Maybe you missed it, but the 2020 Dodgers are the World Champions. Yes, by golly, they won it again after just 32 short years. It wasn’t a fluke and going into 2021, they are the odds on favorite to win it all again.
“Hey You’all, watch this: I’ll blow up the team and make dope-fiend trades just because I can”, said the stupid Redneck! “I’ll do it out by my new swimmin’ pool! Let’s make some trades…”
I hate to break the news to you, but you are not going to see a lot of movement by the Dodgers and I will add this caveat: “If you thought of it – It probably ain’t happening!” Then someone will say “Hey Timmons, didn’t you used to dream up some wild dumba$$ trades?” The answer is yes, but that was when the Dodgers NEEDED to do something. They don’t need to do anything now! Nothing. ZERO! ZIP! NADA!
As great as Justin Turner has been for them, they will not break the bank to sign him. I see a one-year… maybe two-year deal at $8 to $10 Million per year. He’s 36! That’s it! This is 20COVID. Things have changed. Anyone of the Dodgers free agents could be back… but most likely won’t be back. Move along, there’s nothing to see here folks.
Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Gylber Torres, Chris Archer, Josh Hader and Chris Bryant all have the same odds of being a Dodger next year – ZERO! You don’t bring in Lindor and piss off your MVP SS and you don’t put the best defensive SS in baseball at 2B.
The 2021 version of the Dodgers needs very little in the form of change. A new closer would be nice – Jeff Dominique has suggested Trevor May (and I agree) but at what price? He made $2.25 Million last year. What about 2 Years/$10 Million? If not, walk away – there will be plenty of arms available at the trade deadline next year.
There is no need to make any dope-fiend moves. Even if Turner doesn’t re-sign and all of the Free Agents sign elsewhere, the options are plentiful. Consider this:
- Zach McKinstry becomes a LH Kike Hernandez
- Brett de Geus takes Pedro Baez’ spot in the bullpen
- Kody Hoese takes Justin Turners place
- Alex Wood really didn’t have a “place” until the World Series but you could do worse than Scott Alexander
- Mitch White takes Blake Trienen’s spot
Cody Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, Michael Busch, and Gavin Lux could all be ready in 2021. So could Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, Landon Knack, and Clayton Beeter.
The Dodgers have three positions that are question marks, but they also have plenty of solutions:
- 2B – McKinstry, Smith, Lux, Muncy, and Busch
- 3B – Hoese, Smith, McKinstry, Mann, Muncy, and Rios
- LF – Lux, Pollock, Thomas, McKinstry, and Rios
Francisco Lindo is not coming to the Dodgers. Mookie Betts did that! The Dodgers farm system is loaded, with guys like McKinstry, Hoese, Busch, Mann, Lux, Thomas, Ruiz, and others. A couple may be All-Stars. Most are Role Players!
The Team’s Offensive Core
Mookie Betts – He had a good year in 2020, but if you know baseball, you are waiting for that MVP year. You know, when he hits .330 with 35 HR and 100 RBI from the leadoff spot. He’s the best right fielder in baseball. It will happen…
Corey Seager – This is another guy who could win an MVP. He has already won the World Series MVP. Depending upon what happens over the winter, Corey could hit second or third. While not elite, his defense is underrated.
Max Muncy – Max Muncy hit 37 HR in 2018 and 2019. 2020 was an off-year by his standards, but in the Postseason, his OB% was .438, with a .904 OPS and he drove in 14 Runs. Give him another year and his defense will be near the top. His glove is much underrated.
Will Smith – I believe he on his way to having an All-Star bat. Most likely he stays at catcher, but if Ruiz has kept up his growth and there is a need, Will could play 2B or 3B. I have not heard this from the organization. This is just my idea… so don’t put much stock into it.
Cody Bellinger – Former MVP who has elite defense in CF. He had an off-season, but you absolutely know he will work on his swing all winter and come back to compete for another NL MVP. He is THAT guy!
AJ Pollock – He had a solid season, hitting .276 with a .881 OPS. In a 162 game season, that’s a pace for 48 HR and 102 RBI. He hit .345 against LHP and his defense in LF is above average. HE should have another good season or two left. He is best in a platoon role as in 9 years, he has only recorded more than 450 AB’s only once. Get him his 400 AB’s and find a LH platoon partner.
Austin Barnes – Beloved as a receiver, but underrated as a hitter, Austin’s intangibles are off-the-charts. This guy plays a critical role for the Dodger pitching staff.
Chris Taylor – Going into 2021, he is a man without a position and maybe the hire apparent to Kike Hernandez (I am going to miss Kike). He can play 2B or LF at a high level and fill in just about anywhere else. Highly underrated, he hit .270 with a .366 OB% and OPS’ed .842. As a starter or a utilityman, he is solid.
The Up-and-Coming Dodgers
This has to start with Gavin Lux, who has great potential to yet be tapped. I could think of nothing better than to partner him with AJ in LF and earn his playing time. I would keep my eye on Cody Thomas as a possible successor to Joc Pederson. There is a remote possibility Joc comes back.
Next, we have Kiebert Ruiz whose bat-to-ball skills are legendary. Is he ready for the Show? Then there is Kody Hoese, who just might have that right-handed bat the Dodgers so desperately need. I would love to pencil him in at 3B, but Edwin Rios is not to be doubted. He has OPS’ed .972 in his short MLB career and has 12 HR in 123 AB’s! 2021 could be his “breakout” year. His “Light Tower Power” is among the top 1% in baseball!
Mike Busch has an elite hit-tool and is turning heads with better than expected play at 2B. Like the rest of the youngsters, including Lux, he will have to earn his playing time, but I expect at least two, maybe three of these guys will step up and do just that. This is the fun of Spring Training and I hope we get to see it in its entirety! Don’t forget about Zach McKinstry who may be the new LH Swiss Army Knife.
Logical Conclusion
Andrew Friedman will follow his plan. He will seek value where he can get it, not overpay and grow from within… this includes trying to lock up his core players: Seager, Buehler, and Bellinger. If Andrew Friedman does nothing, including not signing any of their own free agents, the Dodgers are still likely to be the odds-on-favorites to win the 2021 World Series.
You can bet your sweet bippy that AF will not stand pat, but I doubt that anyone who wrote or reads this has a clue what he will do. Enjoy the ride! I remain optimistic that well will have a season in 2020. For those of you who care, here is the NY TIMES CORONAVIRUS VACCINE TRACKER. This is not political, but rather about the reality of a vaccine to save our people, our way of life, and most importantly, the 2021 baseball season! I remain very optimistic! Keep the discussion to baseball and leave the political aspects out!
Discussion (86)
Disagree, not disagreeable
So, a couple of days ago, someone posted the link to an article about Kody Hoese where Gavin Lux said that Hoese was “really, really, really good.” It was said in the context of an interview where it just seemed odd to me. He could have said “Yeah, he’s good.” But, he said REALLY three times.
That’s the kind of stuff you say when you see something really amazing. So, over the next couple of days I put in a few calls (3 to be exact – I got the 3rd one last night). Now, I don’t know what to say about these people I talked to because they all work in different areas of baseball. All were once with the Dodgers, but are not at this time. There is a buzz around baseball wherein baseball people talk to other baseball people and communicate. Sometimes it includes reporters, but generally, it’s just a form of communication among baseball types.
Jeff Dominique knows of what I speak – maybe he even has a name for it – but if some player is doing something good or bad, this news travels fast. My sources tell me that Kody Hoese (unlike many players) took a huge leap forward while at USC, thus the “Really, Really, Really Good.” I know Jeff also has sources (actually a lot more than me) and I hope he can check with some of them about Hoese.
I like Gavin Lux, but I have never predicted when he would arrive and how good he might be. I really don’t know. I do know what I hope he can be, but I don’t predict that. I predicted that Seager and Bellinger were ready and that they would be stars, because I saw it with my own eyes. MY EYES, don’t tell me that about Lux, but Lux and now others have confirmed that Kody Hoese may have taken a big step forward in 2020. This is all heresay and maybe I am wrong, but stuff like this DOES happen in baseball. Suddenly, the light just flips on! Kody will be 24 in July. Seager and Bellinger were 21. I just do not have any empirical evidence, but I do have 3 people all saying that Kody is now on a fast track.
On JoJo Gray: I like him, but his ceiling is as a #3. Bobby Miller’s ceiling is of an Ace and I have no doubt that Bobby and his 99 MPH fastball and 90 MPH slider/cutter could pitch successfully out of the bullpen right now. Miller looks like a starter, but may have to move to the pen. I see JoJo Gray as a Lance Lynn top pitcher.
ThenDodgers will need a right hand bat. Any guess who Friedman might look at. I think Jeff is right AF will not sign Ozuna. As I r3call Peters strike out a lot. So while he could get the call sometime during 2021, I don’t see him as the answer.
Tatis getting Silver Slugger a joke with his .278 average and getting shutdown by the Dodgers in the final regular series.
December 2nd is the non-tender deadline. December 6-10 are the winter meetings. That’s going to be a fun time for us. Not so much for the guys who are non-tendered.
A blog is a living, breathing thing.
Today, when I wrote the blog. all of the Dodger’s own free agents are no longer currently Dodgers.
I hope that some are back, but as of today, that is not the case,
Moving forward, AF will not sign free agents like DJLM or trade for guys like Lindor (although you will hear they are on his trail).
At this juncture, we have to assume and hope that some prospects are ready next year.
As I mentioned earlier, the Dodgers had at least 10 rookies play in 2020.
I happen to believe that at least 5 rookies will play a role in 2021.
Which 5? That is the million-dollar question.
I have Hoese at the top of the class followed by:
Ruiz
Busch
de Geus
McKinstry
Thomas
Miller
stay tuned….
Mookie Betts is simply the best all around player I have seen in Dodger Blue. He can do it all, and does all of it better than most any player except maybe Mike Trout. Now, if Mookie gets his mojo back against lefty’s, look out. He will have a monster 2021.
If it’s only he only shows up as Joctober he could weigh in as a heavyweight! I would love to see Joc get serious this off season and come back 20 pounds lighter and in great shape! I would love to have him stay!
MOOKIE BETTS WINS LOUISVILLE SILVER SLUGGER
Dodger outfielder wins third consecutive Louisville Silver Slugger
LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles Dodger outfielder Mookie Betts has been awarded the 2020 National League Louisville Silver Slugger.
Betts, 28, earns his third straight Louisville Silver Slugger award, fourth overall and his first as a member of the Dodgers. This is the second straight season a Dodger has received the award, as Betts follows Cody Bellinger who won the award last season. With the honor, Betts becomes the 20th player in franchise history to earn the award since its inception in 1980 and it is the 28th time a Dodger has received a Silver Slugger award. He becomes the sixth player in franchise history to earn the Rawlings Gold Glove and Louisville Silver Slugger in the same season, joining Bellinger (2019), Adrían González (2014), Matt Kemp (2011), Russell Martin (2007) and Dusty Baker (1981).
In his first season with the Boys in Blue, Betts hit .292 (64-for-129) with nine doubles, 16 homers, 10 stolen bases and 39 RBI in 55 games. The Nashville, TN native ranked among the National League leaders in hits (T-10th), runs (47, 4th), batting average (16th), OBP (.366, 17th), SLG (.562, 13th), OPS (.927, 13th), total bases (123, 7th), extra-base hits (26, T-13th) steals (T-5th) and homers (16, T-3rd).
The National League Most Valuable Player finalist culminated his stellar regular season by leading the Dodgers to a World Championship and hitting safely in 14 of 18 playoff games, while batting .296 (21-for-71) with eight doubles, two homers, six stolen bases and eight RBI. Additionally, he recorded his 1,000th career hit and 500th career RBI in the 2020 campaign and is one of 18 outfielders in MLB history with four or more Louisville Silver Slugger awards.
The Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Awards are the top offensive honor in Major League Baseball. Coaches and managers of Major League teams vote for the players they feel are the best offensive producers at each position in the field in both the American and National Leagues. They base their selections on a combination of offensive statistics including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, as well as the coaches’ and managers’ general impressions of a player’s overall offensive value. Managers and coaches are not allowed to vote for players on their own team.
Each year we offer minor league contracts and spring training invites to a number of players that we want to roll the dice on. Can we offer a “post season contract” to Joc? During the regular season he can do whatever he wants, spend time with the family, go hang out at the beach in Malibu, whatever. Come October, I want him on the team.
In 2020, the Dodgers featured the following ROOKIES on their MLB roster:
Tony Gonsolin
Victor Gonzalez
Brusdar Graterol
Dustin May
Josh Sborz
Mitch White
Keibert Ruiz
Edwin Rios
Zach McKinstry
Is having 2 to 5 rookies play a role next year blowing anything up? Not in my book,
All excellent points and thoughts, Mark.
“Hey You’all, watch this: I’ll blow up the team and make dope-fiend trades just because I can”, said the stupid Redneck! “I’ll do it out by my new swimmin’ pool! Let’s make some trades…”
But then you want to blow up the team and replace key players – guys who’ve been the heart and soul of the team -with players currently in the rookie leagues.
First things first. Mark, edit your HR totals for Muncy for 18 and 19. He hit 35, not 37 each of those years. Bum, since he signed with the Dodgers? Pollock has only been a Dodger 2 years. Not like he has been here for a while. He hit 1 more homer this year than he did in 19. Difference is he did it in under 200 at bats. He had a decent year in 19. Not spectacular, but not as bad as the first year Dusty Baker had in a Dodger uni. He played 31 more games in 19 than he did this year. And the biggest plus, he was healthy. I feel, as Mark does, that there will not be much movement. I think JT will get a team friendly 2 year deal. I also think that when the two sides meet, they will keep the DH moving forward. The players association is all for it. MLB wants to have a trade off with expanded playoffs next year being the caveat. I believe they will stay away from the higher priced players. Anyone who has recieved a QO will definitely not be on their radar simply because I doubt AF is willing to give up the draft choice that is the price for such a signing. There will probably be a trade or two. Lindor is not going to be one of them. As for Belli, he has been good in the odd numbered years. and meh in the even. So a rebound is not out of the question. His first act this off season though was to appear in the new Assassin’s Creed video game. I thank all the free agents and bid them adieu. Pedro and JT appear to have the best chance of returning. Trienen would be on the bubble. He certainly won’t get 10 mil again. If they make any moves at all, I think it will be for a RH hitter with power. That is the one hole in the lineup. Turner could supply some of that, but his power numbers are bound to decline with his advancing age. The perfect solution would be for one of the talented players in the system, Hoese, Busch, to suddenly display MLB talent. Both will most likely get spring invites. I think that after the non tenders are announced in early December, there are going to be so many players out there that they will be able to find some decent pieces at low prices. The MLBPA has used the term bloodbath because so many players are going to be unable to find jobs with the reduction of the minor leagues on the table. And foreign teams like the KBA and the Japanese Leagues, limit the amount of foreign players who can be on the roster. That is going to leave Latin America and Mexico as places they will have to be willing to play, and what ever Independent leagues stay in operation in the states. The face of baseball is changing. I believe there will be maybe a handful of player’s who will get big bucks long term deals this winter. Springer probably, J T Realmuto. But not many more than that. A player like Ozuna is probably going to get no more than 3 years. Anything over 5 would be a real surprise for any player in this uncertain climate.
Now that we’ve got that championship, I totally agree with your idea of giving Lux the first half of 2021 as the every day second baseman. Let ‘s see exactly what we have there and he will feel less pressure if he knows the job is his until the trade deadline.
I wonder if AF has any interest at all in Lindor and if he does, has he had or will he have a conversation with Seager about positions and about extensions. All of that stuff is intermingled and needs to be carefully thought out before even exploring a Lindor trade.
Arenado made a bad decision by not forcing a trade last off season. Between his mediocre 2020, his opt out after 2021 and the huge amount of $ remaining on his contract, he’s going to be very hard to trade right now. If he does opt out after next season, he’s going to wind up taking a salary cut, something that most guys just don’t do. Time for the Rockies to start a total rebuild, including the owner. Story is the one guy who has some real trade value.
I think we will get a RH bat and it will probably be JT.
If JT is resigned than I expect 2B to be covered by someone in the org (CT3, Lux, Muncy most likely in that order). I think it will be a competition between CT3 and Lux with an initial platoon as an option.
I don’t think AF will go into the season with Rios as his only 3B. I don’t see Muncy as a 3B except as an emergency. I also don’t see Hoese as the 3B plan for 2021. Like Cody and Cory though, he could be the 3B at the end of the year. He has to take it and not give it back when given the opportunity. A JT/Rios combination at 3B would be my guess but that only means AF will do something else.
AC, to coin a phrase from one of my favorite and knowledgeable fellow bloggers, SPOT ON.
Every time there is a rumor about a player looking to be traded or becomes a FA, fans expect their team to acquire that player. Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, DJLM, Trevor Bauer, Liam Hendriks, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts…Every one of them have been linked to the Dodgers by some journal or other source. Most of those journals and sources expressed how those players were headed to LA. Out of all those players, the Dodgers traded for and locked up Mookie Betts.
The Dodgers also have three of the best young players in all of MLB: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler. Include Julio Urias and Will Smith, one can make an argument that LAD has five of the best young players in all of MLB. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are two other young guns who have not reached arbitration, and some want them blocked by Trevor Bauer or some other high priced starter. They do not need to be strong on Fangraphs top 200, they are already in and performing in the SHOW. And then the Dodgers have the 2019 MiLB Player of the Year in Gavin Lux, and because he had a poor performance in a CRAZY year, he is no longer good enough for some. If you are not spending $300MM you are not trying hard enough. After all MLB owners are billionaires, and we all know that billionaires made all of their coin by just spending frivolously based on whim.
Everyone knows that we fans know best how to create rosters, and that the Directors of Player Personnel are morons for not listening to us. But then again, which fans should be listened to and which fans should be sent to baseball purgatory? Some want Francisco Lindor (never mind the player capital cost), while others (I would say more informed ☺) prefer Corey Seager at SS. Some want to hold onto Gavin Lux, while others want to move him for relief pitching. Some believe that relief pitchers remain constant and elite every year, while others believe that you cannot trust relief pitchers from one year to the next.
The Indians have said that they WILL be trading Lindor this winter. Will the Rockies look to trade Trevor Story? Nolan Arenado? There is an opportunity to spend $$$ and improve the 2021 team, but will it make them better organizationally? Better chemistry? NYM have the money and the players to get a Lindor deal done. Do the Dodgers want to include two of Lux, May, Ruiz, or Gray and then a 15-20 prospect and maybe a lottery ticket for Lindor? Betts cost Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. SS is not a position of need, but I acknowledge and agree that Lindor is a special player. No Bums, Cleveland is not going to take Pollock or any other player with an above league minimum salary. They are trading Lindor because they cannot afford him.
IMO, the Dodgers will check in, but they will not make the trade. They will let NYM (or another team) make the trade. I like Freddie Freeman, but the Dodgers are not going to get him either. Hoese will not be ready to begin the season with ML team. He lost a valuable year to development, and if there is limited MiLB again in 2021, he will lose more developmental time. Hoese is not Alec Boehm. If JT is not re-signed, Rios will be the 3B. Is that really a bad situation? Although this is an ideal spot for a RH bat.
Also, if I were in charge, I would play Lux at 2B fulltime (no platoon) and let him prove that he belongs or does not belong. The trade deadline could be the arbitrary date to follow up on him. Lux is the 2B without question until then. Joc got a full rookie year before his platooning started. Why not give Lux the same courtesy?
Badger
Let’s all ask and/or pray to God for a solution for the virus. Just my gut feeling but I do believe we will have a vaccine by Jan. 2021. Hence hopefully an early spring training.
Seager and Bellinger both hit the Show at 21. I see no reason a guy who will be 24 in July (Hoese) can’t make it. I did not see him last season, but Gavin Lux and a couple of baseball insiders (not with the Dodgers) have raved about him. The fact that he is RH is a big plus!
Mark, you sound like the GM of the Tampa Bay Rays.
I love home grown players but also understand that prospects are trade assets as much as they are payroll minimizers.
I already said I am ready to take a chance on Hoese being ready for 2021 and would play him at either first or third.
Yes, Pollock had a great 2020 season and has either solidified is spot in LF or has for the first time since signing with the Dodgers become tradeable.
Lux, Rios, Muncy, Bellinger, Seager, Busch are a lot of lefty bats. And I think it is 50 50 that Pederson returns.
Mark, you might be reluctant to make a trade but you willingly toss out position changes like Smith to second and Lux to LF. I think Ruiz will be traded and Smith will remain at catcher. I don’t see Lux moving to LF. He is a shortstop who can play second and teams don’t waste that kind of talent by putting in LF, center maybe, but not LF.
Lux is a shortstop with the following grades: speed 60, arm 50, defensive 55. Those grades are from shortstop, the most difficult position facing the plate. With that, he can play anywhere as his hit tool is his greatest strength. The Dodgers just need to make a decision. Who knows, maybe the decision is to use him a trade.
I already posted Hoese’ grades. He’s no shortstop.
It is November and Covid has never been worse. We are in fact at the moment losing this battle. With that said, pitchers and catchers report in about a hundred days. Seriously, what are the odds this thing is under control by then?
I remember that in the winter of 2014, I wrote that Corey Seager was ready and anointed him the Dodgers’ SS. Most fans disagreed! Of course, AF went out and got Jimmy Rollins, but at the end of the season, Corey took the position… for good and was the ROY in 2016.
Again, in the Winter of 2017, I said that I believed Cody Bellinger was ready. However, that was met with a lot of skepticism especially since he was blocked by A-Gon. Cody took over 1B on April 25th and was the ROY!
I am stopping short of predicting the same for Kody Hoese, simply because I was not able to watch him play like I did Corey and Cody in their final Minor League Year, but after reading what Gavin Lux said about Hoese earlier, I asked around and the people I have talked to regard him as the Dodger’s #1 Prospect now and likely ready for the show in 2021.
I still look for JT to return. I think your figure of $8M/ is about right. I don’t see anyone else offering him significantly more money than that.
I would add CT3 to your potential 2B solutions. I would lay 60/40 odds he is the 2021 opening day starter at 2B.
I like your Lux in LF idea splitting time w Pollock.
It will be an interesting off season. I don’t expect much movement, particularly with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are not going to bring in DJLM. He would cost too much. Money will be saved to sign Beuhler, Seager and Bellinger. The Dodgers believe in their farm kids anyway. Too many farm kids available to play second base.
I like the premise of this article very much but Hoese, Busch, Miller, Grove, Knack, Beeter & Mann are not ready for the show.
McKinstry has an inside track on a bench spot and some of your bullpen names could stick [de Geus], but those guys above still need seasoning.
Some FA patchwork will occur. Prices will be affordable.
There’s some good analysis right there. The only thing I don’t agree with is Hoese being ready this year. You never know though. Everyone develops differently. I think Joc’s gonna move on. He’ll get an opportunity for more ABs with another team and will probably be paid accordingly. I think JT is a reasonable bet to return if Hoese is really this close. Rios can rest JT quite a bit. But, the ideal fit would be DJLM who can play 2b and 3b allowing further development of Rios and Lux.
I really like RC Dodgers list of relievers from yesterday. Grab two or three of them and we’re good to go.