2020 was the year Minor League Baseball disappeared from the face of the earth. There is no trace of it and it does not appear in any record or history books. Some games were evidently played, but no records were kept. There is probably some video, but we will never be allowed to see it. What happened in 2020 could be a boon for some players and a bust for others.
- Maybe Keibert Ruiz spent hours a day working on his swing… burning it into his muscle memory and maybe the HR we say from him in his first call-up is his new norm. We don’t know – we lost a year, but the possibility exists that he COULD be MLB ready in the Spring of 2021.
- Maybe Kody Hoese and Mike Busch benefitted more from the one-on-one tutelage and are ready to take their game to the next level. We know that one year can be a make or break year (just ask Will Smith). Did 2020 help or hinder Kody and Mike? We don’t know.
- Maybe JoJo Gray has learned a new pitch or technique that can also take him to the next level. MLB writers recently voted for one player from each team to be the Rookie of the Year and Josiah Gray was the consensus winner for the Dodgers. Did JoJo take a big step forward at the USC location or a step back. We don’t know.
However, we have heard anecdotal evidence about each of these players that could lead one to believe that might be true. Maybe it’s true about all of them, but Hoese and Busch might only be ready for AA next year. I have heard several people talk about Gray’s development. The fact that he has only been pitching full-time for three years has shocked some people who say he has an amazing “feel” for the game. I have heard that his stuff is getting filthier, but I can’t really say.
If Ruiz is ready, that could be a game-changer. He could platoon with Austin Barnes as a L-R platoon and hit 8th. That would allow Will Smith go to 2B or 3B, which is like trading for a top tier player. Do you believe in Gavin Lux? Give him a try in LF and platoon him with Pollock until he shows he deserves 2B or Rios plays himself off 3B. The farm system stays intact and all the bats we need may be on the roster already.
I believe that Muncy and Bellinger will come back to their top form. If you do it once, twice… you can do it again. I believe that Muncy and Bellinger will both have great seasons in 2021.
Sign DJ LeMahieu? That would cost the Dodgers a draft pick. Remember when, after losing Mark Teixeira to free agency and the Yankees, the Angels were awarded the 25th pick of the draft as compensation. And who did they use that pick on? None other than Mike Trout. Or look at it another way: Signing Mark Teixeira cost the Yankees Mike Trout.
There are others, but here are the highlights (or lowlights), depending upon your perspective:
- The Rangers landed Joey Gallo after the Angels signed CJ Wilson.
- The Rockies drafted Trevor Story after losing Octavio Dotel to Toronto.
- The Yankees got Aaron Judge after losing Nick Swisher to the Indians.
- The D-Bags for AJ Pollock after losing Orlando Hudson to the Dodgers.
- The Braves got Adam Wainwright after the D-Bags signed Russ Springer.
The list is much longer, but you get my drift. If you aren’t forced to make a dope-fiend move, the player you draft may be better than the ones you sign. I would not be afraid to go into 2021 with this lineup:
- Betts RF
- Seager SS
- Smith 2B
- Muncy 1B
- Bellinger CF
- Pollock /Raley (or Reks) LF
- Rios 3B
- Barnes/Ruiz C
On the other hand, the Dodgers could have waited until Mookie Betts was a free agent this winter and signed him, but then they would have missed out on a World Series Championship. So, there is that! Ideally, I would like to see another power hitter at 3B.
The Bullpen
Yesterday, I wrote this:
The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who could prove to be more useful in 2021 than any free agent or trade. Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, even JoJo Gray, could prove to be valuable in the pen. I am not saying all will, but one or two might be ready
AC commented: “You cannot possibly believe that any of those prospects are better relievers than Hendriks, Hand, Yates, Rosenthal, Treinen, Colome, Melancon. Less expensive but not better.”
I am only talking about one or two out of that bunch, not all of them. But really my point is this and I will address each of those pitchers: Past performance is not indicative of future results. “Past performance is no guarantee of future results” is generally treated as a warning label: Don’t assume an investment will continue to do well in the future simply because it’s done well in the past. “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Let’s consider this:
- Liam Hendriks (32 years-old) – He has had one excellent year and one good year. Before that, he was not much to write home about. He is seeking a 4 or 5-year deal at around $12 million per year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Brad Hand (31 years-old) – He has lost a lot of velocity and his peripherals indicate that his stuff is not what it once was. Nobody wanted him for $10 million for 1 year. Maybe half that for a year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Kirby Yates (33 years old) – Fresh off elbow surgery. Will he be recovered? Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Trevor Rosenthal (31 years old) – Has had an up and down career, but since 2013, 2014, 2015 he has had just flashes of success. I might risk more on him. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Blake Treinen (31 years old) – Once put two good years together and while he was serviceable last year, he was not great. I’d give him $5 million for a year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Alex Colome (32 years old) – He has been pretty solid for several years so I would consider him, but at what cost. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Mark Melancon (36 years old) – His ship is sailing, but he would bring a different look to the Dodgers pen, but only at a Dollar General price.
The 800-pound gorilla in the room is that you could sign any of those guys and their arms could fall off. Then what? Right about now, Andrew Friedman is kicking the tires and waiting for someone to set the market, but he won’t make a dope-fiend move like signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to contracts for 2021 for a total $26 million.
The point is that any of the relievers the Dodgers could potentially sign are not a sure thing. Relievers are very fickle and injury-prone. One or the other can happen at any time. Of the players, I mentioned above (Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, JoJo Gray), one or maybe two could make the team at some time during the season. The Dodgers already have Knebel, Cleavinger, Alexander, Floro, Gonzalez, Graterol, Jansen, Kelly, Kolarek, May, Gonsolin, and Urias on the roster who all are vying for roles in the bullpen. Then add in non-roster invitees Asuaje, Schwaab, Pazos, Morrow, and Nelson and you have 17 pitchers competing for 7 or 8 spots… along with the other group I mentioned. There are always surprises, and I think there will be few next year – both good and bad.
Remember two things:
- You can never have enough arms in the bullpen; and
- Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Case for Going Big
Do You Wanna’ Get Really Crazy? So, everyone knows that Cincinnati wants to cut payroll. Joey Votto is Canadian and has 4 years and $100 Million dollars remaining on his contract. Maybe he is moveable… if some cash is included. Follow along with me:
The Dodgers give up Kody Hoese, Edwin Rios, Clayton Beeter, Jacob Amaya, and Mitch White.
The Reds give up Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, $20 Million, and Eugenio Suarez.
The Blue Jays give up Jordan Groshans and AJ Cole.
The Blue Jays end up with Joey Votto, $35 Million, and Sonny Gray. This also likely gets them out of the Justin Turner Sweepstakes. Votto finishes his career at home. Gray gives them another solid starter.
The Reds end up with Grohans, AJ Cole, Hoese, Rios, Beeter, Amaya, and White. It’s a nice haul and they get a lot of payroll relief.
The Dodgers end up with Suarez and Castillo.
Just an idea.
If someone gives Turner 3 years and $36 million the Dodgers will not counter, but I have a feeling that 2 years and $18 Million will get it done. Alex Wood is the only other Free Agent I would try and sign.
Lineup:
- Betts RF
- Smith C
- Seager SS
- Muncy 1B
- Suarez 3B
- Bellinger CF
- Pollock LF
- Lux 2B (yu gotta’ show me)
Bench: Turner, Barnes, McKinstry, Raley, Beaty
Rotation:
- Kershaw, Buehler, Castillo
- Price
- Urias, Gonsolin, May, Gray
Pen:
- Graterol
- Jansen
- Kelly
- Knebel
- Cleavinger,
- Alexander
- Floro
- Gonzalez
- Kolarek
- Morrow
- Nelson
- Wood
- Whoever…
I think they would be set. Would I do all that? Maybe… maybe not. Indecision may or may not be part of my problem. Remember Andrew Friedman’s Ten Commandments? Not likely to happen… I’m glad it’s him making these decisions and not me!
Who is the Lead Singer?
I have nothing more to say THIS YEAR!
I love your shirt I got one just like it. Your mask certainly is way above anything I have but u need to work on the hat. 2020 World Series championship hat should do.
You are right about relievers. They are a very fickle bunch. I would not overpay for past performance. Look at guys like Chapman, Kim bro, etc. they have become money pits. I mean look at Jansen who was better than anybody but has been shaky the past couple of years. Short term is best term.
The trade is a bit ambitious but I don’t have a better one. How about what u proposed from the Dodgers to Cincinnati for Castillo and Suarez and just leave Toronto out. Or, price , hoese,Amaya, white, plus 30 million for Suarez and Castillo.
Don’t you think you’re making a big leap of faith penciling Smith in at 2b? I know he played infield in the past, but it’s not common to just put someone into a new position at the major league level. Mookie has played more innings at 2b in the majors than Smith!
I could see giving him some innings there in spring training to evaluate that possibility and then some more when the season starts. But doesn’t Lux deserve a longer look?
These are all hypothetical. If Lux wants the job, let him take it!
I really like Smith but not at 2b or 3b.
We need better defense at either position.
Keep him at c and if Ruiz is ready use him as trade bait for 3b in the right deal.
Lux will play 2b and do well if the Dodgers are patient with him.
Got all the tools.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!
Interesting read Mark, and logical. I am not sure which way AF goes. But, to me, signing DJLM and losing a draft pick is a win. Simply because you have a player who you know is going to contribute to the success of the team. And the need for one more arm at the back of the pen is still going to be there. The reports on Uceta have been outstanding. Maybe he pulls a Steve Howe and comes from no where to be a solid contributor out of the pen. Graterol will probably improve some, but he still needs a kill pitch. For a guy with his stuff, his K rate is rather low. Cleavenger? Not sure I am putting a lot of trust in a 26 year old who has never pitched above AAA, If I make a trade, I am unloading some of the redundant players in the system, Beaty, or Reks, or Raley who are 3 versions of the same player. I give Peters a long look in spring and see if he can cut down on the whiffs, same thing with Thomas. That guy has some serious power, and I would work him out at 1st base, which means if Lux falls on his ass, you can move Muncy over to second. But that is just me, trying to think outside the box.
Peters can play CF, you can move Belli back to 1st under that scenario. Or Betts in CF and Peters in RF.
Only way Belli moves for Peters is if he hits like Piazza.
DJLM will cost $$$$ and around a #70 pick in the draft. The Dodgers would lose their 2nd highest pick which will be around 70. Unsure exactly how many competitive balance and supplemental picks between the 1st and 2nd rounds just yet. If that draft pick is so important that the team would forego DJLM, then I submit that the Dodgers will not extend Seager, but will give him a QO, let him walk, and take an extra draft between 30-40. Hey, there might be another Hoese or Busch available. Hoese/Busch or Seager? Hmmm. What the heck, they can get two picks if they give CK a QO.
I think AF is much smarter than that. I give him far more credit. He lost a pick when he signed AJ Pollock. I doubt that he would even blink at the loss of a pick if he could get DJLM on a reasonable contract. DJLM is all going to ride on whether the Dodgers outbid NYY. Probably not. But it will not be because of the fear of losing a draft pick.
I was wondering why Peters hadn’t been mentioned at all. If he does come around offensively (cut down on K’s) it would be nice having having another RH bat on the roster.
DJ’s hurdle is also that he plays OF, where a RH bat isn’t an issue at the moment. Pollock’s 2020 season was quite impressive. However, I do believe the Dodgers are higher on him than the baseball scouts who put together the rankings. Beaty and Rios were never ranked very high on any prospect lists. But the Dodgers obviously evaluated them both differently. I tend to think the world of baseball writers and scouts over emphasize skill sets, which is understandable given the volume of players they have to rank. Internally, the teams take in many more variables over time as players move through the system. As an example, the Angels top rookie this year was Jared Walsh. He never broke the top 20 on most Angels lists. Not fast. 1B corner OF only. 30+ round pick. Several 1st rounders in the system ranked ahead of him at 1b. But he got more playing time by mid season than any of them. And he may have taken ROY in the AL if he had been given more ABs. Yet he was never ranked anywhere near the players he leaped over. The Angels obviously valued him much higher than the media experts.
I think DJ will be given a solid shot this year. But it may take an injury or two for him to get any consistent playing time. That’s just the reality of a team with so much depth.
K% is a major concern.
Could be 40% in bigs.
Some guys get over that. He is still a kid, needs a chance
The best time to forego a draft pick is the year you’re picking last. Especially when a very good fit is available for your roster. Friedman has made some mighty high praises about Will Smith’s glove in the past. I don’t see he moving Smith’s glove from behind the plate to 2B on a team that values defense so highly. Not when there’s a pretty good defender who plays multiple positions and hits with a lot of contact and a high average on the open market. I think it’s time they best the Yankees and get DJLM and let the cards fall where they may in Spring Training.
Back to Smith. I’m sure Smith could handle an infield position if he focused on it. It will take a little time, but it certainly won’t be as ugly as Joc at 1B. I get where you’re coming from. You’ve seen Todd Zeile and Craig Biggio make the move from behind the pate to the infield. But, I think this recurring theme is more about your undying support for K-Bear. Which really doesn’t solve the problem at all, since he is mostly a left handed hitter anyways. All it does is block Rios or Lux, both superior left handed hitters throughout their minor league careers and natural infielders to get two catchers into the line up. Basically hurting offense and defense in the process.
I love the rumors that the Dodgers are in talks with DJ. It makes a ton of sense and he’s exactly the type of player that Friedman loves. If they fail, go shopping at the Cubsco and pick up a big ole package of 3b in Kris Bryant. K-Bear would look great in a Cubs uniform.
Is that Kenny Rogers?
The First Edition? Yes, Kenny Rogers. I can’t remember how many albums of the First Edition that I had in the late 60’s early 70’s.
They made 12 studio albums Jeff, between 1967 and 1974. Their last one was released only in New Zealand.
I had at least ten and maybe all 12. When the First Edition came out with a new album, I would buy it. I got married in 1974 so my frivolous spending days were done.
Got married in 2000 and my frivolous spending started then!
I had their greatest hits album and that was it. Kenny Rogers as a single artist, whole different story. I have at least 20 of his.
I have a lot of his single albums as well. Kenny will always be one of my favorites. He also has that voice that you know who it is as soon as you hear him, no matter what he is singing.
Yes, his voice was totally recognizable. Just like Elvis and some others
You know I am going to play. Past performance is no guarantee. Of course that is correct. However, you seem to believe that minimal success at A Ball is a better gauge for success than those who have been successful closers in the very recent past. Or in the case of Miler and Beeter, why waste time with MiLB at all. After all, Instructional League is as good as any season of AA full game competition and then a season of AAA full game competition. Or maybe we should do like NFL and NBA and bring the players straight to MLB because they do not need MiLB development. I can hear Hoese and Busch now…MiLB? We don’t need no stinkin’ MiLB.
Past performance is no guarantee. I assume that is to give us hope that Dennis Santana is now ready.
Career – 25.2 IP, 6.66 ERA, 1.519 WHIP
2020 – 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 1.519 WHIP
Game on the line against Tatis, Machado, and Hosmer, and Mark would bring in Dennis Santana or Mitch White or any of the others who have never pitched at ML level (most not above A Ball) because he did not want to spend for any of Liam Hendriks, Trevor Rosenthal, Brad Hand, Kirby Yates, or Alex Colome. Why? Because they cost money. Never mind that LAD would make that up and more if they won the WS. I submit the Dodgers have a better chance with Hendriks, Rosenthal, Yates, Hand, or Colome than with Santana, White, Pepiot, Carrillo, Miller, Beeter, or Grove. By the way, when was the last time that Grove pitched well, even at A Ball? And you want to consider him for MLB bullpen? Why not Melvin Jimenez or Zach Willeman or Marshall Kasowski, or even Josh Sborz who is already on the 40 man?
I catch Mark’s ire when I say that AF does not value the bullpen. I have relented somewhat, but not entirely. He may value them, but they are his last thought in building the team. I am a Brandon Morrow fan, and I believe he will pitch well this year. But as Mark says…”There is no guarantee”. I am not nearly as confident in Jimmy Nelson or Garrett Cleavenger or James Pazos. Maybe, but probably not.
This stance of Mark’s is a little different than what he thought just two short years ago. After Joe Kelly was signed, Mark wrote:
“What can we expect from Joe Kelly? Until recently Joe Kelly was consistently inconsistent. He walked too many and struck out too few… but man-o-man… his stuff is fast, filthy and furious. He couldn’t start and couldn’t close. I am betting that Honeycutt, Prior and the Dodgers Brass see something great that they believe they can invoke in JK. Andrew Friedman throws around nickels like they are manhole covers when we are talking relievers, so why is Joe Kelly any different? Because he IS different! 100 MPH different with movement.
Maybe Kenley teaches him the cutter. I guarantee that Friedman did not give him $25 million for smoke and mirrors.
Scott Alexander (I’ll have to work on a name for him) and Machine Gun will form a formidable L-R Tandem in the bullpen next season. Sprinkle in Floro, Ferguson and others and the Dodgers might just have a world-class bullpen. BTW, I am on record as predicting a great season for Alexander in 2019…. Chicken Strip too!
Pedro Moura of The Athletic wrote this yesterday:
Why spend big right now when you already know you have a good chance at another World Series bid as is?
Mark’s Response:
The obvious answer is TO TRY AND WIN THE WORLD SERIES! ”
Okay Mark. Are the Dodgers not trying to win a WS this year, or are we going to rely on Alexander, Kelly, and Floro, as was discussed back in December 2018, and add in Santana, White, and Cleavenger?
One more thing. Who is going to be the late inning high leverage closer for the team? KJ? Machine Gun Kelly? That is it. Those are your choices. Neither Graterol nor VGon are ready for that just yet. They will be, but not yet. The Dodgers are not the Pirates or Orioles or Marlins or Royals where experimentation is prevalent. The Dodgers are a WS Champion with the thoughts of repeating. They need WS Champion caliber personnel, not MiLB depth. You bring in a Bazooka or VGon and put them in the right spots where they can taste success. They do not get thrown into must win situations. And forget that teams are now saying that they are not going to use a closer, but bring in pitchers where the situation calls for. I say BS. Every team will have ONE guy they can count on to come in and shut down a team in the 9th to preserve a win. Or are you going to end up hoping that Dennis Santana or Scott Alexander will get the 27th out?
By the way. I agreed with Mark in 2018 and thought Kelly was a good gamble. It has not worked out, and unlike Mark, I am not hopeful that he will be THAT guy in 2021. But they tried something different. I give AF credit. Dodgerrick hated the FA signing at the time, and I am sure he still does.
I completely agree with you Jeff on Kelly. He’s been a huge disappointment for me. I sang his praises coming into spring last year. As we all see, his stuff is filthy. That high running fastball looks like it’s running into your Adam’s Apple. I come to believe he’s a frickin head-case. He’s had a number of fixes to improve his control and none have worked. Now he’s become a slider/curveball machine. He’s become Sergio Romo. Didn’t he have an outing last year where he threw like 26 consecutive breaking balls? Let me tell you, if I had a 100mph running heater I wouldn’t lose all faith in it and become a junker. He’s been a bust and one player I would love to see gone. But that big contract keeps him around.
Well stated!!
Ferguson won’t pitch this year Jeff. He should be back in 22. Padres are talking to Yates on a new deal. I hear they do not want to pay him more than 5 mil. If he is that cheap, bring him to LA. Preller was asked after the Padres fury of deals if they were better than the Dodgers. He answered tactfully of course saying LA had ruled the division for most of the last decade, so we have to see how it plays out. But if you go position by position, they only have a clear edge at 3rd. Hosmer is a good first baseman, but I would take Muncy over him. Seager and Tatis at this point offensively are close, with Tatis getting the edge with the glove. Kim is an unknown, and the same with Lux. Machado is better than anyone we put at 3rd for now. The outfield? Not even close,. Pollock over Croenenworth who has yet to play out there. Bellinger much better than the Pads CF no matter who plays there including Myers, and Betts, easily the best RF in the game. Catchers, they have 2 good ones, and so do we. They might have the edge in starters, but unless they get Yates and or Rosenthal back, their pen is untested.
I know Ferguson is out for the year. I was responding yesterday to someone who said that he thought that Cleavenger’s scouting report looked like Ferguson’s. I do not know what Cleavenger’s actual scouting report looks like, but thus far he is nowhere close to the pitcher Ferguson is. Will he get there with the Dodgers development team? I hope so. I also do not know what Ferguson will look like when he does come back after his second TJ. I think you have to plan that he will not make it back, and if he does, how great will that be.
I do not think the Padres are equivalent to the Dodgers. But I do think you understate what the Pads did last year. Will they do it again this year? We will have to wait and see. But let’s look at the 2020 comps: The Dodgers played down individually, and maybe the Pads played up.
Hosmer .287/.333/.517/.851
Muncy .192/.331/.389/.720
Grisham .251/.352/.45/.808 – Won GG
Belli .239/.333/.455/.789 – GG Candidate
Myers .288/.353/.606/.959
Mookie .292/.366/.562/.927 – Won GG
Cronenworth .285/.354/.477/.831
Pollock .279/.335/.474/.809
I think Cronenworth will be a GG candidate if he plays LF this year. Every time I saw him play, he was making all of the routine plays and many of the difficult plays at 2B. He has a SS arm so nobody is running on him in LF.
In every case the Pads OPS was better than the Dodgers. I do not think Myers is in the same hemisphere as Mookie, but he had a very good year, including 15 HR. He does not have to play as well as Mookie. He is not expected to be the big guy. That role belongs to Machado. Will he repeat it? We will see. I suspect that Mookie will play even better and Myers will play well but not at the same level as he did in 2020.
I do not think Grisham is a better defensive CF than Belli, but those that vote did. So am I voting with my heart and not my eyes? Grisham had a better offensive year. Before I get hung in effigy, shall I go back and read all the comments about how Belli has to get off the plate and quit chasing the inside pitch? Is he the MVP or the 2020 player? I think closer to MVP but he has holes and he needs to adjust. Will he?
We have been talking about Muncy the last few days, but last year, he was not the equivalent of Hosmer. He is supposed to be a run producer who hits .193/.383/.357/.740 with 2 outs and RISP. Impressive OBP, but he is not getting paid to walk. He is supposed to drive in runs.
Since 2020, the Padres have lost, Garrett Richards, Jurickson Profar, Zach Davies, Jason Castro, Mitch Moreland, Trevor Rosenthal, and Kirby Yates. They have added Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Ha-Seong Kim, Victor Caratini. Their starting pitching has improved, I suspect that Kim will prove to be a better player than Profar, and Caratini for Castro is a wash. He is Darvish’s personal catcher so that makes him more valuable to SD. I suspect they will replace Rosenthal and/or Yates. but neither player was much of a factor last year anyway. They also have a full year with a much better hitting catcher.
Dodgers – Lost JT, Treinen, Joc, Kike’, McGee, Wood – Added – Knebel and Cleavenger (Kahnle for 2022). The Dodgers are obviously not done, but I suspect neither are the Padres. The Padres are going to need repeat seasons out of Hosmer, Myers, and Cronenworth. Not to mention two MVP types in Machado and Tatis Jr. I know it may be blasphemous because McKinstry is a fan favorite, but he is not equal to Kike’. The Dodgers do not have a bat equal to Joc. They have lost four members of a bullpen (five if you count Ferguson), and added one (I do not count Cleavenger. He will not make the 26 man). The Dodgers need rebound years out of Belli and Max, they need Corey to have another big year, and they need a replacement for JT. By the way, JT is good for a playoff series where he can play all out, but can he sustain it over a 162 game (or 100 game) season? Just like with Chase, at some point, the body says I am done.
So I agree. On paper right now, the Padres are still chasing the Dodgers, but the gap has narrowed. If they get into the playoffs, they will have to play each other. Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Gore with Paddack (or Gore) to the pen. That is a very formidable rotation for the playoffs. Snell and Gore as LHSP. The Dodgers will still have to prove they can beat lefties (good lefties), and more so now without JT and Kike’. The Padres will not be fearful of the Dodgers. Who gets hot in October?
I figured you knew Fergie is out just like Kahnle
If Joe Kelly can’t turn it around, he could be without a job in 2021 and go down in infamy as a horrible signing. I think he had an injury last year because they were protecting him, but whatever the reason, he can’t be on the team and just throw curveballs.
I am not against paying a reliever – it’s just not the solution. Some of the best, if not THE BEST relievers over the past few years have been low-paid youngsters.
Devin Williams 53 IP at AA and 3.2 at AAA in his minor league career, until he burst on the scene in 2020.
Garrett Crochet went from draft pick to the majors in 3 months last year and was pretty much unhittable (6 IP).
Josh Staumont looked to be a career AAA player when he hit the majors last season and tied Jacob deGrom for the highest velocity.
The Rays bullpen was built with a bunch of misfits, re-treads, and rookies… just like they always do. I only need one (two would be nice) rookie to step up.
Dennis Santana is now a full-time reliever and while I have no illusions about him, he would not be the first guy to figure out how to use his splitter or slider in conjunction to his fastball. His command is (as usual) the issue.
Scott Alexander was injured last year. When healthy, he can be useful, but I would not likely bring him in for the final out. He is just a piece.
I look for VGon and Bazooka to take steps forward… how much? We don’t know. Floro has been very useful.
Here’s what the Dodgers currently have in the bullpen:
1. May, Urias, or Gonsolin – I can make a case for any of them
2. Jansen – His salary keeps him there. Hopefully, he can return to form – 50/50!
3. Graterol – He is the target of the Dodger staff for incremental improvement.
4. Gonzalez – I think he will be high-leverage in 2021.
5. Floro – Solid if not spectacular
6. Knebel – I AM counting on him
7. Uceta is really turning heads after he got his screwed back on. Not counting on him, but…
8. Cleavenger and Alexander? Who knows?
9. Kelly – Not high hopes.
10. Kolarek – I think he is a solid piece.
11. Morrow, Nelsen, Schwabb, Pazos. Asuaje – maybe one?
How many more do we need?
I have no confidence in Sborz – Little in Santana. However, White, Pepiot… even Miller and/or Gray are also options. I am OK with the right signing, but I don’t want to give Hendriks a 4 or 5-year deal.
Here’s why you think AF does not value the bullpen.: Signing those veteran guys you mentioned is like shopping at a fake Tiffany’s for a diamond – 2/3 or maybe half the time, you are going to get a fake diamond. It looks good when you buy it, but that’s the end of it.
It is not how many do you need. It is who are the best available to assemble for a championship run. Why should the Dodgers re-sign JT or sign DJLM? They have Rios, Hoese, Vargas, McKinstry, Mann, Santana, not to mention Muncy and CT3, and maybe even Lux. How many more do they need?
Neither Uceta or Gray should be in the bullpen in 2021 unless it is in September. They need to stay in AAA and continue their development to become starting pitchers. Mitch White’s trade value is negligible, so I would put him in AAA and see if he can become a back end starter. If not, he could go to the pen as the long man, emergency starter. A poor man’s Ross Stripling, if you will. To even consider wasting a year of development on Gray and Uceta because, AF believed that Garrett Cleavenger or Dennis Santana was the answer is, well in your words, felony stupid.
Liam Hendriks is not going to get a 4-5 year deal. That is a straw man argument. JTR is looking for 6 years. He is not going to get that either. I doubt that DJLM will get a fifth year. I would not have given KJ 5 years. 2 years Trevor Rosenthal? 2 years Brad Hand? 1 year with incentives and an option for Kirby Yates? Trevor May was my favorite choice and he signed a 2 year $15.5MM deal. I cannot see Hand or Rosenthal getting much more, if any. I would have made that deal for Trevor May every day. By 2022, Ryan Pepiot, Gerardo Carrillo, Jack Little, Braidyn Fink, Aaron Ochsenbein, could all be ready, or they will need another year. We will also know better if Miller, Beeter, Knack, or Kendall Williams are legit starter options of if they need to go to the pen.
Don’t mistake my devil’s advocate rant as a dis on the LAD farm hands. NOTHING could be further from the truth. Quite the contrary. I think the Dodgers development staff are second to none, and that they will generate multiple useful members on the 26 man for years to come, just with the prospects (and non-prospects) they currently have. BUT THEY ARE NOT READY. There is a MiLB for a reason.
I have used Devin Williams in arguments as well. It is true, he came out of nowhere. I am sorry, but I do not see a Devin Williams in the MiLB system for the Dodgers. And to not sign a proven reliever because you might have a Devin Williams in the system, is Brewers thinking (or Pirates/Orioles/Royals). 2020 Garrett Crochet was an anomaly. Even at Tennessee he was more than hittable. If I had to bet, I would say that Crochet will start in MiLB in 2021. The ChiSox get Bummer back this year. They also have Codi Heuer, Matt Foster, Evan Marshall, and Ross Detwiler returning. They are also the favorite to land Hendriks. As good as Crochet may become, he is not going to replace Colome and close for a team looking for a championship this year.
There is no need to rush the prospects unless you have no chance of winning. Bring them up, but do not expect them to be the saviors of the team. Neither Kershaw or Buehler or Urias were all that right away. And we are to expect that prospects not at their skill level to be stars after losing a year of development? I beleive in the LAD development program, but it needs time. Fill in with FA and or a trade from excess prospects that you will never use. 13 RHP? Really?
Mark
I appreciate your optimism, but here are the names you listed and what TRUTHFULLY they are. I’m using statistics (mostly career statistics) to back up my argument.
1 One of May, Urias, Gonsolin will be in the bullpen. I believe it will be Gonsolin but I may be wrong. I expect good things with whichever name it is of the 3.
2 Jansen has turned into a guy that can only get lefties out consistently. That concerns me.
3 Graterol would be in my bullpen even with the stats he has against lefties because he hasn’t racked up enough innings to call him a ROOGY. For those who don’t know what a ROOGY and LOOGY are, it’s right handed one out guy and left handed one out guy.
4 Gonzalez would be in my bullpen because he is solid against both sides of the plate so far in his career.
5 Floro is a ROOGY.
6 Knebel statistically has a career .732 OPS against the right side of the plate. That concerns me.
7 Uceta hasn’t pitched in the big league.
8 Cleavenger and Alexander. One is an unknown the other is a LOOGY.
9 Kelly absolutely sucks.
10 Kolarek is a LOOGY.
11 Morrow, Nelsen, Schwabb, Pazos, Asuaje are all those scraps that Friedman likes to have around in case one works out.
You asked “How many more do we need?” The answer to that is we need more because most of the names you listed are garbage.
I’d like to see if Friedman can pry Doolittle away from the DC area. I’m also high on Joakim Soria. And I’m not against Friedman signing one of the free agent relievers that most people talk about. Also Roberto Osuna never got convicted of wife/woman beating, maybe he was innocent, he surely has great career statistics.
Good arguments, but the 3 batter rule has made Roogy’s and Loogy’s obsolete. Osuna will never be a Dodger based on character alone. He may have not been convicted of it, but he was suspended for 75 games. And the Jays got rid of him as soon as they could. It carries a stigma that many teams do not want to deal with. I remember a couple of the Phoenix teams, the D-Backs and the Suns dealing with players who were accused before the leagues instituted fines and suspensions. Usually the teams would just release guys like that. The Suns player arrested, Jason Kidd,..yep, one of the Lakers assistant coaches.
Osuna was not convicted because the beaten woman would not press charges. Figure out why. He was suspended for 75 games because MLB did see the pictures and they were gutless to say he should be out of baseball. Also note, that he did not even bother to appeal the suspension. Gee, I wonder why. I do know that anyone who has seen the pictures KNOWS that he beat the S— out of her. I will say this. If Osuna is a Dodger, I will not be a Dodger fan as long as he is on the team.
Doolittle is not leaving the east coast, and he is probably done. He is not even considered an honorable mention FA reliever. I will not say that it is not important, but OPS does not gauge results. Over the last three years Soria has 19 saves and 11 blown saves. Over the same period KJ has 62 saves and 14 blown saves. So KJ has only three more blown saves against 43 more saves, and Soria is an upgrade? With the game on the line, KJ has proven to get the job done way more than Soria. The Dodgers have Soria in KJ, Bazooka, and VGon. What they need is the late inning high leverage come in and shut down the other team closer. They need the guy who will face Tatis, Machado, and Hosmer, and tells them “gentlemen, take your seat. You are done”. And then goes out and does it. That used to be KJ. When Welcome To the Jungle came blaring over the speakers, you KNEW the game was over. The Dodgers need another one of them. That is not Soria, and it is not Doolittle anymore. What good is a .350 hitter if he can’t do it when needed to drive in runs. That is why I love 2 out RISP numbers.
Hey Jeff, does Gagne still pitch? Just a dream. I agree. they need a lockdown guy and neither of those two fits that bill.
Jeff
Who the hell is saying Doolittle is done? The talking heads on TV? I’ve learned a long time ago to not believe everything that you hear.
We just disagree. I’ll take career OPS stats over blown save stats and clutch stats. There’s luck in those stats that you like.
I did mention that I would not be against Friedman signing one of the free agent relievers that most people are talking about. Those names fit your description of lock down.
You’re using the term lock down to object to Joakim Soria. Take a look at the list of relievers Mark has listed and tell me that Joakim Soria is not an upgrade. You’re actually going to tell me that Soria is not an upgrade over most of those guys?
I think if you go back and read what I wrote, you would find I took exception to what Mark wrote. I also take exception to your suggestions. You want Doolittle and Soria. I prefer Hendriks, Rosenthal, Yates or Colome. You have your opinion, I have mine. I prefer guys who have been there and done it recently with the game on the line. And still young enough to continue. I will not say Soria is old, because RP can sometimes age well. I have no objection to Soria, but he is not what the Dodgers need. KJ, Bazooka, and VGon are more than capable of being 7th and sometimes 8th inning pitchers. You look at a metric that doesn’t measure results when they count. You discount blown saves except when it is KJ blowing the save.
Talking heads on TV? Baseball journalists? People who talk to GM’s and players? Pardon me if I think they are more knowledgeable and have more connections than you. I am not so arrogant that I beleive I know more or have better connections than they do. Are they always right. That is a big NO. But again they have more information than you (or me). Now let’s look at Doolittle. I never paid that much attention to him because I never thought he was a Dodger possibility. He is an east coast guy, and that is where he is going to stay. Someone on the east coast will pay him even if it is a MiLB contract. Philadelphia needs relievers BADLY. You look at his career numbers without paying attention to what he has done lately. That is the trouble with stats. You have to look at them all.
I am just looking at the one stat that you believe in for the last two years.
2019 vs RHB – .824 OPS
2019 vs LHB – .656 OPS
2020 vs RHB – 1.200 OPS
2020 vs LHB – .767 OPS
You really want him pitching to RHB?
He will be 34 next year. I assume you think that he will revert to his 2018 numbers. Based on what?
Blake Treinen improved in 2020 from his disastrous 2019. Doolittle got measurably worse.
Again I said I wouldn’t object to those names you mentioned and want. I’m just not high on them. I think you know how I feel about Friedman’s bullpen building ways, I’m not a fan of it. That’s why I’m fine with any of those names you mentioned.
And again clutch stats are pretty much meaningless to me. There are guys that have overall so so stats but for some reason have good clutch stats and vice versa. There is luck involved with clutch stats.
I don’t just look at career stats, I also look at recent stats and I know Doolittle’s stats and you are right I believe he will bounce back.
You know me, I’d like the bullpen blown up. there’s only 3 guys currently that the Dodgers have for relievers that I am high on and they are one of May, Urias, Gonsolin. One of them will be in the bullpen. Plus Graterol and Gonzalez. So I’m fine with Friedman signing a big name reliever like the ones you mentioned.
Maybe I haven’t been paying enough attention but I’ve never heard anyone say Doolittle is done. That’s why I was surprised to hear you say that.
Oops I forgot to mention that Doolittle was battling injuries the past 2 years which explains his bad stats the last 2 years. If he is medically cleared and ready to go I would want him in my bullpen. I know he and his wife like the DC area but if he is healthy I’d hope Friedman would look at him as an option. Money COULD change minds.
I would think you would not be fine with Jansen and Kelly and the ROOGY’s and LOOGY’s in the Dodger bullpen. There’s enough room for Soria, Doolittle and a couple guys you mentioned.
Just a little correction. Alexander is not all that bad, he’s a borderline LOOGY with a career .710 OPS against the right side of the plate. But if it was up to me I’d replace him with someone better. But I’m not in charge.
Friedman is not going to blow up the pen for those guys. Jansen, Kelly, Kolarek and Floro are the only 30 year olds in the pen. And all of them are younger than Doolittle and Soria. Floro is 30 and Kolarek is 31. He is not going to bring in two guys in their mid 30’s. And you are right, Doolittle has been injured. Which also means he is 3 years removed from being good. Soria on the other hand has not been a premier reliever since 2015. He did have 16 saves in 2018 with the White Sox. His K% is pretty decent and so is his WHIP. AF knows all this, and yet there is no buzz about him anywhere on any Dodger blog.
Thank you Mark For your interesting article. “The farm system stays intact and all the bats we need may be on the roster already.” This is Pretty much what I am hoping to see. I know it may not work out perfectly (no one knows). But I sure would like to see the team give it a shot. I also hope that JT will be back for a year or two.
Lot of moving parts in your trade, Mark.
If the Dodgers could land Castillo and Suarez, that’s probably a deal that makes sense. More likely the Reds want to unload just Gray and not Castillo. Certainly Votto if they could.
Interesting discussion on MLB TV yesterday. If the Rockies trade Arenado they would likely have to toss in money to make the deal since he has less value at Covid prices than what he originally signed for — if he was a free agent today, his contract would be far less than what is still owed to him. Makes sense.
I think Turner gets a two-year deal with an option.
I actually hated the Orlando Hudson signing. Not because Hudson wasn’t a really good player, but it cost the Dodgers the 16th pick. Hudson certainly started with a bang, but for whatever reason, his star faded with the Dodgers. Would the Dodgers have inked Mike Trout? Probably not. Logan White would have focused the pick elsewhere. For whatever reason, I really liked Trout, thought he was a right handed version of Darin Erstad. He turned out to be so much more. That was the Angels scouting department who nailed that. One of the scouts was really high on Trout. Great back story.
I think second belongs to Gavin Lux this spring. He’ll stay if he performs. Would not be surprised to see Smith at third in the future. Not unusual to see young players struggle.
I agree with Mark on past success for relievers not guaranteeing future success. Just ask the Rockies about that.
You have to pick and choose carefully. It’s a total crapshoot from year to year. Investing big dollars may or may not make sense.
Expect Max Muncy to have a big season in ’21. Over the past three years has produced better numbers than many of the players mentioned as potential trade pick-ups
You should check your math before making claims. Max Muncy was not better than Eugenio Suarez the last three years.
Suarez v Muncy
2B 52 v 43
HR 98 v 82
Ave 283 271 202 v 263 251 192
Slg 526 572 470 v 582 515 389
Sorry, but it drives me crazy when people make unsubstantiated claims. You might as well have said Max Muncy lead the league in Home Runs the last three years. It’s just as accurate.
Did I say Suarez? Did I compare Muncy to Suarez? Actually I didn’t. What I said … Muncy has produced better numbers than MANY of the players mentioned as potential trade targets. I did not just limit that to players mentioned here. Lots of sites, many discussions, different players mentioned. It was a general statement. Sorry it drove you crazy since somehow you misinterpreted what I wrote. Deep breath, relax.
Yes, you mentioned Suarez in the second sentence. Most of the names mentioned in trades are Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arrenado, Jose Ramirez and the aforementioned Eugenio Suarez. Muncy isn’t better than any of them, much less most of them. So, who were you referring to? Enlighten me.
My goodness. Seriously? Go back and read it again. I mentioned Suarez in reference to what Mark said about a potential trade. Never did I compare him to Muncy. That seems to be very simple. I may just toss out a list of names mentioned here and there over the past couple of months in the near future just for fun. Have a happy and safe new year, BP.
Now there’s some ass backward thinking fur ya.
I would love that last lineup though and the double third basemen is some real progressive thinking but the age old question is: Who’s on first?
I’d like to see the Dodgers like I remember Richard Prior and Gene Wilder in the “We Bad” scene of Stir Crazy.
LeMahieu, Bauer, Turner & Wood.
I also like someone else’s suggestion a week or so ago about trading Lux for Hader.
My fave movie with those 2 was “See No Evil, Hear No Evil”
Typo – Fixed!
Would you get the Hader of the past or something different?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
By that logic, Kelly will be our closer this year and challenge Gagne’s record. 😉
Lana Turner and Natalie Wood? Love them both.
What kind of wood doesn’t float?
Oh no Bulldog, U did not go there!
I tried to follow that trade but was stumped by what the Blue Jays did there. They gave up a prospect, Top 100 but not Top 50, and a pitcher with a 4.65 ERA and get $35 million, Joey Votto and Sonny Gray. Votto as a DH could probably rip it up for 3 years and Gray can still throw 150 innings at sub 4 ERA. The rest looks ok, but I don’t see it happening. I’ve got nothing better so I’m remaining where I’ve been all winter.
I don’t think DJLM is leaving Gnu Yourk.
Does Pollock need to be platooned? I don’t think so but he does need time off and I see McKinstry is on the bench. He can play anywhere so maybe he takes Kiké’s role. I’m not sold on Beaty.
Smith catches, Turner and Rios put up 5 WAR at third and I think Friedman will get a late inning reliever. As long as Bellinger and Muncy return to form we should be fine for ‘21.
Badger, I have the same question about Pollock. I wonder why his name is spelled Pollock/ when you look at the depth chart in left. Many just seem to think we have to platoon him with a lefty bat. His splits last year might support that hitting .345 against left handed pitching and .248 versus righties. But his career stats are .285 and .276. So unless you have a platoon partner that can hit .280, you might consider leaving him alone out there. When health, he’s a good player.
Not in the playoffs!
He did ok in the Padre series, but he was not the only one who struggled. He actually out hit Bellinger in the World Series, .176 to .136. But one of Belli’s 3 hits was a homer. But in his defense, Pollock only had 6 at bats. Hardly enough to judge. Muncy actually woke up some after the 2 game sweep of the Brewers where he went 0-5. But the stars of the series were Seager and Joctobler
Because they have not figured out yet who they are going to platoon out there so it is Pollock/
Mark, just to prove to you that I read every word you write, I have a couple of questions on your three team trade:
“The Reds give up Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, $20 Million, and Eugenio Suarez.”
How does Votto wind up in Toronto if the Reds didn’t include him in the trade?
How do the Jays wind up with $35MM if the Reds are only including $20MM?
One last thing, Votto has a full no trade clause and has already indicated he isn’t prepared to leave Cincy, even for Canada.
Other than that, if you can get us Suarez and Castillo for what you indicated, I’m all for it, but in my humble opinion the Dodgers are the only one of the three teams that would do that deal.
I don’t see Cincy including Suarez and Castillo, their two best players in the same deal. You can file that under “Ain’t never gonna happen”. See Cubs trading Darvish and Bryant in the same deal.
I believe I called it “Get Really Crazy!”
Mark, yesterday you said I lost you and it appears you are still crazy lost but I like crazy. Fun Post.
There’s no way your first lineup wins a WS! Without Turner, Joc and Kike who have been big playoff contributors. That lineup won’t even win the West and wouldn’t even see the NLCS. AF has this figured out and I believe he will sign or trade for a closer. And am I the only one who saw Smith swing and miss every breaking ball in the playoffs? He’s not playing third and he’s not hitting third in my lineup until he proves he can hit off speed.
Whoa there horsefly. Turner and Joc have been pretty good in playoffs and World Series, but Kike has a .204 average in 22 NLCS games and a .184 average in 17 World Series games. He gets kudos because he hit 3 homers in the clinching game against the Cubs in 17. Hitting under .200 in 39 of the most important games of the season is not being a big playoff contributor. He has had his moments, but he is far from being a great post season player. He hit better, .250 in 17 NLDS games. Joc’s career average in the post season is .273.
Kike has had some clutch hits in the playoffs including the game tying hr in game 7 against Atlanta. Plus some incredible and versatile defense. I’ll take him on my playoff roster anyday!
I would not. A career .213 playoff average is not good. And the homers mean little unless you win. He did have a clutch one against Atlanta. But it takes more than homers to be a good playoff player. Yes, he is a versatile fielder. But his time in LA is over OVER. he is not coming back. So just live with it.He was bad in the World Series. And other than the homer, he did little against Atlanta. He is a reserve, nothing more.
OK, now that I have reeled everyone in, Today’s blog is titled “The Case for Standing Pat.”
I did not say that AF would stand pat.
I did not say that I would stand pat.
I will say that Dolittle will not leave the East Coast.
Hell, he’ll fly clear to Tokyo.
Comments were closed on last post before I could chime in. One thing about LA farm is they graduated a large number of guys in 2020 that project as average or better given their roles: Lux (still TBD), May, Gonsolin, Gonzalez, Rios. They could all be Dodgers for the next 5 years. That’s a lot of value that is no longer counted as future assets in the farm.
I’ve read Votto prefers to have physical separation between where he plays and where he is from. Given his no trade clause, I doubt he ever plays in Toronto under his present contract.
I think free agents are where to improve team for 2021. Turner, LaMaheiu, Hand, Hendricks. One infielder and on reliever at least would be nice. Losing a draft pick for LaMaheiu isn’t ideal, but NOT trading from somewhat diminished farm would give the more promising guys a better chance to develop in a (hopefully more normal) minor league season in 2021.
They won’t all be stars, or even major leaguers. But to me it seems very valuable to have a minor leaguer close to majors in outfield, infield, catcher, and arms, to call up as a first line of depth instead of being forced into a trade. No more Carlos Santana for Casey Blake type deals please (most likely McCheap to thank for that).
Maybe LA needs Padres to be a force to not let them get complacent. LA is still strong, and their window is open for at least the next few years. I believe quality competition is beneficial.
I forgot to post this that someone wrote in a chat, I really liked it !!
”I love seeing padres thread and the common trend is “dodgers should be scared” “they won’t win a ring in a non shortened season” all while missing the basic point. The dodgers live rent free in almost everyone’s head in the nl west and for good reason, you can use weak retorts like “they always choke” “they always buy chips” much to the dismay that padres are doing the exact same things as dodgers yet get no flak. Padres will never be dodgers sorry to burst your bubbles. Padres improved but dodgers were in a class of there own last year and likely for years to come. All this comes with the territory of being top dog in the west, all you sad padres stans just further prove the point, you mention us in your own threads and try to insight a rivalry when there has been one (padres are bottomfeeders outside of last years shortened season) 13 winning seasons in 65 years 2 ws appearance losses says it all! Just know we don’t care about you guys, but I will say thank you to friar faithful for allowing petco to be Chavez ravine south every season.”
Well it is New Years Eve. Back in the day I would be getting my gear ready to go play a gig on New Years Eve. I quit drinking years ago, so that would not be part of the night. I would people watch a lot on those occasions, and there were some really fun nights. The band would always be besieged by boozed up women at midnight trying to plant a sloppy one on you. Luckily, some were sober so the experience was not nearly as frightening. But this year, I will retire early and let one of the worst years in history slip off into the night. Yet, it was a good year too. The monkey is off of the Dodgers back. The Lakers won their first since the days of Kobe. It started off bad enough with Kobe dying in a helicopter accident. We lost a lot of talented people this year. But we also lost a lot of our fellow American’s to a virus that no one really understands. We have gone through political turmoil that still has not ended. Some of us lost close personal friends this year, and some of us made new ones. We have all striven to keep our heads above water and survive the chaos. We have fought the boredom, at least those of us who do not work anymore, the inability to live as freely as we would like. And what draws all of us together on this site is a kids game played by adults. It is a passion we all share for a team that we all have grown to love. We do not always agree about which direction that team should take, but we all agree that we love the Dodgers. It is fitting that the best pitcher I ever saw turned 85 yesterday, the Left Arm of God, Sandy Koufax was the first HOF Dodger I got to watch in all of his great seasons. Happy Birthday Sandy. The memories I have of watching you do your thing will never be forgotten. I wish all of the writers and posters, and those who just come by to see what we are talking about, A Very Happy New Year! Let us all hope 2021 proves to be a much better year than 2020. I wish all of you good health and also happiness. That should be a primary ingredient of everyone’s life, especially those who are quote, over the hill and headed down the slope. Be well all.
Well said, and a very happy healthy new year to all.
I’m quitting drinking.
Tomorrow.
Yeah, very strange year. Two championships for LA fans but it hasn’t been easy to feel great about it as the headlines for months have been distressing to say the least. I look forward to a better year but not expect to get better quickly.
Stand pat never happens but I get the gist. Our starting lineup should look mostly the same as will the rotation. I’m assuming Price and Lux step right in. I know what happened with Price, am not sure what happened to Lux but I’m still a believer in him. I’d play him every day and hit him at bottom order until he shows he belongs in the middle, where I think he will end up, if not here then somewhere else. His performance this year, in my opinion, should be ignored. I would also seriously consider Ruiz splitting time with Smith.
“The Left Arm of God”
There was never a more appropriate moniker!
I could not have stated it better if I tried. Thank you!!!
Happy New Year 2021 to all my DodgerTalk friends. May it be a better year for all of you and a healthy one.
May you have the gladness of the season
Which is hope;
The spirit of the season
Which is peace;
And the heart of the season
Which is love.
-Ada V. Hendricks
Happy New Year DodgerBlueMom
May I add:
The breath of the season
which is health:
The Joy of the season,
which is Dodgers.
Yes, so true.
Great name.
Happy New Year DBM.
The Dodgers could stand pat with the relievers they currently have and use Urias as needed in the playoffs to close games. I also think one or more of the scrap pile signings will come through in the playoffs and before.
I have a lot of confidence in Seager and Betts and not a lot of confidence in Bellinger and Muncy. Turner could always be counted on but for how many more years? He might leave so he is even a bigger question mark. Pollock has given the Dodgers one short season and little else.
Realmuto, Springer, LeMahieu would provide the Dodgers with sure things and all hit from the right side.
I really like the Dodger rotation.
The Dodgers will repeat, right?
If God is willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
Cassidy mentioned something above, re. the playoff successes of Kike, Joc (and of course JT). Badger has also mentioned he doesn’t make wholesale changes (except for Lindor, of course)
I look at our team as, barring major injuries, a 98-105 win team (or that type of winning % if 2021 doesn’t give us 162 games) Which means, after the season is over, we’re playing in the postseason. Therefore, unlike most teams, we basically construct our team in April, then July, then September, for 2 seasons: the 162 game grind, and then the October sprint. As we all very well know, a 162 game success doesn’t equal the October success. The construction of the team to get to October is different than the one that goes out in October and tries to get the ring.
So we keep talking about getting guys that can get us to October. But rarely do we consider, and in my mind we should obviously consider, if those players will get us THRU October. Everyone wants to underpay JT because he may not last 162 games, or he’s in decline, or whatever. In my mind, JT will earn his salary in October where he has been by far our best October hitter this last 8 years. JT batting 3rd in October is way more important than wondering how many games JT can give us in the regular season. In my mind, we must resign JT, and rest him as often as we can, via the DH or via Edwin Rios playing 40% of the time at 3b. Who cares what our combine WAR at 3b is in 2021 as compared to other teams. This team is good enough to get to October where JT’s WAR is better than most anyone else in October.
If we want guys that can get us to October, fine. But we already have that. We need to make a major move only for the purpose of getting thru October. That is JT. That is a playoff game starter (which we can determine at the trade deadline if it’s needed or not). That perhaps is a guy who can get big outs against the big hitters in a crucial game 4.
In my mind, we have a deep starting staff that can give us quality innings thru 162 games. We have a deep bullpen that most likely will have a top 5 ERA in the NL. What we don’t have is that dominant back end of the pen guy. That guy will help us win those 100 games in the regular season, and SHOULD help us win big games in Oct. Go get that impact bullpen arm. We’re built for the long haul. With JT (and even Joc), we’re almost built for the short Octuber haul too.
We need a few tweaks, not massive or major changes. Keep this train going for the next decade. Don’t trade all the kids for veterans just to look good now. The farm may be at the lowest it’s been over the last 6-8 years. We need to keep the impact kids and add to them, not trade them away.
Now, I think it’s time to open up a bottle of Baileys and toast to City of Champions!
Damn, I miss Bailey’s – I have laid off dairy!
Good points Bobby. I think both Joc and JT wanted three year contracts and Friedman didn’t want to dis them by offering one year contracts. Instead, if both players can’t get from other teams what they wanted, they will be happy campers to re-sign with the Dodgers for one year with player options for a second year if they get enough at bats. That scenario might be more plausible if the National League keeps the DH.
Bobby, would a Laker championship have been more enjoyable if it were won by Randle, Ball, Ingram, Hart, Kuzma, and McGee?
If the Laker title was led by a Ball, Russell, Randle, Ingram, Kuzma, Hart, Nance, Clarkson, Zubac etc group? I think so, because we watched that group grow from the very bottom post-Kobe and rebuild it with our own draft picks to win a ring. Watching players on your team get better and better is half the fun of being sports fan.
That would have meant that ownership mostly made the correct draft picks and had stars in Ball/Russell/Ingram. It’s always fun when it’s your own guys that win it.
I have both Laker and Dodger season tickets. I love both teams equally. I have a damn mask that has both Lakers and Dodger logos on it. I’ve ordered a hat that has both team logos and “Champs” on it. But I always said this year, a Dodger title, because of how long it’s been and how close we’ve been lately and because it’s with our guys (Kersh, Kenley, JT, Joc, etc), would mean more than a Laker title (with so many new guys, even with Kuz and the mega-superstar Lebron).
But, we got both titles, so I guess 2020 wasn’t so bad after all….
I feel the same way.
Totally agree with you Bobby about Turner. We are good enough to make the playoffs but we need turner in the playoffs. If we don’t resign him we must get another October player. Turner is not only a stud in October but is a feisty leader. He is regressing a bit for a full season but in the playoffs he was very good on both sides of the ball. He will not last forever but I think he has a couple of good years left. Third is the most critical decision AF has to make. So sign him please.
If LeMahieu is interested he would be on my list. The Dodgers could fall quickly if they let turner and seager get away in the next couple of years. I don’t think the closer is as pressing until the playoffs. Once again we need an October fix which could be Urias or May.
You can make a solid argument that if JT is not on the LAD team in 2020, they do not get past the Braves. There is no question about his value as a postseason player. But it all comes down to JT has one last shot at getting that multi year deal, and he is going to explore it as much as he can. There are about 4-5 teams that have said they have real interest in him, but none have said for a three year deal. Nationals want him if he accepts Howie Kendrick’s type one year deals. Atlanta wants him if he would accept a one year deal like Ozuna and Donaldson before him. NYM, but they have bigger fish to catch. The one plausible team that will overpay to get their player is Toronto. They could use JT to move Vlad Jr to 1B and then go after Springer or Bauer. They gave Ryu 4 years when nobody else even considered it. I am not sure how many other teams are interested in a 36 year old 3B on a 3 year deal, when those teams are not looking for a placeholder for the playoffs. The Dodgers will give him two years, but not three, unless he is willing to accept Chase Utley money the last year. The Dodgers signed Utley to a two year deal knowing he would only play one and cut the AAV in half. Could the Dodgers offer JT 3 years at $20MM instead of 2 at $18MM?
Fans are often looking at what the Dodgers FO should do. But what we fans need also to look at is what does JT want to do. If he has to have three years and he finds the one team that will give it to him, he is gone. If he wants to end his career in LA, the Dodgers will be fair. They always have been.
Agreed, but the Dodgers better find a replacement for turner if he leaves. It may not be at third base but another quality true professional will be needed. I don’t think they have the horsepower to just absorb his loss without a replacement. We could still make the playoffs but mb lose the division with San Diego lurking. But, in October we will need a professional hitter to go back to back. Players can be great all year long but in October many are absent. Seager was phenomenal this year but not before, Betts was good, muncy good, joctober, but turner was the guy who has been good year after year. Nobody last forever but hopefully he will choose the Dodgers as he is not likely to win in Toronto..
I am celebrating with some Butterscotch Schnaps Tasty stuff, and keeps me from drinking too much. I just realized there won’t be a Rose Parade tomorrow…that sucks.
https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/rose-parade-2021-special-covid-coronavirus-1234876704/
Still sucks and not the same…
I am having a vanilla gelato Root Beer float.
cheers!
Butterscotch Schnapps, that sounds intriguing. You don’t have to drink too much cuz it’s 100 proof! I’ll probably have a couple of Zywiec, my new favorite beer, then dip into the Red Breast 12 bottle that I’m currently working on. Pass out watching Star Wars Episode 5. We’ve done 1,2,3 Rouge One, 4 already during covid-cation.
Butterscotch Schnaps is the bomb
Shouldn’t that be Rogue One? Rouge is a lipstick.
So much to analyze & digest the last 2 weeks… Surely will keep me busy…
Happy New Years to all the LADT folks and Dodger fans…
I don’t know if I’ll see the ball drop, but God Bless you Dick Clark wherever you are!!!
XX & w.u.
It’s not the same without Dick Clark! That was a big part of my life.
Funny story:
I went into a Liquor Store tonight with my Indiana Jones hat (I wear it when it is cold and/or snowing). As I am checking out, this painter/drywall guy (paint or spackle all over his clothes), says” Hey Indiana Jones guy, that’s an ugly hat.” I turned around and smiled and said, “Yeah, but I can take it off – you are stuck with that face!” It provoked an uproar of laughter, but he was silent (part of the reason I carry a gun – sometimes I can’t help myself).
Yep, that is smart. My favorite is don’t let your eagle mouth overload your hummingbird ass. And I would say that when I wasn’t packing. Now, I just keep my mouth shut. Or not. Sometimes I say to myself, what would LJG do. Leroy Jethro Gibbs.
Here you go guys. A study shows that a certain gene passed down from Neanderthal’s helps protect against Covid. And especially against the new strain in the UK. Sufficient doses of this gene could help combat the disease…Mark, you and I could be donors! LOL.
So I am a Neanderthal now? I resemble that statement!
I think it’s a cool hat. But it isn’t needed. The head that hat is sitting on is so big the body under it doesn’t get wet when it rains. Seriously, just how big is your pillow?
You gonna shoot me now?
Happy New Year everyone.
That is a mini hat. My Stetson Big Country, 7 inch crown, 5 inch brim, makes that thing look like a beanie! And Mark, I said you and I could be donors. And yes, you do look a little cavemanish.
Happy New Years My friend. I use a body pillow..those things are comfy. I also have an original Indiana Jones hat. Has the pin and everything. And I have a John Wayne model too. Weapon of choice this time of year is my 9MM Smith and Wesson. Compact, and powerful. Pretty accurate too.
Hey Watford, How many Neanderthals do they have in the UK? Enough to give genes to everyone?? LOL…Have a happy New Year in the Mother country.
`Happy New Year everyone from the west coast of Florida.
Happy New Year Richie from the Rockies.
Well howdy do dee. I just checked my acct, and my stimuli check came in. Amazing, first time I have ever seen the IRS do anything with any amount of speed…unless they are coming after your money.
Good morning.
I ended the year with an insult, it was meant in good fun, so I’d like to begin the year with a compliment………
I’ll need a moment.
I for one am happy that hopefully it got to the ones that really needed it… Now UI, that’s another thing… I got 3 grandkids unemployed (no not from White Castle) and it’s damn rough because they just want their jobs back…
$600 vs. $1200 now that’s tougher than staring down a $100 Nassau putt…
Watford my man, I’m hoping you had a good one… I mentioned in an earlier post that I hope you and I can get together for a lil 301 or 501 when you get here… One of the things I pulled out of the attic was my bristle board and my trusty darts… I didn’t know how much I enjoyed the game… I don’t miss the beer though…
Draft picks in MLB are overrated. Especially when out of the top 10-15. Too much uncertainty.
The examples given with Trout and others do not hold much water IMHO. What makes the author think that the team that gave up the pick would have drafted exactly that player ?
If I would run a team I´d much rather sign a free agent with draft compensation then give up blue chip prospects who already have proven them in the minor leagues at least.
Having said that here is what I would do if I am the Dodgers and serious about a repeat WS championship:
Sign Trevor Bauer for his desired one year contract.
Trade for Suarez to shore up 3b and bring in the desired right hand bat.
Sign Hendriks or Hand or Rosenthal to give you an option at closer should KJ falter.
Those move proably take the Dodgers over the luxury cap but it gives you a great shot at repeating .
The good thing: By going that route you still have cap flexibility after the 2021 season with huge contracts like Kelly, Jansen and the one year contract of Bauer coming off the books.
Happy new year to everybody!!!
go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!