BABIP Expectations

Posted By on January 2, 2024

Let’s talk about BABIP, which is just another statistic. It is not meant to be an “end-all, be-all” analytic. It does, however, give a person a degree of insight into a players’ soul (if you will). Here’s what the MLB Glossary says about BABIP:

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Definition

BABIP measures a player’s batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes not affected by the opposing defense (namely home runs and strikeouts).

For example, a hitter who goes 2-for-5 with a home run and a strikeout would have a .333 BABIP. He’s 1-for-3 on the balls he put in play.

The formula

(H – HR)/(AB – K – HR + SF)

Why it’s useful

BABIP can be used to provide some context when evaluating both pitchers and hitters. The league average BABIP is typically around .300. Pitchers who have allowed a high percentage of hits on balls in play will typically regress to the mean, and vice versa. In other words, over time, they’ll see fewer (or more) balls in play fall for hits, and therefore experience better (or worse) results in terms of run prevention. The same applies for batters who have seen a high or low percentage of their balls in play drop in for hits.

That said, skill can play a role in BABIP, as some pitchers are adept at generating weak contact, while some hitters excel at producing hard-hit balls. For example, Clayton Kershaw finished the 2019 season with a lifetime .270 BABIP allowed, while Mike Trout ended the campaign with a career .348 BABIP.

Players do not have the same BABIP every year. So let us look at the Dodgers’ BABIP last year vs. their career:

While not always true, certain players are due for progression/regression because of a low/high BABIP last season. Fangraphs says this:

“Defense, luck, and talent all feed into the final BABIP number which is useful in different ways for batters and pitchers. For batters, BABIP can be used as an indication about the batter’s overall quality of contact if you have a large enough sample of balls in play. Over three seasons, if a batter has a .345 BABIP, it is probably safe to say that batter is above average in this aspect of the game and is probably making better contact on average than most.

However, changes in BABIP are to be met with caution. If a batter has consistently produced a .310 BABIP and all of a sudden starts a season with a .370 BABIP, you can likely identify this as an instance in which the batter has been lucky unless there has been a significant change in their style of play.

For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.”

–Fangraphs

Of course, the smaller the sampling, the more likely the results are to be skewed. So, who do you think is subject to progression or regression in 2024?

A Little Comedy

Here is a text from my (then 15-year-old) son, who is not 24:

This article has 36 Comments

      1. Seems to be the MLB way. I was reading that the age of consent in the DR is 18. He’s only 22.

        1. And I read somewhere that the girl apparently lied about her age, and the girl’s mother wanted money … ? Another tawdry rabbit hole to go down.

          I think it would be in baseball’s best interest to have resources devoted to teaching young men how to negotiate life at that very young age – not only how they should behave to avoid these situations, including their conduct – on social media and in life, but how to avoid becoming victims themselves and how to avoid potential honey traps. I remember being 22. I was stupid. Now you have a deadly mix of hormones, stupidity and more spending money than you know what to do with.

          At the very least, their agents should have life counselors and financial advisors in place to protect their own investments. Boras is out a whole lotta money now because Urias did a big stupid.

          It’s a pity, because Franco was a star, and was going to be a star for a long, long time, and I thought the Rays made a pretty savvy move to lock him up long term this early in his career. They were going to get the entirety of his peak years at under market value rather than have to trade away another star before he hits free agency because they’re poor. It’s a strategy the Braves have implemented really well, and they have their core locked up for a long time at team friendly deals.

          And, on a related side note, I noticed a comment by yesterday by DNS on Bauer.

          “Many Dodgers fans opposed the Bauer signing.
          And let’s remember: There were four accusers, not just one”

          I know. Many fans (left leaning ones and SJWs) despised Bauer before the Dodgers signed him because he made some political tweets that the political zealots objected to. That was enough. Politics is now religion, and the Molly Knights of the world are fundamentalists. I absolutely guarantee that, if Bauer had pronouns in his bio and had a #BLM hashtag, you and the Knights would be bending over backwards defending him.

          And Blind Joe, I’m not a septuagenarian. I’m Gen X, and I don’t care for the “right wing” label. I do lean conservative, but my antipathy to this Woke SJW nonsense doesn’t make me a knee jerk reactionary. I have life long friends that are proud Democrats and atheists, and they absolutely despise these people – even more than I do beause they they’ve taken over their party.

  3. BABIP is an interesting number. For some players it fluctuates a great deal from year to year. It is positively influenced by running speed and hard contact. That’s why guys like Taylor and Outman who strike out a lot and have low BA as a result have high BAPIP.

    Of the numbers that Mark posted, maybe the most interesting is Max Muncy. He strikes out a lot but still has a relatively low BAPIP. He’s an average baserunner, but I expected that he made hard contact more frequently than the numbers demonstrate. As a left pull-hitter, maybe his career numbers were influenced by the shift before it was banned.

    You can’t defense a hitter like Freddie Freeman – he sprays it everywhere. So his BAPIP is higher.

  5. BABIP is a useful stat, but some of my problems with it stem from some of the assumptions sabre geeks attribute to it.

    For example, it is one of constants that is used in the calculation of FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s a stat that attempts to strip away the influence of the defense behind a pitcher (i.e. – luck) and use only the supposed actions that a pitcher has direct control over: strikeouts, HBP and home runs.

    To create that FIP calculation, BABIP is used as a constant. In this case, a standard BABIP of .300 is used as an anchor. It’s assumed that anything under .300 and the pitcher is the beneficiary of luck, and anything above .300 is bad luck.

    FIP is used to determine WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, at least in the Fangraphs model. WAR is considered the overall – one stat to rule them all – measure of a player’s value.

    My issue with all of this is that it’s assumed that a .300 BABIP is a reliable constant and that a pitcher really has no real ability to control soft contact, which would result in a lower than .300 BABIP. I don’t think that’s true. I think some pitchers absolutely have control over inducing soft contact.

    One example: Clayton Kershaw is probably a first ballot HOFer. He has a career ERA of 2.48, which is fantastic. However, his FIP is 2.82. His xFIP is 3.00! It’s the difference between being in the HOF and not being in the HOF – all based on these assumptions about BABIP and the ability of a pitcher to influence whether a ball is a hard hit line drive or a softly hit out.

    The whole point is to extract those factors that are considered luck, which really boils down to a sample size problem. But these are Kershaw’s career stats. He has consistently, throughout his career, has had a BABIP well below the assumed constant of .300. It’s not luck. It’s his historical norm.

    All of these stats like BABIP and FIP are still useful, but they need to be put in context.

    Many of us are wondering if Outman is going to come back down to Earth this year in a bad way. “His BAPIP last year was .343! That’s totally unsustainable! He’s a 4th outfielder! I told you!”

    Good news! Outman’s BABIP in his last year in AAA was also .343. In fact, he’s had a pretty extraordinarily high BABIP all throughout his minor league career, so there is a precedent for him to continue hitting like he has at the MLB level.

    1. Dodgerpatch

      Isn’t it fair to say that at least BABIP and maybe all of the stats that are being mentioned are predictive stats not result stats?

      If true, this isn’t a “I told you so”thing that I’m asking and you mentioned the other day.

      1. Uh…. yeah, I guess. Interesting question. And yeah, something like FIP is designed to predict the phenomenon of reverting to the norm, but let me ask this question: Is WAR a result stat? I think it is. But WAR, as calculated, relies entirely on FIP, which is based on the .300 BABIP constant, and completely strips out all batted ball contact.

        1. This is the whole thing I’m getting at. Isn’t it better to use result stats in predicting future results than using predictive stats that you basically said start with assumptions to predict future results?

          “My issue with all of this is that it’s assumed that a .300 BABIP is a reliable constant”

          So we start with an assumption and an assumption is not a reliable thing to use to make a prediction, so therefore BABIP stat is not a good stat/reliable stat to use to predict future results. Correct?

          Then we go to this.

          “To create that FIP calculation, BABIP is used as a constant. In this case, a standard BABIP of .300 is used as an anchor. It’s assumed that anything under .300 and the pitcher is the beneficiary of luck, and anything above .300 is bad luck.”

          There’s another assumption and we go to this.

          “FIP is used to determine WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, at least in the Fangraphs model. WAR is considered the overall – one stat to rule them all – measure of a player’s value.”

          So to answer your question to me. Do I think WAR is a result stat? No because it’s based on an assumption to begin with and another assumption too that are in the paragraphs I quoted from you.

          1. By the way, this is going against the positive thing you said about Outman. A good example of me being a fair guy.

            With that said, I agree with what you said about Outman based on other things.

          2. “This is the whole thing I’m getting at. Isn’t it better to use result stats in predicting future results than using predictive stats that you basically said start with assumptions to predict future results?”

            I understand what you’re saying now, and no, it’s not intrinsically better to use result stats to predict future performance.

            All these things are are tools to give a little more insight and perspective into the results based stats.

            I sort of agree with you in the sense that I think the stat nerds tend to fall in love with the modeling that goes along with the sabremetrics and can sometimes forget about the actual performance.

            Hypothetical:

            You’re a GM and have the opportunity to sign a free agent pitcher. He had a career year the prior year, with an ERA of 2.25. However, you also notice that his BABIP was .250 versus a typical .295, his FIP was 3.75, and he had Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith and Willie Randolph playing behind him. Would you hand out a big expensive contract based solely on that performance based stat?

    2. Excellent commentary Dodgerpatch.
      I like to start with ERA/ERA+ and WHIP, before looking at FIP.

  6. If James Outman can cut his strikeouts by 15-20% and hit LHP with better power, he can hit 40 HR.

    Ronald Acuna, Jr. struck out 126 Times in 2022, and his BA was .266 with a .764 OPS .

    Then in 2023, in almost 200 more ABs, he struck out just 84 times, and his BA was .337 with a 1.012 OPS.

    Acuna’s BABIP stayed about the same in 2022 and 2023, but he cut his strikeout percentage from 23.6 to 11.4%.

    The thing is, with Acuna, his splits are not much different. He hits his dominant side pitcher as good or better than his weak side. The same is not true for Outman as he struggles with LHP. I have looked and LH Batters who struggle against LHP do not generally get better. His BA is respectable but he has no power. His OPS against LHP is .664.

    Now, I hope that the Dodgers staff can work with him to improve that because he doesn’t have to be platooned; it will stabilize the OF.

    Baseball Reference projects him at 19 HR, .258 BA and .800 OPS.
    Fangraphs (Steamer) projects him at 19 HR and a .30 BA and a 2.2 WAR

    Of course, I generally do not put much stock in these projections. That’s why they play the games.

  7. MLB.COM 2024 PRE-SEASON POWER RANKINGS:

    1. Braves
    2. Dodgers
    3. Rangers
    4. Orioles
    5. Phillies
    6. Astros
    7. Rays
    8. Yankees
    9. D-backs
    10. Blue Jays
    11. Mariners
    12. Mets
    13. Cubs
    14. Brewers
    15. Reds
    16. Padres
    17. Twins
    18. Cardinals
    19. Red Sox
    20. Tigers
    21. Marlins
    22. Giants
    23. Guardians
    24. Angels
    25. Royals
    26. Pirates
    27. White Sox
    28. Nationals
    29. Rockies
    30. A’s

    1. People forget that the Braves are still stacked top to bottom. Ohtani’s just a DH. The Dodgers still have a pretty weak outfield. They still have question marks with the starting rotation. They have defensive liabilities on the left side of the infield.

      1. Good points. The Braves were the best team in baseball last year and added Sale, Lopez, Bummer and Kelenic with Fried and Morton returning from injury.
        The Dodgers did add Ohtani and he is an upgrade to JD Martinez who was very good last year with a 893 OPS for $10 million. But Ohtani has a career OPS of 922 which is only modestly higher than JDMs performance last year.
        The Dodgers are currently the betting favorites to win the WS at 4:1 compared to 7:1 for Braves. But I put the teams pretty even right now.

  8. Good morning, all. Hope you all had a great day yesterday. I was busy unpacking my stuff from my trip, reading all of my back mail and getting things I needed from the store, I did manage to watch some of the All-MLB team show on MLB.TV. Boring! Ronald Acuna’s red suit with the numbers 44 and 73, referring to his homers and stolen bases, was a little bit much. But Aaron’s widow was a nice touch at the MVP award giveaway. And I learned Aaron’s nickname in the Negro Leagues was Pork Chop. I expect the free agent market will heat up some as we close in on February. I look for the Dodgers to get at least one more starting pitcher. Syndergaard anyone?????

      1. I have heard that the Dodgers talked to Thor last year, and he was eager to come to LA so that Prior and Company would do their magic on him. The Dodgers were thinking, “Like Tyler Anderson – we will teach him how to pitch differently.”

        It turns out that the dumbass thought the Dodgers could help him re-gain his 101 MPH Fastball!

        You can’t fix Stupid!

        1. It was meant tongue in cheek. No way they bring Thor back. Same with Ryu, Hill, Wood or JT. Not happening. I think even Kike would be a huge stretch and then only if they traded Taylor. You do not need two Swiss army knife type players.

  9. A return visit from Kenley Jansen? That should light up the board for the next couple of days!

      1. He’s owed 16 million next year, and a lot of us got a few gray hairs watching him be lights out one night and implode the next. He’s 36, and even during his last couple of years with the Dodgers it was obvious he couldn’t pitch on back to back nights.

        More “insiders” with their speculative hot takes (making stuff up cuz they need content for clicks).

  11. I’ve never been a Taylor fan and as such noticed how often he got base hits on seeing eye ground balls and bloopers. He has always been a lucky babip hitter.

    Some players have good averages with hard hit rates and barrels. They deserve a good babip while soft hitters don’t.

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