Sign Free Agents or Trade

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1. Could the Dodgers trade for Suarez and sign DJLM? I think it would be possible, but is it probable? That would make a more stronger LA lineup. That covers 3B and 2B problems …

   RF Betts
   SS Seager
   2B DJLM
   1B Muncy
   3B Suarez
   CF Bellinger
   LF Pollock
   C Smith

2. Great stuff Jeff. An awful lot to chew on. For years the only way I got any info on prospects was the occasional Baseball America I would buy. Or the Sporting News. Smith’s Baseball which usually comes out in late February was always a great source of info on prospects and the college players. Athlon, since they started publication has improved in that area. I really want to see what Rodriguez has. The couple of video’s I have seen of the kid are impressive. Never got that feeling watching Kendall. I have been dissapointed over the years with some rookies I thought would blossom into something good. Even those who spent some years with the team. I always thought Willie Davis could have been better, Wes Parker too. But guys like Willie Crawford, who I saw hit some monster homers, just never developed into the kind of hitter they were projected to be. Mike Marshall was another one. That guy had some serious power, and yet he never hit as many as we thought he would. Billy Ashley was a monster in spring, and a mouse in the regular season. But one player who really dissapointed me after a good beginning was Greg Brock. I thought he would be the Dodger first baseman for a long time. That idea died pretty fast. I still have faith that Lux will be a lot better than he showed in 2020, and even better than his short stint in 2019. He just has some great tools. I think they should part with some of those prospects who have little if no shot at making the roster, and I would even put Reks and Raley on that list. Although I think they have little trade value due to their ages, 27 and 26. I see Beaty, who was so clutch in 19 as a trade candidate too. He deserves the same kind of shot they gave Garlick when they traded him to the Phillies last year. I would target Suarez if they think they will not resign JT< which as each week passes I see less and less likely. But make it a multiplayer trade and try to pry Castillo from them too. Even if it is a 5-2 trade, it would be worth it. Although I would love to see DJLM in a Dodger uni, I think the desire he has for a 5 year deal knocks LA out of the bidding. I had to go to the office of my friends lawyer who is handling his estate today to drop off some papers. I missed the curb, which was filled with water, snow and ice and took a dive. His my right elbow, which is arthritic anyway, and boy that sucker has hurt all evening. Nothing broke in there, but I caught it in just the right spot. Can anyone say Klutz?

   1. Sounds bad, I sliced off the tip of my best finger and 1/3 of the finger nail slicing potatoes with a mandolin the day before yesterday. I’m on the IL with you.

      1. Ouch. Arthritis is a mean bitch I can tell you that. But I’ll live. As long as it does not affect my typing, I am ok. I have to go to the VA in Colorado Springs today. Pre-op evaluation for my laser surgery on my eyes.

      2. I did the same thing making potato gratin for Thanksgiving last month. It’s finally back to normal. Now I use the potato gripper that comes with the mandolin.

         Sorry to hear about the spill, Bear.

         1. I did the last two potatoes without the gripper, left handed. I switch to the gripper about 2/3 way through. I’ve had the mandolin for at least 15 years, so hopefully I’ll only lose one or two more tips before I die.

3. Great coverage of the recent drafts.

   The state of the Dodger farm system is the result of winning 8 division titles in a row and playing deep into the post-season. I still believe they are TOP 10, if only for the depth, however, this is the most difficult year to rank farm systems because we did not see the progress.

   Also, we never know who will just put it all together as Will Smith did. It now appears that Will is bordering on stardom, but not even Marty Lamb, the scout who signed him, predicted that. Will Smith himself said he had issues.

   “I just had to break some bad habits,” Smith said. “I had to learn how to time the fastball better, not miss it when I got a chance. I’d had some highs and lows, and the lows were lasting too long. But I still felt like I was a good hitter, with a good feel for the strike zone.”

   Smith said he heard he might go in the “10th to the 20th round” when the year started, then the fifth to 10th, then second to third, and finally better than that. They call it “draft helium.” Sometimes it’s not to be trusted. Sometimes it finds a new horizon.

   No one thought Will Smith would be an All-Star Caliber player – most projected him as a backup. But, he just gets it. I think Mike Bush and Kody Hoese may follow a similar path as Smith. Busch is just a hitter, but he seems committed to improving his defense, so if he is willing he can do it.

   The Dodgers are working Hoese at 3B nd SS – I have not seen it, but have heard that his defense is greatly improving – otherwise, why would they have him at SS? I have heard great things about Busch and Hoese by both players and others close to the game, but have not seen their progress for a year.

   Ruiz was drafted for his defense, but as a teenager, he did exhibit some laziness behind the plate. That rap is hard to ditch. Will Smith figured out that launch angle and swing makeover quickly. Again, I have no idea how Ruiz did last year, but he did hit a HR in his first AB.

   I wish I could be high on Lux – I wasn’t, then was, and now am not again. Hopefully, he is all that. The Dodgers also have several pitchers who are close, but what did last year do for them? It’s the same with every team. Last season had the potential to help or hurt a player…

4. The unknown, how do the Dodgers grade Ruiz, Gray, Hoese, Busch, Lux, et al after watching them at the alternate training site last summer. I would love to see Ruiz share catching duties with Austin Barnes, and in a couple of years Cartaya, so that Smith could move to another position that would keep his bat in the lineup for 150 games a season. If the team can get a top notch third baseman, or second baseman by including Ruiz in a trade package that works as well. There is another catcher in the organization to consider, Hunter Feduccia (23). After being drafted in the 12th round in 2018 he had excellent hitting stats in Rookie Ball and later Great Lakes. After 50 games with the Loons in 2019 he was slashing .288/.399/.457/.856 – moved up to High A was a challenge, but only 22 games. Baseball America scouting report before the 2018 draft had him with the ability to be a well rounded catching prospect with potential to be an average ML catcher. There were reports that Busch looked great last Fall in AZ rookie ball, hitting for average and power, and he had significantly improved his quickness and fielding playing second base. Hoese was considered the best hitter at the alternate site – an interesting report that the Dodgers batting coaches told him not to change anything with his hitting, just go out and do what you do.

5. Sorry to hear about your fall Bear. It seems as we age those things increase in frequency. It’s very frustrating.

   Although our minor league system has been diminished we can feel good with all the prospects that have developed and become Dodgers. If we sign Seager and Bellinger long term then, along with Betts, the Dodgers will have stars or superstars at three of the eight positions. That’s a nice situation to be in. If AF can continue to hit on a FA/trade similar to Taylor or Muncy every 3-5 years that can be huge. It takes a lot of pressure off the front office to hit on the draft each year. And, then the international market can give the team access to some top prospects that wouldn’t be available to the Dodgers in the draft. With the lack of dependability or consistency in relievers I like what the Dodgers did in the 2019 draft. They emphasized college pitchers that can be developed quicker and be used in relief. This helps to minimize the cost risk that can come along FA relievers. Now if they can just get an opportunity to play in 2021.

   I don’t think the different ratings are that important at the moment. With no MiLB last year it’s impossible for evaluators to realistically rate prospects. The Dodgers are strong in the area of player development. Several players may have improved dramatically and there was no one around outside the Dodger organization to observe that improvement. It appears the different ratings aren’t very positive on Hoese either as a hitter or 3B. Yet, Lux raved about Kody when he returned from the alternate sight at the end of the season. So, again, only the Dodgers staff knows what’s what with him. Lux may have been blowing smoke about him. And, the evaluators and scouts haven’t seen him play in over a year which was his first. Hopefully there is MiLB this year so we and the scouts can get a better handle on our prospects.

   1. It was an owie, I will survive. Felt like a real moron.

6. Interesting read. Guess we will all see how AF handles things going forward.

   Read this today. Amazing the team one could put together based on players we lost this year.

   https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseball-lost-a-team-of-legends-this-year/

7. Firstly, thanks to AC and Michael for answering my question yesterday about Lux WS Ring, and the Rox willingness to trade Arenado.

   Secondly, Jeff – this really is yet another excellent piece – at a very opportune time, just as we are all contemplating Trades following the Padre’s shopping spree.
   It’s puts into perspective exactly where we stand with what we can offer in the way of trades.

   Possibly we are not as Prospect Rich as we imagined? Maybe we might need to trade one of our stars to get another, much as we did with Verdugo to get Betts. That hurt at the time, but look at the result!

   Maybe the bigger question that this Prospect assessment asks, is whether this moment (now) is when we need to push the chips in as possibly we havnt got the Seagars, Belingers, Smiths, Beuhlers, Jocs, Julie’s or Verdugos in the system coming through, and need to supplement our existing Roster with some quality MLB players by way of Trade?

   Maybe this next couple of years is our window of opportunity?
   Add Bauer at purely a financial cost, and Bauer, Beuhler, Kershaw, Price, May, Urias & Gonsolin gives us plenty of Post Season options, and we need them for sure against the Padres and Braves.

   Maybe we should serious consider kicking the tires on Arenado – like Michael said – he is holding all the cards and the Rox just got further away from contention with the Padres moves. The time might be right to do a deal and it would solve two problems, 3B and a RH Thumper (who provides Gold Glove Defence).

   Bauer and Arenado would be “being pigs” to quote AF, and maybe it’s time to feed at the trough, or rather it’s suddenly become rather more urgent.

   Like I said immediately after the WS win, good teams always strengthen from a position of strength.

   I know Michael and B&P have similar thoughts.
   Might be the right time to get creative, something AF is excellent at.

8. What did we get in cleavenger? The Phillies trade one lefty to get another. Apparently they rated Alvarado ahead of clevenger (spelling) did we get someone for organizational depth? What is your take on the trade Jeff?

   1. His scouting report looks very similar to Caleb Ferguson’s when he was still a prospect. Mid-90’s fastball with developing breaking pitch. We can only hope.

      1. I know absolutely nothing about Garrett Cleavenger. He was never on my radar. I have no positive or negative feel for him. This is one you need to trust your scouting department. But IMO there are worlds of difference between Caleb Ferguson and Garrett Cleavenger. As far as the trade, I am happy that Dillon Paulson is going to be able to showcase his ability more with Tampa Bay.

         I first started following Caleb as a 2014 draft pick (38th round) out of high school who needed TJ surgery his senior year. I did not think he would sign. The year before, two more heralded top HS arms had TJ surgery in their senior season. Lucas Giolito was still drafted in the 1st round by the Nationals (and signed), and Jordan Sheffield, who was drafted in the 13th round by Boston, but decided to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. So why would I think a 38th rounder recovering from TJ surgery would sign? But he did, and I was hooked.

         He did nothing his first year (2015 except get back in playing shape). In his 2nd season, on July 19, 2016, just after his 19th birthday, Caleb was promoted to Great Lakes, full season A Ball. He had a devastating curve ball, and could push his average fastball to mid-90’s reaching upper 90’s on multiple occasions. In 2016, his command after one year of TJ rehab, was outstanding. 63 strikeouts to 5 walks. He lost some of that command in 2017, but still had a sub 3.00 ERA in the California League after 122.1 IP, and was a California League All-Star, mid-season and postseason.

         He went from High A in 2017, reaching MLB in 2018. He struggled as a starter, but as a reliever, he found his command. In 38.1 relief innings, Caleb had 47 strikeouts to 6 walks. He lost command of that curve in 2019, and hung way too many. He went from his curve to a slider as his secondary pitch in 2020. Before his injury, Caleb had 27 K’s and 3 BB’s in 18.2 IP. He was arguably the best reliever the Dodgers had. In 2020, Ferguson made the switch to the slider exclusively and threw 80% fastball and 20% slider. He averages 95.6 on his fastball and 86.7 on his slider.

         Cleavenger has never had Ferguson’s command. He does have a good K rate, but he has never shown that he can stay away from walks. Ferguson was primarily a starting pitcher in MiLB, while Cleavenger has never started a professional or collegiate game. Cleavenger has never pitched above AA except for the 10 pitches he threw last year in his MLB debut. You cannot draw anything from 10 pitches. Cleavenger is 2 years 2 months older than Ferguson.

         Cleavenger is LH, throws mid-90’s and has a good curve. But he does not have the command of Ferguson. Sometimes something clicks for these guys, and they come out of nowhere. I do not see him making the 26 man at anytime in 2021, but stranger things have happened. If he does, they have uncovered a gem. If he does not, they have organizational depth. He will probably start out at OKC, and I watch a lot of OKC games, so I look forward to seeing him pitch. He throws hard, and if he can get command of his curve and slider…

   2. When Cleavinger played in the Az Instructional League a few winters ago, our now assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness was his pitching coach there. So I’m guessing that there was a reason that AF went after him. McGuiness probably saw something he liked and something he thought could be further developed.

9. Not to overstate the obvious, but I do not believe you evaluate Gavin Lux on 2020, nor do I think you can place value on prospects no one has seen on the field in a year.

   The discussion came up on Russo’s show on MLB radio the other day and he pretty much shut down the whole prospect part of the discussion as to what went back to Tampa Bay as part of the Blake Snell deal. Pretty much no one has seen any of the prospects play in a year so how do you evaluate how valuable they are, he was quick to point out.

   Players rise and fall, often based on what they do in the summer or winter ball. We simply do not know. Sometimes players on the rise, highly rated, take a massive step back and eventually fall off the radar. I always had a chance to see Dodger prospects when Rancho played in Lancaster several times each year. You could get a pretty good idea of who was an up and coming player, who could become a future star (Seager, Bellinger, Urias etc.). Who was borderline, good, but maybe not quite at the same level. Who was just taking a roster spot. I will miss being able to see those players, always looked forward to it.

   Didn’t have that opportunity last summer, so I’m honestly not sure how I would evaluate the prospects who are mentioned here. I’m not sure how good Hoese or Busch are — but I have seen Gray, Lux and Ruiz. Liked all three.

   I’ve read the same scouting reports most of you have, of course, but that’s kind of dated information at this point.

   Moving along.

   Trevor Bauer is an interesting potential Dodger, although at this point I’m not taking the pursuit seriously. He’s somewhat different. Would he actually fit into the Dodger approach and team? Maybe a top flight back end reliever would make more sense. Still think the Dodgers should have pursued Snell. If Friedman had made that deal, would anybody be talking about the Padres now? Then like Clevinger, he could get injured and all the joy would fade away. Still, he sure looked like a difference maker.

   Oh well, water beneath the bridge.

   The Dodgers have given off so many mixed messages, hard to know where they stand. We need to save money where we can or the pigs comment. Or Roberts change is a good thing.

   As to making the big trade? Maybe. The Dodgers certainly have the prospects to do it. Maybe it’s a deal with the Reds. Probably not the Rockies. That just wouldn’t sit well in Colorado. Maybe there is another more under the radar deal to be had. Then again, the Dodgers are pretty loaded. Just re-sign Turner, add a couple of relievers more and move forward.

   1. I do not have the baseball knowledge of most posters on this site. But I pretty much agree with sbuffalo’s last sentence. The Dodgers are loaded. Why look to make major changes when you’ve already have a great team. But please make sure that Seager remains with the team for a long while.

      1. They have a deep team with a bunch of holes at this point. Back end of the pen, 3rd and 2nd base, and RH power. All that needs to be addressed.

         1. I agree with this.

            The bullpen is a huge concern and even flirting the idea of Jansen and Kelly being used in any type of high leverage situation on cements that fact.

            3rd is abviously unknown and 2nd as well although CT3 COULD play there if needed. Not ideal of course.

            RH power is also a concern with no solution as of today although I would think that is on the to-do list.

            The fact is the Padres were a good team by playoff time. They took LA to the door of the woodshed WITHOUT their, arguably, two best pitchers. Adding Darvish and Snell is a gigantic move that should put fear into LA and the fans. To poo-poo those moves and talk them down is foolish.

            Thinking that LA will remain on top because they are LA is like saying Rome will always be on top…..well because theyre Rome.

            The LA rotation in nowhere near as good as the Padres now, even if Price returns.
            Lineup…not sure. Hosmer is not a great hitter and who knows what Myers does again.

            With Seager, I am 50-50 on him.
            He obviously has a great year last year. His D is good. Not great. Taylor is better I think honestly. I also am just not a fan of the constant “he will NOT move to 3rd”. Not sure I like that attitude. I understand SS is a premium position and their is pride there. Even Arod in his prime moved to accommodate a far lesser player in Jeter.
            I would Lindor in a second over Seager

            As I said, I think the Pads rotation is stellar right now and not for a one year, push all your chips in thing. They get Clevinger back next year as well. Scary good.

            Hopefully, Friedman can upgrade but that Padre team is gonna be hungry

      2. I agree with you hodges54. After reading AC’s excellent last two articles, I am very very interested to see what minor league players can do next season. I have high hopes for several especially some of the pitchers. But, also believe our team is solid.

         Sorry about your fall, Bear and hope it gets well soon. Aging is crummy sometimes, but beats the alternative.

10. They posted Bauer’s contract desires on Yahoo news today. He wants a 200 mil deal with an average AAV of 36 mil, the same as Cole gets. I think he is dreaming. Or delusional. As for the farm, there are a couple of ways to build it up, one is tank and finish dead last in baseball, but the fans would never stand for that, another is trade established stars, like the Rays and Cubbies for prospects. AF has done that a couple of times, and the other is to draft wisely grasshopper. Since Friedman arrived as Jeff stated, they have veered away from drafting HS players. But AF has also drafted a few that were damaged goods IE, Buehler. Maybe it is time to thin out the crop and get some serious fire power in the lineup. I at this point do not care if Turner returns. This has dragged out long enough. He is 36, on wobbly knees, with diminishing fielding skills. Time to move on. Younger and faster, maybe someone with more power. Suarez and Arenado both fill that bill. I would love LeMahieu on the team, but he is also in his 30’s and I do not see a long term, 5 year deal like he desires as something AF would go for. The only way they do that is if Ownership says do it. Get a solid back of the pen reliever, one of the better ones, not some slug, and get Jansen some serious help. He cannot carry the load by himself. Commit to Urias as a starter. I know he was lights out in relief, but this year was a total anomaly. With a 162 game schedule, you need guys you can trust, and he showed me enough to be considered part of the rotation. Decide before next year if you are going to extend Kershaw for a season or two. None of this waiting around to see what happens. He deserves to end his career as a Dodger if that is what he wants, but not at 30 mil plus a year. Weed out some of the left handed bats. They are pretty much interchangeable parts. And none makes me shake in my boots. Reks, Raley, Beaty, all the same guy. Put Taylor in the infield as a super sub where he belongs. Set the rotation as Kersh, Buehler, Price, May and Urias. Gonsolin would be the swing man, with White, Nelson, and Gray all lined up behind them. If you need a starter, sign one who is a free agent, or make a trade at the deadline. Hell, unload Kersh if you are not going to extend him. Just do something. The waiting is driving me NUTS! LOL.

11. First off, great realistic analysis of the state of the Dodgers farm system right now Jeff. As always, you’re very good at looking into things thoroughly and fairly. While I agree with most of it, I would like to point out that some prospects that were never highly touted have become great players. Brian Giles and Magglio Ordonez come to mind just off the top of my head, so I’m sure there have been many others. I don’t think either of those players were ever ranked in the top 50, but both have multiple all star and MVP top 10 finishes. So, there is hope for the Cody Hoese’s and Michael Busch’s of the world.

    I freaked out a couple of days ago realizing that the Dodger’s 40 man currently sits at 39, with no RH every day player and no high leverage reliever signed to date unless you count a recovering Knebel.

    I down played the Padres recent acquisitions. There’s as good a chance that Price is better than Darvish as there is the other way around. There’s as good a chance that Snell turns into Drew Smyly as there is that he has another Cy Young year. There’s as good a change that Kim becomes Kike than he becomes an every day second baseman. But, there’s no denying that they are improved and that they are trying.

    I think the school of thought that the Dodgers should just sign JT and a couple of relievers and move on is overly simplistic and comes from the heart wanting JT to be the same JT that he’s been over the last several years. But, I don’t think that makes the team better. I think a trade or trades needs to occur to improve the team and not let the Padres catch us or upset us like the Nats did in ’19.

    I’m questioning the recent moves that adding two relievers to the 40 man that may not pitch or be useful in 2020. While there are a lot of quality relievers available, the left handed variety is not up to par, but was a clear need for depth so, I guess this makes sense for the Cleavinger signing. But, he hardly screams key piece. But does Kahnle make any sense when you also have Morrow and Nelson? Maybe Morrow and Nelson are both expected to be on the 40 man as soon as the Dodgers can put Ferguson and Kahnle on the 60 day.

    With all those additions, it seems like we can’t possibly add more relievers and a RH every day bat and a RH bench piece. Something has to give. Too many pitchers and too many LH position players and very little has happened overall across the league this offseason except for the Padres of course.

    I’m looking forward to see what the new year will bring. It certainly won’t be JT and a couple of relievers. Look for bigger changes.

    1. Kahnle will not likely pitch in 2021.

       I think Morrow and Nelson were signed to minor league deals, so there is no reason for them to be on the MLB 40-Man until they make the team. Both are long-shots.

       I think that Knebel is the real deal.

       The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who could prove to be more useful in 2021 than any free agent or trade. Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, even JoJo Gray, could prove to be valuable in the pen. I am not saying all will, but one or two might be ready

       1. I’m not sure what to make about all those pitchers being more useful than any free agent or trade. That is a tall boast. I agree about Kahnle and Knebel, but also have at least some doubt about the latter.

          Morrow had two years off! Fully recovered, done or somewhere in between. I feel like the time off allowed him to fully heal, but he could be done. Jimmy Nelson? See Brandon Morrow. If there’s anything left, they will be healed enough to pitch this year. If not, their careers are over.

          If they don’t end up with a healthy closer from the get go with a field this deep in that category, it will be a total failure. I’m talking about Hendricks, Hand, Rosenthal, Colome, Treinen, Yates.

       2. You cannot possibly believe that any of those prospects are better relievers than Hendriks, Hand, Yates, Rosenthal, Treinen, Colome, Melancon. Less expensive but not better.

          How much longer are we going to wait for Dennis Santana to come around? I am surprised you did not mention Sborz. The only professional competitive year Michael Grove had was 2019 at Rancho. He went 0-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 51.2 IP, and a ground out/air out ratio of .48. 7 HRs in 51.2 IP. He started 21 games and threw 51.2 innings. How does that translate to better than any of the relievers still on the market? How does that translate into any consideration for a ML role anytime this year? Edwin Uceta is going to start this year, hopefully at AAA. He is not going to relieve. I think the same for Mitch White. White is ahead of Uceta, so he is going to get the call before Uceta. Although White would be called if a need arose. For me, he is a better trade candidate.

          I will grant you that Ryan Pepiot may have a shot, but he has not pitched above low A Ball. Gerardo Carrillo should complete his conversion to relief this year, starting at AA. If he does well, he could get a late call, but the Dodgers have so many ML relievers on their MiLB rosters that it will be difficult for Carrillo or Pepiot to get a shot this year.

          I do not understand the urgency. Sign Liam Hendriks (or Rosenthal or Yates or Hand). Or two. KJ and Kelly and Knebel are gone after this year. And then let the Carrillo’s and Pepiot’s and Little’s, and all the other 20 some pitching prospects compete for 2022 after another year of development, which they missed last year. They will still have Graterol, VGon, and Kahnle.

          I sometimes get the impression that you do not think that the Dodgers should ever trade or sign a FA. That everyone in their farm system is better than any other player.

    2. Betts hits RH, and he plays every day, but he is the only RH bat that does that right now.

12. Let me add my kudos to the others here for a great and thought provoking article AC.

    You spent some time talking about Busch. How about this for a thought. We are lacking in upper level outfield prospects. Busch is universally considered an excellent hitter but only a fair defender at second. Why not move him to left field? I’m thinking that is an easier position to play adequately than second base is.

    1. I am sure that it is being discussed. I think that Will Rhymes and his minions are looking at whatever way they can to get Busch into the lineup. The Dodgers organization do not have top OF prospects, so perhaps he would be a candidate for LF. He has a 40 grade arm, so LF is the only OF spot he could conceivably play at the ML level.

13. Jeff, this post was absolutely great. So much information here and great points on scouting and evaluation of prospects. This is what I was looking for this winter and your provided it in one package. This is cut and paste for future reference. Thanks for all this research.
    Here are some random thoughts related to your article:
    * For a few years the Padres were either at the top or near the top as an organization for prospects. Now we see how that has translated into obtaining MLB talent. And they still have top prospects. I can’t stand the bastards but I’ll give the GM credit for making them better.
    * Half the scouts I know have been cut loose. Without them and MiLB there’s no way to access talent levels for less experienced players. It’s a guess.
    * Jeff, you were spot on with “Scouting grades do not measure heart or desire or confidence or work ethic”. A kid’s “make up” has nothing to do with Revlon products and everything to do with a scout’s ability to dig up the intangibles.
    * A few great players come to mind that didn’t fit the mold that scouts today would look for. They wouldn’t be sighed today, especially with the reduced number of rounds coming up. How about Jaime Moyer, Hunter Pence who was athletic with extremely unorthodox actions, small guys like Freddie Patak, David Ekstein and even Pete Rose. It’s an inexact science and finding those “missing tools” is what scouts dig for.
    * An organization just can’t miss on first round picks.
    * It’s a problem when young prospects don’t have a position. It’s not a good thing when a kid grades out early as a DH or forced to hide at first base.
    * From Jeff’s article and my eyes, I conclude that the Dodgers value bats, especially left handed bats, over defense for the most part. I think they think the Player Development folks can make a hitter an adequate defended, somewhere.
    * So what’s the future of Luke Raley, Zach Reks, DJ Peters, Andy Pages, Jake Vogel, and Cody Thomas? If there is any value here it’s time to move it, especially the 25 plus guys. There’s no room at the inn.
    * Trade Lux or give him the shot as the everyday 2nd baseman. I keep hearing and reading about his great tools, but so far I don’t see them. As I’ve said before, I don’t love his actions defensively and I don’t love his body language. I’ve been wrong before.
    Again, great post Jeff!

14. Nice analysis, AC. But here’s my simple opinion: Yes, it is more likely that a top 10 pick pans out to a become a top quality prospect and eventually MLB player. Yes, we never have top 10 picks (rarely even top 20). But there are 30 other rounds and international guys to choose from. We’ve been a top 5 farm this last 7-8 year run, but who among our graduated guys that AC listed are top 10 picks?

    Joc Pederson: 4th round pick I believe
    Corey Seager, the#16 pick in the draft (or there)
    Cody Bellinger, 4th round pick
    Walker Buehler, late 1st (granted he was injured, but we took a chance)
    Will Smith, 30th pick or so
    Alex Verdugo, 2nd round pick
    Gavin Lux, late 1st round pick
    Dustin May, 3rd round pick
    Tony Gonsolin, 9 th round pick
    Julio Urias, int’l free agent
    Caleb Ferguson: 38th round pick
    Austin Barnes (acquired via trade),
    Edwin Rios, I believe 4th
    Matt Beaty. I believe 9th

    Many of these guys became top 100 prospects and weren’t top 5 picks. Sure, that means we have to hit on our lower picks, but we’ve done it before. It’s a bit concerning that the 2017and 2018 drafts were so poor. No wonder we’ve dropped a bit to middle of the pack. I guess we’ll really know where we stand at the end of 2021, assuming that there is a MILB season and guys can be evaluated again.

    1. Actually Joc was an 11th round pick out of high school in 2010. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick out of Stetson in the same draft. The draft is not perfect. Players develop at different rates. Players do not have to be top 100 prospects to be viable ML players, or even All-Stars. Because of where they do draft, it is unlikely that they are going to get a Clayton Kershaw. They were very lucky to get Walker Buehler. Do I see a CY winner in the Dodgers farm system? No. Do I see a MVP in the farm system? No. Does that mean that no current Dodger prospect will win the CY or MVP? Absolutely not!!!! As a for instance, I have no idea how Jimmy Lewis will develop. I have no idea how Andy Pages will develop. But they both could be special.

       I think some get the idea that because I do not think that Kody Hoese or Michael Busch are top 100 prospects, that I do not think they can be ML players. Totally untrue. I especially think that Busch will be a good ML player. Just as Mark hopes he is wrong on Lux, I hope I am wrong on Hoese.

       Right now the Dodgers are somewhere between 11th and 15th farm system, I have high hopes that the 2020 draft will push the Dodgers back into the top 10 at some point. As good as the top draft picks were in 2020, I think that 2019 will have a solid influx of ML talent, even though, they will not be top 100. Besides Hoese and Busch, the team drafted 3B Brandon Lewis, and pitchers Jimmy Lewis, Ryan Pepiot, Jack Little, Aaron Ochsenbein, Braidyn Fink, and Jeff Belge (and others). All have ML potential. Outside of Lewis, all of those pitchers figure to end up in the bullpen (and maybe Lewis as well). Bullpen pitchers do not make top 100 lists, but they do make the rosters.

15. Great Post Jeff.

    The Dodgers could use a couple of regulars under the age of 26 or they are going to get old together as a team down the road. Adding Turner, Arenado, Lindor add to the number of players 29 and older. That said, it is the players that are around the age of 29 that are the most intriguing. Age considerations is one of the reasons I like Gleyber so much.

    I really like the Smith/Barnes catching tandem. Time to trade Ruiz even though he is younger than Barnes.

    I would only sign Turner to a one year contract if he is signed at all.

    Mark has talked a lot about moving Smith to the infield to make room for Ruiz. No one has mentioned about signing Realmuto who can also play first base and pairing hi with Smith who can also play third base. That adds a righty bat to the regular lineup. It would also allow the Dodgers to trade Muncy with Realmuto, Busch, Hoese, Rios, and Bellinger filling innings at first.

    I would trade Muncy, Taylor, and Gray for Gleyber Torres.

    1. RF Betts
       SS Seager
       1B Realmuto
       CF Bellinger
       3B Torres
       2B Lux
       C Smith
       LF Pollock

       1. No Joc?

          Why not sign Ozuna and make him a first baseman and trade for one of the better third basemen? Or better yet, trade for Bryant and Arrenado and make Bryant play first. Muncy and Recks for Bryant, they can play Muncy at 3rd. Gray, Taylor and Raley for Arrenado. Then sign Joc as a returning free agent to platoon with Pollock.

          RF Betts
          SS Seager
          1B Bryant
          CF Bellinger
          3B Arrenado
          2B Lux
          C Smith
          LF Pollock / Pederson

          Maybe Sub McKinstry for Taylor in the trade so he can platoon with Lux.

          1. I don’t want Ozuna. I would trade Muncy for Bryant to add a righty bat but I would prefer to use Muncy to get a younger player.

             My lineup is much younger than yours Penguin.

    2. You might trade Max, CT3, and Gray for Gleyber Torres, but NYY won’t.

       1. C’mon, man! The Yankees need a starting pitcher, why not count on a rookie with no MLB experience? They can platoon Muncy (.4 WAR last year) at 1B with Luke Voit (1.7 WAR last year) who also had reverse splits last year. And Taylor over Torres is a no brainer. Wouldn’t it be something if they played Muncy against lefties and Voit against righties due to the reverse splits? lol

          1. Happy New Year Penguin. You are my favorite poster.

          2. Your reply to AC is another example where you, Penguin, haven’t had the confidence to reply directly to me.

       2. I decided to get that kind of feedback by saying Gray instead of the feedback I would get from saying May instead. I would add a pitcher to the package as well so the Yankees could choose two from May, Gonsolin, or Gray.

          Most people on this site like to throw snow on a trade proposal instead of suggesting tweaks.

       3. Uh, I think I know that Jeff. It’s like making an offer on a house. Too low and you might not get a counter offer, too high and you overpay. Start the conversation.

          1. I have no problem with trade discussions. I think they are fun. I just think you are trying to start the conversation about the wrong guy. NYY has ZERO desire to move Torres. For all of the reasons you want Torres, are the same reasons the Yankees want to hold on to him. He is not even arbitration eligible until next year. I am sure that if you propose a significant overpay of Belli and May, that could get the conversation started. But AF is hanging up. There are some players that just are not available, and Gleyber Torres is one of them.

             Why not start a conversation with ChiSox for Tim Anderson? Or with the Nats for Juan Soto. Or with the Braves for Freddie Freeman. Or the Angels for Mike Trout. They are not going anywhere either.

             Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suarez, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Musgrove. Those are legit targets.

             1. The Yankees have said they would consider trading Voit or Torres for pitching and they have said they don’t want to pay the CBT. That means they won’t go after Bauer. Sounds like they want lower cost rotation additions. They are almost totally righty hitting.

                Muncy has one less year of control than has Torres. Muncy is a free agent in 2024 and Torres is a FA in 2025. Muncy will cost less than Torres through 2024. It sounds like Mark thinks Muncy is a better player than Torres. Bear says Torres can’t play defense.

                The Yankees will want to sign one of the stud shortstops next year and therefore don’t want to sign a shortstop that will still be on the payroll in 2022. That makes Taylor a good bridge to 2022.

                I don’t have too much faith in May but I think the Yankees would want him.
                May, Taylor, Muncy seems to be a conversation starter. I’ll toss in Ruiz.

                Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias plus whatever they wind up with for a fifth is a good rotation.

    3. You lost me after “Great Post, Jeff”

       1. How can I lose anything I never had Mark?

          Sometimes I lose track as to where my original thought was going when I am watching something I am interested in on TV and typing a comment. But still, it is hard to get lost these days when everybody has smart phones.

16. Why can’t Justin become the next David Freeze?

    1. Maybe because of his contract desires.

    2. Because Freese was looking for one year part time roles at the end. JT is looking for a fulltime gig on a three year deal. I doubt that he is getting any traction with that. I can’t blame him. He is looking for that one last contract. Once he gets realistic with his demands, his market will open up, and we will see where the Dodgers stack up with their desire. I am sure they have a number of years and contract ceiling in mind. They are going to let JT evaluate his market and then come back to the Dodgers for a last counteroffer.

17. Good information Jeff.

    Bobby’s post is very telling to me. You don’t need Top 10 picks to find gems. Get the scouting developed, which I thought we had done, get the best teachers into the system, which I’m told we’ve done, and work it. It feels like there’s a sharp bend in our road as not having anyone in the Top 50 hasn’t happened to us in a while. My opinion on Hoese hasn’t changed, 45 on the Scouting Scale sounds right to me. He’s got some growing to do and he’s already 23, 24 in July, so I’m not waiting around for him. Rios is still my pick for third base, and I’m bringing back Turner to share time with him. Wobbly knees? I don’t see it that way. Turner projects well over .800 OPS , with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, a triple, and 3 stolen bases …and that’s with only 426 AB’s. You don’t do that on wobbly knees.

    Prospects – Gray, yes, of course. But he doesn’t look, or grade, like Buehler and Urias did. He also wasn’t drafted by the Dodgers. Beeter and Miller? 55 grades, but each have some holes in their game. Beeter, control, Miller, enough ML pitches to start.

    One of our infield prospects to left sounds fine to me but we don’t need a left fielder yet. Pages looks to be the real thing, Rodriguez could be.

    We don’t need much really. In my bubble Friedman hasn’t done anything yet. But it’s coming.

    I read today….. well here you read it:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/once-you-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-can-you-still-infect-others/

    Still so much we don’t know. But professional sports is powering forward so, hold on to your lap bars, it’s going to be a wild ride.

    1. They have no idea if a vaccinated person can spread the virus.

       Half of what Dr. Fauci told us is false. (maybe not half, but a lot was)

       I would advise you to mask up until 2022.

       No handshakes or hugging. Elbow bumps are OK.

18. Dee Strange Gordon sounds like a superhero. If Dr. Strange and Flash Gordon had a kid? I think that’s possible these days.

19. RIP Dawn Wells

    MaryAnn made me try coconut cream pie for the first time !

20. RF Betts
    SS Seager
    1B Bryant
    RF Bellinger
    C Smith
    3B Ríos
    LF Pollock / Joc
    2B Lux

    1. What happened to Muncy?

       Kris Brant (whom I would not mind having, btw) has never had one year the equal of Muncy’s first two years. Both had off years in 2020, but Bryant was a whole lot worse. Muncy has lots of value.

       1. I agree that Muncy has value, and 2020 should be overlooked (for both Muncy and Bryant). But to say that Bryant has never had a year as good as Muncy’s first two is not right. Muncy had a outstanding 2018, and by the numbers he did have a better year than Bryant’s best year if you only measure batting metrics, which is probably fair for both players. But Bryant has 3 seasons with an OPS north of .900 and 2 other seasons with an OPS between .800 and .900. Max has one year with an OPS north of .900 and one year between .800 and .900. 5 seasons with an OPS north of .800 for Kris vs 2 seasons for Max. On the positive side, Max’s next two years will cost less than Bryant’s next year. So there is plus value in that. Baseball wise, KB is a better ballplayer.

          I agree that the Dodgers should vigorously look at one year of KB in 2021. Rios will still get his fair turns at 3B. KB can play LF and 1B. If AF and the Dodgers FO believe Hoese will be ready in 2022, then one year is all you need. You get the RH bat. If there is the Universal DH, Rios and KB can trade off, and both could spell Muncy at 1B at times.

          1. I was relying on memory, but I just checked and Muncy has been in the NL 3 years while Bryant has 6 years, but look at their averages during their time in the NL:

             Muncy: .888 OPS/ .372 OB%
             Bryant: .889 OPS/.380 OB%

             I would love to have Bryant, but I would not trade Muncy (and 3 more years of control) for 1 year of Chris Bryant.

             1. Agree!!

             2. I think that is cherry-picking a bit, but I agree. I would not trade Muncy straight up for one year of KB either. I like Max, and he does a good job. My only complaint is if he wants to walk instead of drive in runs, get out of the #4 spot. I am sure AF has no problem with it, but it is a personal issue for me, and nobody is calling me to run the team. I prefer the cleanup guy be a run producer.

       2. Looks like Muncy got traded for Bryant.

          1. That’s not very smart.

21. I was hoping the Dodgers would pursue Blake Snell, and they probably did. If AF was in charge of SD, that trade does not get made. AF would never have included Patino in a deal, nor Wilcox. Wilcox had 1st round talent and slipped to the 3rd round, so who knows. Patino is the prize for Tampa Bay. Different philosophies for AF and Preller.

    My number one wish would be Luis Castillo. If they could somehow work out a deal for Castillo and Suarez, that would be a coup. But Castillo alone would make my offseason. Castillo (28) has three years of control. Pitched 70 innings last year, and allowed 5 HRs playing half his games in that bandbox, AKA Great American Ballpark. 89 strikeouts to 24 walks.

    You cannot move players up to a 55 grade after missing a year, just because your scouts and coaches think they had a good year at the secondary site or in the instructional league. Grades are relative. Since nobody played last year, the grades and rankings should stay the same. That does not mean they are meaningless. It just measures no change.

    Will Rhymes, LAD Farm Director, had some very positive things to say about specific ball players. He did single out Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, Kendall Williams, James Outman, and Miguel Vargas. Others singled out Ryan Pepiot. Kyle Glazer, Baseball America, listed Busch as one of his 19 that stood out in the instructional league. Other than Lux, I cannot remember anyone saying anything positive or negative about Hoese. Meaning he is probably developing just fine. I like Michael Busch and prefer him to Kody Hoese as a prospect because of his hit skill. But I do not think he is on a path to being a perennial All Star candidate. He is not a DJLM. He is not Chase Utley. He is not a Robinson Cano. He is not Gleyber Torres. He has a ways to go to show he is better than Gavin Lux. The closest upside comp I can think of is Daniel Murphy. Some have already compared him to Max Muncy. If he turns out to be that level, that is just fine. But let’s at least see what he can do against real competition before we say he could mash like Mike Piazza.

    Here is what scouts said about Busch from the Instructional League:

    Busch earned universal reviews as the top hitter in Arizona. He took high quality at-bats, turned around upper-90s velocity and showed home run power to center field and both gaps. His balance, bat speed, hand-eye coordination and strike-zone discipline all drew high praise. Evaluators were split on Busch’s defense at second base, but he earned consistent grades as a plus hitter with plus power.

    Chances are the MiLB season will be short again. If Busch can somehow find his way to AA before the end of the MiLB season, then we can relook at whether he is a top 100 guy. So much more goes into the scouting grade than hitting, and I think that is what most are keying on. Michael needs to improve his range, his arm, and his speed to get to at least a 50 in those skillsets. He has a 40 arm, 40 field, and 45 run grade. It takes an overall 55 to get into the top 100, and not all 55’s are considered to be top 100. No matter how much Will Rhymes talks them up, Busch/Hoese/Miller/Beeter/Pages/Pepiot have to show it in competition to move up.

    How did the other players at the same grade level play last summer in their secondary site or instructional league? I am sure those fans are just as high that their team’s players have improved to get into the top 100. How do Busch and Hoese compare to Brice Turang, Mark Vientos, Brayan Rocchio, Lewin Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jose Garcia, Ezequial Duran, Kevin Alcantara, Orelvis Martinez, Alexander Vargas, William Contreras, Ryan Rolison. These are all guys outside of the top 100 but rated higher than Hoese and Busch.

    I think too many people are getting caught up in top 100. How many are in top 100 distinguishes how the organizations farm system compares to others. Right now the Dodgers have two in the top 100, and that puts them closer to the middle than to the top. But they do not need 5 top 100 guys at this time. It is not an end all be all, and does not mean that individuals outside of the top 100 will not be productive ML players? Randy Arozarena was not included in the top 100 last year.

    Below is a link from Baseball America on who the scouts thought stood out at the Instructional League. Of the 19, only two, Josh Jung, Texas 3B, and Adley Rutschman, Orioles Catcher, are top 100 prospects. For those who think Busch should be moved to top 100 because of Instructional League, why can’t the same argument be made for the other 16 players. Some will get added soon, while others will still not be included.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/19-mlb-prospects-who-impressed-scouts-at-instructional-league-in-2020/

22. I never saw a more arm talented guy than Yadi Alvarez.
    I watched him at Spring training a couple years ago and it was amazing what velocity he created with ease.
    Too bad his brain was not up to his arm.

    Go Dodgers””””””””””””””

    1. Give a guy who grew up in poverty, whose parents and grandparents grew up in poverty, twenty million dollars and you might find a guy who wants to enjoy that wealth more than he wants to ride buses in the minor leagues.

23. I realize it’s human nature to want the Dodgers to make some big impactful deal. So much uncertainty. Everyone wants the big trade, the major signing, but the Dodgers did that last year. Doesn’t get much bigger than Mookie Betts.

    Maybe for those of us who want to re-sign Justin Turner we’re just being sentimental, remembering days gone by — but he was pretty good in the playoffs. Has proven to be a clutch player for many years. In many ways he’s the face of the franchise along with Clayton Kershaw.

    We can always talk about Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado although it’s highly unlikely fhe Rockies would make a deal with LA. Would Bryant be a significant upgrade? Maybe, maybe not.

    Running a variety of scenarios, many that have been posted here, Turner seems to be the best option. It would be nice to have the DH. Something could always pop up that makes sense. We’ll see.

    It’s also human nature to think the grass is greener on the other side of the hill, which is exactly where the Lindor argument falls. Sometimes we forget just how good Corey Seager was before he got hurt. How exceptional he was in 2020 and in the playoffs.

    What about second base some will say? Well, Gavin Lux could be pretty good. There is always DJ LeMahieu, very good hitter, versatile. Thought the Dodgers should have signed him after he left the Rockies. Orel Hershiser said the Dodgers should have signed him back then. But the Dodgers chose a different path. One way or the other Friedman seems to be right more often than not.

    What about a bat? AJ Pollock had a pretty good year. They could use another right handed hitter. But the Dodgers can always use back end bullpen improvement. But I’ve noticed over the years that many of the suggestions made here never actually happen. Fun to speculate though.

    1. Come on. I remember succinctly several contributors brought up the Puig/Kemp/Wood/Farmer for Homer Bailey/Jeter Downs/Josiah Gray trade, days before it was announced.

       All kidding aside, most everyone “knew” that the Dodgers were going to trade for Machado. Most everyone remembers that the Dodgers were pushing hard for Brian Dozier or Logan Forsythe. It would have been Dozier if AF wanted to trade Belli. Smart move.

       I do remember some on here predicted Yu Darvish to the Dodgers. (I think Hawkeye early in the year). Francisco Lindor, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale were real trade targets that just did not materialize. I think Hill/Reddick was a surprise.

       Most people knew that AF was working on Mookie Betts for more than 8 months (since before the 2018 AS game).

       But the point is valid. AF will do the unexpected. How many here even heard of Garrett Cleavenger? I am with you. I think AF is waiting for JT to figure out that he is not worth 3 years, and will come back home where both he and Kourtney are comfortable. But it will have to be an AAV less than $10MM. I think 2B is Lux’s to lose. But he needs to be told that. Let him be comfortable out there. When he was comfortable at Tulsa and OKC he was unstoppable. And then MAYBE he is going to sign a back end end high leverage reliever. They have a little over $20MM to play with, and I do not think they will go over the CBT. I think closer to ST (or closer to the regular season), guys like Scott Alexander, Dylan Floro, and Adam Kolarek can be moved for lottery tickets. I think AF will go bargain hunting at the trade deadline.

24. Lots of food for thought today that is for sure. Anyway, I went to the Springs for my eye appointment and I thought it was going to be a pre op for my laser surgery. But I was totally surprised that he did the surgery today. I go back next week for a follow up, and then I get my new specs. I am down with what ever AF decides. He has done pretty well so far. And Bum, Torres is a mediocre fielder.

25. Thanks for the great posts, Mark and Jeff, the past couple of days, and all of the interesting and often entertaining comments! I haven’t had time to comment much lately, but I wanted to wish all of you at LADT a happy and above all healthy new year!

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