Almost Zero! Almost Zip! Almost Nada!
In case you haven’t been paying attention to the Cactus League, the KC Royals have scored 110 Runs and given up 67 Runs. They have a 12-2 record, and if you think Spring Training means something, then march yourself right up to the nearest sports book and bet your life savings on the Royals because they are going to win the World Series. However, if you happen to have a modicum of sanity, then you already know that (especially up until now) Spring Training means very little.
The Dodgers are 7-3-3 and should have a lot worse record than that, but try as they might, they could not lose every game. Notice I did not say that Spring Training does not mean anything. I said that it did not mean much. Case in point: If you think what Clayton Kershaw did yesterday has any connection to the regular season, you are insane! Clinically so!
Right about now, JD Martinez and Chris Taylor are hitting .167 and .143, respectively. What does that mean? Yawn! Brandon Lewis is hitting 1.000 and Hunter Feduccia is hitting .444, and Yusneil Diaz is hitting .400 – It all means nothing. None of them has a chance of making the team! Those of you who are into Fans=asy Baseball are about to go Bat-Shit Crazy!
It’s nice that Miguel Rojas is hitting .368, but if he was hitting .168, he is still the starting SS. It does mean something that James Outman is hitting .389, and even more impressive is that he has only struck out four times in 18 ABs. But what determines if he makes the team is what happens next! Two more weeks… what does he do?
Jason Heyward is hitting .222 after a hot start. Maybe if he doesn’t get another hit in the next two weeks, he will get cut, but absent a total collapse, he is making the team. Bradley Zimmer at .364 is not! This is not a popularity contest. If it were, Eddys Leonard would be on the team with his .353 BA! The Dodgers are VERY deep, but most are not ready THIS year! However, they are coming.
There are about two weeks left in Spring Training, and there are only a few spots left. May the best men win, but it’s not always about the best statistics, and the veterans are always going to be favored. Peralta and Heyward are guaranteed spots. CT3 is guaranteed a spot. All have a history of being pretty good or pretty bad. Peralta is a guy who can get you 25 to 30 HR in 400+ ABs (or not), but $6.8 million is not a lot to pay for that. He will start against RHP and has put up 3+ WAR twice in his career. We know the Jason Heyward story. Essentially, the Cubs are paying Cody Bellinger $40 million while Dodgers are paying Heyward pennies on the dollar. He will get a runway of maybe a couple of months.
Chris Taylor has had two very good years, three mediocre years, and one really bad year (last year). It has been unsaid, but the Dodgers need him to deliver as he did in his best year. He has a little longer runway. Of course, there can always be injuries, but as of right now, the position players who are “LOCKS” to make the roster are:
- Barnes
- Smith
- Freeman
- Vargas
- Rojas
- Muncy
- Peralta
- Taylor
- Heyward
- Betts
- Martinez
That leaves two spots, and there are two players who can fill them: James Outman and Trayce Thompson. That is likely what will happen, but with two weeks to go in Spring Training, anything can happen! At first blush, the outfield seems weak, and it may play out that way. That is why Andy Pages, Jonny DeLuca, and others like Mike Busch, Eddys Leonard, Ryan Ward, Hunter Feduccia, Devin Mann, Drew Avans, Luke Williams, Yonny Hernandez, and Jorbit Vivas are also in play. All of those players have a shot at making The Show sometime this year. (not necessarily for the Dodgers). They could also be trade chips. Trayce Thompson is 1-13 with five strikeouts. He could likely not make the team out of Spring Training. More than any other sport, baseball involves a degree of luck in some pretty wide swatches. One player can drill a 111 MPH line drive right at the second -baseman, while the next guy hits a bloop single to drive in two runs.
The guy who hit the line drive may be the better player, but I have seen situations like this go on for weeks, with one player saying he is “snakebit.” The Baseball Gods can be cruel! What we are seeing right about now is a “process” that Andrew Friedman is orchestrating. The process lasts the rest of Spring Training and two or three months into the season. We all know that the Dodgers are going to make the playoffs, but the Dodgers Brass wants another World Series. At some juncture before the trade deadline, the Dodgers will decide what the team needs and go after it, much like AF went after Manny Machado.
There will be a surprise team or two who are in the playoff hunt and others who have dropped out of contention and are re-building. We can speculate all we want, but the Baseball Gods just laugh their asses off at us mere mortals. Odds are, Andrew Friedman will do something none of us has imagined, and that, my friends, is why he is the best in the business!
Typically the Dodgers have had at least 3 players on the roster that can play shortstop. Will the Dodgers go that route in ‘23? Or will they go with the likes of Thompson and Outman?
Assuming Outman plays near his current level, sending him down to AAA would be a waste. He doesn’t have anything more to prove. And yet, I have to wonder does he become the odd man out if the Dodgers want a third option at shortstop.
They will have options at AA, AAA, like Hernandez, Leonard, et al. I believe that will be the way it plays out… at least in the beginning. Unless Rojas is injured, the Dodgers should be fine with Rojas and Taylor, but an injury to either one could force a trade.
Mark, I know you disagree but Trayce is a lock.
He’s done. Moving on. Any of the young guys are better bets.
Andy “Pahez” Pages got pop.
I’m actually wondering about the 26 man roster. Unless Outman regresses he should make the team. But I won’t be surprised if Hernandez makes the team to provide the extra flexibility in the infield that they’ve had in the past.
It is certainly possible.
Ignore the fact that I like Outman a lot. The question is do you go with homegrown who are ready (Outman) or do you go with past their prime platoon guys or journeymen? Obviously I’m not a decision maker I’m just asking that question and wondering what the decision makers are going to do.
Actually I think Outman is a lock anyways. And as you said MushersPop “sending him down to AAA would be a waste. He doesn’t have anything more to prove.” Yep.
Well, Outman actually has a lot to prove, and he can only do it if given a chance. I think he makes the team too, but if he tanks the last two weeks, that could change the plan.
I think they are still in a win now mode. But I also think Outman and Vargas both make the roster. I also think Thompson is a lock. Simply because he was allowed to go and play for Great Britain in the WBC. If he was a bubble player, he would have stayed in camp to improve his chances. Taylor in effect is the backup infielder. But he will see time in the outfield. Roberts has already said, more than once by the way, that Taylor is going to play 20-25 % of the games at SS. Busch will play every day at AAA. So will Hernandez just to be ready. Most impressive prospect to me so far has been Eddys Leonard. Kid has some skills. Cartaya’s throw to nail the runner in yesterday’s game was impressive. Zimmer, Duggar and Aven’s are insurance at AAA.
Cartaya also overthrew another into outfield. Small sample still.
The tone of today’s Post hints that readers of LADodgertalk are morons.
methinks thou dost protest too much
Five out of four have trouble with math 🙂
Yep, we are all idiots until proven otherwise. I cannot unfortunately count the times I have been totally wrong. But two exe wives are perfect examples of my ineptitude.
The Washington Nationals have signed former Dodger Keibert Ruiz (24) to an 8-year / $50 million guaranteed contract. The contract includes two club options, which if exercised will take him to his age 34 season. Dodgers can trade from position of strength @ catcher & pitcher if needed. Just don’t trade Cataya, Rushing, Stone or Miller. Looks like Washington got the best of the Dodgers in their trade.
As much as I liked Kaybear, he was expendable, and they got Turner and Scherzer for a year and a half and a half year respectively. I would say both teams got what they needed.
Do that trade every day of the week.
3:05 PM ET vs Cubs
SP Hayden Wesneski R
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Noah Syndergaard R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Miguel Rojas R
3B Max Muncy L
LF J. Martinez R
CF James Outman L
1B M. Busch L
RF Andy Pages R
2B Y. Hernandez S
DH Jonny DeLuca R
C P. Mazeika L
Partly-cloudy-day
0% Rain
70° Wind 6 mph Out
JDM is in LF!
We have 2 games today.
Ask, and you shall receive.
The lineup is Andrews’ Forte!
😉
Never thought I would see it. Dont get hurt!
3:05 PM ET vs Giants
SP Dylan Covey R
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Alex Cobb R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
CF J. Heyward L
2B M. Vargas R
SS Chris Taylor R
RF S. Duggar L
DH Ryan Ward L
3B L. Williams R
LF B. Zimmer L
1B Devin Mann R
C D. Freitas R
Partly-cloudy-day
0% Rain
74° Wind 6 mph Out
2 games today
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_D
Yhency Almonte will make his first appearance this spring in Scottsdale vs #Giants
Only one of those games will be televised. Cubs-Dodgers is considered the A game. Belli and Rios revenge tour.
Injuries pilling up all around the spring camps. Yankees have been hit especially hard. Their pitching staff is a shambles. RIP Jesus Alou. Saw him and his brothers play the outfield together when they all were Giants.
Moises the best of the Alous in my book.
Many moons ago I took my eldest son, then about 5 years old. to a game in San Franciso. We had joined my fried John and John’s brother Phil. Some years before that, a teenage Moises and Phil played on a travel team in the Bay Area. Moises actually lived with John’s family that summer.
Anyway, with about a half-hour to gametime, Phil wanted to walk down from our field level seats to say hi to Moises. An officious security guard refused to let him pass. So Phil yells, “MOISES! MOISES!”
And then Moises sees him and climbs into the stands and walks up to chat with his old friend Phil. About 50 kids swarm them, overwhelming the security guard. It was really a delightful scene. Moises gave my little boy a high five.
I don’t have any idea what his father or uncles were like, but Moises? Great guy.
Roberts commented that Bobby Miller will NOT pitch in a spring game this year. They are ramping him up slowly after his workload last season. Urias 2-A. RIP Otis Taylor, Chiefs running back. Passed away at age 80.
We went out and got Thompson and Heyward and by gosh they will be on this team no matter how bad they are and don’t you forget it. In case they get hurt we got Zimmer and Duggar waiting in the wings so as not to lose any production. You can take that to the bank
If they are really that bad, and I do recognize the sarcasm here, they will get DFA’d and the Dodgers will swing a deal at the deadline. Personally I think you are over reacting and Thompson and Heyward are not going to be as bad as you might think. Neither has gotten close to 50 at bats yet. It usually takes that or a little longer to get locked in. Exactly the reason I am not in a panic about any of these guys……YET.
No reason to panic…
But the issue now is who makes the OD lineup.
Outman has thoroughly outplayed Heyward and Thompson. It’s not like he’s a 20-year-old prodigy on a hot streak. He’se 25 and coming off a great season in the minors. He is ready. His time should be now.
Trayce is a career journeyman–age 31, I think– who profiles as a 4th outfielder with -good glove, good speed, some power but too many Ks. Heyward, at 33, is a reclamation project who has shown flashes of his old self. But only flashes. Maybe Trayce will accept an OKC assignment, but Heyward would likely not and see employment elsewhere.
Or the Dodgers could send Outman to ensure he plays every day and blah blah.
He obviously has EARNED the shot.
I like Trayce and think he earns a shot. My solution would be to package him and a pitcher like Grove for an quality UT guy. Or maybe they deal to get an upper-level SS prospect.
The problem isn’t that the OF is weak. The problem is that it’s crowded, and that makes the infield thin,
I am not in the Thompson camp. I am ambivalent about Heyward, but think he deserves a chance.
What we see now may not be what we see in a few months.
Andrew Friedman is not done… hell he’s not even started!
Pure Bliss – Watching two games at a time!
Can’t help but notice, the weapon is closer than the bottle of water.
You can live without water.
It’s always close, except when the grandkids are here. Then it is on top of the bookcase.
Just going by what they done past four or five years and just think hitters can’t flip a magic switch after that long and become good out of no where. I Must admit after Gallo fiasco last year where they kept playing him even though striking out 50% of the time left a sour taste. Outman and even pages who might not quite be ready yet sure couldn’t do any worse only better, I really believe to get over the hump and be title worthy need a good bottom half of order and bench which we been lacking since 2020. Just my take. I lose optimism when I think about who we got so far in those areas but I also agree with Mark that Friedman isn’t done and who we got going in will be different come October
None of us (and no MLB Scout) is perfect. I have unabashedly said that I believe James Outman is a 4th or 5th outfielder. That decision is made as a talent evaluator, and while I am not a professional, I have been right quite a bit. However, if Outman is better than that, then Yippie KayYeah!
He just hit a HR off an AAAA pitcher. Boy, would it make things great if he was in the ROY running.
I am a James Outman fan!
What a lucky guy!
Joey Gallo 199 BA for career. Hard to believe he’s in Steve Balboni territory.
Outman HR.
Against a LHP too.
I see a lot of Will Smith in Outman. One example nobody saw him coming just like Will Smith but I did just like Will Smith. But unfortunately because of the strikeouts I also see Chris Taylor in Outman. BUT if the strikeouts go down then the Chris Taylor in him goes away.
And Roberts pointed it out after he wasted a pitch on a 2-2 count. He was protecting the plate and fouled it off.
Then he took the next one out.
Oh, but it was a Triple A pitcher!
Outman hit about 30 of those last year.
Williams, 3 run, Mann, 2 run and Duggar, 2 run homers against the Giants. They have only 2 hits against the Cubs in that game. Carrol gets an 8 year 100 million plus deal from Az.
Is there such thing as a dedicated baseball fan who doesn’t think their a good evaluator of talent. My talent observing skills say Outman is gonna be pretty good and definitely much better than Thompson or Heyward at this point
Spot on.
I think it should be James Outman and Luke Williams and let Thompson go. I can’t stand his swing and misses and everyone saying just wait. He walks around just like his brother does on a basketball court. With a smug look on his face. Why? Outman because he has power and can start or come off the bench and pinch hit. Why Williams? The dude is a scrapper can play just about anywhere. And he hustles. You want that in a guys on the bench or give a guy a day off. He plays second base or outfield or Muncy needs a day off and Williams will play third base. Versatility is what the Dodgers like. A player playing a lot of positions. Shoot you can even put Williams in left field if Peralta starts off badly. He is basically like a Chris Taylor good at bats and plays hard those two players shall be the players to make the squad. Thompson has not impressed me in spring training and what you get the same player as last year swing and a miss. Trade or release him.
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_DV
Dave Roberts said James Outman is “big league ready”, but also added “how we shake out is a different question.” #Dodgers
It’s an embarrassment if Outman isn’t the CF.
I expected that from Doc. Not a surprise at all to me.
I would be disappointed if after all that talk of giving a runway to these prospects at the AAA level that they decide to start the year with Thompson and Heyward in the outfield and send Outman, Busch back to AAA to start the year. I think Busch’s fate was sealed in that regard when they acquired Peralta but we know who Trayce Thompson is and I think keeping him to start the year and sending Outman back to AAA makes no sense at all.
Pitchers like Pepiot, Grove, Stone and Miller will likely pitch this year as starters simply due to the need for 8 or 9 starters in a typical year. I would also be surprised if Andre Jackson is not part of the bullpen to start the year. The one position group that the Dodgers have not had much success developing in the last seven years are power bullpen arms. They have done a great job of identifying waiver pick ups to fill out a bullpen but with all of the young power pitchers in the organization at all levels – they are not all going to be starters at the ML level. Maybe we will finally see them fill out a bullpen with pitchers they have developed in their farm system. Rolling the dice every year on Jimmy Nelson -Tommy Kahnle- JP Feyereisen- Shelby Miller-Alex Reyes and others with questionable injury history seems an expensive way to do business and has become the rule rather than the exception. I am guessing some of those power arms will eventually be involved in deals to bring back an outfielder or shortstop if needed.
Some quick takeaways from what I saw of yesterdays game: …and I say this as a fan who doesn’t claim to be a great talent evaluator.
– Syndergaard was working on off speed stuff. Hopefully he can adapt and reinvent himself as a pitcher, because his fastball was around 92. A couple Cubs players were able to catch up to a couple of them and launch them over the fence.
– Ferguson looks really good.
– Max is pulling everything. It’s like he’s in a slow pitch softball league.
By now we should be good at translating Dave Roberts cryptic doublespeak. I’ll have a go.
Here’s Roberts talking about Outman:
“Is he big-league ready? I would say he is. How we shake out, that’s a different question. But yeah, he’s doing everything he can do.”
Here’a what Roberts actually is saying:
“He’s trying, but I don’t think he’s big league ready. The organization has a built-in institutional preference for veterans, so it’s going to be Heyward and Trayce, and we just don’t have confidence that going with two rookies on the squad is a good idea. He has options, so he will most likely be in AAA.”