Sun Tzu, who wrote The Art of War, said this:
“According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.“
That is a really, really wise statement. All winter, and right about now, the Padres are improving… at least on paper. They added Joe Musgrove yesterday, who has some upside and a downside. Which side will rear its head is the question, but they probably got better, although again weakening the depth of their Farm System.
I think the Dodgers would like to stay under the LuxTax (that’s what I call the Competitive Balance Tax), but depending upon many circumstances, they may decide to go over it… and I believe they can. But will they? It’s just not what they want to do. When Andrew Friedman said that the Dodgers wanted to be pigs, many people took that to mean that he was going to “stack the team” and sign all the free agents and trade away the farm so that they could win it all again in 2021. Those people who thought that were hopeful, uninformed, and delusional!
That simply ain’t happening! Not a chance, and there never was. Andrew Friedman was talking about the end result, not the process of getting there, which by the way, he is not sharing with anyone, let alone, me and you! The only way to even begin to predict what Andrew Friedman will do is to look back. Since he signed Mookie Betts to a huge deal, you think he will do it again and you would be WRONG! He has NEVER done that before. You do this for special players when they fall into your lap. Jim Bowden of The Athletic summed it up:
The Dodgers have made some solid moves for their bullpen, trading for right-hander Corey Knebel from the Brewers, re-signing reliever Blake Treinen with a pay cut, and taking a chance on free agent Tommy Kahnle despite the fact he’s rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery and won’t get back until 2022. The defending world champions are letting the offseason come to them, but don’t think the moves the Padres have made haven’t gotten their attention.
Of course, this is the same Jim Bowden who predicted that Nolan Arenado would be a Dodger by Christmas… and he could be right: Christmas 2021! It is my opinion that unless Nolan Arenado opts out of his contract after 2021, he will not be a Dodger… and I don’t see a way he walks away from all the Benjamins… unless he is the NL MVP and to get there he has to improve whole bunch! I can’t see it.
Even if the Dodgers do not sign Justin Turner, they are the class of the NL – It’s just that the gap has lessened! Position-by-position and pitcher-by-pitcher, it is my opinion that the Padres are not the equal of the Dodgers, but they are better than they were last season. The keyword right about now is: DON’T PANIC!
“According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.“
That simply means that maybe the Dodgers start the season with the crew they have. They would like to have JT… and signing him will put them over the LuxTax, but if he doesn’t sign, there is no reason to panic. Maybe the best thing to do is to start the season and see what we have and what they have. There will be surprises on both teams, both good and bad. Then, at the trade deadline, a move or three can be made. Don’t panic. Let the game come to you. According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.
Mark Timmons Translation: Don’t make any dope-fiend moves!
Ask and answer these questions:
- Will Gavin Lux realize his potential?
- Will Will Smith continue to progress to being an All-Star?
- Will Cody and Max have bounceback years?
- Will Corey step up and show out?
- Is Edwin Rios ready for an everyday spot?
- Will Mookie elevate his game to be the MVP?
- Does Chris Taylor have more in the tank?
- Can AJ Pollock put together another impressive season?
- Will some rookies will step up?
- Does Clayton have another great year left?
- Can Kenley re-capture his magic?
- Is this the year Walker Buehler becaome Striker Buehler?
- What is Julio Urias?
- Can David Price really be the Comeback Player of the Year?
- Can May and Gonsolin grow more and become linchpins for the team?
- Is Knebel for real?
- Who is Cleavinger?
- Will Bazooka take another step forward in the pen?
- Will Treinen and Kelly be useful parts of the bullpen?
- Where is Josiah Gray in his development?
- Is Reks or Raley better than Beaty?
- Who will step up in the bullpen?
- Who is on the bench?
- Are Busch and Hoese prospects or suspects?
- Are the Dodgers hungry for another Championship?
There are lots of questions (every team has them) that I cannot answer, and neither can you. That is why they play the game and not just run some computer model. The best team on paper does not always win, but they generally are close! I am fine with whatever Andrew Friedman does or doesn’t do… the real deadline is the Trade Deadline. There will be a lot of sellers then.
The Padres may have won the offseason, but that is all they have won and it doesn’t come with a trophy. The game is played to get to the World Series and be in a position to win it all. Have the Padres put themselves in a better position to do that? Most likely, but Yu Darvish has wilted in the bright lights before, and questions abound about all of their starting pitchers. They could be very good or not. Like the Dodgers, the Padres also have questions. We will learn the answers as the season unfolds! According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans. Watch and learn!
Undivided
Silver Threads and Golden Needles
Do you want to grow a Monkey Tail Beard?
Then read THIS. If not, just stop now. That might look good on you, Bear! 😉
Discussion (59)
Disagree, not disagreeable
OK, now things are going to happen…
Jose Quintana signing with LAA. Looks like things are finally opening up. Typical LAA pitcher signing. 1 year $8MM. meh
Springer to the Jays, 6 years 150 million per Heyman….just happened.
Blue Jays and George Springer apparently close to having a deal in place, per multiple sources. Not signed, so not complete, and anything could happen. Mets are not completely out, but it looks pretty clear the Jays are going to do whatever they have to do to sign him. It sure seems all of the major parts have been agreed to.
Let’s see if this works.
This is Tommy’s Celebration of Life at Dodger Stadium:
https://ladodgers.sharefile.com/share/view/s568bddb8d18b42d697797e036cbcee8f
It’s too bad there is a Pandemic. Dodger Stadium would have been SRO!
Memorial service today for Tommy at the Stadium. For family and friends. His casket was placed on the pitchers mound and all the players were wearing # 2. Turner was in attendance.
Yates getting 8.25 mil from the Jays, do not think the Dodgers would have offered close to that.
https://www.mlb.com/news/justin-turner-signs-4-year-deal-with-dodgers-c212210494
OK, it’s old news! 😉
I have no idea how serious the Dodgers were about signing Kirby Yates. If there were five teams who made offers, I am guessing that IF the Dodgers were indeed one of those five, their offer would have been #5. Why they spent so much for Joe Kelly, I will never know. So not like AF. Every time he makes an offer to a reliever, I bet he thinks about Kelly.
It is still speculated that the Dodgers will be adding another reliever. I cannot see them signing Brad Hand, Alex Colome, or Trevor Rosenthal. But I can see them offering Steve Cishek, Tyler Clippard, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Workman, or Yusmeiro Petit on a one-year low base and incentives laden contract. Maybe they take a chance on clubhouse problem Keone Kela. Maybe most on here and other Dodger blogs say NO, but it is something that AF would do and has done.
Reliever contracts (2021 Actual Salary):
KJ – $20.000MM
Kelly – $8.333MM
Treinen – $8.000MM
Knebel – $5.250MM
Kahnle – $1.025MM
Alexander – $1.000MM
Floro – $875K
Kolarek, Gonsolin, Graterol, VGon – Pre Arbitration
Brandon Morrow will make $1.000MM if he makes the ML roster.
The top four relievers make more than the entire Cleveland Indians roster. I do not believe that AF is going to spend a lot more on the bullpen.
RIP Don Sutton… Steady I would label him… Just went out and did his job… Prayers up for his family.
312 W seems surreal nowadays… HOF… Easy pick…
Don Sutton pitched 200-plus innings every season but one between 1966 and 1986. The one year he didn’t pitch 200 innings? The 1981 strike year.
Don Sutton is 1 of 10 pitchers to record 3,000+ Ks, 300+ wins, and an ERA below 3.50.
Now he may not have had the charisma of a Big D or Sandy but quietly set the bar for young Dodger pitchers…
Last but not least: The guy who rightfully told the press that Reggie Smith, not Steve Garvey, carried the 1977-78 Dodgers. That led to a fight, but Sutton was right even if it’s not a thing you should say on the record about a teammate… Steve ‘Mr. Clean’ Garvey’ IMHO was a butthole anyhow…
Official Dodger Press Release
DODGER HALL OF FAME GREAT DON SUTTON PASSES AWAY
PALM SPRINGS, CA –Hall of Famer and Los Angeles Dodgers pitching great Don Sutton passed away at his home after battling cancer. Sutton was 75 years of age.
“Today we lost a great ballplayer, a great broadcaster and, most importantly a great person,” said Dodger President Stan Kasten. “Don left an indelible mark on the Dodger franchise during his 16 seasons in Los Angeles and many of his records continue to stand to this day. I was privileged to have worked with Don in both Atlanta and Washington, and will always cherish our time spent together. On behalf of the Dodger organization, we send our condolences to the entire Sutton Family, including Don’s wife Mary, his son Daron and his daughters Staci and Jacquie.”
Sutton, who hailed from Clio, AL, was a pitching workhorse in the Major Leagues in a career that spanned 23 years, 16 of which with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sutton was enshrined into Baseball’s Hall of Fame in 1998 and the Dodgers retired his number “20” in a ceremony on Aug. 14, 1998.
Following his illustrious pitching career, Sutton started his broadcasting career in 1987 working the League Championship Series for NBC before splitting his time in 1989 between the Dodgers Z Channel and the Atlanta Braves. He then spent 18 years with the Braves calling the action on TBS. Sutton spent two years with the Washington Nationals in 2007-08 and returned to the Braves in 2009, where he has been ever since. Sutton was elected to the Braves Hall of Fame in 2015 for his broadcast work.
Sutton made it to the big leagues in Los Angeles on April 14, 1966 at the age of 21, and this was the start of a great and long career for the right-handed hurler. He signed with the Dodgers in 1965 and pitched one year in the Texas League, where he was named Texas League Player of the Year. In 1966, he joined a rotation of Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Claude Osteen. He struck out 209 batters in his rookie season, the most by a National League Rookie since Grover Cleveland Alexander’s 227 in 1911.
Sutton’s career with the Dodgers spanned 1966-80 and he returned in 1988. During this time, he ranks as the franchise’s all-time leader in wins (233), innings pitched (3,816.1) strikeouts (2,696) and shutouts (52).
Sutton was a four-time All-Star, who pitched in three World Series (1974, 1977 and 1978). He led the league in shutouts (9) in 1972, was the NL ERA leader (2.21) in 1980 and a 21-game winner in 1976.
His 23-year career that also saw him pitch for the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland A’s and Angels, saw him finish with a 324-256 win-loss total, a 3.26 ERA in 774 games with 178 complete games, 58 shutouts and five saves. He struck out 3,574 batters in 5,282.1 career innings.
Sutton was 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA in seven League Championship Games and was 2-3 in eight World Series games. In the 1974 post-season, he was 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 25 strikeouts in four games.
Kirby Yates to the Blue Jays
Favorite Dodger pitcher as a kid. RIP
RIP Don Sutton. He was 75 years old.
After losing baseball Hall of Famers Lou Brock, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Al Kaline, Whitey Ford and Joe Morgan in 2020, we have already lost Tom Lasorda and Don Sutton in 2021. A huge dent in those immortalized with plaques in Cooperstown.
Don Sutton has passed away
Bauer appealed directly to Dodger fans on Twitter wearing a Dodger cap. And those who think he is coming to LA responded. Personally, I do not think a pitcher who has had one really good year merits a 9 figure contract, and so far the market has shown that. Bauer is a strikeout pitcher, he is also very eccentric and has his own way of doing things. One reason the D-Backs unloaded him after one season. He has pitched well for the Indians and has a 7-9 record over parts of 2 seasons with the Reds. But is he worth 4/125? Doubtful. He is now 30 years old and obviously trying to capitalize on his free agency. But last time I checked, there have been no contracts north of 100 million given to anyone. No way he fits into AF’s budget. Musgrove, who every one seems to be drooling over after SD adds him to their rotation, has been a bust against the Dodgers. 0-3 lifetime, and they hit over .300 against him. Darvish and Snell have each faced the Dodgers once in the regular season and both times the games ended in a no decision for the pitcher. Lamet is 1-3 career against LA and Paddack is 1-2. Plus LA has 8 HR’s off of Paddack. So the vaunted Padres rotation has a total career record against LA of 2-8 with 2 no decisions. Between Kershaw and Buehler alone the Dodgers are 25-7 against the Padres. I think even on paper that looks like advantage LA>
25 great questions about the Dodgers MT. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
With the recent arbitration and salary bumps, the Dodgers will be over the “competitive balance tax” if they sign Turner.
Understanding the Luxury Tax is not my forte and I am in no imminent danger of becoming a GM. It seems odd to me that the Padres can make so many moves yet they still are 43 million under the “cap”. (I know Baseball doesn’t have a salary cap) How have they done that when the Dodgers have made few moves and the ones they have made don’t break the bank.
As I look at Salary and Payroll tables on Sportrac, I have no clue the differences between columns “payroll salary”, “adjusted salary” and “luxury tax salary” so I’ll go with luxury tax salary as that seems like what needs to be under the “cap”. It’s been obvious that the Padres had prospects, being rated one of the most, if not the most, highly rated organizations in MLB for a few years. It appears they have parlayed that talent into fairly reasonably priced roster. Only five guys making over 10 million topped with Machado at 32 million (geez). But a couple of players won’t be making the minimum forever. Tatis and Paddock will eventually get paid.
The Dodgers have 7 guys over 10 mill a year. CK in his last contract year and Mookie, who deserves every penny, account for 28% of the payroll. With the youngsters coming toward free agency at the end of 21 and 22, they will get their money
While not exactly boat anchors, KJ, Kelly and to a lesser extent Pollack, account for 25% of the payroll. It will be nice to have that money freed up.
But 3 things are funny. One is folks who suggest the addition of expensive, all-star type players at every position, 2 the addition of Bauer to the payroll and 3, how is it that the Yankees, Mets, Phillies Qalwaysseem to be in the conversation for the most expensive guys. Do they have a money tree?
It’s quite an art to be competitive every year and stay under the cap. Oops, I mean Competitive Balance Tax.
Every year a team has lots of question marks. Betts isn’t one of them. But the bullpen is loaded with them. Big issue is if Jansen can regain his control. That was more of an issue than his lost velocity. Interesting take if Turner just waiting to sign when spots open up on roster. I just can’t believe he’s anything but a Dodger next year!
Not a done deal yet Bull, but we will see,
Bummer about Yates. I’m still hoping we add another bullpen arm but the 40 an roster is stocked full of pitchers with a whopping 24. Two of them can go on the 60 day IL when Spring Training starts, but we have two non roster players that may take those spots in Morrow and Nelson.
Our bullpen was very good last year. Was it elite? Right now Fangraphs lists our bullpen as 8th best in the league. I find that this is probably skewed in the wrong direction and has a good chance at being much better than that. For example, Steamers projects Knebel to have a 4.00 ERA. I’m willing to bet anyone he out performs that projection. For me it comes down to this. We lost Baez and McGee and replaced them with Knebel and Cleavinger. Wood was an extra pitcher with only 12 innings at a -.4 WAR on the season, so I don’t really count that as a loss of any kind.
Fangraphs also ranks bullpen by WAR, which is an odd stat to use mainly because the more usage will result in a higher WAR since WAR is a counting stat. So really this all comes down to who’s better. Baez and McGee or Knebel and Cleavinger? McGee was pretty horrible for several years with Colorado and the Dodgers fixed him, will they have that same success with Cleavinger? Baez was very good if you don’t bring him in with runners on and had a lot of success facing the meat of the order the last couple of years, but Knebel was a former closer with a couple of good years and one great one. I’m hoping Knebel is better, but can be seen as a wash.
So right now, I think the pen is about the same as last year, except one of the young starters will see time in the pen with Price returning to the rotation. If Morrow or Nelson are dominant, the pen is much better than last year. If not, it’s probably a wash.
With that said, it’s probably not a high priority to add another arm to the mix. Instead, if someone wants to come in and get a ring at a fair price, we might see another addition. But, we are in the position where we don’t have to make a move.
Still need that RH bat. JT will probably resign and the DH might come to the NL. This is so unfair to DHs and to NL teams that this isn’t settled. This is a total failure by a horrible commissioner.
I’m hoping the the talk about Marcus Semien is a smoke screen. His bat does not come close to JT’s.
Lot of risk with Trevor Bauer, but there is some serious upside too. When he’s good, he’s really good. Anyone care to predict what 2021 will look like for Bauer?
Unless injuries play a major role, the Dodger rotation seems to be very good. If I’m certain of Price’s return, I would probably let it ride. It would be nice to get a verdict on the DH. That’s an area that the Dodgers could make major improvement. Might change how we view Justin Turner going forward.
Still think the Dodgers will seek to improve the bullpen further. Probably some great deals to be had as we get closer to spring training. Maybe even a right handed bat, although I’m not sure where he would play, especially if Turner returns to third.
Although a big trade with the Reds could be a possibility, but the cost would be high in terms of players headed to Cincinnati. More likely Grey is the pitcher in a trade than Castillo. The Reds GM doesn’t seem to be inclined to trade his top young hurler and why should he? Where is the logic? Does he really want to trade his young third baseman? Some speculation, perhaps a hint or two. But what are the sources? Just something to write or talk about, but no real foundation.
Now in the world of reality, I’m guessing the Dodgers could acquire Votto and Grey. Does that make any sense? Maybe not. Okay, probably not.
Nope, that beard will never be on my face. First off, I do not make that kind of money, and second, it looks stupid. I used to wear mutton chops years ago when my hair was long. Something like that with my bald pate would look ridiculous. Mets fired Porter for his inappropriate tweets. Rosenthal reporting that Yates is close to signing with the Jays. AF will do what he has done since he came here, and it will make some people angry, others scratch their heads, and even more say, damn, that was genius. Just the way he operates. Many here forget he has people he has to answer to. And if Guggenheim says stay below the CBT, that is what he will do. If they say, hey, lets do this, then he will do that. He did not sign Betts to that contract without ownership’s whole hearted stamp of approval. And you can bet that he and Stan Kasten speak often of baseball related issues. He knows SD has improved. He also knows that except for a few players, they are still a very young inexperienced team. He will do what he has to do to keep the Dodgers competitive. And I see more a trade kind of move than a major free agent signing. In Facebook jail for 24 hours. Freedom of speech there has really gone down the tubes.
For those who were hoping we might sign Yates, word is out that he’s getting close to signing with the Blue Jays. Not to say that AF couldn’t come in at the last minute with a higher bid, but when did he last do that?
MT – This may be your best post in awhile… Short and sweet and keep it simple…
Your list of 25 will keep me thinking for weeks…
The beard!??! Becuz mine grows back quickly, I think I’ll try it out with my wife’s family… Every couple weeks we grab our beach chairs and a small cooler , get together on a green belt near my house and talk endlessly about not much… Wife has 6 sisters and a brother less than 5 miles away… It’s cool…
OK, I’ll confess… I’ve been watching Australian baseball and digging it… The crack of the bat bat etc. etc. cures what ails me…
Come on Camelback and ST…
Looking a couple of years out: the Dodgers will have to pay a lot to keep Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and Urias. Given the Padres are rumored to signing Tatis long term for 300+ million, Seager is going to want the same deal. All the others are going to be way up there as well. If you figure 25 million average salary for the 4 plus Mookie’s contract, that’s 130 million for 5 players. Is this doable?
Regarding JT or any free agent, the 40 man is full so to sign a free agent they have to release or trade someone, or wait until spring training when Ferguson and Kahnle go on the IL. My guess is there is already an agreement with JT and they are waiting for a spot to open. If that is true than any trade would be to acquire a 2nd baseman, closer(not likely) or a righthanded first base/utility player.
I could be way off, but the roster situation speaks for itself.
They could probably just have to take on Moose and he can play 2nd or 3rd. Lux, Ruiz and Gray for Castillo and Moustakas. Bauer 4 years $125.
That was suppose to be Kenley.
Trading for Luis Castillo and signing Trevor Bauer would sure alleviate many of those concerns and NO, those are not dope-fiend moves.
I don’t know about many of you but I would not have felt comfortable with Clayton Kershaw starting a game 7, and I’d trade Memory and pay half his salary.