Chris Sale – Missed it by That Much!

Posted By on January 3, 2024

Chris Sale is a classic example of the “Best Trades You Make Are the Ones You Don’t!” Now, don’t get me wrong – It’s possible that Chris Sale may have a fine season for the Braves, but if I were forced to bet on that, I would bet that he would not! Chris will soon be 35 and has injured practically every body part a human has since 2017.

In case you forget, in his mid-to-late 20s, Sale was a Workhorse Ace for the White Sox. Look at these numbers:

  • 2012 – 18-8 3.05 ERA – 192 IP
  • 2013 – 11-14 3.07 ERA – 214 IP
  • 2014 – 12-4 2.17 ERA – 174 IP
  • 2015 – 13-11 3.41 ERA – 208 IP
  • 2016 – 17-10 3.34 ERA – 226 IP

It became apparent that after the 2016 season, the White Sox were going to trade him because they knew they could not resign him after 2017. Predictably, Dodger fans thought it incumbent upon Andrew Friedman to trade the farm for him. One trade scenario was that the Dodgers should trade Bellinger, Calhoun, Verdugo, and Lux for him. I was castigated for being a naysayer because I said he was an “injury waiting to happen.”

So, they traded him to the Boston Red Sox for Victor Diaz , Luis Alexander Basabe, Michael Kopech, and Yoán Moncada. After he was acquired by the Red Sox to be their Ace, Sale helped the Red Sox to a World Series title in 2018 but has made just 56 starts in the last four years, going 17-18 with a 4.86 ERA. He had 400 strikeouts and 79 walks in 298 1/3 innings. He was 6-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 20 starts last season.

Chris Sale had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, and returned to a big league mound on Aug. 14, 2021. He missed all but five innings in 2022 and did pitch 102 innings in 2023. This is a classic case of where you do not EVER trust the statistics. Chris Sale had filthy stuff. He threw hard and had a wicked slider to wipe out hitters. At 29, he was through being a super pitcher.

The year after he was traded was his best. In 32 starts in 2017, Sale finished with a 17–8 record, a 2.90 ERA, and an MLB-leading 308 strikeouts. He led the majors in strikeouts per 9 innings (12.93). The Red Sox clinched the AL East division with a 93–69 record.

In the first postseason appearance of his MLB career, Sale was the starting pitcher in Game 1 of the Division Series against the Houston Astros. He allowed nine hits and seven runs in five innings, taking the loss. He then pitched in relief in Game 4, allowing four hits and two runs in 4-2⁄3 innings – again taking the loss, as the Astros eliminated the Red Sox with a 5–4 win. Sale had a postseason ERA of 8.38 while striking out 12 and walking one in 9-2⁄3 innings pitched. In all fairness to him, the Trash Can Bangers likely struck again!

In 2018, he spent considerable time on the Injured List but was a part of the Red Sox World Series winning team that year. He was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 158 IP. On March 23, 2019, Sale signed a five-year, $145 million extension with the Red Sox. Sale earned $15 million in 2019 via a club option in his prior contract, with the extension covering 2020 through 2024, plus a vesting option for 2025.

The Braves are in a “Win Now” mode and are trying to catch lightning in a bottle, so they acquired Sale for Vaughn Grisson, a soon-to-be-23-year-old with six more seasons of control. He profiles as a second baseman… much like Red Sox Legend Dustin Pedroia. The Red Sox also paid $17 MM of Sale’s remaining contract. My son-in-law, who is a rabid Red Sox fan (is there any other type?), says that Sale is the worst trade the Red Sox ever made (he doesn’t remember Babe Ruth). I said, “Yeah, he he helped you win a World Series. Wasn’t that worth it?” He said an emphatic “NO!”

Do you think Clayton Kershaw was bad in the Playoffs? Sale ends his Red Sox Career with a 6.35 ERA. The Dodgers dodged a bullet by not trading for Sale. By the way, my son-in-law says that he is very envious of Dodger fans: “The Red Sox win a World Series every now and again, but they suck the rest of the time. I’d rather be like the Dodgers.”

Chris Sale will be 35 in March. Charlie Morton is 40. Max Fried will be 30 and has been injured and hot and cold. Spencer Strider is their Ace, with a 3.86 ERA last season. Bryce Elder had a 3.81 ERA last season (20.25 in the playoffs), and Reynaldo Lopez and AJ Smith-Shawver round out the rotation. I’ll still take the Dodgers’ arms any day!

P.S. I am hearing rumblings that Clayton will be back with the Dodgers by August or sooner.

This article has 57 Comments

  1. Mark
    I am a tad older than you so my best 10 Dodger years were 1955 to 1964. My favorite players were the Duke and Sandy. Nice decade 3 world series victories with 2 against the hated Yanks. I hope you are right about the Braves and their pitching falters I believe that Kershaw coming back healthy is huge. Is their badblood between Kershaw and Ohtani hop not. Go Bums

    1. I was 11 in 1964 and just getting into the swing (pun intended) of Dodger Baseball.

      I happen to think that Yamomoto should have a few good years before injury. I think Glasnow will be in the Cy Young Race and that Buehler will at least return to a #3 or #4 starter. The biggest growth will likely come from Miller, Sheehan, and Stone, but don’t count Knack out, and Yarbrough will be a great LH opener for 2-4 innings every 6 to 7 days.

      Chris Sale had many injuries. Other than the oblique, Glasnow has had just one – for four years. I like this year’s rotation, and I wish Andrew Friedman had never said, “Let’s be pigs.” Pigs get slaughtered!

    2. I was seven when the Dodgers won in 55. They were still in Brooklyn, so we only followed them in the Sporting News. Duke was my favorite player, probably because I hit left-handed. Those were great years. 55-65 were very good times for the Dodgers. Four World Championships, two against the Yanks, and the sweep in 63 was epic. It was a simpler time then.

  2. If the Braves had acquired Chris Sale 10 years ago, that would have been a big deal. But not so much now. Sale is simply not what he used to be, that’s obvious. The Braves are still a very good team. Are they better than the Dodgers? I don’t think so. Are they better than the Phillies? That’s up for debate.

    It will be good to get Clayton Kershaw back. Hopefully that happens. Kershaw may be primed, after the surgery, being pain free, to have an impresssive second half. I know in these days of very few players finishing entire careers with their original team, but I still thinks it’s incredibly cool. Kershaw just wouldn’t look right in anything other color than Dodger Blue.

  3. Very cool seeing Sandy Amoros commenting. I’m friends with Denny McLain and it’s interesting hearing the view from a real ballplayer. BTW, Denny is a pretty big Dodger fan. One name that keeps getting forgotten is Kyle Hurts. 152 K’s in 90 innings anywhere is impressive. I think Kyle is destined for an MLB rotation somewhere. I’m still hoping that the brass looks into getting a steady left fielder. If Vargas or Busch steps up that’s great. I love homegrown ball clubs. Trouble is having enough roster space for both of them.

  4. Passan reports that Dodgers still in on Hernandez. That would probably close the door on Vargas and Busch for 24. That would be disappointing for me.

    1. Don’t cut your throat yet. Hernandez is a Taylor clone and they do not need two of that kind of player. D-Backs signed Tucker Barnhart. He was signed by the Dodgers last year after he had been released by the Cubs. Played in a few games at AAA.

    2. They will get Hernandez only if they can steal him and I don’t think they can. He should be a platoon player. The Dodgers leak this stuff to drive up the market. I don’t think they have any intention of going that direction.

    3. To be fair, it’s not just the Dodgers who Passan has “in on” Teoscar.

      He does, interestingly, NOT have the Dodgers in on Luzardo.

  5. I was just listening to one of the Braves announcers, Mark Bowman, and he was talking about Von Grisson and how all off-season last year, Alex Anthropolus was touting that Grissom was the SS in 2023. Many baseball people did not think he could play SS, and sure enough, he couldn’t and didn’t. He’s really a 2B, but the Braves have Albies.

    I still say that Gavin Lux is not a SS… and I am not the only one who thinks that. Mookie Betts would like to play 2B, BUT I BETTS HE WOULD LOVE SS! Eric and I are the only ones who have floated that, but moving Mookie to SS makes Rojas expendable. I would love Lux at 2B.

    Lineup:
    1. Betts SS
    2. Ohtani DH
    3. Freeman 1B
    4. Smith C (I think Will is ready for a “breakout” year
    5. Muncy 3B
    6. Vargas LF (RH hitter – he’s healthy – put him there and let him play)
    7. Lux 2B (18 HR/.825 OPS – Don’t worry about knee)
    8. Outman/Margot CF (my opinion)
    9. Heyward/Hernandez (re-sign Kike)

    Bench: Barnes, Taylor

    Busch is traded for prospects (good ones)

    Rojas traded for a prospect!

    1. You might be right, but until he actually gets some serious time at the position, it is all guess work. Dodgers will be paying out 105 million for Yamamoto this year. How you ask?? Ok, posting fee 50.56 million A 50 million dollar signing bonus, and a 5-million-dollar salary,

    3. Betts at SS is not a terrible idea, although it wasn’t his natural position when coming up in the minors. It allows Lux to go to second … but again, you’re obsessing over Lux not being able to play SS. Maybe he can’t. I will agree with you that I think he may lack the arm strength, but that was his position when the Dodgers drafted him and they’re going to give him every opportunity to settle into at that position … just like they gave Vargas a long runway at 2nd. You supported that, didn’t ya? …and Vargas is a lousy defender everywhere he plays. You have to give young players a chance before you write them off.

      Perhaps one thing you overlooked is that, with Betts probably toggling back and forth between 2nd and RF depending on matchups, it leaves a natural spot for Vargas to get some playing time. Vargas sure as hell isn’t going to be playing SS. The only options for him are LF and 2nd, so, if you want the Dodgers to go get a Teoscar – no Vargas. If you want Lux at 2nd – no Vargas.

      …and who plays SS when Betts plays right? CT3? But wait! Outman HAS to be platooned! CT3 is supposed to play for Outman. …but who plays SS?

        1. Hurt is very much in the mix for the Dodgers’ bullpen this season. He has closer potential, but my hope is that the Dodgers try to stretch him out as a starter.
          Pedro Martinez, Bob Welch, Dave Stewart–all broke into the majors as relievers with the Dodgers. Who was the last Dodger to successfully transition from the bullpen to the rotation?
          My gut impression is that the Dodgers front office is a bit too quick to classify a young pitcher for a certain role.

          1. I tend to think that they take too long. Michael Grove is an example.

            Hurt really only has two pitches: A 60 fastball and a 60 Changeup. His control is a 45! BA Says this about him:

            He previously had below-average control and poor fastball command, but after dropping 30 pounds, he now maintains his delivery better and throws strikes at a fringy but effective clip. He has yet to throw more than five innings in a start and must improve his durability.

            The Future: Hurt’s improvements give him a chance to remain a starter if he can continue building on them. He projects to be a hard-throwing No. 4 starter or a high-octane reliever.

            I love him in the bullpen.

        2. Mookie is an exceptional athlete, and it’s likely that his fielding would improve with experience at the position.
          That said, I expect Lux to be SS and Mookie at 2B. And it wouldn’t surprise me if Mookie wins a Gold Glove.

      2. Surprised to see Dodger patch support Betts as a full time SS.
        He is 31 already, and converting successfully from OF to SS is very unlikely at that age.
        I am optimistic that Lux can handle SS, and at least we should see how he bounces back from injury.
        If Lux is not capable at SS, then Rojas is excellent defensively, and Taylor has played SS competently for a decade in the MLB.
        Betts is a gold glove RFer multiple times. And can play a decent 2nd base. IMO, the Dodgers are best right now with Betts in RF, Outman in CF, Heyward in LF and Margot/Taylor as backups.
        Second base can be filled by several players including Vargas, Busch, Taylor, Rojas, and Muncy. Lux and Betts can also fill in at 2nd base

        1. I said it’s not a terrible idea, not that I wholeheartedly support it. I think I’d still prefer the original Dodger plan to start Lux at SS and Betts at 2nd.

          Like you said about Vargas, I just think it’s easier to keep Betts at 2nd and Lux at SS, and if you want to put Betts back out in right, it’s easy enough to just put Vargas at 2nd, rather than this complex shell game where Lux has to slide over to a demanding position like SS so Vargas can play 2nd and Betts right. I think you have to really commit to SS.

      1. Busch’s problem is that he hit’s left-handed and his natural positions are 1st and 3rd. He has only played about 17 games total in the outfield in the majors and minors. He isn’t going to DH, and Muncy and Freeman are entrenched at third and first. Use him in a trade for a frontline starting pitcher. Vargas has not much more experience, 37 games, but he hit’s right-handed and has good bat to ball skills. He can give you maybe 15-20 homers if he reaches his potential.

        1. Why can’t you put Busch at 3rd and have Muncy DH? I’d sure hate to trade Busch before seeing what he could do if given the chance, that would be selling low IMO.

          2. The Dodgers could do that. They’d just have to trade their current DH or bench him.

            “Sorry Ohtani. You gotta go. We wanna play Busch at third, and you’re the odd man out.”

          3. Jay B: My bad yep that won’t work, sorry about that just want them to give Busch a chance is all. I think he has potential to be a decent player.

        2. I suspect Busch would be better in LF than 3B.
          He’s a good athlete with decent speed, and his arm would be less of an issue in LF.
          I expect Lux to be at SS, but if the Dodgers deal for Adames and his righthanded power, I hope the Dodgers keep Busch and deal Vargas.
          At the very least, Busch could platoon with Taylor in LF. Or maybe he’d hit well enough to play full-time.

    5. It’s fun to see that Mark is still banging the “platoon Outman” drum.
      Looks like a one-man parade to me.
      Presumably Mark would have Margot batting against lefties while Outman sits.
      But in 2023, Margot only hit to a .665 OPS against lefties, with a weak .293 OBP.
      Meawhile, Outman also hit to .665 OPS against lefties–but his OBP was an impressive .357. He was one reason that Mookie set a record for RBIs from the leadoff spot.
      And while Outman and Margot are sharing a job, Mark would give Miguelito the full-time “runway” in LF!
      So the plan would be to demote Outman after he had a .790 OPS and finished 3rd in ROY voting–and give Miguelito a big promotion despite his struggles in 2023. (Is that because progress isn’t linear?)
      Against all pitching, Vargas batted .195 with an OPS of .672 and an OBP of .305. While his injuries may have been a factor in ’23, Vargas put up similar numbers during his debut in ’22.
      While I’m fine with giving Miguelito a third chance to prove himself–he can’t be that bad, can he?–the data suggests that it would make more sense to simply start Margot in LF. In ’23, he batted .266 with an OPS of .686, while providing stellar defense. Another option is Chris Taylor, who hit to a .746 OPS overall and .795 against lefties. Taylor is also a quality defender.
      I’m also fine with Vargas being traded and Busch the runway in LF. I’m also fine with both being deal
      But hey, it’s good to know that Mark really doesn’t have any favorite players. Just ask him.

      1. I don’t play favorites.

        Talent trumps it all. You don’t manufacture talent.

        The Dodgers felt that Vargas was ready last year and so did I. I had as much confidence in Vargas as I did in Bellinger and Seager.

        He broke two fingers and could not swing the bat well and it messed him up for lots of reasons any logical person could understand.

        Only an ignoramus or a novice would change their mind about Vargas due to what happened. Which one are you? You act like a child – a spoiled one at that!

        Certainly AF has not changed his opinion.

        Secondly, lets me explain a few things to you, son:

        1. Margot was injured most of last season, so again, to cherry-pick last years stats brands you as a dumbass.

        2. Margot’s career splits against lefties are as follows:
        .281 BA – .341 OB% – .760 OPS!

        You have used up 8 of your 9 lives.

        I do not play well with fools.

        1. Career splits versus “What have you done for us lately?”
          OK, let’s compare careers, fool.
          Outman’s career OPS against all pitching is .806. His OPS+ is 117. (For those who don’t know, the average OPS+ is 100 by definition.)
          Margot’s very best OPS for a season was .721 in 2017. His OPS+ for his career is 91, below average. (His defense and speed help make up for that.)
          Outman is a couple years younger than Margot, and there’s no reason to think he can’t improve on his fine rookie season. But apparently you would prefer to sit him against lefties, which would hamper his progress.
          I read several reports that suggest that Margot’s splits make him a fine platoon partner for Heyward. But you’re still determined to demote Outman and promote Vargas.
          After all, you want to give your boy Miguelito a full-time job in LF.
          Vargas’s career OPS+ is 73. Whether aching or not, he’s been pretty weak.
          Will Vargas break out? Maybe. But you’ve lowered your own projections for him. As I recall it, you used to predict that he’d hit .300–and now it’s more like .285 and 15-18 HRs.
          If Miguelito in ’24 produces exactly the same numbers that Outman produced in ’23–a 3.3 WAR, a .790 OPS, 23 HRs, 16 steals in 19 attempts–wouldn’t we all consider that a success?
          I certainly would.
          So again: If you don’t play favorites, why do you want to demote Outman?
          I can see why maybe Vargas merits a third chance to prove himself.
          But does anybody else here think Outman really needs to be platooned?

  6. Dodgers just traded Bryan Hudson to the Brewers for LHP Justin Chambers and a PYBNL. They also received some cash. Chambers is 18 years old. He was selected in the 20th round of the 23 draft. He has not pitched professionally. He had TJ surgery while in high school. He was considered the top pitcher in Arizona.

    1. The Dodgers rally like guys who had TJ surgery. Good to see they got something for Hudson.

      1. As per Josh Thomas:

        For those keeping score, the Dodgers took a minor league free agent from a year ago, DFA’d him, and flipped him for an 18 year old who signed for 4th round money. Ridiculous work in the margins.

      2. There are three types of pitchers:

        1. Those who are getting ready to have TJ in a year or three;
        2. Those who have had TJ; and
        3 Those who have had it twice!

        😉

  7. Busch will not be in LF (unless they trade Lux) . The Dodgers have too many LH bats as it is.

    1. So who is your left fielder against righty starters?
      JHey in right.
      Outman in center.
      Why not Busch in left, or would you rather start CT3 or Margot against right handed pitchers?

      1. Vargas!

        I would give LF to Vargas out of Spring Training and let it be his job to lose. Vargas has never had to be platooned.

        1. How do Vargas’s minor league splits compare to Busch’s?
          I’m not sure where to look that up. But Busch’s overall numbers were so impressive I assume he must have been good against both lefties and righties.
          Right now, Vargas has two advantages: He bats righty and he’s a couple years younger than Busch.
          On the other hand, Busch projects to have more power, while Vargas supposedly makes more contact.
          What about defense? Are both “serviceable” in LF? I’ve read that both Busch and Vargas should ideally play 1B. Perhaps a trade can help them there.
          It’s a longshot, but if the Dodgers offer a package for Luzardo, the Marlins might like Vargas’s Cuban roots. (Luzardo is from Peru. I can’t think of another Peruvian baller.) Luzardo’s 26, and with 3 years of control on his contract. If the Dodgers think he’s the real deal, why not make a strong offer?
          It’s fun to read that Jeondry Vargas continues to impress.
          It would be great for the Dodgers to develop a true young can’t-be-denied phenom like Trout or Acuna or Soto or Wander Franco… well, maybe not Wander.
          Oh just noticed that Bryan Hudson was traded…. to the Brewers!
          I wonder if any other names came up.

      2. Depends on the final roster.
        If Busch is still around, he can at least platoon in LF. But as it stands he seems the most likely position player to be traded.
        And it would probably be best for Busch. He’s 26 years old and has earned a real shot.

    1. I have only seen highlights of Quintero, but what I have seen is pretty dang good:

      He is on my radar.

    1. Good for him. The Reds could use him. They are my second favorite team. They are a long way back from the Dodgers.

      1. Clemente was originally a Dodger and lost in the rule 5 draft after his first minor league season. Rickey was running the Pirates then and former Dodger coach and scout, Clyde Sukeforth alerted him to the fact they had tried to hide the bonus baby Clemente in the minors.

  10. I don’t understand the too many LHB thing. Don’t you want as many LHB when there is a right-handed starting pitcher? I don’t know the exact number but I’ll guess that 85% of starting pitchers are right handed. Therefore a LHB is more valuable than a RHB.

    In my opinion, this is the outfield as it stands right now:

    Taylor everyday in LF. He has pretty much equal career splits.

    Outman everyday in CF. Give him a long runway to improve against LHP.

    Heyward/Margot platoon in RF.

    The 13 man position player roster as of right now stands at 12. I think Busch could be number 13 platooning with Taylor in LF. Or AF could get an everyday outfielder. Notice I didn’t say LF? It’s because the outfield is so versatile.

    I don’t see any way Vargas could make the team. If anything Vargas would be called up if/when an injury happens. Taylor could be moved around anywhere except catcher to fill in for the injured player. That would allow for Vargas to be called up to platoon with Busch in LF.

    The simple thing is to get an everyday outfielder and this discussion would be over.

    I’m more confidant in Dodgers homegrown pitchers than homegrown position players.

    Just my 2 cents.

    1. I don’t know the exact number but I’ll guess that 85% of starting pitchers are right handed.

      It’s double that – 29% are LH.

      That’s why.

      Evidently, the trees are in the way of the forest.

          1. Is this about Vargas? I mean Vargas could tear it up in spring training and force himself onto the roster as a starter if AF doesn’t get an everyday outfielder. That’s possible.

            But God a long runway should be given to Outman for one little thing. Key words: one little thing.

            Hell, I like your idea of trading Rojas. Maybe that gives Vargas a spot.

  11. I think the Chris Sale trade is a win for both teams but especially the Braves. Sale is injury prone but when healthy he is a dominant pitcher. His career era is 3.10 and in his last 15 starts in 2023 he had a 3.15 ERA. The Braves are only paying $500,000 for Sale this year with another 10 million deferred until 2039. The Red Sox pickup the other $17 million this year. Plus the Braves have a $20 million team option for next year. And while Grissom is a good young prospect, the Braves have no place to play him. He is a lot like Busch or Vargas for the Dodgers without a starting position.
    Sale has had a much better career than Glasnow and is only 4 years older. The Braves are taking a calculated risk on Sale for $10 million plus one prospect. The Dodgers gave up two prospects and have guaranteed $137 million for Glasnow.
    While Glasnow has great potential and a greater likelihood of success this year, he does not have anywhere near the track record of Sale. And the Braves risk in Sale is pretty limited.

  12. Eric mentions that Vargas could “tear it up in spring training and force himself onto the roster.”
    That’s precisely what Outman did.
    We don’t know who will be on the roster in spring training, but I hope it’s an open competition in LF. Maybe Vargas prevails–or maybe it’s Taylor or Busch or Pages or a player to be named later.
    Right now, it’s the only question mark on the roster.

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