We need to end this myth that Mookie cannot hit LHP. Over his career, against LHP, Betts is slashing .297/.379/.509/.888. Mookie’s career against RHP – .302/.372/.526/.897. Those seem like even splits to me. Over his career, Mookie has faced RHP 76% of the time. I think it is more likely that Betts was unfamiliar with NL LH pitchers, and after a year on a new team and a new league, he will get even better.
In yesterday’s comments it was reported without JT: “we would currently have no major threat against lefthanded pitchers, except for Smith”. Unfortunately the response was off. Just like Mookie, the Fresh Prince was not as productive against LHP as he was against RHP. Let’s look at some of the other Dodger RH batters and their splits against LHP:
- JT vs LHP – .278/.364/.464/.828 – JT vs RHP – .299/.371/.472/.843 – 67% against RHP
- Smith vs LHP – .242/.327/.418/.745 – Smith vs RHP – .280/.380/.648/1.28 – 69% against RHP
- CT3 vs LHP – .254/.334/.442/.776 – CT3 vs RHP – .268/.335/.445/.780 – 66% against RHP
- AJ vs LHP – .285/.334/.523/.857 AJ vs RHP – .276/.335/.453/.788 – 70% against RHP
Only one RH batter hit LHP better than RHP and that was AJ Pollock. IMO that is because since Little League, batters have faced predominantly RHP all the way thru to the ML. Batters are more accustomed to seeing balls come out to the right hand than the left hand.
I acknowledge that it is important to hit LHP, but how critical is it to dominate? In reviewing the ABs vs RHP and vs LHP, it is quite clear that RHP occurs far more often than does LHP. Last year, there were 43,153 ABs against RHP and 15,877 ABs against LHP or 73.1%. The vast majority of teams faced RHP between 70% and 75% of the time. The team with the least number of ABs against RHP was the Angels at 66.14%, and the most ABs against RHP was the Cardinals at 82.19%. The Dodgers had 72.72% ABs against RHP. BTW, the best hitting team in MLB against LHP was the Detroit Tigers. How did that work out for them?
Mookie had an off year against LHP, but most believe that it was an anomaly, and that he will get back to career numbers in 2021. But even if he does not, and he continues to “struggle”, how will that affect the Dodgers in Wins and Losses? In 2020, the Dodgers were 13-5 against LHP, even with Mookie “struggling”. Only two teams had more wins against LHP than the Dodgers: SFG – 14-10 and ChiSox – 14-0. It might be tough to throw a lefty at the White Sox who did not lose to a southpaw all year.
Because of the limited number of LHP in MLB and because of the recent success the LAD have had against LHP, I am more bullish than not on the Dodgers ability to beat LHP.
Many have touched on AF’s comments about the lack of priority for re-signing JT. I am not sure why re-signing a 36 year old 3B with decreasing offensive and defensive skills should be a high priority. AF did not say that they were not going to pursue JT. And why would one side of a negotiation show their hand by saying JT is a high priority? Has JT said that re-signing with LAD is a high priority for him? If JT wanted to sign a 2 year $16MM deal, I am sure that contract would have been signed by now. There is no urgency for either player or team to make a decision right now. JT is going to wait to see what teams will need a 3B after the 12-2 non tenders are known, and AF is not going to prioritize a 36 year old 3B until he knows who else may be available after 12-2.
In addition, AF is not going to move forward without knowing what the ultimate decision on the universal DH will be. Hopefully a decision will be made some time this month or at least before the Winter Meetings.
Two reasonable factions should be able to come to a resolute compromise on DH and extended playoffs. Both sides are holding one of the topics over the other negotiating party. Are MLB and MLBPA holding off on decisions until it is known how COVID-19 will impact the 2021 season? Or are they just posturing? If swift decisions cannot be made on these two topics, how can we expect these two bodies reaching any kind of decision over the much more controversial and financially significant topics to be discussed in the next CBA?
With Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting their Qualifying Offers from the Mets and Giants respectively, arguably the #2 and #3 starting pitcher free agents are no longer available. The next best two FA starting pitchers figure to be Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi, neither of whom should excite many teams. I am guessing that there could be a number of one year contracts for James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, J. A. Happ, or small two year deals for Taijuan Walker, Garrett Richards, and Jose Quintana, before any significant 3 year deals for Tanaka or Odorizzi. St. Louis could offer Adam Wainwright a very team friendly two year deal to stay in St. Louis. There is no elite starting pitching available in FA for 2021.
I am not convinced that Trevor Bauer is going to get what he may be expecting. While there are absolutely pockets of exceptional pitching, there is no consistent excellence in his resume. And when you start to dialogue about 6 man rotations, the reliance on elite starting pitching begins to wane. Why pay $30MM on a pitcher for several years who may never throw more than 5 innings in any single game. If I were AF, I would not pay for Trevor Bauer. I would rather pay Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, and Trevor Rosenthal for less $$$ and less years.
The Dodgers need a 3B, or do they? Edwin Rios could be that ready to play 3B right now…or not. We will not know unless he gets the shot. The Dodgers love JT, and would like for him to end his career in LA, but on their terms. At 37, Chase Utley signed a one year contract at $7MM, and then at 38 signed a 1 year $2MM contract, and a 39 he signed a 2 year $2MM contract, with the knowledge that he would not be playing the second year. Thus, for the ages of 37-40, Utley signed for $11MM. Can JT really expect a lot more? JT closer approximates David Freese at this time in his career. I hope JT ends his career in LA, but not at an above market cost. I think the Dodgers would be extremely generous with a 2 year $20MM deal.
We have already discussed ad nauseum the Lindor to SS and Seager to 3B potential. Lines have been drawn. I remain in the NO FOR LINDOR camp. At least for the moment, the buzz does not involve the Dodgers. With Amed Rosario (24), Andres Gimenez (22), and #1 NYM prospect, Ronny Mauricio (19), the Mets have a number of SS that would interest Cleveland. Throw in Brandon Nimmo and another top 10 prospect, and they are getting closer to a workable deal. If the Mets sign JTR, 18 year old catcher prospect, Francisco Alvarez becomes attainable. Phillies, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and NYY (if do not re-sign DJLM) are the other contenders. If Cohen wants Lindor, he will get him. But since there is no buzz from LAD sources, that is generally when AF does something out of the blue.
The Dodgers have indicated that a priority is for a RH power bat. Nolan Arenado plays platinum glove at 3B and provides a RH power bat. The problem is that he is owed $199MM over the next 6 years. That comes with a $32.5MM AAV. That would absolutely mean that one of Seager, Belli, or Buehler will not be extended or signed as a FA.
Some have said that Arenado cannot hit outside of Coors. I heard the same thing about DJLM, and yet he hit better at Yankee Stadium than at Coors. Now it is said that DJLM is perfect for Yankee Stadium. Or is it that DJLM can adapt to wherever he plays? I have always been a DJLM fan, but I do not see him leaving NYY. He loves playing for the Yankees, and the Yankees and NYY fans love him.
While Dodger Stadium is not Coors, it is still a decent hitters park. The Dodgers have not been lacking of power hitters of late, so there is no reason to believe that Arenado would not put up big power numbers at Dodger Stadium. Let’s take a closer look at how Arenado hits away from Coors:
Career numbers vs NL West stadiums:
- Arizona – .280/.347/.498/.845
- SFG – .267/.336/.483/.819
- SDP – .287/.354/.507/.861
- LAD – .251/.312/.473/.785
- Col – .322/.376/.609/.985
Outside of LA, Arenado has a .800+ OPS in every park. But I think it is the Dodger pitching that is keeping the offensive numbers down and not the stadium. Thus, Nolan figures to hit .800+ against all NL West teams.
Career numbers vs other NL stadiums:
- St. Louis – 278/.337/.511/.848
- NYM – .229/.275/.410/.684
- Phil – .195/.238/.338/.576
- Cin – .291/.370/.456/.825
- Mia – .191/.240/.298/.538
- Mil – .397/.461/.838/1.299
- WSN – .314/.377/.586/.962
- Pitt – .269/.310/.358/.668
- ATL – .255/.255/.447/.702
- Cubs – .247/.287/.495/.782
Arenado would have 33 away games against NL Central and NL East. He struggles in some of the NL East stadiums, but does hit better in most of the NL Central stadiums. Every hitter is going to have stadiums they do not hit well in.
In addition, in keeping with the batting against LHP metric, for his career, Nolan is slashing .320/.394/.602/.996. That would increase the heart rate for LHP against the Dodgers.
Going through the exercise was fun, but IMO it is irrelevant. I am not as concerned as to whether Nolan can hit outside of Coors, because I think he can. But the problem as I see it is two-fold. The Dodgers are not going to assume a $32.5MM AAV, and Colorado is not going to trade him to LA without a significant overpay of prospect capital.
Another more reasonably priced (salary wise) RH power hitting 3B, is the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. Nobody is going to confuse Bryant with Arenado with the glove, but Kris is very capable of putting up BIG numbers. He is projected to earn approximately $19MM in arbitration, but the Cubs will not give him away. The tea leaves have Bryant being traded to Atlanta.
Oakland is not going to trade Matt Chapman. Both Chapman and Olson are team controlled through 2023. 2021 is their 1st year eligible for arbitration. The NL East does not figure to be difficult, and Oakland believes they have a legit shot at the Division and will not move either of their corner infielders.
JT looks to be the safest bet for the Dodgers 3B for 2021. He is also that RH bat they need. Pair him with Rios, and wait for Kody Hoese.
Discussion (63)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Snell is a very good pitcher. But the need is not for starters so any scenario that has them trading for a starter is not going to happen. They might snag one on a minor league deal for depth at AAA. AF has been good about that over the last few years. But they have 8 starters on the roster right now. Kersh, Price, Urias, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Gray and White. No, they will go after a reliever long before they ever considered trying to trade for a starter.
Armchair GM trade senerio are great to read, And get other reader’s ideals on what they think that would be a better trade. The one from JR for Blake Snell I thought was giving up to much.
Is there a realistic scenario where we can trade for Arenado and having the Rockies pay part of his salary?
Country lost another artist today. Doug Supernaw passed away at 60 from cancer.
The good news is that this team doesn’t need much. I think a lot of people are going out in the weeds. Here’s what we know…
AF said in a recent interview that he’s looking for relievers, preferably ones with different looks than the ones that he already has. And that he’s looking for a right handed bat.
In the same interview he expressed tepid interest in bringing JT back.
I also look to Occam’s Razor to explain reasons or actions that may be unclear. It makes total sense to bring JT back while splitting time with Rios who can also spell Muncy at 1st from time to time until Cody Hoese is ready…
Bringing us to another problem, Cody Hoese and his readiness. We all want to believe that after only 2 seasons (if you can call last season a season) removed from college ball, that he’ll be ready sometime in 2021 and Doc will be confident enough to play a majority of postseason games at 3B and being a right handed power bat in the middle of the order. Realistically, he’s probably arriving 2022 and ready to take over a post-season spot in 23.
Back to Occam’s razor. In a normal offseason, bringing back a fan favorite to a Chase Utley type deal would not surprise anyone. But, this is not a normal offseason. Just like its not a normal year, normal presidential election and toilet paper shortages are not normal. I also don’t think AF is as much of an Occam’s razor guy as we are. I think he’s more of an out of box type thinker and I think he’s ready to take advantage of a crazy market of non-tenders and salary dumps.
If wages are trending downward, like we saw with Brand Hand it might make sense for a club to cut bait a year early on a player that’s making a lot of money. Kris Bryant and Nolan Arendado fall into this category.
We’ll see how this shakes out, but one thing is for certain. We have too many left handed hitters in our lineup, especially if you think Rios and Lux are going to take over next year. That’s 5 lefties and 3 righties. Something’s gotta give.
BTW – Keith Law on Kody Hoese not being a third baseman? Kody Hoese is playing half his innings at 3B and the other half at SS. Not sure what Keith Law thinks he knows, but he probably didn’t check in with the Dodgers’ development department before making that comment.
Dodgerrick is making way too much sense for me……..so instead I’m thinking the Dodgers need more jewelry. Go for the jugular while you have the players. Look at the Cubs. Tomorrow may never come. You can never have enough pitching. Armchair GM here offering Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray, Mitchell White or Dennis Santana & Kiebert Ruiz or some similar type package for Blake Snell.
Wishing you well. You should be able to see colors better now or soon, Dodger Blue will look good. Hope you get it done soon and it is successful Bear.
Great stuff guys, keep it coming. Things are a little blurry for me today. I went to my eye doctor since it has been a little over a year since I had the cataract surgery on both eyes. Doc had to dilate them so things are really fuzzy. It looks like they will have to have some laser surgery to take the film that sometimes comes after the cataract surgery. They can do both eyes at the same time, so when I get VA approval, I will get is scheduled and get er done. I am really down with all things Dodger. Should be getting my World Series Champs coffee mug and T shirt soon.
I am not sure why Dodger blogs are not the perfect place to discuss Dodger scenarios that may or may not happen. Nolan Arenado has been discussed on this and other Dodger blogs (and I am sure many other MLB sites) as a potential 3B for the past several years. He grew up in Orange County and was an unabashed Dodgers fan. He is the best defensive 3B in the game, and has monstrous power. From 2015-2019 the least number of games he played was 155. Why wouldn’t Dodger fans want Nolan Arenado? Because he is going to make $199MM over the next six years, he may not be practical, but he certainly is worthy of conversation. How much would the Rockies agree to take back in salary? I have read the concerns that Nolan might be breaking down because he had a shoulder issue last year that may have hurt his numbers. Clayton Kershaw has had a back issue since 2014. He has landed on the IL every year since 2014 except 2015. In 2019, he had shoulder inflammation and placed on the IL. What should the Dodgers do with a SP with a chronic back concern, and a recent shoulder concern? I say keep signing him until he retires as a lifetime Dodger.
Since ST 2018, I was advocating DJLM to LAD. I remember quite vividly all the comments made that he will be on the wrong side of 30 and cannot hit outside of Coors. So what does he do? He signs a 2 year $24MM contract with NYY, and proceeds to hit .327/.375/.518/.893 as an AS and SS, with a 4th place finish in the MVP race for 2019. In 2020, he does even better with .364/.421/.590/1.011. That is a ML leading BA, and an AL leading OBP and OPS, with another SS and a 3rd place MVP vote. Now some say that his success is supposedly tied to Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium has a very short porch in both LF and RF (318 and 314 respectively), and with a very reachable RF power alley (385). The field dimensions do nothing for contact, but they do for power. Looking at his spray chart for the last two years, most of DJLM’s HRs were to RF, especially the power alley. But he hit to all fields. Could it be that DJLM is just a good hitter and looked to hit for more power to RF under the right circumstances? Dodger Stadium is the same dimension in right center (385), shorter in left center and straight away CF, but longer down the lines. DJLM has exceeded 100 strikeouts one time in his career…2015 with 107.
Strikeouts over the last 4 years:
DJLM – 90, 82, 80, 21
CT3 – 142, 178, 115, 55 (NL leading 178)
Belli – 146, 151, 108, 42
Max – NA, 131,149, 60
Arenado – 106, 122, 93, 20
I say both DJLM and Nolan Arenado can hit with Dodger Stadium as their home field.
Why shouldn’t Dodger fans put scenarios together that would bring Lindor to LA. I am not in favor of it because I am all in for Corey Seager, and if Seager does not want to move to 3B, then I am not making him. But Lindor is a very special player and is very much a possibility (not probability). The Dodgers are one of a handful of teams that has both the prospect capital and the financial wherewithal to make it happen. AF will stay in the discussion until he doesn’t, but he isn’t hanging up the phone without a discussion. If AF can discuss Lindor, why shouldn’t Dodger fans?
Dodger fans and more importantly, AF, has mentioned that the Dodgers are looking for a RH power bat. If he does not re-sign JT, why wouldn’t Kris Bryant get discussed as a possibility (again not probability)? It is certainly better odds that Kris is traded than he stays with the Cubs. If the Dodgers need a RH bat who plays 3B, and they can certainly afford $19MM, why not discuss him? One can argue that he is not a good fit. Are the Dodgers likely to trade for Kris Bryant? I sincerely doubt it, but it is worthy of a discussion.
I remember not too long ago that most on this site and other Dodger blogs did not believe that AF would ever trade for Mookie Betts. Then after it was done, the same skeptics said, but AF is never going to sign him for 9 figures. He has never done it before, so why now? Then he goes out and not only trades for Mookie, but extends him with a 12 years $365MM contract. So that should dispel the myth that AF will not trade for a game changing player, and that he will not pay him to stay. Dodgers win the 2020 WS Championship with Mookie. Coincidence???
Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Kris Bryant are all potential trade pieces this winter. I expect AF to discuss all three with the respective GMs. If AF can discuss the possibility, why cannot Dodger fans? I strongly doubt that AF trades for any of the three, but I think all three are worthy of a discussion. Again I predict that AF will re-sign JT, and JT and Rios will platoon in some fashion at 3B/DH for 2021. But I would not be shocked to see Arenado, Seager, or Bryant at 3B.
IMO, a more worthy discussion is DJLM. What if he agrees to the JT contract of four years ago? 4 years at $64MM. DJLM is a RH bat who can play 2nd, 3rd, or 1st. Maybe I will do just that.
Spot on analysis, Jeff! I like the idea of keeping JT around for an extra year or two, and letting him alternate between DH (yes, there will be a universal DH next year) and 3B, while Rios gains playing time. I think that AF and JT will come to an agreement, because it’s in both of their best interests. Besides, JT loves playing in LA. He is part of the community here and has been for a long time. He does not strike me as the kind of guy who is just about the money. He is happy here, and he is a huge favorite of the fan base, and a clubhouse leader. And he can still hit, not to mention his superb glove work in the playoffs. If Rios can keep improving at 3B, and lowers his swing and miss rate, watch out! Yes, it would be nice if we had stellar defense at 3B and SS. Yet, all those teams with Lindor, Machado, Arenado, etc, etc didn’t win the WS. We did! And our defense in the playoffs was pretty darn good, if I recall (except for one atrocious play at the end of game 4 of the WS, but we can forget about that one, right?). The point is, we are a powerhouse, and defense on the left side of the infield is not our highest priority. What is our highest priority? Let’s say it all together: “relief pitching!” Same as every year.
You might as well throw in Seager because he won’t sign playing third base!
Contrary to what some here have said about what it would take to get Lindor, this source says otherwise.
https://dodgersway.com/2020/11/13/dodgers-francisco-lindor-rumors-trade-packages/amp/3/
I’ve been reading some projections this morning, including the 2021 Baseball Fantasy Rankings. One Dodger in the Top 10. There are 7 SS in the top 25 and Corey Seager isn’t one of them. As I mentioned yesterday, Rios and Turner splitting time at 3rd projects well. Lux has mixed projections. Sites doing the evaluations have no idea how many games he might play but if he does play he projects well.
The language used by Law is a bit surprising but I did see, and note yesterday that Hoese is well down the list of prospects. Bellinger, Pollock, Muncy, Smith all project well. Obviously this is a solid team top to bottom. I have no predictions on any moves but I don’t really expect something big. Fine tune the well running machine and turn it loose. We will be favored again.
With all the trade talk going on, two things stuck out for me…
Kim Ng… Congrats to her and hope she has a smooth road. A friend and I ran into her at Dodger stadium in a place we shouldn’t have been (We loved doing that and it’s alot easier to explain to security the older you get). We had a fun 10 minute or so conversation about the Dodgers and how she was enjoying her job and it’s challenges.. She then commenced to direct us to the exit…
Last but not least, Dodger Rick’s use of Occam’s Razor… Very cool..
His takes were spot on also…
Good stuff Jeff. Hot stove season is always fun. I love JT. He has been a rock on this team. I remember he was signed as a free agent and wasn’t even projected to make the roster. And when he did, it was as a backup for Juan Uribe. He is about as clutch a hitter that has ever worn the Dodger uniform. He took over at 3rd in 2015 and has been the main man ever since. But over the last few years we keep losing him for 10 days at a time due to injury. His WAR over the last 3 seasons has dropped every year. And this year it was the lowest it has ever been at 1.3. Why? Injury. He missed 18 of the 60 games. Almost a 3rd of the season. He did play in all of the post season. But the first two series he was 2-18. He got cranked up a little against the Braves and then was back to the JT we all love against the Rays. In 2017 and 18 they lost him for long stretches. When he is in there and healthy, he is as good as any 3rd baseman in the league. But now, he is not in there as much as the team would like. I hope the DH stays in the league so he would be able to alternate between DH and 3rd. I think the only thing holding back Edwin Rios is a lack of consistent playing time. You put him out there close to every day and that hole in his swing is not going to be that big of a problem. Beaty played a lot more in 19 and with that kind of usage he is also a better hitter than he showed this year. And he had a penchant for some very dramatic hits. I have to believe that they are committed at least when spring starts to seeing what they are going to get out of Gavin Lux. If Lux flops in spring, then CT 3 is going to get the bulk of the time there unless they decide to bring someone else in. Not having a minor league season last year gives them little idea what to expect from the guys on that top 30 list. I think it is entirely possible that Hoese and Busch get a lot of playing time come spring. They still have to decide who to protect on the 40 man roster because of the rule 5 draft. Although a lot of projections seem to think that there will not be as many players picked off of rosters this year because of what happened. I see a lot of names being bandied about as possible trade chips bringing in players some think would be great fits in LA. Bum loves Torres. The thing is that the team who has the player has to be willing to trade him I do not see the Yanks parting ways with Torres. Since I live in Colorado I can tell you this because it has been in the news here. The Rockies have both Arenado and Story out there as possible trade candidates. There is also a lot of buzz about them non tendering David Dahl. Arenado has veto powers over any trade. Who will the Dodgers target in free agency or trade? Your guess is as good as mine. But from what I have read. The bullpen is the main target. They was diversity out of the pen as Andrew so succinctly put it. For now until after Turkey day, there will be little activity. And even Andrew said that because they went as far as they did they are behind the rest of the teams in thier off season planning. And watch out for the Mets. Cohen means business.
I am always astounded about the speculation surrounding the offseason, here and other places.
Fans are fans – they want the best for their teams and so engage in wishful thinking.
There is no way that the Dodgers are trading for Nolan Arenado.
1- He’s too expensive
2 – He doesn’t have a track record outside of Coors
3 – He’s the wrong side of 30
4 – The Rox won’t trade him to another team in the Division
5 – The Rox will want an arm and a leg for him
The Dodgers aren’t trading for Francisco Lindor either, although I think it’s more likely that they get Lindor than Arenado
1 – The Tribe will want an arm and a leg for him
2 – He won’t be worth the cost in prospects unless the Dodgers can extend him
3 – They will also need to extend Kershaw and Seager in 2022
4 – SS isn’t a position of need right now, and none of us knows if Seager will balk at moving to 3B
The Dodgers aren’t trading for Kris Bryant.
1 – He’s not a good 3B
2 – The Cubbies will want an arm and a leg for him
3 – They will need to extend him in 2022 along with Kershaw and Seager
4 – In 2020 he OPS’d .644. In 2018 he only hit 13 HR.
5 – He was injured much of the 2018 and 2020 seasons, raising questions about his durability
I am a believer in Occam’s Razor – that usually, the simplest solution to a problem is the right one. The Dodgers need a RH bat, one who can play 3B with Rios. That seems to fit Justin Turner to a T.
They need a 2B – it just so happens that their top prospect plays 2B – so see what Gavin Lux can do.
They need some relief help – well there are a lot of RPs available as free agents. They will consider resigning some of their own but will look at who’s available and sign a few for the right price.
Comments/Questions:
1) AC, when you listed the stats for those four guys against LHP above I wish you would have included Seager, Belli and Muncy. What do we care what handed the guys hit as long as we have some batters who can hit lefties. Maybe the three I mentioned are even worse, but it would have been interesting to see their stats as well.
2) Haven’t seen any negative pundit comments about Hoese………………………..until yesterday’s Keith Law chat. Not that his opinion is necessarily any better than anyone else’s, but this was the exchange on Hoese:
Nick: Do you think the Dodgers see Kody Hoese as their future starting third baseman, or do they need to find an answer post-Turner (whenever that is) elsewhere?
Keith Law: No, it’s not Hoese. He’s not very good, and he’s not a 3b.
He has had some positive things to say about Rios though.
3) Relievers – I’d like to add Colome to the list of Hendriks, Rosenthal, May. He’s a guy who gets it done without throwing 100 mph so would be a different look and that seems to be what AF is looking for.
1. I can give 199 Million reasons why Nolan will not opt-out. It’s still about the Benjamins.
2. I am a huge fan of Rios. He has worked hard to lose weight, improve footwork and is working as we speak with Barry Larkin. Any way you slice it, he has a HR every 10 AB’s and is IPS’ing in the high .900’s for his brief career. He deserves a shot.
3. I agree with Jeff on his defense. It is above average and he is determined to get even better.
Good column, Jeff.
I think people have read too much into the Justin Turner thing. I think the word that should be used with Turner is expectation, not priority. Pretty much everyone expects Turner to be back. The Dodgers want Turner back. Turner wants to be back. The fans want him back. End of discussion.
So, what are the Dodgers really looking to do. Ink a reliever or two, come up with a bullpen with different looks. Come up with another right handed hitter. Present a more balanced line-up.
Where would the right handed bat play? The outfield looks set, the DH isn’t a certainty at this point. You also have AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor, both righties. Pollock hits lefties well. Third? You have Turner and then Edwin Rios, a lefty. First? You have Max Muncy? Second? Gavin Lux, another lefty.
Second would seem to be the obvious position or DH. Does Andrew Friedman read the tea leaves and conclude that the DH is here to stay? I might think that. I actually liked it. Needs to happen. But, it’s a bargaining chip which adds a degree of uncertainty.
No, the Dodgers aren’t getting Nolan Arenado, not right now, maybe not ever.
Francisco Lindor? Doubtful. Too big a cost in prospects. Too much money to sign beyond this upcoming season. Need to sign Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger to long term extensions at some point.
Would Lindor play second? Maybe. I certainly wouldn’t ask Seager to move. Before somebody brings up the Alex Rodriquez move to third. Remember Derek Jeter didn’t move, a desperate Rodriquez did.
But if the Dodgers did lose well north of $100 million this year and Stan Kasten said he expects fans back at Dodger Stadium when the season begins, where are the Dodgers in terms of budget at this point?
Again, you might need to read the tea leaves.
What about Trevor Story? Maybe the Rockies are willing to part with him. Not the face of the Colorado franchise, but a pretty good right handed bat and I’m guessing he can play anywhere in the infield. Good power. Seen him hit more than a few out of Dodger Stadium and the guy can play defense. A package with Lux and a couple of prospects might work. Or the Rockies could say no to any discussion with a division rival, especially the Dodgers.
I like the idea of going after Hendricks, May and Rosenthal with the idea of signing a couple and bolstering the bullpen. But then again, when it comes to relievers nothing is certain.
It will be an interesting off-season. One, at this point, with more questions than answers.
JT hit.307 last year. Get it done. When Seager makes a quick one pitch out often we see JT purposely take a couple of pitches and work the count. They shouldn’t have a problem getting a 2 year deal done. I like Rios but I think it would be a huge drop off to the Dodgers offense. Yes JT will need more days off or time at either DH or 1B but this is a no brainer to me. The Dodgers need a guy who grinds AB’s and a guy who shows up the postseason.
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Sure Nolan would fit in nicely. I think he would eventually be just fine away from Coors. I do think he presses. Especially in big games and especially at Dodger Stadium. He might get over that as a Dodger. The Dodgers are not going to take on all that money and pay prospects a year after doing so with Mookie. The only way Nolan becomes a Dodger is opting out after the season and it’s still a long shot.
Well Kim Ng has finally got that GM job that she has been after for so many years. Ng, as many will recall was an assistant GM with the Dodgers from late 2001-2011.
Kim was first hired as an intern by the ChiSox while a student at the University of Chicago. She was hired full time in 1991 to become a special projects analyst. She was later promoted (1995) to be the Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 1995. Before becoming an Assistant GM with LAD, Ng was Assistant GM with NYY where she met Derek Jeter. And now Jeter has hired her for the GM position with the Miami Marlins.
While with Chicago, in 1995 Kim was the first woman to present an arbitration case in ML. The case was Alex Fernandez, and she won.
She is every bit as qualified as many of her male counterparts are. Congratulations to Kim Ng for breaking the woman’s glass ceiling in MLB. I wish her nothing but success, except when it comes to deals and games against the Dodgers.
The thought of Arenado coming to LA is growing on me, but the only way that happens is if he opts out. He wouldn’t do that unless he thought he would get something in the ballpark of that AAV. I think he absolutely would take a small pay cut to get out of Colorado and play for his hometown team, but it would be a small pay cut. If he and his agent got word on what AF might be willing to pay, and if it’s reasonably close to his current contract, he might decide to opt out. Yes, he’ll be walking away from a whole lotta money, but when you’re already talking about being paid in the hundreds of millions of stupid money dollars, at some point a player should decide what’s more important – the extra 15% in millions upon millions you’d be paid to play for an organization you despise and a team that is treading water, or the chance to play for the best organization in baseball and the team that was your boyhood dream of playing for.
As for the either/or scenario of paying either Nolan or the homegrown products when they hit free agency, that’s probably true … Unless … When I made the same point the other day it was assuming the CBT would be more or less the same in five years. Someone pointed out that it most likely wouldn’t be. When I was playing around with the numbers you posted in the financials post from last week and doing some hypotheticals, we would be able to pay all the pre FA stars and just stay under the current cap. If the cap changes or the ceiling is higher, I suppose it’s possible the Dodgers can pay Nolan AND pay the Bellinger/Beuhler/Urias bills when they come due. Then again, if the CBT just gets higher, it will probably mirror the rising AAVs for free agents. Who knows what things will look like in a few years. I can guarantee AF is thinking about it, though.
Rios/Turner to Hoese seems reasonable. None of those guys are a particularly good glove, though. With Lux having the yips, we’d face the prospect of the entire infield being subpar defensively. And in a couple of years, assuming Muncy leaves, you’ll need a bad at 1rst.
Thanks for the musings.
JT makes a lot of sense as a bridge for our current 3B situation (Rios and Hoese). Also, the Dodgers seem to make sense from JT’s perspective. As you suggest, the DH situation and $ are the main factors. I concur that $10M/yr for 2 years is a generous offer. I would not be surprised to see $8M/yr ($16M) to be the final figure.
I agree Jeff with all your points. Arenado is too old and too expensive even if we didn’t have to give up prospects. I think signing JT and seeing how Hoese progresses is the best plan. Unless Rios gets more disciplined with better pitch recognition I don’t know if he’s an every day player. Can’t wait to see if Lux is the player we thought he’d become. Also excited to Price pitch next year