The Player Who Replaces Trea Turner

Posted By on March 10, 2023

The player who I think will replace Trea Turner will be 23 in August. That is Miguel Vargas. Trea Turner was 23 years old in his first full season. Just like Miguel Rojas, Trea was 22 when he had a “cup of coffee” with the Nats (44 PA) and hit .225. The next season he hit .342! Even though he is not as fast as Trea (he’s faster than you think) and plays a different position, Miguel Vargas is the player most likely to replace Trea Turner’s bat in the Dodgers’ lineup. In fact, I think he might replace it… and then some.

I am sure Miguel will start out hitting closer to the bottom of the order rather than the top at the beginning of the season, but he will likely settle into the #2 slot by midseason. Trea Turner hit 21 HR last season and yet struck out 131 times. I personally remember a lot of runners he failed to move by whiffing. I think Miguel Vargas will be close to Trea Turner in Batting Average and Home Runs, he will be a “doubles machine,” as we saw yesterday when he swung the bat for the first time this year, but he will not strike out as much as Trea. He will be a suitable replacement for TT.

I also think that JDM will be a suitable replacement for JT, and it appears that Max Muncy is healthy and returning to his “normal” with what will be with a higher BA due to the absence of the shift. Hopefully, JDM can also “coax” the superstar out of Mookie. The 35 HRs Mookie hit were nice, but I expect more than a .269 BA from him. I he can hit closer to .300 (as superstars are known to do) it will help the team immensely. Freddie Freeman struck out 2 fewer times than Mookie but had 45 more hits.

The top pf the Dodgers’ lineup should be potent:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Freeman 1B
  3. JDM DH
  4. Muncy 3B
  5. Smith C
  6. Vargas 2B
  7. Peralta/Taylor LF
  8. Outman/Heyward/Thompson CF
  9. Rojas SS

I am not worried about LF, as Peralta is back working with RVS (with whom he had his best season), and I think CT3 will rebound. CF is what worries me the most. There does not seem to be a good platoon there. I read comments yesterday about getting rid of Heyward. That would be really dumb after all this work, and of course, it won’t happen, although it could happen if he doesn’t play well. He has made the team, and he deserves that. He is getting a chance. I hope Outman can continue his play, but I have no opinion. I am watching the same as everyone and rooting for the young man.

Andy Pages is 25 pounds lighter and has played some CF, but I don’t think that is his position. He belongs in RF due to his cannon of an arm or LF. He will likely start at OKC or Tulsa but could see the show this year. I am operating under the premise that Outman or Heyward will handle CF this year. I am not high on Thompson (even if it is a feel-good story), but it’s possible that CT3 plays CF with Heyward or Outman and Pages platoons with Peralta. While not a great CF, CT3 can play the position.

Of course, the Wrath of Kahn rained down when I suggested the Gavin Lux could play CF next year. “He’s a horrible Centerfielder!” Of course, he was, because he never played there. They stuck him in the outfield mid-season without any preparation. It’s not like he lacks CF Genes. He just lacks experience. Give him a full Spring Training there, and he might do just fine. Even when he plays 2B, his throws are seldom online, and I am not alone in thinking he cannot play SS at the MLB level. Many other teams think that. One GM allegedly said, “I cannot believe Friedman thinks he can play there (SS).”

… and before someone says something dumb like, “He just has knee surgery and shouldn’t play the outfield” understand that cutting and stopping and starting and pivoting is what is harder on a repaired knee. Running in the outfield is less stressful. I don’t know how well Gavin can play CF… but neither do you! He is a good athlete, so there is a very good chance he can play there; his problems are all of the throwing variety in the infield. It’s something to consider… but it is not etched in stone. However, the complicating factor is that Gavin’s knee surgery was very serious and there was more damage than the AFL. He may not play much next Spring.

What’s Next?

  • We are allegedly going to see some of Dalton Rushing.
  • With all of the Catchers the Dodgers have, it is possible (to me) that Diego Cartaya changes positions. He is very athletic and could handle 3B, 1B, or LF! NO inside information, just an idea.
  • Mike Busch is ready but will likely start the season at OKC
  • Andy Pages will likely play a role with the Dodgers this year.
  • Miguel Rojas is almost giddy about getting hitting instruction from RVS and Company… He has had little of that with the Marlins. He could hit in the .285+ range this year and that would be huge for this team.

Ron Darling on Miguel Vargas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQAcg68h4VI

This article has 75 Comments

  1. OF quality depth is a problem. They might keep Heyward just so they’re not caught with their pants down if Outman can’t handle CF or there’s an injury.

    After Peralta, Taylor, Outman, Heyward, there are NRIs Zimmer and Duggar, prospects Pages & DeLuca, and little else [Busch in LF?].

    And God forbid Betts gets injured.

    1. Do you think that’s why they’re keeping Heyward as opposed to rolling with Outman?

      1. I think they will give Outman a huge chance, but Heyward is essentially free and has worked his ass off so he gets a runway that is longish! Hopefully, they both make it. but there are several players who are also not far off: Pages, Busch, DeLuca, et al.

        1. I think you are right that we are unlikely to release Heyward just because of that lack of depth.

          Curious to see where in the field Busch plays this year.

  2. Other than Mookie outfield quality all around is a huge issue. I think that’s why there’s so much optimism in Outman at least he has a chance of being really good where as we all seen what Thompson, Heyward, Zimmer and Duggar have done in recent years which isn’t good at all. So far seems Taylor is the same strikeout machine he was last year but plays fairly good D in six different spots. Peralta is adequate against righties and that’s it. How can I not be concerned. Just hope pitching is outstanding and some moves are made

    1. Outfield depth worries me. It’s over for Heyward, CT3, Trayce. Outman I’m neutral on as I have not seen enough.

      Muncy is 0-7 when I’ve seen him. Breaking stuff away & outside – not good. He makes it back (and I like him a lot) we’re good.

      JD is key for me. Pitch around Mook & FF and it’s Will and hope for a big year from a rook like Vargas. JD can bomb – best team he’s been with (including a ‘18 Red Sox cheating team). He could thrive here.

      On paper our pitching will win the close ones. In a shoot out the Friars got the big bats. They’ll prolly splash some cash on pitching but, with a healthy Tatis – they look ready for a Big Season.

      1. I tend to agree that JD is a key wildcard. If he produces, the team will be good. If he’s a bomb, then the Dodgers could very well have issues scoring runs.

        We like to talk about the Dodgers depth. “Depth … depth … depth!”

        That applies more to the starting pitching … and more so in previous years.

        Offensive depth is a little thin, I would argue. You have to really count that Mookie, Freddie, and Smith produce at that superstar level or don’t get hurt. Everybody else we’re considering – Max, Vargas, Outman, JDM, etc., have the potential to be big contributors to the offense, but they definitely have something to prove and aren’t sure bets. They are risks.

        Good move to let TT walk, but a lot of things have to fall into place just so for his production to be adequately replaced.

          1. Sure, I guess. But the Dodgers are paying him 10 mil, and Roberts tends to give established vets a long long runway to get on track, which is what he did with Max last year – and it was the right call. Max started doing much better after the ASB.

            Even if JDM underperforms, it’s not as easy as just cutting him and plugging in Busch.

  3. I have been disappointed with Muncy’s play at 3rd. In last Wednesday’s game he made 3 misplays but only 1 was called an error (the others could have been). Then he made a wild throw to first that was erased by the runner trying to go to second but being thrown out. There have been other sloppy plays as well, he just hasn’t been steady.

  4. It totally amazes me how some people can judge how a player is going to do after less than 30 at bats in spring training. Just weird. Roberts said yesterday that Smith is going to be his # 3-hole hitter. That means, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy, JD, and whoever 6-9. Rojas is making great contact this spring and showing some pop. Monday was commenting yesterday about Martinez and noted that JD’s timing is just not there yet. He is getting close. 20 or so more at bats and we should see a lot of improvement. Same with Muncy. Martinez is the only player with more than 20 at bats at 21. Muncy has 17 and he is hitting .353. Heyward has only 18 at bats. He hasn’t looked good the last couple of games, but it sure has not affected his defense. Sorry Cassidy, this early in camp, playing a position full time for the first time in his career, and a new one at that, I do not expect Max to be in midseason form. You guys are way too critical after too short a time.

    1. My guess is against RH they roll out a lineup that looks something like this (at least early on).

      Betts
      Freeman
      Smith
      Muncy
      Martinez
      Peralta
      Vargas
      Outman/Heyward
      Rojas

      1. That looks right to me against righties.
        Peralta should have a platoon partner, probably Taylor if he gets his swing fixed. Not a good spring so far.
        I still think the roster is too heavy in the OF, and the Dodgers should target a quality UT infielder like the O’s Ramon Urias.
        The teams match up well for a trade. O’s need both pitching and OF help, I think.

          2. I know, I still think it is asinine. Go to the comedy channel of you think you are so funny. Patch is a nimnul. na noo na noo.

          4. No Patch, never associate me with drugs of any kind. I do not use them, never have. I only take the meds my doctor gives me, and face to face, I would match any sarcasm you might come up with since I am one of the most sarcastic a-Holes I know. I just do not appreciate it here.

          5. Are you sure about that? Not even a little Angel Dust in your youth? You seem like an Angel Dust kinda guy.

            And what was with that “na noo na noo” crack? I just want to say, unequivocally, that I am not Robin Williams and I have never, no how, no way, been involved in the television show called Mork and Mindy, and I resent the implication that I am in any way associated with that 70s sitcom. Never been.

            … although, I have to admit, I did get a replica pair of those suspenders for Christmas one year.

        3. It’s true, though. Not only that, but I think it’s time to just blow up the team. Trade Kershaw for some prospects. While we’re at it, Friedman should be fired. Same with Roberts.

          I want new ownership!!!

          They’re all Commies!

          2. “Fun has no place on this site and I’m getting sick and tired of all this fun going around here! This is a Dodgers site, not a fun site! If you want fun, go to the fun house, dad nubbit!”

      2. JDM done? Meh. I’m good with .280/30/85. New league & such – may need a turn or two around NL.

        Heyward (“…high & inside hole the size of Lake Superior…” ) is Gallo’s top D replacement. He’s a banjo hitter with a Gold Glove (5?) . Keep him until a rook busts out.

        Bobby Miller sightings?

        1. I did notice that Heyward was getting exposed by high fastballs in the game the other day. If I noticed, you can bet actual scouts have. He started out as a feel good story, but it doesn’t take long for teams to start compiling a dossier on him. I don’t have a high degree of confidence he’s going to be the answer.

          He’s a good defensive outfielder, but at his age, I don’t think he’s really a CF answer as a defensive replacement.

          I dunno, I get why it’s good to but faith in vets, but I would just roll with Outman.

          1. Heyward “…high & inside..” has been the book on him forever. Never put it together.

            Remember when he came up? Bonds comparisons et al. Some guys fix it & the rest….well here we are.

          2. Heyward “…high & inside..” has been the book on him forever. Never put it together.

            Remember when he came up? Bonds comparisons et al. Some guys fix it & the rest….well here we are.

          3. You may be right, but I have heard from a couple of “Scout-Types” that they have Outman figured out! I have no clue. Rojas is a wizard with the glove.

          4. I would like to see you hit a high fastball. I would like to see you try to hit Kersh’s curve. Bellinger continually swung at low and away pitches he couldn’t hit with a telephone pole. All hitters have a weak spot.

          5. Kershaw is a washed up, has been. I could hit his curveball blindfolded.

            Although he’s still better than Koufax ever was. Koufax would barely break a starting five if he played today’s game.

  5. 3:05 PM ET vs Angels

    Clayton Kershaw L
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    LF Chris Taylor R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Martinez R
    2B M. Vargas R
    CF James Outman L
    RF Andy Pages R
    1B Devin Mann R
    C H. Feduccia L

    Partly-cloudy-day
    0% Rain
    73° Wind 4 mph Out

  6. The Athletic‘s Fabian Ardaya reported this update on the 28-year-old following a media scrum with Dave Roberts

    “Almonte hasn’t appeared in a Cactus League game but faced hitters Wednesday for the second time and still is on track to be ready for Opening Day despite his slower progress,” wrote Ardaya.

    “In 2022, Almonte started the season in the minor leagues but was quickly called up to help strengthen LA’s bullpen. He thrived there when healthy and recorded a 1.02 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP in about 33 games for the team.

    Almonte continued to shine when the pressure was on in the postseason. A struggling Dodgers team looking for life in last season’s NLDS inserted Almonte back into their bullpen and he performed above all expectations. The RHP struck out all five of the hitters that stepped up to the plate against him in his first three games of that series. Unfortunately, LA went on to lose that series to the San Diego Padres but Almonte was able to showcase to the front office what he brings to the table”

    1. Almonte lost game 4. He gave up the go ahead and winning runs. He pitched in games 2 and 3 and did not allow a run. But when they needed it most, he gave up the winners.

    2. Hopefully Mark does not have any deposit funds at SVB. Deposits in excess of $250k do not have FDIC insurance.

  9. If Outman can hit LHP, that somewhat solves the platooning problem in the outfield. I’m not high on either Peralta and Hayward. I just don’t like all the question marks. DH, 2B, SS, LF, CF. That’s 5 out of 9 positions that are hitting question marks. What is the chance all those question marks go away or even most of them?

    1. I forgot, Rojas is going to be below average, I can put money on that. And that means the Dodgers might need good hitting from 3 out of 4 of the remaining 4 question marks.

    2. Let’s just call it the way it is: Everyone is a question mark, if you are Eric.

        1. Let’s not forget that Freeman, Betts , and Smith c ould have bad years as well.

        1. 5 out of 4 people struggle with math, and I predicted they would hit less HR than last year.

  14. Okay so if we need outfielders that are better how do we get them you will have to trade players to get better ones. Do you use prospects or do you shop Muncy or Taylor or Smith for better quality players. So if you look at an organization that has talent if the Dodgers are rebuilding. I would trade with Toronto or the Yankees. And here is why. Some say the dodgers could get Donaldson Hicks and a shortstop Knser but they have others players too.. So look at that trade. To get them wouldn’t the dodgers have to give up Muncy a Taylor and I would say Busch. And does that make the dodgers better by adding Hicks in LF Donaldson at third base and kinder at shortstop. I’m not sure but the dodgers do get new players if thats what we all want younger guys. Now Toronto the dodgers could get Chapman. Springer, and the Allstar catcher. For Muncy smith Taylor Busch and Pepiot. Now that I would do. Springer could play centerfield Outman play left field Betts in right field third base Chapman Rojas shortstop Vargas second base freeman at first base and the new catcher you get Kirk. There that would improve the dodgers two teams that possible trades would help both teams. And well you lose guys but if you want better bats there you go.

      1. I was just going with people have said rebuild if they did Yankees or blue jays would be the teams that I would look at for trades for good player swaps. Just chatting didn’t say go and do it.

    3. Kiner-Falefa. Not an upgrade. No power. Decent glove, but Rojas is better. Donalson is over the hill. Hicks is 33 years old and injury prone. He only hit .216 last year and played in 130 games. Not an upgrade. Bradley, teams have to want to trade. Good teams like the Yankees, trade only for need or to dump someone they do not want. Kiner-Falefa is one of three SS vying for the Yankee job. I do not think any of those guys improve the Dodger offense one bit. And I am telling you again, they are NOT GOING TO MAKE A TRADE DURING SPRING TRAINING. If they trade at all, it will be at the deadline or right before. Peralta, Betts, Heyward, Outman Thompson and Taylor are their outfielders for now. Rojas and Taylor are going to share SS. Muncy will be the man at third. And by the way, he is hitting over ,300 this spring. Looks more like the old Max every day. Trades do not solve everything. You are just going to have to live with that fact. Oh by the way, the Dodgers do not need a catcher. They are loaded at that spot.

  15. I’d rather see players the Dodgers have drafted and developed play in MLB than trade them for other team’s players. What I don’t like is the Dodgers getting past their prime platoon players (Peralta, Heyward), and journeymen (Thompson) and below average hitters (Rojas) through free agency or trades.

    But as it is right now I’d rather the Dodgers stick with what they have right now and find out what they have. And if Rojas, Peralta, Heyward, Thompson suck then there is DeLuca, Pages, Busch, Mann. But Doc won’t go for that he’ll stick with the older guys no matter what and force AF to make a trade or trades at the deadline.

    The right formula is draft and develop players to eventually make it to MLB and plug in the holes with GOOD free agent players. Same thing for the pitching too.

    1. By the way that’s not a shot at AF, he’s been a damn good GM or whatever he’s called.

      1. Oops that was a response for Bradley. I forgot to put his name at the top of the post.

    2. Doc does not make those decisions. The front office decides who to promote to the bigs. And I guarantee you that if Peralta, Thompson and Heyward suck, they damn sure won’t go with DeLuca, Pages, who is at least a year or so away, or Mann. Of those guys you mentioned, Busch is the only one who sees MLB time this year. Jesus Alou passed away today. One time he and his brothers, Felipe and Matty all manned the Giants outfield for a game. RIP. They will use Zimmer or Duggar or even Luke Williams before any of those kids smell the majors.

  16. Batting leaders in spring so far. HR’s Freeman 3 Heyward 2 Betts 2. They have 10 total this spring. RBI’s Freeman 8 Feduccia 7, Outman 5. Vivas 4. BA Feduccia .444 Hernandez .375. Freeman .353 Outman .389. Avans, Leonard, Muncy, Zimmer, Pages, Smith, Vivas and Ward, all above .300. Vargas, Freeman, Feduccia, Muncy, Rojas, and Mann, all have 2 doubles. Outman, Avens and Hernandez have the triples. The team has stolen 8 bases. They have given up 16 bags. They have only given up 4 homers in 12 games.

    1. ‘The LAT just did a profile which, to my mind, upgraded Grove to the ranks of rising pitching stars with Pepiot, Miller and Stone.
      I think in terms of potential, that group is Miller, Stone, Pepiot and Grove. In proximity to ML starts, it Pepiot, Grove, Stone, Miller. That’s how I read the tea leaves.
      And then there’s good old Andre Jackson, delivering 3 solid innings to remind people of his existence.
      I feel for Jackson, who might or might not have a bullpen role. He’s the kind of guy who deserves a shot on a lesser team like the Reds or Orioles. Maybe the same applies to Grove.
      Many teams need pitching. The Dodgers need another good UT guy instead of five outfielders who only play OF.

      1. Hard to get an objective read on Grove. Apparently the Dodgers revamped his arm slot a year or two ago and he’s still adapting and improving. MLB.com says his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s, but Fangraphs results for his ave FB velo last year while pitching for the Dodgers were 94. Seems like his slider ranks highest, and his command is mediocre but improving as he adapts to his new 3/4 arm slot. He still needs a change.

        If he can turn a corner, then that could be potentially exciting to have another major league arm.

        Or trade chips. As you mentioned, Grove or Jackson could start on another team, and the Dodgers could use more depth at SS. Nastrini, Frasso, Bruns and the guy they got from the Padres are still developing, too. It’s a position of strength.

        As much as I’d like to see Urias pitch for the Dodgers for a long time, I think all of these guys make letting him walk the most likely outcome, especially if he’s a Boras client and wants a 300+ deal.

        My darkhorse favorite is Bruns. His stuff is electric for a leftie, but he has no control/command. He’s still a baby, though. Still has a few years to work all that out.

  17. Vivas has been impressing me. Kid got a slick glove, plays all over with some speed and real intense in the box. No wonder he’s on the forty man. Seems to have high baseball IQ to. And what is the deal with Bobby Miller haven’t heard a thing

    1. I’ve been hearing really good things about his bat. We should stick him at SS and see if he can handle it.

  18. We’re gonna need all the good pitching we can get before year is over I sure don’t want to see Jackson or Grove get traded they both have looked pretty sharp. I don’t get to see many minor league games so seeing Cartaya’s first couple times out was wondering what all the hype was about then yesterday seen his bat speed in action and all I could think was Wow. I sure love spring training and seeing what’s in the pipeline

    1. Grove and Pepiot will start 30+ games between them. Jackson could be long reliever. Trading him isn’t a bad idea while he still has value. Two pitch guy.

  19. It would be great if Vargas can replace Trea’s offensive production. If he equals Trea’s numbers from 2022, he’d be ROY.
    Still, it will be a collective effort. It’s amazing the Dodger offense was so potent last season despite horrible production from Belli, Taylor and others. But the idea of “replacing” Trea reminds me a bit of the Moneyball scene in which the old-school scouts are trying to figure out how to replace Jeremy Giambi.
    To replace Trea, it will be Vargas… plus Max… plus Taylor and Peralta and everyone else–while Rojas provides better defense.
    Trea’s performance is replaceable. We’d have a bigger problem if we had lost Mookie, Freddie or Will.

    1. Moneyball was exactly what I was thinking of when I started to read your post. TT will be hard to replace, but you don’t have to replace him all with one player. Vargas, if we’re lucky, might be 80% of TT’s production. The Dodgers can hopefully make up the other 20% elsewhere.

    2. Until Lux went down. Now Rojas has to come close to Lux’s production. If not, we’ll have to make a trade. CT3 at SS is last resort.

Comments are closed.