Draft day is near (Saturday). Will the Dodgers get a difference maker at pick #40? Maybe, maybe not. Dalton Rushing is a difference maker and he was picked as the LAD #1 at #40. LHSP Zach Root (#40) looks like a strong potential difference maker as does Charles Davalan (#41). But their strategy is so muddled because of their lack of a bonus pool. It is not that there will not be a viable pick at #40, it is that they may not be able to afford that player, or that the player could have significant injury concerns that other teams will pass.
Because of the strength and depth of the farm system, AF says that this is the perfect year for the Dodgers to have a down year for the draft. They will not have any potential elite picks, but knowing the Dodgers they will find prospects who will fit in and some will be expected to reach MLB. Maybe a Justin Wrobleski?
The Dodgers are at an extreme disadvantage. Teams that exceed the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, set $40 million above the $244 million base threshold, have their highest draft pick moved back ten spots. The Dodgers have moved from #30 to #40.
That 10 pick slide is only part of the cost. The deeper damage is in the bonus pool, and this is where the numbers become genuinely jarring. Because each forfeited pick takes its assigned slot value out of a team’s total spending pool, the Dodgers enter 2026 with just $3,951,900 to spend across their entire draft class, the smallest pool in all of baseball, and by a large margin. #29 bonus pool amount is Toronto at $5,543,100.
Bonus Values by round:
- 2nd round – #40 – $2,504,200
- 4th round – #132 – $575,300
- 7th round – #223 – $260,300
- 8th round – #253 – $218,500
- 9th round – #283 – $201,700
- 10th round – #313 – $191,900
You cannot just say you are not going to sign all of those picks. If a player selected in the first 10 rounds doesn’t sign, his pick’s value is subtracted from his club’s pool. As an example, if the Dodgers do not sign their 7th round pick, $260,300 comes out of the total bonus pool, dropping the pool to $3,691,600. This is why the Dodgers generally draft and sign players in the 9th and 10th round for $2,500 bonuses. Baseball America has a list of 75 College Seniors who could be drafted. Look for the Dodgers to pick players in this list.
With the Dodgers, there is also the possibility of exceeding 5% of the bonus pool, the maximum amount without penalty.
Penalty of exceeding 5% overage:
- More than 5% up to 10%: The team loses its next year’s first-round pick and pays a 75% tax on the amount it went over.
- More than 10% up to 15%: The team forfeits both a first-round and a second-round pick, alongside a 100% tax on the overage.
- More than 15%: The team forfeits its next two first-round picks and pays a 100% tax on the overage.
- LAD bonus pool plus 5% = $4,149,495
- LAD bonus pool plus 10% = $4,347,090
- LAD bonus pool plus 15% = $4,544,685
To put the 2026 bonus pool into perspective, last year’s bonuses for Zach Root and Charles Davalan totaled $4.2MM. What are the prospects for a difference making 1st round pick.
This year is probably the most difficult year yet to project what the Dodgers might be looking at. The bonus pool is so light.
In 2023, the Dodgers were picking #36 and had multiple prospects they were high on, but they all went before the Dodgers could pick.
SS George Lombard Jr. went #26 to NYY (LAD really wanted him, but knew he would not be there). Others they were tied to:
- OF Jonny Farmelo at 29 Seattle
- SS Adrian Santana at 31 Tampa Bay
- RHP Charlie Soto at 34 Minnesota
- LHP Thomas White at 35 Miami (Another who was at the top of the want list, right before the Dodgers picked).
So, they dropped down to take a lower ranked player to sign well below slot value, Kendall George. George signed for $510K below slot value. George is someone they were looking to take in the 2nd round which is where they drafted Jake Gelof.
There is current speculation by some that the Dodgers might trade for SS Kevin McGonigle (not happening). The Dodgers could have drafted him in 2023. McGonigle went right after Kendall George. But he signed for $1MM more than George. The Dodgers needed to sign a player for less than slot value.
In 2024, the Dodgers selected #23 so had a larger bonus pool. They signed HS SS Kellon Lindsey for below slot savings of $380K. They spent that and more on 2nd HS 3B Chase Harlan. Harlan was signed for more than $1MM above slot.
Last year they were focusing on Brady Ebel (#32 to Milwaukee) and C Luke Stevenson (#35 to Seattle). They were also high on C Caden Bodine (#30 to Baltimore). Instead, they took a pair of Arkansas Razorbacks, LHSP Zach Root and 2B/CF Charles Davalan. Root had injury concerns and Davalan had position concerns. Thus, the Dodgers were able to sign them with below slot values totaling $630K for the two. The Dodgers used a lot of the savings when they signed HS SS Aiden West, for an above slot deal of $725,100.
The Dodgers had more bonus pool savings with their 9th and 10th pick. They signed college seniors C Conner O’Neal and LHP Jacob Frost. They are both 23 years old. O’Neal is in Ontario and Frost is in Great Lakes. Both players are older than the average player in those leagues.
There are 3 top picks that everyone is mocking at the top.
- CWS – UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky
- Tampa Bay – HS SS Grady Emerson
- Minnesota – Georgia Tech C Vahn Lackey
For over a year now, Cholowsky has been the face of the 2026 draft. He has not disappointed ,but Emerson might just be the higher ceiling. CWS could change and instead draft Emerson. There is a lot of smoke that CWS is moving more toward Emerson. Emerson is considered the best HS player since Bobby Witt and maybe before that. Emerson was rated the best HS player in his sophomore year. Tampa Bay drafts SS. They prefer HS, so they would prefer Emerson, but they will gladly take Cholowsky. The pundits believe that Minnesota will pick whichever of the three is left.
Roch Cholowsky
Grady Emerson
Vahn Lackey
Those are the top three, but after that, it begins to open up.
How far down the draft pool players fall could dictate who might be available for the LAD pick at #40.
Dodgers needs? You can never have enough pitching. They really have no catchers in the pipeline. Is there another Kevin McGonigle out there? One who will sign for a below slot value? If it is an OF, he better be a bargain so they can invest more in later rounds. You also cannot be wrong when you draft a SS. They can be moved to 2B, 3B, CF, or RF.
This could be a 2023 draft where the Dodgers drop down and take a 2nd round talent at #40, and sign for well below slot value to open up later round above slot value picks. The Dodgers will do their due diligence and learn what the bonus amount each player will accept. They will not draft a player if they do not feel they can sign him.
I am very skeptical that the Dodgers will draft a HS player at #40 because of the low probability of signing him with the LAD bonus pool. Some like Tennessee HS catcher Will Brick. He is the best HS catcher in the draft, and it really is not close. He is near elite defensively but did not hit as well as teams hoped for. Brick is committed to Mississippi State, and being an SEC baseball powerhouse, the NIL dollars will be substantial. He could very well earn more in 3 years at Mississippi State than what the LAD bonus might be. Mississippi State is putting together a very good freshman class. He just turned 18 (June 6), so he will be draftable again at age 20. I think he stays in school. I am sure Mary Lamb has a clear picture as to Brick’s ceiling and what it will take to sign him.
NY prep SS Aiden Ruiz is another HS player who could drop to them (unlikely). He is committed to Vanderbilt and that makes him not as likely. He isn’t expected to drop to LAD, so without the big bonus $$$ he will head to Vandy.
Other HS players who have been tangentially aligned with LAD are 3B Bo Lowrence, committed to Virginia, SS Taj Marchand is committed to Mississippi, Cole Prosek 3B/C committed to Mississippi. SS Rocco Maniscalco, committed to Mississippi State. One other HS SS who has been associated with LAD is James Clark. He played HS at southern California powerhouse, St. John Bosco, the same high school that produced Nomar Garciaparra. He is committed to Duke and the prospect of him signing is mitigated by his desire to play with his twin brother at Duke. I am guessing that he has lofty goals for his future, and maybe baseball is one, but unlikely he will settle on that right out of HS.
If these HS prospects are not drafted before they get to pick #40, it is more likely that the bonuses offered were not enough to push them away from the NIL $$$ and a chance to play for an elite college with NCAA Championship aspirations. Especially a SEC program.
The overwhelming consensus from the publications mock drafts is that the Dodgers will select University of Virginia SS Eric Becker. The Dodgers have been selecting players from Virginia over the last few years: OF/1B Chris Newell, 3B Jake Gelof, LHP Matt Lanzendorfer, RHP Jack O’Connor. The Dodgers are familiar with the program. He fits the college bat scenario at a premier position.
Becker is the solid defender, and has what is described as a simple swing. He has a chance to stick at SS, but he is more likely to end up at 2B or 3B. Baseball Reference already has him as a 3B/2B. He was playing 3B on the USA teams with Cholowsky playing SS. He is bat to ball over power with low K. If a team can get him to be more aggressive at the plate, he would be a solid choice. He is a higher floor player than higher ceiling.
A similar prospect is Georgia Tech 2B Jarren Advincula. Advincula is a better hit prospect. He was voted top pro prospect out of the Cape Cod League, where he led the league in hitting .392 (wood bat league). He hit well for 2 years at Cal. After transferring to Georgia Tech, he led NCAA in hits (111) and 2nd in batting average at .434. The ACC is not the SEC, but it is not that far behind, and it is the 2nd best NCAA Division 1 baseball conference. He has no power potential, and his fringy arm make him better suited at 2B. But that bat…
Now the question, do Becker and Advincula have higher ceilings than Kellon Lindsey.
There are a multitude of college bats that LAD may be interested in. Most are expected to land before #40, but sometimes players do drop down.
Could C Daniel Jackson (Georgia) fall to #40? If he does, I cannot see the Dodgers passing on him. Would they reach for Texas power hitting catcher with a 60 arm, C Carson Tinney? Tinney is large at 6’4″ 240 pounds. He has tools, but he is a project. Then again so was Rushing.
The Dodgers are linked to College bats (as is every team). Those OF bats that drop could be someone the Dodgers could covet. They are not afraid to stockpile OF.
- Sawyer Strosnider – L – TCU
- Aiden Robbins – R – Texas
- Zion Rose – R – Louisville
- Caden Sorrell – L – Texas A&M
I see little chance that Virginia OF AJ Gracia lasts to #40, but you never know.
What about pitching? There are three who have had some connection to the Dodgers.
- UCLA RHP Logan Reddemann – Transferred from University of San Diego where he had a reputation as a RHP with outstanding control. He continued his mastery over control with improving his velo and becoming the Friday night starter. He has a 60 Fastball sitting 95-96 touching 99. His cutter has become his preferred secondary pitch, but his change is still above average. A pitcher coming out of John Savage’s tutelage is a plus.
- USC LHP Mason Edwards – A Palisades HS graduate, he went directly to USC and stuck there. He grew from a swing man to Ace of the staff. He was 1st team All American and Big 10 Pitcher of the Year. Like Reddemann his competitiveness and control are near elite. He has a 6-pitch repertoire. Edwards’ change figures to be his money pitch. He has more of a reliever risk than Reddemann.
- Mississippi RHP Taylor Rabe – He is a recovering TJ survivor. He redshirted his 2024 season while recovering from TJ surgery. He moved to the bullpen in 2025 and started the 2026 season in the bullpen. He became a second Ace in the month leading up to the playoffs. He started Game 1 of the College World Series facing the eventual runner-up, University of North Carolina. He has elite strike throwing ability and lives on the edges. His K:BB ratio was 7:1, outstanding. He has a plus fastball (65) and his secondary pitches improved throughout the year. His slider was graded at 55 and his cutter was graded at 60.
Rabe is moving quickly up the charts and currently sits at #40. He reminds of a RH version of another SEC pitcher who pitched well in the College World Series…Zach Root. Root had injury concerns. The Dodgers enhanced Root’s pitches, I am assuming they could the same for Rabe.
WHO DO I THINK?
This is an impossible choice. If I was forced to make a choice, it would be Virginia SS Eric Becker. He is already a gifted defensive infielder who will get a chance to stick at SS but is more likely a 2B with his average arm. He is a safe bet to sign and will not be an overslot requirement. He could be an underslot signee. It could also be Georgia Tech 2B Jarren Advincula. Maybe to who agrees to least demanding bonus.
My personal choice would be one of the pitchers. I love the makeup of all three, but Taylor Rabe has the chance for the highest ceiling, with Mason Edwards the highest floor. Edwards and Logan Reddemann figure to be gone by #40, but Rabe is a good bet to be there.
I do not see any of the college OF pushing any of the top LAD MiLB, so I think they would be secondary choices.
Every draft has a darkhorse high ceiling gamble. For me, Massachusetts HS LHP Brody Bumila.
“Bumila has already had UCL surgery via internal brace. That was technically not “full” Tommy John surgery but is still a red flag that teams processing medicals at premium picks often can’t get comfortable with. He’s also from Massachusetts, which means he’s pitched in cold weather with a shorter developmental sample than a Texas, Florida or California arm.
Strip away the concerns and what’s left is this: a 6’9″‘ LH teenage pitcher who has been regularly hitting 100 mph this spring, with interesting breaking ball shapes delivered from a lower arm slot and the kind of frame that hasn’t even begun to fill out yet. Teams drafting in the top-20 range are going to have trouble reconciling the medical history with the price point. A team picking in the 28-35 area, or in the second round is where Bumila makes perfect sense. The Dodgers, who have produced elite pitching from all arm angles and have built one of the game’s best analytics and development environments, are exactly the organization to bet on a high-upside lefty with big stuff and an unusual profile.”
Upside? Another Randy Johnson?
It has been reported that Bumila is experiencing another elbow (UCL) concern, which will scare more teams. I do not think this scares AF. They waited more than 2 years for Brady Smith to emerge, and he is showing some real promise this year. I am looking for a big breakout year for him next year. I think he starts at Great Lakes but could be an early promotion to AA at 22.
How to watch:
2026 MLB DRAFT PRESENTED BY NIPPON EXPRESS
Day 1: Saturday, July 11 (Rounds 1-4)
• 1:00-2:30 p.m. ET – Picks 1-10 (NBC/Peacock)
• 2:30-4:30 p.m. ET – Picks 11-40 (MLB Network, MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
• 4:30-7:45 p.m. ET – Picks 41-135 (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
Day 2: Sunday, July 12 (Rounds 5-20)
• 11:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m. ET (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
OKC Comets 6 – El Paso Chihuahuas (San Diego) 3
In the 1st inning, LF James Tibbs III reached on an error, and moved to 2nd on a WP. RF Jack Suwinski drew a BB. Both runners moved up on a PB, a Tibbs III scored on a WP with Suwinski moved to 3rd. 2B Austin Gauthier hit a SF to score Suwinski.
In the 4th, 1B Ryan Ward single and moved to 3rd on JT III double (20). SS Hyeseong Kim singled to score Ward, JT III to 3rd and Kim to 2nd. Suwinski’s SF scored JT III and Kim to 3rd. Kim scored on Gauthier’s RBI single. 3B Noah Miller and Chuckie Robinson walked to load the bases. DH Alek Thomas singled to score Gauthier for a 6-0 lead.
LHSP Jackson Ferris was very good for 4 innings. But he ran into trouble in the 5th. He struck out the first two batters in the inning. Then the dam broke. A HBP, single, single, and double scored 3 runs. RHRP Carlos Duran relieved Ferris to get the final out of the 5th.
Three additional relievers followed Duran and pitched 4 scoreless innings, with RHRP Paul Gervase finishing the final 2.0 perfect innings with 2 K.
Gauthier was the only OKC batter with 2 hits. JT III (20) and Suwinski (21) were the only OKC batters with XBH, both doubles.
Springfield Cardinals 12 – Tulsa Drillers 6
CF Mike Sirota singled in the 6th inning to extend his streak of reaching base safely to 71 games. He has now tied Kevin Youkilis and Kevin Millar for their streaks. Andrew Velasquez and his 72 is next.
RHSP Payton Martin had a horrible start, arguably the worst of his career. In 2.2 innings, Martin allowed 9 runs (all earned), on 19 hits, 2 BB, 2 K, and 2 HR. Martin was relieved by RHRP Christian Ruebeck, exiting trailing 9-1.
DH Zyhir Hope continued his power barrage with a solo HR (19) in the 2nd inning.
In the 4th, Ruebeck issued 2 BB with a single to load the bases. A force out scored the 10th run.
LHRP Christian Suarez relieved Ruebeck in the 5th. He allowed a solo HR.
In the 6th, Sirota singled and moved to 3rd on 3B Kyle Nevin’s double (10). Sirota scored on Hope’s ground out with Nevin to 3rd. 1B Chris Newell singled to score Nevin.
LHRP Myles Caba was pitching in the 8th when he gave up a solo HR, for a 12-3 lead.
In the 8th, Nevin doubled (11) and continued to 3rd on Hope’s single. Newell singled to score Nevin. 2B Taylor Young walked to load the bases. RF Kole Myers hit a SF to score Hope.
LF Josue De Paula singled and continued to 3rd on a pair of errors on the play. JDP scored on a groundout.
- Kyle Nevin – 2-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 2 doubles (11)
- Zyhir Hope – 2-5, 2 runs, 2 RBI, HR (19)
- Chris Newell – 2-4, 2 RBI
- Taylor Young – 2-3, 1 BB
Great Lakes Loons 15 – Dayton Dragons (Reds) 7
GL jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the 1st. SS Emil Morales hit a 1 out double (9), and 3B Chase Harlan singled Morales to 3rd. RF Jose Meza singled home Morales and Harlan moved to 2nd. Harlan scored when 2B Eduardo Guerrero singled.
RHSP Sterling Patick ran into a huge issue in the 2nd inning. 4 singles, 1HBP, 1 BB, 2 balks, and a SF scored 4 runs in the inning. He did not allow a run in any of the other 4 innings he pitched.
In the bottom of the 2nd inning, GL retook the lead. With one out, DH Chase Adkison drew a BB and 1B Jose D. Hernandez singled. With 2 out, Morales hit a 3-run HR (10) and a 5-4 lead.
GL opened up the lead in the 3rd. GL loaded the bases after a single from Meza, and BB from LF Cameron Decker and C Victor Rodrigues. With 2 outs, Hernandez walked to score Meza, and Quintero hit a grand slam HR (8) for a 10-4 lead.
Decker hit a 2-run HR (4) after Meza singled for 2 more runs in the 4th. Morales hit a solo HR (11) I the 5th.
RHRP Reynaldo Yean relieved Patick and pitched a scoreless inning with a BB. RHRP Seamus Barrett relieved Yean and surrendered a 3-run HR in the 7th.
In the bottom of the 7th, Meza hit his 4th single and Guerrero followed with a 2-run HR.
LHRP Jacob Frost pitched the final two innings without a run or hit. He did walk 2 and strike out 2.
- Emil Morales – 4-5, 3 runs, 4 RBI, double (9), 2 HR (11)
- Jose Meza – 4-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI
- Eduardo Guerrero – 2-5, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (4)
- Jose D. Hernandez – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI
- Eduardo Quintero – 1-5, 1 run, 4 RBI, HR (8) – Grand Slam
- Cameron Decker – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 runs. 2 RBI, HR (4)
Ontario Tower Buzzers 7 – Inland Empire 66ers (Seattle) 6
RHSP Hyun-Seok Jang had a quality start, allowing 2 runs, 4 hits, 2 BB, 8 K in 6.0 IP.
Down 1-0 in the bottom of the 1st, 1B Mairo Martinus continued his hot streak with a single. Martinus continued to 2nd on an interference error by the 1B. CF Jaron Elkins’ RBI single scored Martinus. 2B Kellon Lindsey walked and RF Ching-Hsien Ko hit a 3-run HR, with Ontario taking a 4-1 lead.
Ontario took a 5-2 lead in the 6th inning. 3B Easton Shelton doubled (19) and moved to 3rd on a WP. LF Brendan Tunink singled to score Shelton.
LHRP Peter Bonilla relieved Jang in the 7th. He allowed the 3 tying runs on 3 hits and 3 BB. He did have a blown save.
With RHRP Jhonny Jimenez on the mound in the 8th, he allowed walk, single and RBI double giving the 66ers the 6-5 lead.
In the bottom of the 9th, C Conner O’Neal and Martinus singled. Elkins singled to load the bases with O’Neal scoring on an error on the play. Lindsey walked to load the bases, and when Ko reached on an error and Martinus scored the walkoff run.
- Jaron Elkins – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Easton Shelton -2-4, 1 run, 2 doubles (19)
- Mairo Martinus – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs
- Ching-Hsien Ko – 1-5, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (15)
Discussion (99)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Well that didn’t work.
Dodgers took the day off. Offense, defense, pitching. Complete game. Fans should ask for several hundred dollars back.
It’s really sad that when an injury happens to one of our starting pitchers, there is NO reliable replacement we can bring up from AAA Oklahoma City. Bullpen games are BULLSHIT!
Kiley McDaniels’ mocks:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49315943/2026-mlb-mock-draft-final-predictions-first-two-rounds-white-sox-no-1-cholowsky-emerson-lackey
Taylor Rabe, RHP, Mississippi
Rank: 48
… I’m hearing almost entirely college players for slot at this pick.
Let’s let this be the last bullpen game of the year. Wow! Dodgers already on Cancun time
Wow Jeff. Don’t be such a slacker!
Mark gives you time off?
I will probably not be able to get my MiLB rReport out. I have emailed Mark so maybe he can get one in. I am in wine country for the next 9 days. I will let Mark which days I will not be able to cover the games. .
But I did check on the Tulsa game and Sirota did not get a hit or a walk. But he did get HBP, so his reaching base safely streak has reached 72 games.
https://x.com/TulsaDrillers/status/2075735951968453114?s=20
Do we think Freeland goes down for Keekay? Kinda has to be, right? Feels a little thin in the IF.
Impressive report, Jeff.
There’s obviously a lot of calculus that goes into a draft strategy. Conventional thinking is that the higher picks get bigger bonuses–but the Dodgers went “under slot” on George to pay more for Harlan and perhaps keep him from going to college. And so one. I was very happy about the Sirota deal when I learned the Dodgers tried to sign him out of high school and failed–because the teams scouts are awfully good at what they do.
This draft also reminds me of something I’ve overlooked when I argue against “hugging” prospects–which to me often seems like “over-hugging.”
As I’ve mentioned before, it’s funny to me that AF is often praised for driving a hard bargain in dealing prospects–but doesn’t mind opening the checkbook for a Kyle Tucker or Conforto. AF doesn’t mind overpaying with $$$ but seems stingy with talent. But the $$$ overpay also cost the team draft picks–that is, future prospects.
This draft should remind us that the actual cost for Tucker and Diaz goes beyond $$$$ to include the loss of FOUR fairly high draft picks, and the additional payroll also put the Dodgers at a lower position in the draft.
Allow me to beat a dead horse: Some people here think there is no way, no how that AF could have landed Mason Miller because the Padres dealt top SS prospect Leo DeVries for him. I think that’s silly because the Dodgers have so much greater prospect depth that the Pads that could have made a better offer. (Today, DeVries is still a prospect, ranked No. 2, a little ahead of No.4 de Paula. )
Now, it’s worth remembering that it wasn’t a straight-up DeVries for Miller deal. The Padres also gave up 3 lesser prospects but got a frontline starter in JP Sears. Yep, a blockbuster.
So imagine that the Dodgers had given up three or four prospects for Miller because (a) they, like me, wanted the best closer in the game and (b) they, like me, didn’t want him to go a rival. Whatever the reason, it didn’t happen. What DID happen is that AF ended up writing a fat check for Edwin Diaz–$69m for three seasons, if memory serves. But because Diaz and Tucker had rejected QOs, the Dodgers also had to forfeit high draft picks–and also moved down in the draft as a penalty for pushing the payroll so high.
So in my alternative universe, the Dodgers farm system would still be one of the best, but a bit thinner. But the bullpen would boast Mason Freaking Miller and the OF would maybe feature, oh, maybe Buxton or Jaron Duran or ??? instead of Kyle Not-Freaking Tucker. The Dodgers would also have a lower payroll–and also have FOUR MORE draft picks and a larger bonus pool.
Would I have dealt de Paula and Hope and a few others to land Miller and an top-tier alternative to Kyle Tucker? Si, como no? The Dodgers would still have Sirota and Quintero, both of whom are considered to be better all-around talents than de Paula and Hope. The depth chart would also guys like Tibbs, Davalan, Ehrhard, George, Ko, Elkins and more.
Heck, de Paula’s best position might be DH, and the Dodgers have that covered for a while. Why not deal from strength to acquire proven major leaguers?
The Dodgers have a good track record in the draft, so losing FOUR picks kind of hurts, doesn’t it? I always get a little excited reading about and wishing on the draft picks. I’d Diaz and Tucker were kicking ass…. but Diaz is injured and Tucker, while improving, really doesn’t seem like a $60m-per-season talent, does he?
OK, that dead horse is just a bloody, disgusting mess now.
I don’t know why, but I try to persue all avenues of logic before I post.
1. No way in hell AF trades for Skubal.
2. They will not reach just to draft a marginal catcher.
3. Rushing is young and the best backup.
4. Smith is signed long term.
5. Gasparino will sign a 16 year old catcher from San Pedro de Macoris.
6. Nuff said
Book em
A couple of young International signings:
07/08/26 Los Angeles Dodgers signed free agent RHP Jose Acevedo to a minor league contract.
07/07/26 Los Angeles Dodgers signed free agent OF Yoansy Done to a minor league contract.
10:10 PM ET
Diamondbacks (46-47)
Dodgers (61-33)
SP E. Rodriguez L
7-3 2.25 ERA
SP Kyle Hurt R (opener)
3-1 4.55 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
CF Andy Pages R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Mookie Betts R
3B Tommy Edman S
RF Kyle Tucker L
LF T. Hernandez R
2B Miguel Rojas R
C D. Rushing L
80° Wind 8 mph Out
Because Ohtani is NOT the starting pitcher tonight ,it will be a bullpen game
Vesia can’t be beat!
IF Turner becomes an on field coach next year, how will that play out in ‘best beard’ award?
Shohei scratched from pitching tonight due to that knee issue.
He’ll also miss the entire All Star game.
“Shohei Ohtani won’t make his scheduled start on the mound against the D-backs on Friday night due to left knee irritation, and the injury will also force him out of the All-Star Game in Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
Ohtani will serve as the designated hitter the rest of the weekend, but following the series against the Diamondbacks he will have some interventions on his knee to put him in the best position for the second half of the season, the club announced”.
Absolutely great piece Jeff on the draft. Your research and knowledge is remarkable and appreciated.
The fact that the Dodgers can be so successful while drafting last and after the sandwich picks, is pretty amazing.
I’m no GM and usually keep those conversations for others. But I’m going to venture an opinion about Skubal.
I personally see no need for the Dodgers, to pursuing Skubal. I would not spend any of our young outfield talent for a temporary rental. I just don’t think we need him.
Some fear Skubal going to another contender? So what would that expense provide for a competitor? For the playoffs a team would overspend for a pitcher that averaging 5.8 innings per start. That leaves 3+ innings to the bullpen for each of Skubal’s outings, on average. And how many starts can he get. That’s a lot of bucks for the bang.
Hell, it hasn’t been unusual for the Dodgers to make Joe Shit look like Cy Young for 6 innings until they can get to a team’s bullpen. I would never purge our talent pool to prevent another team for getting Skubal.
It may be a comforting acquisition for a team desperate to temporarily improve but I’m like AF in not wanting to over-pay for a player at the deadline.
By the way, I asked when the NCAA expanded college rosters and the proliferation of NIL money became available, how that might affect MLB teams signing high school players. Nobody paid attention. That fell on deaf ears. No interest. Well there is now.
Now we are seeing an impact of signing draft picks. At the top of the draft, with slot money at 9 million and down to around 2 million, that may not have much impact on signing. But kids now may turn down a couple million, make 3 years of NIL money at a strong college program, enjoy college and try to enhance their value in a later draft. And most organizations can’t afford to lose out on draft picks. That has made signing high school players more risky and requires some strong information from scouting about a kid’s sign ability.
That’s est. he has his own show in charlotte. Kyle Bailey Wfnz. Just started doing espn a couple of weeks ago. Finally got his foot in the door.
How about our old first base coach Clayton McCullough having the Marlins at 52-42 and 3 games behind Atlanta. Also White Sox at 47-45 two of the surprising teams of the 1st half. Good for them and their fan bases.
Jeff you’re amazing!! (except in your choice of NFL teams).
As much as I always prefer taking the best player available, I think this year if there is a catcher among that group of “best player available”, when we pick at 40, I’d go with catcher.
Yes, we have 2 legit ones in MLB now, but it doesn’t seem we have any legit catching prospects in the minors. So unless we trade some of our surplus outfield prospects for a catching prospect, let’s get one tomorrow.
Watford, are you ready for tomorrow??
Great stuff, Jeff.
I think Bumila has Andrew Friedman Pick written all over him. If he’s now got another elbow issue, however minor, I think he’ll be available at #40 and AF will grab him. That’s my official prediction – Bumila at #40.
We’ve lost 4 of our first 6 picks due to the Tucker signing, payroll, etc. This would be the perfect time (next 24 hours) to trade someone like Ward for a Competitive Balance pick. Would add to our pool money and do a big favor to Ward at the same time. Do it, Andrew!!
Friday thoughts.
(1) Dalton will be the starting catcher in 28.
(2) Blake Snell will have an outstanding postseason.
(3) Tyler Glasnow will not be a Dodger next season.
(4) Teo will finish out his contract with the Dodgers.
(5) River Ryan will be the 5th pitcher in the rotation next season.
(6) Emmit Sheehan will be traded either at the deadline or during the winter.
(7) Kike will finish his career with the Marlins.
(8) Alex Call will not be a Dodger next season.
(9) Skubal will not be a Dodger next season.
(10)Justin Turner will be in a Dodger uniform next season (coaching)
(11) Rojas will be in a Dodger uniform next year. (Coaching)
(12) Alex Freeland will not be the starting second baseman next season.
(13) Freddie will finish 5th in the MVP voting this season.
(14) Andy Pages has a good postseason.
(15) Edwin Diaz is not a complete bust.
(16) Tanner Scott wins comeback player of the year.
(17) Yamamoto finally gets his no hitter this season.
(18) Dodgers make a highly competitive offer to the pirates for second baseman Brandon Lowe.
(19) Vesia wins “best beard” award on the team.
(20) jolly Jess takes over all broadcast ing duties for the Dodgers. Play by play, analyst, pregame, postgame, and on field interviews in 27.
Jeff,
great work
Friday’s Dodger Affiliates’ Schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brooks Auger) vs. Dayton (JeanPierre Ortiz)
5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Carson Hobbs) vs. Springfield (Jurrangelo Cijntije)
5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Christian Romero) vs. El Paso (Miguel Cienfuegos)
6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Inland Empire (TBD)
Jeff, another fantastic article on Saturday’s draft. Although Dodger drafts don’t create much excitement in the past few years, it’s always interesting how the front office works the draft. Maybe, sacrificing with their lower first pick to sign way under slot in order to have money to pay over slot further down the draft. Regardless, they always seem to draft a gem or two. Great scouting and draft strategy by the Dodgers. Proof is with the current rosters in A and AA.
Carry on.
As always, a stellar report Jeff. Just wondering where do teams’ rate CC Sabathia’s kid? Watched a video of him hitting at the combine, he was raking. Seems he has a very good baseball IQ. D-Backs DFAd Pavin Smith.
Because we don’t have any young catching studs anywhere close, i do NOT trade Rushing. He’s way too valuable to keep, especially now as Smith is injured.
It could be a huge risk to trade Rushing, not have a healthy Smith for the rest of 2025, and have to rely on Chuckie Robinson and others to help us 3 peat.
The biggest win for Dodgers at the deadline is that Detroit keeps Skubel and he doesn’t end up in another playoff teams rotation. Then the Dodgers are huge October favorites in my opinion. Go Tigers!
Great job Jeff. as always.Hopefully we can find some catching prospects we can develop in this year’s Draft as this is one area that is definitely a weakness going forward. There are NOT any highly regarded catchers presently in the system.
From Katie Woo of The Athletic:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7432674/2026/07/09/dodgers-trade-deadline-glasnow-snell/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=147501&source=dailyemail
In a perfect world, the Dodgers repeat last year’s postseason rotation with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Snell and Glasnow (in no particular order). Moving Sheehan, Sasaki and Wrobleski to relief roles alongside a healthy Edwin Díaz — who should start a rehab assignment around the start of the second half — from the right side, and an effective Tanner Scott from the left, arguably fortifies their bullpen enough. Add a potential River Ryan call-up, and you’re feeling pretty good about the Dodgers pitching staff.
The Dodgers don’t have a clear need. They are constructing their roster for October, and they have a big enough lead in the division to slow-play the returns of key injured players like Snell, Glasnow, Will Smith and Kiké Hernández. It allows for consistent playing time for young depth pieces like Dalton Rushing and Alex Freeland while giving Los Angeles its best shot at a healthy, full-strength roster come crunch time.
Still, the Dodgers could look to improve on the margins as long as it doesn’t cost them a piece of their promising future core. That’s where Lauer comes in. He’s been serviceable as the Dodgers’ sixth starter (and given how critical that is to the health of Yamamoto and Ohtani, he’s essentially saved their rotation). Lauer is also a free agent at the end of the season, and contenders always covet starting pitching at the deadline.
The depth of the Dodgers’ starting pitching is rare. They could look to capitalize on the market and trade Lauer to bulk up the fringe of their 40-man or upper minor-league system.
From Bluto yesterday. His post was in jail:
Latest BA mock ($$$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-mock-draft-6-0-latest-first-round-pick-predictions-for-every-team/
40. Dodgers — Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
Also, Passan does a trade deadline primer for each team.
(I’m honestly unsure of what/if/where the ESPN paywall is anymore)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49306462/2026-mlb-trade-deadline-addition-top-contender-moves-dodgers-brewers-braves-yankees-phillies
Interesting under the Rangers:
Long term, the Rangers would love to address their catching needs. And while by no means are the Dodgers shopping Rushing, they’ve got Will Smith at catcher and some guy at DH, and opportunities will be limited for the foreseeable future. Were Rushing to move, the Rangers wouldn’t be the only ones interested. (Imagine that left-handed swing at Yankee Stadium.) But Texas president of baseball operations Chris Young loves fiery players, and the fit goes well beyond need.
For LAD:
Other teams need Skubal more, certainly, but that’s of little concern to the Dodgers. …while they could nibble around the margins like they did at the last deadline, the opportunity to not only add Skubal to their rotation but prevent the chance of having to face him in a crucial game is tantalizing… The Dodgers don’t necessarily like making deals with negative expected value in their model, but if the price for another banner amounts to ….
Once again, well done Jeff. The fact that colleges can outbid professional sports organizations for players I find interesting. A whole column could be written about this. Maybe it already has.
Speaking of columns, Plaschke has one this morning that will stir up some controversy. He’s good at that. The man is opinionated, that’s for sure. Red Smith Award winner, National Sports Association Hall of Fame, Joseph M. Quinn Awardee for Lifetime Achievement. Like him or hate him, he can write. More often than not, I agree with him
Morales tearing it up after a rather slow start at GL.
Same with Quintero. Both are the next wave of blue chip prospects after Sirota, dePaula and Hope.
Morales due to his position and production would be untouchable in every trade.
Wow! Your draft report was amazing, Jeff. I will be sitting with it open while watching the draft. Our farm is stacked but a catcher and some arms would be a great pick up. I imagine at #40, best available isn’t their goal.
Again, most concise draft report available. Would you consider this a strong draft compared to past ones?
Wow Jeff! Thank you for your detailed explanation of the draft process. I had no idea of the magnitude of the hole we draft in. It makes our minor league prospect talent even more amazing.