielder, but he is a possible gold glove at first, and because of that, he makes everyone in the infield better, so I prefer him at first.
Verdugo has a high batting average at AAA, but when it comes to situational hitting, his numbers goes down a lot.
His OPS when runners are in scoring position, is 789, and Toles numbers in these situations, are must better.
Toles OPS is in the 1000s in these situations, and he also has a higher average, in these situations, then Verdugo does.
And it isn’t like Toles isn’t hitting 300 plus, either.
And think about it, Toles not only missed most of last year, he also almost missed the first two months of the season, at the beginning of the year, just when he was really heating up.
He never had played in AAA more then a month, and that was in 2016, so he doesn’t know, and he hasn’t faced, any of the pitchers in that league, like Verdugo.
And he had to catch up with everyone else, after being off almost two months, at the beginning of the season.
And he has kept up with Verdugo much of the season.
In fact, Toles was the first one hitting 350 this year.
Verdugo does have really good numbers against lefties in AAA, and Toles has better numbers against lefties then a lot of players in the outfield, too.
Although Verdugo in a small sample of 16 at bats in the majors, didn’t hit leftie pitchers that well.
And Toles did about the same in an even smaller sample, but he did have good numbers against lefties last year, in a little bigger sample.
I think Toles can learn from Verdugo to take more walks, and get on base more, and his average would be even higher.
But this team has never had a problem of getting on base, and in fact, this year, this team has got on base from walks, more then any other team, in all of baseball.
This team’s biggest weakness is getting key hits, when runners are in scoring position, as I have said way to much, but this has been an ongoing problem with this team, especially this year.
I didn’t mention Puig, because I don’t see anyone right now, taking his place.
And although I think Joc is a much better defender when he plays left, and he is doing better this year, it isn’t like Joc is a rookie, so it is hard to compare Toles or Verdugo to him.
Because Joc has been given three plus years, to not only change his approach, but to also produce consistently.
I do know that both Toles and Verdugo, do change their approach, and they both can hit the ball the other way, already.
And Kemp has a history of hitting, and I am not talking about the way he faded the previous year on the Braves, in the second half of the season.
Because when Kemp was playing for the Braves and the Padres, he was expected to be one of the big bats, in the middle of the line up.
He already carried this team in the first half of the season, but he is not alone anymore in this line up, because Manny and Dozer are in the line up, and now Cody is hitting consistently.
And because of all of this, I expect Kemp to continue to hit, because of his history of hitting, and the fact he is very motivated, to help this team.
And he doesn’t have to be that big bat anymore, he just needs to contribute to the offense, and I think he is more then capable of doing that.
And I still do see him getting some big hits for this team, especially in this line up we have, now.
I also think there’s a chance the Dodgers try and sign Grandal… in the right deal.
So, here’s the questions:
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1. Will Grandal get the QO? I say yes!
2. Will Ryu get the QO?
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Before you say no, what if he is “lights out” like he has been all year, when healthy? And… it was not his arm or shoulder that caused this issue. What if Kershaw opts out? Ryu could get the QO!
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Now, he might not accept and Yasmani probably wouldn’t but two additional picks would be nice!
I agree with you on the Outfield. Kemp, Vertigo, and Puig should be the starters in the Outfield. The infield is set with Bellinger at first. Grandal should be the catcher. That is the starting line up Doc needs to send out everyday. Regardless if the pitcher is a righty or a lefty. We have great starters. Now we need to solve the bullpen. We have the pitchers. Now we just need to define their roles.
The conundrum that is the Dodgers is this type of game shows what the team could be: a quality start, lock down from the pen and 5 HR’s. Another example of run differential being misleading, especially with this team. The reality is each game is usually close and could go either way and lately the breaks have not gone their way.
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Mentally this team should be in a good place: a walk off win snapping a losing streak; a day off to travel and then a blowout win to open a crucial road trip. The starting pitching has been great for more than a week; the bullpen is showing signs of breaking out; Doc deviated from his strict platoons; Kemp and Manny showing signs of life.
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It is time to sit Kike and CT3 more often, I am not ready to bench Muncy. Grandal can hit from the right side, better than Barnes at this point. Give him the normal catcher’s day off: Sun after a night game Sat. Play the best you have most days knowing Kemp, JT and Yas need some days off and ditch the strict platoons. If a guy has a hot hand, roll him out there don’t sit him. If a starter is rolling give him an extra inning, pull him if runners get on.
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Sept 1st should see many guys already on the 40 man called up, unless the affiliate is in the playoffs. It will be tough to give these call ups much run in the middle of a tight race but at least Doc won’t run out of players in extra innings. As bad as they looked losing 5 in a row the team could be poised for a win streak with Hill having an advantage in today’s game and Kersh going tomorrow. I see signs of life and a very winnable division. Faz has done what they could to improve, it’s up to the players now . (I just had to do 6 image verifies to post-nuts!!)
It is amazing what the release of logjams will do. There was a logjam at C in AA and Will Smith was promoted to AAA. It is taking Smith a little bit to get accustomed to AAA pitching, but he is getting more comfortable each day. He is playing a lot of 3B because he still has a logjam at C (Farmer and Gale). Smith has started 10 games; 6 at C and 4 at 3B. But the beneficiary has been Keibert Ruiz. The day before Smith was promoted, Ruiz was batting .238/.307/.370/.677. Now he is batting .259/.325/.399/.724. Overall for those 12 games, Keibert is batting .383/.431/.574/1.006. Think he likes being the everyday catcher?
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Another beneficiary is Cristian Santana. After the Rylan Bannon trade, Cristian was moved backed to his familiar 3B spot and took off. On July 18 (the day Bannon was traded), Santana was batting .243/.272/.384/.656. Now he is batting .260/.287/.438/.725. For the 27 games and 120 PA since the trade, Cristian is batting .322/.342/.609/.950, with 10 HRs and 37 RBIs. He has also cut down his K rate to 22.5% in those 27 games. He now leads the California League in HRs (23) and RBIs (100), and he is still 21 and learning. I think he likes the logjam removed as well.
Resign Manny and Dozier, move Seager to 1b, Muncy is the DH. Cody is CF. CT O for 3 and Keeekeee are trade chips to acquire BP help.extend a QO to Yaz and when he signs somewhere else we get the extra compensation draft pick and we look for some veteran catching help to be our starter until Smith and Ruiz are ready, someone like Lucroy or Iannetta