Andrew Friedman’s Ten Commandments

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1. I like your concept of these 10 Commandments. A good GM has to have a strategy other than ” do whatever you can afford to improve this years team”.
   Besides resigning JT the Dodgers need a guy to fill a role like David Freese did. Right handed bat to play some 1st, 3rd and OF. Negotiations for trades take time and AF keeps them under the radar but I believe he’s in multiple discussions not only for that player but also for more bullpen help.

2. Fantastic article Mark. On paper, the Padres definitely improved their team yesterday. From personal experience we know that Darvish can be wildly inconsistent and has trouble in high pressure situations. Snell had that outstanding game 6 against us in the World Series and many have based their opinion of him on that outing. I agree with Bear in that he is a solid #2/3, but is not an ace. He’s not consistently lights out (like Kershaw in his prime). Not even close. Throw out last year where he only pitched 50 innings, he has had only one season where is has won more games than lost. That was his Cy Young season where he only pitched 180 innings and averaged 5.8 innings per start. He may have won the CY that year, but that is not an “ace” worthy effort in my mind. Without the Rays having a strong BP the results wouldn’t have been what they were. And with Kim, it’s hard to get excited about most likely a utility player. And, what about their BP? That could be a major issue for SD. So, enough about the Padres’ acquisitions. Like I said looks good on paper, but they play the game on the field. Let’s see what happens.

   Mark, I like the trade idea with the Reds for Gray and Suarez. It’s been mentioned before and I think it’s a solid move for the Dodgers. It gives us continued power at 3B (actually improved) and depth in our rotation. It would allow AF to have May and Gonsolin in the BP and available for the rotation when a starter gets injured (which will happen). Many say that we have plenty of starting pitching and we might…until we don’t. We have the prospects to make this happen and it’s not a budget buster. I say do it. If the DH is available in 2021 then another move could be Nelson Cruz. He seems to be ageless and can’t stop hitting 40+ HRs a year. Mark, I like your projected lineup. Your concern with the possible lack of power from Taylor/McKinstry is no big deal when you look at the rest of the lineup. They might get 15-20 HRs from that position which still very good.

   So, I guess we’ll have to wait until 2021 to get any action from AF, but that’s OK. It’s going to be fun and interesting on what he does to improve the team.

   1. No. Snell is not consistently lights out like Kershaw in his prime. That would mean he’s a shoe in for the Hall of Fame. That’s not a really fair comparison.

      What Snell is, is a more accomplished pitcher than Walker Buehler. He easily won the Cy Young in 2018. Was injured in 19 and didn’t fully get his feel back until the latter half of this season, when he really started to turn it on. He’s more than a #2 or #3. He’s a stud. He’s under 30, and he’s cheap for the next couple of years.

      I’ve mocked Preller for the Kemp trade, but I think he’s pulled off something big with these moves. He’s unloaded from the farm, which is a position of strength, but he’s managed to keep the best parts of it, namely Mackenzie Gore, who slots to be another potential stud starting pitcher within the next few years and would fill in when Clevinger and Darvish leave. The Padres have set themselves up to have 3-5 year window where they will be an elite team.

      Don’t knock the Korean kid, either. Even if he’s not an all-star caliber player, I don’t think that’s the expectation. I think the Padres see him as more of a super utility guy, giving them flexibility to insert him in different positions and play matchups more.

      1. Snell has had one good year out of five. And he has a losing record in 3 of his 5 seasons. He is a good pitcher. But he is prone to giving up HR’s. Give Buehler a couple more years and he will be as good if not better than Snell. It is a great addition for the Pads, but a pitcher is not great until they repeat repeat repeat. Snell has not done that.

         1. I have a feeling Buehler is going to blow out his arm again before he’s 30. Right now he relies on throwing hard. That, and I don’t know that he brings a great work ethic to the offseason. He came into 2020 unprepared. You can rely on raw talent and youth for only a small window before you get older, lose a tick on your fastball or the body just starts to break down unless you spend the time in the offseason keeping it strong. As Kershaw winds down the Dodgers are more and more reliant on Buehler. If he goes down, so does the chance of a dynasty.

            1. OK. here we can agree dodgerpatch. Good analysis. I don’t know if he will blow his arm out by 30, but it wouldn’t surprise me. His built and style are similar to Tim Lincecum so his history may be what Buehler has to look forward to. I think Walker has a good work ethic, but may spend too much time on fine tuning his technique unnecessarily. Similar to how Bauer approaches pitching. With what happened at the beginning of 2020 I had a feeling Walker didn’t think there would be a season after they stopped spring training and he came into the season totally unprepared like you said. Although, he seems to have slow starts every year. I think previously it was due to injuries. He has a cocky, nonchalant attitude and that might get in his way as well.

            2. Gut feelings do not count for much in the world of baseball. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. But the point remains the Dodgers will do what they have to do to stay competitive. Dynasty? No such thing anymore. Since the Yanks won consecutive titles back in the late 90’s, no team has repeated. Buehler is not the only pitcher in the organization who has ace like stuff. May could be that kind of pitcher and so can Urias. Snell has had one good year out of 5. Buehler with one less year of experience is 3 games over 500 better than Snell, Had he not won 21 games in 18, Snell would be closer to a .500 pitcher. Buehler’s WHIP is better, 1.028 to 1.237, and his strikeout to walk ratio is better to at 4-1. Snell is already injury prone. Buehler, if they get his blister problem solved, projects a better ERA, one less win and a better K to BB ratio. Only time will tell if Snell makes a huge difference. Right now, I take Buehler over him any day.

            3. Yeah, I see the cockiness. It’s good to be competitive, but being at the top of your game as a professional baseball player means you have to have emotional maturity. It means you have to prepare. It means you have to rely on more than just your stuff. He dominated that World Series game because he and Barnes just decided to let it rip and have him throw it by everyone. It was successful, but he won’t be able to do that in three years. He will have to refine his approach.

         2. Patch, he pitches for the Dodgers. He will adapt and over come. His coaches will help the process. This was Prior’s first year as pitching coach so he was not going to say too much. As he and Buehler get comfortable with each other he will also become his teacher, and since he was the same kind of pitcher and did ruin his arm, his advice will be valuable. Lux did the same thing, reported late and was not ready. It won’t happen again,

      2. Apparently, our definition of an ace or stud pitcher are vastly different. A pitcher who is considered an ace has usually been outstanding consistently for several years and logic would assume that he might be hall of fame worthy. Hence the mention of Kershaw. Snell is not that and I don’t think he ever will be. That’s just my projection. And, I never mentioned Walker Buehler as being an ace. But he might well be one day. As can Snell. In game 6 Snell was lights out. An absolutely dominating performance, but for only 5.1 innings. Obviously, his manager and the front office determined that he wasn’t capable of pitching through the sixth inning. Yeah, he was an ace for 5.1 innings only allowing two hits and walking none. A #1 or ace would have been given the opportunity to continue pitching. How many times have you watched Snell pitch?
         Year GS IP Won Loss ERA Whip
         2016 19 89 6 8 3.54 1.62
         2017 24 129 5 7 4.04 1.33
         2018 31 180 21 5 1.89 .97
         2019 23 107 6 8 4.29 1.27
         2020 11 50 4 2 3.24 1.24

         These are Snell’s career stats. If you consider them ace or stud quality then your standards may be pitifully low. Have injuries hampered him? Yes, but that’s part of the gig. Availability is a quality a #1 or ace should have. If anything he’s an underachiever. Kind of like Buehler at this point in his career.

         I’m confused on your analysis of my analysis of Kim. I mentioned that let’s not get too excited about a most likely utility player. That wasn’t a knock on him. Hell, you even called him a “super” utility player. Sorry, for the lack of an adjective to match your enthusiasm. I never mentioned that expectations were for him to be a All Star. After all, he’s most likely to be a super utility player. Whatever he becomes he was a good signing at a reasonable cost. A game changer? I doubt it.

         And, I do appreciate your response dodgerpatch. It’s fascinating to have two people look at the same situation and have such a different opinion. That’s what makes this blog so interesting.

         1. My Kim response was more directed at Mark’s opinion in the article. He wasn’t very impressed with that signing.

            Snell was just hitting his prime in 2018, was injured in 2019 and, by his own admission, didn’t really start to feel back to his normal self until the end of 20. You can’t judge a career when it has barely gotten started.

            No, I haven’t watched Snell pitch. I’m just some random guy on the internet with an opinion. I don’t know shit. However, I think you and Bear knock him for being a 5 inning pitcher. That’s the Ray’s philosophy, not an indictment of his stamina. That’s just the way the game is played today. The Rays just practice a more rigid version of what most every team does.

            1. Snell regularly hits the 90 – 100 pitch mark by the end of the 5th inning. That isn’t organizational philosophy. Maeda was regularly in the 85 – 90 pitch mark through 6 and the Dodgers thought that wasn’t good enough to guarantee him a rotation spot, so they traded him. Maeda is a workhorse compared to Snell and if you take out Snell’s Cy Young year, they are very similar in terms of ERA and IP. So, did the Padres get the Cy Young Blake Snell, or did they get Kenta Maeda or Drew Smyly?

            2. The Rays’ organizational philosophy is making sure a SP doesn’t see the lineup a 3rd time. Snell was cruising in game 6 of the WS and was pulled after 5.1 innings having thrown 73 pitches. It’s what the Rays do.

               You’re comparing Snell to Kenta Meada?

3. I think Nr. 5 should be scratched from the list.
   If you can sign a proven MLB star or superstar via free agency you should not think one second about the draft pick it will cost you. Draftees are never ever a sure thing, matter of fact most of them never pan out let alone become superstars.

   I do not like a trade for Sonny Gray. If you want to strengthen the rotation think and act big (hey, we are THE DODGERS) and go for Trevor Bauer on a one year contract as he reportedly is looking for from a true contender .
   If you do not like to give up a draft pick for a free agent star why give up a good prospect (and the Reds will look for one or two for Gray) for a mid rotation pitcher ? If you dont go for Trevor Bauer. I would rather see May in the rotation then someone like Gray. Suarez is a different story. He would make a ton of sense but it will cost a heavy price and if that price tag should include May I would decline.

   Overall the Dodgers will have to improve their roster if they want to keep their lead on the Padres and stay ahead of the Braves. Staying pad will not be enough.

   Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

4. I really like that lineup, but would like it better with Lux at second. Let’s see if AF can substitute Hoese or Busch, we don’t need Gray and there’s no point signing JT if you have a 3B stud. Also, let’s just go ahead and stop putting a “/” next to Pollock.

5. Well Mark, you put a lot of thought into this piece. Fun read.

   Absolutely no one should sit on their laurels, the Dodgers included. Change, if done right, can be a positive. That said, I’m not sure what the Dodgers should do moving forward. I would have liked to see them trade for Blake Snell, just saw him as a potential difference maker. Oh well.

   That’s what we’re really looking for, isn’t it? As it stands now, the Dodgers can put an incredibly good team on the field with some exceptional starting pitching and some young arms capable of rising to the next level. I can see Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and Dustin May doing just that in 2021. Urias has already made that jump.

   So what about David Price. Not certain why he sat out, underlying health condition? Family concerns? Not sure what he will be if he plays. Seems likely, but … Dave Roberts indicated that wasn’t a certainty. If he does play, he could be very good or inconsistent, bordering on mediocre. I’m thinking he helps. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him opt out again. Obviously Friedman has a better idea of what will happen, but I’m sure he was surprised with the opt out last season.

   I agree with the 10 commandments as listed. The Achilles Heal was international and the Dodgers learned quickly that throwing money at it didn’t solve much. They seem to be more focused and approaching it differently now.

   I’m not sure the college versus high school stuff works. Better to just pursue opportunity. You can find success with both.

   You could be right that Suarez and Gray is the right move, maybe I’m not being logical, but I really like Justin Turner. If he wasn’t there I would feel like something was missing. I still think the bullpen is the biggest opportunity for improvement. Lot of potential on the market.

   What I really would like to see is the Dodgers ink Seager long term. Probably not the smart thing to do at the moment. Better to wait and simply outbid everybody else after next season.

   Again, an excellent write-up Mark.

6. Excellent article Mark. But like all of the commandments, some will be broken. I think the owners and FO will look at what SD did, analyze it, and then form a plan. Does Friedman even feel he needs to make a counter move. I am more of the mind that AF will address what he feels are the needs of the team. And we all know what they are. RH power, back end of the pen, and actually a good RH bat off of the bench. Also, I do not rate Raley as high as you do. It would be quite a leap for him to make the 26 man roster in a platoon role. Pollock tied for the team lead in homers in a 60 game season. I think he has enough pop out there to counter any LH hitter they use. The roster right now is sitting at 37, with one spot that will open when they can place Ferguson on the IL. There are 9 left handed hitters on the roster, well one of them, Ruiz , is a switch hitter. All of the infielders on the roster are lefty hitters since they list Taylor as an outfielder. I also think Zack Reks has as much of a chance to crack the roster as Raley. But that is just me. The period between now and spring training is going to be interesting. I would not put it past AF to analyze this, and then make a block buster of his own.

7. We have two very brave pitt bulls for October, two guys that become Orel and Koufax in October, they are Buehler and Julio, two very difficult guys to beat when the lights are brightest, no MLB team has that, they will be very difficult to overcome, they will be a headache for the rest of MLB in October, they will continue to give us many joys.
   I hope Freidman builds a strong bullpen so there is no need to bring Julio all over the place in October, he has to be a starter and form a fearsome October pairing with Buehler.
   For the Dodgers nothing has changed, they in their own way, they should continue looking for their right bat and strengthen the bullpen and already on the date of changes add whatever is necessary, I am a fan of Luis “la piedra” Castillo and I I wish it was a Dodger.

8. Sonny Gray isn’t bad at all. He’s also not great at all. He’d be a nice #4 or a great 5 (or a 3 on an average team). But not someone you’d be happy about starting in October.

   If you tell me that in 2021, Sonny Gray and Tony Gonsolin will get the same number of starts, I’d bet that Gonsolin puts up better numbers. And is way cheaper. There is absolutely zero reason or need for Sonny Gray to be on this team. He just is not needed. We have younger, more talented guys who deserve the 4 or 5 spot in May and Gonsolin. No need for them to be blocked by a Sonny Gray type.

9. My rationale in taking Sonny Gray is two-fold. The Reds want to cut salary and Gray does that and allows the Dodgers to include fewer prospects. It also strengthens the bullpen with another live arm there.

   1. Exactly. Gray becomes a 4/5 starter. Strengthens the BP with May/Urias and Gonsolin, but allows them to be available to start if when necessary. It gives the Dodgers the flexibility that they like. Your trade reasoning is right on. Not all our prospects are going to play for the Dodgers. Their value is in their tradability for proven major leaguers that can help us now. It’s not like the international market, the draft, and free agency is closed to us in the future. Make the trade AF.

10. Fantastic article Mark!
    The Suarez/Gray trade is a good fit for the Dodgers in that it solves the 3B/RHB need and provides quality starting pitching for about $20 million per year. And each player is under team control for at least 3 years. However, I would not give up Lux as in my view he still has huge upside. In the 2020 disjointed season, it is very difficult to assess player performance. Sure Lux struggled, but so did many players including Suarez who had batting average of .202 in 2020. At the beginning of 2020 season, Fangraphs had Lux as the second best prospect in the entire MLB. He did not forget how to play baseball in the last 9 months! He was likely impacted by the four month layoff and a reported Covid delay in his return. In my view, Lux has a chance to be an all star middle infielder with athleticism and power that are rare for a player who just turned 23.
    Given the recent salary dumping trades by the Reds, Rays and the Cubs, there are likely to be many teams looking to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds would likely be willing to part with Suarez contract for mid level prospects, and the Cubs would likely trade Bryant primarily for just the $19 million salary relief. Both struggled last year, but they each have tremendous power, and each had OPS over 900 in 2019.
    I would prefer to keep Lux, sign JT, and trade for either Suarez or Bryant. There should be plenty of at bats at either DH, 3B, LF, or 1B to play Bryant or Suarez. At this point Sonny Gray is more of an insurance policy that will require significant prospects. If necessary due to injury, a quality starter will be available at the trade deadline from teams looking to further reduce payroll.

11. Mark, you violate rule #8 by trading Lux. The key to sustained success of the franchise is to draft, develop and plug your top prospects into your lineup every year. That’s the key that keeps your payroll balanced and flexible. I will be shocked if Lux is traded. Verdugo was the exception to get the 2nd best player in the game and I don’t think he had the “Dodger attitude” to be a long term option.

12. Just think, if the Dodgers had managed to obtain Snell, we would not need to be concerned with the Padres possibly being better than the Dodgers. That would have been a preemptive move on our part, helping us, while keeping a very good pitcher away from our chief divisional rival. You don’t want to try to win a pennant from a Wild Card spot ,though of course it has been done. You don’t want to go into a playoff series where the other team may have a better pitching staff than you do. The one thing the Dodgers almost always had in their various pennant runs, was superior pitching. But by consistently refusing to add a top pitcher from another team, they have ended up depending on their farm system to make it up. Yes, we do have Price, but I think he was simply a necessary part of the trade to get Betts, as Boston wanted to dump his salary.

    I have wanted for the Dodgers to be more proactive. They may make a move or two, but what pitcher is out there that we want? Bauer, but most here insist that we are not spending that money. Snell was already locked into his salary. The Padres wanted him, they went out and got him. They also managed to pick up Darvish, not that I wanted him, but he always has the potential to have a big year. I don’t see what the risk to the Dodgers was in trying hard to acquire Snell, other than that they absolutely hate to give up any top ten prospects in their system. This is the main reason that we have not been able to consummate such trades. Sometimes it turns out to b e warranted, but we sometimes end up keeping a player who would have brought a good deal more when he was a touted prospect. Pederson is an example,and also consider what we might have gotten a year or two ago in a package which included Lux. But we will never trade our highest-end prospects, that seems to be a basic rule of this ownership. Some baseball person , maybe Theo Epstein, was quoted as saying, “prospects are just prospects.” We can disagree with the implications, but we don’t have to hoard every one of our top prospects, either. I don’t like the potential that the Padres will in two years have a decidedly better pitching staff than the Dodgers. What are the Dodgers going to do to upgrade their starting staff, if it becomes necessary? Well, maybe May and Urias will become great pitchers, and we will not have to.

    1. Sign Bauer and everything the Padres have done would be offset.
       Golden opporturnity for the Dodgers to do what they never done before: Repeat.
       Bauer plus one more bullpen arm and we are in prime position to do it.

       Pitching in the playoffs still is king. Saw it again this year.

       Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!

       1. I agree! But let’s see if they do it, or even explore it seriously.

13. With that line of thinking William I guess we would have to trade for Snell and sign Bauer, Springer, Reamulto and DJL so our competitors wont get better. AF’s eyes are on the Dodgers not the Padres. He won’t change his approach based on what other teams are doing. If Belly and Muncy return to 2019 form that will be our biggest improvement!

    1. No, just Snell. Obviously, we can’t get everyone, nor would we want to. But Snell would have helped us, and he will definitely help SD, who is obviously our major threat in the NL West, and one of the two, along with Atlanta, in the NL. You can’t always get someone you want, but I did not see anything indicating that we made any bids for Snell, Right now, it looks as if SD has some inexhaustible store of resources, where they can keep getting all the players they want. This can’t be the case, but it is amazing that they have gotten all these players in the last two years, and still have their top prospects.

       1. What makes you think that the Padres wouldn’t have gotten Bauer if we traded for Snell? I’m happy they got Snell and Darvish because they aren’t going to go sign Bauer now.

14. The Padres went on a shopping spree like I do when I’m a little drunk on Amazon. I buy stuff I don’t necessarily need, and sometimes find that the quality is lacking. Not so much where I send the item back, but much less enthusiastic about it when it arrives than I was when I made the purchase.

    All three of these “Blockbuster” moves have their warts. Darvish, just a year younger than David Price who was a throw in in the Mookie trade, is a toss-up with Price as far as the future holds. Do you think Darvish is all the sudden fixed after 12 starts in a short season? Or, will he be back to mediocrity as he was during his last several seasons? I have more faith in Price who owned us in the 18 World Series, now that he’s had the cyst removed from his wrist.

    Snell looked great against the Dodgers as most left handers do. Snell is entering his prime years at age 28 next season. Are the Padres going to pull him in the 6th each game, or is he going to be a top of the rotation innings eater after never doing so? Snell is a very good piece, but he’s not an Ace, not yet.

    Is Kim a utility guy or a starting first team second baseman? Jung-ho Kang was a splash with the Pirates for his first two years, then sucked, now he’s back in Korea. Kang was a better hitter in Korea than Kim. I have doubts that Kim is as good as Chris Taylor.

    Sure, there’s some upside here, but two of the guys they got would probably be ranked out of a starting job on the Dodgers. I’m not sure many of us would welcome Darvish back after his post-season meltdown against the Cheetos. And I wouldn’t block May or Urias for Snell. I think May, Urias and Snell are all around the same caliber pitcher with youth on Urias and May’s side. I would have been much more concerned had they signed DJLM and Trevor Bauer, a stud that averages 7 innings with a .795 WHIP last year playing in a band box.

    AF certainly has an opportunity to be pigs and relegate the Padres to yesterday’s new status if he’s motivated to do so. Hopefully, the Padres did just that. Go get Bauer and Bryant, or Nolan and make the Padres fans cry a little, like the red-headed step child on Christmas day…

15. Two best teams in baseball are probably in the NL West, and they ain’t the Giants, Rockies or Diamondbacks.

    Preller made some major moves without gutting the San Diego farm. Their window is wide open for at least the next three years given the quantity and quality of players under control for at least that duration. They still have arms coming up that could be upgrades too. No doubt NL West will be a dog fight.

    The 3 game sweep of the Padres in the division series will probably for shadow LA/SD games for the next few years: close and hard fought. That was when Padres didn’t have their best starters and without Snell and Darvish. So if future games are going to be similar, I hope Friedman makes a few more moves to bulk up the bull pen. The low risk/high reward fliers are fine to start, as they have born fruit in the past. But I’d be really happy if they signed both Hendricks and Hand.

    Turner may or may not be back. I doubt Pollack gets traded, so 3rd Base or maybe 2nd is where they could squeeze in a big bat. Chapman from Oakland or Suarez from Cincinnati should work well.

    Maybe they try a monster move with Cleveland:

    Lux, Ruiz, Gray, DJ Peters, Cody Thomas, Gerardo Carrillo

    For: Shane Bieber and Ramirez. Or take a prospect or two off and get Lindor.

    Very unlikely, but another Ace and stud left side infielder.

    Something will happen. The bullpen will change and another bat will come.

    I’d expect a big move at the trade deadline moreso than off-season. Maybe if Nationals are out they trade Scherzer…

    1. I think you are shortchanging teams like the Yankees and the White Sox who have improved a lot.

       1. Did I miss something? What did the Yankees do to improve?

          1. Yankee offense is as impressive as any in baseball, even without LeMahieu. Pitching, well that needs some work. The White Sox on the other hand also improving a very good team.

    2. There is no logical reason why Cleveland would include Bieber in a deal. He’s controllable for 4 more years and isn’t making any money. Carrasco is the guy they would consider moving but I really don’t think we need him.

       Ramirez? I’m all for that part of the trade. He could be used at third or second, is a switch hitter and would be a great asset. Would you be willing to give up Lux, Ruiz and Gray just for him? It might take that much. He’s only making $11MM/year for the next three years which is an absolute bargain. I’d start by offering Ruiz and Gray and maybe a lower level prospect.

       1. There is no logical reason why Cleveland would part with Bieber. He’s one of the few clear upgrades LA could try to pry loose to upgrade the rotation. Again, doubt it would work. Cleveland went for volume over quality when they traded Clevinger. My thought was combination up prospect pedigree and volume might get their interest.

          2/3 of Ruiz, Lux and Gray for Ramirez ought to be a start. Not all 3. Carrasco doesn’t seem like a clear upgrade either.

16. Sonny Gray was great with the small market A’s, then blah with the major market Yanks, then very good with the small market Reds. Not worth the gamble here in this market.

    Suarez would be a good acquisition but if you want to add a pitcher to that trade go hard after Luis Castillo who is 3 years younger than Gray, a much better pitcher and is making less money.

    1. Same could have been said about Greinke due to his bouts with anxiety.

17. Report on MLB radio by Vassegh says the Dodgers are talking with LeMahieu’s agents. And he is on their radar. One reporter put better than most, the Padres got two Quali8ty pitchers, How they pan out remains to be seen. The only in season action Snell has against the Dodgers came a few years ago and he pitched only 2 innings. Darvish also has only pitched in one regular season game against the Dodgers and he went 7 innings. Nobody has a clue how these two will pan out. We ALL have to wait and see.

    1. I absolutely agree that we do not know how good Snell or Darvish turn out to be. We do now that Snell was a 20 game winner, sub 2.00 ERA and CY winner in 2018, and that Darvish was #2 in CY for 2020. We also know that Snell is only 28, and has one of the nastiest sliders in all of MLB when he is on (as he was Game 6…ask Mookie, Seager, and JT).

       We also do not know if Kershaw’s back will hold up, whether Urias can make the transition to fulltime starter and sustain it over the entire season, whether David Price still has enough to be a solid #3 after not pitching for 1.5 years, whether May and/or Gonsolin are ready for a full season as starting pitchers. We can speculate that Walker Buehler will be mostly very good to dominant. But he is the only non question mark in the Dodgers rotation.

       1. I am not freaking out over what the Padres did. I am waiting to se if AF makes any counter moves. 2 pitchers who at times have been very good, and lately except for Darvish this year, been mediocre. I also think Darvish facing the same offenses as many times as he did gave him a better shot at beating them, Since he pitched in a mediocre division, and did not see the best hitters in the NL per se, it had an impact on his stats. Could be said for all the pitchers. And the hitters too. LaMehieu winning a batting title playing mostly AL east games is a little more impressive.

          1. I never freak out about what some other team does. And more importantly, AF does not either. AF has no control over what other teams do. I do not know what AF is going to do, but if he thinks he can still win with the bunch he has with JT at 3B and another reliver, and stay under the CBT, then he is not going to change his mind. If he thinks he can get DJLM on the cheap (relatively speaking), he is going to pursue it with vigor. It took 8 months to get Mookie, but he got him. I would be absolutely shocked if he agreed to 5 years $125MM for DJLM. But I would not be shocked if he signed him. While DJLM would not only replace JT on the field, he would replace him in the clubhouse. NYY players say that the quiet DJLM is the spirit and glue of that team. His locker is the most crowded and it is not because of his music or his joking. DJLM is Chase Utley for me. OTOH, signing Bauer would shock me. His personality is not going to play well with some others. I think his personality could clash with CK, Seager, Belli, Mookie. He has a great baseball IQ, and he works well with others when things go well. But showing off your manager by chucking the ball over the CF fence does not win many friends. Would I like for him to pitch for the Dodgers? Absolutely.

             I am not as concerned about Darvish as I am about Snell. I think you are underestimating how good Snell actually is. His slider last year was getting back to his 2018 level. His slider in Game 6 was unhittable. Don’t judge him based on what he did as a 23 year old on a team that went 68-94, and as a 24 year old on a team that went 80-82. He won the CY as a 25 year old, was hurt the next year, and 2020 was????? I still believe the Dodgers are favorites, but the gap has narrowed considerably. We will see if AF chooses to respond to widen the gap or sit back and see how things play out to the trade deadline. At least the Dodgers will have players that can be moved in July, while the Padres depth has been depleted. AF plays a waiting game, and does it better than anyone else.

             1. I get it Jeff, I really do, but I just think he is over rated. That is just my opinion of what I see. A lot of pitchers have won 20 and then never repeated that success. Can he be a bad ass at times? Yep. But he still gives up a lot of homers for the type of pitcher he is. And he throws way to many pitches most of the time, and that puts a strain on the pen. Personally I hope he wears SD’s pen out.

             2. That is why they play the games.

18. I like the discussion above on who is an Ace. I think, not including the 60 game sprint in 2020, it can be defined 2 ways:

    1) regular season ace, who gives u 200 innings, is an All Star, can stop a losing streak, and gives your bullpen a break when he starts.
    2) post season ace: who you give the ball to, and he’ll give you 6 dominant innings in October.

    Walker Buehler may not yet be a regular season ace, but for this team, who the hell cares. Come October, there isn’t another guy that I want on the mound. And for this team, we just need to get to October, and then we have as good a Game 1 starter as anybody. AND, after seeing the big game stuff from Urias in the big game moments, we might very well have a 2nd guy who you just know will give you Ace Stuff come October.

    1. I very much like your Ace definitions, with the exception that in today’s game it may have to drop to 180 innings. That is not because of the pitcher, but because that is how the game is now played. I know Dodgerrick. I do not like it anymore than you do. But that is where the game is going.

       I also agree with your assessment of Buehler and Urias. Buehler has been an Ace in the playoffs, and Urias has been a lockdown reliever in the playoffs. Urias now needs to take the next step and repeat the domination as a SP. My money says he can.

19. Dodgers get Clevinger, no not that one, Garrett Clevinger a LH reliever from the Phillies in a 3 way deal with the Rays. Phils getting Jose Alvarado from the Rays, and Rays getting Dillon Paulson and a PTBNL from LA. Not earth shattering. Clevinger has pitched just .2 innings in the majors. looks to be nothing more than a depth move.

    1. suck it Padres!!

       1. Ha ha great Bobby. Sarcasm, I love it.

20. DODGERS ACQUIRE LHP GARRETT CLEAVINGER

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired left-hander pitcher Garrett Cleavinger from the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-way exchange with Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Dodgers will send minor league infielder Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later or cash considerations to Tampa Bay, while the Rays will send left-handed pitcher José Alvarado to Philadelphia to complete the transaction.

    Cleavinger, 26, made his Major League debut last season for the Phillies, tossing 0.2 innings with one strikeout on September 17 against the Mets. In five minor league seasons with the Phillies, he posted a 19-12 record with a 4.08 ERA (100 ER/220.1 IP) and 294 strikeouts in 140 games. He spent all of 2019 with Double-A Reading, appearing in 34 games, striking out 83 batters in 51.2 innings, while recording a 3-2 record. He was originally drafted in the third round of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Oregon. In three seasons with the Ducks, he went 18-4 with a 1.94 ERA (25 ER/116.0 IP) and 172 strikeouts against 59 walks, including Freshman All-America honors after going 9-0 with a 1.24 ERA in 37 relief appearances.

    Paulson, 23, played in 175 minor league games for the Dodgers, batting a combined .253 (162-for-640) with 26 homers and 125 RBI. In 2019, he split the season between Low-A Great Lakes and High-A Rancho Cucamonga, batting .243 (101-for-416) with 16 homers and 64 RBI. He was originally drafted in the 13th round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Southern California.

    1. the K/ip ratio is fantastic. Once we fix him up he’ll become quite valuable for us.

       1. Could be, but he is not on the 40 man right now. Will most likely get a invite to spring.MY BAD, it is not Clevinger, but CLEAVENGER< like a meat cleaver.

    2. I am glad that my fellow Trojan Dillon Paulson is going to Tampa Bay. He is going to get a shot there. He would not get one in LA.

21. The Dodgers are not a top 5 farm system any longer. They have graduated too many and currently have only two in any top 100 prospect list: Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. And neither of them are in top 60. MiLB Pipeline has them regressed all the way to a dreaded #11, and it should decrease even more after the Preseason 2021 are published.

    2019 preseason rank #7
    2019 midseason rank #3
    2020 preseason rank #3
    2020 midseason rank #11

    Included as top 100 prospects to get the #11 ranking were Gavin Lux (#2), Josiah Gray (#71), Keibert Ruiz (#77), and Brusdar Graterol (#90). Lux and Graterol have both graduated leaving only Gray and Ruiz in the top 100.

    The same is true with Baseball America, except they did rank the Dodgers #5 because they also had Tony Gonsolin in the top 100. He too has graduated, leaving only Gray and Ruiz who are not top 50 candidates.

    When FanGraphs completes their organizational reviews, they will also have the Dodgers down to two in their top 100.

    Bottom line is that the Dodgers are now in the dreaded middle third of the farm systems. Not enough elite talent to draw from to become a star at the next level, and not low enough to get top draft picks.

    The Dodgers are now considered to have the #3 farm system in the NL West. SD and Arizona both have better ranked systems, and the Giants are coming fast. The top Dodger prospect is Gray who has a ceiling as a #3, but will likely become a #4 or #5, or a late inning reliever. That is a far cry from MacKenzie Gore who has ACE as his ceiling, and probably no worse than a #2. The Padres were ranked #2 overall with 5 top 100 prospects, and are now down to 4 (losing Patino), three in the top 50. I think I would take Snell over Patino. There is CJ Abrams as the #24 overall prospect and #5 SS. Luis Campusano is a higher rated catcher than Ruiz. He is the overall #46 prospect and #3 catcher. Ruiz has gone from as high as #3, down to #6 in the catcher rankings.

    The 2020 draft will help, but they have yet to take a professional AB or throw a professional pitch. By the time that Bobby Miller or Clayton Beeter or Michael Busch or Kody Hoese are ready to be considered for top 100 Gray will have graduated and Ruiz will either have graduated or been dropped as he has continually been doing. Diego Cartaya and Luis Rodriguez need to play. Rodriguez has still not taken a professional AB. At least one reputable publication (FanGraphs) does not consider Hoese to be a top 100 candidate, much less prospect. I have not seen enough of him, so I need to rely on the publications for their assessment. I think most publications think of Hoese as a DH. Most publications consider Busch to be closer to top 100 because of his hit tool and plate discipline, but still does not have a position, and has a grade 40 arm and 45 run. That is generally not top 100 candidates. Busch is going to need to play a significant number of games at 2B to be considered at the elite level.

    It always intrigues when I read when some fans are ready to give up on Lux after a poor 2020, but had far superior scouting grades, and are now ready to put Hoese in the lineup this year after all of 147 professional ABs. The same with Busch and all of his 24 professional ABs. Neither Hoese nor Busch (nor Miller not Beeter nor Amaya), will make the 26 man roster at any point in the season. If they do, the Dodgers will not be amongst the elite. Gray may make a start, but he is really #8 on SP list THIS year. Gonsolin and White are ahead of him. Maybe even Jimmy Nelson if he can make a comeback. That is not giving up on Gray, that is just saying he is not ready to be a ML starting pitcher in 2021. Ruiz will get called up in September, and will make the roster when Smith or Barnes goes to the IL. White will bounce back and forth depending on the number of pitchers that will need to be placed on the IL and whether any of Morrow, Nelson, or Pazos can make a comeback. You can be a big Mitch White fan, but that will not change White’s ceiling as a #4 or #5 starting pitcher on an average team; #6 or #7 on the Dodgers. Mitch White is finally healthy, and if he can get a full season at AAA this year as a starter, maybe he gets to that next level of a #3.

    I appreciate Dodger fans loving their prospects. I most certainly do!!! But you need to compare them to other organizations top prospects at the same position. I follow all of MiLB…from the DSL to AAA. I was writing about Alex Bregman before most Houston fans knew who he was. MiLB is a passion of mine, and as much as I would love to see every Dodger prospect become a Dodger regular, that just is not possible. THE FARM SYSTEM HAS DONE ITS JOB. Kershaw, Pederson, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Urias, Verdugo, Smith, Barnes (he was not a Dodger draft pick, but he was developed in the Dodger system), Rios, Beaty, May, Gonsolin, Ferguson, VGon, KJ, Baez, White, Santana, Sborz, McKinstry. How much more can you ask of a farm system…the core and depth.

    1. 2021 Farm System Rankings are going to be a crapshoot as few people outside of the players and coaches saw these prospects. I have heard glowing reports about Busch. Hoese, Miller, and Uceta. I have heard that Gray is improving by the minute and that Ruiz is starting to get comfortable with his new swing, but do we really know? No, we do not, so this will be a year for a lot of subjectivity on Prospects… We have no data!

       1. I’d agree with you, Mark. That’s why so many of these trades may make no sense, because “but that team didn’t get 1 or 2 of this team’s top 5 prospects in the deal!” But GM’s will trusts their scouts as to who the kids in each farm are that are worth obtaining, and NOT go by rankings that are likely outdated.

          IF minor league seasons do open on time, then I’d guess even the 2021 mid season rankings won’t be truly accurate. So we’ll just have to go by Friedman and Friends on who to keep and who trade away.

       2. Uceta was lights out yesterday. Guy has some serious stuff.

       3. You have heard the reports from Dodger personnel and scouts. Publications got their reports from the coaches at the site. So yes, Hoese, Busch, and Pepiot were the players that looked good at the secondary site amongst all other Dodger players. There is no comparison to how much Hoese or Busch have improved compared to those players who were already rated higher than Hoese and Busch before the season. Based on what criteria will make Busch and Hoese all of a sudden move to top 100? It is one thing to look comfortable in an instructional/ development environment and quite different in a game situation against real competition. Because of Busch’s hit skill, he has a better chance to get to the top 100. But he does not have a position. Scouting grades for both Busch and Hoese:

          Busch – 55 hit, 55 power, 45 run. 40 arm. 40 field, 50 overall. That does not translate into a top 100 player
          Hoese – 50 hit, 55 power, 40 run, 55 arm. 50 field, 50 overall. That does not translate into a top 100 player.

          A 50 overall ranking translates into an average everyday player. Absolutely noting wrong with that. That is what most of your roster is made of. But neither appear to have the current skill sets to move into the above average regular grade.

          Both are closer to becoming DH/1B than potential All Star 3B and 2B. Busch and Hoese may be good players, but they will not be elite.

22. Jeff, won’t those ratings change if the kids actually get a chance to play? Seems to me rating players when they played so little in 2020 is not productive. I know about Gore and some of the others. But you have to think that some of those kids the Dodgers have drafted will be rated higher when they can actually be seen playing. And the International kids they are supposed to get should help some too. A couple of those guys are rated pretty high.

    1. Top 100 Dodger Prospect Possibilities include Ruiz, Busch, Hoese, Gray, and Pages. It’s possible only 2 make it, but up to 5 could. I think it will be 3.

       1. Gray and Ruiz will be it. Neither Busch, Hoese, or Pages were considered top 100 before and they did not play last year to push themselves to the 55 value. Busch has 24 professional ABs and Hoese had 147. Pages has not played above rookie ball. You can play yourself out of the top 100, but it is harder to play yourself onto it if you were not there before. It takes a lot to move a 50 grade player to a 55 grade player. If you do not play, how do you improve your skill sets?

    2. They have to play to get rated higher. Hoese and Busch were not top 100 players before the 2020 season, and they did not play in 2020, so they are not going to move up. Miller and Beeter have not seen a professional game, and they were not in the top 15 of the draft. No outside scouts saw any of those guys at the secondary site. How can they be graded? Fangraphs is not a big fan of Hoese. They have him as a low end regular/platoon player. They do not have one position player rated higher than everyday average player, and that list totals 4…Keibert Ruiz/Michael Busch/Andy Pages/Jacob Amaya. The highest rated pitcher is Gray, and his grade of 55 puts him as a#3/#4 starter. Approximately 3.70 FIP along with 160 innings. I like JoJo Gray, but he is not a top of the rotation pitcher.

       You generally need to have an overall grade of 55 or more to make the top 100. The Dodgers have two, Gray and Ruiz at 55. For comparison, Wander Franco (overall #1) has a grade of 70. Andy Rutschman has a 65 grade as does MacKenzie Gore and Nate Pearson. There are 14 players with a grade of 60. The remainder of the top 100 have a 55 grade, but almost none have a below average grade for any skill (hit, power, run, field, and arm). Most catchers do have a below average run. Also for comparison, if my memory serves me correctly, Gavin Lux had a 70 grade.

       The two players with the best chance at making the top 100 by midseason would be Miller and Beeter. But not top 50. Miller has a 65 graded fastball, but there are several with an 80 grade fastball. Miller has only one other above average pitch and that is a 55 slider. But he can be nasty, and he needs competition to develop. Beeter has 3 pitches rated 60…fastball/curve/slider. He needs to pitch against real competition to see where he is at. Diego Cartaya may be close with a 60 arm, but his 35 grade run and 45 power will slide him down. He has a 55 hit and 55 field grade. If the Dodgers can get him to generate a little more power, he could make the list. Another dark horse longshot would be Andy Pages. His only below average grade is hit. When he does hit, he hits the ball hard…VERY HARD. He has a great arm (65), and has the power potential to be RF. Although he does have the ability to play CF. He has a very high baseball IQ. Once he learns, plate discipline and can demonstrate that skill above rookie ball, he should start to climb the rankings.

       1. In your experience and time watching the game, how often do those ratings translate into a star player? I have seen so many struggle who were beasts in the minors, and guys who were fringe players come from no where. Just wondering.

          1. It is far more prevalent for beasts in the minors to become busts. It is very rare for a so-so MiLB player to all of a sudden become a star. It does happen. Either you have a skill set or you do not. It is those who can develop the skill set they already have who make it. But if you do not have that skill set by the time you are drafted, it is hard to get that skill set in professional ball. It can be done, but it is rare. Accuracy and footwork can be worked on. But arm strength (skill set), not so much. How does the ball sound coming off the bat. Loud you have a skill set that can be developed with plate discipline. A player is not going to develop 70 run skill. There are the Jacob de Grom’s of the baseball world. But almost all top ML pitchers were high draft picks. It is much harder for college players to further develop as their growth and maturity have pretty much been exhausted. I think the Dodgers take more college players because of where they draft. If they were a top ten draft pick, I think you would see more HS players, as they could have some undiscovered skill set. College players have less questions, but also less room to grow.

             The international market is the biggest lottery in MLB. These are 16 year olds that you can never say will become stars or busts. They are kids, but still have skill sets. If you find a 16 year old who throws 95, he is getting signed. A couple of the Dodger international pitchers were in the 92-93 range when they signed. That bodes well. Scouts still uncover the talent. And the Dodgers have outstanding scouts. They just have a lousy draft position every year.

23. Did little research on Garrett Cleavinger and Baseball Prospectus says this:

    Funky lefty with a solid fastball that plays a bit above the raw material and a competent secondary. The movement in his delivery creates deception and difficult timing for hitters. It requires moderate effort, though he maintains his balance and repeats well, indicating potential for enough command and control to potentially play at higher levels. His pure stuff isn’t exceptional, but there’s enough deception that there’s potential for him to develop into a capable piece in a major league bullpen, with ability to get both LH and RH hitters out from the left side.

    He tops out at 94 MPH… allegedly!

24. As usual Jeff a fantastic look at what we have at the minor league level and how we compare to our competition. When you read in the final paragraph of all the players the Dodgers that have graduated to the big club it’s incredible. Eventually, the reduction in talent in the minors will catch up with the team. It just has too. Constantly drafting at the end of rounds doesn’t make it easy. I think where AF has failed big time in the past is in the international market. That seems to have vastly improved in the last 3 years. Looking around at MLB current rising stars many are from the international market. And, none were signed by the Dodgers. Unfortunately, AF spent over $100M+ on mentally disturbed, socially deficient, and lacking baseball skilled players from Cuba. But, that’s in the past. The international signings are where the Dodgers can continue feeding their player development system. I feel good about the pipeline being consistently replenished with talent by AF.

    1. I think it might be a bit unfair to grade AF on his international signings because of a very bad and costly 2016 signing class. But international drafts are generated years before they actually are drafted. These kids are followed at 12 and families are talked to by 14, placed in development camps, and they sign at 16. AF inherited the scouting reports on these international players. That was the mistake.

       Juan Soto, Vlad Jr. Tatis Jr., Christian Pache, Andres Gimenez, Jazz Chisholm, Deivi Garcia, Isaac Paredes were all taken in that draft. Also taken were Yusniel Diaz, Oneil Cruz, and Yordan Alvarez, all by the Dodgers. Gerardo Carrillo and Edwin Uceta were also part of that class. Robinson Ortiz was a late addition to that class (signed June 2017). The Dodgers still have Yadi Alvarez and Omar Estevez from that class.

       Because of that draft, the Dodgers were not able to participate much in the next two drafts. The next draft they were significant players in was the 2017/18 class. The Dodgers drafted Diego Cartaya, Alex De Jesus, Jerming Rosario, and Carlos Duran in that draft. Cartaya is a top 10 LAD prospect and De Jesus is a top 20. Once Rosario starts to pitch in the states, he should climb into the top 30 ranks.

       That was followed the next year by Luis Rodriguez, RHP Kristian Cardoza, catcher Yeiner Fernandez, slick fielding SS Darol Garcia, and another OF in Victor Sosa. None of these guys got to play last year, so they lost a year of formal development. Rodriguez could be a star in the making, and I am very much looking forward to following Cardoza. Rodriguez, Cardoza, and Fernandez all from Venezuela.

       The next draft will bring two of the top 8 international prospects to the Dodgers: SS Wilman Diaz and C Jesus Galiz. Both from Venezuela. Obviously the Dodgers Venezuelan scout is very well thought of.

       Diaz is a converted middle infielder who projects very well behind the plate. However Diaz could be the signing of the draft. He is very much compared to Fernando Tatis Jr at the same age. He has five tools, and should develop even more power. He will be very fun to watch in the DSL this year. He is someone who could be added to an Arizona Rookie League team towards the end of a season.

       AF needs the benefit of the doubt when it comes to international players. Even though he was President of Baseball Operations at the time, those were not his picks. Diego Cartaya’s class should be when he starts to get graded for his international players.

       1. Thanks for the explanation Jeff. Obviously, I was ignorant to how the international system actually works. AF appears to have the situation corrected and headed in the right direction. Hopefully, there will some exciting players coming along in the near future.

25. Haven’t written anything in a long time but I just wanted to commend everyone on this site for the excellence of this topic’s coverage. If there was ever any doubt about what is the best Dodger site on the internet, this article settles that argument once and for all, I love reading the diverse ideas expressed on LADT, even those with which I disagree. KUDOS and my appreciation to all of you. GO DODGERS 2021.

26. It’s nice to know someone agrees with me.

    This was written by Dodger Horse:
    “I hope Freidman builds a strong bullpen so there is no need to bring Julio all over the place in October, he has to be a starter and form a fearsome October pairing with Buehler.”

    like it or not Julio Urias bailed out/saved the bullpen’s ass in the 2020 playoffs.

    1. I love that he did! It’s all hands on deck in the playoffs.

27. How does anyone know who has a top minor league system? The lack of a minor league season pretty much means that such ratings are meaningless.

    1. Ir is all guesswork my friend. No one knows how these kids will perform under pressure. Just look how badly Lux played in 2020 coming off of a stellar 2019. Roster now at 39 with the addition of Kahnle and Cleavenger. 2 spots will open when Kahnle and Ferguson are placed on the IL. Could be more spots if anyone is DFA’d.

       1. Hi Michael – quick question

          Did Gavin Lux win a Ring for his contribution to our WS win?

          Also, was wondering if the Rockies might go into money saving mode now they have to get past SD & LA in the West, and a reasonable deal for Arenado might be in the offing?

          1. Not Michael, but they have not advertised the list for the rings yet. But there is virtually no chance that Gavin Lux will not receive a ring. He was on the roster during the season. My son got one in 2004 when he was called up a couple of times. He was not on the WS roster. Ferguson will get one. Terrance Gore will get one. Stripling will get one. Even though he was on the IL all season, I believe Jimmy Nelson will get one. Perhaps a different question is whether David Price gets one. I do not think I will have to go too far out on a limb to say, yes he will. If you played any part at all, you are going to get a ring. Now how much of a WS share they get is a different story.

             1. The Dodgers are being very generous with rings. Even the players who were stuck at USC all year are getting a ring. I now of one on the 40 man who hasn’t even made his MLB debut. He was fitted for his ring second week of December.

             2. Rings are not cheap, and organizations are very generous with their distribution. I think everyone on the 2004 Red Sox 40 man got one whether they played or not. They were considered on the roster. I know that the Red Sox went very elaborate for 2004, and I think I remember the ring costing around $35K (???). I am no judge of jewelry cost. I imagine this one for the Dodgers will be very elaborate as well.

          2. Jeff answered the Lux question, I will answer about Arenado. The longer this goes on, the worse it gets for the Rockies. And it is not about competing with the Dodgers or Padres. It is about the animosity that exists between Arenado and management. He has the Rockies over a barrel, He has a full no trade, so he can block and traded they make. He also has an opt out clause after next season. Now the Rocks can be stubborn and lose him and get nothing in return, or they can try to see to his wish to be traded, preferably to LA, and work out a deal, if the Dodgers are willing. My guess is that no matter what, the Rockies would have to eat some of his contract. Financially, they cannot compete with LA. They are also offering Story up to teams as trade bait. The Cubs are in full blown sell mode. Question remains, who does AF want more, if he wants them at all.

    2. Not meaningless. Harder to finalize, yes. Ratings are based on composite skill sets of the individual players. If a pitcher had a 80 fastball before the pandemic, chances are he still gets it up there. I doubt that Michael Kopech loses his 80 fastball. Age is going to play into the equation. The top 100 players that did not graduate will stay in the top 100. Players in the next 30 or so will replace those that graduate. The organizations will be rated by how many top 100, top 150, top 200 prospects they have. The Dodgers should have plenty in the 125-200 range but very few in the top 125. They have just graduated too many players to the MLB. The next wave has to develop. But it is not going to develop this season.

28. Probably in the minority here, but I would have liked to see Darvish come back to the Dodgers. I think he got too much blame when we lost to Houston along with Clayton. But have no idea who he would replace. My New Years wish is most of the players be back on the team, Lux at 2nd, Smith catching, and Caleb healing. Make it so, please, Mr Friedman.

    1. Well, the Astro’s cheating may have led to his beat down in game 3 at Houston, but his second performance at Dodger Stadium, where the Stros did not have the benefit of their cheating was all on him. 2 games, 3 innings and 9 runs, he deserved every bit of crtisizm he got after game 7. And he did not want to come back to LA>

29. December 2019, did anybody have any idea about Victor Gonzales. AF and front office know a lot that we do not know. Patience. Patience…..

    1. I believe Victor Gonzalez will be even better in 2021. He gained a lot of confidence in the Post-Season.

    2. Nobody questioned his arm going into the 2019 season. After the 2019 season, he went to the top of the class as a reliever in waiting. He went from Rancho to Tulsa to OKC all in 2019. What he was lacking going into the 2019 season was confidence. He even considered quitting. After the 2020 season, he now has all of the confidence he needs to excel. But his arm? Never considered a question.

       1. Alejandro, YES, AF and the FO know a ton more than we do. All we have is opinions.

          1. Yep….And that is why I’m here.

30. Mark–Great Post.
    Also great comments from everybody.

    Friedman might have tried to make a trade or two but teams didn’t like the Dodger prospects enough to do the trade. The Dodgers, according to Jeff, only have two prospects grading out at 55 or higher.

    Rios could be a late blooming stud, or not and yet he is for now penciled in at third.

    The Dodgers held on to Lee until he had little value and Friedman got lucky when he traded Lee for Taylor. Who might he be holding onto now that will lose value in 2021?

    If the Dodgers don’t splurge on Bauer or Hindricks or trade for Arenado they will have the payroll flexibility to sign multiple free agents next offseason including two of Story, Lindor, Seager as Kershaw and Jansen will not be on the payroll, at least not at their current cost.

    The biggest problem with standing pat and putting Rios at third is the lack of righty bats in the lineup, especially if Lux wins the second base gig. If they trade for Bryant it will not impact 2022 as Bryant would be a one year rental.

    1. Only one problem with attempting to sign two of Story, Lindor, Seager. They’ll all want to sign as shortstops.
       Maybe we could convince one of them that playing second base is like playing shortstop for left handed hitters.

       1. One of them has to be AROD and I am guessing it would be Story. AROD was a better shortstop than Jeter and he moved to third. I would rank Lindor, Story, and Seager in that order defensively.

          1. I agree with your ranking. I would probably also include both Baez and Correa as better defensively than Corey. There is nothing special about Seager as a defensive SS. He gets the job done. But I would rather have Corey over any of them. If Seager was willing to move to third, I would pay huuuuuuge dollars for Lindor.

31. I wonder what we would have to give up for one year rental for Chris Bryant? Based on Darvish not much and if healthy he could be due for a big bounce back year. He could give us some 3b and lf if Pollock gets injured. Still would want Turner back. That’s two big righty bats for all those Padre left handers. And a closer. That would be piggish!

    1. Bryant would probably cost at least 2 prospects. Judging on the kind of players the Padres sent, some middle tier guys.

32. All of the Dodger infielders hit left handed. Simply because they list Taylor as an outfielder. They currently have 9 LH hitting position players. One of those is a switch hitter. The RH bats are Betts, Barnes, Pollock, Peters, Smith and Taylor. Ruiz is the switch hitter and everyone else hits from the left side. SO, a RH bat or two would be nice. I am not sold on Reks, or Raley to crack the roster and it would not be surprising to me to see them swap one of their LH hitting infielders for a righty. . The bullpen needs to be addressed at the back end. The middle looks pretty good. Starting pitching is at the discretion of Friedman. Is he satisfied with the quality of his pitchers, or does he feel the need for an upgrade. If so, who does he target? It might be someone who has not even been mentioned. Or some one completely under the radar. Smoak and Thames signing with the Yomuri Giants. Santana signed to a minor league deal by the Royals. I saw a video of the kid the Dodgers got for Stripling. Williams? Kid has some serious size to him. If he puts it all together he could be a monster.

33. There are lots of sellers right about now and they will be more at the trade deadline.

    I know I am in the minority here, but I think Hoese and Busch will both be better than Gavin Lux (overall).

    Ruiz and Gray are still elite. Cartaya is intriguing but I can’t formulate an opinion… yet!

    Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas have something you can’t teach – POWER!

    Edwin Uceta could break with the team in Spring Training.

    I remember a guy drafted in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft who put it all together in 1993 and hit 35 HR’s, and never looked back! Mike Piazza was not highly athletic or even a great defensive catcher, but man-o-man, could he mash! Busch and Hoese are of that ilk. Piazza was 24 when he broke out. Hoese and Busch are right there with him. The conventional thinking was that Cody Bellinger was at least a year away when he suddenly became the Rookie of the Year! You never know…

    I hope I am wrong about Lux and you all come back and rub my face in it. I just call it the way I see it.

    1. I am not sure how you rate Busch and Hoese over Lux. Based on what? It is not that you have seen them a lot since Busch has 24 professional AB and Hoese 147. It is not that any publication has graded either Busch or Hoese at the Lux level. I am not saying Lux will become a superstar, but he grades out much closer than either Busch or Hoese. Hoese dominated in AZL, but he should have against high schoolers. In 91 ABs at Great Lakes, Hoese hit .264/.330/.385/.715 with 2 HRs. Busch in 11 ABs at Great Lakes, hit .182/.474/.182/.656 with 0 HRs. Small sample size, but it doesn’t scream they are going to mash. You used Piazza as comparison. Prior to 1993, Piazza had 1,439 MiLB ABs, not 147 or 24. In 1991 at 22, Piazza hit 29 HRs in High A at Bakersfield. In 1992 at 23, Piazza hit 23 in AA and AAA (San Antonio and Albuquerque). Maybe Hoese and Busch have a great year in 2021 (whenever MiLB starts). But there is absolutely no correlation between Piazza and Hoese/Busch. If you are talking about power, you can draw a closer correlation between Piazza and DJ Peters. Plus DJ is a good defensive OF.

       Both Kody and Michael will get a shot at High A in Great Lakes to start the season. Harold will keep a good eye out for them. Let’s see if they can conquer High A to AA before we say they are going to be stars. If you like Hoese and Busch, outstanding. If you do not like Lux, okay. But to say that Hoese and Busch are going to be better than Lux based on nothing other than you think they will or want them to does not make it so. I like Jacob Amaya. I think he will be a ML SS. But I do not think he will be better than Lux. He certainly does not have the talent that Lux has. Jacob has no power, but he gets on base. He is a fantastic fielding SS who could become a GG 2B.

       I just not going to condemn Lux for what happened in 2020. Just like I am not going to condemn Belli or Muncy. I also think that Christian Yelich is going to have a much better 2021. I also do not think that Pollock is a 40 HR guy which is what his 2020 numbers say he is. I am ecstatic over the moon that the Dodgers won in 2020. There should be ZERO talk of asterisks. But individual seasons should not be used for comps.

       1. Just my opinion – that is all it is based upon. Mostly the “eye test” because the stats sure don’t support it.

          See, I like Gavin Lux and I like Jacob Amaya, but I have no illusions about Amaya. I am not condemning Lux… I just remain unconvinced. I have voiced my opinion. I do not think he is a dirty rotten scoundrel and if I am wrong, you can say I told you so.

          It’s just my opinion. I am sure that the Dodgers have at least one in the front office who is not a Lux fan. It doesn’t mean I am right… but I could be!

          1. I understand about your hesitancy on Lux. I know you are not alone. And I am guessing that there is more than one person in the FO who is not a big Lux fan. He has never been given “the job is yours” pronouncement, so something is holding someone back. That was not how Joc, Seager, or Belli were treated. Joc was the CF and Corey was the SS. No question. Doc was the manager, so that has not changed. Once AGon got injured, Belli had the ML job at 1B or OF. But he had a spot in the lineup. Lux did not get that. Why? So I understand the hesitancy. I saw him a lot in 2019 on MiLB TV. He was absolutely the best MiLB player in the country. There wasn’t anything he could not do. He had a little deer in the headlights look when he got the September call up, but he was not given the 2B job alone. When Seager got the September callup, SS was his. So you are definitely not alone in your questions about Lux.

             My question to you was not about Lux, but why you think so highly of Hoese and Busch, and what you base them being top 100 players on. It can’t be the eye test. They have less than 200 combined professional ABs. No baseball scouting publication puts them anywhere near elite. FanGraphs is not a fan of Hoese at all. They grade him as a platoon player. I personally like Busch over Hoese. But it is personal prediction based on his hit and plate discipline skillset. However, I have no idea where he is going to play.

34. Don’t you just hate people who show off their new granddaughters?

    

    1. I told her a joke:

       Did you hear about the three-legged cat who walked into a bar and said “I am looking for the man who shot my Paw!”

35. Now SHE is worth showing off! Should we put Lux in the Will Smith column? Lux will be a future all star!

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