I continue to read that AF cannot sign high priced FA because they need to hold money for their prized youngsters: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler. AF has set himself up with large contracts coming off the books as these players come into their FA years. Now there is no guarantee that any of the four want to stay with LAD, but there should be sufficient salary space for each of them as long as their demands are not outlandish.
The current Dodger AAV salary structure per Spotrac is as follows:
| Player | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| – | ||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | Contract | 31,000,000 | FA | |||
| Mookie Betts | Contract | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 |
| Kenley Jansen | Contract | 16,000,000 | FA | |||
| AJ Pollock | Contract | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | FA | |
| David Price | Contract | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | FA | ||
| Max Muncy | Contract | 8,666,667 | 8,666,667 | FA | ||
| Joe Kelly | Contract | 8,333,333 | FA | |||
| Chris Taylor | Contract | 6,700,000 | FA | |||
| Cody Bellinger | Arb 2 | 13,000,000 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA | |
| Corey Seager | Arb 3 | 12,000,000 | FA | |||
| Walker Buehler | Arb 1 | 2,700,000 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA |
| Julio Urias | Arb 2 | 2,300,000 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA | |
| Austin Barnes | Arb 2 | 1,500,000 | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Scott Alexander | Arb 2 | 1.100.000 | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Dylan Floro | Arb 1 | 1,000,000 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA | |
| Minimum Salary | 17 | 9,775,000 | ||||
| Kenta Maeda | 564,000 | |||||
| – | ||||||
| Total AAV Salaries | 172,055,667 | 66,083,334 | 42,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | |
| Player Benefits | 15,500,000 | |||||
| Minor League Contracts | 2,500,000 | |||||
| – | ||||||
| Total AAV | 190,066,667 | |||||
| CBT Threshold | 210,000,000 | |||||
| CBT Space | 19,944,000 | |||||
The Dodgers currently are below the CBT threshold by nearly $20MM. There are 8 under contract, 7 with arbitration cases (amounts above estimated by Spotrac), and 17 players calculated at the minimum of $575,000. That threshold savings should be eaten up by JT and one of the 2nd tier relivers. There should be enough wiggle room remaining to acquire another reliever at the trade deadline.
That scenario pre-supposes that Gavin Lux will be the 2B. But I hope that they give the position to Lux fulltime, and let him win it or lose it on his own. The Dodgers depth is good enough to get them into the playoffs even if Lux struggles. Either Lux is going to be an AS or he isn’t. MiLB Player’s of the Year do not come to any one team very often, so he has earned the right to win or lose the job based on his play. Winning the WS should give some comfort for less “panic” in 2021.
Do the Dodgers re-sign JT? His contract 4 years ago was so team friendly that JT was one of the best players dollar for dollar in MLB. Based on his prorata contract in 2020 of $7.1MM (approximately), his four year contract paid out totaled $52.1MM. His fWAR value was placed at $114.5MM. Did JT earn his contract salary? I would conclude that he did. I see no reason why the two camps cannot come together on another team friendly contract. I would think that 2 years at $20MM with a third year option with vesting rights and a reasonable buyout would get the job done. Structure it so that much of the contract is a signing bonus and not subject to reduced salary due to a shortened season. Even as adored in LA as JT is, MLB is a business, and in these MLB economic times, $10MM per year for two years for a 36 year old 3B is not unreasonable. JT is at negative values for running, fielding, and positional. How much longer can his offense keep up his fWAR value? There are many who think he is having issues with catching up to fastballs up in the zone (so does Belli and a lot of batters). JT already looks to be more of a DH than fulltime 3B. How much will the Dodgers earmark for a DH? If no DH in NL for 2021, how much value will JT truly be? Also his character deserves some significant consideration.
Or do the Dodgers say thank you JT but we are moving on to DJLM. I was for DJLM 2 years ago. DJLM is the same age now as was JT when he signed his 4 year contract. Will DJLM age as well as JT did? Better? DJLM’s contract will exceed an amount that AF will not approach, and it will come with a loss of their 2nd draft pick and $500K international bonus $$$, something AF is not going to do. You can criticize that decision, but that is who AF is. I prefer his track record more than anyone on this site.
IMO, I would sign JT and let him share 3B with Rios. If 3B becomes a concern at trade deadline, it can be addressed then, or not.
With the current makeup, I can foresee the following season opening roster (26 man):
Starting Position Players (9):
- 1B – Max Muncy (L)
- 2B – Gavin Lux (L)
- 3B – Justin Turner (R) / Edwin Rios (L)
- SS – Corey Seager (L)
- LF – AJ Pollock (R)
- CF – Cody Bellinger (L)
- RF – Mookie Betts (R)
- C – Will Smith (R)
- DH – Edwin Rios (L) / Justin Turner (R)
Bench (4):
- Backup C – Austin Barnes (R)
- INF/OF – Zach McKinstry (L)
- INF/OF – CT3 (R)
- INF/OF – Matt Beaty (L)
Starting Pitching (5):
- Clayton Kershaw (L)
- Walker Buehler (R)
- David Price (L)
- Julio Urias (L)
- Dustin May (R)
Relievers (8):
- Kenley Jansen (R)
- Tony Gonsolin (R)
- Victor Gonzalez (L)
- Brusdar Graterol (R)
- Dylan Floro (R)
- Adam Kolarek (L)
- Joe Kelly (R)
- Scott Alexander (L) or ???
Does AF non tender Scott Alexander and replace him with a trade acquisition or FA acquisition? Or replace Alexander with Mitch White, Dennis Santana, or Josh Sborz? I like Dylan Floro, but is he a potential non-tender to free up $1MM for another reliever? Do they try and trade Joe Kelly and eat most of his salary? Adam Kolarek is pre-arbitration, so he is going to be slightly more than MLB minimum and will undoubtedly remain a Dodger.
Position player substitutions include Gavin Lux and Zach McKinstry for Joc and Kike’. I do not see a huge difference for the regular season, but both Joc and Kike’ would be missed during the playoffs.
That roster is more than competitive and will come in less than the CBT threshold. As has been discussed any number of times, build a roster to get to the playoffs. The above roster can do that at a high level.
After the 2021 season, Dodger FA include Clayton Kershaw ($31,000,000), Kenley Jansen ($16,000,000), Joe Kelly ($8,333,333), CT3 ($6,700,000), and Corey Seager (arbitration projection at $12,000,000). AAV salary savings total $74,033,333. That is more than enough to sign Seager to a multi-year $150MM+++ contract., Kershaw to another two year contract, and arbitration increases for Belli, Urias, and Buehler. Neither Jansen nor Kelly will be retained. Dodger relievers in the organization should be developed enough to join the roster. With the savings, AF could sign another FA or extend Buehler. Both Belli and Urias are Boras agents, and we know he does not like to extend, but to test FA. Or maybe he will have enough room to buy bad contracts and garner elite prospects (i.e. Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs).
Following the 2023 season, Both Belli and Urias will become FA, and Max Muncy’s, David Price, and possibly JT’s contract(s) will have expired. That will free up more than $50MM additional funds to sign both Urias and Bellinger. Quick math check…Price $15MM, Muncy $8.6MM, JT $10MM (guess), Bellinger $20MM (arbitration estimate), Urias $10MM (arbitration estimate). Eliminate JT and that is still $53.6MM (approximate).
There is bound to be some roster manipulation along the way, including potentially moving one of the “four”. If Boston can move Mookie, AF can move one of the “four”. Cleveland has already said they will be trading Francisco Lindor this winter. I expect the Cubs to move Kris Bryant this winter. Colorado is looking to trade Nolan Arenado and/or Trevor Story this winter. In these times, no player (even the elite of the elite) is guaranteed playing their entire career with one team. I am not predicting it, but just saying there is a possibility. AF could sign a FA this winter, thus exceeding the threshold, and still be in a position to drop down below the threshold next year. I do not see it happening, nor recommending, just noting that it is possible. The Dodgers are not tied to a CBT threshold this winter. But they will not cross it just to show they can.
One of the unknowns is going to be what will the threshold look like after a new CBA. I cannot see the organizations with money to just sit back and not be able to sign FA when the “have nots” are in the fold mode. If Pittsburgh, or Baltimore, or KC, or Miami, or Oakland do not want to pay for elite free agents, why should that preclude LAD or NYY, or NYM, or Philadelphia, or Boston from doing so without penalty. If teams cannot be competitive then they need to sell their team. Another alternative is MLB contraction. There is already MiLB contraction. If Pittsburgh or Baltimore do not care if they have competitive teams under the current salary requirements, fold the teams. Or eliminate the qualifying offer and let the team with the FA loss recoup via draft pick, but do not punish a team that signs a FA with the loss of a draft pick. Does that give big market teams an advantage? Sure, but that did not stop Tampa Bay from getting to the World Series.
MLB contraction of course will never happen. It is more likely that MLB will expand before they contract. But LAD and NYY and Boston and NYM and Philadelphia need to stand up to the have nots and let them know that if they do not want to compete, fine, but do not put restrictions on their pursuit of elite FA.
Bottom line is that AF has orchestrated a scenario that will allow him to field better than competitive teams, fill needs (not wants or luxuries) when necessary, and still have enough $$$ to sign all four of his elite youngsters as they are staggered over the next four years, with more than sufficient contracts coming off the books. He has been an exceptional architect of a Dodgers organization to make a run for a championship over the next decade.
Discussion (62)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Twice this week while driving home from work, I heard 2 different commentators on Serius XM say “How do we get Mike Trout into the playoffs?” One mentioned that Mike had only played in 3 playoff games in his career…… The only thing I could think of was for the Angels to trade him to the Dodgers.
Finally, Andrew Friedman’s Plan was/is to build a sustainable team who can win-year-over-year. You have to keep your Farm System strong in order to do that!
The Dodgers just won a World Series with Corey Seager at SS and are the Favorites to win the next one.
Man, crack is bad!
What makes this article so useful is that we can now visualize the financial expenditures by the Dodgers over the next five years, so this allows us to see who we can afford and how much of an impact it has on the total AAV. Now, it’s likely the CBT won’t be 210, but it’s still clear is that the Dodgers can’t afford both Seager and Lindor. It’s either/or. …both financially, but also because they play the same position.
With all of this Lindor talk, does it occur to everyone how much he will cost? If we trade for Lindor, I assume the plan is to trade Seager now rather than wait till he walks and get no return. And what kind of package of prospects is it going to take to get Lindor? Cleveland is going to want a king’s ransom. Or maybe we just wait till Lindor and Seager are both FAs and just make a bid?
Ok, so what if we get outbid in the Lindor sweepstakes by someone willing to spend stupid money? Baseball GMs are getting smarter, but there are still a few Arte Moreno’s out there willing to spend irrationally and screw everything up. At that point, team Seager will have already been alienated and that ship would have sailed.
Absolute worst case scenario: Dodgers trade for Lindor by giving up our best prospects. We don’t sign JT and move Seager to 3rd to make room for Lindor. In 2022 Seager signs with someone else. Lindor also signs somewhere else. So when we begin the season in 2022 we don’t have JT, we don’t have our top prospects, we don’t have Lindor and we don’t have Seager.
Ok, yeah…Lindor is a great defensive shortstop and all, but are we really thinking this through all the way.
Andrew Friedman acquired Betts on a “walk year.” The same could be said of Darvish and Machado. In the case of Betts, I recall reading/hearing similar sentiments before the trade rumors started coming out; however, players on “walk years” did not keep the Dodgers from making the move(s) and I certainly do not expect that to change moving forward.
I am a firm believer that the past is the best predictor of the future. While I like the idea of trading for Lindor, my stance mostly stems from Friedman’s prior interest in the player. As some may recall, he made a strong push for Lindor before eventually pursuing Betts.
I can see the Dodgers taking a flyer on any player that falls within their budget if the front office perceives it gives the organization a distinct advantage of winning another WS title.
This front office can be cold and calculated. I mean that as a compliment!
Francisco Lindor provides above average production with his bat while contributing at an elite level defensively. While Corey Seager may not be a liability with the glove, he is subpar subpar when compared to Lindor. Corey Seager’s value lies in his bat more so than with his glove. This is why I can see a scenario where the Dodgers extend Seager and move him to the hot corner. Similar to what the Padres did with Manny Machado. This is not a knock on Seager; rather, that the team improves dramatically on defense when we are able to replace Turner’s declining glove with a much younger, more athletic Corey Seager and subsequently bring in an elite defender to take over at short stop without losing much at the plate.
In terms of Bellinger, as in the case of all players, it is a risky proposition to stand pat hoping a player is able to overcome its shortcomings. If Cody is able to correct his swing and ends up putting up elite numbers once again, I trust Andrew Friedman will figure out a way to make cap space to sign him longterm. However, no one can reasonably predict whether Bellinger will be able to replicate the numbers he put up in 2019. Even the Bellinger of his MVP season struggled after the league adjusted to him during the second half of the season.
In order to provide a better picture of what I believe could happen, given Friedman’s well documented interest in Lindor, I can see the Dodgers potentially fielding the following in 2021:
C – Smith/Barnes
1B – Muncy
2B – Lux/Taylor
SS – Lindor
3B – Seager
LF – Pollock
CF – Bellinger
RF – Betts
DH – Turner (if DH implemented)
I think the Dodgers have the prospect capital to make a move for Lindor. I believe the question is not going to be whether there is going to be interest, it is going to be whether the Dodgers are willing to pay the price.
Remember when Corey Seager had a 817 OPS this time last year and everyone wanted to trade him? Why do people still want Francisco Lindor after he OPSd 750 and wasn’t coming off of hip and TJ surguries?
I like Cody Bellinger a lot but when you consider the offensive woes he has experienced stemming from the holes in his swing, I can’t help but wonder whether the Dodgers would be better off investing longterm on a player like Francisco Lindor. I am not saying we should trade Bellinger, merely considering whether we should be looking at Cody as a complimentary piece rather than a foundational player.
Steve Cohen is officially the new owner of the NYM. It did not take long as Brodie Van Wagenen and entire front office has been let go. Now will Brodie try to stay with a MLB club or go back to being a top level agent?
According to Gurnick, Turner issued an apology. Gurnick also said MLB closed the investigation and no fine or suspension has been issued..hmmm….if true it makes him much more attractive to other teams knowing he will not be lost for any period of time.
I think it was Hawkeye who mentioned the joke of Fernando Tatis, Jr. winning the Silver Slugger for SS. I could not agree more.
I think most Dodger fans would rank Corey Seager over Fernando Tatis, Jr. I would also suspect that most Padre fans would rate Tatis, Jr. over Seager. Offensively they are almost identical.
Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943, 152 OPS+: 65 hits, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 17BB vs 37K
Tatis, Jr. – .277/.366/.571/.937, 155 OPS+, 62 hits, 11 doubles, 2 triples, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 27BB vs 61 K
Now compare that to Trea Turner:
.335/.394/.588/.982, 157 OPS+, 78 hits (Led MLB), 15 doubles, 4 triples (Led NL), 12 HR, 41 RBI, 22BB vs 36K
How is Trea Turner not the winner of the Louisville Silver Slugger for SS? If the award goes to the player with the most HRs at that position, then that criterion should be clearly stated. That is the only hitting metric where Tatis Jr., was better than Turner. With Seager, Seager was better at BA/SLG/OPS, hits, doubles, BB/K ratio. Tatis Jr. was better OBP, triples, HR. But both are less favorable than the offensive numbers for Trea Turner, who I voted All MLB SS over the ChiSox Tim Anderson. What can I say, I am an NL guy.
In contrast to sbuffalo I would advocate to sign Bauer . He is looking for a one year contract and that would be just fine . That would give us the best rotation in the game by far, maybe the best in the history of the game.
Bring in Kendriks to close.
Dodgers have a golden opportunity to win again in 2021 and those two guys could do that for us. Imagine a playoff series and we sent out CK, WB, TB and DP plus having JU and DM waiting to relief.
LIneup even without JT should ensure us scoring enough runs.
Yes, financially we probable go over the luxury tax but if winning another WS it is worth the money.
Go for it, AF.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ah…nevermind about the last paragraph in my post. I was doing it in my head and forgot to subtract what I thought Buehler’s ARB value would be in 2024. I think with that, signing Buehler to an AAV something north of 30 mil is doable in 2025 while staying under the CBT. Still, I think you need a cushion to account for ARB raises for guys like Lux if they really shine, or to have the option to sign a moderately expensive Treinan or Kelly.
That’s actually really impressive if you think about it … that AF is able to pull that off – sign all of our key homegrown stars and still stay under the CBT.
And that was an especially good column, Jeff. I was going to request you post an article detailing current and future financial commitments. I’ve been wondering about that and have just been too lazy to do the research myself.
Excellent column, Jeff. Very detailed.
I’m keeping Justin Turner, maybe a two year deal. No doubt he wants to stay. Still waiting for clarity on the Dodgers moving forward, expecting an interview with Andrew Friedman soon. They are probably still assessing what 2021 is going to look like, not only from a team perspective, but financially as well. Yet they gave Mookie Betts a massive contract in the midst of the pandemic so who knows where this all leads?
The starting rotation looks pretty set with some depth to it, including the return of David Price, so my guess they may try to improve the bullpen, always an area of concern. So no Trevor Bauer.
They lost two Cy Young finalists and still won the World Series.
I agree on Gavin Lux, put him out there and let him play. MLB analysts still think he has huge upside.
The team is already loaded and really doesn’t have any real holes. Can more farm guys step up in ’21?
But I do think they will miss Joc and Kike.
Guessing they stay under the cap and not pursue a impact player unless they find something in trade that works. Maybe a bullpen pitcher or two.
No doubt AF will seek opportunity to improve the roster. Look for him to explore the released player market, someone who may want be on a championship quality and willing to take a deal. That will be an interesting market and something to pay close attention.
I don’t see DJ as an option. I would think he would get 4/20 or in that range, and he doesn’t really fill a position of need. We have two good 2nd base options. It really is time to see what Lux can do at the MLB level, and if he falters, CT3 plays a decent second base and is a dependable hitter. Of course you would need someone to fill his utility role in the OF.
“Following the 2022 season, Both Belli and Urias will become FA, and Max Muncy’s, David Price, and possibly JT’s contract(s) will expire. That will free up more than $50MM additional funds to sign both Urias and Bellinger. Quick math check…Price $15MM, Muncy $8.6MM, JT $10MM (guess), Bellinger $20MM (arbitration estimate), Urias $10MM (arbitration estimate). Eliminate JT and that is still $53.6MM (approximate).”
One thing that I note about this is that you’re assuming Muncy doesn’t get re-signed. He probably won’t, and he had an off year this last year, but what if he continues to produce like he did in 18/19 and this year’s playoffs? Do the Dodgers actually have a 1rst baseman to replace him? Hoese perhaps? … and if Muncy does continue to produce in the 3-5 annual WAR level, I would think he would be due a 4/15-20 contract on the open market at 32 years old. He’s similar to JT in this respect. I would think there’s a possibility he gets re-resigned by the club. He kind of flies under the radar because he doesn’t put up really gaudy numbers, but he averaged 5 WAR in 18/19 and, as he showed in the playoffs, he’s a BB machine.
I don’t really see the Dodgers paying Kenley and Kelly that much money as necessarily a bad thing. Look at the glass half full. Their salaries are coming off the books after next year, so that’s another 25 mil off the books the team can use to pay someone else. People keep on harping on the signings that don’t work out. “OMG, we had to pay Scott Kazmir $$$$!!”
You have to look at the job of GM like being a venture capitalist or a fund manager. Not all of the investments pan out. That’s just the law of averages. As long as you’re not committing money for really long term contracts that will keep you hamstrung, you can afford a few missteps. We’re paying Kenley for a year or two of him in decline, but we bought the game’s top closer for a while, and Kelly was one of the better relievers on the market at the time. They were still decent signings, or at least not dumb signings.
I was doing some math and contract estimations each year to the year 2024. My rough calculator estimations of what I thought Urias and others would get if the Dodgers signed him, and factoring in Buehler’s estimated ARB value, I got 194 mil. That’s 16 under the current CBT. My concern would be Buehler’s FA value in 2025, which I would assume would be 30+ mil. As is stands right now, the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to afford that with the financial commitments to their core players and still stay under the CBT.
Our bullpen as is I don’t believe is good enough to close out tough playoff games. We need another late inning closer type and there is a lot available on the market. At 50 cents on the dollar! I’d be shocked if AF doesn’t sign one. And a key this offseason will be Graterol and May improving their sliders. Too many spinners this year. Then Graterol’s K rate goes up and he could be our closer.
Aside from the fun it brings us when we sign important free agents or make a trade to obtain a great player, this team really doesn’t need much.
That’s a very strong roster you’ve shown above AC. Just imagine if Belli and Muncy have their normal years and Price pitches decently.
With all the relief pitchers on the market I would prefer to sign one of the better ones (Hendriks is probably more than AF wants to spend, but there are many other possibilities) and use Alexander’s spot in your projected roster for that arm.
One correction to your numbers shown up top: In your 2023 column under “Total AAV Salaries” it looks like you’ve misplaced a comma. I don’t think Andrew is prepared to spend 422 million in salaries.
A brutal stat that jumps out at me is the $24+ million that is going to be shelled out for Jansen and Kelly, at best those two guys are spotty effective and spotty disasterous, Dr. Jekyl or Mr. Hyde can show up on any given night. That’s a lot of clams for very undependable performers. I have more concern for the usage of Jansen, he really can’t be put into close in a pressure situation, at best he should be a 5th or 6th inning replacement, only ask him to face three batters, then let him sit down for 3 days (did I mention that is a lot of clams for an undependable performer?)
From the last subject that I didn’t get to respond to before it was closed:
I appreciate that Patch, no worries. You’re an honest poster, I’m an honest poster, we call them as we see them, and I believe we don’t have alternative motives or messages that we are trying to deliver thru the blog (“baseball been berry berry good to Peppy”. For you that remember when SNL was actually about being funny).
Yes, Patch I didn’t think the Dodgers could make it to the end with how they are constructed but they did. Maybe running into the TB pitching staff was just the right medicine for the Dodgers finally winning the last game of the post season. Overall pitching staffs, the Dodgers were superior to the Rays, I’m not sure the Dodgers would have overcome some other experienced pitching staffs in the AL, but hey they did this year and I am thrilled.
Also I’m thrilled that the Dodgers got away from all the “lefty-righty” wholesale changes to the lineup night after night in the playoffs, basically LF was the only real platoon spot in the lineup, the rest of the positions were pretty well set for the run, especially in the WS. BTW, Kike is a playoff monster, you got to have those guys to win it all, some guys just show up in the biggest moments, Kike is one of those guys (anyone remember the three bombs in the deciding game that he put the Cubs away with a few years ago?)
In case you missed it, Alex Cora is back as manager of the Red Sox.
The Yankees will re-sign DJLM. Yankee Stadium and the NL East is perfect for him, although I have no doubt he would hit well in LA. Friedman is loathe to lose a pick and International Signing Money. The Yankees need him badly as Judge and Stanton arrive at the ballpark in wheelchairs more often than not!
The Prospect Rankings are going to be WAY skewed this year as we have no way to rank them with any empirical statistics. I remain extremely hopeful on a vaccine in Early 2021 and the FDA and CDC are going to take an even more active role in monitoring the trials and rollout. We may see Spring Training pushed back a month or six weeks, but after that, I think we see something close to normal.
I don’t know DJLM, but from what I’ve seen of Turner, last gaff aside, I prefer keeping him in the organization as long as he wants to stay, right up to managing in 10 years. He and Rios sharing time at third sounds great to me.
I agree about Lux. Let him know now and start banging him grounders, 100 a day, Sunday’s off, from now until ST. 100 swings a day, against live pitching as often as possible. This was the Larry Bowa secret to success. It works.
I have no idea where the team stands on our other free agents. If those players want to test the market and leave, then I wish them well. We will be able to replace whoever it is that chooses to play elsewhere.
I trust management to get it done. I also take comfort in knowing we are the champions and they are all chasing us. Good luck with that.
Excellent article. I think we should consider upgrading Beaty & Gonsolin deserves consideration for a bullpen/swingman role.