If Trayce Thompson can produce the same kind of year he did last year, then I’m OK with him, but he can’t! A player has to get about 150-200 ABs before you can really make a determination as to how well they may perform. Small samplings mean very little because of the “luck factor” – both good and bad! Consider this:
- Trayce hit .292 in June (25 PA) with 11 Strikeouts – 44% K-Rate
- Trayce hit.290 in July (72 PA) with 23 Strikeouts – 32% K-Rate Total 97 PA
- Trayce hit .319 in August (55 PA) with 18 Strikeouts – 33% K-Rate Total 152 PA
- Trayce hit .208 in Sept/Oct (87 PA) with 34 Strikeouts – 39% K-Rate Total 239 PA
Those kinds of strikeout rates are unsustainable. For his career, Trayce Thompson is a career .221 hitter with a 31% Strikeout rate. In 2022, he hit .256 (.174 against LHP and .308 against RHP, and he struck out 36%. Let’s look a little deeper. He raised his BA despite striking out more. How? Well, he walked more – his yearly average was about 10%, and he raised it to 12.5%, but that is not enough to explain it. One stat does explain it, however: BAbip (Batting Average on balls in play). The MLB average for BAbip is .296. Trayce Thompson’s career BAbip was .281, but in 2022 Trayce Thompson’s BAbip was .389!
TT, for his career, has hit .210 against LHP and .228 against RHP. How in the hell does he drop to .174 against LHP and rise to .308 against RHP? Pure Blind Luck. I have a theory that is based upon observation, which is, In a small sampling, a player can be very good or very bad based on the “Luck Factor.” Is TT lucky or good? Well, at around the 150 AB point, the wheels fell off, and he reverted back to what he really is: A good defensive player who does not have advanced bat-to-ball skills. To be an MLB player is a great accomplishment in and of itself. Trayce is a great athlete but not a talented hitter. He turns 32 in a few days, and I do not believe he will ever be that. On the right team, Trayce has value as a defensive player and baserunner, but if you think he can continue with a .389 BAbip, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Trayce Thompson cannot make this team at the expense of James Outman. Outman has also been lucky. Very few players have ever done what he has done in the beginning, but is he just lucky, or is he really, really good? If the Dodgers send him back to OKC, we won’t know until they call him back up and he gets those 150 to 200 Plate Appearances! Trayce Thompson cannot make this team at the expense of James Outman! Maybe they both make the team… and I am OK with that! Jason Heyward is making this team, and by 200 PA we will know what he is about.
The Dodgers can’t wait for that to happen and call up James Outman. J-Out (that’s what I am naming him) needs to be the Centerfielder until he owns the spot or proves he can’t. I am on record as saying that I believe he is a 4th or 5th outfielder, but as Eric said yesterday, we never saw Will Smith coming. Oh, we knew that he was a very good catcher, but no one had an idea he would be an All-Star, that he had 30 HR power, and that he might hit .300. I never saw James Outman coming. I said that Joc Pederson was a 4th or 5th outfielder, and while Joc has had his moments, his career BA (.237) is not that of an everyday player. In 2014, Joc hit 33 HR and batted .303 at AAA, but I did not change my belief, as he hit .143 in 38 ABs in his “cup of coffee” in 2014. In 2015, he hit .210 with 26 HR and 170 strikeouts. I still believe he is a platoon player, but I would not mind having him back!
James Outman did well in his “cup of coffee” – Very Well! Now, he is doing very well in this Spring Training. The Dodgers need a CF’er, and James Outman is that! This is not difficult to understand. Is James Outman lucky or good? Or both? He has to make the team and start in CF for us to find out. In 2013, Yasiel Puig had 58 ABs in Spring Training, and he hit .517 with a 1.328 OPS. Yet he was sent down. Why? Character Flaws. The Dodgers knew it and felt he needed to be humbled. James outman has no such flaws. He passes the eye test, and his time is now.
If he is sent back to AAA, I will ask the FBI to investigate this. James Outman is the Dodgers’ Centerfielder. What they do with Thompson and Heyward is not James Outman’s problem. He has earned the position. Now quit talking about it and play ball!
Disclaimer: I like Trayce Thompson. I really do. He is a great teammate, a stand-up, good guy, and a solid citizen. I am respectful of his ability and am not trying to disrespect him. I wish him nothing but the best. This is just an evaluation of his talent.
Dodger News
- Noah Syndergaard seems to have accepted that he is not going to throw 100+ MPH and is morphing into a pitcher. He could be a huge asset at #5… maybe the equal or better of Tyler Anderson.
- Mike Busch is pressing. He can’t make the team anyway if Thompson and Heyward do.
- JD Martinez looked fine in LF. I know that Doc says he is going to DH, but I don’t believe him. In think when a good LH is on the mound, he will play LF with Will Smith DH’ing.
- Sean McLain (at 21) might be the youngest player in MLB Camp, and he is one of those guys you need to watch. He will likely start the season at RC, and while not a prototypical SS, he has a chance to stay as he is a junkyard dog with “quick twitch” athleticism!
- BTW, James Outman had a great AB and then homered again.
- Hunter Feduccia is out of his mind! 5 hits in 10 ABs with 8 RBI!
- Miguel Vargas is settling in nicely!
- Luke William and Steven Dugger went off on their old team yesterday. Neither has a shot of making the team.
- By the way: Dave Roberts is not the decision-maker on whether James Outman makes the team, in case you didn’t know.
- Today, we see Dustin May.
Couple things:
Trayce ideally is a 4th OF. No shame in that.
Outman is a bit older than your normal prospect.
Heyward became a little less useful once we signed Peralta.
Pages and Ramos are coming fast. Both have loud tools.
Busch might be a utility guy even though his defense is suspect.
If Walker Buehler is Stryker, shouldn’t James Outman be the James Hitman?
Good point!
4:05 PM ET vs Reds(away)
SP Dustin May R
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Graham Ashcraft R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
CF J. Heyward L
3B Chris Taylor R
RF S. Duggar L
LF James Outman L
2B M. Busch L
SS Y. Hernandez S
1B Ryan Ward L
DH Jonny DeLuca R
C P. Mazeika L
Clear-day
0% Rain
75° Wind 9 mph R-L
Let’s go Yonny!
{clap clap clapclapclap}
Dodgers clubbed four bombs against the hated ones yesterday but could not solve the Cubbies pitchers at home. They hit some rockets that were caught. Heyward struck out twice against the Giants. He is now hitting under .200 this spring. Trayce Thompson clubbed a bomb off of Adam Wainwright for Britain in their game against the US. They ended up losing 6-2 as Schwarber hit a 3-runs shot. Thompson also had a double and did not strikeout Mookie, Ebel and Smith received cheers from the Chase Field crowd. Must have been a lot of Dodger fans there. When Outman hit his homer, Neverett , called it by saying it is Out Man!
Not specifically Dodger related, but this was actually a great video on the World Baseball Classic
https://youtu.be/IspEWM1aZXo
Good comment yesterday by Duke Not Snider. There are a lot of outfielders on the Dodgers squad right now. Aside from Mookie, no one OF really stands out. If it’s a decision between Trayce and Outman, maybe package Trayce with a pitcher like Grove for some depth at SS.
Grove is not going anywhere and considering how much he is dissed on this site, what makes you think another team would even want Thompson? The thing with Outman is would he be better served playing every day at AAA and being ready or a platoon player in the majors? Heyward and Thompson have filled that role before. And experience counts for a lot. That is why the powers that be make those decisions. As for depth at SS, I watched Williams play there the other day and he was more than competent. He is also hitting this spring with some power too. They have Hernandez and also Eddys Leonard who has impressed this spring. All this talk of needing depth at SS is hooey. And who would they trade for that is an upgrade over what they have? That is the big question. Kiner-Falefa has no power. Good contact hitter, but so is Rojas. Too many guys should guess less and read more. Taylor is going to play short whenever Rojas is not. About 20 to 25 percent of the time according to Roberts. Mookie is going to get some starts at second base. Williams can also play the outfield along with SS and third. There is plenty of versatility on the roster already without making some wacko trade.
I will be shocked if anyone on the Dodgers is traded in the next two weeks. Unless it’s a roster spot, I don’t expect anything.
We could trade Andre Jackson for a bench piece.
Bear
Outman IS ready. They should give him CF EVERYDAY (well, a day off here and there against LHP) to see if he can hit LHP and I think he will enough. He has nothing else to prove in the minors. Do you go with a homegrown player that IS ready or do you go with a past his prime platoon player and/or journeyman? I think the answer to that question is a homegrown player that IS ready.
If Outman is ready, their is room for all 3 of Peralta, Heyward and Thompson. Martinez, Smith, Barnes, Freeman, Vargas, Rojas, Muncy, Betts, Outman, Taylor (10) then add the 3 (13). If a back up infielder is needed, specifically a SS, then it gets complicated. But Outman SHOULD be a lock.
Well that is your opinion. Seems he is not a lock according to Roberts as he has evaded that very question. Outman needs to play every day period. If he is not going to do it in the majors, he will do it at OKC, By the way, his homer the other day was off of a lefty.
I agree he needs to play everyday. But it needs to be in MLB. Otherwise you’re right, he shouldn’t be on the bench for the Dodgers, better off in AAA.
But he IS READY and should get CF EVERYDAY.
Doc? yeah that idiot. Freeman is a damn good GM.
But Doc? lol.
Looks like Craig Stammen’s MLB career is over. He is in the Padres camp on a minor league deal. He suffered a shoulder injury that will most likely require surgery. At age 39, it does not seem like this is something he will pursue.
I may be mistaken but I thought we signed JDM to replace the production of JT. Unfortunately, he’s duplicating Bellinger’s numbers! But it’s early. Hopefully still not saying that by Memorial Day
It is spring training. He has had less than 30 at bats. Way to frippen early to make any judgements on any player.
Historically there have been veterans that have had hot Marches and cold Aprils and cold Marches and hot Aprils. Still, it’s worrisome for players who have underperformed the year prior to look a little overmatched in March.
Only to the untrained eye Bum. Martinez is a notoriously slow starter. So was JT. Come talk to me in July if he is still struggling.
My comment was more prescience than your reply.
has more prescience
Like I care what that word even means. I just call em as I see em.
Outman has options but Heyward is signed to a minor league contract with maybe a predetermined release date if he is not added to the 26. Is he willing to play minor league ball for a month to see how things shake out on the 26?
This WBC game is brutal.
Dodgers laying the lumber on the Reds today. 3 long balls, 5 doubles.
Mark
Thank you for coming around on Outman.
Didnt see game but May’s numbers looked impressive! How did he look? To the trained eye of course!
I was going to respond but you excluded me.
May looked good. But, Reds suck so not a big deal.
Are the clocks running on pitcher/batter? Yet to see anything on screen.
Yes
Simmons why would you say Luke Williams and James Outman shouldn’t be on the team haven’t they had good spring trainings and shown they can be on this team. I haven’t liked Trayce Thompson since we got him. Why should he make the team when Williams can play many positions. TT needs to go to like the Rockies or Royals a team like that then be on the Dodgers. Again if he played for those teams nobody would even know that he plays in the MLB. But because he is in the Dodgers that’s how people know him or threw his brother. When a team plays together for months in spring training how would you feel if when it comes to a decision and a player wasn’t there. And manager goes well Trayce made the team. James you’re going down to AAA. The shock would be like oh my gosh what else do I have to do. I still say Outman and Williams make the two spots left. And Thompson trade him for something. The Dodgers have better guys that have been there.
Who is Simmons?
U mean Snark Simmons? We filtered him!
Timmons was you I was saying. When you said Luke and outman have no chance on making the team. Didn’t Luke Williams make it to the big leagues last year with the giants. So wouldn’t that be a guy that could play anywhere in a field then Trayce who plays outfield when we’re short on infielders. And Williams can play outfield to. That’s what you want off the bench and he has power to hit it out. I’d rather see that than swing and a miss Trayce. He hits one out and everyone thinks he is Eric Davis. One homer out of 50 at bats. No thanks I would take Williams and get something for Thompson. Give me a 4th or 5th outfielder that can be consistent. Someone mentions O’Neil from the cardinals I’d rather have him then Thompson.
Luke Williams made it to the majors in 2021 with the Phillies. Over the last two seasons he has seen action in 137 games with three teams. He has a .240 BA and 2 homers in that span. His big plus is that he can play multiple positions. Third, second, the outfield, and this spring he has seen time at SS. He is not having a great spring at all. He has 4 hits in 24 at bats. 2 of the hits are homers. On the negative side, he is a non-roster invitee. In order for him to make the team, someone has to go from the 40-man roster. Whether you like Thompson or not, he did have his best season as a major leaguer last year. And in fewer games. Yes, he still strikes out too much on a team that has a number of guys who do the same. But Williams is nowhere near the defensive player he is in the outfield, nor does he have Thompson’s power. And sorry, just because you do not care for a player, has no bearing on whether the Dodgers do or not.
The whole article I wrote today was about Outman making the team. I don’t think Williams will make it, but if he does, it might be at Outman’s expense.
William’s making the team would be a shock.
Rather than “lucky or good,” I think the term “streaky” applies to Trayce. He has seemed to be at his best as a Dodger, but that may just be coincidence. Trayce’s spring has certainly improved with the WBC.
Nice to see various Dodgers making an impact for these national teams, including Peralta for Venezuela and young Jose Ramos for Panama.
As for Trayce, I think the best option now may be to package him with a ML-ready pitcher like Jackson in a trade for a rising prospects. In terms of reliability in the OF, I rate the Dodgers as Betts, Peralta, Outman, Trayce, Heyward. I really wish Heyward was showing more–but it’s obvious the Dodgers will stick with him for awhile.
Seems odd that he might get the “runway” that Outman deserves.
Unfortunately, Duke, there has to be a team that wants Thompson and some pitcher for a prospect. Trades like that do not happen in spring or right after spring training. Thompson is a lock to make the roster, or the Dodgers would not have felt comfortable with his playing for team Britain. And I am not sure I would be all that anxious to trade Jackson. I have a feeling that guy is going to get some innings this year with the big club. He has some nasty stuff. Team USA pummeled by Mexico.
The “Runway” guy has a nice ring to it.
And, like Joey G last season, everytime Jason flashes some Gold Glove moves, we’ll gloss over the K’s and ~ .209 BA.
And also like last year, around about August, we’ll be wondering out loud how can we win with bottom third of lineup not producing much.
DeLuca’s HR was nice. Good level swing. Shades of Keekay Hernandez.
I talked about DeLuca for awhile now and the need for a guy that can hit LHP good, as he does, to platoon in LF or a pinch hitter.
On the matter of luck….
Who is luckier than Jason Heyward?
He signed a big contract in his prime and has pretty much failed to deliver since then. Chicago releases him and his buddy Freddie helped grease the skids to LA. The brass loves the idea of paying him the minimum while the Cubs pay the rest. His revamped swing has him roughly at the Mendoza line this Spring. And yet he may push Outman or Trayce off the opening day roster.
OK, who is the luckiest Dodger here?
On the matter of stats…
Yeah, Trayce strikes out a lot.
But in 2022, his OPS was .901–higher than Mookie’s. And his OBP was about .360–also higher than Mookie’s. When he wasn’t striking out, he was hitting the ball hard–and getting his share of walks too.
Meanwhile, Belli, Taylor and Gallo were also striking out a lot too. But their production was much worse. When they weren’t striking out, they weren’t doing much.
Unlucky–or bad?
When you add 100 points to your career average in BAbip, you are damn lucky and should buy lottery tickets out of the Wazoo!
I like the O’Neil kid from the cardinals over Thompson. Plus the cardinals have Jordan Walker coming up at 20 years old and he is a stud so there could be a possibility with the cardinals to get a legit outfielder that can hit left handed pitching.
I have seen every ST game. Observations:
1. The Dodgers have a very good defensive infield. Muncy may be the weakest. This is needed with no more shifts.
2. The starting pitchers and bull pen should be very good.
3. The dodgers are so reluctant to give a starting job to a rookie. Almost makes me mad. Outman has won the CF job. Period. He is very good defensively. He can run. He has a strong arm. I believe he will hit. His swing reminds me of Chase Utley. Short and compact.
4. The dodgers have some very good farm kids. I thought maybe they were short on good position players. This Spring has changed my mind. They have good young position players and good young pitchers. The future looks bright.