Well the first domino fell on Thursday when Atlanta signed LHRP Will Smith for 3 years and $40MM. It is a little less than Craig Kimbrel $$$, but not much. The Braves are in a position to sign multiple FA and still be well south of the CBT threshold. I expect them to make a run at MadBum and Yasmani Grandal, and maybe Josh Donaldson. Some prognosticators have suggested with their farm system, they will make a play for Mookie Betts. Certainly not all of them, but I do not expect Atlanta to stop after Will Smith.
For the past several weeks, I have been stating that the Dodgers are $45MM below the CBT threshold before they make any trades involving any of their salaried or arbitration eligible players. Cots has the best information when it comes to player contracts and their AAV for CBT purposes and MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) is the best source for projected arbitration figures. Combined I have forecast the Dodgers to be currently at $162.7MM in AAV. Broken down:
Currently Under Contract (6 Players):
Clayton Kershaw $31.00MM
Justin Turner 16.00MM
Kenley Jansen 16.00MM
AJ Pollock 12.00MM
Joe Kelly 8.33MM
Kenta Maeda 3.13MM
Total Contract $86.46MM
Arbitration (12 Players):
Cody Bellinger $11.60MM
Pedro Baez 3.30MM
Enrique Hernandez 5.50MM
Joc Pederson 8.50MM
Yimi Garcia 1.10MM
Chris Taylor 5.00MM
Corey Seager 7.10MM
Ross Stripling 2.30MM
Austin Barnes 1.30MM
Scott Alexander 1.10MM
Max Muncy 4.60MM
Julio Urias 1.70MM
Total Arbitration $53.00MM
Remainder of 26 Man Roster
Choose 8 From:
Walker Buehler
Alex Verdugo
Will Smith
Matt Beaty
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Gavin Lux
Dylan Floro
Casey Sadler
Adam Kolarek
Projected 8 Players $ 6.00MM
Estimated Player Benefits $15.00MM
40 Man Player/Minors $ 2.25MM
Total Projected CBT Payroll $162.7MM
Amount in Excess of CBT Threshold $ 45.3MM
This is what the Dodgers can spend without exceeding the CBT threshold before any trades. I cannot see any of the arbitration players not being tendered offers, but I would expect 1-5 could be traded. Players who have been discussed as most likely to be traded include:
Joc Pederson
Ross Stripling
Austin Barnes
That is another $12.1MM that could be used to offset players acquired in trade, or if traded for prospects then those dollars could then be available for other FA. Certainly many Dodger fans would like to see Pollock moved and some would be more than fine if Corey Seager was traded. That is another $19+MM.
In addition, we have been advised that AF is not under any luxury tax cap for this season. This is important also because if Kenta Maeda remains with the team, they will not have to be careful with his starts or IP and the bonuses thus earned.
JT comes off after next season, and Kershaw and KJ the year after. I would expect JT and Kershaw to continue to be Dodgers but at considerably less rates than currently enjoyed.
Compare the Dodgers financial situation with the team that went for it all in 2019 with the trade for Zach Greinke. The Astros have spent like drunken sailors for the past couple of years and now find themselves in a bind. They continue to say they will be in on retaining Gerrit Cole, but you be the judge.
Currently Under Contract (8 Players):
Justin Verlander $ 33.00MM
Zach Greinke (Houston’s share) 24.08MM
Jose Altuve 23.36MM
Alex Bregman 20.00MM
Michael Brantley 16.00MM
Josh Reddick 13.00MM
Ryan Pressley 6.80MM
Total Under Contract $145.74MM
Arbitration or Option (10 Players):
George Springer $ 21.40MM
Brad Peacock 4.60MM
Jake Marisnick 3.00MM
Aaron Sanchez 5.60MM
Lance McCullers 4.10MM
Carlos Correa 7.40MM
Roberto Osuna 10.20MM
Joe Biagini 1.50MM
Aledyms Diaz 2.40MM
Chris Devinski (Option) 2.83MM
Total Arbitration $ 63.03MM
Remainder of 26 Man Roster:
Josh James
Kyle Tucker
Jose Urquide
Framber Valdez
Joe Smith
Hector Rondon
Yordan Alvarez
#26 (Forrest Whitley?)
Projected 8 Players $ 5.50MM
Estimated Player Benefits $ 15.00MM
40 Man Player/Minors $ 2.25MM
Total Projected CBT Payroll $230.60MM
Amount in Excess of CBT Threshold $ 22.60MM
Thus, before any roster manipulation, the Astros are significantly beyond the CBT threshold. I have read that the Astros could non tender as many as six players saving them $25.5 MM:
Jake Marisnick
Aaron Sanchez
Roberto Osuna
Joe Biagini
Aledyms Dias
Chris Devinski
Regardless, unless there are players moved with large salaries, I would not expect Houston to be looking at any of the elite free agents. I can see one player who is one year from reaching FA status that could save them significant dollars…George Springer. Mookie Betts has been discussed as possible trade consideration for LAD (and others). Might George Springer also get that consideration? As a Dodgers fan and a huge fan of a former LSU SS, I wouldn’t be upset if the Astros decided to trade Alex Bregman. I have been a fan of Bregman’s since his junior year at LSU, knowing LAD would never get him. But he would look great in Dodger Blue. I know it will never happen, but I can dream can’t I?
Using the same approach, some of the other potential high spenders this year:
Boston – $221.925 – $13.925 in excess of CBT Threshold
NYY – $212.316 – $4.316 in excess of CBT Threshold
Cubs – $211.683 – $3.683 in excess of CBT Threshold
Phils – $189.277 – $18.723 short of CBT Threshold
Nats – $125.997 – $82.003 short of CBT Threshold
Boston is making if a point to get below the threshold, and one scenario has them non-tendering Jackie Bradley Jr. and saving $11.000. There are other potential non-tenders that could conceivably get them below the threshold. I would also expect them to look to move Nathan Eovaldi and his $17.0 MM contract. Eovaldi has 3 more years at $17.0MM per year or $51MM. That is just a bad contract. As is Chris Sale’s. The Red Sox have two more years of Dustin Pedroia, who may never play again, at $13.75 each. Moving Mookie Betts gives them a lot of breathing room financially, but how do they replace him.
NYY has a good farm system and has options at the ML level to get below the CBT Threshold. I doubt NYY is concerned with the tax, but they will still try to get underneath it. I would expect Giancarlo Stanton to be shopped. Regardless of where they are contractually, I fully expect them to be in on Gerrit Cole and perhaps Zach Wheeler. They have also shown interest in MadBum, but I doubt that the interest is reciprocated.
The Cubs can get under the threshold by non-tendering Addison Russell which is very much expected. They are also considering moving Wilson Contreras. But that is more of a move for additional prospects as his arbitration projection is $4.5MM. I see no possibility that they will move Kris Bryant, but if they did, that would go a long way in helping with their farm pipeline.
The Nats are not close, but they certainly have the financial strength needed to re-sign either or both of Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. I think Strasburg is the most likely to re-sign, but they are going to try and re-sign both.
The Phillies continue to say they want to spend stupid money. They need top of the rotation starting pitching but are currently $18.723 short of the CBT threshold. I fully expect Philadelphia to non-tender Cesar Hernandez, and that will give them an approximate additional $11.8MM. They are going to have to trim additional personnel to be able to even consider Gerrit Cole. But Zach Wheeler and MadBum are definite possibilities.
I still expect to see MadBum in Atlanta. And I see no reason why they cannot outbid Brewers or Reds for Grandal.
I was wondering why so many pundits were linking Ryu to Texas, and then read that Shin-Soo Choo was lobbying the ownership group hard for Ryu. In addition, Chan Ho Park left LAD and signed a FA contract with Texas. The Rangers organization has been very accommodating and inviting for Korean ball players. Ryu said it would be awesome to be able to play with Choo. I also expect to see either Rendon or Donaldson sign with Texas. Texas is currently at a $104.7MM CBT payroll, and they have been as high as $166MM 2 years ago. Rendon and Ryu will help them to fill that new stadium and will not hurt them financially.
This figures to be a very fun hot stove league, and I expect a lot of teams to be looking to improve themselves via FA and/or trade, including our very own LAD. AF has been pointing to this winter to make some significant upgrades, and has the financial wherewithal to make it happen. But he will not be stupid. He has a value for each of the FA candidates, and a value for any significant player that could be acquired via trade. He will not deviate much from those values. Fans may not like it, but he will be in on Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Josh Donaldson, and he will walk away if the price gets out of control. I would think that his best chance to score a significant upgrade would be Anthony Rendon who has said he wants a shorter term, higher AAV contract, exactly what AF prefers.
Now that Will Smith the Pitcher has opened the Hot Stove League, let the games begin.
Discussion (36)
Disagree, not disagreeable
If we are looking at WAR as a predictor, at age 23, Eric Hosmer also posted a 3.1 WAR.
I’m digging the optimism with the Yelich comp.
With all due respect Dfan, I like SCB’s comps better, although I don’t ever see Verdugo becoming the home run hitter that Yelich has turned into.
Verdugo is not in the same class as Seager, Urias or Bellinger. Alex Verdugo has shown good bat to ball skills at the major league level, but lacks the power to justify a corner outfield position on a team like the Dodgers. A player with Verdugo’s offensive skillset needs to handle centerfield to merit a spot on a top shelf team like the Dodgers.
I sincerely hope I am wrong about Verdugo, but once it is all said and done I foresee a Josh Reddick type threshold or an Eric Hosmer type ceiling for this kid.
Part of the reason the Dodgers did not trade for Sale, Yelich, Realmuto, Cole, Hamels, and others is that AF was loathe to include Seager, Urias, Bellinger, and Verdugo in any potential deals.
To think that somehow he is now going to trade Verdugo is silly.
I just don’t see the Dodgers trading Verdugo, a really good contact hitter with developing power and a pretty good defensive outfielder with a big time arm. Still think AJ Pollock is a pretty good outfielder. He can still run and has power. Had a really good second half. Not sure they would want to trade him. Dodgers outfield is not really an issue. Betts? Only one year and Boston probably thinks he has more value than most potential trading partners. We bailed them out with the Punto trade and all those bad contracts. I wouldn’t do that again. That was an ownership generated deal, not sure Friedman would have done that. Plus circumstances have changed. If the Dodgers outfield had a position or two open, Castellanos in left would make perfect sense. But right now it’s overcrowded and there is a possibility that Gavin Lux plays some outfield if the Dodgers sign Rendon or Donaldson and move Turner to first. I definitely like Mark’s rotation, but would Cole’s signing mean the Dodgers doing something stupid? Will need to wait for Friedman to determine that. Stupid or not, I like the idea of signing Cole, but it comes with high risk and obviously a lot of money. But if he stays healthy and maintains his current form, wow. Stupid becomes off them charts brilliant. No idea who Díaz has become so it’s a tough call on any trade for him. Just can’t see the Indians trading Lindor. They’re still very competitive.
It’s fun spending other people’s money! Clearly, the Dodgers have some money to spend, and I hope they do. As AC has pointed out several times in the past, there have been times when it appeared the Dodgers could have pulled the trigger on a trade or free agent and the didn’t (Cole, Sales, Yelich, among others), for reasons known only to the front office. I hope this off season is different, but my hopes are not particularly optimistic. Let’s go bold, and let’s do it quickly.
I’m kind of neutral on Casty, but something inside of me is rooting for it to happen just so we can see if you were right. On the other hand, having to listen to you tell us how you were right ……………………………………………. 🙂
I think we’re more or less on the same page with regard to guys we think are expendable and who could bring us value back in trades: Joc, Strip, Maeda, Kike (I’d prefer to keep CT3 and trade Kike). I would also add Rios to the list and, although I’m a Beaty fan I would trade him in the right deal if Joc is still here. If Joc is traded, I think Beaty is a valuable piece off the bench.
Interesting article on Nicholas Castellanos:
://www.mlb.com/news/nicholas-castellanos-rumors
The Dodgers are the most successful team in employing the shift and I believe they could “hide” him in LF. He costs nothing in the terms of talent, does not require a forfeited draft pick and would dramatically improve the RH balance of the team.
This leaves Joc Pederson, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling and Kike Hernandez or CT3 as trade material and you could get a couple of pretty good relievers for them.
How about Maeda and Hernandez for Edwin Diaz? The Mets could use another starter and they need a CF’er.
If they prefer CT3, so be it. Maeda is going to be a malcontent if he is not starting and I am frankly tired of seeing that silly little grin he exhibits when he gives up a gopher ball. Diaz is worth trying to “fix.” Shoot, I’d throw Sprip or Joc in the deal if I had to.
Next, trade Joc and chicken Strip for another reliever… LeClerc, Iglesis, Lorenzon, et al.
Then, if you wanted to sign Cole as your dope-fiend move you could.
Rotation:
1. Cole
2. Buehler
3. Urias
4. Kershaw
5. May
Lineup:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Bellinger CF
3. Turner 3B
4. Muncy 1B
5. Castellanos LF
6. Seager SS
7. Smith C
8. Lux 2B
Bench: Pollock, Beaty, Kike or CT3, Rios, Barnes
Diaz and another reliever compete with Jansen and then there are Gonsolin and de Geus and Baez and all the rest!
Betts and Lindor are both thinking $300M contracts are in their future.
To get righty bats:
Maeda to Mariners for Hanager (yep, still want him)
Sign Rendon.
To get relievers:
Trade Verdugo to Mets for Diaz.
For salary relief:
Trade Pollock, Gonsolin, $$ to Pirates for Archer
This is off the subject matter of the well done article by AC, as usual, but with the holidays coming up, I wanted to dedicate this to everyone who lost someone.
The First Christmas After You Lose Someone Is Hard from Pinterest
You won’t feel like celebrating, but you’ll go along with it for the kids, for the family. It will hurt. The presents not bought. The chair not sat in. The memories of past Christmases that threaten to suck the joy out of the day.
But you will get through it. You may even raise a smile between the tears. If you can, thank God for the Christmases you had with them. Light a candle. Cry. Start a tradition in their memory. And remember, the love you shared through the holidays.
This is the beginning of the end for the Astros. Nice run, a little cheating and one trophy. Losing their best pitcher, another really good starting pitcher, stuck with two old expensive starting pitchers, losing 275 innings of relief pitching. They’re screwed. No tears you cheating bastards!
The Yankees are right up against the CBT. I can’t imagine how they’re gonna get those starting pitchers they desperately need.
The Nats have a ton of space, but they also don’t have any players. It seems like half of their 40 man are free agents.
With 45M of our own cap space, Donaldson and Wheeler’s projected salaries would fit nicely. Cole OR Rendon would certainly fit, both of them with some creativity. Let’s hope AF hits a homer.
The Dodgers are one of the very few teams that can take on the type of payroll the Red Sox are looking to shed. Between Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. the Red Sox could potentially be in line to spend $40M in 2020 on both players. The Dodgers are in a very unique situation where they possess the financial resources and prospects to make a deal like this happen. Obviously, acquiring two outfielders would likely require the Dodgers to trade AJ Pollock, unless Betts is moved back to second base. Perhaps, the Dodgers could offer AJ Pollock, Alex Verdugo, Tony Gonsolin, Jeter Downs and Matt Beaty.
The Dodgers would be giving up a lot of cheap major league ready talent, but a chance to potentially field an outfield of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr and Cody Bellinger should make this one of the top defensive outfields in the game.
Interesting column. Kenta Maeda certainly qualifies as an unhappy player. It’s not about money, according to his agent, but his role. He wants to be a starting pitcher. Apparently the Dodgers attempted to resolve the money issue, but it was rejected. His best role for the Dodgers is absolutely out of the bullpen. Depending on how the winter goes (will Ryu and Hill return or another free agent starter join the rotation), Maeda could be looking at a long stint in the bullpen. Julio Urias will enter spring training as a starter with Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin competing for starts. Does that make Maeda a prime trade piece?
He would no doubt bring a fair return since he would be a number three on most teams
and his salary adds to his value. I’m sure the Dodgers would like to keep him for those reasons, but they also don’t need a disgruntled player, one who is making noise in November. At this point, would anybody be surprised if he was traded?
Great article! Good info w/o goofy prognostications . A very fair assessment, especially if the approach AF will take. Personally I find traded far more compelling than just purchasing a free agent , especially when one trade leads to another.