AC’s Musings

This article has 63 Comments

1. I agree Jeff with all your points. Arenado is too old and too expensive even if we didn’t have to give up prospects. I think signing JT and seeing how Hoese progresses is the best plan. Unless Rios gets more disciplined with better pitch recognition I don’t know if he’s an every day player. Can’t wait to see if Lux is the player we thought he’d become. Also excited to Price pitch next year

2. Thanks for the musings.

   JT makes a lot of sense as a bridge for our current 3B situation (Rios and Hoese). Also, the Dodgers seem to make sense from JT’s perspective. As you suggest, the DH situation and $ are the main factors. I concur that $10M/yr for 2 years is a generous offer. I would not be surprised to see $8M/yr ($16M) to be the final figure.

3. The thought of Arenado coming to LA is growing on me, but the only way that happens is if he opts out. He wouldn’t do that unless he thought he would get something in the ballpark of that AAV. I think he absolutely would take a small pay cut to get out of Colorado and play for his hometown team, but it would be a small pay cut. If he and his agent got word on what AF might be willing to pay, and if it’s reasonably close to his current contract, he might decide to opt out. Yes, he’ll be walking away from a whole lotta money, but when you’re already talking about being paid in the hundreds of millions of stupid money dollars, at some point a player should decide what’s more important – the extra 15% in millions upon millions you’d be paid to play for an organization you despise and a team that is treading water, or the chance to play for the best organization in baseball and the team that was your boyhood dream of playing for.

   As for the either/or scenario of paying either Nolan or the homegrown products when they hit free agency, that’s probably true … Unless … When I made the same point the other day it was assuming the CBT would be more or less the same in five years. Someone pointed out that it most likely wouldn’t be. When I was playing around with the numbers you posted in the financials post from last week and doing some hypotheticals, we would be able to pay all the pre FA stars and just stay under the current cap. If the cap changes or the ceiling is higher, I suppose it’s possible the Dodgers can pay Nolan AND pay the Bellinger/Beuhler/Urias bills when they come due. Then again, if the CBT just gets higher, it will probably mirror the rising AAVs for free agents. Who knows what things will look like in a few years. I can guarantee AF is thinking about it, though.

   Rios/Turner to Hoese seems reasonable. None of those guys are a particularly good glove, though. With Lux having the yips, we’d face the prospect of the entire infield being subpar defensively. And in a couple of years, assuming Muncy leaves, you’ll need a bad at 1rst.

   1. Rios is getting better defensively. He lost all that weight and is now pretty quick. He has always had soft hands, good reflexes, and a good arm. It was just his range which was limited with his weight. If you recall, when Arenado was a MiLB 3B, he was not very good defensively. But he took tens of thousands of ground balls and worked himself to becoming the best defensive 3B in MLB. It did not come easy. I sincerely doubt that Rios will become as good defensively as Arenado or Machado or Chapman. I think he is already better defensively than Kris Bryant. I think Rios (WITH WORK) can become as good defensively as is Anthony Rendon. Maybe I am biased, but he does have that capability.

      I am not as concerned about 1B. Rios and Hoese will be able to co-exist on the same infield with one a 3B and one at 1B. And if the Dodgers ever do get a CF, Cody Bellinger is more than up to the task of being a GG 1B.

      1. What’s the time frame for Jake Vogel? He could play CF with Bellinger moving to first

         1. Just a guess on my part, but if one year per level (A,A,AA,AAA) then 2025

      2. Guys,Max Muncy was practically gifted to us by the baseball gods,don’t write him off in two years.Turner will probably slow down more,if we have him andMuncy could DH .All we will need is a left fielder.We will be pretty set.We have a great future if we sign our own players.

         1. I agree. If Muncy is able to play more like he did in 18,19 than he did in 20, why not sign him? I got into a discussion with someone the other day who argued that he didn’t care for Muncy. He averaged 5 WAR in 18 and 19. He was better statistically than Paul Goldschmidt. He has flaws as a player and doesn’t have flash, but he was statistically really really good, and I’m not ready to hand over a starting job to some Hoese guy I’ve barely heard of.

   2. Patch – I really like your rationale regarding Arenado, and I thought much the same. He’s been quite vocal in his flirting with the Dodgers, and like you I believe he might whisper in his Agent’s ear and tell him that he needs to get out of Colorado and into LA ASAP, and to broker a deal to make it happen.
      I would if I were him. Colorado are years away from being contenders.

      BTW – he is the same age now as when JT joined the Dodgers.

      1. He already has made his feelings known. He won’t opt out, but he could restructure the deal to make it more team friendly. Story has been rumored to be on the block also since he enters free agency after 21.

         1. You’d only restructure the deal to make it more team friendly if you like the team you were playing for. The only other reason you’d restructure the deal to make it more team friendly is if you wanted that team to then trade you to a team you did like. He also has a no trade clause in his contract which potentially nixes any negotiation with any team other than the Dodgers.

            He doesn’t have to restructure the deal. He only has to opt out if he doesn’t like it. The risk is he doesn’t get nearly that amount he’s guaranteed if he goes on the open market. Like Watford said, if there happened to be some informal talk at a hotel bar somewhere and there were some back of the napkin figures, then who knows?

            btw…I think for the first time ever my comments aren’t being held up for moderator approval. I don’t know what happened, but one of the most annoying things about this site seems to be fixed.

            1. I know that, He does have veto power on trades. He is not happy. He has made that known numerous times since he signed the deal and the Rocks did not live up to one of the stipulations which was that they put together a competitive team. They were competitive in 2018 tying for the division and then losing the playoff game. But they have not really done anything to address thier pitiful pitching and Nolan can see the writing on the wall that they are not going to be competitive in the near future.

4. Well Kim Ng has finally got that GM job that she has been after for so many years. Ng, as many will recall was an assistant GM with the Dodgers from late 2001-2011.

   Kim was first hired as an intern by the ChiSox while a student at the University of Chicago. She was hired full time in 1991 to become a special projects analyst. She was later promoted (1995) to be the Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 1995. Before becoming an Assistant GM with LAD, Ng was Assistant GM with NYY where she met Derek Jeter. And now Jeter has hired her for the GM position with the Miami Marlins.

   While with Chicago, in 1995 Kim was the first woman to present an arbitration case in ML. The case was Alex Fernandez, and she won.

   She is every bit as qualified as many of her male counterparts are. Congratulations to Kim Ng for breaking the woman’s glass ceiling in MLB. I wish her nothing but success, except when it comes to deals and games against the Dodgers.

5. JT hit.307 last year. Get it done. When Seager makes a quick one pitch out often we see JT purposely take a couple of pitches and work the count. They shouldn’t have a problem getting a 2 year deal done. I like Rios but I think it would be a huge drop off to the Dodgers offense. Yes JT will need more days off or time at either DH or 1B but this is a no brainer to me. The Dodgers need a guy who grinds AB’s and a guy who shows up the postseason.
   ~
   Sure Nolan would fit in nicely. I think he would eventually be just fine away from Coors. I do think he presses. Especially in big games and especially at Dodger Stadium. He might get over that as a Dodger. The Dodgers are not going to take on all that money and pay prospects a year after doing so with Mookie. The only way Nolan becomes a Dodger is opting out after the season and it’s still a long shot.

6. Good column, Jeff.

   I think people have read too much into the Justin Turner thing. I think the word that should be used with Turner is expectation, not priority. Pretty much everyone expects Turner to be back. The Dodgers want Turner back. Turner wants to be back. The fans want him back. End of discussion.

   So, what are the Dodgers really looking to do. Ink a reliever or two, come up with a bullpen with different looks. Come up with another right handed hitter. Present a more balanced line-up.

   Where would the right handed bat play? The outfield looks set, the DH isn’t a certainty at this point. You also have AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor, both righties. Pollock hits lefties well. Third? You have Turner and then Edwin Rios, a lefty. First? You have Max Muncy? Second? Gavin Lux, another lefty.

   Second would seem to be the obvious position or DH. Does Andrew Friedman read the tea leaves and conclude that the DH is here to stay? I might think that. I actually liked it. Needs to happen. But, it’s a bargaining chip which adds a degree of uncertainty.

   No, the Dodgers aren’t getting Nolan Arenado, not right now, maybe not ever.

   Francisco Lindor? Doubtful. Too big a cost in prospects. Too much money to sign beyond this upcoming season. Need to sign Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger to long term extensions at some point.

   Would Lindor play second? Maybe. I certainly wouldn’t ask Seager to move. Before somebody brings up the Alex Rodriquez move to third. Remember Derek Jeter didn’t move, a desperate Rodriquez did.

   But if the Dodgers did lose well north of $100 million this year and Stan Kasten said he expects fans back at Dodger Stadium when the season begins, where are the Dodgers in terms of budget at this point?

   Again, you might need to read the tea leaves.

   What about Trevor Story? Maybe the Rockies are willing to part with him. Not the face of the Colorado franchise, but a pretty good right handed bat and I’m guessing he can play anywhere in the infield. Good power. Seen him hit more than a few out of Dodger Stadium and the guy can play defense. A package with Lux and a couple of prospects might work. Or the Rockies could say no to any discussion with a division rival, especially the Dodgers.

   I like the idea of going after Hendricks, May and Rosenthal with the idea of signing a couple and bolstering the bullpen. But then again, when it comes to relievers nothing is certain.

   It will be an interesting off-season. One, at this point, with more questions than answers.

7. 1. I can give 199 Million reasons why Nolan will not opt-out. It’s still about the Benjamins.

   2. I am a huge fan of Rios. He has worked hard to lose weight, improve footwork and is working as we speak with Barry Larkin. Any way you slice it, he has a HR every 10 AB’s and is IPS’ing in the high .900’s for his brief career. He deserves a shot.

   3. I agree with Jeff on his defense. It is above average and he is determined to get even better.

   1. He’s got a hole in his swing you could drive a Mack truck through. Even Ray Charles could get him to miss down and in, and he walks about once every full moon.

8. Comments/Questions:

   1) AC, when you listed the stats for those four guys against LHP above I wish you would have included Seager, Belli and Muncy. What do we care what handed the guys hit as long as we have some batters who can hit lefties. Maybe the three I mentioned are even worse, but it would have been interesting to see their stats as well.

   2) Haven’t seen any negative pundit comments about Hoese………………………..until yesterday’s Keith Law chat. Not that his opinion is necessarily any better than anyone else’s, but this was the exchange on Hoese:

   Nick: Do you think the Dodgers see Kody Hoese as their future starting third baseman, or do they need to find an answer post-Turner (whenever that is) elsewhere?
   Keith Law: No, it’s not Hoese. He’s not very good, and he’s not a 3b.

   He has had some positive things to say about Rios though.

   3) Relievers – I’d like to add Colome to the list of Hendriks, Rosenthal, May. He’s a guy who gets it done without throwing 100 mph so would be a different look and that seems to be what AF is looking for.

   1. I will always take Keith Law seriously.

      Lux and Rios for Story and play Story at third if Dodgers can extend Story.

      Muncy and May for Gleyber and play Gleyber at second.

      Hoese to first backed by Turner.

      1. First you say you take Keith Law seriously Fred and then you say you want to play Hoese when Law says he isn’t very good. How do you reconcile those two statements?

         1. It was a struggle. I started out with one thought and finished with another. Law said he wasn’t a 3b so I moved him to 1b.

            I prefer Gleyber at first but wasn’t ready to put Turner at second. If Turner isn’t re-signed, Taylor could wind up as a long-term second baseman.

            Rockies could trade Nolan to Mets for a shortstop, put Lux at 2b, Rios at 3b and wind up with a greatly reduced payroll and replace Nolan and Story.

   2. I did not include any of the LH bats as the conversation was discussing RH bats against LHP. Since you asked, career slash lines:

      Seager vs RHP – .307/.375/.525/.900 and vs LHP – .272/.334/.451/.786
      Belli vs RHP – .283/.377/.574/.951 and vs LHP – .253/.339/.493/.832
      Max vs RHP – .229/.358/.477/.835 and vs LHP – .256/.362/.503/.865

      None of the three seem to have significant issues with LHP, and Max has reverse splits.

9. I am always astounded about the speculation surrounding the offseason, here and other places.

   Fans are fans – they want the best for their teams and so engage in wishful thinking.

   There is no way that the Dodgers are trading for Nolan Arenado.
   1- He’s too expensive
   2 – He doesn’t have a track record outside of Coors
   3 – He’s the wrong side of 30
   4 – The Rox won’t trade him to another team in the Division
   5 – The Rox will want an arm and a leg for him

   The Dodgers aren’t trading for Francisco Lindor either, although I think it’s more likely that they get Lindor than Arenado
   1 – The Tribe will want an arm and a leg for him
   2 – He won’t be worth the cost in prospects unless the Dodgers can extend him
   3 – They will also need to extend Kershaw and Seager in 2022
   4 – SS isn’t a position of need right now, and none of us knows if Seager will balk at moving to 3B

   The Dodgers aren’t trading for Kris Bryant.
   1 – He’s not a good 3B
   2 – The Cubbies will want an arm and a leg for him
   3 – They will need to extend him in 2022 along with Kershaw and Seager
   4 – In 2020 he OPS’d .644. In 2018 he only hit 13 HR.
   5 – He was injured much of the 2018 and 2020 seasons, raising questions about his durability

   I am a believer in Occam’s Razor – that usually, the simplest solution to a problem is the right one. The Dodgers need a RH bat, one who can play 3B with Rios. That seems to fit Justin Turner to a T.

   They need a 2B – it just so happens that their top prospect plays 2B – so see what Gavin Lux can do.

   They need some relief help – well there are a lot of RPs available as free agents. They will consider resigning some of their own but will look at who’s available and sign a few for the right price.

   1. I have two things to say to you rick:
      1) You’re no fun!
      2) I can’t disagree with anything you said.

      1. What STB said.

   2. Rick, this is the post of the week by a mile.
      Some people seem to treat JT as more expendable than he should be treated. I don’t know why he would make an unreasonable salary demand. especially in this market. Yes, his skills at third have diminished some but he made some pretty damn good defensive plays in the Series and he can still provide clutch, right handed power. He’s close to a career .300 hitter with no split issues. He needs to be a lifetime Dodger and appreciated more. Hell yeah, we can get Arenado and Lindor and tell Seager, JT and a Batboy to be named later, to don’t let the door hit you in the ass. That would be smart and do wonders for team chemistry and loyalty, not to mention the pocketbook.
      The decision on the DH will impact JT’s future more than anything.
      Rios and Lux need more time to see what they can do. I haven’t seen Rios play badly at 3rd. He does have serious reverse splits that need to get fixed if he is going to platoon with JT at third. If you sit a career .299 hitter against righties in JT, Rios needs to hit better than .250. Rios career-wise hits lefties better than JT. Not an ideal platoon. But we need to see more reps for Rios.
      I love reading all the ideas but you hit it right on the head Rick.

   3. dodgerrick, I agree with you 100%. No need to overthink the situation. Lots to choose from for BP additions in the FA market. Maybe add a RH bat. Then let’s head into battle in 2021. We can’t afford an All Star at every position. The Dodgers are outstanding in player development. That should be at the major league level as well. So, let them continue with Rios and Lux and, if necessary, make needed changes. Some are quick to cast aside players if they don’t immediately meet their expectations. I waited 5 years for Kiki to take over 2B as a regular. It didn’t happen, but we got a lot of good things from him in the meantime. Same with Joc. Just let the kids play!

10. Good stuff Jeff. Hot stove season is always fun. I love JT. He has been a rock on this team. I remember he was signed as a free agent and wasn’t even projected to make the roster. And when he did, it was as a backup for Juan Uribe. He is about as clutch a hitter that has ever worn the Dodger uniform. He took over at 3rd in 2015 and has been the main man ever since. But over the last few years we keep losing him for 10 days at a time due to injury. His WAR over the last 3 seasons has dropped every year. And this year it was the lowest it has ever been at 1.3. Why? Injury. He missed 18 of the 60 games. Almost a 3rd of the season. He did play in all of the post season. But the first two series he was 2-18. He got cranked up a little against the Braves and then was back to the JT we all love against the Rays. In 2017 and 18 they lost him for long stretches. When he is in there and healthy, he is as good as any 3rd baseman in the league. But now, he is not in there as much as the team would like. I hope the DH stays in the league so he would be able to alternate between DH and 3rd. I think the only thing holding back Edwin Rios is a lack of consistent playing time. You put him out there close to every day and that hole in his swing is not going to be that big of a problem. Beaty played a lot more in 19 and with that kind of usage he is also a better hitter than he showed this year. And he had a penchant for some very dramatic hits. I have to believe that they are committed at least when spring starts to seeing what they are going to get out of Gavin Lux. If Lux flops in spring, then CT 3 is going to get the bulk of the time there unless they decide to bring someone else in. Not having a minor league season last year gives them little idea what to expect from the guys on that top 30 list. I think it is entirely possible that Hoese and Busch get a lot of playing time come spring. They still have to decide who to protect on the 40 man roster because of the rule 5 draft. Although a lot of projections seem to think that there will not be as many players picked off of rosters this year because of what happened. I see a lot of names being bandied about as possible trade chips bringing in players some think would be great fits in LA. Bum loves Torres. The thing is that the team who has the player has to be willing to trade him I do not see the Yanks parting ways with Torres. Since I live in Colorado I can tell you this because it has been in the news here. The Rockies have both Arenado and Story out there as possible trade candidates. There is also a lot of buzz about them non tendering David Dahl. Arenado has veto powers over any trade. Who will the Dodgers target in free agency or trade? Your guess is as good as mine. But from what I have read. The bullpen is the main target. They was diversity out of the pen as Andrew so succinctly put it. For now until after Turkey day, there will be little activity. And even Andrew said that because they went as far as they did they are behind the rest of the teams in thier off season planning. And watch out for the Mets. Cohen means business.

    1. WAR is based on games played. I wouldn’t fret about JT’s 1.3 WAR. It was a 60 game season. To get an idea what it would’ve been over the course of a 162 game season, just multiply it by 2.7. It would’ve been about what it was in 2019, which is off from his peak years, but not shabby.

       1. His WAR in 19 was 4.1. Down from 4.9 in 18. In 16 and 17 it was around 5.0 and 5.6. Power numbers were down, but again, that can be attributed to the injury problem. He played 42 games out of the 50. So if you project that over a 162 game season he would have played just a little over 100 games. He basically missed a third of the year. Look, he is getting older. I do not expect him to be the guy out there every single game. But with his range not what it was, and the decreased production, they have to be thinking exactly how much is he worth to the team as a whole.

          1. Yes. He’s declining most certainly, especially his defense, but he’s still good. We’re not talking Albert Pujols here.

             https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-turner/5235/stats?position=3B

             1. No, we are certainly not talking about a lock for the Hall. I really like JT and I hope he finishes his career as a Dodger. But one has to know they are not going to go very far over market value for him. His last contract was very team friendly.

11. With all the trade talk going on, two things stuck out for me…
    Kim Ng… Congrats to her and hope she has a smooth road. A friend and I ran into her at Dodger stadium in a place we shouldn’t have been (We loved doing that and it’s alot easier to explain to security the older you get). We had a fun 10 minute or so conversation about the Dodgers and how she was enjoying her job and it’s challenges.. She then commenced to direct us to the exit…
    Last but not least, Dodger Rick’s use of Occam’s Razor… Very cool..
    His takes were spot on also…

    1. Trade talk is really which rumor is more rampant today. Congrats to Kim. I thought she actually had a shot at getting the position with the Dodgers. Now it is she who decides the fate of DM down the road. LaRussa is under pretty intense fire from the media right now. I really think the Sox are going to regret that hire and I doubt he is going to have smooth sailing in that clubhouse. Especially with a guy like Anderson. If I am the GM, which for you guys is a good thing I am not, I would grab at least 2 of those free agent relievers and I would not wait around to get out bidden. I would strike quick. I would lean toward bringing Kike back. He does have some pop from the right side, normally kills lefty’s, and last time I checked was one of the better defensive players in the league. 2 years, 12 million seems about right. It also gives them a solid defensive back up in CF of something happens to Max or Cody. Since if Max went down, Cody would be the most logical to move to 1st. I go to a six man rotation which would benefit both CK and Price. Expect them to go a little deeper in games. At least 6 innings. But especially after a season where they were not stretched to thier limits physically, I would not really expect them to be ready for a 162 game season where they would be as fresh at the end as they were this year. White and Gray are on the fast track. If I were to move Smith to any position, it would be 1st base if Lux fails, put Max at second and get Ruiz a MLB uni. Right now the bullpen locks are Kelly, Jansen, Gonzalez, Graterol, and Kolarek. So if they go with a 13 man staff with 13 position players, that leaves 2 spots open with 6 starters. Locks for the roster, Muncy, Taylor, Seager, Belli, Pollock, Smith, Barnes, Rios. That leaves 4 roster spots as everyday guys up for grabs. Lux and McKinstry probably have the inside track on 2 of them. And of course, some players are possible trade fodder. And some players are tweeners. So it is going to be a very interesting couple of months. Just under 3 months until pitchers and catchers report if 2021 turns out to be a normal season.

12. I’ve been reading some projections this morning, including the 2021 Baseball Fantasy Rankings. One Dodger in the Top 10. There are 7 SS in the top 25 and Corey Seager isn’t one of them. As I mentioned yesterday, Rios and Turner splitting time at 3rd projects well. Lux has mixed projections. Sites doing the evaluations have no idea how many games he might play but if he does play he projects well.

    The language used by Law is a bit surprising but I did see, and note yesterday that Hoese is well down the list of prospects. Bellinger, Pollock, Muncy, Smith all project well. Obviously this is a solid team top to bottom. I have no predictions on any moves but I don’t really expect something big. Fine tune the well running machine and turn it loose. We will be favored again.

13. Contrary to what some here have said about what it would take to get Lindor, this source says otherwise.

    https://dodgersway.com/2020/11/13/dodgers-francisco-lindor-rumors-trade-packages/amp/3/

    1. Well that is a really great source. Right below the Village Idiot!

       1. I thought you would appreciate that one.

14. You might as well throw in Seager because he won’t sign playing third base!

15. Spot on analysis, Jeff! I like the idea of keeping JT around for an extra year or two, and letting him alternate between DH (yes, there will be a universal DH next year) and 3B, while Rios gains playing time. I think that AF and JT will come to an agreement, because it’s in both of their best interests. Besides, JT loves playing in LA. He is part of the community here and has been for a long time. He does not strike me as the kind of guy who is just about the money. He is happy here, and he is a huge favorite of the fan base, and a clubhouse leader. And he can still hit, not to mention his superb glove work in the playoffs. If Rios can keep improving at 3B, and lowers his swing and miss rate, watch out! Yes, it would be nice if we had stellar defense at 3B and SS. Yet, all those teams with Lindor, Machado, Arenado, etc, etc didn’t win the WS. We did! And our defense in the playoffs was pretty darn good, if I recall (except for one atrocious play at the end of game 4 of the WS, but we can forget about that one, right?). The point is, we are a powerhouse, and defense on the left side of the infield is not our highest priority. What is our highest priority? Let’s say it all together: “relief pitching!” Same as every year.

16. I am not sure why Dodger blogs are not the perfect place to discuss Dodger scenarios that may or may not happen. Nolan Arenado has been discussed on this and other Dodger blogs (and I am sure many other MLB sites) as a potential 3B for the past several years. He grew up in Orange County and was an unabashed Dodgers fan. He is the best defensive 3B in the game, and has monstrous power. From 2015-2019 the least number of games he played was 155. Why wouldn’t Dodger fans want Nolan Arenado? Because he is going to make $199MM over the next six years, he may not be practical, but he certainly is worthy of conversation. How much would the Rockies agree to take back in salary? I have read the concerns that Nolan might be breaking down because he had a shoulder issue last year that may have hurt his numbers. Clayton Kershaw has had a back issue since 2014. He has landed on the IL every year since 2014 except 2015. In 2019, he had shoulder inflammation and placed on the IL. What should the Dodgers do with a SP with a chronic back concern, and a recent shoulder concern? I say keep signing him until he retires as a lifetime Dodger.

    Since ST 2018, I was advocating DJLM to LAD. I remember quite vividly all the comments made that he will be on the wrong side of 30 and cannot hit outside of Coors. So what does he do? He signs a 2 year $24MM contract with NYY, and proceeds to hit .327/.375/.518/.893 as an AS and SS, with a 4th place finish in the MVP race for 2019. In 2020, he does even better with .364/.421/.590/1.011. That is a ML leading BA, and an AL leading OBP and OPS, with another SS and a 3rd place MVP vote. Now some say that his success is supposedly tied to Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium has a very short porch in both LF and RF (318 and 314 respectively), and with a very reachable RF power alley (385). The field dimensions do nothing for contact, but they do for power. Looking at his spray chart for the last two years, most of DJLM’s HRs were to RF, especially the power alley. But he hit to all fields. Could it be that DJLM is just a good hitter and looked to hit for more power to RF under the right circumstances? Dodger Stadium is the same dimension in right center (385), shorter in left center and straight away CF, but longer down the lines. DJLM has exceeded 100 strikeouts one time in his career…2015 with 107.

    Strikeouts over the last 4 years:
    DJLM – 90, 82, 80, 21
    CT3 – 142, 178, 115, 55 (NL leading 178)
    Belli – 146, 151, 108, 42
    Max – NA, 131,149, 60
    Arenado – 106, 122, 93, 20

    I say both DJLM and Nolan Arenado can hit with Dodger Stadium as their home field.

    Why shouldn’t Dodger fans put scenarios together that would bring Lindor to LA. I am not in favor of it because I am all in for Corey Seager, and if Seager does not want to move to 3B, then I am not making him. But Lindor is a very special player and is very much a possibility (not probability). The Dodgers are one of a handful of teams that has both the prospect capital and the financial wherewithal to make it happen. AF will stay in the discussion until he doesn’t, but he isn’t hanging up the phone without a discussion. If AF can discuss Lindor, why shouldn’t Dodger fans?

    Dodger fans and more importantly, AF, has mentioned that the Dodgers are looking for a RH power bat. If he does not re-sign JT, why wouldn’t Kris Bryant get discussed as a possibility (again not probability)? It is certainly better odds that Kris is traded than he stays with the Cubs. If the Dodgers need a RH bat who plays 3B, and they can certainly afford $19MM, why not discuss him? One can argue that he is not a good fit. Are the Dodgers likely to trade for Kris Bryant? I sincerely doubt it, but it is worthy of a discussion.

    I remember not too long ago that most on this site and other Dodger blogs did not believe that AF would ever trade for Mookie Betts. Then after it was done, the same skeptics said, but AF is never going to sign him for 9 figures. He has never done it before, so why now? Then he goes out and not only trades for Mookie, but extends him with a 12 years $365MM contract. So that should dispel the myth that AF will not trade for a game changing player, and that he will not pay him to stay. Dodgers win the 2020 WS Championship with Mookie. Coincidence???

    Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Kris Bryant are all potential trade pieces this winter. I expect AF to discuss all three with the respective GMs. If AF can discuss the possibility, why cannot Dodger fans? I strongly doubt that AF trades for any of the three, but I think all three are worthy of a discussion. Again I predict that AF will re-sign JT, and JT and Rios will platoon in some fashion at 3B/DH for 2021. But I would not be shocked to see Arenado, Seager, or Bryant at 3B.

    IMO, a more worthy discussion is DJLM. What if he agrees to the JT contract of four years ago? 4 years at $64MM. DJLM is a RH bat who can play 2nd, 3rd, or 1st. Maybe I will do just that.

    1. I have read several analysts say that Colorado hitters have difficulty adjusting to the greater ball movement on the road because by the time they adjust they return to Colorado and again see less ball movement. When they no longer play for Colorado and consistently see the same ball movement at home and away they do better on the road.

       I would be happy if the Dodgers didn’t do anything more than re-sign Turner, Pederson, Wood, Hernandez, and Treinen. Maybe sign one free agent relief pitcher. That said, I would like 4 regular righty and 4 regular lefty bats in the lineup and would enjoy watching the Dodgers more if Pederson were one of the lefty bats. Thus my desire to trade for Gleyber and Story. I also would love to have the Lindor persona, defense, and running on the team. DJLM would also be a great righty bat.

       1. Is that you, Hamchuk

          1. Depends on who you ask Bobby.

    2. Jeff,

       Well, you were right about DJLM, but I am still not convinced he would hit in LA like he did in NY and in the AL East.

       Still, he would be an asset. However, as I listened to MLB.Radio this week, they were wondering if he would get a 4 year/$85 million deal or a 5/year/$100+ million. Thems big numbers!

       1. If he were to get those numbers, NYY can keep him. I have also heard that because of the loss of revenues in 2020 and the projected loss of revenues in 2021, that DJLM could sign a contract for exactly the same as JT signed four years ago. That is as high as I would go. But I would go that high.

    3. I agree with Pedro Moura of The Athletic who also looked at a variety of free agent moves and trades that the Dodgers might make and then concluded: “The Dodgers could do almost anything. Hell, Rich Hill could return.”

       Let’s face it – every year, the Dodgers are considered as a landing spot for every high profile free agent or potential star trade acquisition for the same reason – they have financial resources and prospect capital. But they rarely do the things that all of the rumormongers say that they will do.

       The thing about the Mookie Betts acquisition – it was a huge surprise just because the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman had never done anything remotely like that before. And I do believe that it made the difference in the Dodgers winning the Series this year. That doesn’t mean that the Dodgers will acquire all other teams’ star players every year – heck, they may never do anything like it again.

       If you were a betting man, would you bet on the Dodgers trading for any of Bryant, Arenado or Lindor? Signing Trevor Bauer or DJ LeMahieu or Liam Hendriks?

       1. Rick, I am not saying the Dodgers will sign any of the top free agents, including the relievers, or trade for any elite player. I just think that they are worth the conversations amongst baseball fans. It is fantasy league time. I have never been an advocate for Trevor Bauer. He is way too inconsistent to be considered an Ace. At 30 is he really going to age well? Way too much guess work for $30-$35MM+. I also agree with Moura, and thought that Rich Hill could very well make his way back to LA. He loved being a Dodger. I doubt that it will happen, but that is the type of player that AF will focus on in a murky environment.

          Or because of Mookie, they may in fact do it again. I agree that Mookie was the difference maker. The Dodgers are going to pick #30 in the draft. Their #2 is going to be in the 60-70 range. Just how good of a pick does anyone think that the Dodgers will get if there is limited baseball again this spring. Except for the top prospects, Dodger farm hands lost a full year of development, and most of those at USC did not get a lot of growth because there were no games (except intrasquad). I like DJLM. Always have. Is he worth a JT contract and the loss of the #65-70 draft pick? He would be to me, but I do not count. Lux could then be moved for a close to MLB ready top 75 CF, and another top 75 prospect, to really help fill a hole the Dodgers have in their system. Signing DJLM does not mean that they cannot sign JT. I think they sign JT regardless.

          I would not be at all surprised if the Dodgers re-signed JT, Wood, and Baez and called it a Winter. Maybe even Anthony DeSclafani on a low risk high reward type deal. Spend April-July trying to make VGon or Bazooka the late inning go to guy, and if not, trade for the best late inning reliever available at the trade deadline. I think that is far more likely than trading for Lindor or Arenado or Bryant or signing DJLM. But that would be fairly boring to write about. I do think that Brett de Geus makes the Dodgers roster coming out of ST, but that is certainly not going to elicit a lot of commentary.

          1. Rick Porcello won a CY Award, and I never considered him an Ace.

       2. No, it’s absolutely critical we discuss trade scenarios, however unlikely. I have it on good authority that AF copies the comments on this blog into a PowerPoint presentation Dodger execs discuss in their closed door strategy meetings.

          This blog is actually a Dodgers think tank.

          Hey Andrew. Don’t mind Bumsrap. He just gets a little excited sometimes. Please. Absolutely do not trade Bellinger for Gleyber Torres, or Mitch Haniger, or Chris Archer.

17. Great stuff guys, keep it coming. Things are a little blurry for me today. I went to my eye doctor since it has been a little over a year since I had the cataract surgery on both eyes. Doc had to dilate them so things are really fuzzy. It looks like they will have to have some laser surgery to take the film that sometimes comes after the cataract surgery. They can do both eyes at the same time, so when I get VA approval, I will get is scheduled and get er done. I am really down with all things Dodger. Should be getting my World Series Champs coffee mug and T shirt soon.

18. Wishing you well. You should be able to see colors better now or soon, Dodger Blue will look good. Hope you get it done soon and it is successful Bear.

    1. Thank you DBM. It usually does not take too long to get approval for services from the VA. And they are out-sourcing more than they ever have. When they closed the eye clinic at the Pueblo BA, they have a service that allows vets to pick a Dr. closer to where they live. It is 35 miles to the Pueblo VA, and 123 to the VA’s brand new hospital in Denver. So only having to drive about 3 miles is much more convenient. And when they do the surgery, it will probably be in Colorado Springs, and they have a shuttle that picks you up and brings you back home. I hope I get it done before Christmas, but if it has to be after the first of the year, that is fine too.

19. Dodgerrick is making way too much sense for me……..so instead I’m thinking the Dodgers need more jewelry. Go for the jugular while you have the players. Look at the Cubs. Tomorrow may never come. You can never have enough pitching. Armchair GM here offering Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray, Mitchell White or Dennis Santana & Kiebert Ruiz or some similar type package for Blake Snell.

20. The good news is that this team doesn’t need much. I think a lot of people are going out in the weeds. Here’s what we know…

    AF said in a recent interview that he’s looking for relievers, preferably ones with different looks than the ones that he already has. And that he’s looking for a right handed bat.

    In the same interview he expressed tepid interest in bringing JT back.

    I also look to Occam’s Razor to explain reasons or actions that may be unclear. It makes total sense to bring JT back while splitting time with Rios who can also spell Muncy at 1st from time to time until Cody Hoese is ready…

    Bringing us to another problem, Cody Hoese and his readiness. We all want to believe that after only 2 seasons (if you can call last season a season) removed from college ball, that he’ll be ready sometime in 2021 and Doc will be confident enough to play a majority of postseason games at 3B and being a right handed power bat in the middle of the order. Realistically, he’s probably arriving 2022 and ready to take over a post-season spot in 23.

    Back to Occam’s razor. In a normal offseason, bringing back a fan favorite to a Chase Utley type deal would not surprise anyone. But, this is not a normal offseason. Just like its not a normal year, normal presidential election and toilet paper shortages are not normal. I also don’t think AF is as much of an Occam’s razor guy as we are. I think he’s more of an out of box type thinker and I think he’s ready to take advantage of a crazy market of non-tenders and salary dumps.

    If wages are trending downward, like we saw with Brand Hand it might make sense for a club to cut bait a year early on a player that’s making a lot of money. Kris Bryant and Nolan Arendado fall into this category.

    We’ll see how this shakes out, but one thing is for certain. We have too many left handed hitters in our lineup, especially if you think Rios and Lux are going to take over next year. That’s 5 lefties and 3 righties. Something’s gotta give.

    BTW – Keith Law on Kody Hoese not being a third baseman? Kody Hoese is playing half his innings at 3B and the other half at SS. Not sure what Keith Law thinks he knows, but he probably didn’t check in with the Dodgers’ development department before making that comment.

    1. Excellent and thorough article, Jeff.
       I agree that JT is likely to return, and it would be a win-win situation.
       If for some reason JT doesn’t return, Kris Bryant could be a good one year option. He had a poor year in 2020 (.206 BA, and .644 OPS), and has one more year before becoming a free agent. However, his career OBP is .380, and career OPS is .889. His arbitration salary is expected to be $19 million, and the Cubs are looking to unload salary. There is even some talk that the Cubs may consider non-tendering Bryant. Yes, it is unlikely, but maybe part of the backup plan if JT is not re-signed.
       In terms of Keith Law comments on Hoese, he seems to be in the minority, and he likely did not see Hoese play at all this year. It sounds like Hoese made improvements this year at the alternate facility, which Law may not have considered.
       Also, Keith Law was very negative on Julio Urias after his shoulder surgery, and essentially did not expect him to be a MLB pitcher after the surgery. So even the experts are not always correct. In his chat, Law also mentioned that Josiah Gray, Cartaya, and Michael Busch are top 100 mlb prospects in dodger system. In reading through the Chat from Keith, it made me appreciate this website and the commitment to keep politics out of the discussion.

21. Country lost another artist today. Doug Supernaw passed away at 60 from cancer.

22. Is there a realistic scenario where we can trade for Arenado and having the Rockies pay part of his salary?

    1. Yes and Mexico will pay for the wall too.

    2. Not a chance. And I will say this. If the Rockies traded Arenado to the Dodgers there would be such a stink raised in Denver from the fans. They hate the Dodgers here pretty much. I know the few times I have been to Coors and wear my Dodger gear, they are not too kind. But no where near as bad as the Giant fans are.

23. Armchair GM trade senerio are great to read, And get other reader’s ideals on what they think that would be a better trade. The one from JR for Blake Snell I thought was giving up to much.

    1. Rumor has it that Snell is best-in-world for 4.2 innings and then implodes.

24. Snell is a very good pitcher. But the need is not for starters so any scenario that has them trading for a starter is not going to happen. They might snag one on a minor league deal for depth at AAA. AF has been good about that over the last few years. But they have 8 starters on the roster right now. Kersh, Price, Urias, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Gray and White. No, they will go after a reliever long before they ever considered trying to trade for a starter.

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