Dodger Prospect Chat with Kyle Glaser (BA)

Dodger fans are no different than other teams’ fans.  They read what team personnel say about their prospects and build them up to be can’t miss.  I like to watch them play, see videos, and read from objective baseball pundits.  Baseball America is that kind of publication.  In short scouting reports, they tell the fan all they want to hear.  But in chats, the pundits can be more objective.  Kyle Glaser of Baseball America is one of the best.  Below are some of his comments on various Dodger prospects.

From an overall standpoint, when asked what Dodger prospects are considered untouchable.  His reply, 

“None of these players are untouchable. No one is ever really untouchable, but no one in this top 10 rises to the level of a prospect you really, really, really don’t want to trade (i.e. Wander Franco, Adley Rutschmann, Julio Rodriguez etc.). There’s a lot of guys you like and feel like can be good big leaguers, but if the right deal is there, any one of them can and should be on the table.”

With respect to the organization, and the belief that the Dodgers may have dipped a bit:

“The top of the Dodgers system isn’t as strong but it’s for the right reasons – they graduated their top four prospects last year to the majors, which is the point of all this. The strength of the system this year is its depth. You go all the way down to the late 20s and you’re looking at players who might be top 10 in some other systems. It’s a really good system still with a lot of good players. As for the Top 100, I think we’ll see the top three in there, but that’s my opinion and my colleagues may or may not agree. We’ll see how the final list shakes out once everyone’s input is gathered and front office officials provide their feedback.”

For players not considered in the Top Ten…

“Alex De Jesus, Kendall Williams, Jimmy Lewis, Leonel Valera, Landon Knack, Jerming Rosario, Yeiner Fernandez, Nick Robertson…all are breakout candidates who could shoot up in the next year. (Some of those guys are in the top 30, some aren’t.) Those are just the main candidates. This system is insanely deep in quality players who could break out in a big way.”

Outfielders: 

The Dodgers still need that standout OF in their current system.   I have already written his comments on Luis Rodriguez and Jake Vogel.

He has no hopes for Jeren Kendall.  When asked if Kendall had made enough adjustments to get back on the radar:

He did not. It was a lot of the same. Even the Dodgers internally don’t consider him one of their top 40-50 prospects at this point. Opposing teams have told me they’d have zero interest in a trade for him either except for as a throw-in third or fourth piece as well. There’s just been no indication to date that he can hit. We’ll see if that changes in 2021, but it hasn’t changed in three years now.

Glaser is more pro-Andy Pages than any other OF with the Dodgers.  On what improvements he saw:

“The Dodgers widened Pages stance a little bit to get more balanced and handle off-speed pitches better. They also tamped down his leg kick a bit. Those are the main adjustments that were made and he’s getting into a better hitting position more consistently as a result. Now, even with that, even the Dodgers internally see Pages topping out as a 45-grade hitter just because his swing path and aggressiveness are always going to lead to a fair share of swings and misses. Still, with his power and defense, that will be enough for him to start in the majors. He’s moving in the right direction and he’s young and he’s intelligent, so it’d be foolish to say it will never get any better, but at this point the 45 hit grade is seen as the best-case scenario even within the organization.”

Glaser considers Pages a better prospect than Rodriguez. 

When asked about Luke Raley, Kyle was very generous.  The Dodgers believed that Kody Hoese was the best hitter at the alternate site.  But they also liked Raley.  They felt Raley was their second-best. He had a dominant summer and was hitting balls to the parking garage beyond the RF at USC. They already thought highly of him and think even more so now. It’s 55-60 game power.  His downside is his 45-55 hit grade which shows a lot of difference in terms of actual production. 

I know many like Zack Reks, but IMO, Raley is the better option for the #4/#5 OF and LH bat off the bench.

Infielders:

The most discussed infielders were obviously Kody Hoese and Michael Busch.  Glaser was high on both players.  It came across that he was more impressed with Busch’s overall hit tool.  While Hoese was the Dodgers best hitter at the alternate site, Busch separated himself from other teams prospects at the Instructs, and Hoese did not impress.  On Busch: 

“Busch will get playing time at some point. If you can hit, they’ll find a spot for you, and he can hit. I don’t know if it will be in 2021 – pending injuries, of course – but at some point he projects to get significant ABs for the Dodgers. It just might be more 2022, 2023. We’ll see what happens with the roster around him.”  “Michael Busch honestly raised his stock probably more than any prospect in baseball at instructs.”

On Hoese if he is the long term answer at 3B: 

“If Kody Hoese shows he was the guy at the alternate site more than the guy he was at instructs, he’d be the guy, but there are some questions about him on both sides of the ball (namely his arm).”

Mark mentioned that Hoese was working out at SS.  The question was posed to Kyle Glaser, but Glaser had not heard that Hoese was considered for short.  Per Kyle, he has good hands, reads hop well and has a knack for being in the right spot.  But his range and arm strength are the questions.  Shortstop would be a stretch.

On Gavin Lux: 

“Lux would still be No. 1 amongst this current group. In terms of his outlook, there is some concern with how much he swung and missed and was just not on plane with the baseball. That said, he arrived late to summer camp, was visibly not up to game speed on both sides of the ball and was playing catch up the rest of the year. It just wasn’t an ideal situation. There is still a lot of optimism that, given a regular season and given consistent ABs to work through things, he’ll be the hitter he was projected to be coming into the year.”

Kyle also had a lot of good things to say about Leonel Valera.  He is a very slick fielding defender, who needs to hit.  Valera did stand out (along with Busch and James Outman) as position players at the Instructs. 

I mentioned yesterday and the day before about a teenager who Kyle is also very high on.  He sees a huge upside for Alex De Jesus.

“De Jesus took part in Dominican instructs and hit really, really well there. Everything looks on track offensively. He got a little heavier so it’s purely third base now, but he showed enough to be an average defender there. He’s in a good place heading into 2021.”   

Kyle likes him as a potential top 5 player.  He has been my darkhorse long term answer at 3B since he was signed.  There was no mention of one of my other darkhorse candidates, Miguel Vargas.  Nor any discussion on Jacob Amaya.

On Devin Mann:   

“Mann continued to show a really good combination of hit and power at the alternate site. He’s a good hitter who should get to the majors, it’s just a matter of what role he plays. His defense continues to be a work in progress. Realistically he’s going to move around to a couple of different positions and just be as versatile as possible.”

If Busch and Hoese can stick, the Dodgers will be set.  They do not have that prospect who is a plus defender and carries a big bat.  It is one or the other.  If there is a difference, it is going to be the bat that will dictate who will play. 

Pitchers:

I got the impression, if there is a position player that Glazer is most impressed with it was Michael Busch.  But I believe that his overall top prospect for the Dodgers that he may be most impressed with might be RHP Bobby Miller.  Ryan Pepiot was considered the best pitcher at the alternate site, but at the Arizona Instructs, Miller stood out…way out.  He had nothing but great things to say about Miller. 

Specifically on Bobby Miller: 

“Miller made some adjustments to his posture and delivery and now he’s a consensus starter. His delivery became a lot more compact and online to the plate. His direction was better, his front side was better, he repeated better…everything was better. There is a very strong sense he could explode into a front-of-the-rotation type of starter. He’s someone to watch as a breakout candidate in 2021.  Miller is in his own tier of that group. Right now he’s getting No. 3 starter grades at worst, with even the evaluators turning him in as that noting he could be more. There is a very real sense, both inside and outside the organization, that the Dodgers got a steal at the back of the first round.”

Not as high on Clayton Beeter. 

“The Dodgers will start him for now, but even their evaluators who thought he had a chance to start out of the draft are significantly lower on those chances based on what they saw at the alternate site. It’s two pitches only and he really struggled to command the ball or repeat his delivery or execute consistently. Again, it was a weird year with a long layoff so maybe things look better in 2021 when he’s on a more normal routine, but the Beeter the Dodgers saw in 2020 at the alt site even they acknowledge was a 100 percent reliever.” 

There was recognition that Beeter has a 70 fastball and curve, but he does not throw a slider and has problems with command.  He has a 40 command, and until that improves, Beeter will be a MiLB pitcher with good stuff but no command, and no spot on a roster.  In summary,

“At this exact moment in time, they see Beeter’s likely future as a reliever. Not a multi-innings reliever, just a straight one-inning power reliever who blows his stuff by hitters, which is valuable.  Now, again, we’re talking about a weird year where he was coming in off a long layoff, so maybe he comes into spring training next year, gets into a normal routine and the CH and control improve and we’re talking about a starter again. It’s something to keep an eye on. He’s a talented pitcher with big stuff and it’s certainly possible his control and changeup improve. The Dodgers will run him out as a starter for as long as they can to see if that happens. Just right now, based on what they saw at the alternate site, the Dodgers saw someone whose long-term future is more likely to be in relief than as a starter.”

On Mitch White:

“The Dodgers were very pleased with White and felt this was the most consistent year he’s had as a professional. The interplay and execution of his stuff really came together. Consistency was always the thing that eluded him, in large part due to injuries, so it was good to see that shore up a bit. He made his major league debut this year as a reliever and most still think that’s his eventual role, but some Dodgers officials think he increased his chance of sticking as a starter with what he showed this year during summer camp and at the alternate site.”

On Jimmy Lewis: 

“Lewis didn’t pitch after signing last year due to shoulder inflammation and spent a chunk of this year rehabbing in Arizona before taking the mound in instructional league, where he impressed a lot of people both inside and outside the organization. He showed a really polished delivery and command, was able to execute to both sides of the plate, FB and CB got good reviews (although the CB was a little inconsistent at times) and the CH has really come along. The polished delivery, command and well-rounded arsenal really impressed a lot of people. It was only 15 innings or so in instructs, so we have to see if it holds up over a more significant workload, but it was a good first look.”

On Gerardo Carrillo –  

“As for what he needs to work on, it’s pretty straightforward – throwing strikes. Carrillo’s control was a mess at Rancho Cucamonga, and it wasn’t great during summer camp or at instructs either in 2020. He’ll throw enough strikes for an inning and then it will implode quickly. Just finding some consistency will go a long way toward getting him up the ladder and into the Dodgers bullpen.”

I particularly liked Kyle’s response to the following question.  Hi Kyle, hearing positive reports on Andre Jackson was he in the conversation for the top 10?

Kyle Glaser:

“No. He wasn’t close. I’m not sure what reports you’re reading, but in speaking with Dodgers officials, they described his performance as “medium-ish”. Jackson has a ton of arm strength, but he has a long way to go to throw enough strikes consistently. The Dodgers spent a lot of time reworking his delivery and arm action and they’re getting better, but they still have a ways to go. Jackson’s stuff plays when it’s in the zone. It’s just a matter of getting it in the zone. He was starting to put it together by the end of instructs. We’ll see if it carries over into 2021.”

I liked the response because it was an honest objective comment on a Dodger prospect.  It wasn’t blog hype.  Kyle’s response was everything I have ever heard about Andre.  Just like all Dodger prospects, I hope he continues to develop and makes an impact with the Dodgers.

Have you heard anything promising about Michael Grove as he gets further away from the surgery?

Mark has been an advocate of Michael Grove since he was drafted.  I have questioned why Mark was so high on Grove since he has not been very good since he returned from TJ surgery.  Glaser added;  

“The velo ticked up a bit to sit 92-94 (he was 89-93 at Rancho in 2019) and his curveball feel started to come back. He really worked a lot on his slider and changeup usage at the alternate site and they’re coming along. The main thing is just continuing to build his durability. He was limited to mostly two-inning stints in 2019 and he stretched out to four-inning stints in 2020. Consistently throwing five, six innings is the step that still has to come.”

This will be a big year for Grove.  Let’s hope it all comes together for him this year.  He is another that may very well end up in the pen.

On Landon Knack and Edwin Uceta –

“They’re very high on Knack and see him as a potential rotation piece moving forward. They’re hoping for some velocity gains from Uceta and think he could be a back-end starter if that comes, but Uceta didn’t do himself any favors by violating the Dodgers safety protocols at the alt site and getting sent home.”

This was a fantastic objective commentary on Dodgers prospects.  I would even add honest.  Glaser is a well respected baseball pundit who has tremendous connections.  That was well displayed when he had the ability to contact Dodger personnel to answer a specific question posed during the chat.

Glaser is still very high on the Dodgers farm system, but more as it is related to depth than top tier can’t miss prospects.  The Dodgers have more players in their system that will eventually make the ML, but may not be stars.  The Kershaw’s, Seager’s, Buehler’s, Urias’, Bellinger’s, Smith’s, and May’s have all graduated to the LAD.  I think Michael Busch will be relatively quick to the ML, but more as a hitter than as a specific position player.  There was no discussion positive or negative on Busch’s improvement defensively.  But for me, the one prospect that seems to have the highest ceiling is RHP Bobby Miller.  I very much look forward seeing how far Miller can move this year.  I think it would be a stretch for Miller to start at AAA before any of the remaining MiLB teams can start, but it sure would be intriguing to see if he would be overmatched at that level. 

I think we are going to see a multitude of prospects pushed this year.  But I do not believe the Dodgers will set back development for expediency.  I believe in the Dodgers development team and I believe in time, the next group of prospects will become impact players for the Dodgers, or become vital elements to a strategic trade.  I am not afraid of trading prospects in the right deal.  The only factor to be considered as a Dodger fan is whether the player the Dodgers acquired improved their chances at winning.  As Bear mentioned, it is irrelevant as to how many batting championships Alex Verdugo may win, or how good Jeter Downs turns out to be, because Mookie Betts was the missing ingredient in getting the Dodgers across the finish line. 

Who will be next…Keibert Ruiz, JoJo Gray, Bobby Miller, Michael Busch, Kody Hoese, Diego Cartaya, or some more long term prospects like a couple of my darkhorses, Alex De Jesus and Jerming Rosario.  Baseball America has Bobby Miller making his major league debut this year. Dodgers version of Garrett Crochet? It is a good time to be a Dodger fan.