It s Not All About Bryce Harper

The Harper contract was said to be front loaded.

If the Phillies matched the Dodgers offer for the first 4 years at $45M that’s $180M.

If the second 4 years is at $30M that’s $120M.

If the last 5 years are at $6M that’s $30M.

The AAV is $25.4M. And who knows what the CBT will be then.

Is that all that crazy?

Verdugo’s job to lose. If he doesn’t produce some offense consistently this ST, I can only think the platoon will be back. Verdugo looked comfortable in RF last season. His arm is good and he’s got some speed. For me, it would be choice of Verdugo or Pollock as the leadoff batter. 2B seems like another platoon season but I’m hoping they give the chance to Kike. I’m not going to be pissed if we see some platooning again. If guys can’t hit LHP, I will know that we still have a ways to go to either acquire balanced talent or promote the talent from the farm. Lux looks pretty good to make 2B. Can our new hitting coaches get players like Joc to hit LHP? Is it really that hard to teach?

12 position players:

C–Barnes/Martin

1B–Muncy/Freese

2B–Kikè/Miller

SS–Seager

3B–Turner

LF–Joc/Taylor

CF–Pollock

RF–Bellinger

With 13 pitchers, Verdugo could be on the outside looking in. Seager’s health is the X-factor.

How different our discussions would be today if it were the Dodgers who had offered Harper the contract the Phillies did…and he had accepted. So glad he is now their headache for the next 13 years.

Did everyone hear Jaime Jarrin’s wife died today, and he suffered a heart attack too today?

Mark

your article is really quite good. I don’t understand the “ham” analogy though.

My question is not about Harper, it is about Matt Beaty who always seems to rack it up in spring training and have a nice season in the minors, and also is highly rated, but still doesn’t get a lot of buzz. Is there much talk going on about him possibly breaking the squad?

It’s only money but the following players make the ML minimum of $555K this year:

Cody

Buehler

Muncy

Barnes

Strip

Verdugo

Urias

Alexander

Shaggy

There’s more young players on the way too so the team had room and was willing to throw big $$ at Harper. $45M per year is 9 times all those players combined. I am glad he turned it down but surprised it was even offered.

Harper took the Greinke route and chose the money. That is about 150 mil more than the Dodgers offered if true. Let’s say he had taken the Dodgers offer and at the age of thirty become a free agent again. He would have 9 years to make the 150 million more that the Phillies offered. That would have certainly been risky for him so he chose to go to a team it seems he really didn’t want to play for. I don’t know what I would have done but I can’t fault him for his decision. The Phillies have improved their team tremendously so far with Kimbrel still out there. For his sake I hope he performs or he will be treated roughly in philly. He should be in a position to win with the Phillies. As for the Dodgers, well they saved money and probably didn’t expect Harper to take their offer anyway. It was well documented that he was not going to take a short term deal. So why did the Dodgers bother? AF said they are always trying to improve so apparently he felt the Dodgers would be better with him than without. I happen to agree. So we are going to have to figure out how to win without the best players because we are not going to make any dope fiend moves. We have some very good players and sustained success but we havent done as much to improve as the Phillies, cards, and nationalsto name a few.. We have improved by eliminating attitude, adding Kelly, on paper a rh hitting pollock, re-signing ryu, getting urias healthy, 2nd year of buehler, a healthy seager a top 5 player, and I could go on. However, I think the biggest improvement will be not having a World Series hangover. We did last year. Roberts decided to slow walk and rest on the laurels of the year before, a turner injury, Jansen not ready, unsteady bullpen, loss of seager, and we were hanging on for dear life. But, this year I think we are recovering from an embarrassing World Series, have some new blood, more healthy, a year of experience in the bp, a better attitude, we have a few comeback players, and will get off to a better start with a little more feel of urgency and not complacency. The Dodgers could roll this year.

I would have taken the $45 AAV. What a dumb$h!t!

I can’t believe some guys are actually bummed we didn’t get Harper. At the price the Phillies paid? Are you friggin’ kidding me?!?! Going to insert Marks go to phrase “DOPE FIEND MOVE!!!”. Phillies talked about spending “stupid” money, and that’s what they did. How in the HELL did Borass get 13 years out of them? When all the smoke has cleared and the rose colored glasses have worn out, you have overpaid for a good hitter not named Trout or Arenado and a very marginal defender who would be best served in left field. Like my son said today,”Harper makes playing right field look hard”. Mark my words, just like the D-Bags and Greinke, in about 4 years you will hear the Phillies front office bitching about limited financial flexibility because of Harpers contract, asking for someone to take the boat anchor off their chests. And if I hear the phrase “Generational talent” one more time about this guy, I’m gonna hurl. If Brooklyn Dodger is correct in quoting Morosi, I can sleep at night. Notice that we only offered 4 years? That’s because right around that time the contract starts going south (See Pujols and Greinke, and probably A-Rod with the Yankees). This shows me that all the Freidman bashers need to step back, he didn’t go “cheap”, he just didn’t want to screw his team for the next 10 years. I was kind of hoping the Giants would take the bait, but it looks like Farhan did the same thing Freidman did and walked away from the boat anchor. Totally at peace with this.

Being reported by Morosi that the Dodgers offered Harper a 4-year deal for $180 million, a $45 million AAV. So really, it’s not so much money, as it is the Dodgers’ unwillingness to do long term deals.

Can we stop Harping and get back to meaningless spring training games?

I’m giving Brad Miller a legit shot to make the team. Depending on a lot of things (who plays 2b, does Verdugo make the roster, is Seager healthy, do we carry 13 pitchers), he could very well be Freese’s counterpart as an IF bench piece. Taylor and Kikė are both great but they might be starting a lot. Miller could fit as a LH bat and additional utility player. Eager to see him.

AF was willing to pay Harper as much as he thought Harper was worth. The bottomline is AF thought Harper was worth less to the Dodgers than the the Phillies thought he was worth to them.

Bryce Harper thought what the Phillies had to offer was worth more to him then what the Dodgers were offering.

Pretty much the way it goes.

Great effort PalmDale…

Now we get to business with the kids and vets we got… Sweet

Arty Moreno will sign Mike… It will mean more billboards for him..

This sums up everything. A lot of fans dont care about being hamstrung by a contract. We want a title.

The 13-year length of Harper’s contract is insane. The $330-million value is crazy.

You know what’s also insane? The Dodgers collecting more than $8 billion on a television contract that essentially keeps the games out of the homes of the majority of Angelenos.

You know what’s also crazy? The Dodgers generally raising prices even though the team continually falls short of raising a championship flag. This year, for example, advance parking rates have increased from $15 to $17, with day-of-game parking still at $25.

You know how much general parking costs at an Angels game in Anaheim? Ten bucks.

According to Team Marketing Report, the cost of taking a family of four to a Dodgers game has jumped 31% since the first full year of Guggenheim’s ownership in 2013. That’s an increase of one-third with a championship payoff of zero.

The Dodgers blinked, and now you have to blink and realize the truth.

While Andrew Friedman and his crew have admirably built six consecutive West Division champions and two consecutive World Series teams, an organization with buckets of chips will not push them all in for a shot at one big pot.

In his five years here, Friedman has never spent more than $60 million for a free agent from outside the organization. Even when he has paid big money to retain the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, he’s never paid out more than $91 million. Those are outrageous sums, of course, but in the high-priced world of baseball’s top free agents, that just doesn’t play.

Make no mistake, the Dodgers’ method of building from within and making a big splash at the trade deadline — Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Rich Hill — has worked. They are always playing in October. Once there, they always have legitimate title aspirations. They generally fight to the finish line. Two seasons ago they finished one win short. Last year, three wins short. It’s indeed tough to blame the lack of a big-time free agent for Darvish’s meltdown, Cody Bellinger’s swing or Hill’s departure in the seventh inning.

It’s worked, but it’s not worked well enough, and it’s tough to think they’re not doing everything they can to win that last series, that last game, that final pitch. In a star-driven town where the most popular franchise brings in LeBron James and actually celebrates the chance to spend more big money, it’s hard to swallow the notion that the Dodgers would forsake a chance at even one more win to watch their wallet.

One of baseball’s richest franchises pursuing a willing recruit like Harper and then losing him strictly over his salary demands just doesn’t equate. Harper almost certainly won’t be worth $330 million. He certainly wouldn’t have hurt, though, and it certainly would have been worth it to frustrated Dodger fans to find out.

The word is that the Dodgers might have gone as high as five years and $225 million for Harper. The guess here is that he would have taken less money to come to Los Angeles, considering it easily was his first choice. Couldn’t there have been a compromise in there somewhere?

Now Harper takes his talents to a place where some media and fans mercilessly ripped him earlier this week when it appeared they had lost him to the Dodgers. One talk show host tweeted that Harper “can go to hell.’’ A talk show caller said he wanted to spit on him.

Dodgers fans would have loved him, but the Dodgers won’t pay for him, so now they will prepare for the 2019 season without him, another solid team playing in a lousy division, probable West champions again, but beyond that?

There’s little buzz. There’s dwindling patience. A.J. Pollock is their big free-agent acquisition, but can the injury-prone outfielder stay on the field? Friedman probably will do something big again at midseason and make it work. But will it work well enough?

If it doesn’t work again, well, next winter they can always spend big on Colorado’s Nolan Arenado … nah, he just re-signed there. OK, then they can spend big on … ah, forget it.

Once again, when it comes to bringing a star to Hollywood, the Dodgers are more about raising prices than raising hopes.

I totally get and understand if the F.O. doesn’t think there is value is signing players to long free agent contracts. Certainly, Friedman & Co. have put together an extremely talented roster without compromising their principles.

I also think the best way to build a strong organization is through drafting, international signings, and player development. Philosophically, I’d much rather have a team of [mostly] homegrown players than a constantly rotating group of mercenaries plugged in to fill roster spots.

That said, there are times when you need to take a moon shot, to use the expression often ascribed to Elon Musk [someone once called him a “walking moonshot” due to his willingness to aim high]. I don’t think we quite did it with Yu Darvish; we pretty much did with Machado; and we certainly didn’t with Kershaw [post opt-out].

I believe we will continue to go year-to-year with our arb.-eligible players to help keep the team AAV down. I guess at some point we may be faced with the choice of whether to give a large contract to Seager/Bellinger/Buehler. When that time comes, we will have no advantage over other teams other than familiarity and a small window when only we can make an offer.

I trust that we know what we’re looking for in a player and we know what price we’re willing to spend. Obviously this process was played out this off-season and I’m sure Friedman & Co. are satisfied with the outcome.

As fans though, I think we collectively might be feeling a bit sold short. After two near-misses on a championship, the road just gets harder from here. There are no points given for getting close. We have the same hill to climb and now have to compete with a whole new set of competitors, some with more money to spend and some with even deeper farm systems.

All the pressure right now is on the players on the field, which is as it should be. I expect this team to be very good and come out of the gates very sharp. Roberts knows from last year you can’t just “activate” and make the playoffs. That honor will have to be earned.

Today is not a setback nor is it a wake-up call. It’s nothing more than a vote of confidence in the guys we have and the guys we have coming up behind them. All our solutions are currently in-house.

Looks like we have a new leadoff hitter

Pollock isn’t perfect in that role but I like having someone who isn’t platooned

Are we going to be in on trout? Absolutely!! We will meet with his agent, we will talk about what a generational player he is, we will then offer 5 years at 20 million. If he doesn’t accept that dope fiend money then we will sign Jose Martinez right out from under the Cards! Maybe not he is not a free agent for another year so we might have to settle for a harder working puig! While we are at it if kershaw has tommy john we might extend him for another 3 years. Seriously, why are the players whining with this contract, machado, Corbin, kershaw, plenty of money has been spent on free agents. It was exciting but I am just glad Arenado went ahead and signed so we don’t have to follow the free agency. No, we will not be in on trout or any other long term free agent unless they are named seager or bellinger.

My sons are 15….They will be 28 at end of Harper’s contract….I was a little upset that we did not “win” the auction but I am not sure 13/330 Mil is winning. At least he is not a Giant.

No doubt that the Dodgers help bid up the price for Harper, forcing the Phillies owner to spend “stupid money” to get him. Taking a player out to his age 38 season is not advisable. No doubt, the amount of money spent in the later years of the contract will not seem as much then as it does now, but still it will be a significant amount in any case.

Boras reportedly said that Harper had an offer(s) for a shorter term worth a $45 million AAV. If so, and the Dodgers made such an offer, then it is reasonable to speculate that should an opportunity present itself during the coming season, the Dodgers will likely have the financial flexibility to take advantage.

My last Harper comment is I bet we offered 3 years $135 mil.

Well my uncle took a message and he wrote it on the wall……

I’ll re-visit today’s signing tomorrow. I just arrived at John Wayne to fly home with a prior stop and In n Out Burger.

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James talks about losing players – We did not lose Harper. Fans may have lost Harper, but like Greinke, Manny, Chapman and others, the Dodgers did not “lose” them. They chose not to pay what they wanted. That’s not a loss – it’s a gain.

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After 4 years of AF, some of you still do not get it. The only correlation between signing free agents to long term huge contracts is a correlation to being mediocre! Watch and learn…. after 4 years you should have already figured it out… but… there’s still hope.

Well that was fun! Congratulations to Bryce Harper and that big fat contract. I’m surprised that he took way less AAV than Nolan and Manny for extra years. I think that works in the Phillies favor with less of a CBT CAP hit. Like Albert, those years on the back end will be excruciating. Unlike Albert, at least they will get some productive years out of it.

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From a fan’s perspective, it would be great to get a difference make of Harper’s caliber. But, as fans, we don’t always know what’s best. Time will tell how this works out. It looked like he wanted to be a Dodger, but money got in the way and he had to make a decision between money, winning, and location. It looks like we have an idea about what’s most important to him.

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I gave up hope with the Phillies rumors about two weeks ago and got sucked back in with “the visit” in the beginning of the week. Now, the team looks settled again. Joc / Alex and the empty promises of less platoons. Pitching looked great until Kershaw broke yet again. The Padres and Rockies have larger payroll, but still not enough to seriously threaten us. The AL powerhouses Astros and Red Sox look a little weaker and the Yankees look a bit stronger. The Nats are very good, The Mets might surprise, The Braves and Cardinals improved on paper, but could take a step back. The Brewers are pretenders. The Phillies are still gonna suck.

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Ready for another Yankees v Dodgers World Series? I know I am.

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Kershaw reported feeling better after today’s 5 minutes of catch. So, there’s something positive.

Now I will enjoy watching Harper play at Dodger Stadium

How do you not ask for opt outs in a 13 year contract, especially with a 13 year contract in Philadelphia where the fans can turn on you at a moment’s notice. Supposedly the contract is front loaded so he gets more money in the earlier years which is another reason to demand one or more opt outs (after you’ve gotten the big years paid to you). As far as the 13 year length is concerned, that was just Boras doing the Phils a favor. He told them they needed to beat the $325 mil Stanton contract so they asked for the extra 3 years to reduce the AAV. That helps the Phils much more than it does Harper.

I guess making a deal for Harper was a no-brainer after all, at least for A.F.

Everyone Joe had a good question, can the Phillies afford Trout too?

They lost Realmuto to the phillies because tight with prospects. They lost Harper to phillies tight with money. Lost Stanton to Yankees. Lost chapman to cubs. List goes on and on. They do realize they will have to beat the phillies to get to the world series. So they cant Nolan anymore. Kershaw is hurt again. Dodgers ownership sucks with Tv deal and getting the Dodgers over the hump. But we signed a guy to a minor league contract today. Lost Greinke to the snakes too. I know everyone will have excuses. Tiresome to lose players.

Now that is indeed a dope fiend move by the Phillies. I was hoping the FO would sign him but only with a larger AAV short term deal. Borasss played the west coast bent to his advantage and got the Phillies to extend the total number of years.

Bryce would have looked good in Dodger blue but now it’s time to focus on the guys we got and I’m hoping for a big Verdugo year.

To channel my inner Mark T. -“this is a dope fiend move!!!”

For BH it’s good. His statistics should take a bump up in Philadelphia. Balls fly out of that yard.

I for one am relieved he went elsewhere. I warned all of you about Harper the man not the player. Boras played us to get higher offers, maybe he returns a favor when it’s time to extend Cory, Cody and Urias…..Nahh!

Wow phillies are idiot’s hahahaha 13 years no way

Just breaking Harper to Phillies

Urgh! I feel jilted.

Anchors Away, music to my ears

Yeah, he got over $325mil. It’s ok now we can move on

Phillies got him

Welp

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/phillies-reportedly-agree-to-sign-bryce-harper.html

And in other exciting news. Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to throw a baseball today to see if his arm remains attached at the shoulder.

Zach Willeman is ranked #20 in the Baseball America handbook. That’s a surprisingly aggressive ranking. Must be that fastball.

Also, starting to feel Cartaya could be top ten easy by the end of the year. One of the highest upside guys we have, although very young.

And Urias . . . trying to stay calm but he could be the story of the whole season if healthy.

Minor aggravation: I wish Verdugo would lose those red sliding gloves and put on some Dodger Blue ones.

I’m looking forward to my annual trip north to AT&T park. Hope to watch Harper while there. Doubt he’ll be as much fun to watch as Hunter was.

I totally agree with Mark, if we can get Harper for the deal Friedman wants, he will help this team win.

But this is all on Harper, not the Dodgers.

After your making that much money, I would think you would go where you think you would be the most happiest to play.

Harper makes a lot of money off promotions alone, and he could make even more money in LA.

The Giants will soon have to start rebuilding, and Harper’s offensive numbers, will be somewhat diminished, in that big park in SF.

And it is obvious that Harper doesn’t want to go to the Phillies or he would already be at the Phillies spring training facility.

We will be ok either way, but the Giants certainly won’t, because either way, they are not going anywhere.

Chris Camello of rebel sports tweeted that his sources have told him that the Dodgers have offered 10 years to Harper. Camello broke JT and Kenley’s signing 24 hrs before the talking heads.

Just hearing about Brad Miller signing for the first time. Great news. I’ve been worried about our IF depth, especially up the middle. While we can rattle off names to back up OF spots, IF is harder to do. I expect we’ll see him suited up in blue at some point this season. If not, good depth to have.

I know it’s early, but MJRod nailed it and yes we are blessed with our depth…

I too don’t care about all the Harper rumors…

Continued success in ST and stay healthy… Booyah…

HARPER 2018 Season WAR was 1.3 Lets assume its an aberration and we go with his avg. season WAR of 3.9

JOC’s 2018 Season WAR was 2.3 . He will make $5M. Are you going to pay an extra $35M for 2 WAR??

How can it make sense? The math does not add up. The team would be financially constrained and would be hobbled in its ability to make other moves as needed. Let the Giants pay him $350 for 10 yrs.

Yes, the Dodgers are loaded. They should easily win the NL West and probably make it to a third World Series. Do they need Harper? Absolutely. Arenado is off the board now and who else is available in 2020 or 2021? When you look at the Dodger farm system, where is the big outfield bat? Some pretty good catchers, some infielders and a bunch of pitchers. Will there be a better bat available in trade or free agency than Harper in the next few years? The Dodgers spend something like 34 percent of their revenue on player payroll, while most teams spend around 44 percent. So what are they going to spend the money on? Every year ticket prices go up and next year the payroll drops dramatically. Does anybody believe they won’t raise prices again next year? They’ve done it five or six years in a row. Harper is fun to watch, an exciting player made for the LA market. Hey, it has been 30 years since they’ve won a World Series. Having a player with Harper’s skill set can only help. Again, with Arenado off the board and a boatload of money coming off the books in 2020, it just makes too much sense to sign Harper.

Another inch and a half yesterday so it is official 40 inches of show this month ranking February 2019 4th for the most snow in February since 1898,but baseball is being played. Verdugo and Garlick are looking very good at this point.

I’m tired of all the “Harper talk!” Sign him… don’t sign him, it doesn’t matter, the Dodgers are loaded. But I do find the Miller signing curious. Does this mean the Dodgers are not comfortable with CT3 at 2B? Could Muncy be their best option at 2B? If the Dodgers sign Harper, do they let Verdugo play right field and move Bellinger back to 1B? I think Bellinger is an All Star 1B, even better than Adrian Gonzales was in his prime!

Good time last night Mark. Great to meet the guys and thanks again for that tequila! I”ll return the favor when we meet up at the Ravine (and that offer is extended to everyone else on this board!)

Now let’s get Bryce signed today and get things going .

Anyone know what happened to Bobbie17?

No, I don’t go to auctions and I’ve never bid on anything on Ebay.

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When are you actually going to LA? Irvine, Temecula, Valencia? At least drive up to the Stadium, maybe have a meal in China Town. Go see a freaking beach and gaze out into the Pacific for God’s sake! It’s good for your soul. If you come down to Surf City, I’ll buy you and your crew a round.

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I was wondering what the hell happened this morning. After reading this I understand. Too much Tequila and you phoned it in.

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Have fun on the rest of your trip. Bummer that you chose to visit in our coldest February ever. This will be the first time in 140 years that we didn’t reach 70 degrees in February.

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How much fun are you having driving our glorious freeways? For some real fun, drive on the 405 between LA and Irvine at 4PM.

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Fun fact, if you start at midnight, you can drive from Orange County airport, to Long Beach, to LAX, to Burbank to Ontario hitting 5 airports in less than 2 hours. If you start at 4PM you can’t get from SNA to LAX.

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I hope you’re having a great trip. With a little luck, Harper will have signed with the good guys before you leave!

From the Washington post:

That brings us to Harper. His contribution in 2019 is estimated to be 3.6 fWAR which may sound low to some but consider that’s in line with his production over the past few years. Using that 2019 estimate as our starting point, Harper’s 10-year value is 26.7 fWAR over the next decade, which should carry a price tag of $239.8 million.

Main point of the article was that Harper is no where near worth 300 million. In addition, of the teams currently in pursuit of Harper, Dodger stadium is the best for left handed power hitters (with the Giants park being the worst).

Completely agree with your comments on Harper, Mark. Sometimes the winner is the loser. At the right price/years, fine, otherwise pass.

I had the same feeling as you when I saw the Brad Miller signing. Are we setting up for a trade? I think the most logical thought would be that we would be sending out Kike, CT3 or Muncy if that were the case. Needless to say, Miller would be a poor replacement for any of them, but they would only be sent out in a major deal so we’d have to see what we got back before deciding how happy we were with the deal. On the other hand, Miller could just be AAA filler. Boring, but maybe the most desirable option.