You asked for it, so you got it! Yesterday, the subject of Minor League Splits was brought up, and the fact of the matter is that they are hard to find and sometimes incomplete. You can find them at www.Baseball-Reference.com under the player. The problem is that the stats are all lumped together if the player (like Miguel Vargas) played in the Majors and Minors (like in 2023). So, if you look at Vargas in 2023, for some reason, his injuries prevented him from hitting lefties as well as he had in the past.
Let’s look at Miguel Vargas’ splits by year:
2023 (Age 23) Majors & Minors Combined
VS. RHP – 410 PA .254 BA .373 OB% .395 SLG .768 OPS 7 HR
VS. LHP – 179 PA .209 BA .313 OB% .477 SLG .790 OPS 10 HR
2022 (Age 22)
VS. RHP – 432 PA .283 BA .377 OB% .465 SLG .842 OPS 13 HR
VS. LHP – 138 PA .323 BA .428 OB% .532 SLG .960 OPS 5 HR
2021 (Age 21)
VS. RHP – 410 PA .310 BA .373 OB% .541 SLG .914 OPS 21 HR
Vs. LHP – 131 PA .345 BA .402 OB% .479 SLG .881 OPPS 2 HR
2019 (Age 19)
VS. RHP – 437 PA .301 BA .381 OB% .430 SLG .811 OPS 6 HR
VS. LHP – 122 PA .330 BA .377 OB% .473 SLG .850 OPPS 1 HR
2018 (Age 18)
VS. RHP – 164 PA .296 BA .374 OB% .423 SLG .797 OPS 2 HR
VS. LHP – 65 PA .414 BA .477 OPS .569 SLG 1.046 OPS 0 HR
He started out as a skinny 18-year-old and developed into a man. So, for his Minor League Career, Miguel Vargas Averages:
470 Games 2135 PA .310 BA .393 OB% .487 SLG .879 OPS
Now, let’s look at James Outman, who stated at a much older age:
2022 (Age 25)
VS. RHP – 415 PA .324 BA .425 OB% .665 SLG 1.090 OPS 27 HR
VS. LHP – 160 PA .236 BA .325 OB% .414 SLG .739 OPS 5 HR
2021 (Age 24)
VS. RHP – 394 PA .261 BA .373 OB% .511 SLG .884 OPS 17 HR
VS. LHP – 97 PA .284 BA .402 OB% .407 SLG .810 OPS 1 HR
2019 (Age 22)VS. RHP – 252 PA .227 BA .328 OB% .414 SLG .741 OPS 15 HR
VS. LHP – 106 PA .223 BA .302 OB% .383 SLG .685 OPS 4 HR
2018 (Age 21)
VS. RHP – 173 PA .276 BA .358 OB% .493 SLG .852 OPS 7 HR
VS. LHP – 64 PA .232 BA .328 OB% .482 SLG .810 OPS 4 HR
James Outman’s Minor League Averages:
403 Games 1795 PA .263 BA .263 OB% .496 SLG .859 OPS
James Outman started as a 21-year-old in a league of 17 and 18-year-olds, while Miguel Vargas started as an 18-year-old in a league of 18 to 21-year-olds and was always a skinny kid. You can see how his power developed. James Outman has great power against RHP, but not so much against LHP.
Miguel Vargas was always the youngest player in his league, while James was one of the older ones. Varga’s splits are consistent, and his power has developed and will develop even more as he matures. He just turned 24. If you can’t see the talent from the stats, then God help you. Maybe you should have watched him play. No case can be made from the splits that Vargas should be platooned, while even Ray Charles can see that Outman struggles against LHP. He is Joc 2.0. That, Ladies and Gentlemen, is why Vargas needs a longer runway. The talent dictates it! If you think James Outman is ever going to hit LHP, you likely believe in these guys, too:
I will look at Busch’s splits at a later date. Hint: They are not as good as Vargas.
The Next Big Thing: Emil Morales, SS
The Dodgers are in line to sign one of the Top International Bonus players, Emil Morales, a SS out of DR, who is 17. The International Signing Bonus Period opens on January 15th, but generally, an agreement is already in place before it is official. BA has this to say about him:
<i>Morales consistently strings together quality at-bats. He has a mature offensive approach, recognizes pitches well and has performed well against live pitching. It’s a sound swing for his age with power that has trended up as he has added strength to his lower half and should spike more in the coming years. Morales is an offensive-oriented shortstop who is built more like a third baseman, with many scouts believing he will slide over to third base in the near future. He’s a below-average runner who is a steady defender on the balls he gets to at shortstop with a solid-average arm, though his actions and mobility likely fit best at third base. </i>
You can watch him here:
Great job Mark. I really want Miquel to be a stud major leaguer. Love having homegrown talent reach stardom in the big leagues. My only concern is if for whatever reason, he can’t handle the pressure of fans, big stadiums, big big cities, media attention and falters….it has happened many many times with can’t miss prospects…probably more times than we can imagine. Therefore, if we can get back proven talent to be our everyday LF in exchange for Vargas, I would be in favor. Hopefully, everything works out and we get another stud right handed bat in our lineup and turns out to be Miquel. Dumb question, but Yamamoto qualifies as a rookie and has the inside track for rookie of the year ?
Being able to handle the pressure is a thing, but his struggles last year were the result of two broken fingers and all the bad stuff that comes from trying to compensate. You have to start your swing sooner, and you can’t check it as easily. In hindsight, the Dodgers should have put him on the IL, but I am sure he was not wanting to do that. This is a new season, and they need to find out what he can do when he is healthy. Very few players who have hit at every level don’t make it.
Yamamoto is a rookie and can be in the running. There are others: Paul Skenes, Ethan Salas, James Wood, Jordon Lawler, Jackson Merrill – it depends upon who is ready.
Update above!
Wouldn’t you think that Vargas is next in line for 3B in 25? Got to think he’s our LF at start of year and it’s his to lose. I really like Busch but there just seems to be no opportunity with Dodgers and he’s 26. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t packaged in a deal for another starter. And let’s sign Hader. Let’s be pigs! He’s a huge October difference maker.
Josh Hader is not signing with LA.
Feinsand guesses (not reports:)
Imanaga signs with the Mets, Montgomery reunites with the Yankees and Snell signs with the Angels … or Giants.
I hope he’s right about Snell.
The Angels are hurting and need some sort of win.
My hopes for an October Freeway Series are extremely dim now. Just a year ago, it seemed like a real possibility.
Thanks for minor league stats re Vargas , but the split comparison I really want to see is between Vargas and Busch, as they are actually competing against each other for the LF job (and to back up 3B, 2B and 1B.)
We are all familiar (too familiar) with your Vargas v. Outman obsession, but Outman has already earned a full-time job in CF. The Dodgers didn’t platoon him in ’23 and there’s little reason to think this is likely in ’24. Heyward will be platooned in RF, and platoon in LF is certainly possible. But Outman was so good in CF in ’23–on offense and defense–that he finished 3rd in ROY voting and just he just earned a performance bonus under the collective bargaining agreement north of $500,000.
Outman has consistently shown an ability to improve, as the Dodger brass know. Can he improve against southpaws? Sure, why not? And even though he lacked power against lefties in ’23, he still got on base at a solid .350 clip, and stole 16 bases in 19 tries. So he was productive even when he wasn’t slugging. How many times did Mookie or Freddie knock him in?
But what about Busch?
His minor league stats were so good in ’23, with an OPS up in Ohtani territory, that I have to assume that he bit both righties and lefties hard.
In the unlikely event that both Vargas and Busch are still around come Opening Day, perhaps Busch should get the full-time runway in LF instead of Vargas. The assumption has been that Vargas should be favored because he bats righthanded–but that makes no sense if Busch is just as adept at hitting lefties.
AF may soon face the choice of dealing Vargas or Busch. (I wonder if their names came up when DeLuca was dealt. Perhaps the Rays wanted a proven outfielder to replace Margot.) If the Dodgers truly see Busch as an everyday player, perhaps he should get the LF runway, or perhaps share it with Chris Taylor.
The Dodgers need an RH hitter that does not have to be platooned, so Busch ios not competing for the LF spot as they have too many LH Hitters currently.
If LF is between Busch and Vargas, Busch will be traded.
I get that thinking, but if Busch hits lefties as well as Vargas does, it seems like a moot point. I’ve long assumed that Busch will be traded. I would rather see a package deal that immediately improves the roster than a deal for a prospect who may or may not pan out.
Meanwhile, DodgersNation is promoting Pham as an option:
“Last year, Pham had a .787 OPS against left-handers and a .768 OPS against righties, with far more power against lefties. After the season ended, he mentioned he wanted the Dodgers to trade for him at the deadline.
The Dodgers have another chance to acquire Pham as a free agent. They could do far worse than a player who plays at least 130 games a year, wants to be on the team, and can do damage against lefties.”
To me, Pham makes more sense than Teoscar Hernandez. He’s cheaper and doesn’t K as much. Last year I was a bit surprised when AF signed David Peralta. But he was a proven veteran and so is Pham.
Interesting report on Emil Morales.
Impossible to know which teenagers will develop into stars, but I’m loving the updates on Jeondry Vargas, Josue DePaula and Kendall George.
Hoping that Cartaya and Rushing can get back on track.
Good analysis by Mark.
I agree with him that Vargas has consistently hit, and his poor performance in 2023 could be mostly injury related.
I would like both Vargas and Busch to be given chances in spring training to earn a MLB starting role. They have proven themselves as great MILB hitters and deserve a chance to earn a MLB role.
Outman had a really good rookie year, and should be the primary CF this year. I agree that he hits RHP better than LHP and I would be ok playing Margot or Taylor against most LH starters. However, I don’t agree with Mark that Outman is a 4th or 5th OF. He had Fangraphs WAR of 4.4 last year with a 790 OPS and salary of only $750,000. For comparison, Harrison Bader just signed with the Mets for a $10.5 million salary even though his OPS was .622 last year and .650 in 2022. Outman was rated as the 4th best CF in the entire MLB in 2023 by Fangraphs WAR, and the 10th best overall OF in all of the MLB. He was a very good CF in 2023, and a very valuable asset for the team.
It should be noted that Fernando Tatis Jr, another outfielder with a contract over 300 million, had the same exact 4.4 WAR. No one who isn’t insane would say he’s a 4th outfielder. Xander Bogaerts also had 4.4 WAR, as did Will Smith.
Outman was 3rd in the ROY award, behind a guy who got MVP votes and another guy who got Cy Young votes.
You’d think that would earn Outman just a little credit. Naw.
That poor horse!! Not only has Mark beaten that “Outman is a 4th outfielder” horse to death, but the poor equine creature is just a wet stain on the ground.
All I can say is “Watch and Learn.”
I also said that James Outman could hit 40 HR.
I am not banging on Outman – I am just stating what I am seeing. Perhaps it is time for you to be fitted with glasses.
I also loved Kike Hernandez as a player, but never thought he should not be platooned and was fine to see the Dodgers let him walk.
Why do people get so “Butt Hurt” when I say James Outman can’t hot lefties? Becuase he can’t!
Don’t forget “5th outfielder”. He said that too.
I said 4th or 5th!
… and I stand by it.
I loved Kike, but felt the dame about him.
What do you get so “butt hurt” over this?
I guess the truth hurts!
There is no doubt that Vargas’ performance suffered due to the hand injury. Given his development track record one can reasonably expect the bat to translate in the majors; same can be said about Busch. Of course, unless they decide to go the Andy Laroche route.
I believe one or both are going to be in play next season. Either on the major league roster or as trade collateral.
Considering the way the Dodgers handled Lux, who was more highly touted than both Vargas and Busch but not anointed as the SS until last season, I expect the Dodgers to tread lightly/carefully with assigning an every day role to either player. I believe they are on the radar; however, neither AF nor Roberts are going to lay performance expectations on young players as it can be counterproductive for obvious reasons.
I envision a scenario where Vargas become a key bat off the bench occasionally displacing Muncy at 3B and Betts 2B to give both guys days off. While Busch occasionally giving Freeman a day off at 1B while potentially finding significant playing time in LF.
I realize we have Taylor and Rojas as INF subs, but I see Taylor, along with Margot, platooning more in the OF against LHP. Given his rather anemic bat, I foresee Rojas primarily splitting time with Lux, who is returning from a significant injury.
Trevor Bauer seems contrite:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/former-dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauer-185515949.html
Considering Bauer still has an active civil case against him in Arizona, it remains a long shot that he signs with a MLB club. If he can successfully put that pending case behind him, I believe everyone is entitled to second chances. In particular when he is now taking responsibilities for his mistakes.
I’ve never been a fan of his antics, but I love the work ethic and dedication he has for his craft.
Prospects are prospects until they are not. I can remember more than a few that were supposed to be the next great thing, and they all performed in the minors. It doesn’t mean anything until they actually perform at the big league level.
I am always reminded of a Sports Illustrated cover from 1968 for an article talking about the hottest rookies coming up. One guy was catcher “John” Bench. The young Dodger pitcher on the cover was Alan Foster. He was mediocre at best (he had been a 2nd round draft pick and was a can’t miss guy) and was traded away in a few years.
https://vault.si.com/vault/1968/03/11/some-hot-rookies-for-a-new-season
Will Vargas be good? Will Busch? No one knows – not Mark or anyone else. We hope he will be good. We think that the minor league stats suggest he will be good. But we don’t know.
We know that Outman has gotten off to a pretty good start and that he has good athletic ability and a lot of swing and miss in his game. Will he improve or regress? We don’t know that either, but at this point he may be a better risk than Vargas simply because he has performed pretty well at the MLB level and Vargas has not yet.
Good perspective on rookies!
Love the blast from the past!
Interesting article about Trevor Bauer trying to make a comeback.
https://sports.yahoo.com/former-dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauer-185515949.html
Yes, interesting stuff. He should get a shot with somebody.
I shared the same link earlier but it appears my post landed in jail, no pun intended. Apparently, there is still an active civil case against Bauer. I am guessing no one will sign him until that is resolved.
It is encouraging to hear him take responsibility for his actions and appear contrite about the whole experience. In particular, the position he put MLB, Dodgers, teammates and folks around him. I believe in second changes, but I do not think we are there yet. Emphasis on the yet.
+1
Here’s the Civil cases against Bauer in Arizona according to AZ Central:
Baseball pitcher Trevor Bauer has been accused by another woman of sexual assault and choking her unconscious, this time in Arizona in late 2020, when the woman said in court filings that he raped her, got her pregnant and also held a jagged steak knife to her throat.
Bauer, 32, has denied the allegations in court records and has countersued the woman, accusing her of fraud, extortion and fabricating her pregnancy. The woman filed her civil complaint against him in December and then amended it more recently with details of her alleged encounters with him, becoming the fourth publicly known woman to make similar allegations against the former Cy Young Award winner.
Bauer since has moved on to play professionally in Japan after being suspended by Major League Baseball under its sexual assault and domestic abuse policy. He was released by the Los Angeles Dodgers in January and then went unsigned by other teams in MLB after being reinstated from his 194-game suspension, the longest in MLB history under that policy.
The Arizona woman asked for $3.7 million in her lawsuit, along with an “apology to any women the defendant has sexually humiliated and abused against their consent.”
Bauer’s legal team has responded by saying the lawsuit “is another attempt to harass and extort Mr. Bauer.”
His attorneys are fighting back, saying he had a single, consensual encounter with the Arizona woman in December 2020, when he said the condom broke during sex. After that encounter, the woman claimed she was pregnant and demanded $1.6 million to terminate her pregnancy, according to Bauer’s countersuit against the woman. His attorneys stated in court documents that Bauer made an audio recording of this demand.
Bauer declined to pay this demand and told her the decision whether to have the child was her own and that he would support her decision, including paying any medical expenses or child support required by law, according to his filing from April.
He ended up paying $8,761 for the expenses related to her “alleged pregnancy and its subsequent termination,” according to his countersuit.
“Based on (the woman’s) demand letter and failure to provide any medical records to substantiate her pregnancy or termination thereof, Mr. Bauer now believes that (the woman) fabricated her pregnancy to try to extort him for money,” his countersuit states.
The woman filed an amended complaint Tuesday that said she decided not to terminate the pregnancy but had a miscarriage in April 2021.
His countersuit states he met the woman via Instagram, much like how he met a woman from San Diego in 2021 who then made similar allegations against him in court in late June 2021. That case was the first to go public with such allegations against him and led to an investigation by MLB and police in Pasadena, California.
Bauer was never arrested or charged in any of the cases. But after the San Diego woman came forward, two other women from Ohio made similar accusations against him in the Washington Post.”
Mets signed Harrison Bader to a one-year deal. Braves and Sale redid his contract. Fan Nation says the Dodgers still interested in both Pham and Hernandez. Teoscar, not Kike.
“Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.”
if the dodgers sign hernandez ( not kiki) , michael busch is gone ! but where? it would have to be al deal for a starter wouldn’t you think? he doesn’t deserve the minors again so where? hopefully not to cleveland in a deal for shane bieber! busch , cartaya, and gavin stone for cease? why not says who?
I don’t see it that way. Kike is not an everyday player. My guess is that Dodger brass is hoping Vargas steps into Kike’s role this spring and Busch is able to successfully earn a role in LF.
Did you miss the parens?
I did 🙁
Busch won’t play left every day. Vargas has a much better shot at that job simply because he hit’s RH. Unless Busch can show he can hit lefties consistently, and I doubt he gets the chance, he is not going to be playing left field.
I’m sure I’ve missed this, but isn’t LF projected to be a platoon with Chris Taylor?
Isn’t Taylor a RHH? Or is the theory that against LHP Taylor will move to CF?
Again, I’m sure I missed this.
I just presumed Vargas would play 2B against lefties with Mookie moving to RF and Heyward to the bench.
Doc has said the plan is for Mookie to mostly play 2B, but that is not etched in stone.
CT3 is much more useful all over the diamond.
I think Magrot will spell Outman in CF, which is why I am having to enter the Federal Witness Protection Program. I have received threats on my life…
I hope Rojas doesn’t play much–because that means Lux is doing fine. If Lux is solid, Rojas might be a good late-inning defensive replacement for Max
None of the following is likely to happen, but it’s fun to speculate
—Stone + Busch + Grove to the Guardians for Clase and Beiber.
Dodgers would get a top-tier closer and a top-tier reclamation project for Prior. (Beiber is to the Dodgers as Sale is to the Braves.) I don’t know if the Guardians need a catcher, but Yenier Fernandez profiles as a likely backup.
–Frasso + Vargas + Kendall Williams + Gauthier or Yeiner Fernandez to the Marlins for Jesus Luzardo and window-dressing.
Dodgers get a rising lefty with ace potential and 3 years of control. The price is a very promising pitcher in Frasso, a future back-end guy in Williams, an on-base machine in Gauthier and the as-yet unfulfilled promise of Vargas. (This offer might be thin for The Jesus Lizard, but perhaps Vargas’s Cuban roots will appeal to Miami.)
With both Busch and Vargas gone, LF could be covered by FA like Pham as well as Taylor. Maybe Pages breaks through. I really like Gauthier but his best position is 2B and that’s Mookie’s job. (He reminds me of McKinstry, who’s had a decent career since the Dodgers dealt him. Both Gauthier and Fernandez could have good UT futures. )
Imagine this six-man rotation:
Yamamoto
Glasnow
Luzardo
Buhler
Miller
Sheehan
With Knack, Yarbrough and recovering ace Beiber in the wings, plus Kershaw coming back after the all-star break. Maybe River Ryan could break through too.
And in ’25, the rotation adds Ohtani.
Way too much to give up.
So interesting you say that Mark, I think it’s not enough. It’s Frasso and a bunch of mediocre prospects for a top pitcher with control.
I think you any package for Luzardo will need to include Sheehan or Miller just to get the Marlins to not hang up.
OK, Michael Busch Splits:
2023:
VS. RHP – 383 PA .308 BA .405 OB% .636 SLG 1.048 OPS 27 HR
VS. LHP – 167 PA .284 BA .383 OB% .411 SLG .795 OPS 2 HR
2022:
VS. RHP – 462 PA .280 BA .370 OB% .532 SLG .902 OPS 23 HR
VS. LHP – 179 PA .258 BA .352 OB% .477 SLG .829 OPS 9 HR
2021:
VS. RHP – 374 PA .288 BA .396 OB% .524 SLG .944 OPS 17 HR
VS. LHP – 121 PA .198 BA .355 OB% .354 SLG .710 OPS 3 HR
Minor League Stats:
1640 PA .283 BA .390 OB% .529 SLG .919 OPS
While his splits are not as extreme as Outman, like Outman his power plays way up against RHP and he a “borderline platoon player.”
Thanks. Good info.
If AF truly… and I mean TRULY believes Lux is a SS, he should trade Rojas. He could do what he did with Bryan Hudson (I’ll discuss that tomorrow). He can do it in Spring Training as well.
Then, this is likely the lineup the Dodgers could start with at the beginning of the season:
1. Smith
2. Barnes or Feduccia
3. Freeman
4. Betts
5. Lux
6. Muncy
7. Busch
9. Vargas
10. Outman
11. Margot
12. Heyward
13. Taylor
That leaves Kiki out in the cold, but oh well!
By the trade deadline, it will be apparent what (if anything) needs to be done.
Busch can spell Muncy and Freeman (keep Freddie and Max fresh) and get some time in LF and PH. Maybe he DH’s early in the season until Shohei can hit.
Vargas gets to show what he’s got in LF and CT3 fills in at SS and platoons in RF with Heyward.
Slow down and let the game come to us. Let’s see whjatr we have at the Deadline. BTW, I want to clinch as late as possible.
Dynasty’s are built by using Home Grown Players with a mix of Free Agents and Trades. Have you actually watched how Andrew Friedman does it?
I think they will win the division and it will be later in September than they have in the past. I think the Dbacks are going to be better this year. I think San Diego under Shildt will be better this year he is a manager that stresses fundamentals and that’s what that team needs.
If the front office truly believes in Lux I think he will be limited to begin the season, I think he will not play more than 2 or 3 days in a row. At least early in the season to be sure the knee is healthy. It was almost 2 years before Acuna said he felt normal after tearing his acl.
I think AF and BG are still looking for another starter whether by trade or reclamation project. Pham has really good post season numbers but I don’t think he’s really on the radar right now. Trading Rojas seems like the only way to get Busch and Vargas on the opening day roster. I just hope there are enough at bats for both of them if they’re just going to be used sparingly then trade them.
Wait. Why does anyone think Ohtani won’t be in the lineup on day 1?
He may still be rehabbing his arm. He needs to be able to swing a bat. He can’t right now.