As I am sure all baseball fans have learned, the MLB Draft will be limited to five rounds. I know 2D2 is in the process of preparing a more detail analysis, but I thought a little preliminary might be worthwhile.
The draft will be remote, virtual, and will be held June 10-11. Round 1 and the Competitive Balance Round A (37 picks) will be held Wednesday, June 10. Rounds 2-5 will be held June 11. The Dodgers, with a Competitive Balance Pick after the 2nd round (67th overall) will have six selections.
For one of the few years, the Dodgers are not one of the bottom five teams when it comes to draft bonus pools. This year they have a bonus pool of $5,928,400. The bonus pool breakdown is as follows.
| Orioles | $13,894,300 |
| Tigers | $13,325,700 |
| Royals | $12,521,300 |
| Marlins | $12,016,900 |
| Pirates | $11,154,500 |
| Padres | $10,674,000 |
| Rockies | $10,339,700 |
| Mariners | $10,265,500 |
| Blue Jays | $9,716,500 |
| Giants | $9,231,800 |
| Reds | $8,552,100 |
| Cardinals | $7,901,100 |
| White Sox | $7,764,800 |
| Indians | $7,662,800 |
| Rays | $7,474,600 |
| Diamondbacks | $7,184,900 |
| Mets | $7,174,700 |
| Rangers | $7,083,900 |
| Cubs | $6,721,600 |
| Nationals | $6,647,700 |
| Angels | $6,397,100 |
| Brewers | $6,078,300 |
| Dodgers | $5,928,400 |
| Phillies | $5,444,200 |
| Athletics | $5,241,500 |
| Red Sox | $5,129,900 |
| Twins | $4,528,600 |
| Braves | $4,127,800 |
| Yankees | $3,520,000 |
| Astros | $2,202,600 |
The Dodgers bonus pool breakdown is as follows:
| Round | Bonus Amount |
| 1 | $2,424,600 |
| 2 | $1,157,400 |
| 2A | $1,003,300 |
| 3 | $581,600 |
| 4 | $434,300 |
| 5 | $327,200 |
The deadline to sign drafted players has been moved back from July 10 to August 1.
Another result of a shortened draft is limiting the number draftees from roughly 1,217 (in 2019) to 160. That is in excess of 1,050 of players that will not be drafted. What happens to them? Undrafted college seniors and juniors with a dream will sign as undrafted free agents at a maximum of $20,000. The college seniors were going to leave anyway, so it is the undrafted juniors that will put constraints on the 2021 season. That same opportunity will be provided to undrafted high schoolers, with an additional bonus of a college education after their playing career.
Colleges rely on a healthy turnover of baseball talent in order to bring quality high school baseball players into their program. College baseball scholarships are limited to 11.7 and if undrafted juniors are not selected, that will limit the number of new baseball scholarships. Also with the limited number of high schoolers that will be drafted, the number fighting for the limited scholarships will be limited to the best of the best of the best of the best.
What happens then? Junior Colleges baseball programs will be in a position to flourish. They are going to be admitting potentially more talented players to their campuses. Again this is going to produce a snowball effect with many talented baseball players with no place to play. There are multiple examples of late blooming players who will now never get a chance to fulfill their dream of playing professional baseball.
Who is going to be hurt most? IMO this will be felt mostly in the minority impoverished neighborhoods. Kids from wealthy families will be able to walk on to campuses, while the less financially fortunate will not have the same opportunity. There will be countless young baseball players with talent to play at least at the next level, that will no longer play organized baseball.
To many this is a so-what. The number of drafted players making it to MLB is so finite anyway, what difference could it possibly make? If you are only considering those that actually do make it to professional baseball, perhaps no difference. But how many kids with good skills get scholarships and an education. Sports (and baseball specifically for this blog) provide an avenue to allow kids to get an education. To too many that avenue now has a roadblock. How many scholarship athletes from impoverished neighborhoods will no longer get that education?
Now with respect to LAD. On May 14, Singing The Blue mentioned mock drafts have speculated that the Dodgers would select a college lefty pitcher, one college catcher/center fielder (quite the position combo) and one college second baseman. Specifically, Keith Law (Athletic) speculated on NC State LHP, Nick Swiney. Baseball America speculates the Dodgers will go back to the well for yet another converted catcher, Ohio State catcher, Dillon Dingler. MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis and ESPN speculate on Mississippi State 2B, Justin Foscue. Callis’ partner at MPB.com, Jonathan Mayo projects Baylor SS Nick Loftin. Mayo’s original pick was Mississippi State’s SS, Jordan Westburg. MLB.com clearly believes that LAD will go up the middle for a college bat.
Of that group, the one that makes most sense to me would be Loftin. He is the Baylor SS, but is also capable of playing all over the field. Loftin is a RH bat that uses the whole field. He is coming into some power, and the Dodgers’ development staff seem to be able to help in the power department. Baseball America ranks and believes while there may be others who are more “toolsey” or a slight upgrade defensively, Loftin seems to do it all well. BA wrote this about Loftin; “He fields his position well, has good instincts and is an above-average defender at shortstop with the versatility to play almost every position.”
The Dodgers select #29, and will be hoping that some potential top picks considered to be tough signs will drop. High school pitchers seem to be very risky and with less picks this year, some teams are going to want to make sure. One RHP that I hope drops to LAD is 6’ 4” 220 pound Nick Bitsko. Bitsko is a product of Bucks County East High School (Doylestown, PA) and has three legit pitches. Last summer Bitsko in the East Coast Pro Showcase, Bitsko’s fastball ranged from 92-96, touching 97. He also has a hard breaking ball between 78-82, and has a very promising change. There are two prep pitchers considered more of a sure thing, Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, Texas), and Mick Abel (Jesuit HS, Ore). Bitsko may drop into the second round, but will not get past Baltimore. HS pitchers are a risk, but Bitsko has a very high ceiling.
If the Dodgers do not have much to study from this year’s crop, they may go back to RHP JT Ginn. Ginn was the Dodgers first pick in 2018 and did not sign. After a respectable freshman season at Mississippi State, Ginn started this year with a lot of promise and a top ten draft pick. projection However, Ginn is now recovering from TJ surgery, and the Dodgers are very much experienced with drafting pitchers with previous TJ surgery or needing it. Ginn will not last deep into the 2nd round, so if the Dodgers still believe that Ginn is worthy of a 1st round pick, they may go back to him.
One other prospect that some baseball journalists are speculating for LAD at #29 is LH hitting LSU OF Daniel Cabrera. Scouts love Cabrera’s swing. Very little moving parts and stays in the zone for a long time. He hits to all fields and is considered to have decent but not plus power. Scouts are concerned that his power may not transferable to wood bats, but he has such control, that he is manageable. The other concern is that he is not a strong defender and is more likely to be a corner OF and probably LF. The likelihood that a non-strong defender with non-plus power may not be a fit with the Dodgers. However, he is considered to have one of the best college bats, and the Dodgers like college bats (think Hoese and Busch from 2019).
With three weeks to go, past trends have the Dodgers looking college in the first round. If all the college players speculated above (Loftin, Dingler, Foscue, Westburg, Ginn, Cabrera), are still on the board, I would lean to the Baylor SS, Loftin. His versatility may be too much for the Dodgers to pass.
I fully expect AF to sign several undrafted FA. They have a knack of finding nuggets where others cannot. They are also not shy of drafting college seniors in later rounds. The LAD scouts know these seniors and will not have wait to draft them, but will instead make an offer.
Discussion (47)
Disagree, not disagreeable
https://drcate.com/list-of-good-fats-and-oils-versus-bad/
This weekend brings to light all the veterans who made the ultimate sacrifice and did not come home or were wounded and did come home. Remembering them and all veterans. Bless you all.
Good points Bumsrap, especially your first sentence of your second paragraph. I. myself with a heart condition, would not take the hydroxymoron. I am not a moron, I do not think, but also do not fault anyone for taking it. You have to do what you believe is good for yourself.
I am on the side that believes vaccines and face masks help others as much or more than they help the vaccinated or mask wearers themselves. I can see where the more vulnerable might wait a little longer before they get the vaccine and still be protected by herd immunity, which is better than nothing.
We all need to be smart about this and considerate because we don’t know how vulnerable the person we pass by at the market may be. Covid is still here and is still easily passed on. We see lots of commercials for drugs where 15 seconds are devoted to benefits and 45 seconds are devoted to possible side affects. Like the draft, there are high upsides coupled with high risks. No need to be a hydroxymoron, not that we have any morons in here of any kind.
thought you guys might appreciate this piece regarding Gregg Jefferies regarding his status as a cant miss uber prospect to a less than stellar MLB career. Fascinating piece.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/23/gregg-jefferies-complicated-mets-failure-looks-different-now/
I’ve never been right about the draft and each year the Dodgers draft it’s so late in the first round the players most talked about are gone. The exception to that I remember most is Zach Lee. I’ll guess it will be a pitcher needing surgery that drops to them.
Vaccines are tricky. Then there is this:
“I think the 12 to 18 months that has been mentioned is optimistic,” Walter Orenstein, an Emory University medical school professor and associate director of the Emory Vaccines Center, said in an interview with BioPharma Dive. “It’s possible if everything goes right, but with most vaccines it takes longer than that.”
Raising the stakes on clinical development is the Trump administration’s “Operation Warp Speed,” which aims not only to have an approved vaccine, but also enough doses for every American by January. The president is asking the sector to compress a development cycle that can sometimes take decades into just 12 months — a feat that will require Americans to accept higher-than-usual safety risks along with the possibility the first vaccine they receive won’t work that well.
Most of what I’ve read does read like this. Of course, my searches are different than others. Must be my left leaning googler. At any rate, I think I’m with Bear on this one.
Me too STB.
I know I keep recommending articles in The Athletic and no I’m not paid to do so, but there is one from today on Greinke that’s a must read. He’s an absolute treasure.
I’d love to have him come back here and be part of the front office when he retires but he’ll probably get 30 offers.
I am not taking the vaccine period. I have gotten this far without it in a town where we have no deaths and few confirmed cases. Why should I subject myself to something like that? No happening.
In your comment above Jeff you referred to draft decisions being made by Brandon Gomes. I thought Billy Gasparino was head of scouting and would therefore have more say in the draft than Gomes. In other words, Gasparino is filling the job that Logan White used to do. Am I wrong about that?
I realize that the draft is basically a group effort and that the final decision is probably made by Andrew, but doesn’t Gasparino have more to do with the draft and Gomes more to do with player development?
Bitsko and Ed Howard would be the only high-school players, that have a realistic chance of dropping to #29, that I would take with that pick. However, I think the chance of them dropping that far are slim to none. I wouldn’t have a problem with Loftin, I just like other players better.
Fantastic article in the Athletic yesterday, “Andrew Friedman’s Dodgers are facing the ultimate test of ‘process over results’”. For those who believe that losing doesn’t hurt AF it is an even better read.
The Monday after the NLCS he gathered his staff to discuss the upcoming winter. He recognized the team as assembled was elite, but what was missing was the SUPERSTAR. He made a larger offer than any pitcher had ever received only for the Yankees to to come up with a better one, and Cole shut the bidding before AF could counter. We all know what happened with Rendon. Failed attempts to get Frankie Lindor and Mike Clevinger. He saw All Stars sign with other teams, but he was not to be deterred.
What I found to be very interesting was that it may have been a 3 game series between Boston and Tampa Bay that decided whether Mookie Betts could have been a Dodger at the break. AF was working on the parameters on a deal with Dave Dombroski, but Boston beat Tampa 2 out of 3 and then swept NYY and Mookie stayed with Boston.
So AF contacted his old buddy Chaim Bloom who was now the Boston GM to see if they could resurrect a blockbuster. It took a while, but AF got what he feels he has been missing…that Superstar. AF was searching for one last winter, so I suspect he will again go all out to sign a Superstar for 2021…Mookie Betts.
For those with Athletic subscriptions, it is a fantastic article.
I just talked to a friend from Doylestown, PA and although she does not know Nick Bitsko or his family, will keep her eyes out for news of him.
I do not know very much about the draft. But, from what I read, am putting my money on two Nicks, Loftin and Bitsko for the Dodgers to select if possible.
I think all Major League teams are using analytics Mark. Many of them were in it long before we were. I also believe an argument could be made that you may not want to be drafted by the Dodgers. Every position is blocked 3 deep and there will be free agent signings if there is ever a position of need. I won’t make that argument of course as I would risk being called unpatriotic.
Nobody drafted has to sign. I would think first round picks would go for the money, who knows after that. Wouldn’t a large group of nonsignees make next year’s draft that much deeper and therefore more competitive? I don’t know how this eventually shakes out. I still think opening up mid pandemic is a very risky plan.
I have to believe that the most fortunate youngster in baseball is Adley Rutschman. Adley was one-one in last years MLB draft and got 8 million to sign. The top 7 players drafted in 2019 got at least 5 million. Picks 23 to 34 all got at least 2 million to sign.
I haven’t followed this year’s draft as closely but i’m interested in information about how much of a discount this year’s draftees will get. With 6 million in slot money to spend on 6 picks it will be interesting who the Dodgers take. #29 in the 2019 draft cost 2.45 million leaving roughly 3.5 million for 5 more picks. The last pick in round 5 last year (#167) got $304K.
Of interest to me is since there are only 5 rounds, all the players from previous rounds 6 through 10 will all get $20,000. Those picks in 2019 all got way more. The first pick in rd 6 got $300K and the last pick in rd 10 got $142K. Compared to 20K max this year, this year’s players will take a beating with clubs saving plenty of money. So many the top picks might/will still get their money while all the undrafted kids take the beating. Seems like a great time to stay in your college program if you still have eligibility and aren’t a top pick.
I look forward to comments.
Good info here from Passan:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29207203/the-clock-ticking-2020-mlb-season-talks-here-make-deal-work-fall-apart
I also think that a lot of undrafted free agents would want to sign with LA because of their track record of developing players. They have had at least 12 players that were drafted in the Friedman era make it to the show and their development process can shorten the time it takes to climb the ladder. With RVS and Driveline as well as state-of-the-art training facilities and resources, al lot of players may want to be a Dodger.
Simply because there has been no college baseball, and no games, it is hard for me to get excited about the draft. The only players I know anything about are the guys who were written about in the baseball magazine I bought back in February. Sporting News. I get one every year.
I think some teams are going to get really lucky with talent falling in their lap after the 5 rounds. Sure, $20,000 isn’t much, and sure it would make sense to go to JC or a 4 year university, but some high school kids and/or college seniors will just want to play baseball.
I think I’m more excited thinking about the draft than I am thinking about the season.
Why? Because I know the draft will actually happen.